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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be the end

One of the significant constitutional changes that came out of the coalition era was a process for MPs to be recalled. We saw this used for the first time in Northern Ireland last year and we are seeing a recall petition taking place in Peterborough at the moment.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827
    edited April 6
    First like Ireland's Tiger Roll.

    The Irish may be crapping themselves but at least they're dong something about it rather than rolling about the beshitted bed and being laughed at.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900
    edited April 6
    Second.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    Good tip on Chief Justice on the pinsent masons race!

    Came in on the 6.20 to make up all my GN losses. Many thanks!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    They should lock Chris Davies up for 15 months.

    The man deserves it for being so stupid.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,864
    edited April 6
    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    You forget Wales has some very differently sized physical constituencies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    It is of course comparatively easy to reach 10% in Brecon and Radnor, which has what must be the fourth or fifth smallest population of any constituency (got a feeling it's fifth).

    But at the same time I cannot see the Liberal Democrats taking this even under these circumstances. Their organisation is moribund, their electorate has been shrinking for years (this was one that could have tipped in 2010) and the only candidate who might win it for them is most unlikely to give up her role in the assembly.

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya, or even Ian Lavery (who of course has been convicted or even prosecuted despite some distinctly peculiar financial actions).

    If he stood, and it looked like he was being hounded, I could see the very cussed voters of this seat re-electing him to annoy his opponents.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    I've nearly written a piece saying the Tory party is like California and the EU is the San Andreas fault.

    We didn't realise but the big one happened in 2016.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,191
    If the Tories are finished, Labour will follow soon after
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,332

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    But as one segment leave do they leave a vacuum which is filled by others from different sectors of the Population?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    I've nearly written a piece saying the Tory party is like California and the EU is the San Andreas fault.

    We didn't realise but the big one happened in 2016.
    Corbyn is like an asteroid.

    If he's a hit, it'll finally wipe out the dinosaurs for good and all.

    But what can we come up with for tuition fees and the Liberal Democrats?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068
    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,068
    isam said:

    If the Tories are finished, Labour will follow soon after

    I suspect it will be a bit rocky for them in government, but not terminal.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559
    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,419
    ydoethur said:

    It is of course comparatively easy to reach 10% in Brecon and Radnor, which has what must be the fourth or fifth smallest population of any constituency (got a feeling it's fifth).

    It's precisely as difficult to reach 10% of the electorate in B&R as in any other constituency.

    I suspect that if 10% was not reached in the NI seat, where you would think that SF voters would be strongly motivated to recall a DUP MP, then it will be quite hard to succeed with a partisan petition anywhere else. I'd expect a petition in B&R to fail if the Conservative Party stand by their MP.

    Peterborough is different because Labour have turned against their erstwhile representative.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 6
    philiph said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    But as one segment leave do they leave a vacuum which is filled by others from different sectors of the Population?
    Like...?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    edited April 6
    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    Thank you very much for your great tip!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559
    The trouble with destroying the Conservative and Labour Parties, is that in our system, and south of Scotland, there are really no viable alternatives other than not turning out. For that reason, I'd expect not much to have changed come the next election, whenever that will be.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    philiph said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    But as one segment leave do they leave a vacuum which is filled by others from different sectors of the Population?
    One has joined SDP, another LD, another Brexit Party and one more just given up.

    These were committee members of mine whilst I was chairman, so pretty committed and ultra loyal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    I've nearly written a piece saying the Tory party is like California and the EU is the San Andreas fault.

    We didn't realise but the big one happened in 2016.
    Corbyn is like an asteroid.

    If he's a hit, it'll finally wipe out the dinosaurs for good and all.

    But what can we come up with for tuition fees and the Liberal Democrats?
    The fall of Singapore.

