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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,370

    It is not often that Glasgow is considered part of the cosmopolitan, metropolitan elite!! Through the elections and over the last few years Glasgow has remained a hub of remain. Not quite at the level of Edinburgh but still solidly 2/3 or more wishing to stay in the EU.

    It is very hard now to envisage a scenario where Scotland will not stay close to the EU. In the case of a hard Brexit then a rapid move to independence and re-joining is the most likely route. Following the WA route and the election of someone like Boris to replace Maybot and implement the new agreement with Europe may well have the same impact.

    Without Scotland, England will become more geared towards Brexit and divergence on Europe may become wider reducing the likelihood of Scotland fully integrating with England again.
    The next few weeks are really the last chance to save the Union in my opinion. I hope May understands this fully.



    I live in Scotland (not claiming that automatically qualifies me as an expert) and I don't agree. I'd say the chattering classes are very exercised by Brexit (as they are in England), but the for rest, though they would certainly class themselves as against, will see how it goes. I see no love of the EU outside the nicer Edinburgh suburbs.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    They weren't ready so they asked for an extension.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    They weren't ready so they asked for an extension.
    Before going round and round in circles, jumping invented obstacles, until every other choice had fallen and one passed the post.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936

    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    "the Prime Minister and her advisers have pursued an approach that will now be used in university courses on international relations as a textbook case of how not to negotiate."

    Goodwin in the Telegraph

    Yet they got the agreement.

    Its our politicians who don't want it.
    May failed hugely to negotiate support in the HoC.
    True but she can't be blamed that the ERG meekly supported what she was doing and then had their tantrum when the negotiation was complete.

    They should have opposed May from 2016 onwards if they wanted their 100% Hard Brexit rather than May's 80% Hard Brexit.

    But, of course, back in 2016 they would have been cheering May's Deal to the rafters.
    The Mansionhouse speech was nothing like how the WA turned out.
    It was a big mistake pandering to her nutters when she should have been doing the opposite
    Especially when the country was so divided. After all Leave's majority wasn't much more than marginal.
    Exactly so. And that should have been the first item on the leavers' agenda. How do you build the support for such a huge and hazardous project?
    For some of us it was. Then the Tory party chose May as leader and any chance of compromise went up in smoke
    You don't think the xenophobic campaign had anything to do with it?
    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    UK's new national security strategy unveiled.

    https://twitter.com/kriekstina/status/1114211350153179136

    Is this a fucking joke? I just can't tell. My level of functional satire detection has been brexited down to zero.
    It isn't quite a stupid as it looks. While it would only keep out the tiny minority of honest terrorrists, the question has a function.

    If someone is later found out to have been a war criminal etc, they can be legally deprived of their passport on the grounds of making a false statement on the application.
    Yeah, it’s why the US ESTA application has similar questons. The form for a US immigrant visa is even more specific. I was asked if I’d ever oppressed the Haitian people for instance. The US naturalization form is quite interesting too: has lots of questions about whether you’ve ever been in a militia or auxiliary police unit. I did attend the Cubs for one night, but I think that still meant I could tick “NO” to those questions.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    "the Prime Minister and her advisers have pursued an approach that will now be used in university courses on international relations as a textbook case of how not to negotiate."

    Goodwin in the Telegraph

    Yet they got the agreement.

    Its our politicians who don't want it.
    May failed hugely to negotiate support in the HoC.
    True but she can't be blamed that the ERG meekly supported what she was doing and then had their tantrum when the negotiation was complete.

    They should have opposed May from 2016 onwards if they wanted their 100% Hard Brexit rather than May's 80% Hard Brexit.

    But, of course, back in 2016 they would have been cheering May's Deal to the rafters.
    The Mansionhouse speech was nothing like how the WA turned out.
    It was a big mistake pandering to her nutters when she should have been doing the opposite
    Especially when the country was so divided. After all Leave's majority wasn't much more than marginal.
    Exactly so. And that should have been the first item on the leavers' agenda. How do you build the support for such a huge and hazardous project?
    For some of us it was. Then the Tory party chose May as leader and any chance of compromise went up in smoke
    You don't think the xenophobic campaign had anything to do with it?
    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,975
    Good afternoon, my fellow omnivores.

    Gentle reminder that my latest and most murderous (probably) book, Crown of Blood, is out now. Better still, it completes a trilogy, so there are three new books to buy if you haven't yet.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Crown-Blood-Bloody-Trilogy-Book-ebook/dp/B07PLFC2PB/
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    They weren't ready so they asked for an extension.
    Before going round and round in circles, jumping invented obstacles, until every other choice had fallen and one passed the post.
    very good
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    It is not often that Glasgow is considered part of the cosmopolitan, metropolitan elite!! Through the elections and over the last few years Glasgow has remained a hub of remain. Not quite at the level of Edinburgh but still solidly 2/3 or more wishing to stay in the EU.

    It is very hard now to envisage a scenario where Scotland will not stay close to the EU. In the case of a hard Brexit then a rapid move to independence and re-joining is the most likely route. Following the WA route and the election of someone like Boris to replace Maybot and implement the new agreement with Europe may well have the same impact.

    Without Scotland, England will become more geared towards Brexit and divergence on Europe may become wider reducing the likelihood of Scotland fully integrating with England again.
    The next few weeks are really the last chance to save the Union in my opinion. I hope May understands this fully.



