Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though TMay slumped to her worst ever Ipsos-MORI PM ratin

SystemSystem Posts: 11,019
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though TMay slumped to her worst ever Ipsos-MORI PM ratings & Corbyn has the second worst Opposition leader rating

Just out today is the latest Ipsos-MORI political monitor whicht has the Tories taking a lead of 4% over labour. Last time the two main parties were level pegging.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT

    You'd have thought people would have learnt by now the British public don't react well to Project Fear scaremongering.

    People aren't thick. The more bullshit gets spread, the more unbelievable it becomes, undermining the true worries.

    The scare stories have gotten so stupid now. We won't have fresh food, medicine, planes won't fly. The car industry will be wiped out. Not one of those will happen. The more that gets spread, the more it gets sensible people's backs ups and we think "why are you lying to me".

    The truth is mundane, no deal will be an inconvenience. There may be problems we haven't foreseen. It could cost some business.

    Your trust in politicians’ ability to shield the British public from a disastrous No Deal is quite something.

    I have zero trust in polticians abilities.

    I think No Deal won't be disastrous because I have trust in business and individuals abilities to shield themselves.

    Consider it a laissez-faire Brexit.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,979
    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Vince who?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Fourth
  • Options
    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Good - maybe the new Lib Dem leader will finally be able to capitalise on the current fustercluck. (Though in reality I only give one of the rumoured candidates a chance of doing so.)
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Vince who?
    That will be what his 34% "don't know" voters asked.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Scott_P said:
    I thought it sounded like the leader of the Labour party ....
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    Corbyn's problem is not alleged antisemitism. That's a red herring. It is his attitude to Brexit that turns people off.

    There were reports a couple of days ago that he is tired and fed up. Perhaps McDonnell can persuade him to go for the good of the party and the project.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304

    FPT

    You'd have thought people would have learnt by now the British public don't react well to Project Fear scaremongering.

    People aren't thick. The more bullshit gets spread, the more unbelievable it becomes, undermining the true worries.

    The scare stories have gotten so stupid now. We won't have fresh food, medicine, planes won't fly. The car industry will be wiped out. Not one of those will happen. The more that gets spread, the more it gets sensible people's backs ups and we think "why are you lying to me".

    The truth is mundane, no deal will be an inconvenience. There may be problems we haven't foreseen. It could cost some business.

    Your trust in politicians’ ability to shield the British public from a disastrous No Deal is quite something.

    I have zero trust in polticians abilities.

    I think No Deal won't be disastrous because I have trust in business and individuals abilities to shield themselves.

    Consider it a laissez-faire Brexit.
    Well, my employer will be shielding itself you're correct. Unfortunately that will entail moving their entire logistics operations from Britain to the Netherlands.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy

    EU deals always go down to the wire, it's the way things are done. I'd be more worried if it was tied up quickly, I'd wonder what's different this time?
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.

    Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957
    Unfortunately May remains the most popular Tory. No, me neither.
    Anyone else (almost) in Labour would poll better than Corbyn
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    edited March 2019
    I hoped the EU would help bring things to an end, but sadly they want parliament to have a few more weeks to talk over each other incessantly about nothing too. Go figure.

    Would it not be more in their interests to just say an extension to 11 April to decide what we want? It's not like it is being kind to May to pretend the deal might get approved before then.

    On the other matter I simply don't believe polls showing Tory leads. If there's a GE that proves me wrong, fine, but this is not a matter of really wanting them to suffer, it's not like I care at all for Corbyn's Labour, but I simply cannot believe a government like this could lead in the polls.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_P said:
    You get the impression they might have to prise her out of Downing Street...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And if she doesnt....

    VONC
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    Scott_P said:
    I detect Selmayr's scheming mind behind this.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Barnesian said:

    Corbyn's problem is not alleged antisemitism. That's a red herring. It is his attitude to Brexit that turns people off.

    There were reports a couple of days ago that he is tired and fed up. Perhaps McDonnell can persuade him to go for the good of the party and the project.

