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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no i

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

One of the things that Corbynistas always take great pride in is the number of members who have been attracted to the party since Corbyn’s victory in the 2015 leadership election. With a reported 500k+ the red team is four or five times bigger than the blue one.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    First!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,203
    Private Francois
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    Maybe he'll organise his own indicative vote.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,203
    He was on R5 news with a clip frothing about TMay sitting down with Marxists and how a VONC would see a v different result now.

    No mention of how many time he and the ERG have voted with the Marxists thus far.... and of course some ERGs floating about voting against the Govt with said Marxist in a future confidence vote too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Tory Remainers and Labour Remainers having a discussion between themselves to work out how they can sabotage Brexit...
    The only people who have sabotaged Brexit are the quarterwits from the ERG and their twerpish associates who thrice had the opportunity to vote for the Brexit deal and thrice declined to do so. There is not a great deal Remainers can do if Leavers keep voting down their own policy.
    I forget the numbers, would it have passed on the third attempt had they all voted for it?
    MV3 vote failed by 58 votes, so she needed to flip 29 to pass it. 35 Tories voted against. If the ERG had flipped it would have had a majority of 2.
    Were they all ERGers?
    No, there were the Grievers as well. So it would have been very close if the ERG had all folded. The idea more Lab would have come over if it was close is for the birds, some of the possible are revokers rather than supportive of any deal.
    Scott_P said:

    For all the rightly caustic commentary on Mark Francois, could I posit the theory that he's marginally less of a prick than Andrew Bridgen?

    How do fellow PBers feel the battle of Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber shapes up?

    Ranking the ERG in order of stupidity is tricky because the numbers are so huge. When you get that close to infinity the maths breaks down somewhat...
    Without wishing to be unkind I used to think many of the ERG were just incredibly stubborn and holding a different and principled view even though I disagreed with it. But when those who did eventually cave did so on the basis that Brexit was at risk if they did not, something obvious for months and which had been screamed at them for just as long, made me worry that even some of the seemingly smarter ones were anything but, if they had only just realised what would happen if it failed again.

    And they are indeed among the angriest again that Brexit might be super soft or over.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441
    edited April 8
    The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois

    Look at this from Welsh Labour:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418

    “Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Had more lab candidates round my Tory shire in 2017, very fired up and organised too. Didn't work, but maybe next time as they are second in parliamentary now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    I have the Lib Dems contesting 53% (4476 out of 8374) which is up from 46% in 2015.

    This is an excellent database from the Elections Centre, giving all the results from 1973 onwards.

    http://www.electionscentre.co.uk/?page_id=3755

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    edited April 8
    kle4 said:

    Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.

    Channelling the Churchill spirit, 1941-45.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,700
    The implication from the header is that the new members are primarily urban and perhaps of ages where standing as a councillor is seen as an unappealing time sink. Perhaps one should consider that the number disparity will make itself known in canvassing and vote enthusing activity the areas around the (no election) urban areas?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois

    Look at this from Welsh Labour:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418

    “Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.

    Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,205
    Is the contestation of seats or wards?

    e.g.
    1. Is a 1 member rural district ward being given the same weighting as a 3 member suburban ward?
    2. Where Labour are fighting in a 3 member Tory ward with 1 or 2 candidates, is that counted as only partial contestation?

    Whichever way you count it in Districts is likely to give a low number even when a Labour candidate is available to a high percentage of voters.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the contestation of seats or wards?

    e.g.
    1. Is a 1 member rural district ward being given the same weighting as a 3 member suburban ward?
    2. Where Labour are fighting in a 3 member Tory ward with 1 or 2 candidates, is that counted as only partial contestation?

    Whichever way you count it in Districts is likely to give a low number even when a Labour candidate is available to a high percentage of voters.

    Seats.

    If you don't field a full slate, you're letting an opponent get in by default.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,782
    edited April 8
    What a f##king waste of time...

