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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the openin

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter and secondly to go for the 2017 election on the basis that she could then use the resulting Tory majority to steamroller objections.
    However, we are now where we are.
    IMHO the EU leadership has been extremely patient and forbearing, especially as it has a duty to protect Ireland's interests.
    If May has failed so has the EU neither is getting a deal over the line.
    It's the EU's refusal to negotiate the future relationship which has led to the backstop.

    That backstop may yet stop a deal being made and poison the future relationship.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659
    edited March 2019
    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1106443493508042753

    On a 'per population' basis that's proportionately almost as many as died on 9/11 - and the equivalent of five times the number killed by the IRA in mainland UK during the troubles.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Good morning, everyone.

    Damn it, I'll have missed the boat. Still, I got really lucky with the Lib Dem leadership contest last time so can't complain too much. I wonder if Cable felt the new threat of the Tiggers meant he should go sooner rather than later.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. Conveniently there's more meetings scheduled with the EU in the next couple of weeks already.

    I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
    They didn't renegotiate one word of the WA, as they said they wouldn't. They said they won't renegotiate it over the next couple of weeks, and they won't. At no stage in proceedings have the EU done anything they said explicitly that they wouldn't do. They won't start now.
    And while it requires more actual work to implement, we just said we won't no deal.
    No we didn't. Parliament said that. For better or worse they are not the same thing.
    I don't understand your point. What Parliament decides to do on our behalf will be what matters.
    No. Until they vote 'for' something they are just whistling in the wind. Once the EU decide to grant no further extensions, Parliament must vote to either accept the deal or revoke. Voting to refute a No Deal is like voting to refute gravity.
    The EU voting to grant no further extensions is voting to enforce no deal. Its not going to happen realistically.
    Hypothetically, why shouldn't (say) Slovenia decide that they can leverage their ability to bring about No Deal, in exchange for whatever Slovenia currently wants out of the EU? What happens of three or four countries try this?
    Extension? Our price is the Elgin Marbles, Greece could say. Best chance they have of ever getting them back.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?
    The point is, the Political Declaration could be revisited now, to make it more friendly to Labour so they might vote for it and we leave the EU in an orderly fashion. Ask yourself why Theresa May refuses to do this.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    It is not that it is the law. It is that it is part of a treaty we signed up to under Gordon Brown and over which we have no power. There is no 'law' to change. If we do not come up with an alternative - a deal, revoke or extend - then we will be leaving no matter how many laws we pass.

    It is sad that this late in the day this still has to be explained. Voting to reject No Deal achieves nothing. We have now perhaps got a temporary respite if the EU deign to agree an extension but otherwise we accept the deal or we revoke. They are the only ways to avoid No Deal.
    Portillo said on This Week he expects the Commons to narrowly vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if no extension granted
    Civil War it is then.
    Like in Christchurch?
    Isn’t that more eco-fascism?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,971

    Good morning, everyone.

    Damn it, I'll have missed the boat. Still, I got really lucky with the Lib Dem leadership contest last time so can't complain too much. I wonder if Cable felt the new threat of the Tiggers meant he should go sooner rather than later.

    TIG is an opportunity rather than a threat. But yes, it's significant because a new leader is required to capitalise on that opportunity.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659

    Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. Conveniently there's more meetings scheduled with the EU in the next couple of weeks already.

    I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
    They didn't renegotiate one word of the WA, as they said they wouldn't. They said they won't renegotiate it over the next couple of weeks, and they won't. At no stage in proceedings have the EU done anything they said explicitly that they wouldn't do. They won't start now.
    And while it requires more actual work to implement, we just said we won't no deal.
    No we didn't. Parliament said that. For better or worse they are not the same thing.
    I don't understand your point. What Parliament decides to do on our behalf will be what matters.
    No. Until they vote 'for' something they are just whistling in the wind. Once the EU decide to grant no further extensions, Parliament must vote to either accept the deal or revoke. Voting to refute a No Deal is like voting to refute gravity.
    The EU voting to grant no further extensions is voting to enforce no deal. Its not going to happen realistically.
    Hypothetically, why shouldn't (say) Slovenia decide that they can leverage their ability to bring about No Deal, in exchange for whatever Slovenia currently wants out of the EU? What happens of three or four countries try this?
    Extension? Our price is the Elgin Marbles, Greece could say. Best chance they have of ever getting them back.
    Spain...(election campaign under way)....Gibraltar....
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter and secondly to go for the 2017 election on the basis that she could then use the resulting Tory majority to steamroller objections.
    However, we are now where we are.
    IMHO the EU leadership has been extremely patient and forbearing, especially as it has a duty to protect Ireland's interests.
    If May has failed so has the EU neither is getting a deal over the line.
    Surely the EU offered a perfectly reasonable deal, then May went back and wanted changes, at the behest of a small group of fully paid up members of the Awkward Squad.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter and secondly to go for the 2017 election on the basis that she could then use the resulting Tory majority to steamroller objections.
    However, we are now where we are.
    IMHO the EU leadership has been extremely patient and forbearing, especially as it has a duty to protect Ireland's interests.
    She has pandered to her right wing from the beginning - allowing them free votes even now - and taken three years to work out a way of bringing pressure on them to face reality. That she has now done so is something but surely it is too late.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    IanB2 said:
    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?
    "which can easily be revisited once we have left."

    Really?
    You think they'll object to us pivoting to a softer Brexit and restoring FoM (which is what it will mean, despite Magic Grandpa's obfuscations)?
    I think they're pissed off with us - and rightly so.

    Brexit is a national embarrassment. It has turned us into an international laughing stock. given our chaotic behaviour, we have not ad.

    We're Little Britain, thanks to the Brexiteers.
    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.
    Yup, even labour’s permanent ‘customs union’ which they say is their non negotiable requirement for support is part of the future harassing agreement, not the two year WA. Though if we intended to adopt a Norway (plus?) style future relationship it would be a case of marching up the hill and down again.

