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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    The Tories can split into a sensible party and a stupid party, both in favour of PR
    The stupid party will oppose PR 'because it's not in accordance with our traditions" or some similar codswallop.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070
    A number of points:-

    1. The Conservatives are contesting 97% of seats, compared to 93% in 2015. Labour are contesting 77% up from 74%, the Lib Dems are contesting 52%, up from 46%. The Conservatives have been given a pass in many seats that were won by Labour and Lib Dems in the Nineties and Noughties, but which they no longer fight.

    In addition, the Conservatives have been returned unopposed, or are mathematically guaranteed election in about 210 seats. Labour's huge increase in membership has not been replicated by a willingness to fight local elections in the Shire Districts.

    2. The opposition to the Conservatives is split, in contrast to the 1990's. Labour is polling in the low thirties, the Lib Dems around 10%. Greens, UKIP, and Independents can expect decent chunks of support, but in many cases, it splits the non-Conservative vote.

    3. The elections are mostly in Leave-supporting England, unlike last year's. That in itself blunts the appeal of Remain-supporting parties.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
    You know that's not the choice that will be offered don't you? :wink:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    So many stupid choices. PR is clearly superior to having no choice of stupid in a safe seat.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,646

    Since we appear to be having a caesura in the Brexit cacophony, a distraction with Labour plans for federalism, part 417, by a Marxist baroness (is this a mistake?-ed) no less!



    This is the sort of thing I have always thought is a worry for anyone who is a moderate conservative; that constitutional reform is left to the extremists. Conservatives should embrace PR and the abolition of hereditary peers before someone else does it. Sadly not likely to happen now headbangers have taken over the party
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    edited April 8
    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 153
    edited April 8
    IanB2 wrote
    PVs must be landing in two weeks or so

    Postal votes will most commonly be posted in two tranches: The first on 10th April - that's Wednesday to arrive on this coming Friday 12th and secondly, [following the deadline for registering for a postal vote expiring on 4pm Monday 15th April] on 18th April to arrive on Easter Saturday.

    In most areas, the result will be set by Easter Monday such is the quantum of votes that are now cast by post.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,765
    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    I agree with both of you*.

    But the simple fact is, and TMay has grasped this to her very limited credit, we cannot leave with no deal and our parliamentary system is such that we seem to be having trouble leaving any other way either. Which makes the least impossible options (revoke, 2Ref, GE) as possible.

    *PB first, perhaps.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    Not JRM's pile by any chance? :wink:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,646

    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    The Tories can split into a sensible party and a stupid party, both in favour of PR
    A nasty party and a very nasty party.
    I am sure you are just trying to be amusing. The true nasty party in this country is Momentum, a nasty party within a party. Closely followed by the ERG and the SNP. All these organisations use division and hatred to advance their views, and the former and latter have followers who are quite happy to use threats of violence and intimidation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,590
    IanB2 said:

    So many stupid choices. PR is clearly superior to having no choice of stupid in a safe seat.

    There’s a good argument that Nick Clegg as DPM would have been much better off trying to get PR for local elections, than AV for Parliamentary ones. Councils where 90% or more of the elected members are from one party isn’t the best way to run things, as much as the party leaders in those areas love the situation and the power it gives them.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    Not JRM's pile by any chance? :wink:
    Ha!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,810

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    It won't make any difference. The fact that he is a grasping arsehole is priced in at this point.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    Dura_Ace said:

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    It won't make any difference. The fact that he is a grasping arsehole is priced in at this point.
    Might dent the burgeoning Bamber romance
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,611
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
    Your current position seems to be that you accept that the last referendum was supported by people whose vision of Brexit will not come to pass but that they are not allowed to change their mind in the light of new information in a new referendum.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257
    IanB2 said:

    A tie, and Bercow can decide

    Well that would top everything. Wonder which way he would go. Convention says the status quo but that does not help. Remaining in the EU is the SQ, but so is Leave No Deal, since that is the legal position and Revoke would radically overturn it.

    My hunch is that he would demonstrate to everyone how impartial he is by opting for No Deal.

    Cue Bercow tee shirts and tattoos becoming almost de rigueur in every single town and village in the land that has been left behind by globalization and voted Leave in a collective howl of despair and rage against the machine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715

    Since we appear to be having a caesura in the Brexit cacophony, a distraction with Labour plans for federalism, part 417, by a Marxist baroness (is this a mistake?-ed) no less!



