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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not before 2022 or not at all now betting favourite for when Brexit happens

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    Once a deadline is moveable, bet long. The favourite is correctly so this time in my view.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    Once a deadline is moveable, bet long.

    Seems like solid advice, particularly in this context.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Tonight it looks like the EU will kick us out at the end of December 2019 even if we do not want to go if the Withdrawal Agreement has not been ratified by then, so it looks like unless a Deal is ratified soon it will be revoke or No Deal as we enter the New Year. Coincidentally December 2019 also being the time when May can face a VONC from Tory MPs again and a new Tory leader and PM be put in place.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,988
    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,988
    Related: Betfair have a market on Bercow being Speaker on New Years Eve. I think it's 1/2 yes, 6/4 No. Not certain, but I reckon he's not going anywhere while this carries on and maybe not afterwards. He clearly really likes being Speaker, and can't have much of a future in the Commons afterwards. He'll enjoy being a Lord, but nowhere near as much.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,988
    edited April 9

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?

    Maybe 20% is fair, but I'm not convinced. It feels like Labour have basically stepped back from the talks already, if May ever really meant to compromise anyway.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    HYUFD said:

    Tonight it looks like the EU will kick us out at the end of December 2019 even if we do not want to go if the Withdrawal Agreement has not been ratified by then, so it looks like unless a Deal is ratified soon it will be revoke or No Deal as we enter the New Year. Coincidentally December 2019 also being the time when May can face a VONC from Tory MPs again and a new Tory leader and PM be put in place.

    Probably, not coincidentally.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    If labour support a deal it will romp home. Most MPs would bite your hand off for a solution now, and yo be 'whipped' to 'reluctantly' go along
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 9
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    Deal plus confirmatory referendum, given both Customs Union and EUref2 were closest to a Commons majority on the indicative votes
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    Deal plus confirmatory referendum, given both Customs Union and EUref2 were closest to a Commons majority on the indicative votes
    There will not be a referendum
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,138
    edited April 9
    BBC report about about people being housed in former offices in places like Harlow.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,405
    HYUFD said:

    Tonight it looks like the EU will kick us out at the end of December 2019 even if we do not want to go if the Withdrawal Agreement has not been ratified by then, so it looks like unless a Deal is ratified soon it will be revoke or No Deal as we enter the New Year. Coincidentally December 2019 also being the time when May can face a VONC from Tory MPs again and a new Tory leader and PM be put in place.

    If the EU wanted to kick the UK out we would have left last month. The prospect now is for an endless series of extensions running at least until the next UK general election. The chances of the current parliament agreeing a withdrawal deal are minimal. So the EU will keep a paralysed and humiliated UK hanging on partly because they hope we will change our minds and partly as a deterrent to any other country considering leaving.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    edited April 9
    Jonathan said:
    The People may once again give the "wrong" answer.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    You know what? If lord sutch was still about I think he could get elected in the SE region. The ultimate FU, send a Loony to the EU
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,405

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    If labour support a deal it will romp home. Most MPs would bite your hand off for a solution now, and yo be 'whipped' to 'reluctantly' go along
    Labour will not do a deal with May. She cannot deliver her own cabinet let alone her MPs or her wider party. She has already said she is quitting. Her credibility is zero. She has nothing to offer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:
    The People may once again give the "wrong" answer.

    Putin up to his old tricks again?
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 315

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    Deal plus confirmatory referendum, given both Customs Union and EUref2 were closest to a Commons majority on the indicative votes
    There will not be a referendum
    Just saying that point is not a solution. We need clarity or something that is better than a PV if you disagree (as no prospect of something happening soon otherwise).

