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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the openin

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the opening favourite to succeed

On he eve of the Lib Dem Spring Conference in York the leader since GE2017, Twickenham MP Vince Cable, has announced tonight that he’s stepping thus opening up a leadership contest.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First like Layla
  • Expect a lot of Eric Clapton themed puns if she becomes leader
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,452
    Photoshop might remove that cable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    Was there actually a Tory whip on the extension vote ? Payroll voting both ways
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Cute to see the Lib Dems being described as a significant UK political party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    edited March 14
    Layla is a bit meh. Chuka for leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    He should have resigned over Worboys. I had a bet on him as next out, scuppered by bloody Rudd iirc
    Me too, I would have won big if he had gone,grumble. Not that I thought he should have resigned, but come on, a payday is a payday.

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    He should have resigned over Worboys. I had a bet on him as next out, scuppered by bloody Rudd iirc
    If Gauke etc leave, so should Barclay and the clowns who voted against the Government motion to extend Brexit.
    While it's stupid that they did that and now have to implement it, surely the whole point of a free vote is they are allowed to do it, it's not the same as what Gauke did.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,452
    edited March 14
    in other news.

    Steel is suspended by Lib Dems.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,394
    Any likely policy differences between these two front runners?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,394
    I guess Ed Davey will also run?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    He should have resigned over Worboys. I had a bet on him as next out, scuppered by bloody Rudd iirc
    If Gauke etc leave, so should Barclay and the clowns who voted against the Government motion to extend Brexit.
    One was a free vote, one was whipped.

    If anyone should go it should be May for being so bloody incompetent at all this. Whatever happened to "the buck stops here"?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    On Cable, I don't quite know what he is seeking to achieve with the LDs as leader that means he should not stand down immediately, but I suppose a couple of months is so close it makes no difference.

    On the leader rules, I thought they'd only discussed them and they had not yet been implemented? It's hard to remember the details of anything coming out of the LD conference.

    The Tiggers have a male spokesperson of course, so if they go for party status may well have a male leader. But the Brexit party does not, and they could be major soon if we get EU elections!
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 64
    Layla Moran - the last leader of the Lib Dems?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,688
    kle4 said:

    On Cable, I don't quite know what he is seeking to achieve with the LDs as leader that means he should not stand down immediately, but I suppose a couple of months is so close it makes no difference.

    On the leader rules, I thought they'd only discussed them and they had not yet been implemented? It's hard to remember the details of anything coming out of the LD conference.

    The Tiggers have a male spokesperson of course, so if they go for party status may well have a male leader. But the Brexit party does not, and they could be major soon if we get EU elections!

    Heidi Allen would make a good lib dem leader
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Twickenham MP Vince Cable, has announced tonight that he’s stepping thus opening up a leadership contest

    Stepping down? Stepping up? Stepping into a vat of liquid marmalade? You decide, readers :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,160
    Still trying to come to terms with the idea that Cable is leader of the Lib Dems. How did I miss that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    kle4 said:

    On Cable, I don't quite know what he is seeking to achieve with the LDs as leader that means he should not stand down immediately, but I suppose a couple of months is so close it makes no difference.

    On the leader rules, I thought they'd only discussed them and they had not yet been implemented? It's hard to remember the details of anything coming out of the LD conference.

    The Tiggers have a male spokesperson of course, so if they go for party status may well have a male leader. But the Brexit party does not, and they could be major soon if we get EU elections!

    Heidi Allen would make a good lib dem leader
    Anna Soubry for Lib Dem leader :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    He should have resigned over Worboys. I had a bet on him as next out, scuppered by bloody Rudd iirc
    If Gauke etc leave, so should Barclay and the clowns who voted against the Government motion to extend Brexit.
    One was a free vote, one was whipped.

    If anyone should go it should be May for being so bloody incompetent at all this. Whatever happened to "the buck stops here"?
    Incompetency has never been a reason to resign on its own, it requires pressure as a result of that incompetence and people seeking to replace you, so nothing has changed there
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Tiggers to join LDs if right LD leader chosen?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,394
    kle4 said:

    Tiggers to join LDs if right LD leader chosen?

    Give us a clue.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,530
    Observations from an Oxfordshire Lib Dem member.

    a) Layla is awesome.

    b) Unusually, everyone I know who comes into contact with her is reinforced in that belief. Cameron was my MP and the universal belief was “he’s a great constituency MP, but he’s a shit”. People I know in OxWAb say “she’s a great constituency MP and she’s a star”. DISCLAIMER: oxfordsimon of this parish believes precisely the opposite.

    c) Her constituency agent (a very astute chap) doesn’t want her to stand. He thinks she needs to concentrate on building up her vote first. Personally I think the leadership would be worth an extra 3k and there is no way North Oxford is going to vote Tory post-Brexit, especially given that the contest will be a social liberal teacher vs a weird bitcoin enthusiast, but he knows more about pavement politics than I do.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162

    kle4 said:

    Tiggers to join LDs if right LD leader chosen?