    I live in Scotland (not claiming that automatically qualifies me as an expert) and I don't agree. I'd say the chattering classes are very exercised by Brexit (as they are in England), but the for rest, though they would certainly class themselves as against, will see how it goes. I see no love of the EU outside the nicer Edinburgh suburbs.
    Yet, correct me if I’m wrong, every single constiuency in Scotland voted Remain.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    One of the things that will interest me about the next General Election is whether, should Mr Herdson transpire to be correct and Brexit ends up never happening, there is any significant decrease in turnout.

    It's often said that, for many people, the referendum represented the first time in their lives that they believed that their vote actually counted for something. This is particularly thought to be the case for less well-off voters, particularly those in Northern constituencies with enormous Labour majorities, but actually I can identify with them as well. I'm a comfortably off voter in a southern English town where the local Conservative MP, and Conservative control of both the County and District Council (not that councils matter much anyway,) would all survive a nuclear holocaust. I had no strong feelings about the poll on the change of the voting system either, and therefore the EU referendum did genuinely feel like the first and only time I was ever consulted in a meaningful way about any political decision.

    I voted to leave the EU and, if Mr Herdson is right (which he may well be) and Parliament is effectively given as much can-kicking time as it wants to wriggle out of the decision altogether, then we're not going to. Having previously been a civic duty voter who traipsed down to the polling station to wield the stubby pencil every year or two, I have now drawn the logical conclusion that voting at all - for anything related to the state, anyway - is a futile exercise and no longer worth the bother. Indeed, it never really was. I'm a trade union member and will keep participating in ballots that they organise, but as regards anything to do with the state, it's over. My polling card for next month's locals is already in the shredding pile, and if I end up getting one for the Europeans then it will follow.

    It makes me wonder how many more people will have drawn similar conclusions? I'm given to understand that the by-election turnout on Thursday wasn't so bad, so perhaps I'm the only one? It's quite possible that, in a few years' time, everything will have gone back to how it was and all that has transpired between 2016 and now will be naught but an increasingly distant, half-remembered nightmare. Whatever. It's just a spectator sport, after all.

    Unfortunately that plays straight into the hands of those who regard the referendum result as something that has to be overturned whatever and how ever long it might take. They literally don't care if the wrong sort of people in their eyes are disillusioned and opt out.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056
    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,370
    edited April 2019
    rpjs said:

    It is not often that Glasgow is considered part of the cosmopolitan, metropolitan elite!! Through the elections and over the last few years Glasgow has remained a hub of remain. Not quite at the level of Edinburgh but still solidly 2/3 or more wishing to stay in the EU.

    It is very hard now to envisage a scenario where Scotland will not stay close to the EU. In the case of a hard Brexit then a rapid move to independence and re-joining is the most likely route. Following the WA route and the election of someone like Boris to replace Maybot and implement the new agreement with Europe may well have the same impact.

    Without Scotland, England will become more geared towards Brexit and divergence on Europe may become wider reducing the likelihood of Scotland fully integrating with England again.
    The next few weeks are really the last chance to save the Union in my opinion. I hope May understands this fully.



    I live in Scotland (not claiming that automatically qualifies me as an expert) and I don't agree. I'd say the chattering classes are very exercised by Brexit (as they are in England), but the for rest, though they would certainly class themselves as against, will see how it goes. I see no love of the EU outside the nicer Edinburgh suburbs.
    Yet, correct me if I’m wrong, every single constiuency in Scotland voted Remain.
    I don't know what the breakdown in constituencies was. I know every region voted against, with the Highland region being the nearest run thing. But that doesn't translate into a passion or even a liking for the institution. Scotland is not a Northern London (Edinburgh possible excepted).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    They weren't ready so they asked for an extension.
    Before going round and round in circles, jumping invented obstacles, until every other choice had fallen and one passed the post.
    very good
    Would have been better if I'd remembered the fences are made of dead wood that gets knocked off at every circuit.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    "the Prime Minister and her advisers have pursued an approach that will now be used in university courses on international relations as a textbook case of how not to negotiate."

    Goodwin in the Telegraph

    Yet they got the agreement.

    Its our politicians who don't want it.
    May failed hugely to negotiate support in the HoC.
    True but she can't be blamed that the ERG meekly supported what she was doing and then had their tantrum when the negotiation was complete.

    They should have opposed May from 2016 onwards if they wanted their 100% Hard Brexit rather than May's 80% Hard Brexit.

    But, of course, back in 2016 they would have been cheering May's Deal to the rafters.
    The Mansionhouse speech was nothing like how the WA turned out.
    It was a big mistake pandering to her nutters when she should have been doing the opposite
    Especially when the country was so divided. After all Leave's majority wasn't much more than marginal.
    Exactly so. And that should have been the first item on the leavers' agenda. How do you build the support for such a huge and hazardous project?
    For some of us it was. Then the Tory party chose May as leader and any chance of compromise went up in smoke
    You don't think the xenophobic campaign had anything to do with it?
    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    It seems people are confusing MP behaviour with that of voters. If the referendum had been a vote in parliament on June 23rd 2016, Remain would have won easily, but I have little doubt that there is a majority for respecting the result amongst the voting public.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Blimey, yesterday it was alleged Australian anglo-phobia, today whether it's ethical to eat meat.

    You never know what filling you're going to get in your Brexit sandwich with PB!

    I can go on about restoration of the Wuffingas kingdom of east Anglia if you like, I'm probably overdue
    Where would you find the descendants of the kings? Or would we start gain with a newly convened Witan?
    Oh a newly convened Witan. Let the fittest rule.
    As for someone's suggestion of the Son of Wotan SeanT, hes disqualified by being a pasty munching peninsular boy. Wrong arse end of the island
    To be fair Norfolk looks more like an arse than Cornwall
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Norm said:

    One of the things that will interest me about the next General Election is whether, should Mr Herdson transpire to be correct and Brexit ends up never happening, there is any significant decrease in turnout.

