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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are not what you would call transactional politicians. May was famously described by Ken Clarke as a “bloody difficult woman” whose time at both the Home Office and No 10 has been marked by single-minded stubbornness. Corbyn, by contrast, was for decades an activist-politician on the fringes of Labour, and has maintained many of the habits and practices afforded the awkward squad MP despite or even because of his new status as Leader of the Opposition: he regards his twin elections as party leader as an endorsement of those policies and methods. Little surprise then that the talks aimed at finding a compromise way forward to break the Brexit deadlock have ended in failure.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,891
    Boles
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,145
    Haven't business motions always been amendable?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 326
    I had always thought the executive had too much control over the business of Parliament. But all this constitutional tinkering over the last 20 years does mean we have to codify what we’ve got IMHO as the conventions that propped the edifice up are becoming less relevant or ignored completely. I’m not even saying there should be anything radical done but simply agreeing what we have and writing it down in one place would solve some of this frankly worrying argument about what is constitutional and what isn’t.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    Fourth
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827
    Personally the one absolute constant I've taken from the last 2 & 1/2 years is that when someone says x* has been killed because of y, they will be proved wrong in short order. Of course something has to happen at some point with (hopefully metaphorical) deaths along the way, but I'm not sure if we've reached that point.

    *x = Brexit, soft Brexit, hard Brexit, People's Vote, CU, FoM, May, May's deal, Corbyn, Tory Party, Labour party, Farage, UKIP, the Union, Scottish Indy etc. SLab could be the exception that proves the rule, mind, though they were pretty corpse like in the first place.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    Off-topic:

    "Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588

    I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.

    The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.

    We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.

    (*) With mat.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,145
    The current Con/DUP government has a majority of 3.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    edited April 6
    There's an interesting 'what if' that could appear. What if we Remain via a revocation or, as is planned, by boring us all and ending up with an it's all too difficult conclusion?

    Every tiny setback afterwards will be blamed on EU membership. It will be an easy 'get out of jail free' card for whatever government is in power. Brexit has suffered a little even before it's happened, so think of the opportunities available if we stay.

    Remainers will say "It's the Leavers fault for making us a pariah state" but they'll struggle when the whole EU itself goes into a recession, as it's bound to do sometime. Every outrage committed by any European nationality will receive a knowing frown. It may not be logical, but politics isn't logical.

    A real hostage to fortune.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,521
    I feel like we've already had peak Right Wing Ruth. The tories are about to endure electoral scaphism for a very long time and she will segue into Portillo/Balls national treasure status. Next on BBC1: Quad Biking in the Panjshir Valley with Ruth Davidson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    Yes, Brexit is melting away, but Cooper/Letwin is overstated in the lead.

    If May accepts the extension proposed in response to her request by the EU, Cooper/Letwin falls, I think, as it's written as a bill for a one-off circumstance that will already have transpired? For sure, it propelled May into action quickly, in the space given to her by the Tory Lords' filibuster, but she was going to have to ask for an extension anyway, given that government has clearly come out against a no deal exit. And this latter appears to have followed briefings on its practical and political consequences - particularly of direct rule in NI - and these briefings would have been received regardless of the views of backbench MPs.

    I don't sense the Tories have yet reconciled themselves to the EU elections - Zadahi was on the radio just now describing even holding the elections as a suicide note for the Tory party (but had no other resolution to propose other than AV between the indicative options).

    Cooper/Letwin has set an interesting precedent and sped things along a little (if sped is ever the right word for where we are), that's all. No deal was never something the government could ever have worked for - hence none of the Leaver Cabinet members have resigned over it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,507
    edited April 6
    Overall, the view I'm getting from others (and it may be my echo chamber) is that Labour are pro-Remain, the Tories are pro-Leave, May is trying to keep her party intact, and Jezza is just playing silly buggers.

    Blame will be attached accordingly
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,761
    edited April 6
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, Brexit is melting away, but Cooper/Letwin is overstated in the lead.

    If May accepts the extension proposed in response to her request by the EU, Cooper/Letwin falls, I think, as it's written as a bill for a one-off circumstance that will already have transpired? For sure, it propelled May into action quickly, in the space given to her by the Tory Lords' filibuster, but she was going to have to ask for an extension anyway, given that government has clearly come out against a no deal exit. And this latter appears to have followed briefings on its practical and political consequences - particularly of direct rule in NI - and these briefings would have been received regardless of the views of backbench MPs.

    I don't sense the Tories have yet reconciled themselves to the EU elections - Zadahi was on the radio just now describing even holding the elections as a suicide note for the Tory party (but had no other resolution to propose other than AV between the indicative options).

    Cooper/Letwin has set an interesting precedent and sped things along a little (if sped is ever the right word for where we are), that's all. No deal was never something the government could ever have worked for - hence none of the Leaver Cabinet members have resigned over it.

    I agree the Cooper Letwin Bill has been overstated in importance . May was always going to ask for an extension . There is one thing to add though . A group of cross bench peers have put down an amendment to the bill, if that’s carried in the HOL it comes back to MPs. In a nutshell if the EU refuse an extension May has to ask MPs if they agree to no deal , if they say no then the government has to revoke Article 50 .

