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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What does Newport West tell us?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What does Newport West tell us?

Newport West was the 28th by-election to be held in Wales since the 1950 General Election. Of those 28, twenty have been defended by Labour with only one loss (Carmarthen in 1966) so therefore a Labour hold was pretty much a given. However, that doesn’t mask the fact that Labour should be worried.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,338
    First like Labour
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,368
    edited April 7
    Second like the Tories this time though, I suspect, probably not the next.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,304
    Wasn’t Copeland a Labour failed defence?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,440
    edited April 7
    3rd like the BREXIT party
  • A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.

    Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.

    Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,380
    Entering into long drawn out negotiations with Labour without actually coming to agreement is the best thing Theresa May can do. This means:

    - She doesn't trigger her revolting party by agreeing customs unions, second referendums. Labour Party lock etc.

    - The European Union can pretend a consensus is being worked on so they can extend indefinitely.

    - The rest of us can be grateful that the evil hour is delayed for a few weeks, we are still in the EU and, politics aside, the country still functions more or less normally for the time being.

    The one fly in the ointment is the Euro elections. Otherwise we could note the premature blue passports and forget about Brexit for a while - or forever.

    (PTC)
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,514
    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Mortimer said:

    Wasn’t Copeland a Labour failed defence?

    Not in Wales.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    edited April 7

    A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.

    Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.

    Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.

    I still don't believe it. I think FF43 has a good picture of things. But we'll see.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 1,760
    edited April 7
    Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    Yes would be ironic if after all the Scottish whinging over Brexit it was their MPs votes along with most Labour and LD and TIG MPs that cancelled Brexit though it could inflame English nationalism

    lol, you are kind of mixed up on who does the whinging. Would be a great laugh if they did and gave the little Englanders a real poke in the eye, some poetic justice.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515
    felix said:

    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.

    Labour did come very close in the July 1985 by election on same boundaries.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    There's a family legend that on of my ancestors was agent for the Liberals in Radnorshire. Not sure, at all, how true it is and the records seem to be lost.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908

    There's a family legend that on of my ancestors was agent for the Liberals in Radnorshire. Not sure, at all, how true it is and the records seem to be lost.

    There's a family legend in my family that I once supported Theresa May. Thankfully all records of any such event have been lost.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,167
    edited April 7

    Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.

    I think Paul Flynn also had a big personal vote so that could explain away some of the fall as well. Paradoxically, given the mess the Tory Government and party is in you would think Labour would be gaining 13% not losing it! To be honest the fact Labour hung onto the seat makes it pretty much a non event. I agree with the thread header that the potential by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is far more interesting and far more likely to cause an upset in terms of LD win!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,846
    She sounds so sincere as well.

    Let me explain why I am about to agree implementing Corbyn's policy on Brexit.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,700

    Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.

    I think Paul Flynn also had a big personal vote so that could explain away some of the fall as well. Paradoxically, given the mess the Tory Government and party is in you would think Labour would be gaining 13% not losing it! To be honest the fact Labour hung onto the seat makes it pretty much a non event. I agree with the thread header that the potential by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is far more interesting and far more likely to cause an upset in terms of LD win!
    On the assumption that there were a by-election I’d be genuinely interested in learning about the subjects that the LDs would campaign on. The impression one gets is that they have, at a national level, become a single-interest pressure group.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    After two quiet weeks, quite a list of councillor defections this week:

    Aylesbury Vale: Con to Ind Con
    Bassetlaw: Con suspended to Ind
    Charnwood: Con to Ind
    Chichester: Con to LibDem (resigned to by-election)
    Fenland: Five Cons to Ind
    Hartlepool: Two Lab to Ind
    Hertsmere: Con to Ind
    Lancaster: Con to Ind
    Stratford-on-Avon: Lab to Ind
    W Oxfordshire: Lab to Ind
    Woking: Con to LibDem
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    The UKIP revival is overstated. In 2015 over 6,000 people turned out for UKIP in this seat of which barely a third could be bothered to turn out on Thursday.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,116
    When are Theresa and Jezza going to do their joint press conference in the Downing Street rose garden à la Dave and Nick in 2010?
    brendan16 said:

    She sounds so sincere as well.

