....and May's talking to Labour? Bringing Long-Bailey into the middle of the Brexit process?Genius.....
I’m probably in a minority of one on PB in that I quite like Rebecca Long-Bailey. She’s a self-made woman, a solicitor, and somehow who has more brains than people credit her with. And lots of drive and work ethnic. Sure, she wears high-street ladieswear and has very blonde hair, speaks pure Manchester, so the PB Tories sneer at her as the ‘brassy barmaid’. But I like her, partly because of that actually.
This PB conservative does not sneer at her at all.
Whether she has the ability for her role is another matter
I've no doubt Remain could manage to lose another referendum. After the failure of their unremittingly negative campaign first time round, the lesson they drew, according to Shipman's book, was that they were not negative enough.
Ah there you are. Thanks a bunch for that Aintree last race tip.
Bad faith? How do you describe MPs voting to honour the referendum result while doing everything to stop it. A bit of fun?
A bunch of c--ts, since you ask. I was addressing the assumption that thinking a further referendum a goood idea is necessarily motivated by a desire to get "the right answer".
Also why would you go back so far? Polls from January aren't particularly relevant any more.
Labour support dropped sharply, after the formation of TIG. Now, Conservative support has. Both parties are now back to level-pegging, but with significantly lower levels of support than at the end of last year.
Wouldn't those figures translate into an increase in the Lab+Con total at the expense of the Farage old and new parties?
Yes, there's a good chance that none of Lib Dems, UKIP, Greens, or Change UK would win a seat on those numbers. In reality, I expect the vote to be far more fragmented than that.
10%, however, is past the tipping point, so the Brexit Party would win 6 - 8 seats.
....and May's talking to Labour? Bringing Long-Bailey into the middle of the Brexit process?Genius.....
I’m probably in a minority of one on PB in that I quite like Rebecca Long-Bailey. She’s a self-made woman, a solicitor, and somehow who has more brains than people credit her with. And lots of drive and work ethnic. Sure, she wears high-street ladieswear and has very blonde hair, speaks pure Manchester, so the PB Tories sneer at her as the ‘brassy barmaid’. But I like her, partly because of that actually.
Never mentioned her hair, her clothes, her accent. That you do, unprompted, says more about you.
I am however guilty of thinking she comes across as dumb as a brick when interviewed by political pundits.
And I have no idea what her "work ethnic" would be!!
....and May's talking to Labour? Bringing Long-Bailey into the middle of the Brexit process?Genius.....
I’m probably in a minority of one on PB in that I quite like Rebecca Long-Bailey. She’s a self-made woman, a solicitor, and somehow who has more brains than people credit her with. And lots of drive and work ethnic. Sure, she wears high-street ladieswear and has very blonde hair, speaks pure Manchester, so the PB Tories sneer at her as the ‘brassy barmaid’. But I like her, partly because of that actually.
I don't recall that, either (though you could well be right).
It is her ability to avoid answering questions by regurgitating the party talking points at excruciating length, during just about every interview, which grates with me.
A thought on polling. UKIP at 7%..... unless they get heavy backing ftom somewhere they can probably only afford to stand a few dozen candidates. Might make a big difference to the result
I am sure our Russian friends will oblige.
I think UKIP will be a marginal force in the next GE, their racism will be front and centre. Brexit on the other hand........
I dont think islamophobia is particularly a vote loser for the far right. They might even make it a central policy if Javid is Tory leader.
Is Javid a Muslim? I’m sure I read somewhere that he is an avowed atheist
The reek of ugly exceptionalism coming off this is quite overpowering.
Well I was channeling ERG rather than myself! Because there is still a lot of British exceptionalism around, it seems, especially when it comes to our relationship with Europe, and it is getting in the way rather than helping.
....and May's talking to Labour? Bringing Long-Bailey into the middle of the Brexit process?Genius.....
I’m probably in a minority of one on PB in that I quite like Rebecca Long-Bailey. She’s a self-made woman, a solicitor, and somehow who has more brains than people credit her with. And lots of drive and work ethnic. Sure, she wears high-street ladieswear and has very blonde hair, speaks pure Manchester, so the PB Tories sneer at her as the ‘brassy barmaid’. But I like her, partly because of that actually.
