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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in offi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,028
    First :smiley:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928
    Absolutely nailed it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    It has been the case for awhile with regards May.

    Time for a vote of no confidence in Bercow Baggins

    He'd survive easily.

    The anti-referendum amendment had sweet FA to do with the substantive motion. Of course it shouldn't be called.

    That may well be sound, but no doubt many examples can be found of allowed amendments which had FA to do with the substantive motion. It could well be another example of right decision for wrong reason.

    It does seem awfully random what will and won't be allowed, and I have no idea how he decides on these things (on things other than Brexit his own politics will be less apparent), but the rules seem to give him total discretion so that's that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Scott_P said:
    Haha. That is a good one.

    Bercow is very much looking forward to being a remainer hero, but sometimes he can still be right about things of course.
    GIN1138 said:

    A footnote is that Oliver used to be the thinking man's Brexiteer, to the point that we agreed to write a book together called "Double Vision on Europe", in which we'd agree what the facts were and put our alternative pro- and anti-EU views on what conclusion should be drawn (we spiked it when he was promoted to the Shadow Cabinet and no longer could express independent views). He's now in predominantly Remainer company, presumably because he shares their horror at No Deal.
    You and Mr Poll Tax wanted to write a book?

    And who exactly did you think would be stupid enough to want to read it nevermind wasting their money buying it?
    A bit unkind. Perhaps it was for the joy of creating something than whether others would care for it?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    I can't see the EU granting time for Benn, Cooper and Letwin to strut about like they mean something
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 318
    kle4 said:

    It has been the case for awhile with regards May.

    Time for a vote of no confidence in Bercow Baggins

    He'd survive easily.

    The anti-referendum amendment had sweet FA to do with the substantive motion. Of course it shouldn't be called.

    That may well be sound, but no doubt many examples can be found of allowed amendments which had FA to do with the substantive motion. It could well be another example of right decision for wrong reason.

    It does seem awfully random what will and won't be allowed, and I have no idea how he decides on these things (on things other than Brexit his own politics will be less apparent), but the rules seem to give him total discretion so that's that.
    I like this.

    Amendment to have a referendum - yeah ok that's relevant
    Amendment not to have a referendum - no that's completely off topic.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,307
    I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.

    What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”

    In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.

    The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).

    Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,135
    I see Bercow has selected the Bryant no MV3 amendment - was odds on that he would!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,428
    edited March 14
    TMay's doing a great job.

    Once some doofus calls a referendum you take away the freedom of the government to do whatever it thinks best. She's made a reasonable stab at negotiating something that's as close to the promises made by the Leave campaign as the existence of an external reality will allow, and she's letting parliament decide whether it wants it, which it doesn't, because the promises made by the Leave campaign were retarded and the people involved are nuts.

    In office but not in power is the correct positioning.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,200
    What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333
    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,339
    Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.
  • George is always right.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?

    I don't think there's any solution unless you relax the constraint that n > 2.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Scott_P said:
    It's not huge because in distasteful parlance shooters are still active, and they are powerful shooters
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,395
    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    Then maybe she should call an election* and we can replace this lot with another lot who will agree on something.

    *I know FTPA, but the opposition can't really refuse, as we saw last time.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333
    Brom said:

    Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.

    Free vote, I guess?

    Weird for Wollaston to put it forward without Labour being on board though, especially since presumably one of the indicative votes next week would be for 2nd ref, if that goes through.

    Only explanations I can think of are either:

    1. TIG really believes that Labour will never whip for a 2nd ref
    2. TIG cares more about embarrassing Corbyn than getting a 2nd ref.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,301
    I can see Bercow accepting MV3 but not MV4, on the basis that four times is stretching Erskine-May too far.

    Which would be faintly hilarious if MV3 then fails narrowly.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440

    Brom said:

    Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.

    Free vote, I guess?

    Weird for Wollaston to put it forward without Labour being on board though, especially since presumably one of the indicative votes next week would be for 2nd ref, if that goes through.

    Only explanations I can think of are either:

    1. TIG really believes that Labour will never whip for a 2nd ref
    2. TIG cares more about embarrassing Corbyn than getting a 2nd ref.
    Tig know there's no parliament majority for it so they can propose on principle
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,214
    Victim once more of thread expiry. May does have options but isn't willing to explore them.
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The DUP won't just flip because we're running out of time though.