    Let me explain why I am about to agree implementing Corbyn's policy on Brexit.
    When are Theresa and Jezza going to do their joint press conference in the Downing Street rose garden à la Dave and Nick in 2010? Jezza should say 'This is what happens when grown-up politicians put their differences aside and embrace cooperation for the higher good' as Theresa gazes lovingly into his eyes while stroking his beard.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,304
    FF43 said:

    Entering into long drawn out negotiations with Labour without actually coming to agreement is the best thing Theresa May can do. This means:

    - She doesn't trigger her revolting party by agreeing customs unions, second referendums. Labour Party lock etc.

    - The European Union can pretend a consensus is being worked on so they can extend indefinitely.

    - The rest of us can be grateful that the evil hour is delayed for a few weeks, we are still in the EU and, politics aside, the country still functions more or less normally for the time being.

    The one fly in the ointment is the Euro elections. Otherwise we could note the premature blue passports and forget about Brexit for a while - or forever.

    (PTC)

    Tory candidates in local elections wish to be remembered to you...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    I'm not keen on this recasting of Rowley Birkin QC.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,167
    edited April 7
    matt said:

    Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.

    I think Paul Flynn also had a big personal vote so that could explain away some of the fall as well. Paradoxically, given the mess the Tory Government and party is in you would think Labour would be gaining 13% not losing it! To be honest the fact Labour hung onto the seat makes it pretty much a non event. I agree with the thread header that the potential by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is far more interesting and far more likely to cause an upset in terms of LD win!
    On the assumption that there were a by-election I’d be genuinely interested in learning about the subjects that the LDs would campaign on. The impression one gets is that they have, at a national level, become a single-interest pressure group.
    If I were the LD I would campaign on sending a protest vote at the way Government and Opposition are failing the country. It does not have to be specific unless something occurs, often people will vote against stuff, the recent increase in pension contributions may be one such issue as it lowers disposable income unless an individual opts out.

    I do think given the geographical spread of the seat it might be difficult for the LD to contact enough people to persuade them to protest against the Government & Opposition. The LD do have a good base of support in Brecon and Radnorshire, it is hard to know how much support has evaporated away and will never be tapped again given the Coalition Government. I am not a LD supporter and so am unaware at how their party infrastructure and volunteer numbers have been affected in Wales in the last 9 years!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    Always said Theresa was awesome, really appreciate she's putting the country before party.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341

    Always said Theresa was awesome, really appreciate she's putting the country before party.

    By making a person the tories called a national security risk look like a serious statesman?

    riiiiight
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341
    DavidL said:

    There's a family legend that on of my ancestors was agent for the Liberals in Radnorshire. Not sure, at all, how true it is and the records seem to be lost.

    There's a family legend in my family that I once supported Theresa May. Thankfully all records of any such event have been lost.
    Don't worry - no one could believe that
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012

    A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.

    Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.

    Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.

    It would be better in a sense if Jeremy gets into number 10 through those sort of votes rather than those of southern poncy types. Or would it? And in what sense exactly?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.

    Labour did come very close in the July 1985 by election on same boundaries.
    1985? you might as well say 1973
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886

    I'm not keen on this recasting of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I did not laugh
    I did not laugh
    I did not laugh

    Pause

    I laughed... :)
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,700
    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.

    Labour did come very close in the July 1985 by election on same boundaries.
    1985? you might as well say 1973
    Amused by the mail you responding to. 1985 was 34 years ago. I wonder if people think “1989s -Thatcher- recent” and forget that’s the same gap gives you, for example,the end of WW2 to 1979. Worlds apart.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.

    Labour did come very close in the July 1985 by election on same boundaries.
    1985? you might as well say 1973
    Within living memory the Tories held Orkney and Shetland.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,440
    brendan16 said:

    She sounds so sincere as well.

    Let me explain why I am about to agree implementing Corbyn's policy on Brexit.
    Just needed #CorbynsCustomsUnion subtitles
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    matt said:

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.