    Suspect going for a PV later this year avoids a no deal / revoke cliffedge scenario though.....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    If labour support a deal it will romp home. Most MPs would bite your hand off for a solution now, and yo be 'whipped' to 'reluctantly' go along
    Labour will not do a deal with May. She cannot deliver her own cabinet let alone her MPs or her wider party. She has already said she is quitting. Her credibility is zero. She has nothing to offer.
    Bit silly of them to still be talking in that case
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    Deal plus confirmatory referendum, given both Customs Union and EUref2 were closest to a Commons majority on the indicative votes
    There will not be a referendum
    Just saying that point is not a solution. We need clarity or something that is better than a PV if you disagree (as no prospect of something happening soon otherwise).

    Suspect going for a PV later this year avoids a no deal / revoke cliffedge scenario though.....
    I was talking about in connection with a con lab deal. They wont agree a PV if they agree a CU etc deal
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,846
    AndyJS said:

    BBC report about about people being housed in former offices in places like Harlow.

    In ‘places like Harlow’. How horrific for them!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749

    You know what? If lord sutch was still about I think he could get elected in the SE region. The ultimate FU, send a Loony to the EU

    The deposit for the EU elections is £5000. Is Lord Buckethead having a crowdfunder?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025

    You know what? If lord sutch was still about I think he could get elected in the SE region. The ultimate FU, send a Loony to the EU

    The deposit for the EU elections is £5000. Is Lord Buckethead having a crowdfunder?
    He hasn't got the screamers name recognition unfortunately but here's hoping!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Quincel said:

    Related: Betfair have a market on Bercow being Speaker on New Years Eve. I think it's 1/2 yes, 6/4 No. Not certain, but I reckon he's not going anywhere while this carries on and maybe not afterwards. He clearly really likes being Speaker, and can't have much of a future in the Commons afterwards. He'll enjoy being a Lord, but nowhere near as much.

    If we have an election in 2019, he's gone when that new Parliament first sits.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    If labour support a deal it will romp home. Most MPs would bite your hand off for a solution now, and yo be 'whipped' to 'reluctantly' go along
    I fear that is wishful thinking. Most of them seem concerned about party positioning, they are not feigning reluctance they genuinely want to kick this into touch.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 9
    FPT
    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    If labour support a deal it will romp home. Most MPs would bite your hand off for a solution now, and yo be 'whipped' to 'reluctantly' go along
    Labour will not do a deal with May. She cannot deliver her own cabinet let alone her MPs or her wider party. She has already said she is quitting. Her credibility is zero. She has nothing to offer.
    Bit silly of them to still be talking in that case
    I suppose they need to be seen to show willing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    If labour support a deal it will romp home. Most MPs would bite your hand off for a solution now, and yo be 'whipped' to 'reluctantly' go along
    Labour will not do a deal with May. She cannot deliver her own cabinet let alone her MPs or her wider party. She has already said she is quitting. Her credibility is zero. She has nothing to offer.
    Bit silly of them to still be talking in that case
    Theres no harm in playing things out and waiting for Tory internal ructions cause a collapse in talks or failure of a deal. They'll have done what they could while the Tories failed to do the same.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,193

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?
    Deal plus confirmatory referendum, given both Customs Union and EUref2 were closest to a Commons majority on the indicative votes
    There will not be a referendum
    Just saying that point is not a solution. We need clarity or something that is better than a PV if you disagree (as no prospect of something happening soon otherwise).

    Suspect going for a PV later this year avoids a no deal / revoke cliffedge scenario though.....
    But the PV might be between Revoke and No Deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Must admit I don't get the 20% chance of leaving before July. The shortest extension possibility is believed to be 30 June, and then literally any further delay loses you the bet. It's entirely possible we'll extend beyond then now anyway.

    If a deal is struck by con and lab we will be out by then. It reflects that chance
    Exactly. 20%? If May agreed to Labour's Customs Union plan would it even get through the Commons? And what other deal could they strike?