I think she's quite impressive, especially since she's still pretty young for a politician.
It is very striking how Mark F has become the face of ERG over the last couple of weeks. Rees Mogg knows a fall guy when he sees one.
No No No No No until no deal. It is a blunt and possibly effective MO whereas the opponents of no deal have to go through complicated, nuanced, tortuous processes to avoid and counter it.
A thought on polling. UKIP at 7%..... unless they get heavy backing ftom somewhere they can probably only afford to stand a few dozen candidates. Might make a big difference to the result
I am sure our Russian friends will oblige.
I think UKIP will be a marginal force in the next GE, their racism will be front and centre. Brexit on the other hand........
I dont think islamophobia is particularly a vote loser for the far right. They might even make it a central policy if Javid is Tory leader.
Is Javid a Muslim? I’m sure I read somewhere that he is an avowed atheist
A thought on polling. UKIP at 7%..... unless they get heavy backing ftom somewhere they can probably only afford to stand a few dozen candidates. Might make a big difference to the result
I am sure our Russian friends will oblige.
I think UKIP will be a marginal force in the next GE, their racism will be front and centre. Brexit on the other hand........
I dont think islamophobia is particularly a vote loser for the far right. They might even make it a central policy if Javid is Tory leader.
Is Javid a Muslim? I’m sure I read somewhere that he is an avowed atheist
A non-practicing Muslim is iirc his position.
I doubt such detail will matter to the knuckle draggers who worship Tommy.
A thought on polling. UKIP at 7%..... unless they get heavy backing ftom somewhere they can probably only afford to stand a few dozen candidates. Might make a big difference to the result
I am sure our Russian friends will oblige.
I think UKIP will be a marginal force in the next GE, their racism will be front and centre. Brexit on the other hand........
I dont think islamophobia is particularly a vote loser for the far right. They might even make it a central policy if Javid is Tory leader.
Is Javid a Muslim? I’m sure I read somewhere that he is an avowed atheist
He's Muslim enough for people who hate Muslims.
Lol! Excellent Sean. Do we still do 'Post Of The Year' contests? If so, I nominate this.
Has anyone considered that another referendum might result in a win for Leave? Recent polling (including this morning's Kantar poll) seems pretty tight.
Yes. Frequently! This is one of the reasons (tho not the main one nor only one) why I want May's deal to be signed.
While appreciating the summit isn't until 6pm, I find it mildly noteworthy TMay's doing PMQs in between Paris/Berlin yesterday and Brussels tonight.
As well as her dutiful commitment to doing her stint in the Commons, it probably shows where she feels the balance of her persuasive skills are most needed (or for critics, where she can do the least harm in the next 5 hours )
A thought on polling. UKIP at 7%..... unless they get heavy backing ftom somewhere they can probably only afford to stand a few dozen candidates. Might make a big difference to the result
I am sure our Russian friends will oblige.
I think UKIP will be a marginal force in the next GE, their racism will be front and centre. Brexit on the other hand........
I dont think islamophobia is particularly a vote loser for the far right. They might even make it a central policy if Javid is Tory leader.
Is Javid a Muslim? I’m sure I read somewhere that he is an avowed atheist
A non-practicing Muslim is iirc his position.
I doubt such detail will matter to the knuckle draggers who worship Tommy.
Aye.
Has become a lot worse since UKIP became the political wing of the EDL.
No different really to all the other polls, both parties well down on last general election to early mid 30s, UKIP and LDs up, Corbyn PM of a minority government with SNP support
Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
Yes but via a general election not another referendum.
Why can we ask the people to vote again on who represents them, but not on Brexit?
Doesn't sound very democratic...
*SIGH*
Because we asked them in 2016 and they gave a decision but Parliament has refused to implement that decision so we need a general election to sort out how or whether that decision will be be implemented.
You had one of those in 2017. The public decided that it would rather not crush the saboteurs.
But in 2017 both parties stood on leave manifestos as you know...
Another reason why we need an election to sort this out one way or another is to stop us going round and round in circles with the same arguments ad infinitum on here...
If you want to ask the public a question about Brexit, ask them a question about Brexit. Don't call an election where they may decide, as last time, to vote on completely different grounds.