    Give us a clue.
    Whoever has least ties to the coalition years and yet also doesn't want to be labour lite maybe.

    But I don't think it a serious proposition.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,718
    DavidL said:

    Still trying to come to terms with the idea that Cable is leader of the Lib Dems. How did I miss that?

    What I'm confused by is why he even put himself forward to be leader, when he obviously didn't particularly want to do it or have any particular ideas about what he'd do as leader.

    And I'm even more confused why the rest of the Lib Dem MPs (including the aforementioned Ms Moran) gave him a clear run at it despite those obvious drawbacks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814

    kle4 said:

    On Cable, I don't quite know what he is seeking to achieve with the LDs as leader that means he should not stand down immediately, but I suppose a couple of months is so close it makes no difference.

    On the leader rules, I thought they'd only discussed them and they had not yet been implemented? It's hard to remember the details of anything coming out of the LD conference.

    The Tiggers have a male spokesperson of course, so if they go for party status may well have a male leader. But the Brexit party does not, and they could be major soon if we get EU elections!

    Heidi Allen would make a good lib dem leader
    My friend thinks she looks OK :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    kle4 said:

    Twickenham MP Vince Cable, has announced tonight that he’s stepping thus opening up a leadership contest

    Stepping down? Stepping up? Stepping into a vat of liquid marmalade? You decide, readers :)

    Steppenwolf?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,211
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Still trying to come to terms with the idea that Cable is leader of the Lib Dems. How did I miss that?

    What I'm confused by is why he even put himself forward to be leader, when he obviously didn't particularly want to do it or have any particular ideas about what he'd do as leader.

    And I'm even more confused why the rest of the Lib Dem MPs (including the aforementioned Ms Moran) gave him a clear run at it despite those obvious drawbacks.
    I suppose Vince was still dining off his ‘I predicted the crash’ glory, and the Lib Dem’s were just desperate.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,718
    Which of the last 4 Lib Dem leaders was the most successful?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Still trying to come to terms with the idea that Cable is leader of the Lib Dems. How did I miss that?

    What I'm confused by is why he even put himself forward to be leader, when he obviously didn't particularly want to do it or have any particular ideas about what he'd do as leader.

    And I'm even more confused why the rest of the Lib Dem MPs (including the aforementioned Ms Moran) gave him a clear run at it despite those obvious drawbacks.
    The only reason seems to be that Swinson didn't want to take on the role right then. I seem to recall right at the time it was being described as him being caretaker leader for a few years and then standing down, and so it has transpired - maybe more has gone on for the party than I as an outsider can see, and maybe it would have been impossible for them to take advantage of the Tory/Labour chaos whoever was leader, but has he even really tried? I know it would be tough for the leader of a small party of MPs, but Moran and Swinson both seem to get more press, and surely someone other than Cable could have made more of a splash, had more energy and vision, than he has had?

    They should have taken more of a gamble.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814

    First like Layla

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Fun fact - the LD website lists all their MPs, and all of them as 'spokesperson' for something, except Normal Lamb, who gets to be 'Shadow Health Secretary'. How come he gets the shadow tag and no one else does?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,530
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Still trying to come to terms with the idea that Cable is leader of the Lib Dems. How did I miss that?

    What I'm confused by is why he even put himself forward to be leader, when he obviously didn't particularly want to do it or have any particular ideas about what he'd do as leader.

    And I'm even more confused why the rest of the Lib Dem MPs (including the aforementioned Ms Moran) gave him a clear run at it despite those obvious drawbacks.
    Layla Moran had been an MP for a couple of weeks when Farron stepped down. You couldn’t realistically expect her to stand.

    Jo Swinson’s reluctance is more significant. But tbh I think Jo’s problem is more that she’s identified with what are characterised as “SJW issues” whereas Layla has been concentrating on “why your child is getting a shit education”, which is arguably a whole bunch more marketable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443

    Observations from an Oxfordshire Lib Dem member.

    a) Layla is awesome.

    b) Unusually, everyone I know who comes into contact with her is reinforced in that belief. Cameron was my MP and the universal belief was “he’s a great constituency MP, but he’s a shit”. People I know in OxWAb say “she’s a great constituency MP and she’s a star”. DISCLAIMER: oxfordsimon of this parish believes precisely the opposite.

    c) Her constituency agent (a very astute chap) doesn’t want her to stand. He thinks she needs to concentrate on building up her vote first. Personally I think the leadership would be worth an extra 3k and there is no way North Oxford is going to vote Tory post-Brexit, especially given that the contest will be a social liberal teacher vs a weird bitcoin enthusiast, but he knows more about pavement politics than I do.