    Maybe 20% is fair, but I'm not convinced. It feels like Labour have basically stepped back from the talks already, if May ever really meant to compromise anyway.
    Labour have no reason to compromise to prevent a long extension so can push for a PV to their hearts content . May would give a lot to compromise but I doubt she can deliver that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    Promise Corbyn whatever he wants, just please deliver us from this mess.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,392
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,405
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341
    I used to work with a woman whose husband used to think doing that was the height of humour.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005
    To be serious for a second ,it is telling that they have stepped away from the B word in recent weeks. Just slebs and footy now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,138
    edited April 9
    FPT
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.

    Which makes it all very exciting.

    Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.

    And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.

    And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    edited April 9
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
    Mayor Pete is the mayor of a (previously) failing industrial city in Indiana - I think it's a mistake to think he can't appeal to the rust belt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.

    Which makes it all very exciting.

    Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.

    And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.

    And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
    Seems unlikely the US economy will be 3% next year to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
    Mayor Pete is the mayor of a (previously) failing industrial city in Indiana - I think it's a mistake to think he can't appeal to the rust belt.
    Mayor Pete is the Mayor of a city which has voted for a Democratic Mayor ever since 1972, hardly typical of the rustbelt
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.

    Which makes it all very exciting.

    Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.

    And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.

    And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
    Seems unlikely the US economy will be 3% next year to me.
    Think of it like a sliding scale:

    3%+ Trump wins at a canter
    2.5-3% Trump clear favourite
    2-2.5% Evens
    1.5-2% Democrats favoruite
    1.5% or less Democrats win easily
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 508
    Who on earth is Fuzz Townshend, and has the Sun been taken over by The Sunday Sport?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    dixiedean said:

    To be serious for a second ,it is telling that they have stepped away from the B word in recent weeks. Just slebs and footy now.
    it has become all rather embarrassing i suppose.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 508

    dixiedean said:

    To be serious for a second ,it is telling that they have stepped away from the B word in recent weeks. Just slebs and footy now.
    it has become all rather embarrassing i suppose.
    Certainly looking forward to the news channels quickly glossing over that one in the newspaper reviews.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    Sounds like desperate stuff to me. I wont bother reading.

    There is no evidence MPs cannot take decisions, the problem is they all take different ones.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.

    Which makes it all very exciting.

    Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.

    And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.

    And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
    Provided the economy is not tanking completely which may doom Trump regardless it will be the charisma of the Democratic candidate that will be key, Reagan was hugely charismatic and of course the only candidate since WW2 to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House when he beat Carter in 1980.


    It is no coincidence the rather less charismatic Mondale, Dole, Kerry and Romney all failed to repeat Reagan's feat
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,246
    edited April 9
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I don't that is it at all. It's merely that they are choosing not to make a decision at this time, because it is politically better to wait than to be seen to give in now.

    For all the qualms some have with a soft or very soft Brexit, the hard core of remainers seemed to believe that any formal leaving would be the end for their hopes, in the medium term at least, while outside the ERG core of leavers most seemed to realise that long extension, and participation in the EP elections, meant Brexit might well be over. One side won, it just hasn't worked itself through yet. Leaving will increasingly find itself in a losing battle in the year to come.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 9
    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    Yes, provided you focus on local issues I find they are not too bad, voters are fed up with both main parties (just tell them to save their anger for the Euro elections when there really will be a massacre, I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    Yes it's easy to see this running on and on. We can hold the Euros and settle into a long and well deserved break, pressure off, Brexit limbo simply becoming our new reality. We can stop obsessing over it, get on with other stuff, just make sure to remember every 12 months or so to have somebody pop over to Brussels to sign off on the next extension. Oh and deliver the cheque obviously.

    Is it Remaining? Is it Leaving? Yes and No, and also No and Yes. And therein lies the beauty. Everybody utterly befuddled. A country reunited.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
    Mayor Pete is the mayor of a (previously) failing industrial city in Indiana - I think it's a mistake to think he can't appeal to the rust belt.
    Mayor Pete is the Mayor of a city which has voted for a Democratic Mayor ever since 1972, hardly typical of the rustbelt
    Well, Wisconsin voted pretty consistently Democrat until Donald Trump won it. Next door Minnesota even voted for Walter Mondale and Trump nearly won it.