    This is the sort of thing I have always thought is a worry for anyone who is a moderate conservative; that constitutional reform is left to the extremists. Conservatives should embrace PR and the abolition of hereditary peers before someone else does it. Sadly not likely to happen now headbangers have taken over the party
    Apart from the obvious and unnecessary politicisation, there is a lot in that paper that is sensible.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,963
    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    I would suggest that the atmosphere would be febrile.

    But if the choice comes down to No Deal or Revoke, and Revoke wins, I would think it the lesser of two evils. Leavers did not campaign on the merits of No Deal in the referendum campaign. They should not be able to force it onto the country by refusing to agree to a deal.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648
    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    A tie, and Bercow can decide

    Well that would top everything. Wonder which way he would go. Convention says the status quo but that does not help. Remaining in the EU is the SQ, but so is Leave No Deal, since that is the legal position and Revoke would radically overturn it.

    My hunch is that he would demonstrate to everyone how impartial he is by opting for No Deal.

    Cue Bercow tee shirts and tattoos becoming almost de rigueur in every single town and village in the land that has been left behind by globalization and voted Leave in a collective howl of despair and rage against the machine.
    That’s some seriously good shit you’re smoking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,590

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    Is that a house he bought for the ex-wife, or a house he bought for the lover?

    Divorces often get messy, ask Chris Huhne.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,810

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    It won't make any difference. The fact that he is a grasping arsehole is priced in at this point.
    Might dent the burgeoning Bamber romance
    Glummy Mummy won't care. She might be CotE for as long as 4 weeks. That's surely a prize worth any measure of moral compromise.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boris in the shit with the commons standards people

    Failure to declare a financial interest in Somerset property in timely fashion

    It won't make any difference. The fact that he is a grasping arsehole is priced in at this point.
    Might dent the burgeoning Bamber romance
    Amber now seems to be doing the walk of shame
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more Leavers; most evidence now suggests the reverse.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
    Your current position seems to be that you accept that the last referendum was supported by people whose vision of Brexit will not come to pass but that they are not allowed to change their mind in the light of new information in a new referendum.
    Aren’t you at all uncomfortable with the ‘dont bother implementing the result for three years then try and get it overturned’ filibuster look?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    I would suggest that the atmosphere would be febrile.

    But if the choice comes down to No Deal or Revoke, and Revoke wins, I would think it the lesser of two evils. Leavers did not campaign on the merits of No Deal in the referendum campaign. They should not be able to force it onto the country by refusing to agree to a deal.
    Exactly. There is a qualitative difference between being upset and being bankrupt or unemployed
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    I would suggest that the atmosphere would be febrile.

    But if the choice comes down to No Deal or Revoke, and Revoke wins, I would think it the lesser of two evils. Leavers did not campaign on the merits of No Deal in the referendum campaign. They should not be able to force it onto the country by refusing to agree to a deal.
    That may or may not be so. But, Leave supporters will still be annoyed if Revoke takes place.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,461
    edited April 8
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    Yeah, the old folks homes will be having riots :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
    Your current position seems to be that you accept that the last referendum was supported by people whose vision of Brexit will not come to pass but that they are not allowed to change their mind in the light of new information in a new referendum.
    Aren’t you at all uncomfortable with the ‘dont bother implementing the result for three years then try and get it overturned’ filibuster look?
    Government has been doing little other than bothering for nearly three years
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,646
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more of you in 2016, by a small percentage margin. What we don't know is whether there still are.

    I think one of Leave's biggest mistakes was the fact that they didn't expect to win, and then when they did their supporters have crowed about it far too much, as though they won by some massive margin. Had they been a bit more humble they might have carried other people with them. Their silly obsession has created a divided nation unprecedented in recent history. I will have no sympathy if their precious Brexit is now lost. It will just be a different 50% plus or minus a bit who will be pissed off.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    There's a majority for remain in parliament. Fear of what happens if they revoke us why the option has got nowhere near in any outing so far. Claims we just get on with other stuff and shrug it off are way off imo
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,611
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
    Your current position seems to be that you accept that the last referendum was supported by people whose vision of Brexit will not come to pass but that they are not allowed to change their mind in the light of new information in a new referendum.
    Aren’t you at all uncomfortable with the ‘dont bother implementing the result for three years then try and get it overturned’ filibuster look?
    There hasn't been an absence of an attempt to implement the result. There has, however, been a complete cluelessness among Leavers about what they actually want (as opposed to what they don't want).

