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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin, forcing Article 50 to be delayed, is enacted an

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  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:
    And Ireland itself will accept 5 years? Somehow I doubt it.
    Little Leo will do what the Boss tells him... :D
    Really? They have a veto and I suspect they would use it as the Backstop = Good Friday Agreement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.

    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July (although not as much as the scenario where we need them but haven't elected any!), and the WA they refuse to amend won't go through Parliament.

    Something has to give, and it has to be this week because of the election timing. I'm not sure the EU are as prepared for a no-deal outcome as they make out, so a tweak to the backstop sufficient to get it through Parliament has to be the best option.

    Where does my logic go wrong, except to think that the EU might show some logic?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:
    And Ireland itself will accept 5 years? Somehow I doubt it.
    Merkel probably on balance thinks giving the 5 years and an early resolution and certainty is preferable to a 9 month extension, an EU parly full of Farage and the prospect of Raab/Mercer coming back after an autumn election with a bigger majority gun or PM Corbyn with his demands for red Unicorns half in half out.

    Would keep the DUP onside and prevent a Uk GE.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    This set of polls might focus minds amongst the Democrats.

    Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 52, Trump 48 Biden +4
    Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 51, Sanders 49 Trump +2
    Nevada: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 51, Harris 49 Trump +2
    Nevada: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 54, Warren 46 Trump +8
    Nevada: Trump vs. Buttigieg Emerson Trump 52, Buttigieg 48 Trump +4
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:
    And Ireland itself will accept 5 years? Somehow I doubt it.
    Little Leo will do what the Boss tells him... :D
    Really? They have a veto and I suspect they would use it as the Backstop = Good Friday Agreement.
    Lol good one.

    Can anyone imagine Leo being the one to veto anything in the EU ? He's up to his eyeballs in debt and staring down the gun of new EU wide taxes.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF said:

    interesting snippet in this latest call for the cabinet to grow a pair.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/the-cabinet-must-tell-may-to-go.html


    "Expect soon to hear a new form of that old talk about a Conservative-UKIP alliance – this time round, of a Tory-Brexit Party pact."

    Is that code for Nigel Farage wanting to be wanted?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,761
    Scott_P said:
    When I was door=knocking in Battersea last year, my impression was that lots of Labour members had no idea what they were doing. Instead of dispersing, and having one or two people working a street, you'd see a whole group of them turning up on someone's doorstep.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.

    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July (although not as much as the scenario where we need them but haven't elected any!), and the WA they refuse to amend won't go through Parliament.

    Something has to give, and it has to be this week because of the election timing. I'm not sure the EU are as prepared for a no-deal outcome as they make out, so a tweak to the backstop sufficient to get it through Parliament has to be the best option.

    Where does my logic go wrong, except to think that the EU might show some logic?
    Because parliament looks close to approving either a softer Brexit or the current WA with a confirmatory referendum, both of which the EU would prefer to a WA which breaches their red lines. Plus parliament also looks willing to go a long way to avert a no deal which reduces the risk of it happening
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    OT fun (but voodoo) ranked-choice presidential poll:
    https://rcv-app.firebaseapp.com/poll/-LbZO2dSxNVSEkBDEDRV/ballot

    Currently the final round, after 16 eliminations, is:
    Buttigieg 50.6%
    Bernie: 31.1%
    Beto 18.3%

    Biden not really figuring, even after you apply the "your name has to begin with B" rule and eliminate everyone else.

    There was an interesting radio prog in the very early hours a couple of weeks ago between James Naughtie and Rhod Sharp who as youngsters were both reporters together in New York. Now well into middle age they were looking at possibe Democratic candidates.

    One was pretty certain it would be won by the man with the unpronouncable name from Indiana and the other thought it would go to Beto O'Rourke who he had just interviewed. Thanks for reminding me to have a bet and giving me the name of the unpronouncable one.
    Certainly worth a couple of quid on Bettigieg imho. I have been on for some time, since Axelrod put out a tweet about the guy being really good.
    Whichever of the two of them it was thought the same. I was less impressed with the Beto O'Rourke suggestion because it looked less like a tip than a way of slipping in that he'd just interviewed him!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,761
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Have there been any recent polls for Leave/Remain? Surely 'Remain' must by now have enough of a lead to make a second referendum sound like the democratic thing to do.

    There were 60 odd in 2015, 86% of them had Remain winning and the average margin was 8%

    Maybe the referendum vote was an outlier!! :D
    Remain leads by 4 -5% on average, at the moment, although much depends on how you ask the question.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    When I was door=knocking in Battersea last year, my impression was that lots of Labour members had no idea what they were doing. Instead of dispersing, and having one or two people working a street, you'd see a whole group of them turning up on someone's doorstep.
    The Momentumescents do seem to have got the campaigning bug here, though it's as much market stall campaigning (where they can set up en masse) as their beloved hashtag #LabourDoorstep. But I think they're going to do well on May 2nd. I'm not too confident in OGH's prediction of the previous thread that "The Tories have most to defend and look set to make some losses though mostly to the LDs", sadly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Pulpstar said:

    This set of polls might focus minds amongst the Democrats.

    Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 52, Trump 48 Biden +4
    Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 51, Sanders 49 Trump +2
    Nevada: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 51, Harris 49 Trump +2
    Nevada: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 54, Warren 46 Trump +8
    Nevada: Trump vs. Buttigieg Emerson Trump 52, Buttigieg 48 Trump +4

    Pretty meaningless at this stage of the contest, though it may be slightly interesting that Harris and Buttigieg are showing relatively well despite being considerably less well known than Biden and Saunders (ie many people will not yet be aware of their existence).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.