    He will want May to go first so he can enjoy her downfall
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    I hoped the EU would help bring things to an end, but sadly they want parliament to have a few more weeks to talk over each other incessantly about nothing too. Go figure.

    Would it not be more in their interests to just say an extension to 11 April to decide what we want? It's not like it is being kind to May to pretend the deal might get approved before then.

    On the other matter I simply don't believe polls showing Tory leads. If there's a GE that proves me wrong, fine, but this is not a matter of really wanting them to suffer, it's not like I care at all for Corbyn's Labour, but I simply cannot believe a government like this could lead in the polls.

    One word - Corbyn
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    glw said:

    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy

    EU deals always go down to the wire, it's the way things are done. I'd be more worried if it was tied up quickly, I'd wonder what's different this time?
    May missed a trick not saying "if you want the deal to be passed so much, change the backstop".
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    dixiedean said:

    Unfortunately May remains the most popular Tory. No, me neither.
    Anyone else (almost) in Labour would poll better than Corbyn

    I think that's right. Labour's problem is pretty much Corbyn. Remove him and by and large you have sorted the problem out. Remove May from the Conservative Party and the problems are still there.
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    The Eu hold the power over Brexit now, not powerless talking shop that is the British parliament. And the EU backs May. Because EU own the WA and prefer their solid orderly WA document happening now or manage the no deal, they don’t like it dragging on and very real impact dragging on will now have on EU financially and reputationally.

    They have made their choice and Dublin seems to be on side with it. In fact when UK crash out without a deal the pubs in Dublin will be bouncing. Maybe economically they don’t have much to celebrate, though anticipate their powerful EU friend bending backwards to help them, but Dublin pubs celebrating is key actually. the delight not just in Dublin but around the world as Britain burns hundreds of years of being strong and stable and having the upper hand. it doesn’t matter if you don’t see it that way, only that they do.

    This crisis in Britain now has been a growing shadow across these lands for the last 25 years at least. Preferring Blair as PM over Hague and Howard masked what was really happening, masked that Labour had no answer to the negative impacts of globalisation, de industrialisation, no government then or since will tackle looming social care and NHS time bombs, and the only answer to British unease over immigration to UK in EU single market has been brexit.

    So lets be honest and see the role nationalism and identity has played in this brexit outcome, right from the start in the 97 GE as Maastricht sank into the English mindfulness. there were two union jacks behind Theresa May as she addressed the nation this week, yet she is oblivious to how this crisis challenges them, threatening to make them relics from a bygone age, if those union jacks are weaker today than ever it proves what this whole process has underlined, its not the British parliament anymore is it? Its not a British Brexit, it’s the English who have done this.

    It’s the ego of a Captain of this world that wore the pips for hundreds of years, and couldn’t face going back into the ranks when the inevitable time came.

    Unless you actually believe such times may never come?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977
    Then we crash out on the 12th but it won’t be the EUs fault.

    And remember as I continually repeat the only game in town here, is who else can I blame and here the EU is passing the buck back to someone else.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    glw said:

    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy

    EU deals always go down to the wire, it's the way things are done. I'd be more worried if it was tied up quickly, I'd wonder what's different this time?
    As it's a working dinner and they are Eurocrats surely they are just working their way through the courses and will come out after their now infamous cheese and biscuits?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,274

    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Vince who?
    The Cable Guy
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957

    glw said:

    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy

    EU deals always go down to the wire, it's the way things are done. I'd be more worried if it was tied up quickly, I'd wonder what's different this time?
    May missed a trick not saying "if you want the deal to be passed so much, change the backstop".
    I believe she may have mentioned that before.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Vince who?
    The Cable Guy
    I thought he was called Larry?
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    To protect her deal, and moreover herself, she'd have to say "I'll take the 22 May part but not the 12 April part", and ideally do it about five minutes before Tusk comes out to make the announcement.

    No, I don't think so either.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.

    Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
    Considering we haven't left yet but already have employment at highest levels not seen since before we joined the EU - looks like yes we're already having it/its coming.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy

    EU deals always go down to the wire, it's the way things are done. I'd be more worried if it was tied up quickly, I'd wonder what's different this time?
    May missed a trick not saying "if you want the deal to be passed so much, change the backstop".
    I believe she may have mentioned that before.
    Yes but the EU haven't actually panicked about no deal before tonight.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    How does that work?

    We may be about to find out
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    Theresa could announce tomorrow that she's standing down as Con leader and triggering a Con leadership contest.

    But she'd still have to stay on as acting PM and if she refuses to delay A50 we still leave a week tomorrow...
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except May's idea of working out what to do next will probably be to try MV4 and then insult everyone in Parliament. Possibly simultaneously.
    The best outcome is that MV3 goes down by more than MV2. Even May won't go for MV4 then.
    I'd think it would go down by more. There were some people prior to Bercow's ruling that were saying it was time to vote for it, albeit not enough (and the DUP seem to have gone silent, but then they don't give a damn what happens either way), but particularly now the EU offer is quite clear about receiving other options in mid April, well, why should anyone not already on board back it now? Why should people who reluctantly backed it before back it now?

    I guess the only reason the EU included the wording about the deal is so that May has to bring it to the vote really - she has to at least try to get it passed, not just sit on her heels for 2 and a half weeks.

    kle4 said:

    I hoped the EU would help bring things to an end, but sadly they want parliament to have a few more weeks to talk over each other incessantly about nothing too. Go figure.

    Would it not be more in their interests to just say an extension to 11 April to decide what we want? It's not like it is being kind to May to pretend the deal might get approved before then.

    On the other matter I simply don't believe polls showing Tory leads. If there's a GE that proves me wrong, fine, but this is not a matter of really wanting them to suffer, it's not like I care at all for Corbyn's Labour, but I simply cannot believe a government like this could lead in the polls.

    One word - Corbyn
    Nope, still do not get it. This is a government in, for once, genuine actual crisis. It's paralysed, its incompetent, there's no unanimity of purpose, no authority. Corbyn's bad, but 4 pts behind the Tories bad? No way.

    Good night all. Another 3 weeks of this crap, my gods. 1 day, that's all it should take, 1 day! Vote after vote after vote.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    Remain is the only way to MAKE IT STOP
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    Scott_P said:
    It allows time for the Commons to vote for Common Market 2.0 SM and CU BINO
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    If there were to be another vote then I would expect Leave to exceed 52%. People don't like to be told to vote again.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Winchester_by-election
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    SeanT said:

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    BE AFRAID, YOU RACIST IDIOTS!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,274

    rcs1000 said:

    And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?

    Vince who?
    The Cable Guy
    I thought he was called Larry?
    "I forgive you. I only hope my neurologist will feel the same."
  • Options
    There's no easy way to get her out - bunker mentality now.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    Too little, too late. They should have sacked her in December.

    I seem to recall you being pleased she won in December. How does that feel now?
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    Remain is the only way to MAKE IT STOP
    That's not bad, to be fair. If there is a 2nd vote you should be the campaign manager, because they will need a good one. They will also have to lock up all the people like Blair and Campbell and Adonis and the sneerers. One hint of sneering at the proles and Remain will lose.

    Will the lofty, up-their-own-arses Told You So Remainers be able to restrain themselves over a whole campaign? Tricky.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CON doing better than LAB

    FACT

    CON heading for overall majority GE2019 then smooth Brexit

    FACT
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Easy. You don't consult the members. The MPs decide amongst themselves. 2 days max.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    There are two equal sized fired up tribes. There isn't "the Brits". There is them and there is us.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Scotland = :lol:

    FACT
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Ave_it said:

    CON doing better than LAB

    FACT

    CON heading for overall majority GE2019 then smooth Brexit

    FACT

    Brings back some memories..
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931
    Looks like I’ll be in Northern Ireland on 12th April. That seems very appropriate all of a sudden!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I seem to recall you being pleased she won in December. How does that feel now?

    She saw off the ERG, and now she is about to kill Brexit.