    Jon Snow: Ofcom investigates 'white people' remark at Brexit rally

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47856058

    Snow comment was bloody stupid (and offensive) and clearly Farage didn't mean go beat him up. It is totally standard language to talk about "attacking" a political opponent.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,226
    The more airtime he is given the more ridiculous the Brexit project and its adherents look.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,846
    Scott_P said:
    She is presumably just briefing them on the proposed offer to Labour and gauging their support for it.

    As to pass it will presumably need most Tory MPs to back it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 8
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    GIN1138 said:
    The only people are theolicy.
    I forget the numbers, would it have passed on the third attempt had they all voted for it?
    y of 2.
    Were they all ERGers?
    No, there were the Grievers as well. So it would have been very close if the ERG had all folded. The idea
    Scott_P said:

    For all the rightly

    How do fellow PBers feel the battle of Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber shapes up?

    Ranking the ERG in order of stupidity is tricky because the numbers are so huge. When you get that close to infinity the maths breaks down somewhat...
    Without wishing to be unkind I used to think many of the ERG were just incredibly stubborn and holding a different and principled view even though I disagreed with it. But when those who did eventually cave did so on the basis that Brexit was at risk if they did not, something obvious for months and which had been screamed at them for just as long, made me worry that even some of the seemingly smarter ones were anything but, if they had only just realised what would happen if it failed again.

    And they are indeed among the angriest again that Brexit might be super soft or over.

    And it is more than just a numbers exercise.

    The ERG attacking the Brexit deal before it was even published dented its credibility in the eyes of the public and made it difficult for the government to unite around a positive selling message

    The ERG attacking the deal gave remainers a free pass to do likewise without (just) being accused of not wanting Brexit. And made the Labour opposition's position in voting against easier to justify.

    The ERG attacking the deal gave Labour leavers less reason to so do, particularly when it became obvious that it would be heavily defeated. Breaking with your colleagues to make your mark on history by voting a Brexit deal through is one thing; a futile rebellion to reduce a big government defeat is another. Plenty of commentators including Alan Johnson on last week's TW have said that a larger bloc of Labour MPs was ready to back the deal.

    And their stubborn refusal to compromise with reality has tarnished the entire project and exposed their futile intransigence and relentless whinging negativity to a much wider audience. If the people who wanted Brexit won't vote for it, what's the point?

    Edit/ and of course their own PM lost a lot of credibility and political capital around the world after chalking up such historic Commons defeats.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,226

    kle4 said:

    Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.

    Channelling the Churchill spirit, 1941-45.
    If Brexit were imposed upon Hell......
  • Sean_F said:

    Maybe he'll organise his own indicative vote.
    Wasn't there a piece on here by David H (?) saying that, while it was commonly interpreted that the PM was safe for a year after the vote, the 1922 Committee could change the rules if it felt that the circumstances had changed and the PM had lost sufficient support?

    Maybe MPs have come back after the weekend and realised this is becoming an existential crisis for the Conservative party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,782
    Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Foremain, that comment reminds me a little of (many years ago) when a Christian attacked Dawkins and tried to use that to deride my atheist position.

    Francois is a berk. May is incompetent. Corbyn is incompetent. None of that affects the basic arguments around the EU and staying in or going. There's a perfectly reasonable debate to be had, with legitimate views for and against. There is also a plethora of dingbats wibbling inanely.
  • The more airtime he is given the more ridiculous the Brexit project and its adherents look.
    It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,249
    kle4 said:

    Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.

    The Brexit process presents more as the work of Groucho Marx than that of Karl.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,370

    Mr. Foremain, that comment reminds me a little of (many years ago) when a Christian attacked Dawkins and tried to use that to deride my atheist position.

    Francois is a berk. May is incompetent. Corbyn is incompetent. None of that affects the basic arguments around the EU and staying in or going. There's a perfectly reasonable debate to be had, with legitimate views for and against. There is also a plethora of dingbats wibbling inanely.