    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July (although not as much as the scenario where we need them but haven't elected any!), and the WA they refuse to amend won't go through Parliament.

    Something has to give, and it has to be this week because of the election timing. I'm not sure the EU are as prepared for a no-deal outcome as they make out, so a tweak to the backstop sufficient to get it through Parliament has to be the best option.

    Where does my logic go wrong, except to think that the EU might show some logic?
    Because parliament looks close to approving either a softer Brexit or the current WA with a confirmatory referendum, both of which the EU would prefer to a WA which breaches their red lines. Plus parliament also looks willing to go a long way to avert a no deal which reduces the risk of it happening
    Things the EU want

    certainty
    Brexit resolved
    An EU parliament Farage free.

    Holding the Uk in as a sullen awkward prisoner is not good for the EU long term. Merkel is nothing but a pragmatist.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.

    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July (although not as much as the scenario where we need them but haven't elected any!), and the WA they refuse to amend won't go through Parliament.

    Something has to give, and it has to be this week because of the election timing. I'm not sure the EU are as prepared for a no-deal outcome as they make out, so a tweak to the backstop sufficient to get it through Parliament has to be the best option.

    Where does my logic go wrong, except to think that the EU might show some logic?
    Because parliament looks close to approving either a softer Brexit or the current WA with a confirmatory referendum, both of which the EU would prefer to a WA which breaches their red lines. Plus parliament also looks willing to go a long way to avert a no deal which reduces the risk of it happening
    Things the EU want

    certainty
    Brexit resolved
    An EU parliament Farage free.

    Holding the Uk in as a sullen awkward prisoner is not good for the EU long term. Merkel is nothing but a pragmatist.
    This exact same rumor about Merkel circulated in January too. It's not happening
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    For a back bench MP out of favour with her party's leadership it is indeed. Assessments of her capability based on the fiasco of HIPs perhaps need to be revisited.
    As you grow older your education account develops, miistake by mistake, until in later life you gain wisdom and look back at some of your previous decisions in horror.

    Hips and Yvette come into that category. I actually had considerable involvement with HIPS at the time and Yvette just would not listen to advice coming from many in the industry.
    In Scotland, because the SNP can never admit a mistake, we still have them. In fairness it kept a lot of surveyor firms going after 2008, all those delicious and pointless fees and repeat fees for so little work.
    The problem for Suevyors is that what they really want to do is provide expert advice - something of value for a relevant fee. Providing nonsense tick box reports which can be completed by trainees is not a way to promote a profession.
    Have you heard about the home energy efficiency reports that have to be done to allow you to rent out properties? The assessment idea is good, but the software tool used to capture data on the property and then calculate the scoring doesn't have options to allow the latest EU approved highly efficient electric radiators. These have complex programming capability and PIR sensors so they are only on when required and use much less energy than the previous generation. The issue is that if you fit them you will not get the necessary score to allow you to rent unless you get a temporary exemption. Methinks the regulations were not reviewed by someone senior enough to point out that flexibility for new technology should be built in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.

    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July (although not as much as the scenario where we need them but haven't elected any!), and the WA they refuse to amend won't go through Parliament.

    Something has to give, and it has to be this week because of the election timing. I'm not sure the EU are as prepared for a no-deal outcome as they make out, so a tweak to the backstop sufficient to get it through Parliament has to be the best option.

    Where does my logic go wrong, except to think that the EU might show some logic?
    Because parliament looks close to approving either a softer Brexit or the current WA with a confirmatory referendum, both of which the EU would prefer to a WA which breaches their red lines. Plus parliament also looks willing to go a long way to avert a no deal which reduces the risk of it happening
    Parliament look unable to pass anything positively this week though, and if it's not resolved one way or another this week then we're going into the MEP elections. I'm not sure the EU want to kick the can much longer, especially if it means a bunch of recalcitrant MEP's messing up business in Brussels while not setting the Brexit issue that allows them to move on to other things (like averting a major EZ recession).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The monarch is the latest enemy of the people.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115519090876190721?s=21

    For a group of people who claim to love Britain, there doesn't seem to be much about it that they want to leave standing.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Have there been any recent polls for Leave/Remain? Surely 'Remain' must by now have enough of a lead to make a second referendum sound like the democratic thing to do.

    There were 60 odd in 2015, 86% of them had Remain winning and the average margin was 8%

    Maybe the referendum vote was an outlier!! :D
    Remain leads by 4 -5% on average, at the moment, although much depends on how you ask the question.
    Does anyone know if phone or online polls performed better in 2016. I think it would be much harder to find your normal leave voter. You have the politically active vocal leave supporters but they might make up 1% of the 17400000 voters.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.

    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July (although not as much as the scenario where we need them but haven't elected any!), and the WA they refuse to amend won't go through Parliament.

    Something has to give, and it has to be this week because of the election timing. I'm not sure the EU are as prepared for a no-deal outcome as they make out, so a tweak to the backstop sufficient to get it through Parliament has to be the best option.

    Where does my logic go wrong, except to think that the EU might show some logic?
    Because parliament looks close to approving either a softer Brexit or the current WA with a confirmatory referendum, both of which the EU would prefer to a WA which breaches their red lines. Plus parliament also looks willing to go a long way to avert a no deal which reduces the risk of it happening
    Things the EU want

    certainty
    Brexit resolved
    An EU parliament Farage free.

    Holding the Uk in as a sullen awkward prisoner is not good for the EU long term. Merkel is nothing but a pragmatist.
    This exact same rumor about Merkel circulated in January too. It's not happening
    Things have moved on since then

    https://www.fxstreet.com/news/german-flash-manufacturing-pmi-hits-6-year-lows-of-447-in-march-eur-drops-sharply-201903220832

    The German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped deeper into contraction territory and arrived at 44.7 versus 48.0 expected and 47.6 previous. Meanwhile, services PMI dropped to a two-month low level of 54.9 as against previous months reading of 55.3 and 54.8 anticipated.

