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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    First - again!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,243
    Second
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    MPs are defecting from the party within a party back to the party. Well I never.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Still under estimating things I see.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

    One hell of a shellacking is on the way...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Noteworthy that this is almost like resigning from a party.
    Not really. The hardcore is less than 30 and max 60 committed to ERG
    The noteworthiness is that membership of the ERG seems stronger to some of its members than being members of the Tories. They no doubt argue, not without some cause, that they represent a very large strand of Tory member opinion, but nevertheless they are definitely more committed to the ERG whip than the Tory whip. Thus it is actually significant that someone might choose to quit the group, especially since the point you make is true, there is a looser group beyond the hardcore, which means he could have stayed in it even though he has decided he wanted the MV to pass - after all, even its Chairman caved and voted for that last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

    One hell of a shellacking is on the way...

    Where there are elections, they will stand. You stand in no hoper seats in parliamentaries and locals, but you stand nonetheless.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Noteworthy that this is almost like resigning from a party.
    Not really. The hardcore is less than 30 and max 60 committed to ERG
    The noteworthiness is that membership of the ERG seems stronger to some of its members than being members of the Tories. They no doubt argue, not without some cause, that they represent a very large strand of Tory member opinion, but nevertheless they are definitely more committed to the ERG whip than the Tory whip. Thus it is actually significant that someone might choose to quit the group, especially since the point you make is true, there is a looser group beyond the hardcore, which means he could have stayed in it even though he has decided he wanted the MV to pass - after all, even its Chairman caved and voted for that last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

    One hell of a shellacking is on the way...

    Where there are elections, they will stand. You stand in no hoper seats in parliamentaries and locals, but you stand nonetheless.
    And because there's now a fair chance of their serving their full term.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Scott_P said:
    Another in a line of reports of 'X gives explanation which might help sell it to their party, but which makes it harder for Y to sell it to theirs'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 8
    GIN1138 said:

    Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

    One hell of a shellacking is on the way...

    As they can get 1 MEP in many regions on just 8% of the vote under PR
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    It would be ironic if PR should rescue the Tories from MEP wipeout.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 8
    Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con... ;)

    We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    That doesn't really look like an acceptable net positive v net negative poll, more a poll on which one voters may favour
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Scott_P said:
    Since when has the Govt. been confident of anything when it comes to MPs?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,498
    Change UK could do very well in the Euro elections if the winnable seats on the Labour lists all turn out to be occupied by names on the Momentum slate, as I think they will be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    Scott_P said:
    Since when has the Govt. been confident of anything when it comes to MPs?
    Especially if she does indeed give them a free vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    Scott_P said:
    Since when has the Govt. been confident of anything when it comes to MPs?
    Well, they can confidently state 90% of them are useless wankers.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting
    Collapsing is a little over the top, minus 2 and minus 3
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897
    I don't want to Change UK, I'm not looking for a New England.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 8
    Bill Cash is blowing his top in the Commons.

    Reduced to quoting Cromwell. Can a Tory sink any lower?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 508
    So basically all outcomes no matter the extreme are all roughly as popular? That seems helpful.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    I don't want to Change UK, I'm not looking for a New England.
    Is that not your Maine aspiration?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    GIN1138 said:

    Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con... ;)

    We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
    9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

    Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

    So Con 18% is what we're looking for! :D

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    edited April 8
    I thought they were seeking to be called 'Change UK - The Independent Group'.

    Bad news for them, googling CHange Uk still comes up with the petition site.

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting
    Collapsing is a little over the top, minus 2 and minus 3
    Also it is only the lowest in 4 years. Was not a disaster for some.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,039
    IanB2 said:

    Bill Cash is blowing his top in the Commons.

    Reduced to quoting Cromwell. Can a Tory sink any lower?

    Yep, they could meet with Corbyn,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con... ;)

    We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
    9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

    Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

    So Con 18% is what we're looking for! :D

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
    Am I right in thinking Labour's lowest score under Mr No More Boom and Bust was 22%?

    So that's another mark to beat...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    I see Alan Sked has founded a new party, Prosper UK. I seem to recall him announcing his intention to do so a little while ago. How many UKIP offshoots is that now?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7985
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    37% of Labour voters would not trust the Labour Party to manage defence policy - ComRes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    TIG/Change Uk claims to be interviewing for its MEP slates this week, and says it has various former MPs and MEPs who have applied. Which is somewhat mysterious. I have no interest in standing for the EP but registered as a TIG supporter the day after their launch. I have seen nothing from them asking for applications to be an election candidate and there is nothing about this whatsoever on their website. Where and how have they got all these applications from?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    kle4 said:

    I thought they were seeking to be called 'Change UK - The Independent Group'.