    Question for you; how many of the previous Mayors won reelection with more than 80% of the vote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,138
    I think the way the UK has dealt with Brexit since 2016 has been a positive lesson in democracy, not a negative one. Danny Finkelstein is saying something similar in tomorrow's Times apparently.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,304
    edited April 9
    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    Yes, provided you focus on local issues I find they are not too bad, voters are fed up with both main parties (just tell them to save their anger for the Euro elections when there really will be a massacre, I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters)
    I think there will be quite a variation. Apathy combined with this round of elections coinciding with the GE in 2015 will make for huge turnout differentials on last time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    Our political establishment is largely suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. Wanting to please their captors in Brussels.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    Yes, provided you focus on local issues I find they are not too bad, voters are fed up with both main parties (just tell them to save their anger for the Euro elections when there really will be a massacre, I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters)
    "I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters" :lol:

    Including half the Cabinet!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    With all due respect, that's bullshit.

    Or rather, simply blaming Brussels is too lazy.

    Probably two thirds of MPs think that voting through the Withdrawal Agreement is the right thing for the country. (The other third is made up of those too thick to understand it properly, and those who wish to overturn the 2016 electoral result.)

    But of those two-thirds, some wish to virtue signal that it's not Brexity enough. While others see partisan advantage in voting it down, thinking it is likely to lead to a General Election.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,304
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I don't that is it at all. It's merely that they are choosing not to make a decision at this time, because it is politically better to wait than to be seen to give in now.

    For all the qualms some have with a soft or very soft Brexit, the hard core of remainers seemed to believe that any formal leaving would be the end for their hopes, in the medium term at least, while outside the ERG core of leavers most seemed to realise that long extension, and participation in the EP elections, meant Brexit might well be over. One side won, it just hasn't worked itself through yet. Leaving will increasingly find itself in a losing battle in the year to come.
    They are on the 33-1 shot which is upsides the favourite after the first fence and instead of cashing out for a few quid are waiting to see if it wins three miles later.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    On the contrary, Jeremy Corbyn opposes the WA because he thinks it failing increases his chance of gaining power...
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,195
    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    Was it Caroline Lucas who said it would be great if we can remain so that Parliament can get back to debating plastic bags and lightbulbs?

    We are not what we were.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    AndyJS said:

    I think the way the UK has dealt with Brexit since 2016 has been a positive lesson in democracy, not a negative one. Danny Finkelstein is saying something similar in tomorrow's Times apparently.

    I haven't got a Times account. Care to precis? Or should I just wait for it to be leaked onto Reddit?... :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    rcs1000 said:

    Think of it like a sliding scale:

    3%+ Trump wins at a canter
    2.5-3% Trump clear favourite
    2-2.5% Evens
    1.5-2% Democrats favoruite
    1.5% or less Democrats win easily

    This is how I see it too.

    Which means I am hoping and praying for a real "Brother Can You Spare A Dime?" affair hitting the States next year.

    Would be nice if it was a 'smart' recession impacting only those who voted for Trump in 2016 but I guess that is too much to ask for.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,405
    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    But will the Tory party survive a leadership election? And how can any leader unite Mark Francois and Dominic Grieve behind an agreed Brexit policy
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 361
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.

    Which makes it all very exciting.

    Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.

    And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.

    And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
    I'll just leave this out here (again) - if Sanders' health holds out, he will win the Democratic primary, and if Trump is still president, Sanders will beat him in the General no matter what the GDP figure is.

    How many points down is Trump in the key swing states that delivered his win last time? It's an awful lot, and there's nothing that's going to rejuvenate his popularity short of a war:

    https://shareblue.com/trump-approval-tanks-2016-swing-states/

    In Morning Consult's most recent survey, Trump is down in the following swing states: Florida (-24 points), Ohio (-20), Michigan (-19), Wisconsin (-18), and Pennsylvania (-17).