    Labour did come very close in the July 1985 by election on same boundaries.
    1985? you might as well say 1973
    Amused by the mail you responding to. 1985 was 34 years ago. I wonder if people think “1989s -Thatcher- recent” and forget that’s the same gap gives you, for example,the end of WW2 to 1979. Worlds apart.
    Or indeed, the period of time (give or take six months) between the start of the First World War and the end of the Second World War.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005
    I have had one and only one policy for 2 years .
    So I'll borrow one off the opposition .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    This appeared on my recommended list. Thought PB might like it too:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,116

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    Why so? Granted it's not ideal for the Brexit romantics as it scuppers their dreams of buccaneering international trade deals, but all those notions now seem something of a luxury. It's now all about face saving (as far as possible) and making the best of a bad job.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 508
    Doesn't exactly say anything new, does she?
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,700
    ydoethur said:

    That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'

    Is that about the LDs? I thought The Taxman is a supporter. Was wrong it appears. Although positive policies didn’t leap out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'

    Is that about the LDs? I thought The Taxman is a supporter. Was wrong it appears. Although positive policies didn’t leap out.
    I was referring to the thread header as an answer to the question!
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,700
    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'

    Is that about the LDs? I thought The Taxman is a supporter. Was wrong it appears. Although positive policies didn’t leap out.
    I was referring to the thread header as an answer to the question!
    The answer to the header is “beware of extrapolation from small datasets”.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'

    Is that about the LDs? I thought The Taxman is a supporter. Was wrong it appears. Although positive policies didn’t leap out.
    I was referring to the thread header as an answer to the question!
    The answer to the header is “beware of extrapolation from small datasets”.
    My answer's still shorter.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.

    Labour did come very close in the July 1985 by election on same boundaries.
    1985? you might as well say 1973
    Within living memory the Tories held Orkney and Shetland.
    Remember, just about, the news of Grimond gaining it. IIRC took for ever for the result to come through.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Dawning, voting to leave the EU being interpreted as asking the EU to dictate our trade policy, contrary to both sides in the campaign, is ridiculous.

    It also gives them power to harm our economy as they'll be determining our trade policy without any influence whatsoever.

    There comes a point where compromise means compromising on the result the voters decided, and the customs union is that point. At least those advocating we remain are more honest and less wretched than those who want us to leave in name only.

    I've said all along, include months before the vote, that the customs union was the only 'red line' I had. It's a demented approach.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,404
    kinabalu said:

    A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.

    Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.

    Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.

    It would be better in a sense if Jeremy gets into number 10 through those sort of votes rather than those of southern poncy types. Or would it? And in what sense exactly?
    As a R4 programme explained the Remain/Leave cultural divide isn't the Right/Left cultural divide. By and large, it's the socially liberal and well-educated, e.g. Oxford or Cheltenham vs. the socially-conservative and less-educated, e.g. Plymouth or Portsmouth.

    How about the better-off investigating how the other half live and improving the lives of people instead of pontificating on how 'no-one votes to make themselves poorer'? People vote very strangely if they think they have nothing to lose. Once this is understood, Corbyn can stop talking bollocks about 'a good Brexit'.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,167
    edited April 7
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'

    Is that about the LDs? I thought The Taxman is a supporter. Was wrong it appears. Although positive policies didn’t leap out.
    No, afraid I am not a LD! I once gave them a second preference for the Police Commissioner job in the PCC elections a few years ago. I did support Remain in the EU referendum but voted Tory in the last GE despite Brexit because of the threat of Corbyn.

    My comment on the Lib Dem in Brecon and Radnorshire simply reflects the historic strength of the party in that seat. As they say in Financial Services past achievement might not reflect future performance! If there are European elections I think I will vote for 'Change' as I feel they reflect my views on Europe.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,417

    I'm not keen on this recasting of Rowley Birkin QC.
    "Me, the seventy fifth prime minister of the united kingdom, in a customs union, with the european union, with my reputation? Mmm... hard brexit it is..."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126

    Mr. Dawning, voting to leave the EU being interpreted as asking the EU to dictate our trade policy, contrary to both sides in the campaign, is ridiculous.