Wonderful lack of consistency from Meeks. But why should we be surprised. The 2016 result is not valid because - well I suppose because leave won and Meeks doesn't like that. And first he cites the 2017 election as an indicator of a lack of public support for Brexit and then in his next response says elections are not a good indicator of public views for or against Brexit. Basically he will cite any example, no matter how inconsistent or contradictory, as an argument against Brexit.
The Tories will get off more lightly than they deserve, due to the shortage of serious opponents, and due to the fact that no one party is getting the lion's share of the anti-government vote.
Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.
So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%.
Remain/Revoke leads on 33% but Deal or May's Deal combined gets more support on 36%, however add Remain/Revoke to Deal plus Customs Union and you get to 46%.
That confirms the median voter still wants Brexit but with a slightly softer Deal than May's current one so she is moving in the right direction
On the other hand, the Titanic made it three-quarters of the way across the Atlantic... Less sarcastically, I don't think people have ever really worked out how to cope with recent polls. In this specific instance, best wait to see if this is a blip.
Labour's antisemitism will not lose them more votes. They have already lost anyone who was going to change their vote on that basis.
In some areas and some communities sadly it probably gains them votes. And outside north London - perhaps only Barnet - it probably has little downside overall. The Jewish community is quite small - barely 300,000? - and heavily concentrated.
Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.
So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
Has anyone considered that another referendum might result in a win for Leave? Recent polling (including this morning's Kantar poll) seems pretty tight.
It's entirely possible. I'd make Remain clear favourite but not out of sight. The drawback for Leave next time is that it would need to coalesce around a form of Leave. That would lose it votes. On the other hand, the public would not take kindly to being asked the same question again.
Why would Leave need to coalesce around a form of Leave? Johnson et al. are going to promise unicorns that fix all problems and avoid all trade-offs.
I'd make Leave slight favourites given a) they won last time b) resentment of politicians has increased c) Remain don't have a leader d) I don't think many people have changed their mind on the issue.
Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.
So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.
So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.
So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
Fair enough. We are, though, thanks to this whole debacle, in a Hobson's choice of horseshit outcomes
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Ok they couldn't campaign remain against their own deal (front bench) - their silence could be costly in the referendum and electorally
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
That is one advantage Labour always has - the referendum offers a chance to keep supporters from both sides on board. Whereas the Tories are tied to and will sink with Brexit.
If Macron were to play hardball then the obvious counter strategy is revoke A50 and hold a fresh referendum. It isn't actually a bad idea and is possibly better than a long extension. In the event of another leave vote exit could be achieved in less than two years I suspect.
Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.
So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
You can, there is comfortably more support for all the Brexit options combined than Remain/Revoke
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Ok they couldn't campaign remain against their own deal (front bench) - their silence could be costly in the referendum and electorally
Maybe. But I have plenty of arguments from people who think Cameron should have stayed out of the 2016 referendum. (He'd probably still be PM if he had, whichever way the referendum went.)
Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.
I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26
Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Ok they couldn't campaign remain against their own deal (front bench) - their silence could be costly in the referendum and electorally
Maybe. But I have plenty of arguments from people who think Cameron should have stayed out of the 2016 referendum. (He'd probably still be PM if he had.)
Yes but via a general election not another referendum.
Why can we ask the people to vote again on who represents them, but not on Brexit?
Doesn't sound very democratic...
*SIGH*
Because we asked them in 2016 and they gave a decision but Parliament has refused to implement that decision so we need a general election to sort out how or whether that decision will be be implemented.
You had one of those in 2017. The public decided that it would rather not crush the saboteurs.
But in 2017 both parties stood on leave manifestos as you know...
Another reason why we need an election to sort this out one way or another is to stop us going round and round in circles with the same arguments ad infinitum on here...
If you want to ask the public a question about Brexit, ask them a question about Brexit. Don't call an election where they may decide, as last time, to vote on completely different grounds.
Wonderful lack of consistency from Meeks. But why should we be surprised. The 2016 result is not valid because - well I suppose because leave won and Meeks doesn't like that. And first he cites the 2017 election as an indicator of a lack of public support for Brexit and then in his next response says elections are not a good indicator of public views for or against Brexit. Basically he will cite any example, no matter how inconsistent or contradictory, as an argument against Brexit.
You misunderstand my position I do not - yet - think there is a requirement to ask the people their views in any form.
