So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
Reflected in the fact the Tories still have a big lead in the polls despite being split from top to bottom and having just suffered the two heaviest defeats of any government since 1688.
And on top of that, in 16 days we have a massive economic upheaval to contend with.
We're screwed, aren't we?
1688 is a useful precedent. The House resolved itself into a committee and simply sacked James II and appointed William and Mary. It could do the same to revoke Article 50 tomorrow.
If it was Southwest Airlines and American Airlines and not Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines five months apart, the 737 Max fleet would’ve been grounded by Sunday evening, according to senior U.S. industry officials and aviation safety experts
The system is borken. AIUI, internationally, we rely on the regulation authority of the country a plane manufacturer is in to certify (accept) an aircraft type. In the case of Boeing, that's the FAA. Local regulatory authorities (e.g. EASA) just validate that certification - they don't have the information to certify the type fully.
A decade or so back, the FAA granted Boeing even more latitude to approve themselves - and the two types they have completed under that new system, the 787 and now the 737Max, had significant issues. In the former case it did not cost lives; in the latter case there is reason to believe it has.
The FAA need to up their game. IMV their statement after the LionAir crash was utterly wrong-headed for a regulator.
Lobbying power of Boeing?
You can bet if these were non American planes the FAA would already have ordered their grounding.
The FAA should man up and tell Boeing what to do. It isn’t going to do it itself unless ordered.
If it was Southwest Airlines and American Airlines and not Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines five months apart, the 737 Max fleet would’ve been grounded by Sunday evening, according to senior U.S. industry officials and aviation safety experts
That’s a good piece, that explains the issues well for a wider audience. It’s quite possible Boeing have now pushed the 1960’s design of the 737 past its limit, if the Ethiopian accident is related to the MCAS software there’s going to be calls for the plane to be re-certified as a new type - grandfather rights having been used for too long on what’s clearly a brand new aircraft.
Faint echoes of Nimrod 2000 here.
Sometimes a plane design has simply had its day. I think Boeing simply likes to trade on the brand of the 737, and understandably so given how commercially successful it’s been in getting new orders.
It doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Airbus over the A380 (although a very different type of aircraft, of course).
Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?)
There was previously a no-no-deal, no-fucking-around majority, which is presumably still there, so don't they amend the No Deal one to be "If there's no deal ask for an extension, the end"? I know there's some doubt over whether the EU would grant an extension with no concrete alternative plan, but they can come back to that later once they've moved the ball up the pitch a bit.
Then TMay can merrily have her extra Deal vote again in a week or two, which she'll presumably lose again.
Once everyone's accepted that there will be a delay, the Remainers can appeal to pro-deal Tories to back the referendum to end the uncertainty and get brexit done (or not).
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big. 2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down. 3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.
Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default
I’m still not sure she has a plan for anything past the next vote in the Commons. The deal went down yesterday, no deal will go down today and a delay will go down tomorrow. Then what?
The deal is as dead as a dodo (as it has been since December), and the only chance of a concession from the EU is if they genuinely believe that no deal is the alternative.
The sensible way out from here is probably an election, but neither of the two largest parties are going to be able to write a manifesto chapter on the biggest issue of the day that gets majority support among their own candidates!
Oh, and it’s the Chancellor’s Spring Statement today after PMQs, just to add a little more into the chaos.
Possibly the worst way to have No Deal Brexit is to have a government and commons so divided amongst themselves, that no one can control the consequences.
There is an ocean of difference between a planned WTO No Deal Brexit, and an uncontrolled and chaotic crashout one with no one at the wheel.
Even No Dealers should support a long 21 month extension, with a new government and time to prepare, but they won't.
No-one sane can support a 21-month extension with our current Parliament. We will just have MPs breathe a sigh of relief, spend 20 months dicking around - then have a month of utter chaos.
Meanwhile, business goes WTF??? and moves elsewhere.
