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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliame

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliament seats in the United Kingdom?

This market by Ladbrokes is very intriguing, because as if seems likely, the UK takes part in the European elections there’s going to be quite a few betting opportunities.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815
    I think Helmer's idea will work, in 1989 my dad wrote JOIN THE BLOODY ERM NOW and they did, admittedly it didn't last long.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 566
    I applaud your optimism, but Liberals have already bowed to Soggy Dems before. Ain't going to happen again
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815
    edited April 7
    I think the Greens are a better bet than the LibDems, remainiacs are mostly centre-left and the coalition taint is still there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Is "Change UK" still a thing? The prospect of Labour gaining power seems to have stuffed their recruiting drive...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    edited April 7
    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    If Labour sells out on the people's vote I'd say the LibDems and TIG are well placed.

    Not so sure about UKIP - in the 2015 GE over 6,000 voters turned out for them in Newport West, compared to just over 2,000 this week. That doesn't indicate much resilience IMO. And the confusion with Farage and his Brexit party isn't going to help them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Good morning, everyone.

    Rather sleepy, but I quite like that pun. Mildly surprised you didn't go for D'Hondt EU Want MEPs, though.

    Hmm. I think there's something in the CUK (I preferred them as Tiggers) or Lib Dems. I'll give that a look once I'm suitably caffeinated.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    I have a terrible hangover!! And it’s only going to get worse. Off to Northern Ireland today. Guinness and Bushmills will be involved.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,026
    edited April 7
    Eagles, I think you are forgetting one important point, it really is not in the interests of the governing Conservative party or the Labour party as the main Opposition party for these EU elections to go ahead. An important point that far too many in the 2nd EU Ref campaign have not factored into their political strategy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    King Cole, gloomy here too, to the extent I was wondering if I'd groggily gotten up rather too early (I hadn't).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353

    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
    It's a gloom that will sit upon the nation until our politicians implement Brexit....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    F1: just seen that China qualifying is 7am, and the race shortly thereafter on the Sunday.

    Certainly better than the Aussie time slot, but it'll be nice when a race is on at the normal time.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    edited April 7
    ON thread.. RE most seats.. AS said by Rhett Butler in Gone with the Wind.. Most seats ?

    "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn."
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
    It's a gloom that will sit upon the nation until our politicians implement Brexit....
    Or better still, can the whole shitshow. :smile:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
    It's a gloom that will sit upon the nation until our politicians implement Brexit....
    I don't think I can stand 70 years of fog.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809
    I had a look at this market a few days back. I suspect Labour will win, but it offers little value.

    8/1 on UKIP is a reasonable punt, as they will be the leading Anti-Europe party. The fact that they are a shambolic fractious party of sub EDL thugs hasn't put voters off in the past.

    Brexit party may get Farage a seat, but I cannot see any more. It will be the Nigel Farage Ego party.

    LDs at 25 is tempting, particularly if CHUK dont table a slate. I dont think that they have the infrastructure to do so.

    In the East Midlands we have one of the most Eurosceptic constituencies, with 5 MEP, 2 Kippers, 2 Tories and Labour. The Labour one is the only one with any sort of profile, appearing fairly often on Sunday Politics East Midlands. We LDs are mid selection, with 11 applicants manifestos to select from by STV, electonically and clising on the 15th, but getting one of the 5 seats will be a tricky threshold. There is a similar vote for LDs and Greens in 2014.

    A lot depends on electoral alliances, tacit or otherwise on the Europhile half of the country.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,631
    edited April 7
    PBers of a certain vintage will recall my site agony column "Dear Aunty Jack" where I dispensed invaluable wisdom to the masses. So successful, you will recall, that it became a worldwide syndicated hit under different guises.

