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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election
The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn, who gained the seat in 1987 from the Conservatives, was always going to be held in the shadow of Brexit. Chris Hanratty’s estimates shows that the constituency voted LEAVE by 53% to 47% and the council area voted LEAVE by 56% to 44%, but there is more, much more to Newport than how it voted in the referendum, so let’s take a look at the constituency and see if we can garner some clues as to what will happen today.
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I wonder what position the "Did Magna Carta die in vain?" fraternity has on the Abolish the Welsh Assembly party. How very dare a furrin sounding bloke seek to overturn the will of 50.3% of the Welsh people?
And a brilliant piece of writing thanks, Harry. We ought to have more about transporter bridges on PB.
I'm interested if the SDP can make any sort of impression given their overhaul and new celebtity fans, saving deposit would be an astounding result for them
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/downing-street-denies-theresa-may-has-bought-a-house-in-dunmore-east-915390.html
Solid Labour hold I should think...
So many unanswered questions.
Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"
How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?
Did they?
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/04/03/joe-biden-college-campus-sexual-assault-226481
After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.
The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.
I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.
Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.
What on earth stopped Theresa May putting £350m a week extra for the NHS in the 2017 manifesto is beyond me.
I remember putting it back in the box addressed to Mr David Cameron, 10 Downing St. London.
And I didn't put a stamp on it!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/06/some-mps-are-set-to-remind-the-electorate-that-referendums-are-advisory-and-not-binding-on-parliament/
I have had a modest punt on Tories in third place with Shadsy.
I’m a Remainer, but if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, choose to Leave the EU, our elected representatives should respect that, failure to do so will widen the disconnect many of the electorate feel they have with their elected representatives"
Wise words, well said
And to be fair to Liam Fox (why?) I don't think he was ever disgraced as a GP. There might have been some criticism of him, of course, but AFAIK nothing was ever published.
No mention of the M4 relief road/Brynglas tunnels, the biggest flag in Wales at Celtic Manor or Caerleon's claim as the home of Camelot......
As someone who lives within 400m of the constituency I predict a comfortable but unimpressive Labour hold, Plaid beating UKIP to 3rd place and lots of lost deposits ...
The one thing one can say about Hamilton is that the PM hasn't put him in charge of our trade deals. He might know a tad more than a retired GP though, and he possibly will know how to oil the wheels of a deal.
The Guardian has learned that a Ukip supporter was among the flurry of “suspicious” newcomers who tried to join the association in the year before the former attorney general – who has been a standard-bearer for the remain camp in the Brexit debate – lost a confidence vote, leaving him facing deselection.
In a single small town in the constituency, seven people, including a man who had been canvassed as a Ukip voter, tried to join the party in the space of 48 hours, leading to infiltration concerns. One email noted it could not be a “fluke”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/04/leaked-emails-show-infiltration-fears-before-dominic-grieve-tory-confidence-vote?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
8 Commencement or repeal of amending provisions
(1) The Minister must make an order bringing into force section 9, Schedule 10 and Part 1 of Schedule 12 (“the alternative vote provisions”) if—
(a)more votes are cast in the referendum in favour of the answer “Yes” than in favour of the answer “No”, and
(b) the draft of an Order in Council laid before Parliament under subsection (5A) of section 3 of the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (substituted by section 10(6) below) has been submitted to Her Majesty in Council under section 4 of that Act.
It is just about arguable that even that isn't binding, because statutes are repealable, but the point is that the way it is structured automates the almost immediate enactment of the result, whichever way it goes. Obviously not achievable for brexit, because brexit cannot be enacted by the uk parliament.
"My reading of this is that some Remain MPs are genuinely concerned about losing this referendum, any MP who chooses to ignore the will of the people will be punished by the electorate at the next election, any Tory MP who is party to this will face deselection."
He is hardly a Kipper plant, and what he said is quite right.
With respect to the "disgraced" epithet you might want to type disgraced into Google. It has now gone further than this article mentions: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/03/algorithms-are-now-autocompleting-disgraced-former-defence-secretary-liam
Excellent article as always. Have you perchance heard the Comic Relief song "Newport State Of Mind". The article seemed to make reference to some of the lyrics...
25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
I'd say it has a good chance.