    There is a logic because it means we negotiate our future agreement from a year zero we’re out of everything and let’s opt in on things we both find mutually beneficial rather than you are in, let’s just change nothing except your voting rights.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?
    The point is, the Political Declaration could be revisited now, to make it more friendly to Labour so they might vote for it and we leave the EU in an orderly fashion. Ask yourself why Theresa May refuses to do this.
    Because i) it won't get past the EU and ii) "Softening" Brexit will lead to more trouble on her own benches.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited March 2019

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter and secondly to go for the 2017 election on the basis that she could then use the resulting Tory majority to steamroller objections.
    However, we are now where we are.
    IMHO the EU leadership has been extremely patient and forbearing, especially as it has a duty to protect Ireland's interests.
    If May has failed so has the EU neither is getting a deal over the line.
    Surely the EU offered a perfectly reasonable deal, then May went back and wanted changes, at the behest of a small group of fully paid up members of the Awkward Squad.
    As has been pointed out numerous times for a deal to hold it has to have the commitment of both sides, The EU negotiators pushed their mandate to maximise their interest against a weak UK government. Fair dos, thats their choice, but if it means that the other side cant complete the deal then thats poor megotiation. Likewise if they pushed their advantage and ended up with a deal the other side wont accept long term all theyve done is negotiate a truce.
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    Question now has to be what the EU do next. I am certain they will offer an extension, but it will be a long long one. There is no point in offering a few months - the UK isn't going to do anything with a few months other than continue to self harm.

    So they'll offer years. Which in itself is provocative as it suggests that we completely rethink our approach. I assume that MPs will get to debate whether or not we accept this long long delay?

    As for MV3, it still won't pass. Brexiteers will hold on waiting for the clock to run to zero delivering hard Brexit. Remainers will hold on pushing for either years of extension or revoke. I don't understand why May can't see that it won't pass. Oh yes, I can see why. She is stupid.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    notme2 said:

    Yup, even labour’s permanent ‘customs union’ which they say is their non negotiable requirement for support is part of the future harassing agreement, not the two year WA.

    That's brilliant! I love the Freudian nature of autocorrect.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Just seen the mosque attack headline. Sounds horrific.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Cole,


    "Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter."

    As did all the other parties at Westminster, and that's why all the MPs are having heavy criticism. Grandstanding with a vengeance. They had an instruction, as asked for, from the referendum, and instead of facilitating it, they've done their best to delay things.

    Yes, they will insist they are not mere delivery boys and have a right to blah, blah, blah. Sorry, but the voters thought they would do what they promised for once. Alas, they couldn't put aside party differences to do a specific task. A pox on all their houses.

    Even now, some fail to see our their reputation is below even lawyers and only just above kiddy-fiddlers. This may not be the case on PB but in the wider world ...
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    ydoethur said:

    notme2 said:

    Yup, even labour’s permanent ‘customs union’ which they say is their non negotiable requirement for support is part of the future harassing agreement, not the two year WA.

    That's brilliant! I love the Freudian nature of autocorrect.
    ;) yeah. iPad seems to wilfully autocorrrect.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    Horrendous news from New Zealand
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    I fear it’s too little, too late.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,


    "Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter."

    As did all the other parties at Westminster, and that's why all the MPs are having heavy criticism. Grandstanding with a vengeance. They had an instruction, as asked for, from the referendum, and instead of facilitating it, they've done their best to delay things.

    Yes, they will insist they are not mere delivery boys and have a right to blah, blah, blah. Sorry, but the voters thought they would do what they promised for once. Alas, they couldn't put aside party differences to do a specific task. A pox on all their houses.

    Even now, some fail to see our their reputation is below even lawyers and only just above kiddy-fiddlers. This may not be the case on PB but in the wider world ...

    I would accept that other parties attitudes didn't help, but we don't elect delegates. We elect representatives who are supposed to do their best with the information they have, which may well be more than the general public do.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983
    notme2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    notme2 said:

    Yup, even labour’s permanent ‘customs union’ which they say is their non negotiable requirement for support is part of the future harassing agreement, not the two year WA.

    That's brilliant! I love the Freudian nature of autocorrect.
    ;) yeah. iPad seems to wilfully autocorrrect.
    Mojave, Apple's latest (I think) is a whatsit for that, too.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Surely her first crucial error was to treat this Brexit solely as a party political matter and secondly to go for the 2017 election on the basis that she could then use the resulting Tory majority to steamroller objections.
    However, we are now where we are.
    IMHO the EU leadership has been extremely patient and forbearing, especially as it has a duty to protect Ireland's interests.
    If May has failed so has the EU neither is getting a deal over the line.
    EU negotiators might console themelves that "Ha! The UK comes off worst under No Deal!" Slightly more rational voices in the 27 might wonder what the purpose of the EU is really about, if the price for it being protected is that already fragile economies are plunged into recession.

    When the EU negotiators see short term gain as better than long term pain, they have got the wrong end of the stick on their purpose. They should not expect history to be kind to them.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Cole,

    "Surely the EU offered a perfectly reasonable deal,"

    To a Remainer like you and Mrs May who trust the EU, perhaps..

    But where faith is lacking, there is no certainty. It's a fudge which relies on good faith all round. I'd accept it unwillingly but if we trusted the EU, Remain might have won the referendum.

    The EU is looking after number one, as we know. The refusal even to discuss trade at the beginning showed there'd be no meeting of minds and their agenda isn't ours. Its their way or the highway and many in the UK still want their way.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    "Surely the EU offered a perfectly reasonable deal,"

    To a Remainer like you and Mrs May who trust the EU, perhaps..

    But where faith is lacking, there is no certainty. It's a fudge which relies on good faith all round. I'd accept it unwillingly but if we trusted the EU, Remain might have won the referendum.

    The EU is looking after number one, as we know. The refusal even to discuss trade at the beginning showed there'd be no meeting of minds and their agenda isn't ours. Its their way or the highway and many in the UK still want their way.

    As I said, the EU has concerns for one of its members which looks as though they might have considerable difficulties as a result of Britain's leaving.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931
    edited March 2019
    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,995
    AndyJS said:

    I can't believe an Australian senator has actually posted those comments on Twitter. Unbelievable.