    In 2016, Trump won all of those states, which together represent 93 electoral votes. Trump's electoral vote margin of victory was 74 points that year.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    With all due respect, that's bullshit.

    Or rather, simply blaming Brussels is too lazy.

    Probably two thirds of MPs think that voting through the Withdrawal Agreement is the right thing for the country. (The other third is made up of those too thick to understand it properly, and those who wish to overturn the 2016 electoral result.)

    But of those two-thirds, some wish to virtue signal that it's not Brexity enough. While others see partisan advantage in voting it down, thinking it is likely to lead to a General Election.
    I can't help thinking your explanation is more worrying. For MPs to have atrophied into helpless childishness like the crew in "Wall-E" is one thing, for them to be malevolent individuals causing chaos for their own advantage is quite another
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    Not nice... But I'm sure Boris has dipped his in far worse places! :D
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    With all due respect, that's bullshit.

    Or rather, simply blaming Brussels is too lazy.

    Probably two thirds of MPs think that voting through the Withdrawal Agreement is the right thing for the country. (The other third is made up of those too thick to understand it properly, and those who wish to overturn the 2016 electoral result.)

    But of those two-thirds, some wish to virtue signal that it's not Brexity enough. While others see partisan advantage in voting it down, thinking it is likely to lead to a General Election.
    I can't help thinking your explanation is more worrying. For MPs to have atrophied into helpless childishness like the crew in "Wall-E" is one thing, for them to be malevolent individuals causing chaos for their own advantage is quite another
    Look at the people leading Labour.

    Think about what theories they believe in.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    On the contrary, Jeremy Corbyn opposes the WA because he thinks it failing increases his chance of gaining power...
    Exactly - this is blindingly obvious
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    But will the Tory party survive a leadership election? And how can any leader unite Mark Francois and Dominic Grieve behind an agreed Brexit policy
    Deselection
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 9

    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    But will the Tory party survive a leadership election? And how can any leader unite Mark Francois and Dominic Grieve behind an agreed Brexit policy
    In the end if the Tory Party is going to shed anyone it will be the minority of diehard Remainers to TIG, the vast majority of Tory members and Tory voters back even No Deal over Remain and it is those members who will elect the next Tory leader.

    Do not forget when the Corn Laws were repealed the minority of free trading Peelites left the Tories and ultimately joined the Liberals leaving the Tory Party in the hands of protectionists.


    Remainers might win the Brexit battle as the Peelites won the Corn Laws battle but they will lose the party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
    Mayor Pete is the mayor of a (previously) failing industrial city in Indiana - I think it's a mistake to think he can't appeal to the rust belt.
    Mayor Pete is the Mayor of a city which has voted for a Democratic Mayor ever since 1972, hardly typical of the rustbelt
    Well, Wisconsin voted pretty consistently Democrat until Donald Trump won it. Next door Minnesota even voted for Walter Mondale and Trump nearly won it.

    Question for you; how many of the previous Mayors won reelection with more than 80% of the vote.
    Reagan won Wisconsin twice, as you say even Trump lost Minnesota though Nixon won it in 1972.


    I have no clue how many Mayors won more than 80% but I expect it is a high number

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    blueblue said:

    I'll just leave this out here (again) - if Sanders' health holds out, he will win the Democratic primary, and if Trump is still president, Sanders will beat him in the General no matter what the GDP figure is.

    How many points down is Trump in the key swing states that delivered his win last time? It's an awful lot, and there's nothing that's going to rejuvenate his popularity short of a war:

    https://shareblue.com/trump-approval-tanks-2016-swing-states/

    In Morning Consult's most recent survey, Trump is down in the following swing states: Florida (-24 points), Ohio (-20), Michigan (-19), Wisconsin (-18), and Pennsylvania (-17).

