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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

So another day and more uncertainty over what is going to happen over brexit just 11 days away from the March 29th article 50 deadline. The Commons speaker, John Bercow, ruled in the house this afternoon that the government could not bring the deal plan back to the house for a further vote. He was applying the the rule that in any one session The Commons can only make a decision once.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    First!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited March 2019
    Second like Mark Francois in a 1-horse race.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    @Casino_Royale - it’s all over for the PM, Brexit, the Tory Party, or all 3?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2019
    Bercow'e ruling had a precedential basis (not that he cares about that if it is not what he wants to do), but the biggest reason to criticise things is he's probably dragged out some crucial votes by another week. He could have just let MV3 be lost tomorrow!

    May, it is time for LabourBrexit - that'd get through.
    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    The most annoying thing is really just that it pushes back the nonsense a few more days.

    It makes sense to be fair. Why vote before the EU meetings this week and risk it falling again. Bercow has given TM cover to let the HOC decide after the EU have had their say
    But that still doesn't alter his point: even after the EU summit she can't bring it back to the house unless it has changed. Simply extending our departure isn't an alteration to her deal.
    She can if the HOC votes for it and it is the only way a referendum amendment could be made
    No she can't. That's what Bercow's ruling meant. She cannot table the Withdrawal Agreement again unless it is substantially different.

    Unless, for instance, it then includes a referendum pledge.
    No. He has said that Parliament can vote to suspend that standing order.
    Indeed. It's not insurmountable. But given various people think remain or no deal have become a lot more certain because of Bercow's actions, the incentive for all those necessary to switch to supporting the deal to suspend the standing orders has to be pretty low.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    RoyalBlue said:

    @Casino_Royale - it’s all over for the PM, Brexit, the Tory Party, or all 3?

    It could be, yes.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    It depends if the EU allow any extra time.
    How much
    And for what.

    We certainly have less control now.

    We can revoke or no deal, but those are the only two choices within our control unless the deal returns.

    Anything else is with the permission of the EU
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    The ruling is surely right under procedure and precedent. And it still looks unlikely the deal would have passed, in any event.


    Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    My suspicion is that the ERG (thinks it) has some tricks up its sleeve to try and thwart an extension. I doubt they are right, but who knows?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.

    Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.

    End of No Deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    The ruling is surely right under procedure and precedent. And it still looks unlikely the deal would have passed, in any event.


    Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.

    In a Russian nesting doll kind of way can a vote to suspend standing orders [in order to propose something more than once] itself be proposed more than once?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092

    IanB2 said:

    The ruling is surely right under procedure and precedent. And it still looks unlikely the deal would have passed, in any event.


    Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.

    In a Russian nesting doll kind of way can a vote to suspend standing orders [in order to propose something more than once] itself be proposed more than once?
    I don't know for certain but my expectation would be that any speaker would rule that repeatedly putting the same procedural motion before the floor is time wasting and wouldn't be allowed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    Yes. The referendum didn’t say “Leave the EU with a deal.

    While a deal is preferable it’s not necessarily controlling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    That's why I ask "if the government did not agree to stop it?"

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Has she told you that?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Er, what just happened?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?
  • SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Casino. I think you're probably right about her revoking but Parliament might do so?
  • This is tremendously exciting.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?
    She is implacably opposed to No Deal.

    She's not about to hand the ERG their victory after all they have done to her and her deal.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.

    https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E
  • IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    I hope you are right but there could be unintended consequences as this goes through the next ten days

    I agree with TSE
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    May just got Erskined.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    Casino. I think you're probably right about her revoking but Parliament might do so?

    How can they?

    How can they change or revoke the A50 Act?

    How can they instruct Sir Tim Barrow to deliver an instruction on behalf of HMG?

    They are the legislature, not the executive.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.
    No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.

    Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.

    End of No Deal.

    What is statute 24 emergency?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?
    I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).