    I recall vividly two early heart rending stories of troubled PBers :

    "Dear Aunty Jack, I'm a middle aged sex maniac, former drug addict and lost soul. Any solution? - Sean of Primrose Hill"

    Aunty Jack - "Dear Sean write a best selling book or three, get married, knock out a sprog or two and enjoy regular incoherent rants on the interweb thingy"

    "Dear Aunty Jack, my 512 pair sandal collection is getting out of hand, almost matched by my binge spending on toupees. Help !! - Mike of Bedford"

    Aunty Jack - "Dear Mike - Relax, spend the money on long shot political bets and send the wigs to Michael Fabricant or Donald Trump for recycling."
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Farage copying Cameron's A-List? :p
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    reality TV.. The reality is that they are neither in reality or TV stars..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822

    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
    It wasn't the letters that were funny but the straight laced replies which had me laughing out loud. Pre Brexit I might have thought the letters were a spoof. Now after becoming better aquainted with Brexit Britain I'm not at all surprised
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    If he's got the Kardashians...And I thought politics couldn't get worse.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    JackW said:

    Dear Sean write a best selling book or three, get married, knock out a sprog or two and enjoy regular incoherent rants on the interweb thingy

    Wait, what? I know he's got a daughter already but had his wife just had good news? If so I missed it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    I wonder whether the recent PV march, Revoke petition and Led By Donkeys movements will exert any influence. There is clearly something there but of course they are not coordinated behind any political party. Could they promote voting for Remainer parties?

    I appreciate it's probably wishful Remainer thinking on my part.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
    It wasn't the letters that were funny but the straight laced replies which had me laughing out loud. Pre Brexit I might have thought the letters were a spoof. Now after becoming better aquainted with Brexit Britain I'm not at all surprised
    A lot of them weren't British though, TBF!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    JackW said:

    PBers of a certain vintage will recall my site agony column "Dear Aunty Jack" where I dispensed invaluable wisdom to the masses. So successful, you will recall, that it became a worldwide syndicated hit under different guises.

    I recall vividly two early heart rending stories of troubled PBers :

    "Dear Aunty Jack, I'm a middle aged sex maniac, former drug addict and lost soul. Any solution? - Sean of Primrose Hill"

    Aunty Jack - "Dear Sean write a best selling book or three, get married, knock out a sprog or two and enjoy regular incoherent rants on the interweb thingy"

    "Dear Aunty Jack, my 512 pair sandal collection is getting out of hand, almost matched by my binge spending on toupees. Help !! - Mike of Bedford"

    Aunty Jack - "Dear Mike - Relax, spend the money on long shot political bets and send the wigs to Michael Fabricant or Donald Trump for recycling."

    Very good!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    fitalass said:

    Eagles, I think you are forgetting one important point, it really is not in the interests of the governing Conservative party or the Labour party as the main Opposition party for these EU elections to go ahead. An important point that far too many in the 2nd EU Ref campaign have not factored into their political strategy.

    It's an interesting question. Assuming the Tories and Labour have reached some sort of agreement and a second referendum isn't part of it, is there time for us to leave by 22 May?

    The European elections do seem to have a huge symbolic significance for Leavers, and I am presuming May will do her utmost to get out before then if she can. Though like much of Brexit, it doesn't really make sense that people would be so grievously offended if we take part in a kind of mock election while we are in the process of dotting the is and crossing the ts in the Brexit legislation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809
    edited April 7
    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    *angrier/more angry
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Meanwhile, in calming down the Middle East news...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47840033

    Not sure West Bank settlement annexation will do the trick.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,081
    Foxy said:

    I had a look at this market a few days back. I suspect Labour will win, but it offers little value.

    8/1 on UKIP is a reasonable punt, as they will be the leading Anti-Europe party. The fact that they are a shambolic fractious party of sub EDL thugs hasn't put voters off in the past.

    Brexit party may get Farage a seat, but I cannot see any more. It will be the Nigel Farage Ego party.

    LDs at 25 is tempting, particularly if CHUK dont table a slate. I dont think that they have the infrastructure to do so.

    In the East Midlands we have one of the most Eurosceptic constituencies, with 5 MEP, 2 Kippers, 2 Tories and Labour. The Labour one is the only one with any sort of profile, appearing fairly often on Sunday Politics East Midlands. We LDs are mid selection, with 11 applicants manifestos to select from by STV, electonically and clising on the 15th, but getting one of the 5 seats will be a tricky threshold. There is a similar vote for LDs and Greens in 2014.

    A lot depends on electoral alliances, tacit or otherwise on the Europhile half of the country.

    I agree with your last sentence.