    Exactly and the number of Labour rebels seem to be holding steady. There are probably the numbers to pass a soft Brexit in the CU+SM space. May needs to change the Political Statement and she should get two thirds of her MPS and the bulk of Labour to support it. But it would split her party and so she sticks to Plan A to grim death.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Scott_P said:
    Cheap shrunken heads and rugby 7s players!
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,339

    I can see Bercow accepting MV3 but not MV4, on the basis that four times is stretching Erskine-May too far.

    Which would be faintly hilarious if MV3 then fails narrowly.

    Think he'll have to accept it if it fails narrowly. Momentum would be with May. But I have my doubts it will be that close judging by noises from ERG and DUP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    FF43 said:

    Victim once more of thread expiry. May does have options but isn't willing to explore them.

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The DUP won't just flip because we're running out of time though.

    Exactly and the number of Labour rebels seem to be holding steady. There are probably the numbers to pass a soft Brexit in the CU+SM space. May needs to change the Political Statement and she should get two thirds of her MPS and the bulk of Labour to support it. But it would split her party and so she sticks to Plan A to grim death.
    Yep, Corbyn was more conciliatory than he had to be in his reply last night.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,661


    Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?

    Heart of Stone...
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,339
    Scott_P said:



    Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?

    Heart of Stone...

    Might be nothing but if DUP do switch that is big news.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Scott_P said:



    Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?

    Heart of Stone...

    If the numbers are about there they will find a way to make it a different motion, done sort of functionary but meaningless change
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    edited March 14
    Only the thickest of ERGers wouldn't switch if the DUP do.
  • I would say other than Brexit, May is in power - she has a working majority over pretty much everyting else. Don't forget Osborne is a has-been, stuck in his newspaper gnawing the ends of his old plots, a toothless shadow trying and failing to regain some of his former substance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825

    I see Bercow has selected the Bryant no MV3 amendment - was odds on that he would!

    Well if the House votes for it it saves him the controversial decision on if to reject MV3 himself.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,982

    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
    Yes. Her original sin was the hubris with which she established her initial red lines. Even if Lab (as they no doubt would have) had dismissed an early appeal for a big tent approach, that she had made it would give a lot less cover for them voting against her deal now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
    Well, yes, her biggest mistake was failing to win an overall majority. It's not just that it meant lost votes in Parliament, but lost authority overall. Had she won 340 seats, things would be very different.
  • Bercow is now of either gender,

    "The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,214
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?

    A second vote will be just as legitimate as the first one - maybe more so given the shenanigans of that one. If you are instinctively Remain but think the government should get on with it and resent being asked again, you can vote Leave this time. If you are Leave, you will vote Leave. If at the end of all that, Remain wins, it's because people have collectively changed their minds. Democracy wins!

    My objection with a second referendum is that the question doesn't get any more sensible by being asked twice. But that's a different issue.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,875
    kle4 said:


    GIN1138 said:



    A footnote is that Oliver used to be the thinking man's Brexiteer, to the point that we agreed to write a book together called "Double Vision on Europe", in which we'd agree what the facts were and put our alternative pro- and anti-EU views on what conclusion should be drawn (we spiked it when he was promoted to the Shadow Cabinet and no longer could express independent views). He's now in predominantly Remainer company, presumably because he shares their horror at No Deal.

    You and Mr Poll Tax wanted to write a book?

    And who exactly did you think would be stupid enough to want to read it nevermind wasting their money buying it?
    A bit unkind. Perhaps it was for the joy of creating something than whether others would care for it?
    The world is full of books that few people want to read. The case for this one was that at the time (1998) all kinds of misleading statements about the EU were making it difficult to form an informed view. We felt we were forensic enough to agree what the facts were despite our diametrically opposed opinions, and lucid enough to suggest alternative conclusions for people to consider. I think there would have been an audience for it, but who knows?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,982
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
    Well, yes, her biggest mistake was failing to win an overall majority. It's not just that it meant lost votes in Parliament, but lost authority overall. Had she won 340 seats, things would be very different.
    That's just politics; election setbacks happen all the time. Her biggest mistake was failing to appreciate that a solution would therefore have to lie outside her office and closest advisers. She only woke up to this simple truth relatively recently.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,685

    I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.

    What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”

    In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.

    The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).

    Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.

    Who cares what TMay's legacy is or whether the Tory or Labour parties stay together. It's time MPs thought about the UK and stopped worrying about such trivialities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014

    Bercow is now of either gender,

    "The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"

    A male Bercow would be a Berbull, or perhaps a Bersteer.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Brom said:

    Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.