    Good afternoon, Mr Dancer. I am coming round to the idea that a very long extension to Brexit is desirable, so that Scottish Independence comes first and we can all see how easy it is to dissolve a really long-term relationship. Once people see it done, they will realise it can be done.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,885
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    She is presumably just briefing them on the proposed offer to Labour and gauging their support for it.

    She will no doubt simply ignore any feedback and do her own thing regardless as she has done every single day since becoming PM.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,131
    On topic: How does Labour's 77% compare with the figure for equivalent elections last time?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    It remains ironic that if the SNP had won their referendum, Scotland would be out of the EU and England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would be in.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 361
    edited April 8
    TGOHF said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    She is presumably just briefing them on the proposed offer to Labour and gauging their support for it.

    She will no doubt simply ignore any feedback and do her own thing regardless as she has done every single day since becoming PM.

    The offer appears to have been made already. 1922 being briefed in retrospect not advance.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    On topic: How does Labour's 77% compare with the figure for equivalent elections last time?

    Labour contested 75% in 2015, and 72% in 2011.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,131
    Sean_F said:

    On topic: How does Labour's 77% compare with the figure for equivalent elections last time?

    Labour contested 75% in 2015, and 72% in 2011.
    Thanks, so no real change.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,885
    Scott_P said:
    That should solve our balance of payments deficit with the EU in a hurry.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    In other words, agreement is pointless because

    A- time moves on and things change and

    B- politically agreement is not achieving what many want, which is to end this not agree it
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,845
    On-topic: Would I be correct in observing that that current control map shows an unusually low number of councils under NOC than most years?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.
    Unless they change their own procedure, they have no power to get rid of her beyond supporting a VoNC in the government.

    What is the procedure for changing the procedure for changing the leader?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    edited April 8
    rpjs said:

    On-topic: Would I be correct in observing that that current control map shows an unusually low number of councils under NOC than most years?

    Yes, the disappearance of the Lib Dems and Condependents from many Shire districts has cut the numbers of NOC authorities. That might change if Residents/Independent groups do well this year.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should solve our balance of payments deficit with the EU in a hurry.
    Yep... and we'll soon be wishing we still had that problem rather than a crashed economy.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,845
    kle4 said:

    In other words, agreement is pointless because

    A- time moves on and things change and

    B- politically agreement is not achieving what many want, which is to end this not agree it
    Best way for a lock to work would require consent of both houses and all three devolved administrations to unlock it. As Labour is unlikely to lose control of Senedd this side of the heat death of the universe it gives them a veto.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,982

    Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.
    Unless they change their own procedure, they have no power to get rid of her beyond supporting a VoNC in the government.

    What is the procedure for changing the procedure for changing the leader?
    It is a decision by the Board of the Conservative party which includes representatives from all parts of the party. May is a member of the Board as PM.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441
    Sean_F said:

    The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois

    Look at this from Welsh Labour:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418

    “Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.

    Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.
    We don’t all think that, actually!

    But, even if you did, the possession of a working brain might suggest that you should not post it on Facebook.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,203
    edited April 8
    all in the wording when trying to make an impact... this implies rather different doesn't it...

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Hopefully...May just can't do the job, it is as simple as that.
    Unless they change their own procedure, they have no power to get rid of her beyond supporting a VoNC in the government.

    What is the procedure for changing the procedure for changing the leader?
    If the 1922 Committee said they wanted a fresh leadership election, they could change their rules by simple majority, before proceeding to the vote.
  • If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Sean_F said:

    The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois

    Look at this from Welsh Labour:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418

    “Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.

    Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.
    We don’t all think that, actually!

    But, even if you did, the possession of a working brain might suggest that you should not post it on Facebook.
    I do wonder if he was drunk at the time.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,205
    The deal carried enough Remainers - Tory, payroll and the few Labour, that I think Tory Brexiters and Lexiters would have been enough to carry it without the Grieve mob, and certainly so if you add them in.