    Layla, you got me on my knees
    Layla, begging, darling, please
    Layla, darling, won't you ease my worried mind?

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,530
    The
    Danny565 said:

    Which of the last 4 Lib Dem leaders was the most successful?

    None of them.

    The one we miss is Charlie Kennedy. Just think what a contribution he could make to the Brexit debate. Tragically sad for him but also for the country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    edited March 14
    Danny565 said:

    Which of the last 4 Lib Dem leaders was the most successful?

    Nick Clegg. He (sort of) achieved some LD policies for the country. Yes, the party got demolished for that, the public are not grateful, but he actually got something done.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    edited March 14
    kle4 said:

    Fun fact - the LD website lists all their MPs, and all of them as 'spokesperson' for something, except Normal Lamb, who gets to be 'Shadow Health Secretary'. How come he gets the shadow tag and no one else does?

    Jon Ashworth may have an issue with that!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,301
    edited March 14
    At last.

    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,263
    Congratulations must go to Vince Cable. From the damage inflicted in the 2015 election he has somehow managed to make the Lib Dems look even more irrelevant on the national stage.

    Was he a long term plant?

    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,718
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which of the last 4 Lib Dem leaders was the most successful?

    Nick Clegg. He (sort of) achieved some LD policies for the country. Yes, the party got demolished for that, the public are not grateful, but he actually got something done.
    Against that, even if you factor out 2015, he lost a greater % of Lib Dem seats even in 2010 than Theresa May did in 2017. And he was the first Liberal/LibDem leader to fail to win a by-election since the 1950s (though Cable looks set to join him, bar a spectacular upset in Newport West).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact - the LD website lists all their MPs, and all of them as 'spokesperson' for something, except Normal Lamb, who gets to be 'Shadow Health Secretary'. How come he gets the shadow tag and no one else does?

    Jon Ashworth may have an issue with that!
    Orville who ?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,432
    IanB2 said:

    At last.

    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    Oh god. It’s Jo Swinson all over again!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776
    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,301

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Still trying to come to terms with the idea that Cable is leader of the Lib Dems. How did I miss that?

    What I'm confused by is why he even put himself forward to be leader, when he obviously didn't particularly want to do it or have any particular ideas about what he'd do as leader.

    And I'm even more confused why the rest of the Lib Dem MPs (including the aforementioned Ms Moran) gave him a clear run at it despite those obvious drawbacks.
    Layla Moran had been an MP for a couple of weeks when Farron stepped down. You couldn’t realistically expect her to stand.

    Jo Swinson’s reluctance is more significant. But tbh I think Jo’s problem is more that she’s identified with what are characterised as “SJW issues” whereas Layla has been concentrating on “why your child is getting a shit education”, which is arguably a whole bunch more marketable.
    Swinson is obsessed with identity politics. And tarnished by her stint as junior minister (or monster, as my iPad tried to make it) in the coalition.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact - the LD website lists all their MPs, and all of them as 'spokesperson' for something, except Normal Lamb, who gets to be 'Shadow Health Secretary'. How come he gets the shadow tag and no one else does?

    Jon Ashworth may have an issue with that!
    Orville who ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Secretary_of_State_for_Health_and_Social_Care
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,530
    IanB2 said:

    At last.

    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    Yeah, that’s what her office thinks.

    Whether she thinks that... we shall see.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    IanB2 said:

    At last.
    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    She might not feel ready or be ready. But when the call comes can she really refuse? If she has concerns about Swinson or another candidate not being right for it either, what damage to the party in not even trying now and spending who knows how many years with someone unable to take advantage of the situation that exists?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    At last.

    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    Oh god. It’s Jo Swinson all over again!
    Bring back Tim Farron.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,301
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    At last.
    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    She might not feel ready or be ready. But when the call comes can she really refuse? If she has concerns about Swinson or another candidate not being right for it either, what damage to the party in not even trying now and spending who knows how many years with someone unable to take advantage of the situation that exists?
    Absolutely. She needs to step up. As she said in her Dale interview, it is early in her career and would be a gamble. But the LibDems don't have so much to lose and under Cable are going nowhere.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,414
    If the LDs have any sense it will be a Swinson v Moran fight.

    Then Corbyn is left the only man standing (down to :Adam Price?)

    May
    Swinson/Moran
    Sturgeon
    McDonald
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688
    Y0kel said:

    Congratulations must go to Vince Cable. From the damage inflicted in the 2015 election he has somehow managed to make the Lib Dems look even more irrelevant on the national stage.