    However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
  • Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    No its not yet, much as we would both like it to be
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    He's probably right. Mind you, the ERG reckoned her deal wasn't Brexit anyway.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Something has changed.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.
    No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.
    They’ve got to repeal legislation they’ve already passed. If the government does not cooperate, how do they do that?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?
    I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).

    However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
    Look if push comes to crunch, she will tag a referendum onto her deal. Labour would probably swallow that ... and certainly would if the alternative was No Deal.

    That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kjohnw said:

    Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.

    https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E

    If the other 26 agreed an extension, I think Salvini would be lynched.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    kjohnw said:

    Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.

    https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E

    Favour to Farage or Putin?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    That's where I think we're heading too.
  • Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.
    No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.
    Nothing is 100% in this and there are many very well versed posters who concur it is not out of the question yet
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
    If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.

    Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.

    End of No Deal.

    What is statute 24 emergency?
    I think there may be confusion with Standing Order 24 Emergency Debate - but that’s a debate, not legislation, which is what is required.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    I do not want to sound arrogant but that was my immediate thought on listening to Bercow live
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2019
    May has really screwed this up to a degree previously unimaginable. It was clear the deal would fail last summer, what was impossible to see was that she would be unable to react, to adapt or to come up with another approach. Remarkable.

    What is also remarkable is that so many smart people went along with it for so long.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.

    Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.

    End of No Deal.

    What is statute 24 emergency?
    Cobra meeting !!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    So, would now be a good time to ask the DUP if they would have backed the deal? It'd be nice to know how close MV3 might have gotten.

    Although now the question has been taken from them I would think they will quickly come out and say they weren't going to back the deal anyway - no point in suggesting they were bending when they won't even get the chance to bend. And the DUP are not fans of being called benders of course.
  • kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
    Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.

    So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.
    No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.
    What will this statute actually say?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    May has really screwed this up to a degree previously unimaginable. It was clear the deal would fail last summer.

    Er, no it wasn't since the deal was not announced until after the summer. It was clear her hoped for Chequers would fail in the summer.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    So, would now be a good time to ask the DUP if they would have backed the deal? It'd be nice to know how close MV3 might have gotten.

    Although now the question has been taken from them I would think they will quickly come out and say they weren't going to back the deal anyway - no point in suggesting they were bending when they won't even get the chance to bend. And the DUP are not fans of being called benders of course.

    As in poker, you have to pay to see the cards.
  • Jonathan said:

    Something has changed.

    Yes but to whose benefit
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Not going to happen but would be hilarious if Salvini did block an extension then seeing panicked MPs realise it is actually May's Shit Deal or No Deal and May's Shit Deal needs ramming through Parliament PDQ.

    Something tells me Bercow would allow MV3 in those circumstances. Even if nothing had changed in the motion.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited March 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    Isn't the mechanism for Parliament to force the executive to do something the making of a "humble address" to the Crown? This is was how they got the legal advice released.

    I agree that it's next to impossible for the Commons to force revoke by passing a statute of its own volition as it'd have to pass the Lords too and get Royal Assent, which could lead to the government advising the monarch to withhold assent for the first time since 1708.

    I personally think May will revoke if forced to the choice. I know I keep banging on about commencement of the relevant parts of the EUWA but surely if May wanted to rule out revoke altogether she would have commenced the Act by now?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    To read Mrs May correctly is to have literally no idea what she would do in that situation. That is exactly what she intends and from the above she seems to have succeeded.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The PM is now going to pretty-please the EU for an extension which, if they do not grant it, will really mess us up. All we need now is for Jacob Rees Mogg to play with that cube from "Hellraiser" and the apocalypse will begin.

    Tthis is the censored version. The uncensored one uses some very bad language.

  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    This could mean the end of the Tories. Which makes it all so worthwhile
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
    Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.

    So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
    If the EU reject an extension, and I don't think they will since they too don't want to confront things, then I am quite sure Bercow will decide the changed political situation means parliament can vote again on something else he would like.
  • This is tremendously exciting.