    I'm not yet in favour of a fresh referendum, as such. But if there is a fresh referendum, it shouldn't exclude what is by far the most popular single option just because Leavers really really don't like it. That would be a travesty of democracy.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 441
    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    But that's impossible. If the EU block an extension on Wednesday, she can't have a general election in 1 day.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257

    Backs Remain and leaves the country.

    Into witness protection.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,547
    Scott_P said:
    It's been on the agenda since 1968 and before. Another reason why we should be aiming to shaft Dublin left right and centre over their approach to Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?
    /blockquote>

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.

    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more of you in 2016, by a small percentage margin. What we don't know is whether there still are.

    I think one of Leave's biggest mistakes was the fact that they didn't expect to win, and then when they did their supporters have crowed about it far too much, as though they won by some massive margin. Had they been a bit more humble they might have carried other people with them. Their silly obsession has created a divided nation unprecedented in recent history. I will have no sympathy if their precious Brexit is now lost. It will just be a different 50% plus or minus a bit who will be pissed off.
    Their opponents have no problem with a divided nation so long as they are the ones in charge.

    Certainly, a lot of problems stem from the fact that Leavers never expected to win. Many of them never got out of an opposition mindset. Many of their opponents never got out of the mindset that they were born to rule.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
    Your current position seems to be that you accept that the last referendum was supported by people whose vision of Brexit will not come to pass but that they are not allowed to change their mind in the light of new information in a new referendum.
    Aren’t you at all uncomfortable with the ‘dont bother implementing the result for three years then try and get it overturned’ filibuster look?
    There hasn't been an absence of an attempt to implement the result. There has, however, been a complete cluelessness among Leavers about what they actually want (as opposed to what they don't want).

    I'm not yet in favour of a fresh referendum, as such. But if there is a fresh referendum, it shouldn't exclude what is by far the most popular single option just because Leavers really really don't like it. That would be a travesty of democracy.
    But the last four big UK elections, when they were hypotheticals, were all called extremely inaccurately by the measure you use to back up ‘by far the most popular single option’
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,547

    There's a majority for remain in parliament. Fear of what happens if they revoke us why the option has got nowhere near in any outing so far. Claims we just get on with other stuff and shrug it off are way off imo

    I suspect they will try and revoke first and worry about the aftermath later - they are that stupid.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,646
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    Yeah, the old folks homes will be having riots :)
    Barricades made of bath chairs and Zimmer frames.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    Yeah, the old folks homes will be having riots :)
    Old folks have time on their hands.... The new national sport - if MPs revoke - will be finding ever more creative (yet legal) ways to make their life hell....
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more Leavers; most evidence now suggests the reverse.
    That evidence suggested there were more Remainers in 86% of polls in 2015
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,590
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's been on the agenda since 1968 and before. Another reason why we should be aiming to shaft Dublin left right and centre over their approach to Brexit.
    I'd love to know what the EU and RoI have as their secret plan to avoid a border under a no-deal scenario. Inspections on all goods leaving RoI for the EU? I think Varadkar has massively overplayed his hand, by taking the adversarial rather than collaborative approach.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,646
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?
    /blockquote>

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.

    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more of you in 2016, by a small percentage margin. What we don't know is whether there still are.

    I think one of Leave's biggest mistakes was the fact that they didn't expect to win, and then when they did their supporters have crowed about it far too much, as though they won by some massive margin. Had they been a bit more humble they might have carried other people with them. Their silly obsession has created a divided nation unprecedented in recent history. I will have no sympathy if their precious Brexit is now lost. It will just be a different 50% plus or minus a bit who will be pissed off.
    Their opponents have no problem with a divided nation so long as they are the ones in charge.

    Certainly, a lot of problems stem from the fact that Leavers never expected to win. Many of them never got out of an opposition mindset. Many of their opponents never got out of the mindset that they were born to rule.
    I didn't realise JRM and Boris didn't consider themselves "born to rule". The idea that "the establishment" is on the side of Remain is not born out by the number of "elitists" who speak for leaving the EU, and the fact that the main party of the Establishment is now heavily in favour of leaving the EU
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 441
    I'm not wrong in thinking that by Saturday, one of four things will have happened:

    We revoke A50, and face all the political fallout that comes from that.
    We accept the deal, and prepare to leave on 23rd May 2019.
    We leave without a deal, and face all the economic (and political) fallout from having done that.
    We've all seen the can, and couldn't do anything but kick it and secure an extension - but for how long and to do what is yet unknown.