    Indeed.

    If I was An Australian I'd be campaigning to get this guy out of politics. And I'm not a campaigner (*). I hope he gets rightly censured for this.

    It is perhaps time for the more fervent anti-Islam people on here to start considering where their talk can lead.

    (*) In fact, my campaigning skills are so bad that I'd probably do more harm than good ...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    AndyJS said:

    I can't believe an Australian senator has actually posted those comments on Twitter. Unbelievable.

    Indeed.

    If I was An Australian I'd be campaigning to get this guy out of politics. And I'm not a campaigner (*). I hope he gets rightly censured for this.

    It is perhaps time for the more fervent anti-Islam people on here to start considering where their talk can lead.

    (*) In fact, my campaigning skills are so bad that I'd probably do more harm than good ...
    You could campaign for him.

    And preface every comment, 'yeah, he's a mentally deficient racist, but...'

    That might work.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    Christchurch does seem to have suffered a lot recently.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?

    The backstop is all about Theresa May’s red lines.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    It is not that it is the law. It is that it is part of a treaty we signed up to under Gordon Brown and over which we have no power. There is no 'law' to change. If we do not come up with an alternative - a deal, revoke or extend - then we will be leaving no matter how many laws we pass.

    It is sad that this late in the day this still has to be explained. Voting to reject No Deal achieves nothing. We have now perhaps got a temporary respite if the EU deign to agree an extension but otherwise we accept the deal or we revoke. They are the only ways to avoid No Deal.
    Portillo said on This Week he expects the Commons to narrowly vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if no extension granted
    Civil War it is then.
    Like in Christchurch?
    Isn’t that more eco-fascism?
    Eh? What's the eco component?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: just checking the markets (haven't seen practice yet), but Bottas to 'win' qualifying is down from 17 to 9.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?

    The backstop is all about Theresa May’s red lines.

    The backstop is about the future relationship - which the EU have refused to negotiate.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,612
    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited March 2019

    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    It is not that it is the law. It is that it is part of a treaty we signed up to under Gordon Brown and over which we have no power. There is no 'law' to change. If we do not come up with an alternative - a deal, revoke or extend - then we will be leaving no matter how many laws we pass.

    It is sad that this late in the day this still has to be explained. Voting to reject No Deal achieves nothing. We have now perhaps got a temporary respite if the EU deign to agree an extension but otherwise we accept the deal or we revoke. They are the only ways to avoid No Deal.
    Portillo said on This Week he expects the Commons to narrowly vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if no extension granted
    Civil War it is then.
    Like in Christchurch?
    Isn’t that more eco-fascism?
    Eh? What's the eco component?
    One of the shooters self describes himself as an eco fascist.

    http://a65.tinypic.com/29yh08z.jpg
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: Weird. The odds (they were still up on my bet slip) on Ladbrokes have apparently fallen from 17 to 9, for Bottas to be fastest qualifier, but the market doesn't seem to be where it should be.

    Anyway, I'm not one for short odds bets, but if you are there are two you should consider:
    Mercedes, double top 6 finish, 1.53.
    Gasly, top 6 finish, 1.66.

    The sport has been two-tier for the last few seasons now. If that continues, Gasly should get a top 6 finish fairly easily. Of course, he could always bugger it up.

    On Mercedes, they're likely either fastest or second fastest. Again, double top 6 finish should be easy for them.

    As always, reliability problems and driver error can arise, which is why I'm not fond of short odds bets.

    Going to start the pre-qualifying ramble, which will be up today as P3 kicks off around three or four in the morning.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    There’s quite a lot of racial and class tension, not just Maori/white but also resentment of Somali immigrants and so on. It is a lovely place but no idyll. (But then where is?)
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    Trump's sole tweet in the last 5 hours a link to Breitbart.

  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    On topic:

    I’ve already seen “Anyone but Jo” and “Anyone but Davey” posts on Lib Dem forums so far this morning.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    It is not that it is the law. It is that it is part of a treaty we signed up to under Gordon Brown and over which we have no power. There is no 'law' to change. If we do not come up with an alternative - a deal, revoke or extend - then we will be leaving no matter how many laws we pass.

    It is sad that this late in the day this still has to be explained. Voting to reject No Deal achieves nothing. We have now perhaps got a temporary respite if the EU deign to agree an extension but otherwise we accept the deal or we revoke. They are the only ways to avoid No Deal.
    Portillo said on This Week he expects the Commons to narrowly vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if no extension granted
    Civil War it is then.
    Like in Christchurch?
    Isn’t that more eco-fascism?
    Eh? What's the eco component?
    One of the shooters self describes himself as an eco fascist.

    http://a65.tinypic.com/29yh08z.jpg
    I hope he was using low emission rounds.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I thought air crash investigations were usually conducted in secret so they could reach conclusions without prejudging things ? There seems to be a lot of interim information being leaked
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2019
    Horrible news in NZ, puts our local Brexit chaos in perspective.

    Hope the house gets a grip and we end next week in a better place than today. Hopefully with a long delay with a route to a better outcome than the current flawed deal. Or if not possible the current deal and way forward. Either one better than current limbo.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    We know they wont. As supporters on here show they believe the EU will make changes, that the DUP really want to climb down they just need something more even though there is nothing to give.

    Long delays, even remaining, these have been factored into the thinking of the hardliners already. Sure a few more may not have realised how close to no Brexit we are, but others openly acknowledge it and accept it.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,612

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    Up to a point that is true, but like Australia it is very urbanised, with all the problems of city life anywhere. This film set in South Auckland shows some of the violent gang culture, but it could even be found in quite small towns.

    https://youtu.be/N0-Q3ChKcfE
  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    There’s quite a lot of racial and class tension, not just Maori/white but also resentment of Somali immigrants and so on. It is a lovely place but no idyll. (But then where is?)
    Somali migration tends to be ‘problematic’ in many places.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Good morning, everyone.