    Bad news for them, googling CHange Uk still comes up with the petition site.

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting
    Collapsing is a little over the top, minus 2 and minus 3
    Also it is only the lowest in 4 years. Was not a disaster for some.
    A lot of polls in 2014/15 gave very low combined shares for the big two.

    Oddly, a surge in support for UKIP was combined with a surge in support for EU membership, which peaked with a MORI poll giving Remain a 66/22% lead.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 8
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con... ;)

    We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
    9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

    Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

    So Con 18% is what we're looking for! :D

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
    Am I right in thinking Labour's lowest score under Mr No More Boom and Bust was 22%?

    So that's another mark to beat...
    Labour went down to 18% with MORI on 31st May 2009 in the midst of the expense's scandal (and this Brexit debacle is starting to looks a LOT like expenses on steroids IMO)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,089
    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976
    VP betting post:

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con... ;)

    We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
    9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

    Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

    So Con 18% is what we're looking for! :D

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
    Am I right in thinking Labour's lowest score under Mr No More Boom and Bust was 22%?

    So that's another mark to beat...
    Labour went down to 18% with MORI on 31st May 2009 in the midst of the expense's scandal (and this Brexit debacle is starting to looks a LOT like expenses on steroids IMO)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
    OK, thanks.

    So for both, 18% or less is the target.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,249
    Just seen the Melissa Kite vs Peter Oborne chit chat on C4 News. Dear me, with media outriders as hopeless as the risible Kite working for them, no longer the Brexiteers are fucked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143

    VP betting post:

    image

    I suppose Bernie might consider them!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 8
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
    Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    MPs are arguing about the Cooper Bill, the Cash wrecking amendment, and the stuff from the Lords. Very ill tempered, more heat than light.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    I think you know.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,845
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
    Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.
    Deltapoll had 42% of Tories backing Deal plus Customs Union without the 'long delay' added on
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    rpjs said:
    The Tiggers have not been unbounced since they Changed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,243
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
    Correction. ERG are done for
  • I don't want to Change UK, I'm not looking for a New England.
    You're much like Change UK then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    I’ve just lost a follower and been blocked by an ultra-hard Brexiteer on Twitter for congratulating Dan K for resigning from the ERG to support May’s Deal.

    She said, “bottled it”, and then instantly blocked me.

    Brave.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976
    IanB2 said:

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    MPs are arguing about the Cooper Bill, the Cash wrecking amendment, and the stuff from the Lords. Very ill tempered, more heat than light.
    It’s quite entertaining. Cash and Redwood seem to think the withdrawal agreement is going to be foisted on them. Little do they know...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    edited April 8
    Remain looks like a clear winner there to me :wink:
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,089
    kle4 said:

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    I think you know.
    That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
    Correction. ERG are done for
    You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

    Sorry Big G you've all had it. :D
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,368
    @ydoethur FPT: I can't imagine "Meekness and Majesty" being in his repertoire either, meekness not being Mr Francois's strong suit. "Feckless and Tragedy", perhaps.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,243

    kle4 said:

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    I think you know.
    That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.
    Neither revoke or no deal are happening
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
    When are you going to tell the party what the CU costs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    kle4 said:

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    I think you know.
    That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.
    No PM, privy to all the briefings that they will have received, would ever decide to crash out without a deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    @ydoethur FPT: I can't imagine "Meekness and Majesty" being in his repertoire either, meekness not being Mr Francois's strong suit. "Feckless and Tragedy", perhaps.

    There will certainly be no Rumours of Angels where he's concerned, although there are ample thorns in the straw.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,243
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
    Correction. ERG are done for
    You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

    Sorry Big G you've all had it. :D
    As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 8
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
    Correction. ERG are done for
    You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

    Sorry Big G you've all had it. :D
    As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future
    Your becoming as extreme as JRM! :D
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 1,760
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
    Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.
    Deltapoll had 42% of Tories backing Deal plus Customs Union without the 'long delay' added on
    The Deltapoll was a blatant outlier though...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
    Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.
    Deltapoll had 42% of Tories backing Deal plus Customs Union without the 'long delay' added on
    The Deltapoll was a blatant outlier though...
    Not really, it had No Deal ahead amongst Tories just like Comres
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really stuck with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did,.