However, if that point is reached, logically a referendum is a better way to do it if you want an answer about Brexit than an election designed for a different purpose that may well be answered on different grounds.
As it happens, I think Leavers should be agitating for a referendum now. It is by far their best chance of securing Brexit now. If, as looks likely, the whole debate slithers off to a time tbc, by the time the public are eventually consulted about it the victory for Remain will be not far off a foregone conclusion.
It's hardly the type of economic performance that should be getting the public to put out the bunting, is it? Leavers are suffering from the soft bigotry of low expectations.
Winning hearts and minds with an SLR again I see.....
Oh I see!!!
The constant SLR thing is an insult! Jeez you are subtle. Great show.
Why not take it back a bit, say Lee Enfield? Hit it hard.
The Short Lee Enfield might be a bit modern for the average Brexit supporter
We had the .22 chambered LE in the Combined Cadet Force at my school. It was very accurate (I could shoot good groups at 100m with it at age 14!) but it took an inordinately long amount of time to get the Parker-Hales "competition" sight zeroed. I wouldn't have fancied trying to do it while facing a Zug of rampaging Fallschirmjager in WW2.
We also had a 7.62 Mosin-Nagant (fuck knows where that came from) but no ammo or firing pin for it so I never got a go on that 500m+ man killer.
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Ok they couldn't campaign remain against their own deal (front bench) - their silence could be costly in the referendum and electorally
Maybe. But I have plenty of arguments from people who think Cameron should have stayed out of the 2016 referendum. (He'd probably still be PM if he had.)
Ugh, Cameron in his 9th year as PM. Yuck
I know. But which would you rather, Cameron or May as PM?
If Macron were to play hardball then the obvious counter strategy is revoke A50 and hold a fresh referendum. It isn't actually a bad idea and is possibly better than a long extension. In the event of another leave vote exit could be achieved in less than two years I suspect.
If this happened, the EU would almost certainly say that the withdrawal agreement from last time is the only option and wouldn't agree to any other negotiations. To negotiate again would make a mockery of their processes. So before going into a second invocation of A50 we would need to have settled the question of deal or no deal.
Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.
I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26
Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
John, we are now mid term of the most incompetent government I can recall, one totally incapable of getting its primary policy through the Commons, doesn't have a majority, has Labour back benchers passing legislation against their wishes, which regularly and consistently loses ministers (albeit mainly ones no one has ever heard of), which has an organisation within it which successfully whips against the government's own policy, who seem to have largely forgotten that they ever had any other policy, the leader of which is generally thought to have days until she resigns in ignominy and defeat and you are happy you got a tie????
Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.
I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26
Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
Your last sentence is really the only thing that matters here. This is not a blip.
My feeling is that a lot of people* were exasperated with the Tories but thought that pragmatism would prevail at the last minute. The collapse appears to me to be aligned with the shambles of EV3, the indicative votes, and the presence of Mark Francois on every bloody media outlet every bloody day. The core perception of the Tories as "sometimes a bit nasty but basically reasonable and competent" has changed. Their pro-business, pro-growth credentials have also evaporated. That resonates in a nation of shopkeepers.
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Ok they couldn't campaign remain against their own deal (front bench) - their silence could be costly in the referendum and electorally
They could campaign for remain against their own deal. Simply, we think remaining in the EU is the best option available but in the event that you do not wish to do so, this deal is a fine alternative. They wouldn't be able to trash the deal though, and Corbyn himself would probably stay completely silent (but then again he did that last time) because he's a leaver at heart. Would be a tricky balance to maintain but Labour have proved themselves to be champion fence sitters so far
It's hardly the type of economic performance that should be getting the public to put out the bunting, is it? Leavers are suffering from the soft bigotry of low expectations.
Great phrase. It isn't that exciting although it is better than most of the EZ countries can manage. A low bar, admittedly.
If Macron were to play hardball then the obvious counter strategy is revoke A50 and hold a fresh referendum. It isn't actually a bad idea and is possibly better than a long extension. In the event of another leave vote exit could be achieved in less than two years I suspect.
If this happened, the EU would almost certainly say that the withdrawal agreement from last time is the only option and wouldn't agree to any other negotiations. To negotiate again would make a mockery of their processes. So before going into a second invocation of A50 we would need to have settled the question of deal or no deal.
