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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and more about personal characteristics
Every day it seems we have a new potential candidate for the next Conservative leader. Liz Truss tells us how she will say what she wants and wear what she wants in the Sunday Times, Dominic Raab tells us what he will do about knife crime, Even IDS may be making a comeback (sorry, joke – I am assuming that was the April’s Fool Day story, right?)
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* Theresa May's Suboptimal Deal
We need competence which rules out Boris.
Right now the public would accept someone who could walk and chew gum. Charm is currently superfluous.
Some people just seem to rise inexplicably to positions of influence.
I'm fairly confident if Boris stands he won't make the final two.
Dozens of ministers prepare to back customs union tonight after being given a free vote
Most of the names are failures just jockeying for a future Cabinet place. Those with a genuine chance in my view are Boris, who is a marmite character, Raab, who is being wrongly smeared by May’s office, Hunt, who has done nothing except alienate the medical profession and junior doctors in particular, and Gove, whose credibility is shot having alienated the teachers and stabbed both Cameron and Boris in the back.
Who has got the best chance of uniting the party and beating Corbyn ? None of the above.
On the other side, one possible runner I have spent most of an evening with (sitting next to her at a small dinner party) is Amber Rudd, who is really good fun. Not only that, but she also comes across as genuinely caring in her public statements. If you were choosing on emotional warmth alone, I think she'd be the number one choice of those mentioned. Jeremy Hunt also scores quite well on the empathy stakes.
Still, whilst it is a sensible point, I don't think it's definitive in the current climate. Brexit, sadly, trumps everything.
If we sign up to a 'permanent' customs union that will be an unstable solution once everyone works out what it means. And this whole saga will drag on.
TOPPING said:
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I hope you enjoy yourself Malc, and come back with renewed vim and vigour. Is your booking a top cabin with free refreshments the same as the free glass of champagne that is offered in business or first class air travel*?
*ie not free.
Topping,
Well , as you say not free and exactly like your example. I could try to drink my weight etc but boss will have me on best behaviour with grandson there.
The best political scenario for the Tories is that they get put into opposition by a John Major style temporary unity government, which abandons or significantly delays Brexit. This would open up their leadership contest and offer the best hope of holding most of the party together.
Actually delivering Brexit from its current position and with the likely accompanying real world damage is far more likely to split the party wide open.
At least we'll get to know what parliament REALLY thinks today.
God I hope Private Francois and Andrew Bridgen join him.
The only 2 Ministers who have put themselves forward repeatedly have been Rory Stewart and Tobias Ellwood, neither of them in the Cabinet, but willing to put themselves in the line of fire. Speaks well of them and very badly of Cabinet Ministers who have been silent or back-biting or speaking through others off the record.
Just to correct something that @Sean_F said on the previous thread: the laws I am talking about in relation to Parkfield are the laws which exist re homosexuality being legal, gay marriage being legal, discrimination against gay people being unlawful. The Parkfield protestors are, bluntly, protesting for the right to opt out of those laws. No.
The argument needs to be framed properly. This is not about the rights of parents to teach their children their religion since there is nothing to stop this. This is about whether religion should trump the state. And the answer is no. Just as we would not - or should not - tolerate parents agitating for their children not to be taught about Islam or not to have Muslim teachers or, heaven forfend, not having Muslim boys in their childrens' class because they might groom their girls, we should not tolerate Muslim parents agitating for their children not to be taught about homosexuality or not to have gay teachers or gay children in class.
Opting out of this fight out of fear or because the Minister won't win any kudos or because she's scared of being accused of islamophobia or racism or whatever is pathetic. That is not what leadership is. If you are in politics you have to deal with these difficult problems not run away. The problems will only get worse if we run away from them. Bullies need to be stood up to. There was a time when British politicians understood this in their bones.
If Mordaunt or Damian Hinds don't know what to say, I'll write the bloody speech for them.
And for your information Tory voters only split 61/39 at the start of the Brexit process, when they were polling significantly less than the 40 odd percent of the last GE, and now as the brexiteer vote is unwinding. The only reason Corbyn didn't win is brexiteers returned to the Tories and boosted the ratio to 70/30.
How many party leaders in the Commons ate remainers? How many backed Leave?
Meh.
Or speaking in favour of it? Or of doing anything other than saying it needs to be ruled out at once?
Labour leadership policy is to be in government.
As for every opposition since time immemorial.
And you know the old saying, where Ukraine goes ...
Sadly, as she is a sensible, pro-business, europhile moderate, she won't wash with the nutters who pollute your membership base these days Richard.
You have the whip removed and you cannot stand as a Tory candidate in a general election.
Of the main, hunt is for me strongest, followed by javid
The one thing Labour is getting right is to make sure that Brexit is increasingly seen as a Conservative project. Whatever type of Brexit finally transpires, it will have Tory fingerprints all over it and it is Conservative politicians who will be held to account for it. The only positive outcomes for the Tories are either a Brexit that, against expectations, actually turns out well, or a non-Brexit imposed upon them by the opposition.
However I think only a publicly confirmed Brexiter will be supported.
Edit/ Lamb I believe has signed up to CU/CM2
Most of them will join Farage and the Brexit Party?
As a Conservative, one seems clearly preferably to the other.
Rory The Tory has no Cabinet experience.
Liddington? Can't see it but you never know...
Light in your head and dead on your feet
Well, another crazy day
You'll drink the night away
And forget about everything
Frankly, no-one in the Cabinet particularly impresses. The Tories are split, are messing up the country and need to go away into a darkened corner and grow up before bothering the rest of us.
Education is contentious because the state's mandates and the parents' beliefs may collide. We have laws to protect gay rights and these trump religion. The UK is not a theocracy.
It is like looking for a new CEO, and scouting round the sales, warehouse or admin staff.
I can't see some horrendous bodge involving the CU being very attractive, particularly as our negotiators don't seem to be very good.
You are probably right, though. All solutions are unstable. The longer this uncivil war goes on the less stable any solution will be.
She's the female George Osborne without the safe word.
Sell
David Lidington11.19 £26.00 £264.83
Amber Rudd16.00 £21.60 £324.00
Buy
David Lidington55.00£3.00 £162.00
Amber Rudd66.67£6.00 £394.00
Some (many) unusual aircraft although disappointingly it doesn’t have the nuclear powered bomber.
Udvar-Hazy at Dulles is good but quite traditional in presentation.