    It's often said that, for many people, the referendum represented the first time in their lives that they believed that their vote actually counted for something. This is particularly thought to be the case for less well-off voters, particularly those in Northern constituencies with enormous Labour majorities, but actually I can identify with them as well. I'm a comfortably off voter in a southern English town where the local Conservative MP, and Conservative control of both the County and District Council (not that councils matter much anyway,) would all survive a nuclear holocaust. I had no strong feelings about the poll on the change of the voting system either, and therefore the EU referendum did genuinely feel like the first and only time I was ever consulted in a meaningful way about any political decision.

    I voted to leave the EU and, if Mr Herdson is right (which he may well be) and Parliament is effectively given as much can-kicking time as it wants to wriggle out of the decision altogether, then we're not going to. Having previously been a civic duty voter who traipsed down to the polling station to wield the stubby pencil every year or two, I have now drawn the logical conclusion that voting at all - for anything related to the state, anyway - is a futile exercise and no longer worth the bother. Indeed, it never really was. I'm a trade union member and will keep participating in ballots that they organise, but as regards anything to do with the state, it's over. My polling card for next month's locals is already in the shredding pile, and if I end up getting one for the Europeans then it will follow.

    It makes me wonder how many more people will have drawn similar conclusions? I'm given to understand that the by-election turnout on Thursday wasn't so bad, so perhaps I'm the only one? It's quite possible that, in a few years' time, everything will have gone back to how it was and all that has transpired between 2016 and now will be naught but an increasingly distant, half-remembered nightmare. Whatever. It's just a spectator sport, after all.

    Unfortunately that plays straight into the hands of those who regard the referendum result as something that has to be overturned whatever and how ever long it might take. They literally don't care if the wrong sort of people in their eyes are disillusioned and opt out.
    So how would you advise someone who thinks it is a terrible idea that should be reversed to behave?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056
    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    It seems to have got steadily later.

    I remember the result being announced at football matches.

    I expect its been delayed firstly to miss clashing with football and secondly to give more time for people to spend money on the course.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    The fall of the Berlin wall took at least 2 years!!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    The fall of the Berlin wall took at least 2 years!!
    Bits of it are still there. And there's a big line of bricks in the pavements right through Berlin's centre to show where it stood.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Britain 'will run out of fish and chips' under no deal Brexit

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/britain-will-run-fish-chips-no-deal-brexit-180348350.html

    Not scallops though
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    Only with barriers being put up rather than pulled down.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    This is absolute nonsense, it should be pretty clear by now our political class has absolutely no intention of diverging unless it is forced.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    Only with barriers being put up rather than pulled down.
    Yes, by the EU.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    Only with barriers being put up rather than pulled down.
    Yes, by the EU.
    The EU are behind Brexit? I think you are a little confused.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Norm said:

    One of the things that will interest me about the next General Election is whether, should Mr Herdson transpire to be correct and Brexit ends up never happening, there is any significant decrease in turnout.

    It's often said that, for many people, the referendum represented the first time in their lives that they believed that their vote actually counted for something. This is particularly thought to be the case for less well-off voters, particularly those in Northern constituencies with enormous Labour majorities, but actually I can identify with them as well. I'm a comfortably off voter in a southern English town where the local Conservative MP, and Conservative control of both the County and District Council (not that councils matter much anyway,) would all survive a nuclear holocaust. I had no strong feelings about the poll on the change of the voting system either, and therefore the EU referendum did genuinely feel like the first and only time I was ever consulted in a meaningful way about any political decision.

    I voted to leave the EU and, if Mr Herdson is right (which he may well be) and Parliament is effectively given as much can-kicking time as it wants to wriggle out of the decision altogether, then we're not going to. Having previously been a civic duty voter who traipsed down to the polling station to wield the stubby pencil every year or two, I have now drawn the logical conclusion that voting at all - for anything related to the state, anyway - is a futile exercise and no longer worth the bother. Indeed, it never really was. I'm a trade union member and will keep participating in ballots that they organise, but as regards anything to do with the state, it's over. My polling card for next month's locals is already in the shredding pile, and if I end up getting one for the Europeans then it will follow.

    It makes me wonder how many more people will have drawn similar conclusions? I'm given to understand that the by-election turnout on Thursday wasn't so bad, so perhaps I'm the only one? It's quite possible that, in a few years' time, everything will have gone back to how it was and all that has transpired between 2016 and now will be naught but an increasingly distant, half-remembered nightmare. Whatever. It's just a spectator sport, after all.

    Unfortunately that plays straight into the hands of those who regard the referendum result as something that has to be overturned whatever and how ever long it might take. They literally don't care if the wrong sort of people in their eyes are disillusioned and opt out.
    This kind of argument would only hold water if voting made any difference to anything.

    It doesn't.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143

    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    Only with barriers being put up rather than pulled down.
    Yes, by the EU.
    The EU are behind Brexit? I think you are a little confused.
    Who then is going to put the barriers up?
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    O/T

    Somehow I think this migrant's message isn't going to carry much weight with the people he's appealing to.

    "Stay at home, says migrant who made it to Spain" (£)
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/stay-at-home-says-migrant-who-made-it-to-spain-czpwcn8gz
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    What we've had is the likes of Mogg spending two plus years in the twatter feedback loop becoming ever more extreme until they refused what would have been beyond their wishes not long before.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    If Brexit doesn’t happen the Tory party will never win a GE again...

    This is why I still expect Brexit to happen.