Indeed. Once Leavers had decided amongst themselves whether they want the agreed Deal or No Deal, they could put that to the country in a Deal versus Remain or a No Deal versus Remain referendum.
Second ref - the reason i doubt there could be one if lab and con cook up a deal is labour would be forced to campaign to accept their own deal (I.e. leave) which would break them alongside the idiot blues
Not really - Labour could just say we're leaving it for the people to decide.
Ok they couldn't campaign remain against their own deal (front bench) - their silence could be costly in the referendum and electorally
Maybe. But I have plenty of arguments from people who think Cameron should have stayed out of the 2016 referendum. (He'd probably still be PM if he had.)
Ugh, Cameron in his 9th year as PM. Yuck
I know. But which would you rather, Cameron or May as PM?
Comments
7/1 winners do not grow on trees!
Also why would you go back so far? Polls from January aren't particularly relevant any more.
Where do you get that from Andy?
10%, however, is past the tipping point, so the Brexit Party would win 6 - 8 seats.
I am however guilty of thinking she comes across as dumb as a brick when interviewed by political pundits.
And I have no idea what her "work ethnic" would be!!
It is her ability to avoid answering questions by regurgitating the party talking points at excruciating length, during just about every interview, which grates with me.
The constant SLR thing is an insult! Jeez you are subtle. Great show.
Why not take it back a bit, say Lee Enfield? Hit it hard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
What size hat? A woolly one would be fairly easy to digest but I am sure suitable options can be offered.
I doubt such detail will matter to the knuckle draggers who worship Tommy.
That was incorrect.
Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
As well as her dutiful commitment to doing her stint in the Commons, it probably shows where she feels the balance of her persuasive skills are most needed (or for critics, where she can do the least harm in the next 5 hours
Tusk's schedule for the day suggests a fair few important people are in town beforehand had she wanted to firm up any support over there.. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/president/calendar/
Has become a lot worse since UKIP became the political wing of the EDL.
https://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2019/04/its-extraordinarily-bad-conservative-councillors-on-how-the-local-election-campaign-is-going.html
Remain/Revoke leads on 33% but Deal or May's Deal combined gets more support on 36%, however add Remain/Revoke to Deal plus Customs Union and you get to 46%.
That confirms the median voter still wants Brexit but with a slightly softer Deal than May's current one so she is moving in the right direction
Less sarcastically, I don't think people have ever really worked out how to cope with recent polls. In this specific instance, best wait to see if this is a blip.
Johnson et al. are going to promise unicorns that fix all problems and avoid all trade-offs.
I'd make Leave slight favourites given a) they won last time b) resentment of politicians has increased c) Remain don't have a leader d) I don't think many people have changed their mind on the issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2019/apr/09/brexit-breakdown-affluence-decay-and-fury-in-the-tory-heartlands-video
https://metro.co.uk/2016/06/30/this-guy-won-110million-bet-thanks-to-brexit-5976780/
I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26
Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
ETA: something or other to do with the value of the pound according to the Mail.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3666800/Harrow-educated-hedge-fund-manager-won-110MILLION-betting-Britain-vote-Brexit-pound-tumble.html
However, if that point is reached, logically a referendum is a better way to do it if you want an answer about Brexit than an election designed for a different purpose that may well be answered on different grounds.
As it happens, I think Leavers should be agitating for a referendum now. It is by far their best chance of securing Brexit now. If, as looks likely, the whole debate slithers off to a time tbc, by the time the public are eventually consulted about it the victory for Remain will be not far off a foregone conclusion.
We also had a 7.62 Mosin-Nagant (fuck knows where that came from) but no ammo or firing pin for it so I never got a go on that 500m+ man killer.
My feeling is that a lot of people* were exasperated with the Tories but thought that pragmatism would prevail at the last minute. The collapse appears to me to be aligned with the shambles of EV3, the indicative votes, and the presence of Mark Francois on every bloody media outlet every bloody day. The core perception of the Tories as "sometimes a bit nasty but basically reasonable and competent" has changed. Their pro-business, pro-growth credentials have also evaporated. That resonates in a nation of shopkeepers.
* yes, this is probably projection
Edit: not impossible it is the same family.