    Damn it, I'll have missed the boat. Still, I got really lucky with the Lib Dem leadership contest last time so can't complain too much. I wonder if Cable felt the new threat of the Tiggers meant he should go sooner rather than later.

    TIG is an opportunity rather than a threat. But yes, it's significant because a new leader is required to capitalise on that opportunity.
    How are they available opportunity? Haven't they said they're going to run in every seat (and therefore against lib dems)?
  • Options

    Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Y0kel said:


    I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.

    I believe this. But the EU has closed negotiations, so what left is there for May to say to them?
    The EU closed negotiations in November. Didn't stop them having a talk a few days ago. Conveniently there's more meetings scheduled with the EU in the next couple of weeks already.

    I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
    They didn't renegotiate one word of the WA, as they said they wouldn't. They said they won't renegotiate it over the next couple of weeks, and they won't. At no stage in proceedings have the EU done anything they said explicitly that they wouldn't do. They won't start now.
    And while it requires more actual work to implement, we just said we won't no deal.
    No we didn't. Parliament said that. For better or worse they are not the same thing.
    I don't understand your point. What Parliament decides to do on our behalf will be what matters.
    No. Until they vote 'for' something they are just whistling in the wind. Once the EU decide to grant no further extensions, Parliament must vote to either accept the deal or revoke. Voting to refute a No Deal is like voting to refute gravity.
    The EU voting to grant no further extensions is voting to enforce no deal. Its not going to happen realistically.
    Hypothetically, why shouldn't (say) Slovenia decide that they can leverage their ability to bring about No Deal, in exchange for whatever Slovenia currently wants out of the EU? What happens of three or four countries try this?
    Extension? Our price is the Elgin Marbles, Greece could say. Best chance they have of ever getting them back.
    Spain...(election campaign under way)....Gibraltar....
    And it is not just 27 countries demanding concessions from the UK, they could also ask for concessions from the other EU countries e.g. getting Merkel's chequebook out.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    Up to a point that is true, but like Australia it is very urbanised, with all the problems of city life anywhere. This film set in South Auckland shows some of the violent gang culture, but it could even be found in quite small towns.

    https://youtu.be/N0-Q3ChKcfE

    The South Island is very different to the North Island in that regard

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.

    And Labour is going to be in the firing line. People KNOW that Labour is playing games over Brexit. This is not a win for them - as their slide in the polls shows.

    It doesn't have to be that way. There is a huge opportunity for Corbyn to come across as the statesman. He can make the cheap political point that the Conservative Party is "hopelessly split". He can make the cheap political point that May's Deal is shit. But then he could say these two have combined to give us a country that is struggling to find a way through Brexit. This Government has brought us to the cliff edge. However, in the national interest, he will not oppose a call for MV3. And so as to bring an end to the damaging uncertainty the UK faces, to save jobs, to save the economy, to stop small factions having a stranglehold over the government of this country, he will instruct his party to abstain on MV3. If May's Deal falls, if Brexit fails, it will not be down to the Labour Party.......
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    If there is indeed an MV3 it could only pass with some Labour votes. Right now the government should be putting energy into courting them. If it is, it’s invisible.
    It seems to be focusing all its energies on begging to the DUP on the not unreasonable grounds that that will likely get a bunch more Tory votes too and maybe even a few labour ones. But they should be doing both or going full soft Brexit to seek loads of labour votes since given ERG holdouts even if the DUP climb down, it's not just some labour voted they need, its potentially a couple dozen at least.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: hmm, Raikkonen 6th in both practice sessions so far.

    Sounds like a promising young driver for Alfa Romeo.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?

    The backstop is all about Theresa May’s red lines.

    The backstop is about the future relationship - which the EU have refused to negotiate.

    It’s pretty clear that there is no way on earth a future relationship could have been negotiated in two years. If we had tried we’d be in exactly the place we are now for exactly the same reasons.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.

    And Labour is going to be in the firing line. People KNOW that Labour is playing games over Brexit. This is not a win for them - as their slide in the polls shows.

    It doesn't have to be that way. There is a huge opportunity for Corbyn to come across as the statesman. He can make the cheap political point that the Conservative Party is "hopelessly split". He can make the cheap political point that May's Deal is shit. But then he could say these two have combined to give us a country that is struggling to find a way through Brexit. This Government has brought us to the cliff edge. However, in the national interest, he will not oppose a call for MV3. And so as to bring an end to the damaging uncertainty the UK faces, to save jobs, to save the economy, to stop small factions having a stranglehold over the government of this country, he will instruct his party to abstain on MV3. If May's Deal falls, if Brexit fails, it will not be down to the Labour Party.......
    People seem stuck in the notion that voting against the deal is just a political game and they will come good. It’s rejected on principle, people believe it is what is bad for the country. They are not playing games and are unlikely to change.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,612
    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    It is not that it is the law. It is that it is part of a treaty we signed up to under Gordon Brown and over which we have no power. There is no 'law' to change. If we do not come up with an alternative - a deal, revoke or extend - then we will be leaving no matter how many laws we pass.

    It is sad that this late in the day this still has to be explained. Voting to reject No Deal achieves nothing. We have now perhaps got a temporary respite if the EU deign to agree an extension but otherwise we accept the deal or we revoke. They are the only ways to avoid No Deal.
    Portillo said on This Week he expects the Commons to narrowly vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if no extension granted
    Civil War it is then.
    Like in Christchurch?
    Isn’t that more eco-fascism?
    Eh? What's the eco component?
    One of the shooters self describes himself as an eco fascist.

    http://a65.tinypic.com/29yh08z.jpg
    Fascism and Nazism have long incorporated a romanticised attachment to landscape and people, as the past Heimat that they wish to return to, populated by sturdy yeomen peasants, unpolluted by modern cosmopolitanism.

    It is quite different to the internationalist ecology movement led by people like Jacinta Arden.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    If there is indeed an MV3 it could only pass with some Labour votes. Right now the government should be putting energy into courting them. If it is, it’s invisible.
    It seems to be focusing all its energies on begging to the DUP on the not unreasonable grounds that that will likely get a bunch more Tory votes too and maybe even a few labour ones. But they should be doing both or going full soft Brexit to seek loads of labour votes since given ERG holdouts even if the DUP climb down, it's not just some labour voted they need, its potentially a couple dozen at least.
    I don't think the ERG holdouts can be got below 30. They're mad as hell and some of them have been far too committal to climb down now.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Good morning, everyone.