    It also gives them power to harm our economy as they'll be determining our trade policy without any influence whatsoever.

    There comes a point where compromise means compromising on the result the voters decided, and the customs union is that point. At least those advocating we remain are more honest and less wretched than those who want us to leave in name only.

    I've said all along, include months before the vote, that the customs union was the only 'red line' I had. It's a demented approach.

    In your opinion.

    The voters were also assured No Deal wouldn't happen.

    There's a reason Gove told the cabinet he did not campaign for a No Deal Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    Judging by the below the line comments of May's tweet, I'd say the deal as it is looking is very fair to both leavers and remainers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Eagles, obviously that's my opinion. You could add that to every post.

    Half-in, half-out, prolongs and deepens the political divide whilst failing to respect the democratic result of the referendum or satisfy those who genuinely believe we must remain in.

    It's a pathetic splitting the difference compromise, trying to stand in the middle of chasm instead of the land either side.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 592

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,167
    I still don't think Labour and the Tories will actually agree anything! They are just going through the motions IMO. Staying in the EU is preferable to some Tories who are Brexit through and through when considering a CU and the rest of Labour's objectives.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886

    As a R4 programme explained the Remain/Leave cultural divide isn't the Right/Left cultural divide. By and large, it's the socially liberal and well-educated, e.g. Oxford or Cheltenham vs. the socially-conservative and less-educated, e.g. Plymouth or Portsmouth.

    May I politely point out that a R4 programme is not necessarily the best place to find facts. It's more a summary of the chattering-class consensus, which may or may not line up with the truth.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    We're in a pathetic and ridiculous situation right now. Most people would probably initially hate it, because they'll be told to hate it, but would accept the new normal quickly enough.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 943
    All of a sudden Leavers can’t sleep with worry over a Customs Union!

    The desperate revision of history is tragic , I doubt the minutae of the CU was discussed over breakfast up and down the country in the EU ref campaign.

    As for the ERG are they never not angry about something , indeed I’m surprised they haven’t self combusted given the daily rage they throw out when no wants to play with their unicorns .

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126

    Mr. Eagles, obviously that's my opinion. You could add that to every post.

    Half-in, half-out, prolongs and deepens the political divide whilst failing to respect the democratic result of the referendum or satisfy those who genuinely believe we must remain in.

    It's a pathetic splitting the difference compromise, trying to stand in the middle of chasm instead of the land either side.

    Just imagine how bad it would be if we didn't hold all the cards.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,054

    This appeared on my recommended list. Thought PB might like it too:

    Interesting that it has Chinese subtitles. I can see President Xi nodding along quite happily with that theme...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    edited April 7

    Mr. Eagles, obviously that's my opinion. You could add that to every post.

    Half-in, half-out, prolongs and deepens the political divide whilst failing to respect the democratic result of the referendum or satisfy those who genuinely believe we must remain in.

    It's a pathetic splitting the difference compromise, trying to stand in the middle of chasm instead of the land either side.

    Yes, probably. Better that than the seeming alternative, that we stand on the edge for another year staring into the chasm and doing nothing. At least something can be done when we land.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. 67, as I mentioned above, I raised the customs union as literally my only serious red line both before and after the referendum result...

    Mr. Eagles, strange sense of condescension from a man who both supported He Who Called The Referendum (and lost it despite every advantage) and who advocated leaving the EU but waiting for a decade more of integration.

    The UK negotiation has been terrible due to the incompetence of May, the EU's duplicity (the deal cannot be reopened at all, it's set in stone, unless you want a customs union...), and a significant number of UK politicians who seem to have rather greater regard for the EU than the British electorate.

    Mr. Palmer, from the comments, the subtitles (in Chinese, not sure about the English, didn't check) even add Oxford/Cambridge for the university joke.

    Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    nico67 said:

    All of a sudden Leavers can’t sleep with worry over a Customs Union!