Conservative Party's fabled Men in Grey Helmets need to descend into the bunker to tell May "time to go". She is killing jobs, she is killing the Union, she is killing her party. What other piece of mischief does she think is left undone to justify her limpet-like grip on Number 10?
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
But that isn’t May’s problem. She never went to the members and even if she had she still probably would have beaten Leadsome. And Cameron was chosen by the members despite being a more modernist choice.
Really, the membership and activists should be part of the caucus, as should registered supporters and MPs and other elected members, but not the only part.
And the MPs and association chairs should engage much more meaningfully with the members and activists. And there should be far tighter rules against entryism.
I suspect that Leadsome would have beaten May in a members vote had it got that far. That was how my mother, a lifelong mainstream member, was going to vote, but we never will know.
Both Tony Blair and Dave Cameron were sensible modernising centrists when elected by members, later going off the rails. They were chosen in similar circumstances by parties sick of consecutive election humiliations. Leaders chosen by members in other circumstances have been universal flops. Kinnock, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague.
Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
But it was close enough for doubts. And it is a big decision with wide ranging effects. It's just British common sense to have a rethink before we do anything we might regret.
I’m still not sure she has a plan for anything past the next vote in the Commons. The deal went down yesterday, no deal will go down today and a delay will go down tomorrow. Then what?
The deal is as dead as a dodo (as it has been since December), and the only chance of a concession from the EU is if they genuinely believe that no deal is the alternative.
The sensible way out from here is probably an election, but neither of the two largest parties are going to be able to write a manifesto chapter on the biggest issue of the day that gets majority support among their own candidates!
Oh, and it’s the Chancellor’s Spring Statement today after PMQs, just to add a little more into the chaos.
Possibly the worst way to have No Deal Brexit is to have a government and commons so divided amongst themselves, that no one can control the consequences.
There is an ocean of difference between a planned WTO No Deal Brexit, and an uncontrolled and chaotic crashout one with no one at the wheel.
Even No Dealers should support a long 21 month extension, with a new government and time to prepare, but they won't.
No-one sane can support a 21-month extension with our current Parliament. We will just have MPs breathe a sigh of relief, spend 20 months dicking around - then have a month of utter chaos.
Meanwhile, business goes WTF??? and moves elsewhere.
Conservative Party's fabled Men in Grey Helmets need to descend into the bunker to tell May "time to go". She is killing jobs, she is killing the Union, she is killing her party. What other piece of mischief does she think is left undone to justify her limpet-like grip on Number 10?
The 21-month extension could work in theory, but would require very careful management in practice if we are to avoid being back in exactly the same place 20 months later.
It certainly requires a new government though, and probably a new Parliament given the current one can’t agree on anything.
I’m still not sure she has a plan for anything past the next vote in the Commons. The deal went down yesterday, no deal will go down today and a delay will go down tomorrow. Then what?
The deal is as dead as a dodo (as it has been since December), and the only chance of a concession from the EU is if they genuinely believe that no deal is the alternative.
The sensible way out from here is probably an election, but neither of the two largest parties are going to be able to write a manifesto chapter on the biggest issue of the day that gets majority support among their own candidates!
Oh, and it’s the Chancellor’s Spring Statement today after PMQs, just to add a little more into the chaos.
Possibly the worst way to have No Deal Brexit is to have a government and commons so divided amongst themselves, that no one can control the consequences.
There is an ocean of difference between a planned WTO No Deal Brexit, and an uncontrolled and chaotic crashout one with no one at the wheel.
Even No Dealers should support a long 21 month extension, with a new government and time to prepare, but they won't.
No-one sane can support a 21-month extension with our current Parliament. We will just have MPs breathe a sigh of relief, spend 20 months dicking around - then have a month of utter chaos.
Meanwhile, business goes WTF??? and moves elsewhere.
Conservative Party's fabled Men in Grey Helmets need to descend into the bunker to tell May "time to go". She is killing jobs, she is killing the Union, she is killing her party. What other piece of mischief does she think is left undone to justify her limpet-like grip on Number 10?