    Was he a long term plant?

    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    If they could secretly bring about either May’s deal or Remain without responsibly for it, which do you think they would go for?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,414

    IanB2 said:

    At last.

    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    Yeah, that’s what her office thinks.

    Whether she thinks that... we shall see.
    She has until May!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,686

    First like Layla

    When my Good Lady Wifi - the only female record producer in the world at the time - was working out of Nashville, she was good friends with Billy Whitlock, who played on Layla.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,367
    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
  • sladeslade Posts: 731
    Lab hold in Durham but 14% swing to Lib Dems.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,414

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact - the LD website lists all their MPs, and all of them as 'spokesperson' for something, except Normal Lamb, who gets to be 'Shadow Health Secretary'. How come he gets the shadow tag and no one else does?

    Jon Ashworth may have an issue with that!
    Orville who ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Secretary_of_State_for_Health_and_Social_Care
    is it because his role under the coalition?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,263
    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The DUP know this too, they are looking at issues outside of Brexit as well as the issue itself. If the ERG types had shown signs of backing the deal on Tuesday they'd have probably voted for it but they waited until they saw the scale of the opposition before going for no, using the Attorney General's statement as cover.

    They were one of the first to raise the idea that 'clarifications' might help. There is a strong hint there that they are looking a way through from London as much as Brussels.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688
    Lay Layla Lay.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443
    IanB2 said:

    At last.

    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    It is like much of the rest of life. If you wit for the perfect time then you never do anything.

    Personally I am a Lamb-ite, but Layla is a breath of fresh air and great on TV with a natural normality that comes over well.

    Run Layla Run.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    edited March 14
    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    Well exactly. All respect to Y0kel, but what does it matter if they 'really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal' if they never bloody seem to respond to any attempts to help them achieve that support, and demand things that just are not within the gift of the government? Their words look hollow, or what they need unobtainable even if they are sincere as Y0kel says they are.

    Judging by their actions they don't seem to give a hoot what option happens, and that seems more reliable than judging by their words or even the feeling of people with local knowledge of their operation. They can say they want to help all they want without ever actually helping.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,862
    I don't think the choice of Lib Dem leader is that big a thing.

    But I could be wrong. It wouldn't take much of a Lib Dem revival to make the Conservative path to a decent majority much harder.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    Well it's not a law of gravity, but it does need agreement from 27 separate EU states to extend
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,263
    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    Well exactly. All respect to Y0kel, but what does it matter if they 'really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal' if they never bloody seem to respond to any attempts to help them achieve that support, and demand things that just are not within the gift of the government? Their words look hollow, or what they need unobtainable even if they are sincere as Y0kel says they are.

    Judging by their actions they don't seem to give a hoot what option happens, and that seems more reliable than judging by their words or even the feeling of people with local knowledge of their operation.
    Sincere? This is politics.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,432

    If the LDs have any sense it will be a Swinson v Moran fight.

    Then Corbyn is left the only man standing (down to :Adam Price?)

    May
    Swinson/Moran
    Sturgeon
    McDonald

    There are very many PBers who still hold a torch for Leanne Wood.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Y0kel said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The DUP know this too, they are looking at issues outside of Brexit as well as the issue itself. If the ERG types had shown signs of backing the deal on Tuesday they'd have probably voted for it but they waited until they saw the scale of the opposition before going for no, using the Attorney General's statement as cover.
    Now you're not making any sense, since the excuse of the non-hardcore ERGers is they waited to see what the DUP thought before acting!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Y0kel said:

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    Well exactly. All respect to Y0kel, but what does it matter if they 'really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal' if they never bloody seem to respond to any attempts to help them achieve that support, and demand things that just are not within the gift of the government? Their words look hollow, or what they need unobtainable even if they are sincere as Y0kel says they are.

    Judging by their actions they don't seem to give a hoot what option happens, and that seems more reliable than judging by their words or even the feeling of people with local knowledge of their operation.
    Sincere? This is politics.
    Fair enough. So you don't believe they are really trying to find a way to achieve support for the deal then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688
    Scott_P said:
    Shanker Singham has just denied that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    First like Layla

    When my Good Lady Wifi - the only female record producer in the world at the time - was working out of Nashville, she was good friends with Billy Whitlock, who played on Layla.
    Good Lady Wifi?

    You were ahead of your times there ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162

    I don't think the choice of Lib Dem leader is that big a thing.

    But I could be wrong. It wouldn't take much of a Lib Dem revival to make the Conservative path to a decent majority much harder.