    If we ultimately end up Remaining, the anti-deal Leavers can take pretty much the entire responsibility imho if the swing voter is a Lexiter other than Kate Hoey.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,982

    Sean_F said:

    Maybe he'll organise his own indicative vote.
    Wasn't there a piece on here by David H (?) saying that, while it was commonly interpreted that the PM was safe for a year after the vote, the 1922 Committee could change the rules if it felt that the circumstances had changed and the PM had lost sufficient support?

    Maybe MPs have come back after the weekend and realised this is becoming an existential crisis for the Conservative party.
    My understanding is thst it is not in the hands of the 1922 to change it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    The only way around this is for the government to resign and make Jezza Prime Minister for life - That way there can be another government that can ever implement a policy change on the customs union (or anything else) :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,885

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    That should solve our balance of payments deficit with the EU in a hurry.
    Yep... and we'll soon be wishing we still had that problem rather than a crashed economy.
    We survived 2008 didn't we ?

    Not nearly on the same scale.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    Scott_P said:
    ‪Don’t worry we hold all the cards. ‬
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,486
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    The standard of local politicians is even lower than the abysmal level set by Bridgen-Francois

    Look at this from Welsh Labour:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-47853418

    “Hitler had the right idea, anyone got any gas canisters”, facebooked Cllr Bob Murray.

    Well, we all think that, but it's unwise to say so publicly.
    We don’t all think that, actually!

    But, even if you did, the possession of a working brain might suggest that you should not post it on Facebook.
    I do wonder if he was drunk at the time.
    I'm pretty sure I wouldn't post something like that even when drunk.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    Don’t be harsh on Mark Francois.

    He might have guaranteed flaccid Brexit or no Brexit at all.

    The man deserves a peerage.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 8

    If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?

    Her deal vs Remain might as well be called "The Establishment Stitch Up".To have the option that got 48% of the vote last time vs a portion of the option that got 52%, and that has been widely criticised by the people who campaigned for the 52% winner is so crooked it surely cant even be considered.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,131
    Scott_P said:
    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,039
    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005
    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Remember, it's ok to vote with a marxist when he's on your side.

    The Brexit process presents more as the work of Groucho Marx than that of Karl.
    Steady on. Groucho was sharp, intelligent and quick-witted.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 44,557

    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.

    They are saying it again, live on TV
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,977
    Scott_P said:

    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.

    They are saying it again, live on TV
    We've obviously got them on the run.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    GIN1138 said:

    The only way around this is for the government to resign and make Jezza Prime Minister for life - That way there can be another government that can ever implement a policy change on the customs union (or anything else) :D
    How stupid are the Labour Brexit team?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,528

    Scott_P said:
    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
    To many Brexiters (and, up until a few months ago, May), every day that the EU sticks to their clearly-stated position is a cause to be surprised anew. I only wish I weren't so jaded, so that I could see the world with that same childlike sense of wonderment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    edited April 8

    Scott_P said:

    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.

    They are saying it again, live on TV
    We've obviously got them on the run.
    I’m not worried.

    David Davis will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977

    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    It remains ironic that if the SNP had won their referendum, Scotland would be out of the EU and England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would be in.

    Have you made that point before? I can't quite recall..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules.

    I think I've spotted the flaw in your argument.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,977

    Scott_P said:

    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.

    They are saying it again, live on TV
    We've obviously got them on the run.
    I’m not worried.

    David David will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.
    If not, we'll just take our business to Oklahoma.
  • isam said:

    If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?

    Her deal vs Remain might as well be called "The Establishment Stitch Up".To have the option that got 48% of the vote last time vs a portion of the option that got 52%, and that has been widely criticised by the people who campaigned for the 52% winner is so crooked it surely cant even be considered.