The 21-month extension could work in theory, but would require very careful management in practice if we are to avoid being back in exactly the same place 20 months later.
It certainly requires a new government though, and probably a new Parliament given the current one can’t agree on anything.
But any new parliament would comprise the same people and it's not as though theyd feel bound by whatever they stood under for reelection.
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
But that isn’t May’s problem. She never went to the members and even if she had she still probably would have beaten Leadsome. And Cameron was chosen by the members despite being a more modernist choice.
Really, the membership and activists should be part of the caucus, as should registered supporters and MPs and other elected members, but not the only part.
And the MPs and association chairs should engage much more meaningfully with the members and activists. And there should be far tighter rules against entryism.
I suspect that Leadsome would have beaten May in a members vote had it got that far. That was how my mother, a lifelong mainstream member, was going to vote, but we never will know.
Both Tony Blair and Dave Cameron were sensible modernising centrists when elected by members, later going off the rails. They were chosen in similar circumstances by parties sick of consecutive election humiliations. Leaders chosen by members in other circumstances have been universal flops. Kinnock, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
But it was close enough for doubts. And it is a big decision with wide ranging effects. It's just British common sense to have a rethink before we do anything we might regret.
Nope. You want a second shot. And you’re looking for an excuse to call one.
Why do you think that’s not a totally transparent play to others?
Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
But that isn’t May’s problem. She never went to the members and even if she had she still probably would have beaten Leadsome. And Cameron was chosen by the members despite being a more modernist choice.
Really, the membership and activists should be part of the caucus, as should registered supporters and MPs and other elected members, but not the only part.
And the MPs and association chairs should engage much more meaningfully with the members and activists. And there should be far tighter rules against entryism.
I suspect that Leadsome would have beaten May in a members vote had it got that far. That was how my mother, a lifelong mainstream member, was going to vote, but we never will know.
Both Tony Blair and Dave Cameron were sensible modernising centrists when elected by members, later going off the rails. They were chosen in similar circumstances by parties sick of consecutive election humiliations. Leaders chosen by members in other circumstances have been universal flops. Kinnock, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
Reflected in the fact the Tories still have a big lead in the polls despite being split from top to bottom and having just suffered the two heaviest defeats of any government since 1688.
And on top of that, in 16 days we have a massive economic upheaval to contend with.
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
Reflected in the fact the Tories still have a big lead in the polls despite being split from top to bottom and having just suffered the two heaviest defeats of any government since 1688.
And on top of that, in 16 days we have a massive economic upheaval to contend with.
Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?
I don’t think he’s signed it but just added his name at the last minute? Looks like there is no room for his signature between Baker and Hart
Never mind that, Iain Duncan Smith appears to be believe his name is Iain Duncas Smith, and his signature is in a script I do not recognise - Armenian?
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
The same margin in a single seat would result in a majority of around 2,000-2,500. It would be on the target list of the second place party.
On the no deal motion, May is being provocative with the wording, adding in the bit about it remaining the default option. I would expect a widely supported amendment will be tabled amending the wording into something clearer; let's see if the Speaker takes it.
On the no deal motion, May is being provocative with the wording, adding in the bit about it remaining the default option. I would expect a widely supported amendment will be tabled amending the wording into something clearer; let's see if the Speaker takes it.
They can amend it to ban sunset tonight, but it will still go dark...
Well there's a new thread but it only appears on the main site, not in the Vanilla one, and I can't get the comments section to appear. Good luck to whoever comes first!
Where is today's Arthur Greenwood? He wasn't Leader of the Labour Party at the time either, was he. The situation really needs someone to stand up "tell it like it is' and provide some leadership.
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
No, Vanilla Forums.
Vanilla COMMUNITY.