    Cooper LetLabourWin likely hastens May’s departure, though.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    Only with barriers being put up rather than pulled down.
    Yes, by the EU.
    The EU are behind Brexit? I think you are a little confused.
    Who then is going to put the barriers up?
    The idea that we could pursue a completely divergent customs and trade policy than the EU, and not have a border is why Brexit is failing.

    Either accept that there needs to be a customs border (and the consequences of it) or do not diverge. It really is that simple.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    Exactly.

    Instead imbeciles like Mogg thought that Brexit was an Event rather than a Process.
    It's the flip side of seeing the EU as an oppressive superstate. They thought Brexit would be like the fall of the Berlin wall.
    Only with barriers being put up rather than pulled down.
    Yes, by the EU.
    The EU are behind Brexit? I think you are a little confused.
    Who then is going to put the barriers up?
    We are. In the case of FOM we are and always were going to make coming here more difficult if Leave won. It was the root basis of the Leave campaign. In the case of everything else leaving the single market and customs union means certain barriers come up automatically as a result of our decision. Either way Brexit, the UK’s decision, was always going to put up barriers. It had to.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,246
    rpjs said:

    It is not often that Glasgow i.s considered part of the cosmopolitan, metropolitan elite!! Through the elections and over the last few years Glasgow has remained a hub of remain. Not quite at the level of Edinburgh but still solidly 2/3 or more wishing to stay in the EU.

    It is very hard now to envisage a scenario where Scotland will not stay close to the EU. In the case of a hard Brexit then a rapid move to independence and re-joining is the most likely route. Following the WA route and the election of someone like Boris to replace Maybot and implement the new agreement with Europe may well have the same impact.

    Without Scotland, England will become more geared towards Brexit and divergence on Europe may become wider reducing the likelihood of Scotland fully integrating with England again.
    The next few weeks are really the last chance to save the Union in my opinion. I hope May understands this fully.



    I live in Scotland (not claiming that automatically qualifies me as an expert) and I don't agree. I'd say the chattering classes are very exercised by Brexit (as they are in England), but the for rest, though they would certainly class themselves as against, will see how it goes. I see no love of the EU outside the nicer Edinburgh suburbs.
    Yet, correct me if I’m wrong, every single constiuency in Scotland voted Remain.
    Indeed. By contrast in NI half the constituencies voted Leave.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    They weren't ready so they asked for an extension.
    Before going round and round in circles, jumping invented obstacles, until every other choice had fallen and one passed the post.
    very good
    Would have been better if I'd remembered the fences are made of dead wood that gets knocked off at every circuit.
    Mrs May's deal respects the result, but ERG and DUP vote against it. Nobody wants No Deal crash out Brexit.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056

    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529

    My lies good and their lies bad.

    And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Is it my imagination or am I correct in my sense that the Grand National is now run much later in the day than was formerly the case? I seem to remember the race taking place fairly early in the afternoon - circa 3pm - rather than 5.30.

    They weren't ready so they asked for an extension.
    Before going round and round in circles, jumping invented obstacles, until every other choice had fallen and one passed the post.
    very good
    Would have been better if I'd remembered the fences are made of dead wood that gets knocked off at every circuit.
    Mrs May's deal respects the result, but ERG and DUP vote against it. Nobody wants No Deal crash out Brexit.
    They're the dead wood I was thinking of.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936

    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    "the Prime Minister and her advisers have pursued an approach that will now be used in university courses on international relations as a textbook case of how not to negotiate."

    Goodwin in the Telegraph

    Yet they got the agreement.

    Its our politicians who don't want it.
    May failed hugely to negotiate support in the HoC.
    True but she can't be blamed that the ERG meekly supported what she was doing and then had their tantrum when the negotiation was complete.

    They should have opposed May from 2016 onwards if they wanted their 100% Hard Brexit rather than May's 80% Hard Brexit.

    But, of course, back in 2016 they would have been cheering May's Deal to the rafters.
    The Mansionhouse speech was nothing like how the WA turned out.
    It was a big mistake pandering to her nutters when she should have been doing the opposite
    Especially when the country was so divided. After all Leave's majority wasn't much more than marginal.
    Exactly so. And that should have been the first item on the leavers' agenda. How do you build the support for such a huge and hazardous project?
    For some of us it was. Then the Tory party chose May as leader and any chance of compromise went up in smoke
    You don't think the xenophobic campaign had anything to do with it?
    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    kinabalu said:

    Certainly - the future relationship was always going to be 'up for grabs' in future years just as anything government does is dependent upon the prevailing political view in future years.

    And this is one of the mistakes of the ERG mindset - having a crash out No Deal doesn't guarantee the UK being out of the EU forever but rather increases the risks of rejoining quickly if things go wrong.

    What May's Deal does is allow an orderly exit and creates a starting point towards the Hard level of Brexit.

    It does. And if they have confidence in their vision they ought to be going for it. Get out, diverge over the years and decades to come, based on events, trends, elections etc. Took us nearly half a century to integrate this far, why assume that the opposite should take less than 5 years. Seems a bit silly. And one thing is absolutely certain, if you don't get out you do not diverge at all. We are not going through this again.
    This is absolute nonsense, it should be pretty clear by now our political class has absolutely no intention of diverging unless it is forced.
    And to add, whether we leave or remain it's obvious we are never going to get another referendum on our relationship with the EU ever again, certainly not on terms acceptable to leavers.

