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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time
Brexit means Brexit, Theresa May once said. Even at the time, the slogan was widely derided as meaningless and nebulous – though politically, there’s value in something that’s all things to all people. Indeed, Labour is engaging in an almost identical exercise at the moment, where almost nothing is ruled out but very little is explicitly ruled in: everything remains on the table, presumably in the hope that someone else will make the decision and so avoid Labour landing with any of the blame.
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Very sorry to miss the birthday thread. I think i’ve Been here on and off since 2006 and hope to be for a long time to come. Thank you all for making this site as compelling as it is.
However I consider that 'Revoke and Think Again' is the best way forward from the mess we are in right now.
All the EU have asked by extending to April 12th is the Commons gives it some indication of what it will vote for which it will do, then either the Commons votes for the Withdrawal Agreement on that basis with the Political Declaration amended accordingly or to revoke Article 50 or for EUref2. If necessary the Commons will also vote to contest the European Parliament elections over No Deal and for a lengthy extension which the EU will grant on that basis
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1109460317506097152?s=20
As I've stated before, were this a business project given the current state of the project you would be binning it and start again. Revoke does exactly that.
That will also lead to a Labour government - do we really want the red shirts in power?
Will be far, far worse than Brexit.
Like i said on TPT before 10am this morning, I said organisers would try and claim a million today (as it’s a great headline) and like fucking clockwork, here it is.
Credit where credit is due: at least they’ve broken cover and are being honest on that now.
I do think that the WA will pass having been decoupled from the PD but if it doesn't, yes, No Deal beckons.
Anyone making this argument now will evaporate to precisely zero if revoke happens, and will instead say it’s all over and it’s time to move on.
One BILLION marchers!
/DoctorEvilvoice.
Article 50 isn’t a pause/play button.
As I said. It is a mark of her ability.
I can't see the MPs adopting revoke without putting it to the people in a second referendum (regardless of the petition and the true number on the march). So, that leaves Deal (of which there is only one on the table) or No Deal. Very simple in procedural terms: HMG proposes motion supporting WA; ERG propose an amendment adding in the word "not" somewhere. If amendment passes, we go out with no deal.
Which is why, as I said this morning, I simply cannot see the point of these indicative votes. They deal with the post-exit relationship. All of those so far suggested are compatible with the WA as drafted: for example, the final agreement could simply replace the backstop with a permanent customs union and make provision for SM access to continue after the end of the implementation period if we were to adopt the Corbyn model. (And Corbyn's model could be greated from scratch by agreement out of the chaos that will have followed No Deal.)
And, I expect it to fail. My side has soiled itself with absolute fanatics.
Why doesn’t No.10 hire him as an advisor?
I tangled with Plato many times and she was a doughty, tireless and forthright proponent for her views and PB is better for such passion and diversity, less we become an echo chamber for the safe, the prevailing and the conventional view.
Similarly I also missed the news of the death of Mark Senior when it was announced on PB. He was the epitome of the dreaded yellow peril and I much enjoyed his own passionate advocacy of his brand of Liberalism. He also advised me several times in relation to Jacobite numismatic history and related sales. My collection thanked Mark regularly.
On this the 15th birthday of our revered site it is appropriate to recall the Plato's, Mark Senior's and other celebrated PBers who no longer "Post Comment" with those of us who continue to enjoy Mike Smithson's pleasurable little political foible.
In the UK its invariably the well off white middle classes departing their million pound plus homes and their nice gardens for a stroll round central London (or their rural equivalents on the Countryside alliance marches) in relation to their latest 'right on' concern. Their biggest concern in many cases being not being able to retire to Tuscany or that their nice cheap Eastern European builders and plumbers (so much cheaper than the Brit who used to do it before and charged VAT!) might not be around much longer.
Here its rarely the poor who protest anymore - if it was then it would be a far more 'diverse' crowd of Londoners. How many from Richmond and Kingston - vs say Barking and Dagenham or Newham where a lot of residents really do have something to complain about in life?
Some people really have been driven mad by Brexit.
Results might have been messy but if there was line by line voting on "should the UK remain in the single market" the other red-line determining issues, before Article 50 was triggered then at least the politicians would have had clearer parameters mandated to them.
https://odileeds.org/projects/petitions/241584
Meeting Hamas the wags are saying, but probably visiting a foodbank.
Thanks - that looks relatively organic. From previous experience, you can often tell when Russians are involved by the timezones.
Not saying there aren't huge numbers of multiple signing - there will be, especially by obsessives, given how easy it is with the site doing basically no checks. There's a limit how much difference that makes though.
It is therefore unwise to allow them anywhere near a ballot box where these things are concerned.
June 2016 and the 1000 days since shows what happens if you do.
A big defeat in December, followed by indicative votes, after a period of reflection and consultation over Christmas, would have at least given us some idea of where we stood. And a little, if not a great deal, of time to practically achieve something.