    Uncertainty and risk is not what Mrs Merkel wants.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Personal note; at last, after a week, BT have fixed my new faster broadband. Download 48.5, upload 9.
    Not entirely their fault; they appear to have been let down by a sub-contractor, although of course.......
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
    Women will get their hair cut like schoolboys and say its the right thing to do, marrying fat Norwich City fans will be de rigueur. What times!
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    When I was door=knocking in Battersea last year, my impression was that lots of Labour members had no idea what they were doing. Instead of dispersing, and having one or two people working a street, you'd see a whole group of them turning up on someone's doorstep.
    The Momentumescents do seem to have got the campaigning bug here, though it's as much market stall campaigning (where they can set up en masse) as their beloved hashtag #LabourDoorstep. But I think they're going to do well on May 2nd. I'm not too confident in OGH's prediction of the previous thread that "The Tories have most to defend and look set to make some losses though mostly to the LDs", sadly.
    It's going to be 2017 ish again. Labour will do better in remain areas, and Cons will hold their own in a depressed vote for both labour and conservatives in leave areas. Canvassing shows con vote staying for leavers in my experience in northern leave area. Like with like, no movement (i'm as shocked as you).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.
    You might think that, but I wouldn't put it past them to think of a way in which we'll get to the end of the week and still won't know what's going to happen.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
    All the way until she is voted out and signs up for Strictly Come Dancing..
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    When I was door=knocking in Battersea last year, my impression was that lots of Labour members had no idea what they were doing. Instead of dispersing, and having one or two people working a street, you'd see a whole group of them turning up on someone's doorstep.
    The Momentumescents do seem to have got the campaigning bug here, though it's as much market stall campaigning (where they can set up en masse) as their beloved hashtag #LabourDoorstep. But I think they're going to do well on May 2nd. I'm not too confident in OGH's prediction of the previous thread that "The Tories have most to defend and look set to make some losses though mostly to the LDs", sadly.
    Locally Labour are trying to make the local elections a national / brexit poll as they have done so badly locally they really need to be replaced.

    Whether that happens is a different matter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,743

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    I've always meant to ask you what first attracted you to thin skinned, touchy overreactor Dan Hannan.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    The monarch is the latest enemy of the people.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115519090876190721?s=21

    For a group of people who claim to love Britain, there doesn't seem to be much about it that they want to leave standing.
    They are such nutters that I suspect they thought the Sovereign was going to declare martial law and Mark Francois was going to go into the HoC with a funny hat on firing a pistol in the air
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    OT fun (but voodoo) ranked-choice presidential poll:
    https://rcv-app.firebaseapp.com/poll/-LbZO2dSxNVSEkBDEDRV/ballot

    Currently the final round, after 16 eliminations, is:
    Buttigieg 50.6%
    Bernie: 31.1%
    Beto 18.3%

    Biden not really figuring, even after you apply the "your name has to begin with B" rule and eliminate everyone else.

    With Andrew Yang in fourth place, I think we can assume the voting to be >slightly< skewed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    I've always meant to ask you what first attracted you to thin skinned, touchy overreactor Dan Hannan.
    Hmm not sure. Possibly the fact we both have the wit and intelligence that you clearly lack. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. I will think on it and come back to insult you some more later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Scott_P said:
    Would give you a strong incentive to get out, though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,743
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    I've always meant to ask you what first attracted you to thin skinned, touchy overreactor Dan Hannan.
    Hmm not sure. Possibly the fact we both have the wit and intelligence that you clearly lack. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. I will think on it and come back to insult you some more later.
    I'm quite happy to agree that you have the wit and intelligence (and possibly even the debonair good looks) of Hannan.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Nigelb said:

    OT fun (but voodoo) ranked-choice presidential poll:
    https://rcv-app.firebaseapp.com/poll/-LbZO2dSxNVSEkBDEDRV/ballot

    Currently the final round, after 16 eliminations, is:
    Buttigieg 50.6%
    Bernie: 31.1%
    Beto 18.3%

    Biden not really figuring, even after you apply the "your name has to begin with B" rule and eliminate everyone else.

    With Andrew Yang in fourth place, I think we can assume the voting to be >slightly< skewed.
    Kind of internet person heavy
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    TGOHF said:

    interesting snippet in this latest call for the cabinet to grow a pair.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/the-cabinet-must-tell-may-to-go.html


    "Expect soon to hear a new form of that old talk about a Conservative-UKIP alliance – this time round, of a Tory-Brexit Party pact."

    Is that code for Nigel Farage wanting to be wanted?
    Even those on the right of the party know that if they go into a formal or semi-formal alliance with a bunch of crypto-fascists the Conservative Party is finished, and rightly so.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    The monarch is the latest enemy of the people.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115519090876190721?s=21

    For a group of people who claim to love Britain, there doesn't seem to be much about it that they want to leave standing.
    As I said, like Corbyn they are would be revolutionaries.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    That would probably be enough to get the WA through. Pragmatism at last?
    The rule of Brexit is that sensible , pragmatic ideas get thrown in the bin.
    Well something has to happen this week.
    You might think that, but I wouldn't put it past them to think of a way in which we'll get to the end of the week and still won't know what's going to happen.
    Both the EU and May will find a way to prolong the agony.