    I'd suggest ALL the above are unlikely, but the most 'likely' is probably an extension. And I wouldn't be surprised if it is an extension with no plan of what to do with that extension. Thus the uncertainty continues, probably the worst of the four outcomes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,611
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more Leavers; most evidence now suggests the reverse.
    That evidence suggested there were more Remainers in 86% of polls in 2015
    When finally counted there were 48%. The polls rightly identified it was a very popular option. It's just not credible to suggest that it isn't now either.

    It might not win a fresh referendum. But it can't be excluded as one of the possible outcomes when it is still polling so well, just because you hate it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. Sandpit, disagree. May will fold utterly.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,236

    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    Yeah, this is the big trend for the forthcoming GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
    I live in Norwich North myself , and it perhaps needs to be pointed out that circa 60% of the constituency falls within the boundaries of Broadland rather than Norwich City. I don't think Chloe Smith's prospects are as bleak as implied here. My spoilt ballot paper will be of some assistance to her !
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648
    edited April 8

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more Leavers; most evidence now suggests the reverse.
    That evidence suggested there were more Remainers in 86% of polls in 2015
    When finally counted there were 48%. The polls rightly identified it was a very popular option. It's just not credible to suggest that it isn't now either.

    It might not win a fresh referendum. But it can't be excluded as one of the possible outcomes when it is still polling so well, just because you hate it.
    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    2015 Pollsters had Remain winning by an average of 8%, it is not good work by them when it loses by 4
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 531
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's been on the agenda since 1968 and before. Another reason why we should be aiming to shaft Dublin left right and centre over their approach to Brexit.
    What an eejit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?
    /blockquote>

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.

    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    Remain supporters will be; Leave supporters won't be.
    And there are more of us!!! 😂
    There WERE more of you in 2016, by a small percentage margin. What we don't know is whether there still are.

    I think one of Leave's biggest mistakes was the fact that they didn't expect to win, and then when they did their supporters have crowed about it far too much, as though they won by some massive margin. Had they been a bit more humble they might have carried other people with them. Their silly obsession has created a divided nation unprecedented in recent history. I will have no sympathy if their precious Brexit is now lost. It will just be a different 50% plus or minus a bit who will be pissed off.
    Their opponents have no problem with a divided nation so long as they are the ones in charge.

    Certainly, a lot of problems stem from the fact that Leavers never expected to win. Many of them never got out of an opposition mindset. Many of their opponents never got out of the mindset that they were born to rule.
    I didn't realise JRM and Boris didn't consider themselves "born to rule". The idea that "the establishment" is on the side of Remain is not born out by the number of "elitists" who speak for leaving the EU, and the fact that the main party of the Establishment is now heavily in favour of leaving the EU
    Not all the Establishment, but a clear majority of it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,338
    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    justin124 said:

    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    Yeah, this is the big trend for the forthcoming GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
    I live in Norwich North myself , and it perhaps needs to be pointed out that circa 60% of the constituency falls within the boundaries of Broadland rather than Norwich City. I don't think Chloe Smith's prospects are as bleak as implied here. My spoilt ballot paper will be of some assistance to her !
    I'm in Clive Lewis section of the fine city. There's certainly a lot more burbs in chloe's patch but she struggled more than the tide suggested she should in 15 and 17, the trend is firmly against her. In 15 the lab candidate barely tried.....
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Who's that?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    Streeter said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's been on the agenda since 1968 and before. Another reason why we should be aiming to shaft Dublin left right and centre over their approach to Brexit.
    What an eejit.
    Bullying a smaller nation. Never a good idea. And before anyone says anything, the EU has been bending over backwards to be helpful to the UK.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257
    edited April 8
    IanB2 said:

    Amber now seems to be doing the walk of shame

    I'm not buying this story of Rudd leaning into Johnson. He would be running on Hard Brexit and she is on record as being prepared to die first. Being CoE, especially the first Doris to be so, is a massive prize but it's not worth dying for.

    Re No Deal, it strikes me that TM shying away from it is a matter of great significance. Most Con members want it, most Leave voters want it, most of her MPs either want it or would tolerate it, it is clearly a better way to keep her beloved Tory Party together than to compromise with Corbyn's Labour and pursue a BINO, and yet she has all but ruled it out.

    Why? Because she knows, she knows for a fact having seen all of the relevant gen, that leaving without a Deal would be a disastrous disaster of truly disastrous proportions.