    Caroline Flint stood up on a point of order and angrily demanded it was voted down

    Not sure what it has to do with a point of order but the numbers should see it lose with all but 10 or so conservatives + the DUP + 30 + labour mps
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,484
    Scott_P said:
    EU summit is on the 21st and is pretty much the last chance to get an extension, as all the 27 are in the same room. After that it would be far more difficult and improbable.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,307

    I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.

    What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”

    In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.

    The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).

    Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.

    Who cares what TMay's legacy is or whether the Tory or Labour parties stay together. It's time MPs thought about the UK and stopped worrying about such trivialities.
    TMay.

    All PMs care about their legacy. One of the central attractions of having held the Top Job is having something to show for it at the end of the day, once you’re gone.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,280
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?

    Extension question which I think is even more interesting:
    Find minimum value of n where there exists an MP i where MVn(i) = against but MV(n-1)(i) = for.

    i.e. how many times can May bring the deal back before MPs start getting so fed up they move *away* from supporting it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434
    Bercow pouring petrol onto voters and lighting the match.

    Incredible scenes. GE getting more likely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763
    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,499
    On topic:- thanks to OGH for allowing me one last chance for some schadenfreude before the next YouGov poll comes out showing a 15% Tory lead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:



    Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?

    Heart of Stone...

    Might be nothing but if DUP do switch that is big news.
    I commented on this earlier this morning. Good to see Laura keeping up !!!!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,135
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    Beginning to look best to leave running the country to faceless unelected EU bureaucrats than our House of Commons... let's give back control!

    :)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,545
    Pulpstar said:

    Only the thickest of ERGers wouldn't switch if the DUP do.

    More or less than a dozen?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,804
    Pulpstar said:

    Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.

    Is she a double-agent?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    He comes out attacking her on his front page every day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    But other EU countries saying no
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    I can’t believe we time out in almost exactly 2 weeks time.

    That will go in a heartbeat.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,855
    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:



    Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?

    Heart of Stone...

    Might be nothing but if DUP do switch that is big news.

    They have to switch. A No Deal Brexit would destroy them.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040

    Bercow is now of either gender,

    "The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"

    Hopefully he didn't release his gender fluids all over the House :lol:

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.

    Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
    Well, yes, her biggest mistake was failing to win an overall majority. It's not just that it meant lost votes in Parliament, but lost authority overall. Had she won 340 seats, things would be very different.
    That's just politics; election setbacks happen all the time. Her biggest mistake was failing to appreciate that a solution would therefore have to lie outside her office and closest advisers. She only woke up to this simple truth relatively recently.
    Her closest advisors were a big part of the reason why she didn’t get the seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    edited March 14
    deleted
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,237
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
    Yes. Her original sin was the hubris with which she established her initial red lines. Even if Lab (as they no doubt would have) had dismissed an early appeal for a big tent approach, that she had made it would give a lot less cover for them voting against her deal now.
    She did make that appeal

    I think Corbyn emailed her the Labour manifesto and said he would be delighted to help her implement the attached programme
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,178
    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.

    Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.

    Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    Pulpstar said:

    Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.

    As I feared the TIG are showing themselves up to be rather smug and hectoring extreme centrists.
  • Scott_P said:
    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.

    Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.

    Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.
    Disagree - the public want Brexit over. The HoC wants to can kick forever rather than take a decision.
  • Bercow spent some time this morning admiring himself in the mirror, saying "He or she is the hero or heroine of Remain"

    'He says his decision on which amendments to pick "followed considerable reflection" this morning.'
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,237

    I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.

    What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”

    In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.

    The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).

    Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.

    Who cares what TMay's legacy is or whether the Tory or Labour parties stay together. It's time MPs thought about the UK and stopped worrying about such trivialities.
    Mrs May cares!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874

    Pulpstar said:

    Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.

    As I feared the TIG are showing themselves up to be rather smug and hectoring extreme centrists.
    that is one of the best oxymorons I have ever heard
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Scott_P said:
    John Redwood, one of the original 'bastards' of Major's day, might be the vote that brings down the government. Plus ca change...
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 504
    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    EU summit is on the 21st and is pretty much the last chance to get an extension, as all the 27 are in the same room. After that it would be far more difficult and improbable.
    My guess is that a conditional decision would be taken at the summit to approve a 2 month/2 year/whatever extension if circumstance X comes about before 10.59pm on Fri 29th. (eg "the council approves a 2 month administrative extension if the UK HoC has approved a deal before exit"; "the council approves an extension until Dec 31 2020 if the UK HoC casts a binding vote to call a referendum" etc etc). In any case, as Greece found out, a quick conference call does the trick in extremis.