    It's what they do best.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    I've always meant to ask you what first attracted you to thin skinned, touchy overreactor Dan Hannan.
    Hmm not sure. Possibly the fact we both have the wit and intelligence that you clearly lack. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. I will think on it and come back to insult you some more later.
    I'm quite happy to agree that you have the wit and intelligence (and possibly even the debonair good looks) of Hannan.
    Oh stop trying to sweet talk me. As I said, I am already on your side.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    For a back bench MP out of favour with her party's leadership it is indeed. Assessments of her capability based on the fiasco of HIPs perhaps need to be revisited.
    As you grow older your education account develops, miistake by mistake, until in later life you gain wisdom and look back at some of your previous decisions in horror.

    Hips and Yvette come into that category. I actually had considerable involvement with HIPS at the time and Yvette just would not listen to advice coming from many in the industry.
    In Scotland, because the SNP can never admit a mistake, we still have them. In fairness it kept a lot of surveyor firms going after 2008, all those delicious and pointless fees and repeat fees for so little work.
    The problem for Suevyors is that what they really want to do is provide expert advice - something of value for a relevant fee. Providing nonsense tick box reports which can be completed by trainees is not a way to promote a profession.
    Have you heard about the home energy efficiency reports that have to be done to allow you to rent out properties? The assessment idea is good, but the software tool used to capture data on the property and then calculate the scoring doesn't have options to allow the latest EU approved highly efficient electric radiators. These have complex programming capability and PIR sensors so they are only on when required and use much less energy than the previous generation. The issue is that if you fit them you will not get the necessary score to allow you to rent unless you get a temporary exemption. Methinks the regulations were not reviewed by someone senior enough to point out that flexibility for new technology should be built in.
    I used to be involved in producing EPCs around ten years ago. They are worthwhile but are somewhat generic, also whilst technology in heating systems play a part in the calculation, an improvement might not improve thermal performance that much. As I remember loft insulation and window thermal performance had a much bigger impact on ratings as they prevent any heating being lost disproportionately. I remember that there was not a simple calculation to work out ratings and that any non standard items like green buildings would require a specialist engineer to do the work.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Foremain, ironic, given Labour's led by Marxists.

    Just on the EU, the PLP idiotically putting Corbyn on the shortlist affected things a lot. We would've likely remained had the Labour leader been an actual Remainer. If we had voted to Leave, such a leader would likely have a far greater desire for a second referendum. The party would also be far ahead in the polls, united, and not suffering its well-documented problems.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    The other response is to moan about font size! Admitting being wrong is a quality not a fault.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Mr. Foremain, ironic, given Labour's led by Marxists.

    Just on the EU, the PLP idiotically putting Corbyn on the shortlist affected things a lot. We would've likely remained had the Labour leader been an actual Remainer. If we had voted to Leave, such a leader would likely have a far greater desire for a second referendum. The party would also be far ahead in the polls, united, and not suffering its well-documented problems.

    Agreed, disasters rarely have a single cause.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited April 2019

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Have there been any recent polls for Leave/Remain? Surely 'Remain' must by now have enough of a lead to make a second referendum sound like the democratic thing to do.

    There were 60 odd in 2015, 86% of them had Remain winning and the average margin was 8%

    Maybe the referendum vote was an outlier!! :D
    Remain leads by 4 -5% on average, at the moment, although much depends on how you ask the question.
    Does anyone know if phone or online polls performed better in 2016. I think it would be much harder to find your normal leave voter. You have the politically active vocal leave supporters but they might make up 1% of the 17400000 voters.
    It's on here

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership

    As with most polls, when the election was a real thing, it seemed to get more accurate. When it was a hypothetical, it was dire
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    I've always meant to ask you what first attracted you to thin skinned, touchy overreactor Dan Hannan.
    Hmm not sure. Possibly the fact we both have the wit and intelligence that you clearly lack. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. I will think on it and come back to insult you some more later.
    I'm quite happy to agree that you have the wit and intelligence (and possibly even the debonair good looks) of Hannan.
    Irony alert! Irony alert! Scottish Nationalist accuses someone of being thin skinned and touchy. Nope I didn't make it up! He will have to accuse someone of having fake grievances next to top that one!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Stoke, I read recently, in After The Ice, that computer modelling suggest minor (individual) impacts of increased hunting by early Americans, and of changing climate, when taken together could've had a devastating impact on megafauna in North America, leading to multiple species going extinct.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Sandpit said:



    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July

    How many British MEPs are really going to do an Unternehmen Werwolf to disrupt the EU?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    The monarch is the latest enemy of the people.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115519090876190721?s=21

    For a group of people who claim to love Britain, there doesn't seem to be much about it that they want to leave standing.
    As with the Corbynite left, they have a vision of Britain which is perhaps a touch at odds with the electorate. They both need to act as the parasite inside a living host (Labour/Conservative) to further their malign ambitions.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    The monarch is the latest enemy of the people.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115519090876190721?s=21

    For a group of people who claim to love Britain, there doesn't seem to be much about it that they want to leave standing.
    They are such nutters that I suspect they thought the Sovereign was going to declare martial law and Mark Francois was going to go into the HoC with a funny hat on firing a pistol in the air
    Must have obtained the pistol illegally; surely no-one would let him have a gun licence?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:
    Or they just expect the party and MPs to abide by the manifesto commitments they were voted in on...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Mr. Foremain, ironic, given Labour's led by Marxists.

    Just on the EU, the PLP idiotically putting Corbyn on the shortlist affected things a lot. We would've likely remained had the Labour leader been an actual Remainer. If we had voted to Leave, such a leader would likely have a far greater desire for a second referendum. The party would also be far ahead in the polls, united, and not suffering its well-documented problems.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, but Marxism in all its repulsiveness is not as repulsive as fascism. A Conservative alliance with a now overtly racist UKIP would be a level of toxicity that would cause a high level of support to melt away on the moderate end of the party, and it is that moderate end, IMO, that has always enabled the Conservative Party to appeal to a wider electorate.