    Nick Clegg = Arthur Percival.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    Thank you very much for your great tip!
    A stopped calendar is right once a year.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,191
    edited April 6
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    If the Tories are finished, Labour will follow soon after

    I suspect it will be a bit rocky for them in government, but not terminal.
    Labour voters who wanted to vote LD or UKIP or Green but stayed Red in case it let the Tories in will be free to vote as they please. It will be a great day when one of them goes
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
    Ken Clarke says it is worse than 1997.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,028
    edited April 6
    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    Seconded. Would also add that it might be better to also wait until after the locals and the GE which is also coming down the track.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,146

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    May has delivered the type of Brexit they wanted but don't want any more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    And she served a three month sentence.

    But she also repeatedly lied to the judge and tried to avoid being convicted at all, and has claimed her conviction is a result of racism rather than her own stupidity. As I understand it, Davies did not, instead pleading guilty. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    edited April 6

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    It's a middle class and business thing. The former core vote for the Tories. The party allowed the obsessives too much room and in time they have taken over. And quite how the Tories plan to hang onto their new C12 Brexit voters will be entertaining to watch. Running a moral and religious crusade to get people to vote against their own economic self interest isn't going to work here like it does in the US.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,146

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    I don't know if she profited in any way but the attempt to blame it on an innocent party was pretty despicable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,131

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
    But the big difference with 1997 is that people are invested in the issue today in a way they weren't back then. I'm not saying that the Tories don't face big issues, but I don't think we should assume that voters will react in the way people on here have reacted.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,146

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
    Ken Clarke says it is worse than 1997.
    What do you think would happen if the government supports Ken Clarke's WDA+CU option ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    edited April 6
    One side effect of Brexit is that - unlike a few years back when people wanted ideas and ideology - I rather suspect Labour would do handsomely under someone devoid of both like Cooper right now. Quiet unimaginative competence has a lot to be said for it, after the fiasco of recent years.

    That is, after all, what we thought we were getting with Mrs May.

    If only they could find a way to shuffle Corbyn off into retirement.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    And she served a three month sentence.

    But she also repeatedly lied to the judge and tried to avoid being convicted at all, and has claimed her conviction is a result of racism rather than her own stupidity. As I understand it, Davies did not, instead pleading guilty. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
    Both were guilty. I expect if either possessed a time machine, they'd go back and do things differently, or rather not do them at all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    You know not what you talk about.

    The split isn't just about the EU.

    There's a strong correlation between the ERG and socially conservative views which the One Nation wing finds anathema to them.

    It is said more than one member of the ERG has privately talked about ending same sex marriage and condemning those hetrosexual couples that have children out of wedlock.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,906
    Massive overreaction on here as always.

    Doesn't matter if Con MPs hate each other - what matters is voters.

    Re Brexit - 90%+ of voters don't care or aren't even aware of the detail. Doesn't matter in the slightest to voters whether we are in a customs union or not. Most people haven't the faintest idea what it even is.

    Only two things matter:

    Do we Leave - Yes or No
    Does immigration go down - Yes or No.

    Forget everything else.

    If we do Leave and Con gets a new leader literally everything people are getting worked up about now will be forgotten.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,775
    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
    Ken Clarke says it is worse than 1997.
    What do you think would happen if the government supports Ken Clarke's WDA+CU option ?
    Mass resignations from the government.

    I think the DUP vote against the Government in VONC, and if the ERGers VONC the government then the Tories get gubbed in the general election and we have a Corbyn Premiership.

    If the VONC doesn't pass then the next Tory leadership contest (which would start soon) will be dominated in the MPs section by the likes of Boris Johnson and Raab promising to be very hardline in the next phase of the EU talks.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,028

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    Eagles, totally agree with you right up to that last sentence. I know that the ERG have consistently proved time and again that they lack any political astuteness when it comes to getting what they want. But surely even the most stubborn of this group would not be stupid enough to throw away the whip if they vote to help bring down their own Government, thus throwing away their last vestige of influence in the Conservative party or Parliament? But then again, some of them really seem prepared to throw Brexit away altogether.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,191
    .

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    Bit harsh. A sentence to life outside the EU, with a possible appeal after 15 years, will suffice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    If the party talks like this about the handful of MPs it has who are hanging onto some sort of common sense, it really is doomed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,822
    MikeL said:

    Massive overreaction on here as always.