    Given the number of people who claim in theory to be willing to back a new centrist party of remainers even though one already exists, simply because it would be a new entity, I don't rule out the possibility that a new leader, if lucky and talented, could see a pretty decent revival even if really doing nothing different in policy terms.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688
    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    Well exactly. All respect to Y0kel, but what does it matter if they 'really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal' if they never bloody seem to respond to any attempts to help them achieve that support, and demand things that just are not within the gift of the government? Their words look hollow, or what they need unobtainable even if they are sincere as Y0kel says they are.

    Judging by their actions they don't seem to give a hoot what option happens, and that seems more reliable than judging by their words or even the feeling of people with local knowledge of their operation.
    Sincere? This is politics.
    Fair enough. So you don't believe they are really trying to find a way to achieve support for the deal then.
    @Y0kel is a Brexit supporter and doesn’t want to let go...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,718

    I don't think the choice of Lib Dem leader is that big a thing.

    But I could be wrong. It wouldn't take much of a Lib Dem revival to make the Conservative path to a decent majority much harder.

    Wouldn't it? Even a 5% swing to the Lib Dems would only gain them 5 seats from the Tories:

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Scott_P said:
    Could have asked her out, immed and ammed about it, now see her with someone else, whose texting her up asking if she’s free and wants him to come round with some cards and a wet suit. Of course they are regretting it. But can they do anything about it?

    DUP. Before MV2 there was at least momentum and fanfare of various documents that could act as fig leaf for whoever needed one? Fervently against it so far, what actually changes before MV3 for them to do such a fateful flip flop?

    ERG. Can be pared down further, yes! but all the way to zero? can thisgroup ever be pared down to less than twen t for MV3?Some including Boris, will never vote for May’s deal, see it as too much vassalage not enough respect for Britain that can only come from no deal, One way to pare it down would be for May to announce timetable of her departure this year. However one variable eclipses growing threat of no Brexit, seeing the terms, strings, the control EU will have over Brexit at the next EU gathering, Britain weak at the summit begging, accepting distasteful terms at the hands of the EU will set a terrible anti EU, pro no deal mood back here will influence brexiteers inMV4 held straight after it, sending noes on MV4 up again not down.

    Labour rebels. In their minds this week it was last meaningful vote time, yet just three Labour MPs went for it. How many more for MV3 and why? How many come out the woodwork if it looks like it could win, will it ever look like it could win for them to risk that? Where’s thirty Mann predicted when he came out of Downing Street having talked thirty pieces of silver? Am beginning to think Mann, darling of media for a quote is a tad gobby over exaggerates. Just because someone is leave inclined or in leave constituency doesn’t make them a shoe in for supporting May’s narrowly negotiated self-confessed imperfect deal, regardless what party they are in.

    Tory remainers, soft brexiteers, back to thepeoplers. And here’s the thing, with all the focus on ERG/DUP we could be missing something that has changed since MV2. This tory grouping have become firmer, bigger, emboldened making Mays deal even harder to pass? Those in this grouping who backed may in MV2, such as Ken Clarke, can their vote be taken for granted in MV3?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. Conveniently there's more meetings scheduled with the EU in the next couple of weeks already.

    I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Endillion said:

    Yes, because if you cannot agree a big deal, agreeing lots of mini deals is super easy.

    GuidoFawkes, while dismissive of no deal fears, does seem to me to be broadly a reluctant deal supporter, and while more cautious than others in making predictions perhaps just as prone to the unreasonable optimism of most predictors of potential success for the deal.

    Maybe I've read him wrong though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    At last.
    I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.

    She might not feel ready or be ready. But when the call comes can she really refuse? If she has concerns about Swinson or another candidate not being right for it either, what damage to the party in not even trying now and spending who knows how many years with someone unable to take advantage of the situation that exists?
    Absolutely. She needs to step up. As she said in her Dale interview, it is early in her career and would be a gamble. But the LibDems don't have so much to lose and under Cable are going nowhere.
    It's a pity that Cyril Smith is no longer around to do the job.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,367
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    Well it's not a law of gravity, but it does need agreement from 27 separate EU states to extend
    Or it can be revoked . Another surprise .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. .
    Except as you yourself said after Cox's advice, nothing was really achieved by it.

    So the 'negotiations' didn't actually negotiate anything at all. But a new leader or whoever would manage to negotiate something major in a week?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    kle4 said:

    Yes, because if you cannot agree a big deal, agreeing lots of mini deals is super easy.

    Agreeing lots of mini deals is easier as you can reach satisfactory agreement on an issue and sign that deal without it all being held up by something else in a mega deal.