    Damn it, I'll have missed the boat. Still, I got really lucky with the Lib Dem leadership contest last time so can't complain too much. I wonder if Cable felt the new threat of the Tiggers meant he should go sooner rather than later.

    TIG is an opportunity rather than a threat. But yes, it's significant because a new leader is required to capitalise on that opportunity.
    How are they available opportunity? Haven't they said they're going to run in every seat (and therefore against lib dems)?
    There is no way TIG are going to stand candidates against incumbent Lib Dems. Not unless there’s a colossal falling out, and given that Soubry is speaking at Lib Dem conference this weekend, that hasn’t happened yet.

    Target seats like Cheltenham are more the issue, but I expect an accommodation will be reached.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?
    "which can easily be revisited once we have left."

    Really?
    You think they'll object to us pivoting to a softer Brexit )?
    I think they're pissed off with us - and rightly so.

    Brexit is a national embarrassment. It has turned us into an international laughing stock. given our chaotic behaviour, we have not right to expect anything from the other parties involved.

    Why should they agree to anything we ask, when we can't even agree amongst ourselves? They know that we'll just change our minds down the road.

    We're Little Britain, thanks to the Brexiteers.
    Oh for crying out loud people are still whinging about being embarrassed? As a nation we really do need to grow up and allow ourselves to have serious and divisive political debates without worrying that satirists and diplomats get chuckles out of it.

    Better that unfortunate aspect than the implied alternative, where we dont confront our serious political divisions because what might others think, oh no. Diplomatic relations recover quickly once resolution is finally occurred, to do otherwise would be stupid of them.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To lighten the mood a little on this grim morning:

    https://twitter.com/ememess/status/1106335706174115842
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931
    kle4 said:

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    If there is indeed an MV3 it could only pass with some Labour votes. Right now the government should be putting energy into courting them. If it is, it’s invisible.
    It seems to be focusing all its energies on begging to the DUP on the not unreasonable grounds that that will likely get a bunch more Tory votes too and maybe even a few labour ones. But they should be doing both or going full soft Brexit to seek loads of labour votes since given ERG holdouts even if the DUP climb down, it's not just some labour voted they need, its potentially a couple dozen at least.

    She’d get them very easily if she could compromise. There are a number of Labour MPs who would jump with some meaningful movement from Mrs May.

  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    There’s quite a lot of racial and class tension, not just Maori/white but also resentment of Somali immigrants and so on. It is a lovely place but no idyll. (But then where is?)
    surprised you'd say that because I've lived in NZ for 14 years and I've never heard of Somali immigrants let alone resentment of them, although I understand that there are issue in Melbourne.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Giles Fraser has defected to the SDP.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that l.

    Much as slature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    cent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Parliament not functioning is due to a combination of

    FTPA which can produce zombie governments
    Mays botched election scewing up the Parliamentary numbers

    The FTPA has to go as it removes the sanction of losing power from government MPs so they can be as mad as a box of frogs and face no downside

    May will also have to go as she cant lead a government post Brexit
    That mps decide to act so recklessly is not a problem with legislation its a cultural problem.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    If there is indeed an MV3 it could only pass with some Labour votes. Right now the government should be putting energy into courting them. If it is, it’s invisible.
    It seems to be focusing all its energies on begging to the DUP on the not unreasonable grounds that that will likely get a bunch more Tory votes too and maybe even a few labour ones. But they should be doing both or going full soft Brexit to seek loads of labour votes since given ERG holdouts even if the DUP climb down, it's not just some labour voted they need, its potentially a couple dozen at least.

    She’d get them very easily if she could compromise. There are a number of Labour MPs who would jump with some meaningful movement from Mrs May.

    That’s true. But she doesn’t. Accusing them of playing games hinders the process. May always defaults to backing her right wing.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    To lighten the mood a little on this grim morning:

    https://twitter.com/ememess/status/1106335706174115842

    Star wars fans, the really intense ones, are completely bonkers.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,995
    kle4 said:

    Oh for crying out loud people are still whinging about being embarrassed? As a nation we really do need to grow up and allow ourselves to have serious and divisive political debates without worrying that satirists and diplomats get chuckles out of it.

    Better that unfortunate aspect than the implied alternative, where we dont confront our serious political divisions because what might others think, oh no. Diplomatic relations recover quickly once resolution is finally occurred, to do otherwise would be stupid of them.

    "Oh for crying out loud, are leavers still whinging about the EU?" the sane amongst us could have asked for decades.

    The problem is not that our political debate is divided: it is that our politics is borken. There are massive issues facing the country going forward, and for over two years our political system has been obsessing with the EU.

    Brexit has consumed our politics, and not to our advantage.

    And yes, it is embarrassing.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    kle4 said:

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    If there is indeed an MV3 it could only pass with some Labour votes. Right now the government should be putting energy into courting them. If it is, it’s invisible.
    It seems to be focusing all its energies on begging to the DUP on the not unreasonable grounds that that will likely get a bunch more Tory votes too and maybe even a few labour ones. But they should be doing both or going full soft Brexit to seek loads of labour votes since given ERG holdouts even if the DUP climb down, it's not just some labour voted they need, its potentially a couple dozen at least.
    I don't think the ERG holdouts can be got below 30. They're mad as hell and some of them have been far too committal to climb down now.
    I agree. Maybe 25 at a stretch? But labour are key.

    Maybe that's the plan - get dup for mv3 then work on labour for mv4. It's just crazy enough to not work.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329

    kle4 said:

    The Sun says:

    IT is surely now obvious to Tory Brexiteers that defeating Theresa May’s deal again will be a disastrous act of self-harm.

    Some are waking up to it. Too many are holding out for something better.

    It’s not coming.