    Project Fear is not that. It is the real thing undiluted. It is Fear.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,338
    edited April 8
    isam said:

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Who's that?
    The list is here, with a few exceptions (Gove, Fox and Grayling for example)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_Leave#Campaign_Committee
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Who's that?
    The list is here, with a few exceptions (Gove and Grayling)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_Leave#Campaign_Committee
    Those people would vote Remain now?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,094
    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?


    Every parent knows that when the kids go quiet, that's the time to get worried! :-)

    More serieously, the comments along the lines of "If nothing happens then No deal happens 'cos that's the law, and there is no time for anything else so we're going to no deal on Friday" seem to have dried up.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,443

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    I don't think we can revoke without a referendum but I think you are in danger of overplaying the anger bit. Sure some Yaxley-Lennon types will turn to a bit of violence but in my experience a lot of the leavers I know know Brexit isn't working out and can't really see any real benefits now. The only reason there really seems to be for leaving now is that we voted for it so we must.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,391
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Amber now seems to be doing the walk of shame

    I'm not buying this story of Rudd leaning into Johnson. He would be running on Hard Brexit and she is on record as being prepared to die first. Being CoE, especially the first Doris to be so, is a massive prize but it's not worth dying for.

    Re No Deal, it strikes me that TM shying away from it is a matter of great significance. Most Con members want it, most Leave voters want it, most of her MPs either want it or would tolerate it, it is clearly a better way to keep her beloved Tory Party together than to compromise with Corbyn's Labour and pursue a BINO, and yet she has all but ruled it out.

    Why? Because she knows, she knows for a fact having seen all of the relevant gen, that leaving without a Deal would be a disastrous disaster of truly disastrous proportions.

    Project Fear is not that. It is the real thing undiluted. It is Fear.
    ‘First Doris to do so’

    What is this? The 1960s?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,101

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Nope. They still like Brexit, they just don't think that what is on offer qualifies. I think they are wrong but to claim 'they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for' is clearly a dishonest misrepresentation.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    Brexit is of course giving the jew hating sector of corbyns labour some cover after yesterdays revelations and VONC. Guess the rest of his mps are relaxed about it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,760
    Sandpit said:

    Consumer champion Martin Lewis got an undisclosed (but it would have been large) payout from Facebook over ads with his image on them trying to sell all sorts of scams.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46972940


    Yeah, cost them a pretty penny.

    And yet, his name/face are still being used, to advertise the exact same scam. As is Bill Gates, the owners of Liverpool/Man Utd, and any number of other celebs.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,338
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Who's that?
    The list is here, with a few exceptions (Gove and Grayling)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_Leave#Campaign_Committee
    Those people would vote Remain now?
    I've no idea what they would vote - some of them are on record are saying that the Brexit they campaigned for is worse than Remaining. The point is that they've voted to torpedo the almost exact thing they campaigned for, which is a massive change by any standard.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    OllyT said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    I don't think we can revoke without a referendum but I think you are in danger of overplaying the anger bit. Sure some Yaxley-Lennon types will turn to a bit of violence but in my experience a lot of the leavers I know know Brexit isn't working out and can't really see any real benefits now. The only reason there really seems to be for leaving now is that we voted for it so we must.
    I'm more anticipating a voting lurch to extreme in terms of Brexit, not suggesting mass civil unrest. Politicians are not liked rn, other options will get looked at
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Who's that?
    The list is here, with a few exceptions (Gove and Grayling)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_Leave#Campaign_Committee
    Those people would vote Remain now?
    I've no idea what they would vote - some of them are on record are saying that the Brexit they campaigned for is worse than Remaining. The point is that they've voted to torpedo the almost exact thing they campaigned for, which is a massive change by any standard.
    To be honest I was talking about a change of opinion in the general public, not from politicians, so it doesn't really matter anyway,

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,563
    There is a fallacy that leaving the EU is somehow difficult, but it doesn't fit the facts, There's a bureaucracy to unravel and that will take time but it's not rocket science.

    Mrs May is incompetent, but even she managed to negotiate a deal. It was agreed by the EU and was favourable to the EU rather than to the UK, but that's where her incompetence showed a little.

    Why then are we not out?

    In a word ... MPs.

    Desperate to either get their imprint on the deal or to obstruct it. The ERG - fewer than a hundred but finally pulling into line. The Labour party and assorted minorities aiming to obstruct for political reasons - the majority against and with no intention of letting it go through. Even Norman Lamb is embarrassed. Engaging now in blame-shifting and little else.

    Whining like children when their guilt is exposed.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257

    That’s some seriously good shit you’re smoking.

    Silk Cut Purple.