Try to access politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com and you will fail
On the no deal motion, May is being provocative with the wording, adding in the bit about it remaining the default option. I would expect a widely supported amendment will be tabled amending the wording into something clearer; let's see if the Speaker takes it.
They can amend it to ban sunset tonight, but it will still go dark...
Amending human law is considerably easier than the laws of nature
For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.
I am genuinely concerned how many of my fellow party members not only consider no deal to be a problem, positively desire one. No matter how many times the million and one systems and agreements at an EU level that exist to facilitate trade and movment not only within the EU but outside it risk massive disruption. How No Deal puts us at the mercy of the goodwill of the EU to allow us to use their systems and that will only ever be when it gives them a material advantage. That WTO rules are a default, something you fall back on in the absence of a trade agreement. That even things like our passports and driving licenses are recognised globally by treaties that exist at an EU level and our inclusion is as a member of the EU.
But it doesn’t matter. Project Fear shot their load during the referendum, and the fact that Godzilla has not come maurading down the Thames as promised breathing fire on everything in his wake, means that they just do not believe it.
For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.
I am genuinely concerned how many of my fellow party members not only consider no deal to be a problem, positively desire one. No matter how many times the million and one systems and agreements at an EU level that exist to facilitate trade and movment not only within the EU but outside it risk massive disruption. How No Deal puts us at the mercy of the goodwill of the EU to allow us to use their systems and that will only ever be when it gives them a material advantage. That WTO rules are a default, something you fall back on in the absence of a trade agreement. That even things like our passports and driving licenses are recognised globally by treaties that exist at an EU level and our inclusion is as a member of the EU.
But it doesn’t matter. Project Fear shot their load during the referendum, and the fact that Godzilla has not come maurading down the Thames as promised breathing fire on everything in his wake, means that they just do not believe it.
Or they do believe it but think it would be cathartic (for others, of course) or profitable (for themselves, of course).
At the airport, waiting to board. Overhearing a business traveller explaining the impact of no deal tariffs to a colleague, who expresses surprise and understandable concern.
We underestimate how little attention most people have yet paid to the impact an abrupt no-transition departure from the EU will have.
Any current poll leads will disappear as quickly as Cameron did, as he hummed himself back into No 10 the morning after the referendum.
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
Reflected in the fact the Tories still have a big lead in the polls despite being split from top to bottom and having just suffered the two heaviest defeats of any government since 1688.
And on top of that, in 16 days we have a massive economic upheaval to contend with.
Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
And, by extension, the reason we have so many nutty MPs is because of our voting system with its safe seats and their selection effectively by a handful of those local obsessive activists.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
No. The perception will be that the Remainers didn’t get the answer they wanted so not only are they having a revote but they are trying to tip the scales even further
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
Reflected in the fact the Tories still have a big lead in the polls despite being split from top to bottom and having just suffered the two heaviest defeats of any government since 1688.
And on top of that, in 16 days we have a massive economic upheaval to contend with.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
It was legitimate, but not overwhelming.
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
The same margin in a single seat would result in a majority of around 2,000-2,500. It would be on the target list of the second place party.
Err.. yeah, whatever.
And apples are kind of like green oranges, just a bit firmer and grow in slightly colder climates.
The US Govt has its head a long way up Boeing's ass, check the extra hoops SpaceX are having to jump through compared to Starliner
IMO that's unfair, and a conspiracy theory too far. In some cases, SpaceX *asked* for the extra hoops - e.g. an extra launch abort test. In others, it's because their offering is very different to Boeing's, and the issues they face are rather different.
They're also developing in very different ways: Boeing are very much doing it via paperwork and analysis, whereas SpaceX are doing it via actual launches (to a degree; of course both do analysis and tests; it's just they weight them differently.)
In reality, Boeing are being squeezed with Starliner as well - the problems they face are just different. Which is why Boeing haven't even done their unmanned test yet.
