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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith looking to succeed Theresa May. I REPEAT THIS IS NOT AN EARLY APRIL FOOLS’ DAY STORY
Iain Duncan Smith eyes second spell as Tory leader as he considers throwing hat into ring to succeed PMhttps://t.co/m3mBiYerB0 pic.twitter.com/kI6FXinrRC
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Any “supporter” can only be more stupid than him. Is that feasible?
Finally, is the Mirror a credible source for Conservative stories?
Also if anyone can find anywhere to lay IDS at anything below about 50-1, then please do let the rest of us know.
Otherwise, agree entirely.
But I figured why not try and contribute for once. With this in mind, a question if I may:
May’s Deal with the Backstop: requires continued regulatory alignment with the EU, possibly indefinitely. The indefinite practical unlikelihood of signing more advantageous free trade deals with the rest of the world, due to continued regulatory alignment on goods. But two-way zero tariffs and frictionless trade between the UK and EU.
UK government’s formal interim plan for no deal: requires the unilateral setting of zero tariffs on most goods and the continued regulatory alignment with the EU. There is the likelihood of being charged tariffs to export to the EU possibly indefinitely and the practical unlikelihood of signing more advantageous free trade deals elsewhere, given unilateral zero tariffs and regulatory alignment with the EU.
Just what am I missing? It looks to me that in either scenario we will need to implement a technical border solution in Ireland and agree some good faith measures, if we are to avoid Steve Baker’s state of slavery.
For most of the last three years, we’ve had Brexiteers running the Brexit Dept (including the illustrious Mr Baker). Given that both May’s Plan A and the Brexiteers Plan B need this solution, what’s been done so far to implement it? Where’s the competitive tender for IT contracts? Where’s the pre-registration scheme for trusted traders? Where’s the official government forecasts on the value of smuggled goods?
Or is the whole game that we never intended to have regulatory divergence in the first place? If so, then why not be honest and say the official policy is to stay in the customs union?
If we could flog five ounces of it in the Far East, we could clear the national debt.
As a country, our politics have sunk to the bottom of the Mindanao Trench, although it has left a huge amount of oily scum on the top.
Would IDS have been worse than May?
F1: bit sleepy but will set about the latter half of the pre-race ramble presently.
Would Corbyn be worse than either?
Also yes.
The logic of the WA and backstop is that the FTA will be so close to CU and single market that it is indistinguishable. That is the track of the next 20 months should it pass. I suppose we would be outside CAP and CFP in name, but in practice little will change.
It only matters that they are rubbish if the alternative isn't even worse.
We then welcome the liberating Euro Army like London greeted King Billy in 1688...
How is that boil lancing going for the PB Tories. Stock up on pocorn!
In my place six jobs that were going to be created will now go to France, meaning six young people who would have had good, not fancy jobs now won't.
https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353
Edited extra bit: also, that graph has 'Doppelganger UK' ahead on the date of the referendum.
I desperately want shot of May but none of the obvious candidates are particularly inspiring. May has packed her Cabinet with mediocrities and non achievers. Boris will no doubt run but, despite the charisma and name recognition, he is seriously flawed on so many levels as to not be credible. I doubt his brother Joe would vote for him.
The only way there can be a leadership contest with any prospect of not gifting power to Corbyn would be if Brexit’s course was at least settled. Fat chance. May has surpassed both Heath and Eden with her incompetence and failure.
We wanted to not be involved in the political bits of the EU - and largely we had already secured opt outs. Leaving would insulate us from future plans and free us from CAP/CFP but surely sanely we would continue to benefit from the best fee trade deal possible. Except of course that Tory loons and their disaster capitalism profiteer backers have persuaded the stupid and gullible out there that free trade is great and the best way to secure free trade is to end free trade.
One of her few friends once told me that Mrs May approached Brexit as if the country had set her a piece of fiendishly difficult homework. The downside of this doggedness has been inflexibility... She didn’t have the largeness of character and the breadth of political skills necessary to handle the vast complexity of the Brexit challenge, but then it is arguable that such a person does not exist.
The Tory party is now preparing to find a new chief for its cannibalistic tribe. It will be convenient for a lot of people, especially those planning to contest for the corroded crown, to cast all the blame for 33 months of unrelenting and still unresolved chaos on the woman who will soon be leaving Number 10. Convenient, but not altogether accurate. The problem with the Conservative party is not Mrs May. The problem with the Conservative party is the Conservative party. The problem with Brexit is not Mrs May. The problem with Brexit is Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/31/theresa-may-dealt-worst-of-hands-played-it-spectacularly-badly
He argues that both major parties are transforming and won't survive in their current form. Unfortunately the interview ends just as it gets particularly interesting.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/29/uk/brexit-luke-mcgee-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html
Because otherwise what's the solution? It's evident to anyone with a brain that a general election is near, with both parties led by a hated cretin and the voters as divided along Brexit lines as on old party lines. So think about what a "we tried to avoid a general election but need one sorry" campaign looks like. Tories still "led" by May, with multiple warring factions issuing their own policy declarations in direct contradiction of whatever manifesto May produces. Labour still led by Jezbollah, Watson leading a majority of MPs in open war against the Kali Ma who in turn are attacking Labour MPs on a massive scale whilst still hoping people will vote for them.