    Whether this has any chance of getting through the Commons I’m doubtful but it might flush out how many at this stage are willing to go for that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068
    CD13 said:

    Overall, the view I'm getting from others (and it may be my echo chamber) is that Labour are pro-Remain, the Tories are pro-Leave, May is trying to keep her party intact, and Jezza is just playing silly buggers.

    Blame will be attached accordingly

    It is different in my echo chamber.

    People are sick of this incompetent farce by the Tories, no one blames Labour for a Tory/UKIP fiasco. They just want it over, and no longer care how.

    My killer bit of anecdata: My secretary (Sixty something, horsey set, Tory voting, ex police) has signed the Revoke petition.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,128
    LBC reporting that Philip Hammond said there are no red lines in the talks with Labour.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559
    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    Overall, the view I'm getting from others (and it may be my echo chamber) is that Labour are pro-Remain, the Tories are pro-Leave, May is trying to keep her party intact, and Jezza is just playing silly buggers.

    Blame will be attached accordingly

    It is different in my echo chamber.

    People are sick of this incompetent farce by the Tories, no one blames Labour for a Tory/UKIP fiasco. They just want it over, and no longer care how.

    My killer bit of anecdata: My secretary (Sixty something, horsey set, Tory voting, ex police) has signed the Revoke petition.
    Its easy to write that, not sure its true. Most think a plague on all their houses. Corbyn is just as intransigent.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,056
    Off topic, Johnny Mercer might want to rethink this particular outside interest - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6892659/High-flying-Tory-MP-dragged-scandal-finance-firm.html. (See also https://barry-walsh.co.uk/news/).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    CD13 said:

    There's an interesting 'what if' that could appear. What if we Remain via a revocation or, as is planned, by boring us all and ending up with an it's all too difficult conclusion?

    Every tiny setback afterwards will be blamed on EU membership. It will be an easy 'get out of jail free' card for whatever government is in power. Brexit has suffered a little even before it's happened, so think of the opportunities available if we stay.

    Remainers will say "It's the Leavers fault for making us a pariah state" but they'll struggle when the whole EU itself goes into a recession, as it's bound to do sometime. Every outrage committed by any European nationality will receive a knowing frown. It may not be logical, but politics isn't logical.

    A real hostage to fortune.

    Regardless of what either side may wish it won't be "over" no matter what happens.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,191
    If the public haven't lost faith with the two major parties after their crooked behaviour in this absolute shambles, they never will

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    Is that the 18:20 race?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,332
    Wait till questions are asked about Britain's position as a permanent member of the Security council as discussed on radio this morning. That'll put the cat among the Tory pigeons!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    Overall, the view I'm getting from others (and it may be my echo chamber) is that Labour are pro-Remain, the Tories are pro-Leave, May is trying to keep her party intact, and Jezza is just playing silly buggers.

    Blame will be attached accordingly

    It is different in my echo chamber.

    People are sick of this incompetent farce by the Tories, no one blames Labour for a Tory/UKIP fiasco. They just want it over, and no longer care how.

    My killer bit of anecdata: My secretary (Sixty something, horsey set, Tory voting, ex police) has signed the Revoke petition.
    Its easy to write that, not sure its true. Most think a plague on all their houses. Corbyn is just as intransigent.
    Sure, we all know that, but when governments screw up it is not the opposition that gets the blame.

    May's sole tactic has been to bludgeon her deal through by running down the clock, but the EU27 are only going to let No Deal happen by a conscious UK choice. Her tactic has repeatedly failed, yet she sticks to it.

    May cannot command control of her own cabinet. This is a disintegrating government. Labour cannot be blamed for that, merely for exploiting the situation.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559
    OT Grand National punters should consider Bet365's offer of half your stake back on e/w losers up to £125. Unusually, this is for existing account holders only, not new ones.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,157

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    Last race at 18.20! Pity the poor amateur that has been wasting all week.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    Is that the 18:20 race?
    Yes, the 6.20 at Aintree, following the Grand National.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    Interesting article David which I largely agree with.

    However, the one explosive issue you have not included is if France, Spain and Belgium carry out their threat to veto any extension. In many ways I am on their side, if I am being fair, as there are no circumstances those countries, and others, would want to allow UK MEPs in their new parliament, especially after the ill judged threats to it by Farage and JRM

    If this comes about next wednesday the HOC has just 48 hours to either pass TM deal or revoke. There is no time for a GE or referendum.

    On balance I think 'high noon' arrives on thursday 11th April but we will see and we do not have long to wait
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,157

    CD13 said:

    There's an interesting 'what if' that could appear. What if we Remain via a revocation or, as is planned, by boring us all and ending up with an it's all too difficult conclusion?

    Every tiny setback afterwards will be blamed on EU membership. It will be an easy 'get out of jail free' card for whatever government is in power. Brexit has suffered a little even before it's happened, so think of the opportunities available if we stay.

    Remainers will say "It's the Leavers fault for making us a pariah state" but they'll struggle when the whole EU itself goes into a recession, as it's bound to do sometime. Every outrage committed by any European nationality will receive a knowing frown. It may not be logical, but politics isn't logical.

    A real hostage to fortune.