    So really for leavers it's all or nothing in actually permanently changing direction, anything less than a clean break means falling back into the EU's orbit.
  • Options
    alednamalednam Posts: 185
    The EU won’t agree to Tusk’s flextention for a year unless we have a definite plan. And I really can’t see that telling the EU that the chances of a g.e. in the UK are increasing does anything but detract from the idea that we have a convincing plan.
    Here’s a plan.
    [1.] It will be determined, in light of, and taking account of, the stalled discussions between May (et al) and Corbyn (et al) what options there are for a political declaration which introduces one or another definite end-state for the future UK/EU relationship.
    
[2.] Parliament will use indicative voting to choose between the options, making use of the methods and voting systems advocated in the Hansard Society’s paper: ‘Indicative Votes: Options, voting methods and voting systems’. (The Hansard Society prepared the paper when a no-deal exit and revocation of A50 were in the reckoning. But we know that Parliament rejects both of these, at least for the short term. So we’ve got past some of the options envisaged in the paper. What’s important now is to make clear that indicative votes can be made to work.)
    Parliament cannot be allowed to rush towards an ill-understood upshot on something of massive constitutional significance. And it’s inconceivable that [1.] and [2.] could satisfactorily be completed ahead of TMay’s requesting something of the EU. (Even [1.] will take a little time. And as for [2.], MPs need fully to understand the options and the voting system at every stage.) But a year’s extension would provide plenty of time to follow such a plan deliberatively, and time also for a confirmatory public vote (should this prove to be wanted – a question which Parliament might actually debate).
    Of course a g.e. would interfere with such a plan. But if anyone’s serious about achieving compromise, and if May is prepared to settle for such plan, then no-one should be striving to get a g.e. – yet. If the plan is accepted by the EU and there were a g.e. before long, that would be a fact the EU had to confront. But it can’t belong in any plan.
    One can't be optimistic about TMay going to the EU with a plan in which Government allows Parliamentary votes to determine the upshot. But TMay’s more or less put herself at the mercy of Parliament. And it's a plan "to deliver Brexit". And maybe she’d like to be able to blame MPs collectively if the plan doesn’t turn up trumps. She could say that she’d taken the side of democracy.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936

    It is not often that Glasgow is considered part of the cosmopolitan, metropolitan elite!! Through the elections and over the last few years Glasgow has remained a hub of remain. Not quite at the level of Edinburgh but still solidly 2/3 or more wishing to stay in the EU.

    It is very hard now to envisage a scenario where Scotland will not stay close to the EU. In the case of a hard Brexit then a rapid move to independence and re-joining is the most likely route. Following the WA route and the election of someone like Boris to replace Maybot and implement the new agreement with Europe may well have the same impact.

    Without Scotland, England will become more geared towards Brexit and divergence on Europe may become wider reducing the likelihood of Scotland fully integrating with England again.
    The next few weeks are really the last chance to save the Union in my opinion. I hope May understands this fully.



    I hope the Scots Nationalists understand this as well. The best way for them to get what they want is for Brexit to happen. It is a win:win as far as I am concerned.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    "the Prime Minister and her advisers have pursued an approach that will now be used in university courses on international relations as a textbook case of how not to negotiate."

    Goodwin in the Telegraph

    Yet they got the agreement.

    Its our politicians who don't want it.
    May failed hugely to negotiate support in the HoC.
    True but she can't be blamed that the ERG meekly supported what she was doing and then had their tantrum when the negotiation was complete.

    They should have opposed May from 2016 onwards if they wanted their 100% Hard Brexit rather than May's 80% Hard Brexit.

    But, of course, back in 2016 they would have been cheering May's Deal to the rafters.
    The Mansionhouse speech was nothing like how the WA turned out.
    It was a big mistake pandering to her nutters when she should have been doing the opposite
    Especially when the country was so divided. After all Leave's majority wasn't much more than marginal.
    Exactly so. And that should have been the first item on the leavers' agenda. How do you build the support for such a huge and hazardous project?
    For some of us it was. Then the Tory party chose May as leader and any chance of compromise went up in smoke
    You don't think the xenophobic campaign had anything to do with it?
    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709

    UK's new national security strategy unveiled.

    https://twitter.com/kriekstina/status/1114211350153179136

    "an extremist organisation"
    Does UKIP or the ERG count?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So Sir Olly Letwin has ended Thatcher (via poll tax) and Brexit. Does Jezza have a picture of him on his wall ?

    I disagree- Brexit is just starting - and it’s going to see a realignment in British politics. Which is much needed.

    Anyone thinks Westminster can cancel Brexit without massive repercussions is delusional.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A general election in Australia is expected to be called at any moment.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-06/bill-shorten-says-scott-morrison-playing-games-election-date/10978324
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    TGOHF said:

    Anyone thinks Westminster can cancel Brexit without massive repercussions is delusional.

    Anyone who thinks those repercussions will be positive for the people who gave us Brexit in the first place is similarly delusional.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,011
    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    TGOHF said:

    So Sir Olly Letwin has ended Thatcher (via poll tax) and Brexit. Does Jezza have a picture of him on his wall ?

    I disagree- Brexit is just starting - and it’s going to see a realignment in British politics. Which is much needed.

    Anyone thinks Westminster can cancel Brexit without massive repercussions is delusional.

    The current remainer plan is to play the long game. Obviously cancelling Brexit now is impossible but in a year or two who knows - we may well have a majority left/snp government by then with the leave vote being fractured in the forthcoming GE.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,975
    F1: Raikkonen reckons it's easier following cars this year.

    Worth recalling Hulkenberg started 17th and was on course to finish about 6th (before his electrics died). Even bearing in mind his good start, that supports Raikkonen's view.