    Doesn't matter if Con MPs hate each other - what matters is voters.

    Re Brexit - 90%+ of voters don't care or aren't even aware of the detail. Doesn't matter in the slightest to voters whether we are in a customs union or not. Most people haven't the faintest idea what it even is.

    Only two things matter:

    Do we Leave - Yes or No
    Does immigration go down - Yes or No.

    Forget everything else.

    If we do Leave and Con gets a new leader literally everything people are getting worked up about now will be forgotten.

    If we leave, will immigration go down? This is the question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    edited April 6

    ydoethur said:

    It is of course comparatively easy to reach 10% in Brecon and Radnor, which has what must be the fourth or fifth smallest population of any constituency (got a feeling it's fifth).

    It's precisely as difficult to reach 10% of the electorate in B&R as in any other constituency.

    I suspect that if 10% was not reached in the NI seat, where you would think that SF voters would be strongly motivated to recall a DUP MP, then it will be quite hard to succeed with a partisan petition anywhere else. I'd expect a petition in B&R to fail if the Conservative Party stand by their MP.

    Peterborough is different because Labour have turned against their erstwhile representative.
    Hmmm. So getting 10% of ten is as hard as getting 10% of one thousand?

    The point is that there are a handful of towns where over half the population live - Ystradgynlais, Brecon, Builth, Knighton, Presteigne, Crickhowell and Llandrindod. Those are very small towns, and you can be anywhere in them in five minutes' brisk walk. So the logistics are less complex than in say, Cannock Chase, where there are several large centres of population rather ill-served with civic centres.

    As it happens, I agree with you. I don't think it's likely, and I would think that even if the Tories disowned him. But it isn't exactly tough going to get five thousand or so signatures compared to the 6-7000 elsewhere.

    Of course, the easiest place should be Orkney. Just as well for Alistair Carmichael they can't be launched on a whim...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,422

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    Change UK, not TIG!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,432

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    Yes, it's great, isn't it?
  • CaptainBuzzkillCaptainBuzzkill Posts: 11
    edited April 6
    IanB2 said:

    Running a moral and religious crusade to get people to vote against their own economic self interest isn't going to work here like it does in the US.

    You better tell Corbyn that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    And she served a three month sentence.

    But she also repeatedly lied to the judge and tried to avoid being convicted at all, and has claimed her conviction is a result of racism rather than her own stupidity. As I understand it, Davies did not, instead pleading guilty. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
    Nevertheless both are very simple crimes that most people will be able to identify with. Trying to palm speeding points off on someone else. Forging receipts in order to make an expenses claim. Most people on the omnibus in Peterborough and Brecon will be able to draw their own conclusions.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,822

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    Good job poor copy editing isn't a capital offence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    And she served a three month sentence.

    But she also repeatedly lied to the judge and tried to avoid being convicted at all, and has claimed her conviction is a result of racism rather than her own stupidity. As I understand it, Davies did not, instead pleading guilty. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
    Both were guilty. I expect if either possessed a time machine, they'd go back and do things differently, or rather not do them at all.
    One of them has admitted it. The other still hasn't.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,146

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
    Ken Clarke says it is worse than 1997.
    What do you think would happen if the government supports Ken Clarke's WDA+CU option ?
    Mass resignations from the government.

    I think the DUP vote against the Government in VONC, and if the ERGers VONC the government then the Tories get gubbed in the general election and we have a Corbyn Premiership.

    If the VONC doesn't pass then the next Tory leadership contest (which would start soon) will be dominated in the MPs section by the likes of Boris Johnson and Raab promising to be very hardline in the next phase of the EU talks.
    Are Conservative ministers really that desperate to see Liam Fox attempt to negotiate trade treaties ???

    Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    I particularly like: "Because they cannot speak English some Judgers let them go."

    She seems incredibly ill-informed, nasty and unintelligent. In other words, a perfect UKIP candidate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    And she served a three month sentence.