    Regardless of what either side may wish it won't be "over" no matter what happens.
    We can't even agree on the end of the beginning let alone it being over!!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,736
    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    May has been terrible in everything she has touched since calling her election in 2017. She needs removing from office today.

    That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.

    A plague on all of them in parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    FPT @malcolmg

    Thanks for the tips.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827
    edited April 6
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel like we've already had peak Right Wing Ruth. The tories are about to endure electoral scaphism for a very long time and she will segue into Portillo/Balls national treasure status. Next on BBC1: Quad Biking in the Panjshir Valley with Ruth Davidson.

    'Target Practice With Ruth where each week the lovable lesbian is joined by a special guest to take potshots at effigies of different enemies of the UK. This week she's joined by Arlene Foster, laughter & high jinks ensue!'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    Is that the 18:20 race?
    Yes, the 6.20 at Aintree, following the Grand National.
    Thanks. I've had a nibble.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    Overall, the view I'm getting from others (and it may be my echo chamber) is that Labour are pro-Remain, the Tories are pro-Leave, May is trying to keep her party intact, and Jezza is just playing silly buggers.

    Blame will be attached accordingly

    It is different in my echo chamber.

    People are sick of this incompetent farce by the Tories, no one blames Labour for a Tory/UKIP fiasco. They just want it over, and no longer care how.

    My killer bit of anecdata: My secretary (Sixty something, horsey set, Tory voting, ex police) has signed the Revoke petition.
    Its easy to write that, not sure its true. Most think a plague on all their houses. Corbyn is just as intransigent.
    Sure, we all know that, but when governments screw up it is not the opposition that gets the blame.

    May's sole tactic has been to bludgeon her deal through by running down the clock, but the EU27 are only going to let No Deal happen by a conscious UK choice. Her tactic has repeatedly failed, yet she sticks to it.

    May cannot command control of her own cabinet. This is a disintegrating government. Labour cannot be blamed for that, merely for exploiting the situation.

    Very partisan post and there is no indication labour are being absolved of blame. Both parties are plummeting in the polls, TM is ahead of Corbyn, and the Newport by election demonstrated a swing to the conservatives in a rock sold labour seat

    It is time supporters of both the main parties accepted that between them they have failed the country and each deserves to reap the reward at the ballot box at the next GE
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827
    saddo said:

    Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    Does that mean that they're traitors?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,157
    saddo said:

    May has been terrible in everything she has touched since calling her election in 2017. She needs removing from office today.

    That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.

    A plague on all of them in parliament.

    It is a more egregious sin to want to plunge your country into at the very least economic chaos.

    Special place in hell and all that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,191

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    This week May gave Corbyn a level of legitimacy he could only have dreamed of a year or two ago. How can the Tories warn that his Premiership would be a disaster when she invited him in to make the biggest decision in recent history?

    Dominic Grieve is the man to blame for the whole mess, if it's true it were he who secured MPs having the final say on the deal. Had May's deal needed no ratification from the House, this would have all been over long ago
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366

    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?

    I am not an expert in Parliamentary procedure but without action we most certainly would no deal.

    And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183
    On topic, it’s all very volatile. Whatever we end up with is going to be chosen chaotically and with no central guiding spirit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366

    On topic, it’s all very volatile. Whatever we end up with is going to be chosen chaotically and with no central guiding spirit.

    Indeed and a very alarming thought
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    The Will of the People was to deny Strong and Stable her platform for government in an election that she called on her main policy of Brexit.

    May then forshadowed Brexit herself, by constantly promising to go, yet never actually doing it.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,761
    saddo said:

    May has been terrible in everything she has touched since calling her election in 2017. She needs removing from office today.

    That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.

    A plague on all of them in parliament.

    Utter nonsense . The UK will not pay anymore money , it’s already settled its accounts for the current committments till 2021. If it extends its membership that’s taken account of , its the same money that would have been paid under the transition . The UK would only pay more if it extended the transition past December 2020.

    This treachery rhetoric is both pathetic and dangerous .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,456
    TOPPING said:

    saddo said:

    May has been terrible in everything she has touched since calling her election in 2017. She needs removing from office today.

    That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.

    A plague on all of them in parliament.

    It is a more egregious sin to want to plunge your country into at the very least economic chaos.

    Special place in hell and all that.
    once again where is this economic chaos ? Youve been promising it for nearly 3 years and still we plod on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
    Thats the one. Is the nag a good 'un?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    Overall, the view I'm getting from others (and it may be my echo chamber) is that Labour are pro-Remain, the Tories are pro-Leave, May is trying to keep her party intact, and Jezza is just playing silly buggers.

    Blame will be attached accordingly

    It is different in my echo chamber.

    People are sick of this incompetent farce by the Tories, no one blames Labour for a Tory/UKIP fiasco. They just want it over, and no longer care how.

    My killer bit of anecdata: My secretary (Sixty something, horsey set, Tory voting, ex police) has signed the Revoke petition.
    Its easy to write that, not sure its true. Most think a plague on all their houses. Corbyn is just as intransigent.
    Sure, we all know that, but when governments screw up it is not the opposition that gets the blame.

    May's sole tactic has been to bludgeon her deal through by running down the clock, but the EU27 are only going to let No Deal happen by a conscious UK choice. Her tactic has repeatedly failed, yet she sticks to it.