    Indeed. I'm almost upset that having been brutally binned off from my old employer last October with a fat sack of cash I managed to land a fab new job with a big pay rise at the start of January. Had I still been an unemployed dosser I could have used my fat sack of cash to be sat in parliament eating popcorn and shouting "bollocks" from the public gallery
  • Fenman said:

    This could mean the end of the Tories. Which makes it all so worthwhile

    I prefer to see it as the destruction of the British Euroscepticism movement.

    We’ll have rejoined in the next decade.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Yang now matched at 14 on Betfair...
  • SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?
    I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).

    However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
    Look if push comes to crunch, she will tag a referendum onto her deal. Labour would probably swallow that ... and certainly would if the alternative was No Deal.

    That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.
    To be honest it may be prudent to keep an open mind as this is higly volatile and anything could happen by accident or design
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    Casino. I think you're probably right about her revoking but Parliament might do so?

    Parliament does not have that power. It's for government, possibly with parliament's consent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    Bercow got a chance to strut in the Chamber, probably got tumescent, but he at least had some backup precedent this time.
  • Sean_F said:

    kjohnw said:

    Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.

    https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E

    If the other 26 agreed an extension, I think Salvini would be lynched.
    Would be funny if we got vetoed having had to eat glass and beg for an extension...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited March 2019
    To the person who once backed Michelle Obama at 9.0 for the Dem nomination on Betfair: What were you thinking?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.
    Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?
    I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).

    However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
    Look if push comes to crunch, she will tag a referendum onto her deal. Labour would probably swallow that ... and certainly would if the alternative was No Deal.

    That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.
    To be honest it may be prudent to keep an open mind as this is higly volatile and anything could happen by accident or design
    In that regard nothing has changed, what we’re seeing at the moment is a lot of people waking up to that fact. May was never in control.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,234
    Ok. Pause.

    Um.

    Am I actually going to win my bet?
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
    Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.

    So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
    If the EU reject an extension, and I don't think they will since they too don't want to confront things, then I am quite sure Bercow will decide the changed political situation means parliament can vote again on something else he would like.
    A Vote Leave staffer texted me that we’re 12 days from punch a Leaver day.

    I keep on reminding/reassuring him that No Deal is just Project Fear.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    May was going to lose again, anyway; now at least she has someone to blame. We desperately need to move on from her futile strategy and the hope must be that the ruling turns minds toward something more sensible to do to force some sort of a decision.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
    If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.
    I’m with Casino on this.

    Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...

    To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.
    That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.
    I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.
    No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.
    They’ve got to repeal legislation they’ve already passed. If the government does not cooperate, how do they do that?
    They don't need to repeal the EUWA, except as a tidying-up exercise sometime in the future, if it hasn't been fully commenced. This is why I think it is very significant that the government has not yet commenced it.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Fenman said:

    This could mean the end of the Tories. Which makes it all so worthwhile

    What could mean the end of the Tories? Revocation or no deal. If it's the former I'd agree. If it's the latter who knows it all depends how it pans out. However a deal is far more optimal than either both for the Tories and the UK.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
    Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.

    So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
    I don't think they'll reject it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    May was going to lose again, anyway; now at least she has someone to blame. We desperately need to move on from her futile strategy and the hope must be that the ruling turns minds toward something more sensible to do to force some sort of a decision.

    I really assumed she would turn to a referendum solution months ago, but she has surprised me. Bercow was obviously impatient for that switch as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
    If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.
    I’m with Casino on this.

    Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...

    To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...
    “Destroys the Country”. Set the hyperbole to 11.
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
    Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.

    So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
    I don't think they'll reject it.