    Feels pretty good...
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Ave_it said:

    CON doing better than LAB

    FACT

    CON heading for overall majority GE2019 then smooth Brexit

    FACT

    Now fact me till I fart.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    BBC confirming initial EU conclusions unconditional extension until 12th April even if Deal fails to allow the Commons to vote for an alternative and extension until May if Deal passed
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Looks like I’ll be in Northern Ireland on 12th April. That seems very appropriate all of a sudden!

    I am going to France on the 29th March, and I fly to Las Vegas on the 12th April. Piquant.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Ave_it said:

    CON doing better than LAB

    FACT

    CON heading for overall majority GE2019 then smooth Brexit

    FACT

    Not according to Survation and Comres!
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,415
    Suddenly everyone wants to get rid of May just when the numbers are swinging in favour of her deal. Utterly transparent.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    :lol: = :lol:
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    Suddenly everyone wants to get rid of May just when the numbers are swinging in favour of her deal. Utterly transparent.

    You must have been out last night and missed her offensive charm.
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    He's completely lost it. He was screaming for Revoke this morning. And he claims to be a calm, measured lawyer of a eurosceptic bent. lol.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    These warnings are beginning to wear a bit thin, because there's a consistent record of more right-of-centre tories being more willing to act on their threats ; and also probably why they've largely gained control of the party in the first place. There's something about the combination of being conservative in the sense both of deferential to authority and party unity on the one hand, and unfavourable to radical change on the other, that seems to make these people consistently come off worse to the free market and nationalist radicals for 40 years now.

    I could be wrong ofcourse, and they could be about to break the habit of a Conservative lifetime - but it would be shocking.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977

    Suddenly everyone wants to get rid of May just when the numbers are swinging in favour of her deal. Utterly transparent.

    Numbers from where? The erg hate it, the DUP still hype it and she insulted anyone else likely to rebel and vote for it.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,415
    IanB2 said:

    Suddenly everyone wants to get rid of May just when the numbers are swinging in favour of her deal. Utterly transparent.

    You must have been out last night and missed her offensive charm.
    It was being said aplenty before her statement.
  • Options
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Suddenly everyone wants to get rid of May just when the numbers are swinging in favour of her deal. Utterly transparent.

    Where are the numbers doing that? Nowhere that matters.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,415
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's completely lost it. He was screaming for Revoke this morning. And he claims to be a calm, measured lawyer of a eurosceptic bent. lol.
    Who cares who is is? Why do we get treated to what some nobody on Twitter is saying?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    kle4 said:

    I hoped the EU would help bring things to an end, but sadly they want parliament to have a few more weeks to talk over each other incessantly about nothing too. Go figure.

    Would it not be more in their interests to just say an extension to 11 April to decide what we want? It's not like it is being kind to May to pretend the deal might get approved before then.

    On the other matter I simply don't believe polls showing Tory leads. If there's a GE that proves me wrong, fine, but this is not a matter of really wanting them to suffer, it's not like I care at all for Corbyn's Labour, but I simply cannot believe a government like this could lead in the polls.

    The Conservatives are in a similar position to Labour from 2003-05, seriously unpopular, but still preferred to the Opposition.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    IanB2 said:

    Suddenly everyone wants to get rid of May just when the numbers are swinging in favour of her deal. Utterly transparent.

    You must have been out last night and missed her offensive charm.
    It was being said aplenty before her statement.
    Now, not so much. Go watch last night's Peston.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's completely lost it. He was screaming for Revoke this morning. And he claims to be a calm, measured lawyer of a eurosceptic bent. lol.
    As I’ve continually posted today anyone who has worked in business can see a dead project where continuing won’t work. The question is how do you revert rather than continue.

    As for an example just look at the TSB migration and our preparation for No Deal is far less than TSBs.
  • Options

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Looks likely that the revoke petition will hit 2 million by midnight.