    May cannot command control of her own cabinet. This is a disintegrating government. Labour cannot be blamed for that, merely for exploiting the situation.

    Very partisan post and there is no indication labour are being absolved of blame. Both parties are plummeting in the polls, TM is ahead of Corbyn, and the Newport by election demonstrated a swing to the conservatives in a rock sold labour seat

    It is time supporters of both the main parties accepted that between them they have failed the country and each deserves to reap the reward at the ballot box at the next GE
    It's unusual for the public to be simultaneously hostile to both government and Opposition - 2003 -05 was the last time. Unlike then, voters who are unhappy with the big two are split many ways.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel like we've already had peak Right Wing Ruth. The tories are about to endure electoral scaphism for a very long time and she will segue into Portillo/Balls national treasure status. Next on BBC1: Quad Biking in the Panjshir Valley with Ruth Davidson.

    Spot on, celebrity jungle etc
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 326
    edited April 6
    saddo said:

    May has been terrible in everything she has touched since calling her election in 2017. She needs removing from office today.

    That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.

    A plague on all of them in parliament.

    Like murder, treachery has a reasonably precise, legal, definition and it is not a nice one. I do hope that one of the people who is blithely labelled as a traitor has the money, inclination and time to sue in the same way that someone equally blithely accused of murder would do, in order to send a message about this sort of damaging rhetoric.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183
    Foxy said:

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
    Thats the one. Is the nag a good 'un?
    I’ve had a flutter - thanks @DecrepitJohnL
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,456
    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    edited April 6

    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...

    I hope not Nick. I hope the boil is lanced by the EU on wednesday telling us to accept the WDA or revoke

    And I have no problem with either, just no deal which would be a total failure of our politics
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,425
    If we end up with revoke I would expect TM will resign , probably Boris to succeed and go to the country promising to reinvoke A50 and ensure we leave deal or no deal . I would think he will get majority on a tide of populism and get the numbers in parliament to force through no deal brexit with two years to prepare
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 347

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
    Anything to declare there Alaister?

  • I'm almost hoping for a last minute revocation next week. It's clear Brexit ain't happening anytime soon and a messy, shambolic revocation will lead us nicely into the political chaos that our mainstream politicians so richly deserve. There will be a lot of curtailed political ambitions in the fallout. All we need then is crumbling Westminster to fall into the Thames and then we can build a proper parliament just down the road from me.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559

    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...

    Although it is true that Theresa May cannot be no-confidenced by her own party till December, a Prime Minister with one eye on her legacy would probably not want to be deposed so might announce her retirement during the summer, though she will of course be aware that when David Cameron resigned, expecting to be PM up to conference, the party rushed through its election so he was out in just three weeks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778
    O/T I was wrong about Fenland. In fact, 15 Conservatives are returned unopposed, and three more mathematically guaranteed, out of 39. That's up from 6 in 2015, although better than 22 in 2007.

    Overall, 208 Conservatives have been returned unopposed, or are guaranteed election. Hundreds more don't have Labour or Lib Dem opponents. One ward in Lichfield has not been contested in 20 years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    Is that the 18:20 race?
    Yes, the 6.20 at Aintree, following the Grand National.
    Thanks. I've had a nibble.
    Congratulations, delighted to hear it.

    But have you had a bet?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,134
    edited April 6

    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...

    An election is only going to become more difficult as time goes on. The one coherent message I get from the public as you pound the streets is they absolutely do not want another year of this - they see both Tory and Labour MPs as hugely self-indulgent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068

    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?

    I am not an expert in Parliamentary procedure but without action we most certainly would no deal.

    And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
    I have always said that Brexit would go with a whimper rather than a bang. Its hard to get too excited on a lovely spring day when there is a big horse race and some interesting football. Leicester could leapfrog to 7th place if we win away at poor old Huddersfield. I expect it will be a while before we see them again in the PL.

    I am in the Smoke on Friday for a meeting, was planning to pop to Parliament Square to see the circus in the evening. I expect an extension though. Tusk will have his way and 29/3/20 will be the new Brexit day.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    kjohnw said:

    If we end up with revoke I would expect TM will resign , probably Boris to succeed and go to the country promising to reinvoke A50 and ensure we leave deal or no deal . I would think he will get majority on a tide of populism and get the numbers in parliament to force through no deal brexit with two years to prepare

    A couple of problems with that. While in revoking TM would no doubt open a leadership election, Boris is no means certain to succeed. Furthemore any GE in this climate is likely to result in a hung parliament just as paralysed as today.

    Of course your comments are a wish list rather than a likely end result.

    The country is utterly sick to death of Brexit and is unlikely to want to re-visit it in a generation, if ever
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,200

    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...

    Although it is true that Theresa May cannot be no-confidenced by her own party till December, a Prime Minister with one eye on her legacy would probably not want to be deposed so might announce her retirement during the summer, though she will of course be aware that when David Cameron resigned, expecting to be PM up to conference, the party rushed through its election so he was out in just three weeks.
    She could still stand and win. The basic dynamic that keeps her in place is still there:
    1) She can only be replaced by MPs
    2) Her successor would be chosen by party members
    3) The party members are nuts
    4) The MPs know this
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,425

    kjohnw said:

    If we end up with revoke I would expect TM will resign , probably Boris to succeed and go to the country promising to reinvoke A50 and ensure we leave deal or no deal . I would think he will get majority on a tide of populism and get the numbers in parliament to force through no deal brexit with two years to prepare

    A couple of problems with that. While in revoking TM would no doubt open a leadership election, Boris is no means certain to succeed. Furthemore any GE in this climate is likely to result in a hung parliament just as paralysed as today.