    It has certainly been mentioned as a possibility, so I imagine it would be under consideration by May. This is, of course, part of the problem with a second referendum - what will the question be? I seriously doubt that (unless a so-called confirmatory vote is appended to a successful Con-Lab agreement) this parliament could agree a question or an electorate.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387

    Scott_P said:
    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
    True but you can't say repeating and most people forget things as soon as the next story arrives...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012

    It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.

    FWIW I would rank the blocking factions as below in order from least bad to baddest:

    1. The Opposition - the clue is in the name.
    2. The DUP - the clue is in the name.
    3. The ERG - utterly nuts to vote down Brexit in the name of a mythical pure version of it.
    4. The Grievers - voting against their own govt AND the Ref, and lying about the reason.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936

    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.

    Most rules are pretty "fluid" - Just look at FTPA for example. ;)
  • kinabalu said:

    It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.

    FWIW I would rank the blocking factions as below in order from least bad to baddest:

    1. The Opposition - the clue is in the name.
    2. The DUP - the clue is in the name.
    3. The ERG - utterly nuts to vote down Brexit in the name of a mythical pure version of it.
    4. The Grievers - voting against their own govt AND the Ref, and lying about the reason.
    Not an unreasonable list at all (though full of unreasonable people!). I'd agree with that.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 423
    One of the things Labour are trying to achieve is to lock in some social and economic policies by international treaty rather than democratic mandate. Aren't they confident they will form at least some future governments?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977

    Scott_P said:

    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.

    They are saying it again, live on TV
    We've obviously got them on the run.
    I’m not worried.

    David David will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.
    I quite like the idea of David David, got a Major Major ring to it.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,193
    GIN1138 said:

    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.

    Most rules are pretty "fluid" - Just look at FTPA for example. ;)
    And how did the Tories playing silly beggars with the FTPA work out for them in 2017?
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    isam said:

    If the Con-Lab talks end in failure (which is probably the most likely option as both sides have too much to lose by going for it) and Cooper-Boles passes (again very likely). What do people think that May will give the EU as her reason for a long extension as it is then clear that this parliament cannot pass any Withdrawal Agreement? Referendum on her deal vs remain; General Election; more time to prepare for No Deal; Revoke (not that that one needs an extension)?

    Her deal vs Remain might as well be called "The Establishment Stitch Up".To have the option that got 48% of the vote last time vs a portion of the option that got 52%, and that has been widely criticised by the people who campaigned for the 52% winner is so crooked it surely cant even be considered.

    It has certainly been mentioned as a possibility, so I imagine it would be under consideration by May. This is, of course, part of the problem with a second referendum - what will the question be? I seriously doubt that (unless a so-called confirmatory vote is appended to a successful Con-Lab agreement) this parliament could agree a question or an electorate.
    It would be like a referendum between Leave and EU membership minus Freedom of Movement - People who want to Remain with FOM would be disenfranchised
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,011

    Scott_P said:
    ‪Don’t worry we hold all the cards. ‬
    Isn't that effectively the WA?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275

    Scott_P said:

    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.

    They are saying it again, live on TV
    We've obviously got them on the run.
    I’m not worried.

    David David will negotiate us an awesome Anglo-German trade deal.
    I quite like the idea of David David, got a Major Major ring to it.
    Pretty certain PP called him that in my bet for next Con leader
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.

    That was a breaking point for me, when Rees-Mogg behaved like a child and demanded she must go despite winning the vote and making up his own constitutional norms to explain why she should not stay despite winning under the rules.

    And I agreed with the basic premise that May should have been removed before then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Divvie, I have, for the benefit of people who are new, and those who don't keep a running tab on what every poster here has said.

    Whilst I'm at it, your records should include my excellent tips on Button with the 2009 title at 70/1, and Verstappen to win the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix at 250/1, quite possibly the PB record for longest winning tip.

    And my new book, Crown of Blood, came out a couple of days ago, so ensure you've acquired your own copy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    Don’t be harsh on Mark Francois.