    What's not been spoken about much is that we've already reached a whole series of mini deals that will be implemented in a no deal scenario.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Dots make the key point that in the run up to MV2 there were at least things that might have given cover for switchers, but there seems no sign of that now ahead of MV3. For ERG or Lab rebels why was the last chance saloon not MV2? Threats of no deal or no Brexit were not compelling to them before, and I find it hard to believe they could not see 1 or 2 days ahead to what would follow if they said no, so what actually new will persuade them??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    edited March 14
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    Well it's not a law of gravity, but it does need agreement from 27 separate EU states to extend
    Or it can be revoked . Another surprise .
    Well it can be, but there's probably no parliamentary majority for that
    And yes I know May can do it unilaterally, but she won't
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. .
    Except as you yourself said after Cox's advice, nothing was really achieved by it.

    So the 'negotiations' didn't actually negotiate anything at all. But a new leader or whoever would manage to negotiate something major in a week?
    Well indeed, I thought something was agreed but it was a farce. Why Cox wasn't in the room in the negotiations in the first place is beyond me, that he only saw the deal at 1am after it was signed is ludicrous.

    Hence my proposal that Dodds [and lets add Cox too] should be in the room next time.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,432
    Y0kel said:

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    Well exactly. All respect to Y0kel, but what does it matter if they 'really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal' if they never bloody seem to respond to any attempts to help them achieve that support, and demand things that just are not within the gift of the government? Their words look hollow, or what they need unobtainable even if they are sincere as Y0kel says they are.

    Judging by their actions they don't seem to give a hoot what option happens, and that seems more reliable than judging by their words or even the feeling of people with local knowledge of their operation.
    Sincere? This is politics.
    The DUP, whose voters benefit from a borderless Ireland, are performing the previously assumed impossible and having their cake while eating it. By refusing to support the Deal they promote timeless Remain while presenting as hardliners.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    kle4 said:

    Dots make the key point that in the run up to MV2 there were at least things that might have given cover for switchers, but there seems no sign of that now ahead of MV3. For ERG or Lab rebels why was the last chance saloon not MV2? Threats of no deal or no Brexit were not compelling to them before, and I find it hard to believe they could not see 1 or 2 days ahead to what would follow if they said no, so what actually new will persuade them??

    Those things that could have given cover only appeared in the 24-48 hours before MV2.

    If there's to be a successful MV3 the same could happen again. But this time less of a farce would be great.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,263
    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The DUP know this too, they are looking at issues outside of Brexit as well as the issue itself. If the ERG types had shown signs of backing the deal on Tuesday they'd have probably voted for it but they waited until they saw the scale of the opposition before going for no, using the Attorney General's statement as cover.
    Now you're not making any sense, since the excuse of the non-hardcore ERGers is they waited to see what the DUP thought before acting!
    Its only inconsistent if you take what you see from the ERG at face value and also assume the DUP hasn't used them somewhat, which it has. Bear in mind a number of the ERG types were clear in opposition before the DUP made their position clear. I said it last night, the DUP used them as a human shield. If you take the view they have no reason to bother, they seem to be doing a remarkably good job of suddenly wanting to bother.

    They aren't aiming at the same objectives as the ERG beyond supporting Brexit and ensuring the union is maintained. Never have been and given some ERG members wouldn't give two hoots about NI in an ideological quest for their kind of Brexit, there are some interesting gaps between the two. The DUP have, somehow, got to a situation where many of the ERG grouping are relying on their opinion. Why that is, no idea but there it is.

    If you look back on Monday, I posted clearly that the concessions brought back on Monday would prove challenging for the DUP to say no to and that they would hold on making a call until the morning if not the afternoon. They just sat tight. Now its all stories that the DUP are talking here and there.

    Consider their existential purpose and its perfectly logical why they now want to close out on this situation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could have asked her out, immed and ammed about it, now see her with someone else, whose texting her up asking if she’s free and wants him to come round with some cards and a wet suit. Of course they are regretting it. But can they do anything about it?

    DUP. Before MV2 there was at least momentum and fanfare of various documents that could act as fig leaf for whoever needed one? Fervently against it so far, what actually changes before MV3 for them to do such a fateful flip flop?

    ERG. Can be pared down further, yes! but all the way to zero? can thisgroup ever be pared down to less than twen t for MV3?Some including Boris, will never vote for May’s deal, see it as too much vassalage not enough respect for Britain that can only come from no deal, One way to pare it down would be for May to announce timetable of her departure this year. However one variable eclipses growing threat of no Brexit, seeing the terms, strings, the control EU will have over Brexit at the next EU gathering, Britain weak at the summit begging, accepting distasteful terms at the hands of the EU will set a terrible anti EU, pro no deal mood back here will influence brexiteers inMV4 held straight after it, sending noes on MV4 up again not down.