    Have the whips yet advised MPs to cancel their constituency engagements that night?!!!
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?

    I don't think there's any solution unless you relax the constraint that n > 2.
    Or that n is real. I think that imaginary numbers apply here.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,434



    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.

    GE would give

    * New Con leader
    * Destruction of TIG
    * A slew of wet deselections
    * Low chance of a Lab majority
    * New speaker
    * Fewer Nats

    A far better scenario



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    edited March 14

    Scott_P said:
    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
    They may not have the numbers. The lib dems and TIG do not want an election nor do others who may well absent themselves. Also each one would have the whip withdrawn immediately and would have to stand as an independent

    Futhermore, this only goes through with DUP support so they would not have that either
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014
    TGOHF said:



    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.

    GE would give

    * New Con leader
    * Destruction of TIG
    * A slew of wet deselections
    * Low chance of a Lab majority
    * New speaker
    * Fewer Nats

    A far better scenario



    Why do you assume losing a VONC would lead to a general election? The House of Commons could just form a new government without the ERG.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082

    Scott_P said:
    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
    They may not have the numbers. The lib dems and TIG do not want an election nor do others who may well absent themselves. Also each one would have the whip withdrawn immediately and would have to stand as an independent

    Futhermore, this only goes through with DUP support so they would not have that either
    Corbyn would love the TIG and Lib Dems propping up the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,028

    TGOHF said:



    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.

    GE would give

    * New Con leader
    * Destruction of TIG
    * A slew of wet deselections
    * Low chance of a Lab majority
    * New speaker
    * Fewer Nats

    A far better scenario



    Why do you assume losing a VONC would lead to a general election? The House of Commons could just form a new government without the ERG.
    Government of national unity? I think that’s very unlikely given how far apart the two parties are.
  • Scott_P said:
    Oh jauk, jouk, neuk, souk, wauk or yeuk?
  • TGOHF said:



    I predicted that this morning.

    The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.

    GE would give

    * New Con leader
    * Destruction of TIG
    * A slew of wet deselections
    * Low chance of a Lab majority
    * New speaker
    * Fewer Nats

    A far better scenario



    You’re missing the more plausible outcome.

    No general election and Corbyn installed as PM promising to keep us in the customs union
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 504
    O/T (except as an illustration of the quality of stock roaming the corridors of power).

    A novel approach to tackling knife-crime; stick with the comments for the entertainment..

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,178
    TGOHF said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.

    Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.

    Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.
    Disagree - the public want Brexit over. The HoC wants to can kick forever rather than take a decision.
    Yes, but the public (like Parliament) wants it over in different ways!

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,307
    Scott_P said:
    We are rewriting the rulebook if Conservative MPs will not vote to sustain a Conservative government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,982
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:


    May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.

    I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.
    Yes. Her original sin was the hubris with which she established her initial red lines. Even if Lab (as they no doubt would have) had dismissed an early appeal for a big tent approach, that she had made it would give a lot less cover for them voting against her deal now.
    She did make that appeal

    I think Corbyn emailed her the Labour manifesto and said he would be delighted to help her implement the attached programme
    The fact that I don't remember this and that it hasn't been used by May, for example at every PMQs since, is indicative of the problem.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874
    TGOHF said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today

    It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.
    Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.

    Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.

    Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.
    Disagree - the public want Brexit over. The HoC wants to can kick forever rather than take a decision.
    It is always amusing when people irrationally claim to know the mind of the public (or worse, "the people"). It is though "the public" is actually some kind of super-mind, like Lovelock's earth in the Gaia principle. it is complete nonsense. "The People" do not exist, just a lot of confused individuals, some with logic, some without.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,187
    edited March 14

    Scott_P said:
    We are rewriting the rulebook if Conservative MPs will not vote to sustain a Conservative government.
    Given the unpunished rebellion by cabinet ministers yesterday, this is hardly unexpected.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 504

    Bercow is now of either gender,

    "The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"

    I suspect it allows him to rely on the fact Betty Boothroyd did so he doesn't have to :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    We are rewriting the rulebook if Conservative MPs will not vote to sustain a Conservative government.
    Given the unpunished rebellion by cabinet ministers yesterday, this is hardly unexpected.
    Yep, we've already had Tories crossing the floor and cabinet members abstaining on key votes. We're a long way past normal circumstances.
This discussion has been closed.