    The desperate revision of history is tragic , I doubt the minutae of the CU was discussed over breakfast up and down the country in the EU ref campaign.

    As for the ERG are they never not angry about something , indeed I’m surprised they haven’t self combusted given the daily rage they throw out when no wants to play with their unicorns .

    The only question on the paper was should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave the EU?

    Everything else was up for grabs. Of course people who had strong views expressed opinions and suggested what the possible results of a vote one way or the other might be but every person who voted leave had to make their overall judgment and what we know is that we decided, by a small majority, to leave.

    I voted to leave because I was concerned that QMV would favour the development of EZ centric policies to our detriment over time. I don't recall seeing any posters about it, strangely enough.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. kle4, I would've thought we'd walk in the other direction, but there we are.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441

    We have heard a lot about the jingoistic pretensions of the Leave side, and its alleged or real xenophobia

    But the Remain side is at least as guilty of gross self-delusion. Carrot-crunchers, urghh.

    How did the paunched Remainers ever think they would win a referendum in a society in which there is extensive poverty, poor education, low paid employment and gross & increasing inequality?

    Remain need to listen to “The Threepenny Ouverture”.

    Now all you gentleman who wish to lead us
    Who teach us to desist from mortal sin
    Your prior obligation is to feed us
    When we’ve had lunch, the preaching can begin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    Mr. kle4, I would've thought we'd walk in the other direction, but there we are.

    That does not seem likely to me.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,054
    Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.

    A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 7
    Pulpstar said:

    Judging by the below the line comments of May's tweet, I'd say the deal as it is looking is very fair to both leavers and remainers.

    Fair enough I say. As long as it’s stops FOM it delivers on the referendum. Leave were never in with a chance until they majored on immigration, it’s what the whole thing was about.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126

    Mr. 67, as I mentioned above, I raised the customs union as literally my only serious red line both before and after the referendum result...

    Mr. Eagles, strange sense of condescension from a man who both supported He Who Called The Referendum (and lost it despite every advantage) and who advocated leaving the EU but waiting for a decade more of integration.

    The UK negotiation has been terrible due to the incompetence of May, the EU's duplicity (the deal cannot be reopened at all, it's set in stone, unless you want a customs union...), and a significant number of UK politicians who seem to have rather greater regard for the EU than the British electorate.

    Mr. Palmer, from the comments, the subtitles (in Chinese, not sure about the English, didn't check) even add Oxford/Cambridge for the university joke.

    Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.

    You need to stop misrepresenting me.

    I said if the situation changed then we'd leave alongside a few other countries which would make things easier in leaving.

    I did point out at the time when we joined we had a seven year transition, something we should have done on the way out.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
    It's worse than that.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
    It's worse than that.

    Oh lord. Can we not just say we're really, really sorry to Gordon and would he please come back?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
    It's worse than that.

    Oh lord. Can we not just say we're really, really sorry to Gordon and would he please come back?
    He's never getting a job ever again.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/07/gordon-strachan-will-not-appear-on-sky-again-after-adam-johnson-remarks
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,167
    edited April 7

    Mr. 67, as I mentioned above, I raised the customs union as literally my only serious red line both before and after the referendum result...

    Mr. Eagles, strange sense of condescension from a man who both supported He Who Called The Referendum (and lost it despite every advantage) and who advocated leaving the EU but waiting for a decade more of integration.

    The UK negotiation has been terrible due to the incompetence of May, the EU's duplicity (the deal cannot be reopened at all, it's set in stone, unless you want a customs union...), and a significant number of UK politicians who seem to have rather greater regard for the EU than the British electorate.

    Mr. Palmer, from the comments, the subtitles (in Chinese, not sure about the English, didn't check) even add Oxford/Cambridge for the university joke.

    Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.