    But she also repeatedly lied to the judge and tried to avoid being convicted at all, and has claimed her conviction is a result of racism rather than her own stupidity. As I understand it, Davies did not, instead pleading guilty. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
    Nevertheless both are very simple crimes that most people will be able to identify with. Trying to palm speeding points off on someone else. Forging receipts in order to make an expenses claim. Most people on the omnibus in Peterborough and Brecon will be able to draw their own conclusions.
    This is why he should be disqualified for stupidity. What sort of idiot forges a receipt for claiming a legitimate expense on a different account?

    But if we applied that rule rigidly, Corbyn would get life and Francois and Gardiner would by dragged to Tyburn and - hmmm. Hold on. This idea is starting to have merits...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other party with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    I know what that feels like now.

    There are people on both extremes of the party - and their fans on here - who I despise more than Labour, many of whom I actually like. And they probably feel the same way about me.

    This is just what it was like before 1997.
    But the big difference with 1997 is that people are invested in the issue today in a way they weren't back then. I'm not saying that the Tories don't face big issues, but I don't think we should assume that voters will react in the way people on here have reacted.
    I don't think it'd be a wipeout because it isn't possible for one party to capture the whole MSM and genuflect to the whole nation, as Blair did so easily from 1994 to 2000.

    But, it wouldn't be pretty.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    It's a middle class and business thing. The former core vote for the Tories. The party allowed the obsessives too much room and in time they have taken over. And quite how the Tories plan to hang onto their new C12 Brexit voters will be entertaining to watch. Running a moral and religious crusade to get people to vote against their own economic self interest isn't going to work here like it does in the US.
    Yes, they were (and are) all middle class graduates but, aside from one europhile Clarkite, all pretty right wing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,146
    MikeL said:

    Massive overreaction on here as always.

    Doesn't matter if Con MPs hate each other - what matters is voters.

    Re Brexit - 90%+ of voters don't care or aren't even aware of the detail. Doesn't matter in the slightest to voters whether we are in a customs union or not. Most people haven't the faintest idea what it even is.

    Only two things matter:

    Do we Leave - Yes or No
    Does immigration go down - Yes or No.

    Forget everything else.

    If we do Leave and Con gets a new leader literally everything people are getting worked up about now will be forgotten.

    That's how I see the real world reacting as well.

    But Conservative MPs prefer to play their games.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    dixiedean said:

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    Good job poor copy editing isn't a capital offence.
    I disagree entirely. It should be the most rigorously punished of all crimes. Poison kills the body, but grammatical sloppiness kills the soul.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    Superb tip! Made up all my GN losses :-O
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,775

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    It's a middle class and business thing. The former core vote for the Tories. The party allowed the obsessives too much room and in time they have taken over. And quite how the Tories plan to hang onto their new C12 Brexit voters will be entertaining to watch. Running a moral and religious crusade to get people to vote against their own economic self interest isn't going to work here like it does in the US.
    Yes, they were (and are) all middle class graduates but, aside from one europhile Clarkite, all pretty right wing.
    Clarke was a pragmatist compared to the new generation of Europhiles that Brexit has created.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311


    Are Conservative ministers really that desperate to see Liam Fox attempt to negotiate trade treaties ???

    Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?

    Some of them are so dense light bends around them.

    Some of them think we still get a transition with No Deal.

    Heck even a former Brexit Secretary thought that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863
    edited April 6
    It's quite possible that the recall petition in Peterborough will fail but that in Brecon & Radnorshire will succeed. Consider:

    + On the one hand, we know that people, generally speaking, can't be arsed to do things that involve, well, getting off their arses. The first attempt at recall by petition, in North Antrim last year, failed because the 10% threshold wasn't reached.

    + On the other hand, the bar for success is lower in Brecon & Radnorshire because it's a Welsh constituency and therefore under-sized. Also, the Lib Dems are the challengers there and they tend to be good at mobilizing support.