Other views exist and are valid
This whole farce has resulted from a collision of law & policy on one hand and political reality on the other. Political promises have been made that are not legally enforceable, nor formulated properly as a policy, and that is to the discredit of all involved.
In them, she describe a world where alien races have come to Earth whilst we were on the brink of nuclear war and offered us the stars. Since then, mankind has moved out from Earth to planets around the Galaxy: the large nations have many worlds, the smaller a few, and the smallest share some. Vast liners travel the ether between worlds, and mankind is flourishing.
Yet there are discontents. Humans - often powerful and influential ones - who rail against the aliens with whom we share control. We once controlled the world, but we are now a small piece of a gigantic Galactic cog. We should be in charge.
So these discontents start a rebellion that destroys worlds and kills billions. It is a pointless rebellion: one where they shake their fists at the very beings who have treated us well.
And it ends with Humanity chastened and still part of the Milieu. Little has changed, for the course was inevitable, and changing it would destroy everything.
And that is now what might happen to Brexit. We in the UK have a history that is littered with glory, and it is easy to sit back and want those glories to return. Britannia ruled the waves, and we ruled the world. But that world has changed: first came America, and then other countries overtook us. We are a small country: proud and brilliant, but small - in a world where size matters.
In such a world, is the EU an inevitability?
So we have a choice: to join up with other small countries (and smaller ones) to form a bloc that has more power together, or to be small and alone. It seems that the former might be inevitable. If so, perhaps the wettest of wet dreams of hardcore Europhiles are correct and, like Humanity after the rebellion, we will eventually become leaders of the group.
If so, then Brexit may be, like the rebellion in the books, a felix culpa - a blessed fall.
Low turnout?
Silly - but arguably the human rebels ended up being right and saving humanity. Discuss.
Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
2nd highest on record
https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1113762835660722176?s=21
rather she hadnt gone there
Your last point is utterly correct: as the arc of the book means that Humanity could not progress to the stars without the rebellion, and especially Marc's part in it.
Then there is Felice. I really wish she was/is the Carbuncle, but apparently that's not what Julian May wanted ...
A neat summary from Anthony Wells about the popularity of a No Deal Brexit.
Given a choice between No Deal and Remain, it's 50/50, (which is consistent with other pollsters) but that doesn't make it the preferred option.
A senior EU official has confirmed that if the UK crashes out of the bloc in nine days time controls will have to be in place on “day one” on milk and other animal products coming from Northern Ireland.
They say it will “be difficult” to say how the giant co-operatives that currently exist on the south of the border could continue to do daily milk collections picking up both milk from farms on both sides of the frontier.
They will also see a 19p EU tariff slapped on the payment they get per litre of milk almost doubling the current 26p per litre cost, warned bosses at Dairy UK.
This is the kind of thing which would make a No Deal crash-out politically and socially catastrophic. It's not our imports that are the big problem (except for the knock-on effect of disruption in trucks going back to the EU), it's our exports, especially of agricultural products and seafood. The latter industry will collapse rapidly if it can't land produce directly and without hold-ups in EU ports.
I'd like to hope they've expunged all records of him having been there.
Quite apart from its irrelevance, why should any future Government or Prime Minister or Commons be bound by a decision of April 2019 as to going for a CU, or a Common Market 2.0 or a Canada ++ or a Norway Lite or an Andorran Mild or an "I prefer a pint of mild to Bacardi & Coke". There's an argument for putting three or four options to the British people in a referendum but again none of that matters while the WA remains unresolved.
We're back to the WA - why should those who opposed it before support it now because it's wrapped in a CU ribbon? Answer, they won't.
Down it goes for the final time and May goes to the EU summit with the last two options being to leave without a WA on 12/4 or extend ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
Despite previous experience most people take a promise from a PM at face value
For my part, I voted as I did on the understanding that it was only advisory.
And even if they do somehow manage to sort out something for Ireland (under what powers, though?), that doesn't alter the general point. There are lots and lots of these type of problem. Even if it legally could do so, is the EU going to go to enormous trouble for the sake of (Leave-voting!) Aberdeen fishermen, for example?
Saying 'I simple don't believe it' is not good enough. Those problems are not fictional, they are the direct effect of EU treaty law which any expert can tell you about.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47817830