    I don't think any UK politicians have a higher regard for the EU than the British electorate. UK politicians who oppose Brexit generally believe the economic fortunes of the country are better within the EU rather than outside it. One can argue that maintaining a stronger economy within the EU as we are at the moment means we can project more power on the world stage in the guise of hard military power (Two brand new aircraft carriers and their complement of state of the art fighter jets) and the soft power of international development aid. Being in the EU has worked for Britain economically, we can only speculate what possibilities outside the protective fortress of the Single Market & CU may usher in.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
    I don't know enough about football to judge whether the analogy is good.. :(
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
    It's worse than that.

    Oh lord. Can we not just say we're really, really sorry to Gordon and would he please come back?
    He's never getting a job ever again.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/07/gordon-strachan-will-not-appear-on-sky-again-after-adam-johnson-remarks
    It's a pretty stupid comment badly phrased but really? People are too precious.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441

    Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.

    A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?

    I agree with that. I wouldn’t sign (and I have never voted Tory and have occasionally voted LibDem).

    And the huge size of Brecon and Radnor does not help. As I understand it, you have to get to designated signing places to sign the recall petition. No one but a LibDem fanatic is going to drive 40 miles to do that in B & R. There is little public transport in rural Wales, it could take most of a day to get to a signing place and back via buses if you live anywhere remote.

    I don’t think the LibDems have yet understood why they are in retreat in Mid Wales (in both Westminster and the Assembly), so I am pretty sceptical whether they will even win a by-election (even if one is held).

    2017 was the first election in Wales in which no Liberal/LibDem MP was returned for centuries. The LibDems need to understand that fact first, before blathering about taking Brecon and Radnor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    It's why I don't hang out with other Leavers, my lack of adherence to the general look makes me stand out all the more.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    I'll have you know that my Fitbit says I have "very good" cardiovascular fitness for my age. If I could get rid of my paunch it would "excellent".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    Think of Farage and Francois as the portraits in the attic for the Brexi-hunks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886

    Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.

    Unfortunately, it was out of date as it was written. If you cross-reference the jokes to their real-life inspirations, it's based on a lot of 60's and 70's references. In the 80's and 90's the civil service was being shaken up, and these days the concept of a hypercompetent civil servant secretary guiding a befuddled minister is pretty much absent (unfortunately, IMHO). "The Thick of It" and "In The Loop" were much better in terms of reflecting reality.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    It's why I don't hang out with other Leavers, my lack of adherence to the general look makes me stand out all the more.
    I can only pause in admiration... :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Scott_P said:
    Sensible chap.

    The article contains the line: "It’s a decision which will not just viscerally impact the lives of our children. But also our children’s children."

    I am afraid to say children's children will be far too worried about extreme climate collapse to care about the EU decision.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.

    It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.

    Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.

    Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
    It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!
    We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal... :)
    With Mourinho as manager perhaps?
    It's worse than that.

    Silk purse meet sow’s ear.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    I'll have you know that my Fitbit says I have "very good" cardiovascular fitness for my age. If I could get rid of my paunch it would "excellent".
    Unsarcastically, have you tried swimming? It works really well if you can stick to a routine.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,806
    Scott_P said:
    That’s well worth a read.

    Finally – and without naming them – I must state that there are many MPs (and not a few journalists) still marching under the Brexit banner who will read this article with a sympathy and support they do not feel able to declare. They too have changed their minds.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    I'll have you know that my Fitbit says I have "very good" cardiovascular fitness for my age. If I could get rid of my paunch it would "excellent".
    Unsarcastically, have you tried swimming? It works really well if you can stick to a routine.
    The squat challenge is good too, not that I have done it for years
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 943
    Scott_P said:
    Wow didn’t see that coming ! Unfortunately Mr Oborne will now be rounded on by the Brexit zealots who will attack the messenger ignoring his very thoughtful article .

    It’s hard to accept you’re wrong so all credit to him for doing so.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,338

    I still don't think Labour and the Tories will actually agree anything! They are just going through the motions IMO. Staying in the EU is preferable to some Tories who are Brexit through and through when considering a CU and the rest of Labour's objectives.

    Theresa: Just tell me one thing, Jeremy. You're going out there to destroy the ERG, right. Not to study, not to vote alongside them. But to wipe them out!