    Thus, it is entirely possible that the Conservatives could lose the Welsh seat whilst being deprived of the opportunity to capture the English one. Needless to say, this would represent a suboptimal outcome for them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,828
    dixiedean said:

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    Good job poor copy editing isn't a capital offence.
    Incredibly, she : "... represents the International Buddhist Relief Organisation at the United Nations"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    You know not what you talk about.

    The split isn't just about the EU.

    There's a strong correlation between the ERG and socially conservative views which the One Nation wing finds anathema to them.

    It is said more than one member of the ERG has privately talked about ending same sex marriage and condemning those hetrosexual couples that have children out of wedlock.
    I don't agree with that, but I do agree that children born into families where the parents have made a very firm commitment to each other through marriage are more stable and secure.

    I don't think Government policy shouldn't discriminate against them in the tax & welfare system by effectively making it more financially rewarding to live apart.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559

    ydoethur said:

    Also, it has to be said that while he should probably be disqualified from Parliament for being terminally stupid, what the MP did was a fairly technical offence from which he has made no profit - unlike say Onasanya,

    Did Fiona profit? Both MPs might feel themselves slightly hard done by in that, if you take a 10,000 feet view, both were victimless crimes but back down on terra firma, both were caught bang to rights, red-handed, with smoking guns in their hands. Which MP was it who said idiots too deserve to be represented in parliament?
    Superb tip! Made up all my GN losses :-O
    Thanks. Pleased to hear it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863


    Are Conservative ministers really that desperate to see Liam Fox attempt to negotiate trade treaties ???

    Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?

    Some of them are so dense light bends around them.
    Is there really any good argument left for voting Conservative, apart from Jeremy Corbyn: Prime Minister?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    edited April 6


    Are Conservative ministers really that desperate to see Liam Fox attempt to negotiate trade treaties ???

    Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?

    Some of them are so dense light bends around them.
    Is there really any good argument left for voting Conservative, apart from Jeremy Corbyn: Prime Minister?
    No. But at the moment, that's still good enough.

    That is also however why when he goes, Tory support is likely to drop off a cliff.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,245
    Evening all :)

    To paraphrase Marc Antony "Friends, PBers, Countrymen, I come to bury the Tory Party, not to praise it".

    I'm not convinced - when HYUFD sees this, he will go on about the Corn Laws, the quarter of a century of opposition in the 19th Century etc, etc,

    There are perhaps two more relevant points - first, nature abhors a vacuum. If the current centre-right Party splits, one or two more will take its place. There will always be a natural counterpoint to any Government whether it be from the centre left or centre right. The problem for a divided centre-right (as the centre left found in the 1980s) is under FPTP it is feted to spend time in opposition until the dynamic changes.

    The second point is the Conservative Party has survived for so long by being pragmatic about the world. After the defeat of 1945, the Reform Group led by men like Butler, MacLeod and Heath forced the Party to recognise they couldn't turn the clock back on nationalisation and above all the welfare state so the only way to return to power was to accept them but persuade the electorate they could and would be run better by the Conservatives.

    The Conservatives were no longer the party of Waldron Smithers but became a modern party and got back into power relatively quickly.

    After the rout of 1997, the Conservatives came to accept Welsh and Scottish devolution because it was their only way back into the politics of those nations and also a Mayor in London as it gave them a chance in a city from which their grasp was being loosened. It took three defeats but eventually Cameron emerged as the heir to Blair and, with the notable exception of the Iraq War, accepted most of the Blair agenda while simultaneously and aided and abetted by the Orange Bookers, presided over a brief convergence of conservative and liberal thinking which led to the Coalition in 2010.

    The parties that adapt survive - those that don't are condemned to oblivion. The Conservatives will survive - they may fragment for a longer or shorter period but once Europe becomes less salient the question will then become what does a conservative 2030s look like, how is it achieved and how it can be sold to the people of that era as the way forward?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,195

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    It's a middle class and business thing. The former core vote for the Tories. The party allowed the obsessives too much room and in time they have taken over. And quite how the Tories plan to hang onto their new C12 Brexit voters will be entertaining to watch. Running a moral and religious crusade to get people to vote against their own economic self interest isn't going to work here like it does in the US.
    Yes, they were (and are) all middle class graduates but, aside from one europhile Clarkite, all pretty right wing.
    Clarke was a pragmatist compared to the new generation of Europhiles that Brexit has created.
    I don't see many agitating for the UK to join the euro and sign-up wholesale to a federal Europe. No doubt some will emerge over the next few years, but I expect it to be a minority taste even if we Remain.