If the regulators and NASA really wanted Boeing to win this particular competition, they'd be winning.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
No. The perception will be that the Remainers didn’t get the answer they wanted so not only are they having a revote but they are trying to tip the scales even further
The perception at the moment is that the vote was an establishment stitch up by rich Brexit supporters and their stooges in the media. A new vote needs to be a lot cleaner.
Talking of weather, Wind is worst in the UK in a band that goes from Liverpool to Cleethorpes, Ripon to Leicester. Scotland and southern England relatively calm right now
The US Govt has its head a long way up Boeing's ass, check the extra hoops SpaceX are having to jump through compared to Starliner
And, as the Wash Post points out, Trump has always had a personal interest in aviation, with previous tweets about pilots and flying, owning his own aircraft and previously owning an airline. Shortly before he was elected he threatened to cancel one of Boeing's contracts, considered nominating his personal pilot to run the FAA. You can bet he's posing as expert-in-chief.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
No. The perception will be that the Remainers didn’t get the answer they wanted so not only are they having a revote but they are trying to tip the scales even further
The perception at the moment is that the vote was an establishment stitch up by rich Brexit supporters and their stooges in the media. A new vote needs to be a lot cleaner.
Your perception. I'd back a new vote as we need a way out of this current mess, but a lot of the reasons use for justifying one a extremely weak and reliant on hyper partisan assumptions.
Why would that spook Brexiteers? Those plans look reasonable enough and should have been announced two years ago.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
Its not just the left wing opportunists or conservative ideologues. After all, supposed labour backers for the deal never materialise and they are not making that choice because of Corbyn, and Tory remainers also refuse to back it.
Yes the points made are predominantly true, since if leavers all agreed to leave we would, but there are other elements not just Corbyn's cynical push for a GE and conservative demagoguery.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
Talking of weather, Wind is worst in the UK in a band that goes from Liverpool to Cleethorpes, Ripon to Leicester. Scotland and southern England relatively calm right now
Looking at windy.com
A fresh north-westerly in south Devon at the moment. Dog didn't hang around long before wanting to retreat to a snug sofa....
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
Its not just the left wing opportunists or conservative ideologues. After all, supposed labour backers for the deal never materialise and they are not making that choice because of Corbyn, and Tory remainers also refuse to back it.
Yes the points made are predominantly true, since if leavers all agreed to leave we would, but there are other elements not just Corbyn's cynical push for a GE and conservative demagoguery.
The Labour leavers would have put up had the government been within shooting distance. They were never likely to add their votes simply to reduce a massive government defeat into a large one.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
£1500 on a new VW Golf...
That should put the frighteners on some.
VW should have ceased to exist following the emissions scandal. The power of Germany. Compare to the reaction of British authorities to Rolls-Royce cheating.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.
No. The perception will be that the Remainers didn’t get the answer they wanted so not only are they having a revote but they are trying to tip the scales even further
The perception at the moment is that the vote was an establishment stitch up by rich Brexit supporters and their stooges in the media. A new vote needs to be a lot cleaner.
With respect, being on PB and politically savvy is not the norm. I'd suggest most of the population who voted leave don't perceive that at all. They might well think that it has been handled catastrophically by the establishment and might think it'd now be better off to stay in. They do think that politicians are a bunch of useless c@~7s who don't want to leave the EU and are sick of the sight of the likes of Blair and Major popping up telling them they got it wrong and need to vote again. A second referendum is probably a good idea now that our politicians have been shown to be shambolically inept, but that has to come with a GE as well.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
Its not just the left wing opportunists or conservative ideologues. After all, supposed labour backers for the deal never materialise and they are not making that choice because of Corbyn, and Tory remainers also refuse to back it.
Yes the points made are predominantly true, since if leavers all agreed to leave we would, but there are other elements not just Corbyn's cynical push for a GE and conservative demagoguery.
The Labour leavers would have put up had the government been within shooting distance. They were never likely to add their votes simply to reduce a massive government defeat into a large one.