    In 2016, Trump won all of those states, which together represent 93 electoral votes. Trump's electoral vote margin of victory was 74 points that year.

    Now that sends me to bed happy. Thank you. I really hope you are right.

    Apart from one tiny thing, the bit about a war. Because if a war is what it would take to get him re-elected, and he realizes this, I have no doubt whatsoever that Trump will manage to have one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143

    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    Yes, provided you focus on local issues I find they are not too bad, voters are fed up with both main parties (just tell them to save their anger for the Euro elections when there really will be a massacre, I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters)
    "I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters" :lol:

    Including half the Cabinet!!!

    Hammond and Gauke and Rudd I doubt
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,978
    edited April 9
    AndyJS said:


    I agree. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.

    He’s not as “woke” as all that, being both a Christian and ex-military, both of which contrast nicely with Trump and would be, I’d have thought, appealing to voters in rust-belt states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 9
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    notme2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Scott_P said:
    if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.

    Would leave July free for a general election.
    Will the Tory party still exist by then do you think?
    The doorstep is holding up__ locals wont be the bloodbath anticipated.
    Yes, provided you focus on local issues I find they are not too bad, voters are fed up with both main parties (just tell them to save their anger for the Euro elections when there really will be a massacre, I even know Tory activists and candidates who will vote for the Brexit Party then let alone Tory voters)
    I think there will be quite a variation. Apathy combined with this round of elections coinciding with the GE in 2015 will make for huge turnout differentials on last time.
    Yes, apathy will be an issue and the Tories will certainly see a swing against them and lose seats given they are roughly tied with Labour now and were 7% ahead of Labour in 2015 but it will not be a 1995 style massacre when Blair's Labour led Major's Tories by 22% and the Tories lost 2,000 councillors overnight.


    Having said that I would not want to be a Tory candidate with a UKIP, Brexit Party or even English Democrats' or well known Independent candidate also on the ballot paper
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:


    I agree. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.

    He’s not as “woke” as all that, being both a Christian and ex-military, both of which contrast nicely with Trump and would be, I’d have thought, appealing to voters in rust-belt states.
    Agreed.

    The Democrats have long needed someone who is openly and unapologetically religious.

    That he manages to do that while being gay is a bonus.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,656
    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    But we are more powerful inside the EU, so it isn't surprising that MPs should generally be in favour of remaining as they like having power.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,131
    Andrew Bridgen wins the looniest Brexit comment of the day, in a strong field:

    Another Conservative MP, Andrew Bridgen, said the UK’s EU membership had turned the country from a Michelin-starred restaurant to one reliant on microwave meals.

    He said: “We used to create these fantastic dishes from scratch and over the years this has been corrupted and we have been deskilled.

    “Now we accept our laws pre-packed from Brussels, ready to go in the microwave. We’ve become a chicken ding parliament with chicken ding politicians.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/may-faces-growing-tory-unrest-mps-approve-brexit-delay
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    Andrew Bridgen wins the looniest Brexit comment of the day, in a strong field:

    Another Conservative MP, Andrew Bridgen, said the UK’s EU membership had turned the country from a Michelin-starred restaurant to one reliant on microwave meals.

    He said: “We used to create these fantastic dishes from scratch and over the years this has been corrupted and we have been deskilled.

    “Now we accept our laws pre-packed from Brussels, ready to go in the microwave. We’ve become a chicken ding parliament with chicken ding politicians.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/may-faces-growing-tory-unrest-mps-approve-brexit-delay

    When I read comments like that, I feel like embracing William Glenn and screaming "YOU WERE RIGHT! YOU WERE RIGHT! Sign me up for the Euro RIGHT NOW"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    Mayor Pete is not just a Christian - he's an Anglican!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,157

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    But we are more powerful inside the EU, so it isn't surprising that MPs should generally be in favour of remaining as they like having power.
    We only have power in the EU if we agree with Germany.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:


    I agree. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.