    Of course your comments are a wish list rather than a likely end result.

    The country is utterly sick to death of Brexit and is unlikely to want to re-visit it in a generation, if ever
    Where I live everyone just wants the vote enacted , they have no truck for those who want to betray the vote, I think you mistake being sick of brexit with being sick of politicians standing in the way of brexit
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,034
    CD13 said:

    There's an interesting 'what if' that could appear. What if we Remain via a revocation or, as is planned, by boring us all and ending up with an it's all too difficult conclusion?

    Every tiny setback afterwards will be blamed on EU membership. It will be an easy 'get out of jail free' card for whatever government is in power. Brexit has suffered a little even before it's happened, so think of the opportunities available if we stay.

    Remainers will say "It's the Leavers fault for making us a pariah state" but they'll struggle when the whole EU itself goes into a recession, as it's bound to do sometime. Every outrage committed by any European nationality will receive a knowing frown. It may not be logical, but politics isn't logical.

    A real hostage to fortune.

    Good point, but if we do leave you'll have the same problem in reverse.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 320
    kjohnw said:

    If we end up with revoke I would expect TM will resign , probably Boris to succeed and go to the country promising to reinvoke A50 and ensure we leave deal or no deal . I would think he will get majority on a tide of populism and get the numbers in parliament to force through no deal brexit with two years to prepare

    Do you really think people will vote to go through all of this again? And ahead of NHS, education, quality of life issues? My guess is you are much more likely to get Corbyn as PM in that scenario.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559

    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...

    Although it is true that Theresa May cannot be no-confidenced by her own party till December, a Prime Minister with one eye on her legacy would probably not want to be deposed so might announce her retirement during the summer, though she will of course be aware that when David Cameron resigned, expecting to be PM up to conference, the party rushed through its election so he was out in just three weeks.
    She could still stand and win. The basic dynamic that keeps her in place is still there:
    1) She can only be replaced by MPs
    2) Her successor would be chosen by party members
    3) The party members are nuts
    4) The MPs know this
    That is true, and ironically her position might be strengthened if backbenchers of either stripe just want a rest from Brexit, as this would weigh against headbangers who want to reopen whatever deal is in place by then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,736
    Mr. F, it's also unusual for both Government and Opposition to be incredibly bad.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    Fascinating analysis - thanks, David. I think the scenario that he outlines is perfectly possible, but recent weeks have shown how expectations can change for day to day, let alone over a year.

    I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.

    So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...

    Although it is true that Theresa May cannot be no-confidenced by her own party till December, a Prime Minister with one eye on her legacy would probably not want to be deposed so might announce her retirement during the summer, though she will of course be aware that when David Cameron resigned, expecting to be PM up to conference, the party rushed through its election so he was out in just three weeks.
    She could still stand and win. The basic dynamic that keeps her in place is still there:
    1) She can only be replaced by MPs
    2) Her successor would be chosen by party members
    3) The party members are nuts
    4) The MPs know this
    As against that, the MP's are nuts, also.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    Foxy said:

    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?

    I am not an expert in Parliamentary procedure but without action we most certainly would no deal.

    And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
    I have always said that Brexit would go with a whimper rather than a bang. Its hard to get too excited on a lovely spring day when there is a big horse race and some interesting football. Leicester could leapfrog to 7th place if we win away at poor old Huddersfield. I expect it will be a while before we see them again in the PL.

    I am in the Smoke on Friday for a meeting, was planning to pop to Parliament Square to see the circus in the evening. I expect an extension though. Tusk will have his way and 29/3/20 will be the new Brexit day.

    I may not be popular but my family oppose the grand national on the grounds of the number of horses killed, often in agony, all for excitement. It is barbaric.

    I hope you enjoy your football and let us hope by friday something tangeable will have happened with brexit
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559
    Sean_F said:

    O/T I was wrong about Fenland. In fact, 15 Conservatives are returned unopposed, and three more mathematically guaranteed, out of 39. That's up from 6 in 2015, although better than 22 in 2007.

    Overall, 208 Conservatives have been returned unopposed, or are guaranteed election. Hundreds more don't have Labour or Lib Dem opponents. One ward in Lichfield has not been contested in 20 years.

    What do the locals look like the other way round? Years ago pb spent some time worrying about the rise of the BNP in Barking but it turned out they were the only opposition to Labour in many wards. Surely there must be many unopposed Labour candidates this year as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    Mr. F, it's also unusual for both Government and Opposition to be incredibly bad.

    Yes. Although many Conservatives are getting a hostile reception reception when canvassing, I don't expect the local election results to be dreadful, unlike 1995, because the Opposition are viewed as badly.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,200
    edited April 6
    Sean_F said:

    As against that, the MP's are nuts, also.

    It's pretty much the perfect proportion for TMay: Just enough of them are nuts to make the sane ones worry that they'd put a crazy person in the top two that got sent to the members.