A lame excuse on their part. If they think no deal or referendum are awful outcomes and they are prepared to back the deal, show some leadership and some spine and do it.
One could easily turn it around and say if the so called dozens thinking of backing it had announced they were going to, would that have led to more Tories or even the DUP thinking differently as they realised it would be close?
Perhaps not. But 'I would have backed it but I knew it would lose so voted for something I dont believe in' is not a sign of political courage, leadership or integrity.
So we could get some ministerial resignations to spice things up...
I dont know why they dont just make every vote a free vote now - on Brexit it is treated that way practically and they have no control over their members so cannot punish them.
Find it weird that so much focus is on the hardline Leavers, whereas the majority of MPs opposing the deal are pro-EU.
It's ironic that those who love and hate the EU found themselves voting the same way.
The focus is on them because at least they purportedly want to leave. Continually sputtering that they do just not like this is becoming very unconvincing. Its actions not motives that count, if they want us to remain in the EU rather than leave in this manner then they are pro EU remainers too.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
£1500 on a new VW Golf...
That should put the frighteners on some.
Blue passport will make everything ok.
So long as no-one realises Croatians get blue passports and cheaper Golfs.
Find it weird that so much focus is on the hardline Leavers, whereas the majority of MPs opposing the deal are pro-EU.
It's ironic that those who love and hate the EU found themselves voting the same way.
The deal was killed by Leavers. If Leavers had collectively backed the deal, enough erstwhile Remainers would have been persuadable to get it over the line.
Find it weird that so much focus is on the hardline Leavers, whereas the majority of MPs opposing the deal are pro-EU.
It's ironic that those who love and hate the EU found themselves voting the same way.
The deal was killed by Leavers. If Leavers had collectively backed the deal, enough erstwhile Remainers would have been persuadable to get it over the line.
Not killed by leavers. The ERG simply changed its named to European Remain Group without us noticing.
Leave with no deal. Tell the Remainers we stayed in. Give them EU style passports and flags for them to wave. Tell them our borders are wide open. Sack them all and replace them with minimum wage Eastern European car washers. Re-employ them as carers, fruit pickers, cleaners and car washers. Get on with life.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
£1500 on a new VW Golf...
That should put the frighteners on some.
VW should have ceased to exist following the emissions scandal. The power of Germany. Compare to the reaction of British authorities to Rolls-Royce cheating.
Find it weird that so much focus is on the hardline Leavers, whereas the majority of MPs opposing the deal are pro-EU.
It's ironic that those who love and hate the EU found themselves voting the same way.
The deal was killed by Leavers. If Leavers had collectively backed the deal, enough erstwhile Remainers would have been persuadable to get it over the line.
To be fair it is not difficult to see why 'No Deal' leavers would vote against this, but, party stuff apart, it is not easy to see the fundamental difficulties TMs deal would have with the Labour position - as Kenneth Clarke kindly pointed out
Find it weird that so much focus is on the hardline Leavers, whereas the majority of MPs opposing the deal are pro-EU.
It's ironic that those who love and hate the EU found themselves voting the same way.
The deal was killed by Leavers. If Leavers had collectively backed the deal, enough erstwhile Remainers would have been persuadable to get it over the line.
Not killed by leavers. The ERG simply changed its named to European Remain Group without us noticing.
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
£1500 on a new VW Golf...
That should put the frighteners on some.
VW should have ceased to exist following the emissions scandal. The power of Germany. Compare to the reaction of British authorities to Rolls-Royce cheating.
This shows how brilliant NCAP have been at forcing safety standards up: less than a decade earlier, both these cars scored well.
The world has changed. The final sentence in the initial section of your link indicates the extent to which VW was a corrupt organisation. Arguably one might say that the cheating worked in that it allowed the VAG to cement a dominant position in the European auto market. One could reasonably conclude that systemic lawbreaking is an effective business practice if the cost is significantly less than the benefit.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
£1500 on a new VW Golf...
