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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cart
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cartoon from Marf
Today PB celebrates it’s 15th birthday, making it, I’d suggest, just about the longest surviving major political blog in the UK.
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I still recall backing Galloway in the Bradford by-election at ridiculous odds early on, and making the most money I had ever collected on a single bet.
The night of the Glasgow East by-election, when the SNP nicked a hitherto unwinnable seat on the recount, was fun too.
The site has been greatly helped by a TSE, my deputy, and a team of really excellent contributors who are providing political commentary not seen in the MSM. Thanks to all of them.
Even the dullest threads would not go amiss in the MSM and contributions from Mr Meeks, Mr Herdson & Cyclefree (to name but three, there are others) routinely offer more insightful analysis and better writing than to be found elsewhere.
In addition, although we often disagree profoundly on whats best for the country, the vast majority of posters contribute constructively and without rancour - well done too!
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1109173453993725952
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1109093283970596869
I found my way here (originally lurking mostly) a couple of years later via Anthony Well's UK Polling Report blog and won my first political bets thanks to the tips on Obama and Boris for London Mayor.
Its quite remarkable to think about how much has changed and occured in the last 15 years but I find this site to give better coverage than almost anywhere else. This site's coverage of election nights even is more detailed and quicker than the BBC or anything else can manage.
Take a bow, you should all be very proud of what you've created here. Thank you and well done.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/all-about/birmingham-pub-bombings
But Boeing disabled the “yoke jerk” function when it brought out the 737 MAX, the latest version of its top-selling jet - and many pilots were unaware of the change, aviation experts told Reuters.
The difference may help explain why pilots struggled to keep their aircraft climbing after takeoff on two fatal 737 MAX flights less than five months apart that killed 346 people.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-controls-explainer-idUSKCN1R322M
Back in 2004 I was a moderate (though solid) Conservative voter in my late 20s... over these 15 years I've transitioned (via becoming a floating voter) through to my present status as an active member of my local Liberal Democrat branch in my mid 40s. Although national events would have taken me on this political journey anyway; I don't hesitate to credit the discussions here with helping in some small way to refine and modify my outlook.
I continue to appreciate the friendly debate that uniquely spans all points of view without all the usual vitriol you find elsewhere on the net.
Thanks guys!
Even if I contribute rarely, and mostly on non-UK politics, lurking on this site has been part of my daily routine since the 2005 GE campaign, and I very rarely spent more than a week without checking it.
And many thanks to you, the able sidekicks and esteemed regulars.
And everyone on here for making it one of the more civilised places to visit.
And on the same day surely the Revoke petition will become the largest ever on the Downing Street petitions site? Already nearly 3.9 million.
Many Happy returns PB! I starting as a lurker in 2008, I think.
(*My first ever post was exactly one year after the Site began.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47675261
With her usual decisiveness, May suggests that it... might not happen.
It is a good chart, though.
Fingers crossed for Biden/Harris....
I guess we’ll have to see what Parliament makes of the idea - or if they can even agree on what they think.
Many congratulations, Mr S, and the team. And many thanks to all the contributors who provide real insights into 'what the world thinks".
As is often said, many of the threaders are better than those that appear in the MSM.
I think that's where we are?
So tinkering with the political declaration is very likely just displacement activity, designed to burn up,a few more days.
The real question is whether Parliament can manifest the will to do anything about it, or as is perhaps more likely, remain a collection of impotent factions.
Congrats to Mr. Smithson (and his trusty assistants). I have to admit, I thought the blog was even older than that (I joined back in 2007).
Long may it continue!
Again, most people who hate it are over simplifying and then confusing the two.
I also started in 2005 in the run up to GE2005 and Blair's 3rd victory.
It's a good place.