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2012 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
    The more you look at it, the less sense it makes for Labour to get involved in any of this. The Tories are collapsing Brexit all by themselves. And will take most of the blame.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,039
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

    I think you know.
    That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.
    No PM, privy to all the briefings that they will have received, would ever decide to crash out without a deal.
    Correct. Absolutely the right judgement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 8

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
    The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
    When are you going to tell the party what the CU costs?
    I prefer May's Deal to Deal plus Customs Union as do most Tories but the latter is still better than revoke or EUref2 which the Commons would vote for over No Deal plus you can still do Deals on services with a CU even if not on goods
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,243
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
    Correction. ERG are done for
    You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

    Sorry Big G you've all had it. :D
    As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future
    Your becoming as extreme as JRM! :D
    There is nothing extreme in wanting ERG slain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 8
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
    Not what the latest polls show, all conducted after May's further extension announcement, 2 have the Tories ahead by 1 point, the other Labour and the Tories tied.


    It is minor parties benefiting not Labour as No Deal Leavers go to UKIP and the Brexit Party and pro Revoke or EUref2 Remainers go to the LDs or CUK
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,368
    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur FPT: I can't imagine "Meekness and Majesty" being in his repertoire either, meekness not being Mr Francois's strong suit. "Feckless and Tragedy", perhaps.

    There will certainly be no Rumours of Angels where he's concerned, although there are ample thorns in the straw.
    Perhaps fortunately I don't know that one!

    (Our church's Graham Kendrick repertoire is pretty much frozen in time at the point when I became organist and refused to add any more. I will occasionally indulge the happy-clappies with a Stuart Townend or something, which is marginally more palatable...)
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 361
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
    Failure to deliver Brexit will hurt the Tories? I'm a Tory, and I can tell you that if TM Revoked tomorrow and promised that we would never ever _ever_ hear the ******* word Brexit again, we'd be at 40%+ with the relief of a grateful nation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
    Not what the latest polls show, all conducted after May's further extension announcement, 2 have the Tories ahead by 1 point, the other Labour and the Tories tied.


    It is minor parties benefiting not Labour as No Deal Leavers go to UKIP and the Brexit Party and pro Revoke or EUref2 Remainers go to the LDs or CUK
    But, the vote is being split between minor parties, rather than any one minor party benefitting. Which means that the big two will sail on serenely in any election decided by FPTP.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
    Tories are done for! :D
    Correction. ERG are done for
    You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

    Sorry Big G you've all had it. :D
    As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future
    Your becoming as extreme as JRM! :D
    There is nothing extreme in wanting ERG slain.
    Sir, you are an immoderate anti-extremist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    Almost everyone kicking up a fuss about Cooper/Letwin in the Commons is someone who has repeatedly voted down the Brexit agreement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

    People are really pissed off.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 8
    DavidL said:

    There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

    People are really pissed off.

    If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 361
    DavidL said:

    There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

    People are really pissed off.

    The really shocking news is that AOL still exists.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    Commons now voting on the Lords Amendments. First one carried, no opposition. Amendments 2&3 together go to division.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,440
    When is the Cooper vote?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
    Not what the latest polls show, all conducted after May's further extension announcement, 2 have the Tories ahead by 1 point, the other Labour and the Tories tied.


    It is minor parties benefiting not Labour as No Deal Leavers go to UKIP and the Brexit Party and pro Revoke or EUref2 Remainers go to the LDs or CUK
    But, the vote is being split between minor parties, rather than any one minor party benefitting. Which means that the big two will sail on serenely in any election decided by FPTP.
    For the moment, if we ended up with Revoke and no Brexit at all (never mind soft Brexit or even EUref2) we could see Leavers surge to Farage`s new Brexit Party
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 361
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

    People are really pissed off.

    If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016
    Then why didn't the Conservative landslide materialize? Translating the Leave vote to FPTP should have 2017 unlosable. But it wasn't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,908
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

    People are really pissed off.

    If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016
    You could be right. I don’t think that remainers or our remainer dominated media are close to understanding how angry people are getting about this. Do what you were f******* told.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    John Redwood on the possibility we might not exit with No Deal after all: "business now, in many cases, feels very let down that they are not being able to use all their contingencies, which they have spent good money on."

    What planet is he on?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    blueblue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

    May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

    May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

    And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

    Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
    Failure to deliver Brexit will hurt the Tories? I'm a Tory, and I can tell you that if TM Revoked tomorrow and promised that we would never ever _ever_ hear the ******* word Brexit again, we'd be at 40%+ with the relief of a grateful nation.
    Remainers possibly - I'm sure the losers would love to become the winners.

    Leavers would be less impressed at being winners becoming losers...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

    People are really pissed off.

    If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016
    That would be amusing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 8
    Scott_P said:

    Yet the Tories still lead 2/3 of the latest polls and are tied in the other
This discussion has been closed.