    Also makes Gasly look a bit poor.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936

    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    "the Prime Minister and her advisers have pursued an approach that will now be used in university courses on international relations as a textbook case of how not to negotiate."

    Goodwin in the Telegraph

    Yet they got the agreement.

    Its our politicians who don't want it.
    May failed hugely to negotiate support in the HoC.
    True but she can't be blamed that the ERG meekly supported what she was doing and then had their tantrum when the negotiation was complete.

    They should have opposed May from 2016 onwards if they wanted their 100% Hard Brexit rather than May's 80% Hard Brexit.

    But, of course, back in 2016 they would have been cheering May's Deal to the rafters.
    The Mansionhouse speech was nothing like how the WA turned out.
    It was a big mistake pandering to her nutters when she should have been doing the opposite
    Especially when the country was so divided. After all Leave's majority wasn't much more than marginal.
    Exactly so. And that should have been the first item on the leavers' agenda. How do you build the support for such a huge and hazardous project?
    For some of us it was. Then the Tory party chose May as leader and any chance of compromise went up in smoke
    You don't think the xenophobic campaign had anything to do with it?
    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
    Nope, still gibberish from you. How does that tie in with your comment of denying the winners want they want? I think your mind is finally going.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    UK's new national security strategy unveiled.

    https://twitter.com/kriekstina/status/1114211350153179136

    "an extremist organisation"
    Does UKIP or the ERG count?
    Don’t worry, soon it’ll mean anyone to the right of Mao.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    edited April 2019


    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.

    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
    Nope, still gibberish from you. How does that tie in with your comment of denying the winners want they want? I think your mind is finally going.
    You favour a form of Brexit that keeps free movement of people, do you not?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,246

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    "Bring 'em on! I'd prefer a straight fight to all this sneaking around!" :)
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    What on earth would be the question on Ref2?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    What on earth would be the question on Ref2?
    Which is more important, the economy or our political system?

    Although TBH that was the de facto question in the first one. It's just that most people didn't expect the answer we got.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,297
    edited April 2019

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Fringe nobody to fringe nobody would be more accurate.

    Does Hannan support the WDA ?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Brexit is a political graveyard, and the idiots keep digging their own graves.

    At least we will see the end of national referendums. No one will want to repeat the exercise.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Fringe nobody to fringe nobody would be more accurate.

    Does Hannan support the WDA ?
    No
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/daniel-hannan-we-are-shuffling-towards-a-deal-that-is-worse-either-than-remaining-or-leaving.html
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,297

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Fringe nobody to fringe nobody would be more accurate.

    Does Hannan support the WDA ?
    I thought he panicked and went full on for No Deal.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Any ref has to have an ERG type Brexit otherwise the betrayal narrative will go through the roof . Now that they trashed Mays deal and people have been told it’s a disaster and many believe it there has to be a different deal on offer .

    The question should be Remain or Leave .

    A two stage referendum held a week apart .

    If the public vote to leave then you then should have two choices

    Canada plus

    Mays deal

    But the ERG will have to put out a plan and explain their solution on NI in terms of Canada .

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,182
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Foxy said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Brexit is a political graveyard, and the idiots keep digging their own graves.

    At least we will see the end of national referendums. No one will want to repeat the exercise.
    I think you will find almost exactly half of the House Of Commons is quite keen on them - or at least, on second referendums.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Foxy said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Brexit is a political graveyard, and the idiots keep digging their own graves.

    At least we will see the end of national referendums. No one will want to repeat the exercise.
    Excellent, no 2nd referendum then
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    What on earth would be the question on Ref2?
    WTO / May's deal would be fair
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    What on earth would be the question on Ref2?
    Which is more important, the economy or our political system?

    Although TBH that was the de facto question in the first one. It's just that most people didn't expect the answer we got.
    There's a certain type of right-wing Leaver who thinks bringing down the welfare state would be a feature not a bug of Brexit.

    There's a certain type of left-wing Leaver who thinks bringing down capitalism would be a feature not a bug of Brexit.

    Conversely there's a certain type of Remainer who thinks discouraging the proles from ever voting again would be a feature not a bug of Revoking Brexit.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143
    nico67 said:

    Any ref has to have an ERG type Brexit otherwise the betrayal narrative will go through the roof . Now that they trashed Mays deal and people have been told it’s a disaster and many believe it there has to be a different deal on offer .

    The question should be Remain or Leave .

    A two stage referendum held a week apart .

    If the public vote to leave then you then should have two choices

    Canada plus

    Mays deal

    But the ERG will have to put out a plan and explain their solution on NI in terms of Canada .

    Canada Plus subsumes Mays deal.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community need a new saint.
    If there are EU elections will Hannan stand again and more interestingly would he be re-elected? I am not sure very many Tory supporters will even be voting for their party let alone dipping into their pockets for the campaign or knocking on doors.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited April 2019
    Norm said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community need a new saint.
    If there are EU elections will Hannan stand again and more interestingly would he be re-elected? I am not sure very many Tory supporters will even be voting for their party let alone dipping into their pockets for the campaign or knocking on doors.
    On Oddschecker it is difficult to find prices for the EU Elections. Someone posted Ladbrokes odds yesterday which had the two main parties front of the betting... I am not sure they should be, but maybe haven't thought it through properly

    Surely these EU elections are the free-est of free hits against the never less popular establishment?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited April 2019

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    What on earth would be the question on Ref2?
    Which is more important, the economy or our political system?

    Although TBH that was the de facto question in the first one. It's just that most people didn't expect the answer we got.
    There's a certain type of right-wing Leaver who thinks bringing down the welfare state would be a feature not a bug of Brexit.