    Mrs May’s shock victories last night leave her battered agreement as still somehow the only viable option, even if she has been humiliatingly reduced to asking the EU for a short delay.

    Kill it again next week and that’s it.

    The PM will be ordered to beg a long delay, swallowing any conditions Brussels wants to impose.

    Remainer MPs will take back control, as they failed to do last night by only two votes, and Tory support will collapse.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8641594/theresa-may-brexit-deal-self-harm/

    Will even the most Bone-headed ERG members get it?

    If there is indeed an MV3 it could only pass with some Labour votes. Right now the government should be putting energy into courting them. If it is, it’s invisible.
    It seems to be focusing all its energies on begging to the DUP on the not unreasonable grounds that that will likely get a bunch more Tory votes too and maybe even a few labour ones. But they should be doing both or going full soft Brexit to seek loads of labour votes since given ERG holdouts even if the DUP climb down, it's not just some labour voted they need, its potentially a couple dozen at least.
    I don't think the ERG holdouts can be got below 30. They're mad as hell and some of them have been far too committal to climb down now.
    I agree with that.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,612

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    Up to a point that is true, but like Australia it is very urbanised, with all the problems of city life anywhere. This film set in South Auckland shows some of the violent gang culture, but it could even be found in quite small towns.

    https://youtu.be/N0-Q3ChKcfE

    The South Island is very different to the North Island in that regard

    Much less Polynesian certainly, and when I was there Christchurch was more Anglo Saxon than any other place I have lived, hardly any celts even. Nonetheless Christchurch had some vicious bikie gangs that would attack each other fairly frequently, and quite an active drug culture, mostly abused prescription drugs, a problem for us in the Emergency Dept.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Parliament not functioning is due to a combination of

    FTPA which can produce zombie governments
    Mays botched election scewing up the Parliamentary numbers

    The FTPA has to go as it removes the sanction of losing power from government MPs so they can be as mad as a box of frogs and face no downside

    May will also have to go as she cant lead a government post Brexit
    The real problem is FPTP which allows extremists to sit in safe seat without any incentive to compromise.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,659

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.
    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1106336166201176064
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.

    And Labour is going to be in the firing line. People KNOW that Labour is playing games over Brexit. This is not a win for them - as their slide in the polls shows.

    It doesn't have to be that way. There is a huge opportunity for Corbyn to come across as the statesman. He can make the cheap political point that the Conservative Party is "hopelessly split". He can make the cheap political point that May's Deal is shit. But then he could say these two have combined to give us a country that is struggling to find a way through Brexit. This Government has brought us to the cliff edge. However, in the national interest, he will not oppose a call for MV3. And so as to bring an end to the damaging uncertainty the UK faces, to save jobs, to save the economy, to stop small factions having a stranglehold over the government of this country, he will instruct his party to abstain on MV3. If May's Deal falls, if Brexit fails, it will not be down to the Labour Party.......
    People seem stuck in the notion that voting against the deal is just a political game and they will come good. It’s rejected on principle, people believe it is what is bad for the country. They are not playing games and are unlikely to change.
    Believing your opponent is just being opportunistic or doesn't really understand what they are doing is a crutch we all use from time to time, it is scary that legislators actually believe it is always true and theres no chance even those taking what might appear a stupid position believe what they say.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    Giles Fraser has defected to the SDP.

    Which lucky party has got shot of him?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    No surprise there, some form of CU and SM BINO in return for extension is likely
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.

    And Labour is going to be in the firing line. People KNOW that Labour is playing games over Brexit. This is not a win for them - as their slide in the polls shows.

    It doesn't have to be that way. There is a huge opportunity for Corbyn to come across as the statesman. He can make the cheap political point that the Conservative Party is "hopelessly split". He can make the cheap political point that May's Deal is shit. But then he could say these two have combined to give us a country that is struggling to find a way through Brexit. This Government has brought us to the cliff edge. However, in the national interest, he will not oppose a call for MV3. And so as to bring an end to the damaging uncertainty the UK faces, to save jobs, to save the economy, to stop small factions having a stranglehold over the government of this country, he will instruct his party to abstain on MV3. If May's Deal falls, if Brexit fails, it will not be down to the Labour Party.......
    People seem stuck in the notion that voting against the deal is just a political game and they will come good. It’s rejected on principle, people believe it is what is bad for the country. They are not playing games and are unlikely to change.
    I might have some sympathy for that view if Labour had a coherently different offering on Brexit.

    They don't.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2019

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.
    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1106336166201176064
    Angry man ranting on the telly. Not a good look for Leave. We need a route to agreement, this is not it.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    We are going through all this hassle and humiliation so we can (supposedly) obtain some trade deals. Brexiteers are still unable to provide a significant example of a business that wanted different deals from what we had with the EU.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    The EU has refused to negotiate our future relationship until we have left.

    Mrs May's 'red lines' are about that future relationship - which hasn't been negotiated yet.

    Simon Jenkins suggestions are about the future relationship and have nothing to do with the Withdrawal Agreement - which is about settling accounts, creating a transition phase to negotiate that future relationship, AND a 'Backstop' necessitated by the EU's refusal to negotiate a future relationship before we've left - which may well sink the whole deal.

    Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?

    Its not pretty, but, after a fashion, its working - this is a feature, not a bug.

    It isn't working. It really isn't.

    "Much as foreign commentators and politicians like to point and laugh, how many of their heads of government have been on their feet for 19 hours in recent weeks putting their case to the legislature?"

    I wrote a section earlier and then deleted it, stating how history might show May with some credit in this mess. It's not her mess, whatever PB's self-proclaimed master negotiators say. She's tried damned hard to get a deal (which many on here said she wouldn't get) - and one that is acceptable to many leavers on here. She's tried to sell it.

    The problem is that parliament is not functioning; it has utterly broken down. Too few are willing to make the compromises a working democracy requires.
    Parliament not functioning is due to a combination of

    FTPA which can produce zombie governments
    Mays botched election scewing up the Parliamentary numbers

    The FTPA has to go as it removes the sanction of losing power from government MPs so they can be as mad as a box of frogs and face no downside

    May will also have to go as she cant lead a government post Brexit
    The real problem is FPTP which allows extremists to sit in safe seat without any incentive to compromise.
    Wouldn't they still get elected under PR, just not as Conservatives?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.