    Only takes one to reject. With a Spanish election on the horizon Gibraltar becomes a live issue there and here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If the EU vetos an extension then I doubt May will revoke. She will regret it, she doesn't want No Deal but I think she would [with quite some backing] be able to say that Parliament had an option to remove No Deal from the table by backing her deal . . . but didn't; the EU had the option to remove No Deal from the table by granting an extension . . . but didn't; so buckle up because we're leaving on 29 March. She's honoured the non-binding vote by Parliament to request an extension already but is prepared to give Parliament one more chance to back her deal to remove no deal from the table.

    It won't happen though. The EU won't [extremely unlikely event of Salvini playing silly buggers aside] actually veto an extension.
  • IanB2 said:

    My suspicion is that the ERG (thinks it) has some tricks up its sleeve to try and thwart an extension. I doubt they are right, but who knows?

    The letters to Brady trick turned out fantastically
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.
    And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Er, what just happened?

    The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.
    Crivvens
    My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.
    Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.
    Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.

    So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.

    Doubt it. In that case I think TM would revoke, and at the same time indicate this is only to buy time to get ready for a no deal, triggering Art 50 again say in 6 months. An excuse could be that the EU in not yet prepared for no deal, or something like that.

    But I'm not sure TMs deal is quite out of the picture yet.

  • People's vote could still pass. If it becomes an integral part of MV3 - that's enough of a change for a vote to happen.

    Question is what happens now. May has insisted her deal must pass her deal will pass. Now it can only go to another vote if it is augmented with a referendum or an election. And she wants neither of those. But she has to do something. Perhaps her tiny robot brain will explode from her head and reveal she really is the Maybot
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    Guardian: Certainly the prime minister’s strategy has depended on eliminating options, so that eventually MPs would conclude that the only feasible Brexit on the table was hers. For that to work, she needed to keep bluffing and keep raising the stakes. She didn’t realise that ultimately, in parliament, it’s the Speaker who runs the game. And now all bets are off.
  • So have the Irish overplayed their hand?

    Are German carmakers set to play the role of Gandalf at first light on the fifth day at Helm’s Deep?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
    I think that's right.

    However, I also think that she would probably lose a dozen MPs to the TIGgers if she were to look like she was about to chose No Deal.

    Could she then lose a VoNC? If so, what would the consequence of that be?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
    I think that's right.

    However, I also think that she would probably lose a dozen MPs to the TIGgers if she were to look like she was about to chose No Deal.

    Could she then lose a VoNC? If so, what would the consequence of that be?
    Could Remain-er MPs get together to elect a temporary PM to request an extension? (Or propose revocation?)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    It’s all over, isn’t it?

    Yes.

    At least, May's deal is. So is No Deal.
    I would agreean sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...
    Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.

    But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
    If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?
    Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.
    I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.
    need be.
    You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.

    She won’t.

    She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.

    She’ll never revoke.
    If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.
    I’m with Casino on this.

    Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...

    To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...
    “Destroys the Country”. Set the hyperbole to 11.
    It's not necessarily hyperbole. No one has ever held a national referendum, seen the biggest vote in British history for the winning side - only for that vote to be simply cancelled, and ignored. Revoked.

    It would be unprecedented in our democratic history. It would be, in a sense, the END of our democratic history. Who knows what that would do to us. Civil strife is not unthinkable. Elections would be boycotted. Etc etc. All pretty catastrophic if not quite nation-breaking.

    A referendum is a miserable way to solve this, but it is surely, now, the least miserable choice, if TMay's Deal is really dead.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092

    IanB2 said:

    My suspicion is that the ERG (thinks it) has some tricks up its sleeve to try and thwart an extension. I doubt they are right, but who knows?

    The letters to Brady trick turned out fantastically
    That strategy climaxed prematurely, as one might expect from the ERG. Had they hit her with it the day after the massive rejection of MV1, things might have turned out differently.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Still no official word from government. Which can mean only one thing. Cabinet has not been permitted to even discuss this, entirely foreseeable, possibility.
    The long rumoured wave of resignations must surely come to pass when it finally is allowed to.
This discussion has been closed.