Fifteen - PB - the spotty adolescent of the political world. At times full of angst, hormones and regular betting wet dreams. Intense friendships are formed, first love blossoms and party political onanism must be curbed. Yes we've had it all :
Fantastic tips, exclusive reports, robust debate, banning orders, rescinded orders, wonderful threads and that's just TSE's wardrobe !! .... Some of the old and bold have gone to the great betting site in the sky and OGH clings to the memory of folicular resplendence whilst counting his winnings. Pineapple pizza is the staple diet of the masses and yet PB cruises through the years.
All hail Admiral Mike Smithson and God bless the good ship PB and all who sail in her.
If so, what is the point of these indicative votes? Surely it boils down to deal or no deal (and the only point of the latter is if you are concerned that we will be unable to negotiate a suitable future relationship and be locked into the backstop).
Or am I missing something?
They don't understand it.
A great, great site.
To be critical, I wouldn’t have included “transition” in there (although its positioning does highlight it’s a gradual disengagement)
But the chart does make very clear that it’s FoM which is the decisive question.
(That’s not necessarily the same as immigration, of course, which is the biggest frustration. Addressing FoM without having had to change our treasured non-contributory system would have lanced the boil IMV)
I must have started posting about 10 years ago - if I recall correctly my first post referred to 'Gideonomics'.
I've still never placed a political bet, however.
I am getting an immense, and perhaps slightly perverse, pleasure out of the current political turmoil and PB has to be my site of choice to feed my habit.
For the same reason I don't really see how you do another form of Brexit without first removing TMay and replacing her with someone the opposition can trust. It's not obvious who this would be. But I suppose once you've found one unicorn in the form of a non-terrible brexit, you can follow it home and see if there's another unicorn there in the form of a Tory trusted by Labour MPs.
This is what makes the Kyle-Wilson approach such a great way out of the treacle, because the factions can pass binding legislation then leave it to the voters to decide who wins, which avoids the need for them to trust each other.
....remembering the days of the 10 Gordons through the changing Gold Standards to those who are no longer with us and those who have chosen rebrands....... through the evenings of the Nighthawks to the nights of the lagersheds to the humour and (sometimes) rancour of the contributors to the genius of their predictions......
Mike's 50/1 on Obama when the politerati had never heard of him.
How some of us laughed
.... The Hurdson post that told us it wasn't going to happn for Mrs May while the lady herself was putting champagne on ice....
.....We weren't laughing anymore...
Someone asked me the other day why no one had thought about the Northern Ireland problem before.....
....."But they have" I said. PB has been talking about nothing else since before the referendum".
For keeping us all better informed than anyone else many thanks PB
Probably a good point to remember those who are no longer here to post. I remember fondly the posts of SBS or was it SDS (sorry) who posts were insightful and with humour, Mark Senior who was forthright and dedicated and Plato who certainly livened up the site. There will be more I have forgotten, or we just don't know about.
I joined just about at the beginning, but can't remember how I found out about the site. I was a very regular poster then, but for many years after just became a lurker.
My fondest memories are the laughs. You are all so entertaining and write so well, but specifically getting a smile from JackW for a joke ( a true tribute), having an argument with SeanT about the existence of God and not being insulted (I guess that was a failure) and being subtlety outed by someone who worked out who I was and having never been able to work out who he/she is.
Keep it up everyone.
Now off to my very first protest march at the age of 64.
However, I do think Guido was up earlier. Samizdata and Harry’s Place also.
The nursing and other staff were very good though.
The situation was complicated by Mrs C developing gall bladder problems the night before my operation, which mean that we were both in hospital together, albeit in different wards. My elder son has been dashing about between Essex and Kent. Fortunately he's in a postion where he can either work from home or take some time off.
Heartfelt thanks to Mike and Robert for the site, and to the many insightful contributors. I'd just single out one whom I always read: DavidL, whose consistently intelligent contributions enable me to understand positions (Tory, Leave) that I do not share.
Guido Fawkes’ blog (as it was then styled) was started on September 4, 2004.
https://order-order.com/about/
Regarding Matthew Goodwin, the responses to his post say it all. But we have been here umpteen times and you really should have grasped it by now.
Compromise.