    Rock and Roll.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,338
    edited April 8

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Nope. They still like Brexit, they just don't think that what is on offer qualifies. I think they are wrong but to claim 'they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for' is clearly a dishonest misrepresentation.
    It's not a dishonest representation at all. It's the exact truth:

    - Out of the political structures of the EU
    - Out of ever-closer union
    - Definitively out of the 'EU Army' (nonsense of course, but they claimed to believe it)
    - Out of the CAP
    - Out of the CFP
    - Out of the Single Market
    - Out of the Customs Union
    - Out of direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in UK domestic law
    - Possible to do our own trade deals
    - End of Freedom of Movement (aka 'Control of our borders')
    - End of big payments to the EU budget (aka '£350m a week for the NHS')
    - In a comprehensive free-trade deal with the EU
    - And - most important of all - all this with the promised smooth transition and minimal disruption.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,443

    OllyT said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    I don't think we can revoke without a referendum but I think you are in danger of overplaying the anger bit. Sure some Yaxley-Lennon types will turn to a bit of violence but in my experience a lot of the leavers I know know Brexit isn't working out and can't really see any real benefits now. The only reason there really seems to be for leaving now is that we voted for it so we must.
    I'm more anticipating a voting lurch to extreme in terms of Brexit, not suggesting mass civil unrest. Politicians are not liked rn, other options will get looked at
    Unless change the FPTP voting system to PR it will end up a damp squib like Farage's march
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. Andrew, not just household names, I've heard of videogame journalists having their faces used to sell games with which they have no connection at all.

    I remain utterly unpersuaded the government and their efforts to regulate will improve things, though. Likelier to bugger things up for the law-abiding than to impede dubious persons and their dodgy practices.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,031
    CD13 said:

    There is a fallacy that leaving the EU is somehow difficult, but it doesn't fit the facts, There's a bureaucracy to unravel and that will take time but it's not rocket science.

    Mrs May is incompetent, but even she managed to negotiate a deal. It was agreed by the EU and was favourable to the EU rather than to the UK, but that's where her incompetence showed a little.

    Why then are we not out?

    In a word ... MPs.

    Desperate to either get their imprint on the deal or to obstruct it. The ERG - fewer than a hundred but finally pulling into line. The Labour party and assorted minorities aiming to obstruct for political reasons - the majority against and with no intention of letting it go through. Even Norman Lamb is embarrassed. Engaging now in blame-shifting and little else.

    Whining like children when their guilt is exposed.


    Have you ever tought why you want to leave?

    What's the EU ever done to you?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,391
    CD13 said:

    There is a fallacy that leaving the EU is somehow difficult, but it doesn't fit the facts, There's a bureaucracy to unravel and that will take time but it's not rocket science.

    Mrs May is incompetent, but even she managed to negotiate a deal. It was agreed by the EU and was favourable to the EU rather than to the UK, but that's where her incompetence showed a little.

    Why then are we not out?

    In a word ... MPs.

    Desperate to either get their imprint on the deal or to obstruct it. The ERG - fewer than a hundred but finally pulling into line. The Labour party and assorted minorities aiming to obstruct for political reasons - the majority against and with no intention of letting it go through. Even Norman Lamb is embarrassed. Engaging now in blame-shifting and little else.

    Whining like children when their guilt is exposed.


    Well my MP is against Brexit and wants to reverse the decision and I for one am very grateful for it. She sure is representing me.

    Her views on this were very clear and yet she was re-elected in my leave voting constituency so its clearly been endorsed.

    Stop whinging because Brexit has turned into a disaster. MPs are not to blame. It’s May’s fault for not involving her own party, never mind the Commons.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648
    edited April 8

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Nope. They still like Brexit, they just don't think that what is on offer qualifies. I think they are wrong but to claim 'they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for' is clearly a dishonest misrepresentation.
    It's not a dishonest representation at all. It's the exact truth:

    - Out of the political structures of the EU
    - Out of ever-closer union
    - Definitively out of the 'EU Army' (nonsense of course, but they claimed to believe it)
    - Out of the CAP
    - Out of the CFP
    - Out of the Single Market
    - Out of the Customs Union
    - Out of direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in UK domestic law
    - Possible to do our own trade deals
    - End of Freedom of Movement (aka 'Control of our borders')
    - End of big payments to the EU budget (aka '£350m a week for the NHS')
    - In a comprehensive free-trade deal with the EU
    - And - most important of all - all this with the promised smooth transition and minimal disruption.
    Yes, politicians have screwed up by not accepting the deal, after Dominic Grieve screwed up by getting them a vote on it, but that doesn't mean anything has changed in the general public.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    I don't think we can revoke without a referendum but I y real benefits now. The only reason there really seems to be for leaving now is that we voted for it so we must.
    I'm more anticipating a voting lurch to extreme in terms of Brexit, not suggesting mass civil unrest. Politicians are not liked rn, other options will get looked at
    Unless change the FPTP voting system to PR it will end up a damp squib like Farage's march
    I'd have never thought labour could be reduced to a single s Scottish seat under fptp but it happened. But happen you're right and we will bitterly muddle on, angry and irritable
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,236

    justin124 said:

    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    Yeah, this is the big trend for the forthcoming GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
    I live in Norwich North myself , and it perhaps needs to be pointed out that circa 60% of the constituency falls within the boundaries of Broadland rather than Norwich City. I don't think Chloe Smith's prospects are as bleak as implied here. My spoilt ballot paper will be of some assistance to her !
    I'm in Clive Lewis section of the fine city. There's certainly a lot more burbs in chloe's patch but she struggled more than the tide suggested she should in 15 and 17, the trend is firmly against her. In 15 the lab candidate barely tried.....
    She actually increased her majority in 2015 when Jessica Assato was Labour's candidate - ie she did better than the national swing which was 1% from Con to Lab in England.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Amber now seems to be doing the walk of shame

    I'm not buying this story of Rudd leaning into Johnson. He would be running on Hard Brexit and she is on record as being prepared to die first. Being CoE, especially the first Doris to be so, is a massive prize but it's not worth dying for.

    Re No Deal, it strikes me that TM shying away from it is a matter of great significance. Most Con members want it, most Leave voters want it, most of her MPs either want it or would tolerate it, it is clearly a better way to keep her beloved Tory Party together than to compromise with Corbyn's Labour and pursue a BINO, and yet she has all but ruled it out.

    Why? Because she knows, she knows for a fact having seen all of the relevant gen, that leaving without a Deal would be a disastrous disaster of truly disastrous proportions.

    Project Fear is not that. It is the real thing undiluted. It is Fear.
    I suspect Amber is backtracking having discovered quite how disliked Boris is amongst the PCP.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,222
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    ing GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
    I live in Norwich North myself , and it perhaps needs to be pointed out that circa 60% of the constituency falls within the boundaries of Broadland rather than Norwich City. I don't think Chloe Smith's prospects are as bleak as implied here. My spoilt ballot paper will be of some assistance to her !
    I'm in Clive Lewis section of the fine city. There's certainly a lot more burbs in chloe's patch but she struggled more than the tide suggested she should in 15 and 17, the trend is firmly against her. In 15 the lab candidate barely tried.....
    She actually increased her majority in 2015 when Jessica Assato was Labour's candidate - ie she did better than the national swing which was 1% from Con to Lab in England.
    On checking yep you're right. Jessica didnt campaign to any significant level as I recall, was heavily criticized for not being seen in the constituency
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,590
    Andrew said:

    Sandpit said:

    Consumer champion Martin Lewis got an undisclosed (but it would have been large) payout from Facebook over ads with his image on them trying to sell all sorts of scams.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46972940


    Yeah, cost them a pretty penny.

    And yet, his name/face are still being used, to advertise the exact same scam. As is Bill Gates, the owners of Liverpool/Man Utd, and any number of other celebs.
    If they can't deal with such obvious scams, it doesn't bode well that they can deal with more subtle issues such as political messaging. All their advanced systems seem utterly incapable of dealing with the likeness of someone for whom there are thousands of source images, and would be an ideal candidate for AI learning.

    Even in the land of free speech, there will be trouble if they can't keep fake news and fake political ads off their platform next year ahead of the elections, while they're also under fire for allowing racist, sexist and ageist profiling for ads under regulated areas such as housing and jobs.

    Nick Clegg's certainly going to be working hard for his seven-figure salary in the next year or two.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709
    That tweet about Sinn Fein talking with the Govt and Labour about Irish unity looks like a device to put pressure on the DUP to accept the May deal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,338
    isam said:

    Yes, politicians have screwed up by not accepting the deal, after Dominic Grieve screwed up by getting them a vote on it, but that doesn't mean anything has changed in the general public.