    He might have guaranteed flaccid Brexit or no Brexit at all.

    The man deserves a peerage.
    I think it would be hilarious to see him and Baker et al be offered a prize about European integration or the like.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    all in the wording when trying to make an impact... this implies rather different doesn't it...

    It's got a slight Great Escape feel to it. Either that or SMERSH.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    This should be the last government crippled for action by the FTPA, it's due for review next year and I'd be astonished if it survives
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    It remains ironic that if the SNP had won their referendum, Scotland would be out of the EU and England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would be in.

    MD, we would have been back in EU by now, laughing our socks off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    GIN1138 said:

    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.

    Most rules are pretty "fluid" - Just look at FTPA for example. ;)
    And how did the Tories playing silly beggars with the FTPA work out for them in 2017?
    Not well but they didn't play silly buggers with it at all, they followed it precisely regarding the provisions allowing early election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    edited April 8
    kinabalu said:

    It's worth remembering that Vote Leave (and particularly Cummings) recognised this and tried their level best to keep the most recalcitrant members of the ERG in their box. It is so sad for those of us who want to see Brexit delivered that the ERG may well have destroyed the prospects for ever. They are far from wholly responsible, there have many who have been trying to frustrate Brexit, it's just that they have frustrated Brexit in the name of Brexit.

    FWIW I would rank the blocking factions as below in order from least bad to baddest:

    1. The Opposition - the clue is in the name.
    2. The DUP - the clue is in the name.
    3. The ERG - utterly nuts to vote down Brexit in the name of a mythical pure version of it.
    4. The Grievers - voting against their own govt AND the Ref, and lying about the reason.
    Clearly if you're a Tory Leaver you are not going to like Grieve and his allies. There is though, a logic and consistency in his opposition which the ERG nutcases totally lack.

    Therefore, the ERG should be placed some way below the bottom of the list.

    (Edit: IMHO)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    When the superbrains behind the ERG launched their VONC bid against TMay in December they must, one assumes, have known the rules. If their effort to oust her failed then she'd be immune from a challenge for 12 months.

    But isn't that like the speaker and another MV? If the HoC decides to change the rules then it can do so?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,011

    Scott_P said:
    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
    Not quite. My interpretation of that is once we have left without a WA, the substantial document that was the WA could be re-negotiated so we could then get an agreement which would clear the Commons and enable us to discuss trade and other areas from outside the EU.

    So if I was in the ERG or DUP, I'd say "let's crash out and next week we'll ask for re-negotiation of the previous WA which. with backstop items resolved, the Conservative Govenrment will get through the Commons and we can talk trade - over to you, Liam"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005
    edited April 8

    Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?

    After extensive study...they don't like it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?

    It's on the other side of the Channel.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?

    They have discovered that the EU have rather a lot of cards of their own?

    Or that, no actually, they don't need us more than we need them?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. G, if you'd voted to leave in 2014, Cameron wouldn't've offered a referendum in 2016.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 44,557

    Anyone ever discovered what "research" the ERG has unearthed on Europe?

    We are an island.

    Calais-Dover is REALLY important
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Scott_P said:
    ...then revoke, after a Ref2 rejects leaving with the only Deal we were ever going to get.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,131
    edited April 8
    stodge said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bit of a stretch to label that 'Breaking', given that they've been saying that for yonks.
    Not quite. My interpretation of that is once we have left without a WA, the substantial document that was the WA could be re-negotiated so we could then get an agreement which would clear the Commons and enable us to discuss trade and other areas from outside the EU.

    So if I was in the ERG or DUP, I'd say "let's crash out and next week we'll ask for re-negotiation of the previous WA which. with backstop items resolved, the Conservative Govenrment will get through the Commons and we can talk trade - over to you, Liam"
    So you think it will be easier to start again and reach a deal which requires unanimous formal ratification by 27 countries rather than being agreed by QMV in the European Council?
This discussion has been closed.