    FWIW, I've been impressed with Ken Clarke throughout this process. Despite not agreeing with him, he's been honest and acted with integrity.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,796
    dixiedean said:

    MikeL said:

    Massive overreaction on here as always.

    Doesn't matter if Con MPs hate each other - what matters is voters.

    Re Brexit - 90%+ of voters don't care or aren't even aware of the detail. Doesn't matter in the slightest to voters whether we are in a customs union or not. Most people haven't the faintest idea what it even is.

    Only two things matter:

    Do we Leave - Yes or No
    Does immigration go down - Yes or No.

    Forget everything else.

    If we do Leave and Con gets a new leader literally everything people are getting worked up about now will be forgotten.

    If we leave, will immigration go down? This is the question.
    I doubt it. You'll still get migrants, just from other countries. However, I think the rate of immigration will decrease: so in one year you'll get 600,000 coming in, but the next year you'll get 500,000 coming in. People will go "we have reversed immigration!" but it'll just be slower.
  • It seems the fervent remainers have crafted a narrative that Brexit has/will destroy the Conservative party.

    I would argue their view is a parochial one that will not be shared by the average voter PROVIDING the next GE comes after the present impasse is resolved.

    Most people just do not care about the EU anywhere near as much as they care about how a future government will impact them and their families financially.

    And for people who work hard and want to get on and provide for their families there is only one realistic choice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    edited April 6

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    I particularly like: "Because they cannot speak English some Judgers let them go."

    She seems incredibly ill-informed, nasty and unintelligent. In other words, a perfect UKIP candidate.
    Her spelling and random capitalisations are truly shocking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311


    Are Conservative ministers really that desperate to see Liam Fox attempt to negotiate trade treaties ???

    Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?

    Some of them are so dense light bends around them.
    Is there really any good argument left for voting Conservative, apart from Jeremy Corbyn: Prime Minister?
    That's pretty much the primary reason why I'm still a Tory member.

    (That and I hope to have vote in the next Tory leadership contest which might save mu party and the country.)

    That 90 Tory MPs voted against the SI to extend Article 50 shows we're unfit for government.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,338

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are finished whatever happens, sadly. There's no way to square the circle. Well played, Tories, but out now. Back to the pavilion.

    Half of my university association have now defected, or won't vote Tory again. They all used to be true blue.

    That's how I know we're finished.
    What's the reason for their ire? Brexit not likely to be hard enough for them, or Theresa the Traitor's collaboration with the communists?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    And for people who work hard and want to get on and provide for their families there is only one realistic choice.

    At the moment yes. But very soon Corbyn will turn 70. If the election is not this year, there seems a high chance of a new Labour leader. If (if!) it is someone vaguely sane and competent, that statement will cease to be true and the Tories are in big trouble.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,559

    It seems the fervent remainers have crafted a narrative that Brexit has/will destroy the Conservative party.

    I would argue their view is a parochial one that will not be shared by the average voter PROVIDING the next GE comes after the present impasse is resolved.

    Most people just do not care about the EU anywhere near as much as they care about how a future government will impact them and their families financially.

    And for people who work hard and want to get on and provide for their families there is only one realistic choice.

    Yes and no. Voters may be at ease with the fact of Brexit but that is not to say they will not blame the government for the effects of Brexit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,822

    dixiedean said:

    UKIP councillor from Sri Lanka calls for Remainers to face the death penalty

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-47824367

    Good job poor copy editing isn't a capital offence.
    Incredibly, she : "... represents the International Buddhist Relief Organisation at the United Nations"
    Wonder exactly what that consists of. According to the charity commission they raised £23 000 in 2017.
    Not Oxfam then.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,293

    It seems the fervent remainers have crafted a narrative that Brexit has/will destroy the Conservative party.