    (I think the publicly visible votes of Tory MPs are somewhat nutser than their votes in a secret ballot, as they don't want to upset the members.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    If we end up with revoke I would expect TM will resign , probably Boris to succeed and go to the country promising to reinvoke A50 and ensure we leave deal or no deal . I would think he will get majority on a tide of populism and get the numbers in parliament to force through no deal brexit with two years to prepare

    A couple of problems with that. While in revoking TM would no doubt open a leadership election, Boris is no means certain to succeed. Furthemore any GE in this climate is likely to result in a hung parliament just as paralysed as today.

    Of course your comments are a wish list rather than a likely end result.

    The country is utterly sick to death of Brexit and is unlikely to want to re-visit it in a generation, if ever
    Where I live everyone just wants the vote enacted , they have no truck for those who want to betray the vote, I think you mistake being sick of brexit with being sick of politicians standing in the way of brexit
    You may well be in a strong leave area but large parts of the country want to remain
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 377
    saddo said:

    May has been terrible in everything she has touched since calling her election in 2017. She needs removing from office today.

    That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?

    If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.

    A plague on all of them in parliament.

    I don't like this talk of treachery. MPs on all sides are doing what they consider to be in the best interests of the country, according to their own view of the world. If and when this is ever settled we will all have to come together and live with the result, or at least contest it within the bounds of civilised democratic debate.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,521
    I see Zehut have gone from nowhere to 6% in the polls for Israel's election on Tuesday largely because of their platform of legalising marijuana. Take note, ChUK/TIG. There is your electoral power up.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/final-poll-before-israeli-election-shows-right-wing-bloc-with-solid-lead-1.7088735
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    It does make me laugh when pro-Remain posters paste a link to a Guardian article about Brexit as an objective source.

    It's like me linking to the Express.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    Foxy said:

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    The Will of the People was to deny Strong and Stable her platform for government in an election that she called on her main policy of Brexit.

    May then forshadowed Brexit herself, by constantly promising to go, yet never actually doing it.

    I wouldn't put it like that. I'd say the election replicated the divisions of the referendum.

    One of her big mistakes was to assume the country would rally behind given that decision had already been made.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I was wrong about Fenland. In fact, 15 Conservatives are returned unopposed, and three more mathematically guaranteed, out of 39. That's up from 6 in 2015, although better than 22 in 2007.

    Overall, 208 Conservatives have been returned unopposed, or are guaranteed election. Hundreds more don't have Labour or Lib Dem opponents. One ward in Lichfield has not been contested in 20 years.

    What do the locals look like the other way round? Years ago pb spent some time worrying about the rise of the BNP in Barking but it turned out they were the only opposition to Labour in many wards. Surely there must be many unopposed Labour candidates this year as well.
    Only 12, unopposed or guaranteed, as far as I can see. Labour's membership increase has not translated into running more candidates in weak areas (another contrast with 1995, where Labour ran, and won, in the most unlikely places).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,034

    It does make me laugh when pro-Remain posters paste a link to a Guardian article about Brexit as an objective source.

    It's like me linking to the Express.
    But are the Guardian and the Express comparable apart from their political position?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 326

    Foxy said:

    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?

    I am not an expert in Parliamentary procedure but without action we most certainly would no deal.

    And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
    I have always said that Brexit would go with a whimper rather than a bang. Its hard to get too excited on a lovely spring day when there is a big horse race and some interesting football. Leicester could leapfrog to 7th place if we win away at poor old Huddersfield. I expect it will be a while before we see them again in the PL.

    I am in the Smoke on Friday for a meeting, was planning to pop to Parliament Square to see the circus in the evening. I expect an extension though. Tusk will have his way and 29/3/20 will be the new Brexit day.

    I may not be popular but my family oppose the grand national on the grounds of the number of horses killed, often in agony, all for excitement. It is barbaric.

    I hope you enjoy your football and let us hope by friday something tangeable will have happened with brexit
    I have very conflicted feelings about the Grand National. It is certainly an animal welfare horror show but it’s also one of those cultural knots that tie the country together, even just the office sweepstakes that so many employers have, that we have fewer and fewer of. If we still had a Morcambe & Wise equivalent that everyone came in and talked about on Monday, that kind of thing that got everyone out of their bubbles, its loss would be less keenly felt. But I can’t defend it on any other grounds.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,432
    It is blindingly obvious that the only way May could ever have got Labour to support any Brexit proposal she put before parliament is if Labour could demonstrate that they had battled for and achieved concessions from the Tories.

    For 6 months May has failed to engage in that process and now, at the 11th hour, she hints at compromise but it turns out to be a sham.

    She deserves the humiliation of having to Revoke, resign and go down in history as the worst PM of our lifetimes. If this leads to a Brucie Bonus of the splintering of the Tory Party then at least she will have a Legacy.

    Elsewhere, it is a lovely spring morning , the lambs are frolicking in the fields and the coffee tastes good.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,456
    Norm said:



    An election is only going to become more difficult as time goes on. The one coherent message I get from the public as you pound the streets is they absolutely do not want another year of this - they see both Tory and Labour MPs as hugely self-indulgent.