    Agree with your second para though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), Fox being right about something may be a sign the End Times are upon us.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
    They could open a child refugee centre in her name, and keep it empty.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    TGOHF said:
    That sort of implies he thinks we should be at the table. Doesn't it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or they just expect the party and MPs to abide by the manifesto commitments they were voted in on...
    They weren't voted in on the manifesto. They did not get consent for that manifesto.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Scott_P said:
    Flight Sergeant's tunic with a commissioned officer's cap. Absolute shambles.

    Knuckles Moran looks like she's ready to do some CQC on Bridgen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or they just expect the party and MPs to abide by the manifesto commitments they were voted in on...
    I never realised the dementia tax was that popular?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or they just expect the party and MPs to abide by the manifesto commitments they were voted in on...
    Voters decided not to give May a majority and so they didn’t approve the manifesto . I don’t hear much bleating about the social care policy biting the dust . But amazingly now the Brexit parts are like Moses Ten Commandments in stone . More Leave hypocrisy !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:



    The EU really don't want UK MEPs messing things up after July

    How many British MEPs are really going to do an Unternehmen Werwolf to disrupt the EU?
    I'm not sure they're too worried about the likes of Dan Hannan, but they really want to get shot of Farage and definitely wouldn't want someone like 'Tommy' spouting his bile from Brussels.

    There's also a good chance of EU-sceptic MEPs from other countries being elected, which combined with the UK members could potentially form a 30-35% bloc capable of screwing about if they were so inclined.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Foremain, fascism and communism/Marxism are just different plates, both of which serve shit sandwiches.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    That sort of implies he thinks we should be at the table. Doesn't it?
    Yes - we'd be better off in pissing everyone off than the "May minus" plan of handing over control to the EU without being at the table.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Meanwhile, people in Hong Kong may be less delighted with their new Beijing masters than they would've imagined a couple of decades ago:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47863061
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,743

    isam said:

    FPT

    That was a particularly stupid comment from Uniondivvie given there are a number of us on here who support both Brexit and Scottish Independence.
    We're on to stupid already? Fucking moron by noon I'll wager.
    Hahaha. That is your response when you know you have screwed up. At least Malc has the decency to recognise that some of us are consistent in our support for independence at both EU and UK level. You seem to hate the English so much that you lack even the good grace to recognise when some of them are on your side.
    I've always meant to ask you what first attracted you to thin skinned, touchy overreactor Dan Hannan.
    Hmm not sure. Possibly the fact we both have the wit and intelligence that you clearly lack. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. I will think on it and come back to insult you some more later.
    I'm quite happy to agree that you have the wit and intelligence (and possibly even the debonair good looks) of Hannan.
    Oh stop trying to sweet talk me. As I said, I am already on your side.
    You lurched on to an exchange between two other posters, I don't really care if you're on my side or not. If you missed the irony of a Brexiteer spouting the 'we voted as one country' bollox, you truly are a Hannanite beyond all aid.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,708

    Mr. Foremain, ironic, given Labour's led by Marxists.

    Just on the EU, the PLP idiotically putting Corbyn on the shortlist affected things a lot. We would've likely remained had the Labour leader been an actual Remainer. If we had voted to Leave, such a leader would likely have a far greater desire for a second referendum. The party would also be far ahead in the polls, united, and not suffering its well-documented problems.

    Mr Dancer the predicament we are currently in is not Jezzas fault he didnt call GE 2017.

    You should look closer to home for fault like maybe Tin Ear and the Tories inability to find anyone better
  • Dismas64Dismas64 Posts: 5
    So, using the PB rule that Robert Peston is always wrong – when he said on ITV News last night that he couldn't see how Brexit worked then I knew it must be possible to see the way through….

    The moment has now come when everyone (who matters!) can claim a win. This is when a resolution is possible.

    The WA passes soon because

    1) Macron can claim he saved Europe and the European dream from Perfidious Albion who might either revoke and scupper the budget or No Deal and cause economic chaos.
    2) Merkel has left Europe satisfied with a deal that works – and helped avoid/limit a German recession
    3) Varadker has avoided No Deal (though been lent on by Merkel to deliver a time limit to the Backstop – hence her visit last week and Barnier yesterday)
    4) DUP has got an amendment to the Backstop to put some kind of nominal time limit on it
    5) Grieve/Cooper and co. have limited the danger of No Deal
    6) Corbyn looks Prime Ministerial by getting an amendment to the Political Declaration, by finding a route through in the national interest – and so enhancing his chances of becoming PM in the GE which will surely occur soonsnce he appears less of a risk. Oh, and the passing of the WA and actually Brexiting kills the TIGs who lose their raison d’etre – Labour stays united. He also avoids a second referendum.
    7) Labour MPs are not whipped so can either abstain, support or vote against. The non whipping permits the whole thing to pass but each individual Labour MP can create their own story
    8) Tory MPs are whipped to support. The Tory party shows some limited unity, ERG are irrelevant to the final result and life goes on.

    Thus all that is required for this to occur is a change in wording to the PD about workers rights etc., some kind of 10 year limit to the backstop from the European council as a last minute fudge (typical Europe) and lo, May gets Brexit and gets to go off into the sunset.

    A solution that works for all a little bit. That is what I can now see….am I wrong or is Peston wrong?

    Oh, and as a rider. May has now spent 3 years becoming the world’s best negotiator (if the above transpires). She understands all the details, understands the people and the pressure points and the process. Therefore she is actually who should negotiate the final deal during the WA period. She won’t of course – but that is what should happen. Ignore Gove – use the experts!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    notme2 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
    They could open a child refugee centre in her name, and keep it empty.
    Geniune LOL, very good.