    In the meantime I've had a bet at a boosted 13/1 on Change UK and a punt on the LDs at 25/1 including a free £5 bet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,180
    edited April 7
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Dear Sean write a best selling book or three, get married, knock out a sprog or two and enjoy regular incoherent rants on the interweb thingy

    Wait, what? I know he's got a daughter already but had his wife just had good news? If so I missed it.
    ISTR he has two kids, born about the same time; one is in the UK, the other in Oz.

    (Might be wrong, if so, apols)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Can someone remind me of the format of the EU elections?

    I am somewhat embarrassed to admit I have never paid much attention before - just voted for whichever party I felt most supportive of at each election. And wikipedia doesn't seem to have much on it. Thanks
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    edited April 7
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of is a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    *angrier/more angry
    You've been subliminally influenced by the Harry's razors 'sharperer' adverts all over PB. :wink:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    edited April 7

    Meanwhile, in calming down the Middle East news...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47840033

    Not sure West Bank settlement annexation will do the trick.

    No, don't pun, it's too serious, it isn't appropriate to, aaargh...

    He wants to add Samaria to Israel because the area they have isn't big enough.

    Incidentally even the curator of Yad Vashem refers to Netanyahu as 'that racist bastard.'
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    It all depends on how many parties with the same objective have an electoral pact.

    It reminds me of the Remainers wanting another referendum with a single Remain option versus only one of the Leave options (May's EU deal or no deal), thus splitting the Leave vote.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 315
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    That will make both sides of the argument pretty enthused as the genius of the current situation is that both feel wronged. Whether or not you agree that such emotion is valid is another matter.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
    I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwide
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
    I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwide
    I think Chris was referring to this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towie,_Aberdeenshire
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
    I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwide
    I think that's the flattest any of my attempted jokes has ever fallen.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
    I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwide
    I think Chris was referring to this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towie,_Aberdeenshire
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
    I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwide
    I think that's the flattest any of my attempted jokes has ever fallen.
    Sorry, I didn’t get it! 🙌🏻
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    CD13 said:

    It all depends on how many parties with the same objective have an electoral pact.

    It reminds me of the Remainers wanting another referendum with a single Remain option versus only one of the Leave options (May's EU deal or no deal), thus splitting the Leave vote.

    Would electoral pacts make much difference for the Euro elections - aren't they on some form of PV?

    (I appreciate I have probably made a pineapple-on-pizza level PB faux pas there, but hey wth.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    Those best PM figures are really something else. Do you think that we are just ever so slightly underwhelmed by the available choice?

    How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    CD13 said:

    It all depends on how many parties with the same objective have an electoral pact.

    It reminds me of the Remainers wanting another referendum with a single Remain option versus only one of the Leave options (May's EU deal or no deal), thus splitting the Leave vote.

    Surely having each of the Leave options listed would split the Leave vote?!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    CD13 said:

    It all depends on how many parties with the same objective have an electoral pact.

    It reminds me of the Remainers wanting another referendum with a single Remain option versus only one of the Leave options (May's EU deal or no deal), thus splitting the Leave vote.

    Would electoral pacts make much difference for the Euro elections - aren't they on some form of PV?

    (I appreciate I have probably made a pineapple-on-pizza level PB faux pas there, but hey wth.)
    I thought it was basically whoever was bezzie mates with some top party nob got to the top of the list and was elected. Usually this provides a Parliament full of third rate time servers who are barely capable of coherent speech and have the spine of a jellyfish when it comes to holding said Masters to account.

    However, FPTP seems to have had much the same effect on our lot.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Who else has voted to Leave?!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    If we do hold the Euros, I hope PV organise another march ahead of them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Pointer, big regions that elect something like half a dozen MEPs each.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353

    Roger said:

    This won't help you decide where to put your X but it's very funny

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3684475/Are-funniest-agony-aunt-letters-ever.html

    I wouldn't really describe it as 'very funny' Roger; the letters are rather sad. However one or two of them did brighten a rather gloomy morning.