    And Labour is going to be in the firing line. People KNOW that Labour is playing games over Brexit. This is not a win for them - as their slide in the polls shows.

    It doesn't have to be that way. There is a huge opportunity for Corbyn to come across as the statesman. He can make the cheap political point that the Conservative Party is "hopelessly split". He can make the cheap political point that May's Deal is shit. But then he could say these two have combined to give us a country that is struggling to find a way through Brexit. This Government has brought us to the cliff edge. However, in the national interest, he will not oppose a call for MV3. And so as to bring an end to the damaging uncertainty the UK faces, to save jobs, to save the economy, to stop small factions having a stranglehold over the government of this country, he will instruct his party to abstain on MV3. If May's Deal falls, if Brexit fails, it will not be down to the Labour Party.......
    People seem stuck in the notion that voting against the deal is just a political game and they will come good. It’s rejected on principle, people believe it is what is bad for the country. They are not playing games and are unlikely to change.
    I might have some sympathy for that view if Labour had a coherently different offering on Brexit.

    They don't.
    You’ll make no progress if you continue to be dismissive.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    Charles said:

    I thought air crash investigations were usually conducted in secret so they could reach conclusions without prejudging things ? There seems to be a lot of interim information being leaked
    If that’s a totally factual statement (and it looks like it is) then it’s fine.

    It’s jumping to conclusions or motives that they don’t do.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    There’s quite a lot of racial and class tension, not just Maori/white but also resentment of Somali immigrants and so on. It is a lovely place but no idyll. (But then where is?)
    Indeed.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,612

    kle4 said:

    Oh for crying out loud people are still whinging about being embarrassed? As a nation we really do need to grow up and allow ourselves to have serious and divisive political debates without worrying that satirists and diplomats get chuckles out of it.

    Better that unfortunate aspect than the implied alternative, where we dont confront our serious political divisions because what might others think, oh no. Diplomatic relations recover quickly once resolution is finally occurred, to do otherwise would be stupid of them.

    "Oh for crying out loud, are leavers still whinging about the EU?" the sane amongst us could have asked for decades.

    The problem is not that our political debate is divided: it is that our politics is borken. There are massive issues facing the country going forward, and for over two years our political system has been obsessing with the EU.

    Brexit has consumed our politics, and not to our advantage.

    And yes, it is embarrassing.
    A Leave deal forced through by May by coercion and threats, without any real buy in by either MPs or electorate is highly likely to unravel swiftly afterwards. Certainly it will be very hard to move to the next stage. No Deal is in some ways preferrable, as it gives at least some certainty.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/brexit-option-compromise-referendum-vote-theresa-may-labour

    It is no longer only May and her deal that are on trial. So too is the House of Commons, and whether it is any longer a useful adjunct to responsible government. When Britain is out of this mess, parliament must reform. It should use its impending exile from the Palace of Westminster to galvanise its future as a legislature. It should leave London for a while and immerse itself in the provinces. It should find a voting system that better reflects popular opinion. The bloated House of Lords should be replaced. A fairer balance is needed between England and the UK’s other nations.

    Only then will this farrago have served some purpose. As it is, Britain must this weekend await enough MPs with the guts to cross the bridge of compromise. Nothing else will do.

    The sensible compromise is clear: soft Brexit. It is variously codenamed common market 2.0, or Norway, or customs union, or EEA. Under it, Britain leaves the EU but remains in Europe’s wider economic zone. Such an off-the-shelf package is known to be acceptable to Brussels. It respects the pleas of industry and commerce not to wreck Britain’s continental trade for pie-in-the-sky “deals with the rest of the world”.

    Possibly so.

    But whats that got to do with the WA?

    It's a matter for the "Political Declaration" which can easily be revisited once we have left.

    If even someone like Jenkins is as clueless on this, why are we surprised MPs are too?

    The backstop is all about Theresa May’s red lines.

    The backstop is about the future relationship - which the EU have refused to negotiate.

    It’s pretty clear that there is no way on earth a future relationship could have been negotiated in two years. If we had tried we’d be in exactly the place we are now for exactly the same reasons.

    The one thing that makes me keep reluctantlty returning to No Deal as possibly the way to go now is the notion that we will NEVER get to the point where we can do a trade deal with this EU. But we are paying £39 billion to discover if my fears are well founded....

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    The obvious play.

    Pincer movement on May from both sides of the channel, with the ERG stabbing her in the back at the same time.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see that even on UKIP Home, support for the WA has doubled to 40%. It seems that some people are starting to think "Gosh, I never realised that voting against Brexit could stop Brexit from happening."

    We leave on March 29, it's the law became a mantra. Repeated endlessly until absorbed in the heart.
    That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
    It is not that it is the law. It is that it is part of a treaty we signed up to under Gordon Brown and over which we have no power. There is no 'law' to change. If we do not come up with an alternative - a deal, revoke or extend - then we will be leaving no matter how many laws we pass.

    It is sad that this late in the day this still has to be explained. Voting to reject No Deal achieves nothing. We have now perhaps got a temporary respite if the EU deign to agree an extension but otherwise we accept the deal or we revoke. They are the only ways to avoid No Deal.
    Portillo said on This Week he expects the Commons to narrowly vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit if no extension granted
    Civil War it is then.
    Tyndall finally loses his tenuous grip on reality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xb82v7wh1Fw
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    Charles said:

    I thought air crash investigations were usually conducted in secret so they could reach conclusions without prejudging things ? There seems to be a lot of interim information being leaked
    Usually they’re pretty quick at making interim statements, if something potentially significant to other aircraft might be the cause (as is clearly the case here).