    Yes, that's my impression too (not often we agree!). That said, people are still riveted by Brexit to an unhealthy degree and local issues are overshadowed. The standard doorstep conversation is:

    Voter: "I'm fed up with all the parties, I won't vote!"
    Me: "Yes, it's a mess, isn't it? But won't you consider a vote for me for the local council? It's not our fault!"
    Voter: "I suppose you're right. So what is your position on Brexit?"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    edited April 6

    It does make me laugh when pro-Remain posters paste a link to a Guardian article about Brexit as an objective source.

    It's like me linking to the Express.
    I want to remain now but I find the self pitying obsession with foreign reporting on Brexit to be wearying and unconvincing, not least since it usually comes from a place assuming most of the country shares in delusions of hard right perceptions of our place in the world and the horror of that not being true.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    isam said:

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    This week May gave Corbyn a level of legitimacy he could only have dreamed of a year or two ago. How can the Tories warn that his Premiership would be a disaster when she invited him in to make the biggest decision in recent history?

    Dominic Grieve is the man to blame for the whole mess, if it's true it were he who secured MPs having the final say on the deal. Had May's deal needed no ratification from the House, this would have all been over long ago
    The Tories have refused to vote for Brexit, preferring to hold out for a perfect dream that doesn't exist instead. Even without Grieve the WA would still have needed primary legislation to become law.

    Hung Parliaments are exhausting and make you subject to the whims of MPs egos (the new bastards, the old bastards, the DUP and anyone else who fancies a go) but the fact we're in that situation is due to May.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426

    Foxy said:

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
    Thats the one. Is the nag a good 'un?
    I’ve had a flutter - thanks @DecrepitJohnL
    I hope everyone is using their Bet365 account to take the long term money giveaway offer today.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,034

    Foxy said:

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    The Will of the People was to deny Strong and Stable her platform for government in an election that she called on her main policy of Brexit.

    May then forshadowed Brexit herself, by constantly promising to go, yet never actually doing it.

    I wouldn't put it like that. I'd say the election replicated the divisions of the referendum.

    One of her big mistakes was to assume the country would rally behind given that decision had already been made.
    That's a good point, and I was surprised that there wasn't an immediate shift in opinion behind Brexit after the referendum. So I would have made the same mistake. I wonder if this is such a visceral issue that it will take a generation for a consensus to emerge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    Mr Herdson is right about May's deal. It's been called dead before but there truly is no reason for it to pass with a long extension. She's desperate for it to pass but once were into long extension very few others are.

    That said I am very depressed that we face do many more months of uncertainty and a GE to boot probably. If we at least resolved something first rather than merely extend it would fine to face a GE but it's such a bloody mess.

    Have a good day everyone. I think I'll head outside and try to forget Brexit ever existed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
    Thats the one. Is the nag a good 'un?
    I’ve had a flutter - thanks @DecrepitJohnL
    I hope everyone is using their Bet365 account to take the long term money giveaway offer today.
    I seem to be locked out of mine, have gone with PP who are paying 6 places on e/w.

    I quite fancy Rameses de Teillee and Step Back for e/w. Any one taking horseracing bets from me is a fool though!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    Foxy said:

    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?

    I am not an expert in Parliamentary procedure but without action we most certainly would no deal.

    And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
    I have always said that Brexit would go with a whimper rather than a bang. Its hard to get too excited on a lovely spring day when there is a big horse race and some interesting football. Leicester could leapfrog to 7th place if we win away at poor old Huddersfield. I expect it will be a while before we see them again in the PL.

    I am in the Smoke on Friday for a meeting, was planning to pop to Parliament Square to see the circus in the evening. I expect an extension though. Tusk will have his way and 29/3/20 will be the new Brexit day.

    I may not be popular but my family oppose the grand national on the grounds of the number of horses killed, often in agony, all for excitement. It is barbaric.

    I hope you enjoy your football and let us hope by friday something tangeable will have happened with brexit
    In general, racehorses have excellent lives.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,134
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, it's also unusual for both Government and Opposition to be incredibly bad.

    Yes. Although many Conservatives are getting a hostile reception reception when canvassing, I don't expect the local election results to be dreadful, unlike 1995, because the Opposition are viewed as badly.
    Yes only a last minute revocation would wipe out the Tories locally on May 2nd. The expected eurofudge can kicking will just result in a low turnout as Leave voters stay at home in protest as by and large there are not that many UKIP or other Leave candidates in this round of locals. LDs and Lab could pick up seats more by default than any enthusiasm
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 326

    Foxy said:

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    The Will of the People was to deny Strong and Stable her platform for government in an election that she called on her main policy of Brexit.

    May then forshadowed Brexit herself, by constantly promising to go, yet never actually doing it.

    I wouldn't put it like that. I'd say the election replicated the divisions of the referendum.

    One of her big mistakes was to assume the country would rally behind given that decision had already been made.
    That's a good point, and I was surprised that there wasn't an immediate shift in opinion behind Brexit after the referendum. So I would have made the same mistake. I wonder if this is such a visceral issue that it will take a generation for a consensus to emerge.
    I had no illusions that opinion would shift behind Brexit but I otherwise agree. I think she was guilty of believing her own press and the polls were astonishingly favourable. I would have done it. The wafer thin majority Cameron bequeathed her would have caused problems even if she had not gone to the country. The decision made sense but the implementation was appalling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    Foxy said:

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    The Will of the People was to deny Strong and Stable her platform for government in an election that she called on her main policy of Brexit.