    There's a certain type of left-wing Leaver who thinks bringing down capitalism would be a feature not a bug of Brexit.

    Conversely there's a certain type of Remainer who thinks discouraging the proles from ever voting again would be a feature not a bug of Revoking Brexit.
    So you're basically saying we lose the second whatever happens?

    In fairness, that's an extremely persuasive view.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited April 2019
    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community needs a new saint.
    Brexit is a political graveyard, and the idiots keep digging their own graves.

    At least we will see the end of national referendums. No one will want to repeat the exercise.
    Excellent, no 2nd referendum then
    At the current rate we won't need one. It will be overtaken by events.

    Worth re-reading Hannan's Brexit fan fiction btw :)

    https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    edited April 2019
    In my experience working with people from former pit villages and towns in County Durham, there is no real 'betrayal' narrative. It's more a 'sick of it and resigned to no Brexit' narrative. The frothers are already going to be voting UKIP or Brexit Party regardless.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162

    This is absolute nonsense, it should be pretty clear by now our political class has absolutely no intention of diverging unless it is forced.

    The Conservative Party is nothing if not a part of the political class.

    So pass the WA, leave, choose a Brexiteer leader, win a GE with max divergence in the manifesto.

    Robert is your father's brother.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    isam said:

    Norm said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community need a new saint.
    If there are EU elections will Hannan stand again and more interestingly would he be re-elected? I am not sure very many Tory supporters will even be voting for their party let alone dipping into their pockets for the campaign or knocking on doors.
    On Oddschecker it is difficult to find prices for the EU Elections. Someone posted Ladbrokes odds yesterday which had the two main parties front of the betting... I am not sure they should be, but maybe haven't thought it through properly

    Surely these EU elections are the free-est of free hits against the never less popular establishment?
    You may be underestimating the willingness of tribal voters to turn out.

    I am hoping for some LD and Green gains, and a clearout of the kippers, I don't think they will replicate 2014.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Norm said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community need a new saint.
    If there are EU elections will Hannan stand again and more interestingly would he be re-elected? I am not sure very many Tory supporters will even be voting for their party let alone dipping into their pockets for the campaign or knocking on doors.
    Hannan was top of the Tory list in 2014 in the south east region - the largest region with 11 MEPs. I expect if he wants to stand again he will be re-elected.

    People will vote Tory - or not - and they would only need 8 per cent of the vote to win one seat. Frankly the only south east region MEP the majority of voters could name is Nigel Farage - its a party vote not a personal one.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    kinabalu said:

    This is absolute nonsense, it should be pretty clear by now our political class has absolutely no intention of diverging unless it is forced.

    The Conservative Party is nothing if not a part of the political class.

    So pass the WA, leave, choose a Brexiteer leader, win a GE with max divergence in the manifesto.

    Robert is your father's brother.
    *Pedant hat ON*

    Actually, the original saying was about Bob being his mother's brother.

    *Pedant hat OFF*
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
    I see, and you never change your mind on any subject, not even after three years during which your knowledge of that subject had increased tenfold? And even if you haven't changed your mind where is the harm in asking?

    As for "We were told, " you must not believe smarmy old Etonians who con you into thinking they can rewrite the constitution by press release. They can't.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,975
    Mr. Doethur, as an aside, that's a reference to Robert Cecil, who I think took over his father William's work.

    One suspects they'd be making a better fist of leaving the EU than the frontbench charlatans.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    What on earth would be the question on Ref2?
    Which is more important, the economy or our political system?

    Although TBH that was the de facto question in the first one. It's just that most people didn't expect the answer we got.
    There's a certain type of right-wing Leaver who thinks bringing down the welfare state would be a feature not a bug of Brexit.

    There's a certain type of left-wing Leaver who thinks bringing down capitalism would be a feature not a bug of Brexit.

    Conversely there's a certain type of Remainer who thinks discouraging the proles from ever voting again would be a feature not a bug of Revoking Brexit.
    So you're basically saying we lose the second whatever happens?

    In fairness, that's an extremely persuasive view.
    We could always chose a path of compromise and so confound the three groups I mentioned.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
    I see, and you never change your mind on any subject, not even after three years during which your knowledge of that subject had increased tenfold? And even if you haven't changed your mind where is the harm in asking?

    As for "We were told, " you must not believe smarmy old Etonians who con you into thinking they can rewrite the constitution by press release. They can't.
    It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    brendan16 said:

    Norm said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community need a new saint.
    If there are EU elections will Hannan stand again and more interestingly would he be re-elected? I am not sure very many Tory supporters will even be voting for their party let alone dipping into their pockets for the campaign or knocking on doors.
    Hannan was top of the Tory list in 2014 in the south east region - the largest region with 11 MEPs. I expect if he wants to stand again he will be re-elected.

    People will vote Tory - or not - and they would only need 8 per cent of the vote to win one seat. Frankly the only south east region MEP the majority of voters could name is Nigel Farage - its a party vote not a personal one.
    That's interesting - I imagine even a Tory party discredited by Brexit failure would manage that. Would explain his sudden conversion to the longer game against the wishes of most of his supporters, the business community and the leave voting public.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    ydoethur said:

    *Pedant hat ON*

    Actually, the original saying was about Bob being his mother's brother.

    *Pedant hat OFF*

    Well one man's pedantry is another's razor sharp eye for detail.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
    I see, and you never change your mind on any subject, not even after three years during which your knowledge of that subject had increased tenfold? And even if you haven't changed your mind where is the harm in asking?