    I would argue their view is a parochial one that will not be shared by the average voter PROVIDING the next GE comes after the present impasse is resolved.

    Most people just do not care about the EU anywhere near as much as they care about how a future government will impact them and their families financially.

    And for people who work hard and want to get on and provide for their families there is only one realistic choice.

    The idea that Brexit will destroy the Conservative party might well be wishful thinking on the part of remainers. But you are quite wrong in implying that the post cameron conservative party want to help people 'get on'. Quite the opposite, it seems.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,215

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    You know not what you talk about.

    The split isn't just about the EU.

    There's a strong correlation between the ERG and socially conservative views which the One Nation wing finds anathema to them.

    It is said more than one member of the ERG has privately talked about ending same sex marriage and condemning those hetrosexual couples that have children out of wedlock.
    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778
    All organisations fall apart eventually. If the Conservatives collapse, some other party will represent right wing eurosceptic voters.

    The big difference with the mid 1990's is that the Opposition are as divided and disliked as the government are.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,108
    nielh said:

    It seems the fervent remainers have crafted a narrative that Brexit has/will destroy the Conservative party.

    I would argue their view is a parochial one that will not be shared by the average voter PROVIDING the next GE comes after the present impasse is resolved.

    Most people just do not care about the EU anywhere near as much as they care about how a future government will impact them and their families financially.

    And for people who work hard and want to get on and provide for their families there is only one realistic choice.

    The idea that Brexit will destroy the Conservative party might well be wishful thinking on the part of remainers. But you are quite wrong in implying that the post cameron conservative party want to help people 'get on'. Quite the opposite, it seems.
    Even if the brexit achieved makes them worse off? They will punish those who made it happen
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,775
    RoyalBlue said:

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    Are the people outside the school threatening to take away the freedom to live and work in the EU27?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,108
    I
    RoyalBlue said:

    Foxy said:

    While the destruction of the Tory party is some compensation for Brexit, I wouldn't write them off while my mother still has her card. She has been a member over 60 years, she backed Leadsome over May.

    Lets see how the locals go, and see what the national projected share works out to be, then onto the Euros before writing the obituary.

    It's a fundamental split.

    One wing of the party hates the other wing with such vehemence that is unbridgeable.

    I view Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen, et al with even more contempt than I do for Corbyn, and I think Corbyn will be a disaster for this country.

    I was told by a former MP that if Boris or an ERGer becomes Tory leader that at least 30 Tory MPs resign the Tory Whip.

    On the other side you've got maybe 20 Tory Brexit MPs prepared to VONC their own government, make Corbyn PM, and possibly cancel Brexit because Mrs May will not deliver the type of Brexit they want.
    To call the euroloons a 'wing' is extremely flattering. A lean-too conservatory would be more like it. So far as I can see they are purely a parliamentary party phenomenon and of those half of them have joined the TIG.
    You know not what you talk about.

    The split isn't just about the EU.

    There's a strong correlation between the ERG and socially conservative views which the One Nation wing finds anathema to them.

    It is said more than one member of the ERG has privately talked about ending same sex marriage and condemning those hetrosexual couples that have children out of wedlock.
    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.
    I think JRM has some views on these issues!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183
    If the Conservative party were to collapse I would be joining the queue to tramp the dirt down. It has turned into the single most powerful malign force in British politics. What new beast slouches towards Jerusalem to be born though?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,422
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    To paraphrase Marc Antony "Friends, PBers, Countrymen, I come to bury the Tory Party, not to praise it".

    To paraphrase Maximus Decimus Meridius:
    "Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?" :)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863
    ydoethur said:


    Are Conservative ministers really that desperate to see Liam Fox attempt to negotiate trade treaties ???

    Hasn't his two plus years of failure been enough for them ?