    He’s not as “woke” as all that, being both a Christian and ex-military, both of which contrast nicely with Trump and would be, I’d have thought, appealing to voters in rust-belt states.
    Agreed.

    The Democrats have long needed someone who is openly and unapologetically religious.

    That he manages to do that while being gay is a bonus.
    Since when has being an Anglican been 'openly and unapologetically religious'?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:


    I agree. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.

    He’s not as “woke” as all that, being both a Christian and ex-military, both of which contrast nicely with Trump and would be, I’d have thought, appealing to voters in rust-belt states.
    Agreed.

    The Democrats have long needed someone who is openly and unapologetically religious.

    That he manages to do that while being gay is a bonus.
    Since when has being an Anglican been 'openly and unapologetically religious'?
    Kaching!

    Very good

    :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    But we are more powerful inside the EU, so it isn't surprising that MPs should generally be in favour of remaining as they like having power.
    We only have power in the EU if we agree with Germany.
    Ah, so the EU is a bit like being married.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    To get a taste of where the Democrats are heading

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    Was it Caroline Lucas who said it would be great if we can remain so that Parliament can get back to debating plastic bags and lightbulbs?

    We are not what we were.
    I don't think we were what we were, even then. I have gone off on one frequently about the poor qualities of MPs, but I can't help thinking they always were like this. @Charles said the other day that the problem is the gradual arrogation of executive power by the legislature, and I think he's right.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    Was it Caroline Lucas who said it would be great if we can remain so that Parliament can get back to debating plastic bags and lightbulbs?

    We are not what we were.
    I don't think we were what we were, even then. I have gone off on one frequently about the poor qualities of MPs, but I can't help thinking they always were like this. @Charles said the other day that the problem is the gradual arrogation of executive power by the legislature, and I think he's right.
    But hasn't power been slipping away from parliament and towards the executive using statutory instruments?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    'Theresa May is considering a new plan to bring legislation to the House of Commons to allow MPs to thrash out a compromise Brexit deal among themselves, if talks with Labour fail to reach a consensus.

    Numerous cabinet sources confirmed to the Guardian that a plan had been discussed to bring forward the withdrawal agreement bill, which could be a way to attempt to bypass a meaningful vote in parliament'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/may-considers-plan-to-let-mps-to-thrash-out-brexit-deal-if-talks-fail
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749
    AndyJS said:

    I think the way the UK has dealt with Brexit since 2016 has been a positive lesson in democracy, not a negative one. Danny Finkelstein is saying something similar in tomorrow's Times apparently.

    I think I will reserve judgement until I can see a resolution to one extent or another, but I can certainly think of worse outcomes. Also, much of the difficulty of the present situation is due to the three-way split in opinion and such a split will always be hard.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:


    I agree. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.

    He’s not as “woke” as all that, being both a Christian and ex-military, both of which contrast nicely with Trump and would be, I’d have thought, appealing to voters in rust-belt states.
    Agreed.

    The Democrats have long needed someone who is openly and unapologetically religious.

    That he manages to do that while being gay is a bonus.
    Since when has being an Anglican been 'openly and unapologetically religious'?
    Kaching!

    Very good

    :)
    He might at least be able to organise a good coffee morning
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,886
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.

    Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
    I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
    I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?

    That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
    Was it Caroline Lucas who said it would be great if we can remain so that Parliament can get back to debating plastic bags and lightbulbs?

    We are not what we were.
    I don't think we were what we were, even then. I have gone off on one frequently about the poor qualities of MPs, but I can't help thinking they always were like this. @Charles said the other day that the problem is the gradual arrogation of executive power by the legislature, and I think he's right.
    But hasn't power been slipping away from parliament and towards the executive using statutory instruments?
    Um, no?

    [Genuinely: have you got the cart before the horse there?]
This discussion has been closed.