A general election will be the end of our party system as it stands. So why not just accept that, bin the election that nobody wants and glue the sane politicians of any party together now
Who are CER?
I know economics isn't proper science, but it's often useful to give the providence of the forecasts. Have they expertise? Have they used established methods? Have they a track record? Are they independent? Without that information, I may as well quote what a little old lady told me at the post office queue.
I did google it, but it seems to one of many think-tanks, and its website says "The CER is pro-European but not uncritical."
Edit: Obviously error bars aren't allowed when you've no idea.
Betting postF1: pre-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/bahrain-pre-race-2019.html
I've backed Sainz to win his group at 4.33. The others are Magnussen, Raikkonen, and Gasly.
Magnussen and Sainz had practically identical times throughout qualifying, but I think the Haas might benefit relatively more from its Ferrari engine's 'party mode', which will unwind during the race to the advantage of Sainz's Renault-powered McLaren. Raikkonen is in a similar boat to Magnussen. Gasly starts 13th in a theoretically much faster car and could benefit from choice of tyres, but he's still some way further back.
2. Yes; because
3. No deal is simply out of the question.
It should be captioned "Iain Duncan Smith eyes something that he can see - or thinks he can see - crawling across the carpet towards him."
Starmer is more likely to be, like Miliband, one of the very few figures who could hold the party together in a crisis, I would say, holding the more uncompromising ends of both the left and right of the party at bay.
Did google maps predict the 2008 recession?
For interest's sake can they predict what would have happened if Jezza had won the 2017 GE? Sorry to tease, but this is irresistible.
Edit: I'm asking if CER could predict that? I'm sure they can and will if asked, but would you believe it?
While of course this is hands down the most April Fools Day story that is not actually an April Fool let's not forget that prior to his first stint none other than The Economist tipped him for the job.
I think I might have worked out the reasoning behind the impressive graph you quoted from CER.
A publicity stunt. Am I right?
"The CER graph only shows years that have already happened. Prediction is not involved."
Only in a Multiverse. I had a e-novel published last year by Wild Wolf called "Our foolish ways" which concerned a multiverse. It was in the fiction category.
So we need to bypass both front benches and glue together MPs with brains and a heart.
"(principally the US, Germany, and Luxembourg). As these countries did not hold a referendum in 2016, we can compare them to the UK to assess the cost of Brexit. "
The US DID hold a referendum in 2016 - Democrat or Republican?
In other words Bull***t.
OT re e-novels. Did you see the Guardian's article on plagiarism over the weekend?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/mar/28/plagiarism-book-stuffing-clickfarms-the-rotten-side-of-self-publishing
It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.
PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.
There is a wide held view that no deal will not happen, but that contradicts many including the EU
So, in order for no deal to be stopped
TM WDA is approved before 12th April and if not
I assume legislation is required to pass both the HOC and HOL and needs royal assent
Furthermore, is legislation required for the UK to take part in the EU elections
I am very interested in fellow posters comments and knowledge
A Miliband or Starmer leadership following Corbyn might try and retain some of these Left members of the frontbench while bringing in some 1997-2010 era members too, for instance.
It's still immoral, cowardly and stupid, but I must admit having been a sceptic at first politically it was a smart move.
All mps and the public need to understand that on the WDA TM is correct.
Everything needed to leave the EU is in the WDA without which we do not leave
It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.
After you proved me wrong about Leclerc in FP1, it was good to see him win pole, as I’d suggested this was the better bet. Profitable for both of us, so far.
I’m not convinced that Mercedes have much of an engine advantage in qualifying, if any at all, so your race calculations might be sllightly skewed. The silver team certainly sounded more confident about having a chance in the race.
I think Ferrari will still probably win, but Hamilton’s odds look a bit too long to me.
https://twitter.com/icilondres/status/1111669862617808896?s=21
I deserve a lot of credit here for not making an extremely tasteless pun about assault.
It will happen in 12 days if we do not stop it and I am not at all sure without TM WDA we can stop it
Pre-practice I think Hamilton was about evens and Bottas 3.5, and I'm interested to know what the Ferraris, especially Leclerc who I think was significantly longer than Vettel, were.
We only have the one data point for qualifying to race performance gain/loss, so today's race will be useful in that regard. I was pretty tempted by the 2.75 on Hamilton to beat Vettel.
Mr. Walker, bloody hell.
The EU are now expecting No Deal.
And I think you are right Big G that unless we can pass something in the next 12 days, including, if necessary the legislation enabling EU elections, we are going over Niagara sans barrel.
Since Jul 2016 the German Economy has grown by 4% https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth The UK by 4.2% https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth
We may have different views but on this I am sure we are both very worried and if it happens furious with all our political class
Ukraine election: Comedian is front-runner ahead of first round
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47763176
Jasper Carrott for PM? He couldn't be worse than this lot.
Passing legislation into law without the co-operation of the government simply isnt going to happen in the next ten days. And almost certainly isn’t, even with it.
In other words, any significant alternative needs the current government’s active approval, or a new government commanding a majority in the existing parliament, by the end of the week.