    As for "We were told, " you must not believe smarmy old Etonians who con you into thinking they can rewrite the constitution by press release. They can't.
    It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.
    The advantage of living under the rule of law, as we do, is that that makes no difference. Try Africa if you want the law to be rewritten on the fly by Big Men giving interviews on the telly.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Norm said:

    I've looked & looked for the words taken out of context which means wee Dan has been misinterpreted, but danged if I can see it.

    https://twitter.com/FrankmcnallyIT/status/1114102594866241536

    Many a reputation has been destroyed by Brexit, but surely none more so than Hannan's. He's gone from 'rock star' to national figure of fun in a couple of years. The Leave community need a new saint.
    If there are EU elections will Hannan stand again and more interestingly would he be re-elected? I am not sure very many Tory supporters will even be voting for their party let alone dipping into their pockets for the campaign or knocking on doors.
    Does anyone have a clue what will happen if and when the European elections are held? I'm not sure that I do. Best guess is that the Conservatives come first in a heavily splintered field: that part of the Eurosceptic vote that was going to defect from both them and Labour probably already went in its entirety in 2014, when Ukip came first - but this time around its vote share is liable to be partitioned between the Batten and Farage factions.

    Effectively, it's arguable that the Tories thus have no new competitors to contend with, whereas TIG has appeared on the progressive wing and, if it achieves any kind of success, this is likely to have a disproportionate effect on Labour.

    So, in short, if he stands again and is high enough up their list then he ought to get back in without too much trouble. But I stand to be disproved by events.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited April 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
    I see, and you never change your mind on any subject, not even after three years during which your knowledge of that subject had increased tenfold? And even if you haven't changed your mind where is the harm in asking?

    As for "We were told, " you must not believe smarmy old Etonians who con you into thinking they can rewrite the constitution by press release. They can't.
    It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.
    The advantage of living under the rule of law, as we do, is that that makes no difference. Try Africa if you want the law to be rewritten on the fly by Big Men giving interviews on the telly.
    Just get over it
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Charles said:

    Off-topic:

    "Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588

    I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.

    The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.

    We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.

    (*) With mat.

    Why wouldn’t you just go it to use it? You do t need someone to guard the door.
    As I said in my post:
    " In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him."

    But often that isn't really an alternative when you're on your own with a child. And some women aren't exactly welcoming of a man with a baby or young child at times - but that's a different story ...

    Fortunately, more and more places are having unisex toilets with baby changing (often combined disabled toilet), and stay-at-home dads are being more common.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529

    My lies good and their lies bad.

    And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
    On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,975
    Mr. Jessop, that sounds rather awkward.

    Reminds me a bit of a related topic, a news segment about lack of disabled toilets in most places (with IKEA singled out as an excellent exception).
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kinabalu said:

    This is absolute nonsense, it should be pretty clear by now our political class has absolutely no intention of diverging unless it is forced.

    The Conservative Party is nothing if not a part of the political class.

    So pass the WA, leave, choose a Brexiteer leader, win a GE with max divergence in the manifesto.

    Robert is your father's brother.
    The Tories, and Labour for that matter, have made clear manifesto commitments mean **** all.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
    I see, and you never change your mind on any subject, not even after three years during which your knowledge of that subject had increased tenfold? And even if you haven't changed your mind where is the harm in asking?

    As for "We were told, " you must not believe smarmy old Etonians who con you into thinking they can rewrite the constitution by press release. They can't.
    It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.
    The advantage of living under the rule of law, as we do, is that that makes no difference. Try Africa if you want the law to be rewritten on the fly by Big Men giving interviews on the telly.
    Just get over it
    ~I "got over it" on 24 June 2016, because I didn't then and don't now see much to choose between remaining and a properly organised brexit. It's just that it now seems impossible for the latter to happen. So if your point is that I am just a disappointed europhile, it fails.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited April 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Opinion poll panels were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The MPs were Remain in 2015 and haven't changed their minds

    The voters at the 2016 referendum were Leave and we don't know if they've changed their minds

    But because the first two are unchanged, even though they were proven to be unrepresentative, people say the third is now Remain

    Well, let's try it and find out.
    No it's a reason to not try it out
    What, you think you will win a Ref2 so you don't want to have one? Why don't you just write the result yourself.
    There is no reason to have one no matter what I think the result would be.

    If Remain had won the last one I would be campaigning for a party to put another one/leaving without one in their manifesto, but wouldnt expect one because of the opinion of a panel of political geeks
    So you believe in enacting the will of the people, but are opposed to establishing what that will actually is.
    Not at all, it was established in June 2016, after we were promised the result would be final.
    I see, and you never change your mind on any subject, not even after three years during which your knowledge of that subject had increased tenfold? And even if you haven't changed your mind where is the harm in asking?

    As for "We were told, " you must not believe smarmy old Etonians who con you into thinking they can rewrite the constitution by press release. They can't.
    It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.
    The advantage of living under the rule of law, as we do, is that that makes no difference. Try Africa if you want the law to be rewritten on the fly by Big Men giving interviews on the telly.
    Just get over it
    ~I "got over it" on 24 June 2016, because I didn't then and don't now see much to choose between remaining and a properly organised brexit. It's just that it now seems impossible for the latter to happen. So if your point is that I am just a disappointed europhile, it fails.
    My point is that clamouring for a second referendum before the first result has been implemented is pitiful, and there is no sound reason to do so.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,702

    Does anyone have a clue what will happen if and when the European elections are held? I'm not sure that I do.



    Me neither. I would love to see the polls but I think they would be very susceptible to unusual turnout, especially amongst people who usually don't vote.

This discussion has been closed.