    The general public have not been consulted on whether the country should crash out in chaos, breaking the promises which 52% of them voted for, so it's a moot point. Otherwise I agree with you, MPs should have voted for an orderly Brexit. I'd recommend addressing your complaints to the MPs who didn't, especially those on the Vote Leave campaign committee.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,391
    edited April 8
    geoffw said:

    That tweet about Sinn Fein talking with the Govt and Labour about Irish unity looks like a device to put pressure on the DUP to accept the May deal.

    How’s that going to happen if Bercow wont allow it back?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,611
    isam said:

    isam said:

    It isn't because I hate it, it's because it lost in the first round and there is no reason to think anything has changed.

    There has been a huge and unexpected change: many of those who were prominent in the Leave campaign have decided they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for after all, and have torpedoed its implementation.
    Nope. They still like Brexit, they just don't think that what is on offer qualifies. I think they are wrong but to claim 'they don't like the Brexit they campaigned for' is clearly a dishonest misrepresentation.
    It's not a dishonest representation at all. It's the exact truth:

    - Out of the political structures of the EU
    - Out of ever-closer union
    - Definitively out of the 'EU Army' (nonsense of course, but they claimed to believe it)
    - Out of the CAP
    - Out of the CFP
    - Out of the Single Market
    - Out of the Customs Union
    - Out of direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in UK domestic law
    - Possible to do our own trade deals
    - End of Freedom of Movement (aka 'Control of our borders')
    - End of big payments to the EU budget (aka '£350m a week for the NHS')
    - In a comprehensive free-trade deal with the EU
    - And - most important of all - all this with the promised smooth transition and minimal disruption.
    Yes, politicians have screwed up by not accepting the deal, after Dominic Grieve screwed up by getting them a vote on it, but that doesn't mean anything has changed in the general public.
    You're confusing two different things here. First, is there any reason to hold a fresh referendum? It's not obvious that there is.

    Second, if there is, what options should be given? Obviously popular options should be available in any referendum. Political parties are not barred from standing again at the next general election just because they lost last time out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    CD13 said:

    There is a fallacy that leaving the EU is somehow difficult, but it doesn't fit the facts, There's a bureaucracy to unravel and that will take time but it's not rocket science.

    Mrs May is incompetent, but even she managed to negotiate a deal. It was agreed by the EU and was favourable to the EU rather than to the UK, but that's where her incompetence showed a little.

    Why then are we not out?

    In a word ... MPs.

    Desperate to either get their imprint on the deal or to obstruct it. The ERG - fewer than a hundred but finally pulling into line. The Labour party and assorted minorities aiming to obstruct for political reasons - the majority against and with no intention of letting it go through. Even Norman Lamb is embarrassed. Engaging now in blame-shifting and little else.

    Whining like children when their guilt is exposed.


    Forgetting the Irish Question was a big mistake in the campaign, though. To be fair, by both sides. (IIRC)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    Bridgen on PL arguing for a long extension and Euro elections, get rid of May and start afresh with a new PM
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257

    ‘First Doris to do so’

    What is this? The 1960s?

    OK, rebuke noted and agreed as merited.

    Been reading too much Rod Liddle. You think you're strong enough, you think you're immune, but turns out you're not.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,563
    Mr Gallowgate,


    " It’s May’s fault for not involving her own party, never mind the Commons. "

    I'm blaming her for involving the MPs. You remember, the ones who promised to honour the referendum result but were lying all along. Once trust is lost completely, why should we ever trust a manifesto again. Why even bother with writing it?

    Your MP was, at least, honest.

    By comparison, the expenses scandal was bad, but greed is a lesser crime than complete dishonesty.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    IanB2 said:

    Bridgen on PL arguing for a long extension and Euro elections, get rid of May and start afresh with a new PM

    Bridgen? That Bridgen? Are you sure you heard that night.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715

    IanB2 said:

    Bridgen on PL arguing for a long extension and Euro elections, get rid of May and start afresh with a new PM

    Bridgen? That Bridgen? Are you sure you heard that night.
    Absolutely. He is on right now. Wants a long extension and a Brexit PM.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709

    geoffw said:

    That tweet about Sinn Fein talking with the Govt and Labour about Irish unity looks like a device to put pressure on the DUP to accept the May deal.

    How’s that going to happen if Bercow wont allow it back?
    Several variants of the WDA + PD are under consideration atm.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,179
    edited April 8
    There seems rather too much of this going on i.e. the singling out prominent MPs and ministers with leave sympathies over their financial affairs (yesterday Andrea Leadsom's were raked over again) for this latest "exposure" to be entirely coincidental.
This discussion has been closed.