    Some of them are so dense light bends around them.
    Is there really any good argument left for voting Conservative, apart from Jeremy Corbyn: Prime Minister?
    No. But at the moment, that's still good enough.

    That is also however why when he goes, Tory support is likely to drop off a cliff.
    Quite. Ironically, Corbyn is now the main obstacle to the socialist vanguard storming the ramparts of power. Virtually anybody from his wing of the party who could (a) string a sentence together and (b) didn't have his decades of baggage would probably, as Labour leader, romp home against the current Government.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,775

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    Liz Truss wants votable motions at the party conference, so you might find out how many think so.
  • If the Conservative party were to collapse I would be joining the queue to tramp the dirt down. It has turned into the single most powerful malign force in British politics. What new beast slouches towards Jerusalem to be born though?

    Worse than the party reeking of anti-semitism?

    You need to check your moral compass Meeks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778

    RoyalBlue said:

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    Are the people outside the school threatening to take away the freedom to live and work in the EU27?
    My guess would be that's not uppermost in the minds of people who are unsettled by the school protests.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,422

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    The morons in Birmingham are Labour fans, are they not?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183

    If the Conservative party were to collapse I would be joining the queue to tramp the dirt down. It has turned into the single most powerful malign force in British politics. What new beast slouches towards Jerusalem to be born though?

    Worse than the party reeking of anti-semitism?

    You need to check your moral compass Meeks.
    Yes, because it is implementing a policy secured through pandering to xenophobia. It is in power wrecking the country, Labour is not.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

    Seats || Votes

    LAB: 541 || 55.0%
    SNP: 56 || 4.5%
    LDM: 25 || 14.0%
    SF: 10 || 0.9%
    PLC: 4 || 0.7%
    DUP: 4 || 0.4%
    CON: 3 || 14.5%
    IND: 2
    GRN: 1 || 2.0%
    UUP: 1 || 0.4%
    ALL: 1 || 0.4%
    SDLP: 1 || 0.3%
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,215

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    IanB2 said:

    How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

    Seats || Votes

    LAB: 541 || 55.0%
    SNP: 56 || 4.5%
    LDM: 25 || 14.0%
    SF: 10 || 0.9%
    PLC: 4 || 0.7%
    DUP: 4 || 0.4%
    CON: 3 || 14.5%
    IND: 2
    GRN: 1 || 2.0%
    UUP: 1 || 0.4%
    ALL: 1 || 0.4%
    SDLP: 1 || 0.3%

    Which are the three Tory seats ?

  • Yes, because it is implementing a policy secured through pandering to xenophobia. It is in power wrecking the country, Labour is not.

    Brexit has addled your mind to the point that you consider trying to implement the will of 17m+ people is morally repugnant whereas anti-semitism is not.

    Actually makes my skin crawl thinking about it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

    The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

    The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

    Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

    Nasty Party anyone
    I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

    On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.
    Never say never. The Conservatives have taken a sledgehammer to their coalition. The party that once was the natural home of those voters who valued practical management and economic prudence has discarded those voters. They will not return any time soon.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,778
    IanB2 said:

    How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

    Seats || Votes

    LAB: 541 || 55.0%
    SNP: 56 || 4.5%
    LDM: 25 || 14.0%
    SF: 10 || 0.9%
    PLC: 4 || 0.7%
    DUP: 4 || 0.4%
    CON: 3 || 14.5%
    IND: 2
    GRN: 1 || 2.0%
    UUP: 1 || 0.4%
    ALL: 1 || 0.4%
    SDLP: 1 || 0.3%

    It's just as well the franchise is not restricted to 18-24 year olds.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,183


    Yes, because it is implementing a policy secured through pandering to xenophobia. It is in power wrecking the country, Labour is not.

    Brexit has addled your mind to the point that you consider trying to implement the will of 17m+ people is morally repugnant whereas anti-semitism is not.

    Actually makes my skin crawl thinking about it.
    I’m disappointed you didn’t capitalise Will and People. It would be in accordance with the rest of your posting.
This discussion has been closed.