    On the other hand, it could just be a case of ‘Welcome to Africa’.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.
    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1106336166201176064
    That'd be more compelling if so called brexiteers were not saying remaining is fine.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    There’s quite a lot of racial and class tension, not just Maori/white but also resentment of Somali immigrants and so on. It is a lovely place but no idyll. (But then where is?)
    surprised you'd say that because I've lived in NZ for 14 years and I've never heard of Somali immigrants let alone resentment of them, although I understand that there are issue in Melbourne.
    Interesting. We have family in the Wellington outer suburbs and it’s a fairly big issue there. Maybe it’s localised?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,612

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    If you watched QT last night from Ealing (yeah, that Ealing, you know, the one with three Labour MPs - hardly the hotbed of Leave....) then there was very considerable anger at the games being played by politicians.

    And Labour is going to be in the firing line. People KNOW that Labour is playing games over Brexit. This is not a win for them - as their slide in the polls shows.

    It doesn't have to be that way. There is a huge opportunity for Corbyn to come across as the statesman. He can make the cheap political point that the Conservative Party is "hopelessly split". He can make the cheap political point that May's Deal is shit. But then he could say these two have combined to give us a country that is struggling to find a way through Brexit. This Government has brought us to the cliff edge. However, in the national interest, he will not oppose a call for MV3. And so as to bring an end to the damaging uncertainty the UK faces, to save jobs, to save the economy, to stop small factions having a stranglehold over the government of this country, he will instruct his party to abstain on MV3. If May's Deal falls, if Brexit fails, it will not be down to the Labour Party.......
    People seem stuck in the notion that voting against the deal is just a political game and they will come good. It’s rejected on principle, people believe it is what is bad for the country. They are not playing games and are unlikely to change.
    I might have some sympathy for that view if Labour had a coherently different offering on Brexit.

    They don't.
    If it is no different, then why doesnt May support Corbyns plan?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    Oh for crying out loud people are still whinging about being embarrassed? As a nation we really do need to grow up and allow ourselves to have serious and divisive political debates without worrying that satirists and diplomats get chuckles out of it.

    Better that unfortunate aspect than the implied alternative, where we dont confront our serious political divisions because what might others think, oh no. Diplomatic relations recover quickly once resolution is finally occurred, to do otherwise would be stupid of them.

    "Oh for crying out loud, are leavers still whinging about the EU?" the sane amongst us could have asked for decades.

    The problem is not that our political debate is divided: it is that our politics is borken. There are massive issues facing the country going forward, and for over two years our political system has been obsessing with the EU.

    Brexit has consumed our politics, and not to our advantage.

    And yes, it is embarrassing.
    The point was politics gets embarrassing sometimes and that seems more worrying to people than it being broken. After all they lead with hiw embarrassing it is. We do need to get past this EU issue. We also need to stop being worried to tackle issues because its embarrassing. It is not either or - I too think we should remain now, but is just silly how many people open with being embarrassed as a reason to do or not to things.

    If revoke is in our best interests we should do it even though its humiliating. It leaving is on our best interests we should do it even though others laugh at us. I dont know why people prioritise their embarrassment.

    And it is prioritised as people dont stop banging on about it and what others think.
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    Our family has great affection for New Zealand and especially Christchurch where our eldest son emigrated to 15 years ago and we have visited several times. Though our eldest son now lives in Vancouver he retains ties with friends and ex work colleagues there.

    This attack is evil in it's purest form and we need as a Country, especially in light of Brexit, to make a concerted effort to bring all our communities together in total condemnation of all intolerance

    I posted this on my facebook page this morning and know PB forum will join in our condolences and sympathy to all Kiwis

    To all Kiwis

    We have woken up to the horrific attacks in Christchurch and just cannot believe it. Tears are shed for that beautiful City, it's people and the whole Country. Such hatred is beyond belief and we must alll stand against the bigotted and twisted minds of those who think like this. May the Good Lord comfort all those affected and our prayers are for all Kiwis everywhere.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Horrible, horrible news from New Zealand. Like many others on here, I have a lot of family down there and have visited quite a few times. It’s a beautiful place, devoid of all pretensions; peaceful, quiet, friendly; somewhere to escape to. Because of our close links and the history, this feels like an attack on us, too. All love and solidarity to all Kiwis everywhere. And sincerest condolences to the families and friends of all the victims.

    When I first heard the radio say 'news from Christchurch,' I assumed there had been another earthquake. Because of all countries in the world, New Zealand is about the last one you would associate with mass shootings.
    I lived just across Hagely Park from the mosque when I worked at Christchurch Public Hospital.

    There was a shooting spree in Cathedral Square shortly after I arrived. NZ has quite a high rate of gun ownership, though typically hunting rather than automatic weapons. Quite a lot of drugs and gangs too. You always see the seamy underside of a place in an Emergency Dept. Lovely country and city on the whole though, and best climate of any place I have ever lived.
    That’s interesting.

    The perception i get of NZ from here is a sleepy idyllic rugged/rural ideal.
    There’s quite a lot of racial and class tension, not just Maori/white but also resentment of Somali immigrants and so on. It is a lovely place but no idyll. (But then where is?)
    Absolutely. New Zealand is a wonderful country but there was a post on a thread here lauding it as a near utopia (compared to the UK and, IIRC, California) but nowhere can live up to those expectations. All countries have their own problems, different problems to ours, maybe similar in some respects, but it’s unfair on anywhere to hold it up to a mirror of its own supposed perfection.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    AndyJS said:

    Giles Fraser has defected to the SDP.

    Are the SDP preparing to stand in local elections I wonder? Not a bad idea if the TIG don’t have a party, or maybe they will act as the political vehicle for the TIG types in the EU elections?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    MPs don't have to obey public opinion. They often don't.

    But on this occasion the MPs asked the public to decide and pledged to implement the result. They lied knowingly, and that to the electorate is both an insult and a challenge. For me, it's a matter of principle now, rather than party politics or even our future with the EU.

    "It's the ERG's fault, it's labour playing party politics" don't really matter. It's the fact they lied and assumed they'd get away with it because we're stupid that rankles.

    I wouldn't say MP's lied. The world moved on.

    What did Supermac say was the great problem in politics "event, dear boy, events!'
This discussion has been closed.