Unfortunately, the leadership simply doubled down. And doubled down.
On the other hand, I think that treating EU membership as a purely technocratic endeavour, that only the learnèd might comprehend, and that the little people should be excluded as far as possible from such discussions in order that their confused brains would not addle the issue, is a great part of what - over the course of several decades - got us into this mess in the first place.
Once the big emotive identity-bound nation-defining In/Out issue had been voted on, that might have been a good opportunity to really discuss what, on a technical level, "we" want yet.
How many MPs backing a permanent Customs union membership could describe its downsides - and what it for example means for Turkey (the only equivalent large nation in the or sorry 'a' EU customs union but not in the EU or Single market). If it was such a good option in isolation - why don't Iceland, Norway or Switzerland join in a customs union with the EU?
Prediction - there’ll be no £3 entry fee to get a vote in the next Labour leadership contest!
However, retired Swansea builder Fred Jones, who voted Leave, told BBC Wales he found arguments espoused by some Remainers patronising.
"I wouldn't say that I'm passionate one way or the other, but I am fed up of being told I voted Leave because I am in my nineties, or because I'm stupid and didn't know what I was voting for," he said.
"I knew full well that leaving was going to cause upheaval and hardship in the short term, but would eventually allow Britain to decide for ourselves what sort of country we want to be.
"But the main reason why I don't believe in another referendum is that it will solve nothing - we'll be having the same arguments in three years' time."
I have a couple of 90-something friends (that's what being an organist in the Church of England does for you...) and they're generally quite careful not to make predictions about what they'll be doing in three years' time, but maybe Mr Jones is exceptionally well preserved.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
Given this, the sensible course of action is to agree the European parliament elections. But Brexit has never been sensible so far.
Democracy is not clean and straightforward. It doesn't involve highly educated and informed people sitting around in mutual contemplation of the great issues of the day, no matter how much some people might like to portray it that way.
I find it strange you do not want people to have a direct vote on matters of such constitutional importance on the grounds of ignorance and yet are still happy to have those same ignorant people vote to elect their representatives to make laws for us.
Something that the current situation shows they are supremely unsuited for.
https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584
I am allowed to have an opinion and i am allowed to express that opinion.
We see this with all the detailed arguments re Brexit - at least 90% of people who voted Leave have no interest whatsoever in the detail (except immigration) - they just want to Leave - because they think it's the right thing to do and will make them feel good. Which is why if May's deal (or any deal which the ERG don't like) goes through the Leave voting public will be content.
They'll happily accept a Single Market or Common Market. Why? Well everyone was happy with the Common Market in the 70s and 80s. Even Mrs Thatcher was happy with the Common Market. If it was good enough for Mrs T it will certainly be good enough for 90%+ of Con Leave voters.
"Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet. " was the part you didn't copy.
You are allowed and I encourage you to have opinions and express them. You seem to have no trouble doing that. I'd also encourage you to do so fairly and rationally.
Why would any of the MPs who don't feel bound by having voted for the invoking of A50 feel bound to support any particular variety of leaving the EU.
This would be especially true if the indicative votes had taken place before the GE.
One of the most tedious aspects of Brexit is looking at a block of voters and saying they all think the same
You may be interested in Mark Senior's valediction (right word?) from Mike. It's here:[1] There is also an online obituary but I can't find it...
@Casino_Royale
Plato died at home of natural causes aged 51 on 29th June 2018. Her IRL name was Phillippa She had apparently been unwell for some time, but had refused to see a doctor. @Gadfly had emailed her brother and posted[2] the info on PB on November 14th 2018. I think this was her old blog[4]. @Gadfly also paraphrased a quote from her brother, thus:
...It was such a shock to me to be called by the police. Philippa was enjoying living in her new place having moved 10 months earlier, beautiful setting and safe. She was an extremely private person really but I think could have done whatever she wanted including running the country. She always described herself as a man in a woman's body ready for any challenge and I suspect the high stress of her earlier high octane life took its toll on her health.
It was a privilege to have known her and I suspect given a few breaks she could have been a fantastic leader albeit terrifying to anyone in opposition. Our parents were the same highly intelligent no compromise people so I'm not surprised she had an effect wherever she went.
I'm trying to arrange a scattering of ashes in Jesmond Dene in Newcastle where my parents were scattered I will let you know of the date...
[1] http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/25/remembering-mark-senior-poster-on-pb-2004-2017/
[2] http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2085562#Comment_2085562
[3] http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2085711#Comment_2085711
[4] http://plato-says.blogspot.com/
You could almost use it to map leave ve remain in 2016 - or as as a geography lesson for finding Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol Brighton and Edinburgh on a map of the UK! Or can you point out the places in the UK where lots of students live.
It is quite a useful map in more way than one!
'Blackhorse Lane Crafts an Exclusive Jean for Turnbull & Asser'
https://tinyurl.com/y27zjr35