    Has Spring sunshine been abandoned, along with any semblance of common sense in politics?
    It's a gloom that will sit upon the nation until our politicians implement Brexit....
    Or better still, can the whole shitshow. :smile:
    Tell you what, we'll have Brexit, whilst you sell cans of Whole Brexit Shitshow to Remainers wanting perpetual gloom souvenirs. Everyone happy....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    It's all gone a bit quiet on the Con-Lab Brexit talks, which probably means they are making some progress. MVx on Tuesday anyone?

    (x = a positive integer - I've lost count.)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    CD13 said:

    It all depends on how many parties with the same objective have an electoral pact.

    It reminds me of the Remainers wanting another referendum with a single Remain option versus only one of the Leave options (May's EU deal or no deal), thus splitting the Leave vote.

    Would electoral pacts make much difference for the Euro elections - aren't they on some form of PV?

    (I appreciate I have probably made a pineapple-on-pizza level PB faux pas there, but hey wth.)
    It's a list system, and - subject to correction by an expert - I think the number of MEPs in each constituency is small enough that you still need your list to represent a reasonably large block.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 242
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    That twat who owns the pubs for people who wear tracksuits instead of normal clothes, Beefy Botham, Galloway, Jade Goody's wight, archer101, etc.

    The list writes itself.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,268
    Chris said:

    fitalass said:

    Eagles, I think you are forgetting one important point, it really is not in the interests of the governing Conservative party or the Labour party as the main Opposition party for these EU elections to go ahead. An important point that far too many in the 2nd EU Ref campaign have not factored into their political strategy.

    It's an interesting question. Assuming the Tories and Labour have reached some sort of agreement and a second referendum isn't part of it, is there time for us to leave by 22 May?

    The European elections do seem to have a huge symbolic significance for Leavers, and I am presuming May will do her utmost to get out before then if she can. Though like much of Brexit, it doesn't really make sense that people would be so grievously offended if we take part in a kind of mock election while we are in the process of dotting the is and crossing the ts in the Brexit legislation.
    Yes, I'm puzzled by this because participation in the EU elections, which will most likely provoke a fresh round of resignations, is now pretty much inevitable. I had thought the plan was to concede to Corbyn on the CU, and get it all done by May 22, but it appears that TMay's offer to Corbyn was that he whips his MPs into supporting her thrice-rejected deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Mr. Pointer, big regions that elect something like half a dozen MEPs each.

    Thanks. So if there are 6 MEPs for the region each party puts forward 6 candidates and do voters all get 6 votes?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Mr. Pointer, big regions that elect something like half a dozen MEPs each.

    Yes - between 3 and 10, median 6.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
    Damn how will us sceptics counter millions of europhiles when there are so few of us?!!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
    What is it about being in the EU that you value?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353

    It's all gone a bit quiet on the Con-Lab Brexit talks, which probably means they are making some progress. MVx on Tuesday anyone?

    (x = a positive integer - I've lost count.)

    I think May is too busy to talk to Labour, spending her time applying red lines to Hammond's arse with a bull-whip.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Who else has voted to Leave?!
    No one! and after the farce of Brexit, even the Italian and French populists are quietly abandoning leaving.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
    Damn how will us sceptics counter millions of europhiles when there are so few of us?!!
    You had your chance and the ERG screwed it up for you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Chris said:

    fitalass said:

    Eagles, I think you are forgetting one important point, it really is not in the interests of the governing Conservative party or the Labour party as the main Opposition party for these EU elections to go ahead. An important point that far too many in the 2nd EU Ref campaign have not factored into their political strategy.

    It's an interesting question. Assuming the Tories and Labour have reached some sort of agreement and a second referendum isn't part of it, is there time for us to leave by 22 May?

    The European elections do seem to have a huge symbolic significance for Leavers, and I am presuming May will do her utmost to get out before then if she can. Though like much of Brexit, it doesn't really make sense that people would be so grievously offended if we take part in a kind of mock election while we are in the process of dotting the is and crossing the ts in the Brexit legislation.
    Yes, I'm puzzled by this because participation in the EU elections, which will most likely provoke a fresh round of resignations, is now pretty much inevitable. I had thought the plan was to concede to Corbyn on the CU, and get it all done by May 22, but it appears that TMay's offer to Corbyn was that he whips his MPs into supporting her thrice-rejected deal.
    I think the idea is that would be in return for concessions on the non-binding political declaration. One of the newspaper headlines said there was going to be a "lock" to make them binding, but I think it must be a lock of hair from a unicorn's mane.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    That twat who owns the pubs for people who wear tracksuits instead of normal clothes
    The Hiltons are backing him?!!!
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
    Damn how will us sceptics counter millions of europhiles when there are so few of us?!!
    You had your chance and the ERG screwed it up for you.
    Lots of Remainers seem to think we’ll get another chance, or are you just assuming victory in that case?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809

    Mr. Pointer, big regions that elect something like half a dozen MEPs each.