    Labour rebels. In their minds this week it was last meaningful vote time, yet just three Labour MPs went for it. How many more for MV3 and why? How many come out the woodwork if it looks like it could win, will it ever look like it could win for them to risk that? Where’s thirty Mann predicted when he came out of Downing Street having talked thirty pieces of silver? Am beginning to think Mann, darling of media for a quote is a tad gobby over exaggerates. Just because someone is leave inclined or in leave constituency doesn’t make them a shoe in for supporting May’s narrowly negotiated self-confessed imperfect deal, regardless what party they are in.

    Tory remainers, soft brexiteers, back to thepeoplers. And here’s the thing, with all the focus on ERG/DUP we could be missing something that has changed since MV2. This tory grouping have become firmer, bigger, emboldened making Mays deal even harder to pass? Those in this grouping who backed may in MV2, such as Ken Clarke, can their vote be taken for granted in MV3?
    There seems to be no route to a Second Referendum. The Commons rejects No Deal. I doubt if they have the guts to revoke A50. The government won't lose a VONC even if Chope the Loon switches sides, so what does that leave but the WA?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586
    Will the next LD leader just be the new David Steel to Chuka's Roy Jenkins or David Owen?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Sean_F said:

    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could have asked her out, immed and ammed about it, now see her with someone else, whose texting her up asking if she’s free and wants him to come round with some cards and a wet suit. Of course they are regretting it. But can they do anything about it?

    DUP. Before MV2 there was at least momentum and fanfare of various documents that could act as fig leaf for whoever needed one? Fervently against it so far, what actually changes before MV3 for them to do such a fateful flip flop?

    ERG. Can be pared down further, yes! but all the way to zero? can thisgroup ever be pared down to less than twen t for MV3?Some including Boris, will never vote for May’s deal, see it as too much vassalage not enough respect for Britain that can only come from no deal, One way to pare it down would be for May to announce timetable of her departure this year. However one variable eclipses growing threat of no Brexit, seeing the terms, strings, the control EU will have over Brexit at the next EU gathering, Britain weak at the summit begging, accepting distasteful terms at the hands of the EU will set a terrible anti EU, pro no deal mood back here will influence brexiteers inMV4 held straight after it, sending noes on MV4 up again not down.

    Labour rebels. In their minds this week it was last meaningful vote time, yet just three Labour MPs went for it. How many more for MV3 and why? How many come out the woodwork if it looks like it could win, will it ever look like it could win for them to risk that? Where’s thirty Mann predicted when he came out of Downing Street having talked thirty pieces of silver? Am beginning to think Mann, darling of media for a quote is a tad gobby over exaggerates. Just because someone is leave inclined or in leave constituency doesn’t make them a shoe in for supporting May’s narrowly negotiated self-confessed imperfect deal, regardless what party they are in.

    Tory remainers, soft brexiteers, back to thepeoplers. And here’s the thing, with all the focus on ERG/DUP we could be missing something that has changed since MV2. This tory grouping have become firmer, bigger, emboldened making Mays deal even harder to pass? Those in this grouping who backed may in MV2, such as Ken Clarke, can their vote be taken for granted in MV3?
    There seems to be no route to a Second Referendum. The Commons rejects No Deal. I doubt if they have the guts to revoke A50. The government won't lose a VONC even if Chope the Loon switches sides, so what does that leave but the WA?
    A long extension, change of PM and new negotiations with someone with some moral authority in the chamber taking charge.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,432
    T

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. .
    Except as you yourself said after Cox's advice, nothing was really achieved by it.

    So the 'negotiations' didn't actually negotiate anything at all. But a new leader or whoever would manage to negotiate something major in a week?
    Well indeed, I thought something was agreed but it was a farce. Why Cox wasn't in the room in the negotiations in the first place is beyond me, that he only saw the deal at 1am after it was signed is ludicrous.

    Hence my proposal that Dodds [and lets add Cox too] should be in the room next time.
    Could you imagine being in a room with the ludicrous Cox until 1am? You wouldn’t be able to hear yourself think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Y0kel said:

    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The DUP know this too, they are looking at issues outside of Brexit as well as the issue itself. If the ERG types had shown signs of backing the deal on Tuesday they'd have probably voted for it but they waited until they saw the scale of the opposition before going for no, using the Attorney General's statement as cover.
    Now you're not making any sense, since the excuse of the non-hardcore ERGers is they waited to see what the DUP thought before acting!
    Its only inconsistent if you take what you see from the ERG at face value and also assume the DUP hasn't used them somewhat, which it has. Bear in mind a number of the ERG types were clear in opposition before the DUP made their position clear. I said it last night, the DUP used them as a human shield. If you take the view they have no reason to bother, they seem to be doing a remarkably good job of suddenly wanting to bother.