That should put the frighteners on some.
The VW dealership, for a start. Especially when the other dealerships nearby have £500 off a Focus, Ceed or Mazda3.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
It should spook them because of the reaction of the electorate. You know, the people who vote in elections. Food prices will rise is not a vote winner. Still, some inflation will harm those on fixed incomes. The retired voted for it, they can enjoy it.
£1500 on a new VW Golf...
That should put the frighteners on some.
VW should have ceased to exist following the emissions scandal. The power of Germany. Compare to the reaction of British authorities to Rolls-Royce cheating.
This shows how brilliant NCAP have been at forcing safety standards up: less than a decade earlier, both these cars scored well.
The world has changed. The final sentence in the initial section of your link indicates the extent to which VW was a corrupt organisation. Arguably one might say that the cheating worked in that it allowed the VAG to cement a dominant position in the European auto market. One could reasonably conclude that systemic lawbreaking is an effective business practice if the cost is significantly less than the benefit.
I'd argue it wasn't much different to when the other manufacturers made 'mistakes'.
It's odd how those 'mistakes' were always to their benefit.
They did it because, whilst the regulations were strict, the testing was incredibly lax. The answer is to increase the independent testing. As I said, Euro NCAP is probably a good model to base a new organisation on.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
Comments
You can bet if these were non American planes the FAA would already have ordered their grounding.
The FAA should man up and tell Boeing what to do. It isn’t going to do it itself unless ordered.
Faint echoes of Nimrod 2000 here.
Sometimes a plane design has simply had its day. I think Boeing simply likes to trade on the brand of the 737, and understandably so given how commercially successful it’s been in getting new orders.
It doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Airbus over the A380 (although a very different type of aircraft, of course).
Then TMay can merrily have her extra Deal vote again in a week or two, which she'll presumably lose again.
Once everyone's accepted that there will be a delay, the Remainers can appeal to pro-deal Tories to back the referendum to end the uncertainty and get brexit done (or not).
I wouldn’t describe the winning margin - well over a million votes - as narrow and nor do I think there is any counter scenario with a plausible intervention or non-intervention that would have eliminated it, despite some overspending by Leave and Russian trolls playing at the edges.
It was VL and Cummings that overwhelmingly swung it, and the electorate voted for it on its merits (or the EU’s demerits if you prefer).
Meanwhile, business goes WTF??? and moves elsewhere.
Conservative Party's fabled Men in Grey Helmets need to descend into the bunker to tell May "time to go". She is killing jobs, she is killing the Union, she is killing her party. What other piece of mischief does she think is left undone to justify her limpet-like grip on Number 10?
No, Vanilla Forums.
Both Tony Blair and Dave Cameron were sensible modernising centrists when elected by members, later going off the rails. They were chosen in similar circumstances by parties sick of consecutive election humiliations. Leaders chosen by members in other circumstances have been universal flops. Kinnock, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, William Hague.
But it does seem a bit like trying to appeal to both mob and Senate.
It certainly requires a new government though, and probably a new Parliament given the current one can’t agree on anything.
Nope. You want a second shot. And you’re looking for an excuse to call one.
Why do you think that’s not a totally transparent play to others?
Quite the storm last night. Still noisy now, but the wind has died down somewhat. Hopefully it'll be calmer soon.
Dear me. I hope I'm never that desperate...
Betfair have 14 markets up for the Australian Grand Prix
Vettel 2/1 and Hamilton 5/2 are favourites to win the race.
And I don't see anyone capable of doing so.
The genuinely independent ones are the NTSB, and they are probably looking at the black boxes from the crashed plane today.
Try to access politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com and you will fail
But it doesn’t matter. Project Fear shot their load during the referendum, and the fact that Godzilla has not come maurading down the Thames as promised breathing fire on everything in his wake, means that they just do not believe it.
https://www.bbc.com/weather/2158177
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/ASXX0075:1:AS
We underestimate how little attention most people have yet paid to the impact an abrupt no-transition departure from the EU will have.