    Thanks. So if there are 6 MEPs for the region each party puts forward 6 candidates and do voters all get 6 votes?
    No the party chooses list order, and the voter chooses the party.

    So splitting the vote is very possible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Pointer, I have a vague memory of three votes, but it does say on the ballot paper.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    That will make both sides of the argument pretty enthused as the genius of the current situation is that both feel wronged. Whether or not you agree that such emotion is valid is another matter.
    The fact that so many people marched/signed the petition should mean a good showing for Brexit denying parties.

    Interesting betting heat.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 943
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Who else has voted to Leave?!
    No one! and after the farce of Brexit, even the Italian and French populists are quietly abandoning leaving.

    Good point . The UK has done wonders for showing other EU countries what to expect if you vote to leave . Three years of chaos and division . Hardly a great selling point .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    That will make both sides of the argument pretty enthused as the genius of the current situation is that both feel wronged. Whether or not you agree that such emotion is valid is another matter.
    The fact that so many people marched/signed the petition should mean a good showing for Brexit denying parties.

    Interesting betting heat.
    For me the pro EU parties are pretty much nailed on for success if there are EU Parliament elections. Too many leavers will just not take part. I won't for one.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. 67, that rather backs up the Leave line that the EU has too much influence and we've integrated too much...

    Hmm. On an unrelated note, I'm wondering if the multiple votes was for another electoral system. Hmm.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Foxy said:

    Mr. Pointer, big regions that elect something like half a dozen MEPs each.

    Thanks. So if there are 6 MEPs for the region each party puts forward 6 candidates and do voters all get 6 votes?
    No the party chooses list order, and the voter chooses the party.

    So splitting the vote is very possible.
    Got it thanks. This helped me too...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    nico67 said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Who else has voted to Leave?!
    No one! and after the farce of Brexit, even the Italian and French populists are quietly abandoning leaving.

    Good point . The UK has done wonders for showing other EU countries what to expect if you vote to leave . Three years of chaos and division . Hardly a great selling point .
    I am not sure that the complete incompetence that we have shown over Brexit for the last 2.5 years was entirely mandatory. Other options were available.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Mr. Pointer, I have a vague memory of three votes, but it does say on the ballot paper.

    Apparently not - just one vote - see Foxy's post.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    Foxy said:

    Mr. Pointer, big regions that elect something like half a dozen MEPs each.

    Thanks. So if there are 6 MEPs for the region each party puts forward 6 candidates and do voters all get 6 votes?
    No the party chooses list order, and the voter chooses the party.

    So splitting the vote is very possible.
    I think essentially if there are N MEPs in your region you need roughly 1/N of the vote for representation. So you don't want to drop below 33% in the North East or 10% in the South East.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809
    Those unfamiliar with TOWIE, shouldn't be in doubt of its cultural influence. Fake tan, hair extensions and eyebrow pencil sales are through the roof. Even the POTUS has the bug.

    Even toddlers get the makeover:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/8780096/girl-brother-towie-makeover-tan-eyebrows/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Pointer, yeah, I was beginning to doubt that part myself (as mentioned above), though I was right about the general regions and multiple elected chaps.

    In my defence, I'm really very sleepy. Slept terribly. Possible due to a curse.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    edited April 7
    Mr Pointer,

    "Surely having each of the Leave options listed would split the Leave vote?!"

    Exactly. As would including only one of the Remain options. How about a second referendum with the two options as Leave versus a fully federal EU country with its own army and government. "No," you'll shout. "You're only including one of the remain options."

    The only honest second referendum option is Leave versus Remain (We're giving you a second chance, you thick bastards). What's a people's vote? As opposed to the first being restricted to animals?