    May then forshadowed Brexit herself, by constantly promising to go, yet never actually doing it.

    I wouldn't put it like that. I'd say the election replicated the divisions of the referendum.

    One of her big mistakes was to assume the country would rally behind given that decision had already been made.
    That's a good point, and I was surprised that there wasn't an immediate shift in opinion behind Brexit after the referendum. So I would have made the same mistake. I wonder if this is such a visceral issue that it will take a generation for a consensus to emerge.
    Oddly, after the 1975 referendum, public opinion turned very hostile towards EEC membership.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    edited April 6
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    The final race on the Grand National card is sponsored by swanky solicitors Pinsent Masons and imo can be won by the appropriately named Chief Justice who is dropping in class and will be ridden by top Irish amateur Jamie Codd. 7/1 generally (blue on Oddschecker). Remember to save your bus fare home!

    I think you meant “leading law firm Pinsent Masons with a market-leading pensions practice”.
    Thats the one. Is the nag a good 'un?
    I’ve had a flutter - thanks @DecrepitJohnL
    I hope everyone is using their Bet365 account to take the long term money giveaway offer today.
    I seem to be locked out of mine, have gone with PP who are paying 6 places on e/w.

    I quite fancy Rameses de Teillee and Step Back for e/w. Any one taking horseracing bets from me is a fool though!
    £12.50 E/W Ramses De Teillee 25-1
    £12.50 E/W Tea for Two 80-1
    £25 E/W Monbeg Notorious 66-1
    £25 E/W Dounikos 33-1
    £25 E/W Jury Duty 20-1
    £25 E/W Rock The Kasbah 20-1

    1/2 stakes back so the cost was £125 (1/4 the odds, 5 places)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,521



    I may not be popular but my family oppose the grand national on the grounds of the number of horses killed, often in agony, all for excitement. It is barbaric.

    I agree. It's a fucking disgrace. Getting plastered and racing horses to death isn't a great day out.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,245
    Morning all :)

    As an aside on the Grand National, even though I'm a racing fan, I don't worship the race or Cheltenham the way so many do. I much prefer Royal Ascot and the flat these days.

    I'd make two points about the race and how the changes have affected it - first, it's a better race in terms of horse quality than it used to be. The Gold Cup fourth is carrying top weight, the bottom weight is a former Scottish National winner. The no-hopers who used to get into the race 20 or 30 years ago are gone.

    So you have better horses and better riders. At the same time, however, the fences have been made "easier". The impact is to make the race akin to the Scottish or Welsh National but with different jumps. It's a quality long distance handicap chase. The corollary of that is better horses over easier fences go quicker and speed kills. Horses travelling at speed are more at risk than the plodder who just stops so I'd argue the changes have made the race more of a risk to the horse than otherwise.

    As to what wins today, JOE FARRELL ran a strong race at Newbury and if you can get 20s it's a decent e/w price. I don't really have a strong view on the race this year.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,191
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. NorthWales, would such a vote be tabled and binding?

    I am not an expert in Parliamentary procedure but without action we most certainly would no deal.

    And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
    I have always said that Brexit would go with a whimper rather than a bang. Its hard to get too excited on a lovely spring day when there is a big horse race and some interesting football. Leicester could leapfrog to 7th place if we win away at poor old Huddersfield. I expect it will be a while before we see them again in the PL.

    I am in the Smoke on Friday for a meeting, was planning to pop to Parliament Square to see the circus in the evening. I expect an extension though. Tusk will have his way and 29/3/20 will be the new Brexit day.

    I may not be popular but my family oppose the grand national on the grounds of the number of horses killed, often in agony, all for excitement. It is barbaric.

    I hope you enjoy your football and let us hope by friday something tangeable will have happened with brexit
    In general, racehorses have excellent lives.
    They do... my problem with betting on jumps racing is that it causes you cheer when a horse falls and potentially dies, if you’ve backed something else. I prefer to watch it without having a bet, or if I have a bet, I don’t watch it!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    isam said:

    Good article David. And it all stems back to the disastrous GE2017.

    As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.

    It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.

    This week May gave Corbyn a level of legitimacy he could only have dreamed of a year or two ago. How can the Tories warn that his Premiership would be a disaster when she invited him in to make the biggest decision in recent history?

    Dominic Grieve is the man to blame for the whole mess, if it's true it were he who secured MPs having the final say on the deal. Had May's deal needed no ratification from the House, this would have all been over long ago
    She didn't give him anything, that argument is one of the silliest of this week. He is backed by millions in the country and already a viable PM as a result whatever the government did. Recognising parliamentary arithmetic and making an appeal to him in the national Intetest was a sign of weakness and desperation but didn't add any legitimacy to him. Its simple fact that nothing has a majority and working together might.

    Of all May's bad actions offering to just talk with the man because her position is weak is not one of them and I find it hilarious so many in her party found that action the final straw. It is so undeniably a partisan justification. The one time she at least attempts, to some small degree, to be non partisan, and she's condemned
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