    Right, work to do. Laters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Owls, I've criticised May rather a lot. She's incredibly incompetent.

    Your leader's wretched too.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,708
    Any of the activists on here fancy Campaigning for the EU elections

    I think I will give it a miss.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    As ever, we need to come back to the ballot. That said to leave the EU. The fact Fox doesn't want any sort of CU is tough dinkum for him.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    isam said:

    It's on here

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership

    As with most polls, when the election was a real thing, it seemed to get more accurate. When it was a hypothetical, it was dire

    TBF the online polling looks pretty great, even quite a long way out.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    edited April 2019
    Does anyone think the 30% implied probability of leaving by the end of June (on Betfair) looks too low?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    As ever, we need to come back to the ballot. That said to leave the EU. The fact Fox doesn't want any sort of CU is tough dinkum for him.
    Odds of it passing aren't good. Looks like less Cons will support this time than last.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,708
    Dismas64 said:

    So, using the PB rule that Robert Peston is always wrong – when he said on ITV News last night that he couldn't see how Brexit worked then I knew it must be possible to see the way through….

    The moment has now come when everyone (who matters!) can claim a win. This is when a resolution is possible.

    The WA passes soon because

    1) Macron can claim he saved Europe and the European dream from Perfidious Albion who might either revoke and scupper the budget or No Deal and cause economic chaos.
    2) Merkel has left Europe satisfied with a deal that works – and helped avoid/limit a German recession
    3) Varadker has avoided No Deal (though been lent on by Merkel to deliver a time limit to the Backstop – hence her visit last week and Barnier yesterday)
    4) DUP has got an amendment to the Backstop to put some kind of nominal time limit on it
    5) Grieve/Cooper and co. have limited the danger of No Deal
    6) Corbyn looks Prime Ministerial by getting an amendment to the Political Declaration, by finding a route through in the national interest – and so enhancing his chances of becoming PM in the GE which will surely occur soonsnce he appears less of a risk. Oh, and the passing of the WA and actually Brexiting kills the TIGs who lose their raison d’etre – Labour stays united. He also avoids a second referendum.
    7) Labour MPs are not whipped so can either abstain, support or vote against. The non whipping permits the whole thing to pass but each individual Labour MP can create their own story
    8) Tory MPs are whipped to support. The Tory party shows some limited unity, ERG are irrelevant to the final result and life goes on.

    Thus all that is required for this to occur is a change in wording to the PD about workers rights etc., some kind of 10 year limit to the backstop from the European council as a last minute fudge (typical Europe) and lo, May gets Brexit and gets to go off into the sunset.

    A solution that works for all a little bit. That is what I can now see….am I wrong or is Peston wrong?

    Oh, and as a rider. May has now spent 3 years becoming the world’s best negotiator (if the above transpires). She understands all the details, understands the people and the pressure points and the process. Therefore she is actually who should negotiate the final deal during the WA period. She won’t of course – but that is what should happen. Ignore Gove – use the experts!

    Like all LAB supporters I would love May to Stay.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    isam said:

    It's on here

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership

    As with most polls, when the election was a real thing, it seemed to get more accurate. When it was a hypothetical, it was dire

    TBF the online polling looks pretty great, even quite a long way out.
    Depends what you consider to be a long way out
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Dismas64 said:

    So, using the PB rule that Robert Peston is always wrong – when he said on ITV News last night that he couldn't see how Brexit worked then I knew it must be possible to see the way through….

    The moment has now come when everyone (who matters!) can claim a win. This is when a resolution is possible.

    The WA passes soon because

    1) Macron can claim he saved Europe and the European dream from Perfidious Albion who might either revoke and scupper the budget or No Deal and cause economic chaos.
    2) Merkel has left Europe satisfied with a deal that works – and helped avoid/limit a German recession
    3) Varadker has avoided No Deal (though been lent on by Merkel to deliver a time limit to the Backstop – hence her visit last week and Barnier yesterday)
    4) DUP has got an amendment to the Backstop to put some kind of nominal time limit on it
    5) Grieve/Cooper and co. have limited the danger of No Deal
    6) Corbyn looks Prime Ministerial by getting an amendment to the Political Declaration, by finding a route through in the national interest – and so enhancing his chances of becoming PM in the GE which will surely occur soonsnce he appears less of a risk. Oh, and the passing of the WA and actually Brexiting kills the TIGs who lose their raison d’etre – Labour stays united. He also avoids a second referendum.
    7) Labour MPs are not whipped so can either abstain, support or vote against. The non whipping permits the whole thing to pass but each individual Labour MP can create their own story
    8) Tory MPs are whipped to support. The Tory party shows some limited unity, ERG are irrelevant to the final result and life goes on.

    Thus all that is required for this to occur is a change in wording to the PD about workers rights etc., some kind of 10 year limit to the backstop from the European council as a last minute fudge (typical Europe) and lo, May gets Brexit and gets to go off into the sunset.

    A solution that works for all a little bit. That is what I can now see….am I wrong or is Peston wrong?

    Oh, and as a rider. May has now spent 3 years becoming the world’s best negotiator (if the above transpires). She understands all the details, understands the people and the pressure points and the process. Therefore she is actually who should negotiate the final deal during the WA period. She won’t of course – but that is what should happen. Ignore Gove – use the experts!

    Like all LAB supporters I would love May to Stay.
    If you want May to stay then vote against the WA.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or they just expect the party and MPs to abide by the manifesto commitments they were voted in on...
    They weren't voted in on the manifesto. They did not get consent for that manifesto.
    Individual MPs were, weren't they?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    notme2 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
    They could open a child refugee centre in her name, and keep it empty.
    Miaow!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Chris said:

    Does anyone think the 30% implied probability of leaving by the end of June (on Betfair) looks too low?