    Peak banter would be if it hit 17,410,743 at 11pm on the 29th.
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Publicity-shy bookie PaddyPower offering 9/1 on TMAy PM exit date being March. Can't see the rules though, so don't know whether the trigger is 'announces I Quit' or 'new PM comes back from Buck House'. If it's the former it's monster value, and if it's the latter it's rubbish.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    These warnings are beginning to wear a bit thin, because there's a consistent record of more right-of-centre tories being more willing to act on their threats

    Yeah, but that was before Tezza urged lynch mobs on live TV...
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    Scott_P said:
    Looks like we could be far more prepared for NO DEAL than the government has been letting on?

    Maybe explains why Theresa's relaxed about it?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Easy. You don't consult the members. The MPs decide amongst themselves. 2 days max.
    Arguably, not consulting the membership got the Tories where we are now. Another stitch-up in Westminster?
    Remember, this is choosing the PM, not the leader of the opposition.
    What if they aren't acceptable to DUP? GE.
    It is fourteen, count 'em,14 years since a Conservative leader was selected by the membership. What do they pay their subs for?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Barnesian said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    There are two equal sized fired up tribes. There isn't "the Brits". There is them and there is us.
    The potential difference is Labour's ground machine, which barely ticked over last time, with both national campaigns being effectively Tory led and the ground machine for Remain relying on small numbers of LibDems and Greens.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like we could be far more prepared for NO DEAL than the government has been letting on?

    Maybe explains why Theresa's relaxed about it?

    Signing gagging orders may be as far as they got though...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Easy. You don't consult the members. The MPs decide amongst themselves. 2 days max.
    Arguably, not consulting the membership got the Tories where we are now. Another stitch-up in Westminster?
    Remember, this is choosing the PM, not the leader of the opposition.
    What if they aren't acceptable to DUP? GE.
    It is fourteen, count 'em,14 years since a Conservative leader was selected by the membership. What do they pay their subs for?
    As I said it’s 3 months max to fix the immediate crisis. Then there is a vote with members having a say.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931
    SeanT said:

    Looks like I’ll be in Northern Ireland on 12th April. That seems very appropriate all of a sudden!

    I am going to France on the 29th March, and I fly to Las Vegas on the 12th April. Piquant.

    I am also in France on 29th March!

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like we could be far more prepared for NO DEAL than the government has been letting on?

    Maybe explains why Theresa's relaxed about it?
    If people were confidently prepared they wouldn't need to be gagged.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    glw said:

    Sky -

    Still no sign of communique as leaders are now going backwards and forwards discussing ideas with TM and it may be hours yet

    The whole brexit is crazy

    EU deals always go down to the wire, it's the way things are done. I'd be more worried if it was tied up quickly, I'd wonder what's different this time?
    May missed a trick not saying "if you want the deal to be passed so much, change the backstop".
    One interesting thing about this is that the "EU will blink" line of thinking has completely disappeared (although they just blinked on their no-extension-for-faffing stance).
  • Options
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like we could be far more prepared for NO DEAL than the government has been letting on?

    Maybe explains why Theresa's relaxed about it?
    I don't really see the big deal about this. It's normal for any commercial discussion to be subject to an NDA.
  • Options
    franklynfranklyn Posts: 297

    Looks likely that the revoke petition will hit 2 million by midnight.

    Peak banter would be if it hit 17,410,743 at 11pm on the 29th.

    Would have been much higher if the website had been working
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CON Maj 80 if GE now

    National Interest
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    It’s not possible. The Tories only chance will be for Corbyn to remain leader and I suspect that wouldn’t be the case for long.

    Even then Boris on the ballot would be enough for me to debate who I should vote for.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    There are two equal sized fired up tribes. There isn't "the Brits". There is them and there is us.
    The potential difference is Labour's ground machine, which barely ticked over last time, with both national campaigns being effectively Tory led and the ground machine for Remain relying on small numbers of LibDems and Greens.
    I was thinking of people rather than campaigns. People who are signing the revoke petition and marching on Saturday on the one hand. On the other hand are the people in the Brexit march and on QT.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The banter heuristic now requires May to reject the EU deal...
This discussion has been closed.