    "But we're changed our minds after nearly three years." OK, we vote every three years on whether to leave or stay? Even the EU would refuse to have that.

    "But we're really keen on the EU." So democracy is now who shouts loudest not who has the numbers.

    "But you cheated" How? "Because you won."

    It's difficult to argue with a five-year-old, so it's best we shouldn't even try.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
    Damn how will us sceptics counter millions of europhiles when there are so few of us?!!
    You had your chance and the ERG screwed it up for you.
    Lots of Remainers seem to think we’ll get another chance, or are you just assuming victory in that case?
    Tbh my comment was tongue-in-cheek.

    Personally, I think in a 2nd Ref - May's Deal versus Remain - May's Deal will win. Then both we Remainers and the ERG hard-nuts will have to stfu.

    You won't believe me but I would be content with that outcome.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    CD13 said:

    Mr Pointer,

    "Surely having each of the Leave options listed would split the Leave vote?!"

    Exactly. As would including only one of the Remain options. How about a second referendum with the two options as Leave versus a fully federal EU country with its own army and government. "No," you'll shout. "You're only including one of the remain options."

    The only honest second referendum option is Leave versus Remain (We're giving you a second chance, you thick bastards). What's a people's vote? As opposed to the first being restricted to animals?

    "But we're changed our minds after nearly three years." OK, we vote every three years on whether to leave or stay? Even the EU would refuse to have that.

    "But we're really keen on the EU." So democracy is now who shouts loudest not who has the numbers.

    "But you cheated" How? "Because you won."

    It's difficult to argue with a five-year-old, so it's best we shouldn't even try.


    There is only one Remain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Good tip. I'm on Change UK to come top, with Labour as cover.

    I expect the Leave vote to split many ways and/or abstain.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,180
    Foxy said:

    Those unfamiliar with TOWIE, shouldn't be in doubt of its cultural influence. Fake tan, hair extensions and eyebrow pencil sales are through the roof. Even the POTUS has the bug.

    Even toddlers get the makeover:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/8780096/girl-brother-towie-makeover-tan-eyebrows/

    Many moons back, the TV and radio presenter Richard Bacon gave an anecdote about a Towie actress. They were at an awards ceremony, and they start chatting. When she asked what he did, he replied that he was a radio presenter (R5Live at the time). She responded "Oh well, I daresay you'll break into television sometime.")
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    Betting on the European elections seems unusually risky to me, because if May and Corbyn agree to fast-track Brexit, it may be essentially decided by election day and the MEPs won't sit for long if at all. In those circumstances I should think turnout would be tiny, and the results extremely unpredictable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Good tip. I'm on Change UK to come top, with Labour as cover.

    I expect the Leave vote to split many ways and/or abstain.

    Interesting possibility. What, if anything, do you think such an outcome would mean for the continued Brexit process?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Pretty much agree with the header. At a time where anger/disappointment with the main two parties is at an all time high it doesn’t seem they should be a combined 75% chance in an election which is primed for a protest vote.

    I’d have thought Leave voters were more angrier at ‘betrayal’ then Remainers. The fact these elections are being held is proof we haven’t left, which obviously Remainers should be pleased about. The problem is that UKIP/Brexit party will take votes off each other.

    A tricky one, I can see the votes being split quite evenly between 4-5 parties.

    I think there will be a fairly perfunctory campaign for the Euros, with the two main parties hoist by their Brexit petards. Most fleshworld activists will be more interested in the Locals, which are pretty widespread this year.

    The #peoplesvote movement are very active and enthusiastic, and have built a vast database of electronic contacts, and clearly are going to be the most motivated to vote, with the LDs and Greens most likely benificiaries, topping the poll is unlikely.
    The fact that Euro Elections are even taking place is kicking sand in the face of Leave voters whilst soothing the nerves of Remain. I guess Remain parties may be enthused to put in a good showing to prove the EUs popularity, but it’s usually easier to motivate people who feel wronged.
    The relative scale of the #peoplesvote and #MarchToLeave demonstrations shows where the enthusiasm and organisation is.

    Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of Brexit has been to create a mass movement of public protest of fervent flag waving Europhiles. I think no other European country has produced such an array of flag bedecked demonstrations.
    Nothing quite like having something taken away from you for making you realise how much you value it. The last few years have turned me into an enthusiastic europhile. There are millions of us, and we will keep the dream of our rightful place in Europe alive.
    What is it about being in the EU that you value?
    Weird, isn't it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    DavidL said:

    Those best PM figures are really something else. Do you think that we are just ever so slightly underwhelmed by the available choice?

    How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.

    Change UK's big idea is to build a new horseshoe parliament away from Westminster, adopt PR, and return to the politics of c.2005 nationwide.

    They represent a step back, not forward.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908

    Foxy said:

    Those unfamiliar with TOWIE, shouldn't be in doubt of its cultural influence. Fake tan, hair extensions and eyebrow pencil sales are through the roof. Even the POTUS has the bug.

    Even toddlers get the makeover:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/8780096/girl-brother-towie-makeover-tan-eyebrows/

    Many moons back, the TV and radio presenter Richard Bacon gave an anecdote about a Towie actress. They were at an awards ceremony, and they start chatting. When she asked what he did, he replied that he was a radio presenter (R5Live at the time). She responded "Oh well, I daresay you'll break into television sometime.")
    I still remember Tony Livesey on R5 asking some Youtubers who had more followers than there are watchers of the BBC in the average week whether they were hoping to break into TV. They were somewhat bewildered.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    There's only one real way to heal the divisions and we all know it.

    It's to Brexit fully; if it succeeds, all well and good. If it fails we re-apply with our tail between our legs. A close trading relationship remains an option. If we revoke or have a narrow win for Remain in a referendum where many will boycott, nothing will ever be resolved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Not sure Leavers are not motivated, the 'Leave means Leave' rally in Whitehall and Westminster last Friday had thousands there even if probably not as many as 'the People's Vote' March the previous Saturday
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908

    DavidL said:

    Those best PM figures are really something else. Do you think that we are just ever so slightly underwhelmed by the available choice?

    How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.

    Change UK's big idea is to build a new horseshoe parliament away from Westminster, adopt PR, and return to the politics of c.2005 nationwide.

    They represent a step back, not forward.
    I don't think it really matters what their ideas are. Any presence that they have in the next Parliament will be entirely token. I actually expect it to be nil.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Those best PM figures are really something else. Do you think that we are just ever so slightly underwhelmed by the available choice?

    How much longer can we go on like this? Change UK looks like a dead end to me. They have lost their opportunity by taking so long to become a party, failing to invite and build a mass membership, not fighting Newport and not looking particularly ready to fight either the Euros if they come or the locals either. But with 50% of the population choosing none of the above a break in the mold is surely coming.

    Change UK's big idea is to build a new horseshoe parliament away from Westminster, adopt PR, and return to the politics of c.2005 nationwide.

    They represent a step back, not forward.
    I don't think it really matters what their ideas are. Any presence that they have in the next Parliament will be entirely token. I actually expect it to be nil.
    My point is they're not coming up with any sort of change prospectus that resonates, other than to Stop Brexit.

    There's certainly a (small) gap for a new centre party, drawing support heavily from the professional middle classes, but that would require it to do some thinking.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    “Nigel Farage returns: 'Our Brexit Party candidates will be household names from all walks of life'“

    Even by his low standards, that's an absurd statement. You either have household names OR people from all walks of life. Or has he found supermarket shelf stackers that are household names?
    Maybe some of them are reality TV stars?
    TOWIE ‘celeb’ Micky Norcross is backing them, so maybe that’s one?
    Can I take it the person you speak of it a household name? Towie is quite a small place, and I can't believe that even its celebrities will be very well known outside Aberdeenshire.
    I live nearby and have never watched it, but judging by the coach loads of scousers/northerners that descend on Brentwood High St each weekend nowadays, I’d guess it’s celebrities are known nationwide
    At one time in my life I had to spend some of my working days in Brentwood and the only time I would ever go there voluntarily is at weekends. Getting to my place of work on a weekday was a nightmare, especially in the morning, due to the hordes of people taking children to one or other of the fancied schools there.
This discussion has been closed.