    Not really. Long extension looks favourite. A crisis choice between revoke and no deal looks second favourite. Some sort of deal with Labour looks third favourite retaining 22 May, or going to long extension if a PV vote goes through. Hard to see how we get to end June - even if the EU did give us it now, things could easily change again.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Any of the activists on here fancy Campaigning for the EU elections

    I think I will give it a miss.

    Of course I will, and so should you. We shouldn't just campaign when it's easy.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Any of the activists on here fancy Campaigning for the EU elections

    I think I will give it a miss.

    Of course I will, and so should you. We shouldn't just campaign when it's easy.
    Having being an activist for twenty two years ive never campaigned in a euro election except when coincided with a local election.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Dismas64 said:

    So, using the PB rule that Robert Peston is always wrong – when he said on ITV News last night that he couldn't see how Brexit worked then I knew it must be possible to see the way through….

    The moment has now come when everyone (who matters!) can claim a win. This is when a resolution is possible.

    The WA passes soon because

    1) Macron can claim he saved Europe and the European dream from Perfidious Albion who might either revoke and scupper the budget or No Deal and cause economic chaos.
    2) Merkel has left Europe satisfied with a deal that works – and helped avoid/limit a German recession
    3) Varadker has avoided No Deal (though been lent on by Merkel to deliver a time limit to the Backstop – hence her visit last week and Barnier yesterday)
    4) DUP has got an amendment to the Backstop to put some kind of nominal time limit on it
    5) Grieve/Cooper and co. have limited the danger of No Deal
    6) Corbyn looks Prime Ministerial by getting an amendment to the Political Declaration, by finding a route through in the national interest – and so enhancing his chances of becoming PM in the GE which will surely occur soonsnce he appears less of a risk. Oh, and the passing of the WA and actually Brexiting kills the TIGs who lose their raison d’etre – Labour stays united. He also avoids a second referendum.
    7) Labour MPs are not whipped so can either abstain, support or vote against. The non whipping permits the whole thing to pass but each individual Labour MP can create their own story
    8) Tory MPs are whipped to support. The Tory party shows some limited unity, ERG are irrelevant to the final result and life goes on.

    Thus all that is required for this to occur is a change in wording to the PD about workers rights etc., some kind of 10 year limit to the backstop from the European council as a last minute fudge (typical Europe) and lo, May gets Brexit and gets to go off into the sunset.

    A solution that works for all a little bit. That is what I can now see….am I wrong or is Peston wrong?

    Oh, and as a rider. May has now spent 3 years becoming the world’s best negotiator (if the above transpires). She understands all the details, understands the people and the pressure points and the process. Therefore she is actually who should negotiate the final deal during the WA period. She won’t of course – but that is what should happen. Ignore Gove – use the experts!

    All sounds plausible but will the ducks line up in a row?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Does anyone think the 30% implied probability of leaving by the end of June (on Betfair) looks too low?

    Not really. Long extension looks favourite. A crisis choice between revoke and no deal looks second favourite. Some sort of deal with Labour looks third favourite retaining 22 May, or going to long extension if a PV vote goes through. Hard to see how we get to end June - even if the EU did give us it now, things could easily change again.
    Fudge and can kicking will win this time like all other times.

    Extension until 2020 offered by the EU and accepted by May.

    She will try and cling on to "see it through".

    No other options remotely likely.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Chris said:

    Does anyone think the 30% implied probability of leaving by the end of June (on Betfair) looks too low?

    More like very very optimistic
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    kjohnw said:

    Dismas64 said:

    So, using the PB rule that Robert Peston is always wrong – when he said on ITV News last night that he couldn't see how Brexit worked then I knew it must be possible to see the way through….

    The moment has now come when everyone (who matters!) can claim a win. This is when a resolution is possible.

    The WA passes soon because

    1) Macron can claim he saved Europe and the European dream from Perfidious Albion who might either revoke and scupper the budget or No Deal and cause economic chaos.
    2) Merkel has left Europe satisfied with a deal that works – and helped avoid/limit a German recession
    3) Varadker has avoided No Deal (though been lent on by Merkel to deliver a time limit to the Backstop – hence her visit last week and Barnier yesterday)
    4) DUP has got an amendment to the Backstop to put some kind of nominal time limit on it
    5) Grieve/Cooper and co. have limited the danger of No Deal
    6) Corbyn looks Prime Ministerial by getting an amendment to the Political Declaration, by finding a route through in the national interest – and so enhancing his chances of becoming PM in the GE which will surely occur soonsnce he appears less of a risk. Oh, and the passing of the WA and actually Brexiting kills the TIGs who lose their raison d’etre – Labour stays united. He also avoids a second referendum.
    7) Labour MPs are not whipped so can either abstain, support or vote against. The non whipping permits the whole thing to pass but each individual Labour MP can create their own story
    8) Tory MPs are whipped to support. The Tory party shows some limited unity, ERG are irrelevant to the final result and life goes on.

    Thus all that is required for this to occur is a change in wording to the PD about workers rights etc., some kind of 10 year limit to the backstop from the European council as a last minute fudge (typical Europe) and lo, May gets Brexit and gets to go off into the sunset.

    A solution that works for all a little bit. That is what I can now see….am I wrong or is Peston wrong?

    Oh, and as a rider. May has now spent 3 years becoming the world’s best negotiator (if the above transpires). She understands all the details, understands the people and the pressure points and the process. Therefore she is actually who should negotiate the final deal during the WA period. She won’t of course – but that is what should happen. Ignore Gove – use the experts!