Any current poll leads will disappear as quickly as Cameron did, as he hummed himself back into No 10 the morning after the referendum.
Another hyperbolic luvvie.
And apples are kind of like green oranges, just a bit firmer and grow in slightly colder climates.
They're also developing in very different ways: Boeing are very much doing it via paperwork and analysis, whereas SpaceX are doing it via actual launches (to a degree; of course both do analysis and tests; it's just they weight them differently.)
In reality, Boeing are being squeezed with Starliner as well - the problems they face are just different. Which is why Boeing haven't even done their unmanned test yet.
If the regulators and NASA really wanted Boeing to win this particular competition, they'd be winning.
Wind is worst in the UK in a band that goes from Liverpool to Cleethorpes, Ripon to Leicester. Scotland and southern England relatively calm right now
Looking at windy.com
Shame. Rain during practice means there's a chance a daft hundreds or thousands to one bet on fastest driver can come off.
Mr. Recidivist, that's certainly one perspective.
"BRITAIN’S PARLIAMENT has once again demonstrated that it is unable to swallow the hard realities of leaving the European Union, as opposed to the fantasies that were peddled to voters when they voted for an exit nearly three years ago."
The impasse results from a broad failure of political leadership. Ms. May might have been able to put together a centrist majority behind a Brexit formula that minimized the break with Brussels, had she been willing to spurn the Conservative Party hard-liners. But she never tried. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, for his part, made no effort to find a solution but instead has angled to bring down Ms. May’s government and force a general election.
For the embattled prime minister and other responsible actors, the central challenge in any election or further parliamentary debate is overcoming the demagoguery of those on the Conservative right and Mr. Corbyn’s left who insist, against all evidence, that Britain can make a clean break with the continent while simultaneously preserving its economic health and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, which depends on an open border with the Irish republic. The refusal by Conservative ideologues and left-wing opportunists to abandon those unsustainable positions explains most of what has gone wrong in British politics during the past several years."
Yes the points made are predominantly true, since if leavers all agreed to leave we would, but there are other elements not just Corbyn's cynical push for a GE and conservative demagoguery.
That is, however, a strong argument and getting stronger.
That should put the frighteners on some.
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1105740435119587328
So we could get some ministerial resignations to spice things up...
One could easily turn it around and say if the so called dozens thinking of backing it had announced they were going to, would that have led to more Tories or even the DUP thinking differently as they realised it would be close?
Perhaps not. But 'I would have backed it but I knew it would lose so voted for something I dont believe in' is not a sign of political courage, leadership or integrity.
It's ironic that those who love and hate the EU found themselves voting the same way.
Tell the Remainers we stayed in.
Give them EU style passports and flags for them to wave.
Tell them our borders are wide open.
Sack them all and replace them with minimum wage Eastern European car washers.
Re-employ them as carers, fruit pickers, cleaners and car washers.
Get on with life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_emissions_scandal#Previous_defeat_device_cases
And indeed, how many aside from VW group have subsequently been discovered to be doing it.
The answer is to have *proper* independent testing of cars, a little like Euro NCAP for safety.
BTW, several cars have in recent years got *zero* stars for Euro NCAP - like the 2017 Fiat Punto and 2018 Fiat Panda. IMO they should be banned.
https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/fiat/punto/29849
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/fiat/panda/105415/fiat-panda-gets-shocking-zero-star-ncap-crash-test-rating
This shows how brilliant NCAP have been at forcing safety standards up: less than a decade earlier, both these cars scored well.
She won't like that! Ms. May.
She's a Mrs and proud of it.....
It's odd how those 'mistakes' were always to their benefit.
They did it because, whilst the regulations were strict, the testing was incredibly lax. The answer is to increase the independent testing. As I said, Euro NCAP is probably a good model to base a new organisation on.
https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1105728975119233024