    Jeremy: That's the plan. You have my word on that!

    Theresa: All right, I'm in!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow didn’t see that coming ! Unfortunately Mr Oborne will now be rounded on by the Brexit zealots who will attack the messenger ignoring his very thoughtful article .

    It’s hard to accept you’re wrong so all credit to him for doing so.
    +1

    When is it appearing in the Mail?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441
    edited April 7
    viewcode said:

    ...How did the paunched Remainers...

    I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare... :)

    For sure, the Leavers are Hook-Finger Jacob and Robert the Saw and Wally the Weeper.

    And they are led by Macheath and Peachum who will happily betray them (they are good approximations to Farage and Francois).

    But, Brecht would have understand instinctively why you could not win something like the 2016 Referendum in such a discontented and unequal society as ours.

    Many Remainers can’t. They are as deluded as the worst jingoists on the Leave side.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 508
    viewcode said:

    "The Thick of It" and "In The Loop" were much better in terms of reflecting reality.

    Basically nobody knows what's going on and spin doctors swear a lot?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    Scott_P said:
    Peter Oborne is talking bollocks, he writes

    As the end has come closer she’s turned into a shapeshifter, like the android assassin in the final stages of the second ‘Terminator’ film, moving desperately from one Brexit model to another.

    ANDROID? He was a cyborg.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.

    A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?

    I agree with that. I wouldn’t sign (and I have never voted Tory and have occasionally voted LibDem).

    And the huge size of Brecon and Radnor does not help. As I understand it, you have to get to designated signing places to sign the recall petition. No one but a LibDem fanatic is going to drive 40 miles to do that in B & R. There is little public transport in rural Wales, it could take most of a day to get to a signing place and back via buses if you live anywhere remote.

    I don’t think the LibDems have yet understood why they are in retreat in Mid Wales (in both Westminster and the Assembly), so I am pretty sceptical whether they will even win a by-election (even if one is held).

    2017 was the first election in Wales in which no Liberal/LibDem MP was returned for centuries. The LibDems need to understand that fact first, before blathering about taking Brecon and Radnor.
    Being second to the Tories in the current climate is a good start.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441
    IanB2 said:

    Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.

    A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?

    I agree with that. I wouldn’t sign (and I have never voted Tory and have occasionally voted LibDem).

    And the huge size of Brecon and Radnor does not help. As I understand it, you have to get to designated signing places to sign the recall petition. No one but a LibDem fanatic is going to drive 40 miles to do that in B & R. There is little public transport in rural Wales, it could take most of a day to get to a signing place and back via buses if you live anywhere remote.

    I don’t think the LibDems have yet understood why they are in retreat in Mid Wales (in both Westminster and the Assembly), so I am pretty sceptical whether they will even win a by-election (even if one is held).

    2017 was the first election in Wales in which no Liberal/LibDem MP was returned for centuries. The LibDems need to understand that fact first, before blathering about taking Brecon and Radnor.
    Being second to the Tories in the current climate is a good start.
    Perhaps slightly more thought could be given as to why you are down to zero MPs, 1 AM and are the fifth party in Wales ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,338
    edited April 7

    Scott_P said:
    Peter Oborne is talking bollocks, he writes

    As the end has come closer she’s turned into a shapeshifter, like the android assassin in the final stages of the second ‘Terminator’ film, moving desperately from one Brexit model to another.

    ANDROID? He was a cyborg.
    No, the cyborg was Arnie's character. The T1000 (Robert Patrick) seemed to have no organic parts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126

    Scott_P said:
    Peter Oborne is talking bollocks, he writes

    As the end has come closer she’s turned into a shapeshifter, like the android assassin in the final stages of the second ‘Terminator’ film, moving desperately from one Brexit model to another.

    ANDROID? He was a cyborg.
    No, the cyborg was Arnie's character. The T1000 (Robert Patrick) seemed to have no organic parts.
    Listen to the audio commentary/special features of T2.

    James Cameron calls him a cyborg.

    A Porsche to Arnie's tank.
This discussion has been closed.