    They aren't aiming at the same objectives as the ERG beyond supporting Brexit and ensuring the union is maintained. Never have been and given some ERG members wouldn't give two hoots about NI in an ideological quest for their kind of Brexit, there are some interesting gaps between the two. The DUP have, somehow, got to a situation where many of the ERG grouping are relying on their opinion. Why that is, no idea but there it is.

    If you look back on Monday, I posted clearly that the concessions brought back on Monday would prove challenging for the DUP to say no to and that they would hold on making a call until the morning if not the afternoon. They just sat tight. Now its all stories that the DUP are talking here and there.

    Consider their existential purpose and its perfectly logical why they now want to close out on this situation.
    That's great, except they may have left it too late and look like a bunch of buffoons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    _Anazina_ said:

    T

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. .
    Except as you yourself said after Cox's advice, nothing was really achieved by it.

    So the 'negotiations' didn't actually negotiate anything at all. But a new leader or whoever would manage to negotiate something major in a week?
    Well indeed, I thought something was agreed but it was a farce. Why Cox wasn't in the room in the negotiations in the first place is beyond me, that he only saw the deal at 1am after it was signed is ludicrous.

    Hence my proposal that Dodds [and lets add Cox too] should be in the room next time.
    Could you imagine being in a room with the ludicrous Cox until 1am? You wouldn’t be able to hear yourself think.
    Why do you keep calling him the ludicrous Cox? He's verbose and theatrical in delivery?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. Conveniently there's more meetings scheduled with the EU in the next couple of weeks already.

    I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
    They didn't renegotiate one word of the WA, as they said they wouldn't. They said they won't renegotiate it over the next couple of weeks, and they won't. At no stage in proceedings have the EU done anything they said explicitly that they wouldn't do. They won't start now.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,414
    Neil Coyle subtweets Corbyn:

    More
    When you promised an end to spin & triangulation but delivered constructive ambiguity. When you said members would shape policy but shut them out. When working class voters think you're a Liberal elite & affluent voters think you've sold out for Leave, maybe it's a dead end.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,214
    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    Turn the cooling units back on, mother... Mother??
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342

    Sean_F said:

    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    Could have asked her out, immed and ammed about it, now see her with someone else, whose texting her up asking if she’s free and wants him to come round with some cards and a wet suit. Of course they are regretting it. But can they do anything about it?

    DUP. Before MV2 there was at least momentum and fanfare of various documents that could act as fig leaf for whoever needed one? Fervently against it so far, what actually changes before MV3 for them to do such a fateful flip flop?

    ERG. Can be pared down further, yes! but all the way to zero? can thisgroup ever be pared down to less than twen t for MV3?Some including Boris, will never vote for May’s deal, see it as too much vassalage not enough respect for Britain that can only come from no deal, One way to pare it down would be for May to announce timetable of her departure this year. However one variable eclipses growing threat of no Brexit, seeing the terms, strings, the control EU will have over Brexit at the next EU gathering, Britain weak at the summit begging, accepting distasteful terms at the hands of the EU will set a terrible anti EU, pro no deal mood back here will influence brexiteers inMV4 held straight after it, sending noes on MV4 up again not down.

    Labour rebels. In their minds this week it was last meaningful vote time, yet just three Labour MPs went for it. How many more for MV3 and why? How many come out the woodwork if it looks like it could win, will it ever look like it could win for them to risk that? Where’s thirty Mann predicted when he came out of Downing Street having talked thirty pieces of silver? Am beginning to think Mann, darling of media for a quote is a tad gobby over exaggerates. Just because someone is leave inclined or in leave constituency doesn’t make them a shoe in for supporting May’s narrowly negotiated self-confessed imperfect deal, regardless what party they are in.

    Tory remainers, soft brexiteers, back to thepeoplers. And here’s the thing, with all the focus on ERG/DUP we could be missing something that has changed since MV2. This tory grouping have become firmer, bigger, emboldened making Mays deal even harder to pass? Those in this grouping who backed may in MV2, such as Ken Clarke, can their vote be taken for granted in MV3?
    There seems to be no route to a Second Referendum. The Commons rejects No Deal. I doubt if they have the guts to revoke A50. The government won't lose a VONC even if Chope the Loon switches sides, so what does that leave but the WA?
    A long extension, change of PM and new negotiations with someone with some moral authority in the chamber taking charge.
    I don't think there is anybody.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    edited March 14
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. Conveniently there's more meetings scheduled with the EU in the next couple of weeks already.

    I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
    They didn't renegotiate one word of the WA, as they said they wouldn't. They said they won't renegotiate it over the next couple of weeks, and they won't. At no stage in proceedings have the EU done anything they said explicitly that they wouldn't do. They won't start now.
    And while it requires more actual work to implement, we just said we won't no deal.
This discussion has been closed.