    All sounds plausible but will the ducks line up in a row?
    At least 100 tories would rebel on CU so no.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    notme2 said:

    Any of the activists on here fancy Campaigning for the EU elections

    I think I will give it a miss.

    Of course I will, and so should you. We shouldn't just campaign when it's easy.
    Having being an activist for twenty two years ive never campaigned in a euro election except when coincided with a local election.
    Neither have I. But I did have to knock on doors as a councillor during the coalition. So it is only fair that the big party activists get out there now.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Meanwhile, people in Hong Kong may be less delighted with their new Beijing masters than they would've imagined a couple of decades ago:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47863061

    China has found it can have the economic boom of Hong Kong but do it without those pesky European concepts of freedom and liberty. At one point it was a take over of china by hong kong.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dura_Ace said:

    kjohnw said:

    Dismas64 said:

    So, using the PB rule that Robert Peston is always wrong – when he said on ITV News last night that he couldn't see how Brexit worked then I knew it must be possible to see the way through….

    The moment has now come when everyone (who matters!) can claim a win. This is when a resolution is possible.

    The WA passes soon because

    1) Macron can claim he saved Europe and the European dream from Perfidious Albion who might either revoke and scupper the budget or No Deal and cause economic chaos.
    2) Merkel has left Europe satisfied with a deal that works – and helped avoid/limit a German recession
    3) Varadker has avoided No Deal (though been lent on by Merkel to deliver a time limit to the Backstop – hence her visit last week and Barnier yesterday)
    4) DUP has got an amendment to the Backstop to put some kind of nominal time limit on it
    5) Grieve/Cooper and co. have limited the danger of No Deal
    6) Corbyn looks Prime Ministerial by getting an amendment to the Political Declaration, by finding a route through in the national interest – and so enhancing his chances of becoming PM in the GE which will surely occur soonsnce he appears less of a risk. Oh, and the passing of the WA and actually Brexiting kills the TIGs who lose their raison d’etre – Labour stays united. He also avoids a second referendum.
    7) Labour MPs are not whipped so can either abstain, support or vote against. The non whipping permits the whole thing to pass but each individual Labour MP can create their own story
    8) Tory MPs are whipped to support. The Tory party shows some limited unity, ERG are irrelevant to the final result and life goes on.

    Thus all that is required for this to occur is a change in wording to the PD about workers rights etc., some kind of 10 year limit to the backstop from the European council as a last minute fudge (typical Europe) and lo, May gets Brexit and gets to go off into the sunset.

    A solution that works for all a little bit. That is what I can now see….am I wrong or is Peston wrong?

    Oh, and as a rider. May has now spent 3 years becoming the world’s best negotiator (if the above transpires). She understands all the details, understands the people and the pressure points and the process. Therefore she is actually who should negotiate the final deal during the WA period. She won’t of course – but that is what should happen. Ignore Gove – use the experts!

    All sounds plausible but will the ducks line up in a row?
    At least 100 tories would rebel on CU so no.
    They'll call it something else to try and save face. A customs alignment or some crap. If labour are on board 100 Tory rebels isn't enough anyway
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    Any of the activists on here fancy Campaigning for the EU elections

    I think I will give it a miss.

    Of course I will, and so should you. We shouldn't just campaign when it's easy.
    As I quite enjoy being in a majority (Indyref, Brexit, etc) I will not even vote. Be surprised if 25% of people do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,743
    Jeezo, and she's supposed to be from the not completely moonbat kipper wing.

    https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/1115530057240518656
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    When I was door=knocking in Battersea last year, my impression was that lots of Labour members had no idea what they were doing. Instead of dispersing, and having one or two people working a street, you'd see a whole group of them turning up on someone's doorstep.
    The Momentumescents do seem to have got the campaigning bug here, though it's as much market stall campaigning (where they can set up en masse) as their beloved hashtag #LabourDoorstep. But I think they're going to do well on May 2nd. I'm not too confident in OGH's prediction of the previous thread that "The Tories have most to defend and look set to make some losses though mostly to the LDs", sadly.
    Locally Labour are trying to make the local elections a national / brexit poll as they have done so badly locally they really need to be replaced.

    Whether that happens is a different matter.
    Actually I'm trying to make it a local election in my patch, but the pesky voters insist it's all about Brexit. As I tweeted the other day:

    Canvassing 2019:
    Voter: I'm fed up with politicians going on about Brexit. Nobody listens about issues that matter to me!
    Me: Well, I'm here and want to improve our area. What would you like to discuss?
    Voter: Well...er... what do YOU think about Brexit?
    Me: (Sigh)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or they just expect the party and MPs to abide by the manifesto commitments they were voted in on...
    They weren't voted in on the manifesto. They did not get consent for that manifesto.
    All the people that voted Conservative did so in the expectation that, if in Downing Street, May would meet her commitment to Brexit outside a Customs Union given in the Manifesto.

    The people of Northern Ireland voted in the DUP in the expectation that they would also deliver their manifesto commitment to Brexit. Together, that gave a majority for Brexit across the UK.

    The Conservatives and the DUP came to an financial arrangement to keep the Conservatives in power. That arrangement would allow both to deliver their Manifesto commitments.



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    DavidL said:

    notme2 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    And so Cooper will get her desire of no Brexit. A remarkable achievement

    The Angel of the North! They'll build statues of her. Buildings will be named after her. Mandela Way will become Cooper-Balls Boulevard. The third runway will be 'Yvettes'........
    They could open a child refugee centre in her name, and keep it empty.
    Miaow!
    Funniest satire on pb.com in a while though....
This discussion has been closed.