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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomin

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomination contenders younger than 72yo Trump

While we have all been focused on the developments on Brexit there has been a lot of movement in the fight for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House race. This starts the hot up in a few weeks when the first of the Dem Primary TV debate debates is held.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 11
    First - Like Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party in the EU elections

    (you heard it here first :D )
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    edited April 11
    grrr
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,370
    edited April 11
    Third like Mayor Pete in New Hampshire.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,205
    Reposted in this thread


    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.

    The whole centre setup is a big enough topic for a thread header, it is currently ill adapted to the kind of broad church ideal that left and right still hold to, even if in those places it is in retreat. The Lib Dems should have been set up to be alive to this, given a decent part of their last growth cycle was due the ultimately efficient way they handled the SDP split, that major fractures in UK politics occur in most generations (albeit Libs had their share), and that they are likely to calve to the centre as to the fringes. They should have in their organisation vulcanologists, looking at what seismicity is brewing and suggesting responses, they should have a constitution that envisages how they work across the centre and present a face to new fragments, and they should be as efficient as Mike Ashley in chasing down the opportunities that present themselves.

    We should be at the stage already where there are broad understandings between the at least 27 MPs who occupy that corner of the commons, not just on issues like Brexit, but on electoral strategy. If this needs some Clause 4 type surgery on constitutions, if this needs local associations to be set up ready to cooperate, please do that work, but start now - do not be afraid of those few who think social democrat and old school liberal wings are already an uncomfortably broad church (clue: no, you are not a classical liberal even if you read the Orange Book) and huff off to wear a slightly deeper shade of orange.

    Do it, do it now, let's get to a point where local LD, CHUK, Plaid, Green have a mechanism that allows for local alliances to come to agreements on candidates to put forward. Something that, even if not everywhere, works in many places. And let's work, on a more limited basis, with the SNP (non contention in Grampian and Edinburgh S perhaps plus develop a clear set of principles within the core cooperation group on how referenda and devolution power changes are conducted) and towards something broader than the Alliance in NI (preferably before the SDLP realign cross border).

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 195
    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    FPT:
    IanB2 said:

    May's plan: (IMHO)

    - keep the parliamentary session running
    - Labour discussions go nowhere
    - options vote process late April (detail sorted out during the recess)
    - use preferential voting to force an outcome
    - accept whatever emerges as the will of the house (avoids her making concessions personally)
    - hope the final preference then passes a yes/no vote
    - deal/ignore the matter of a future leader undoing everything
    - hope/whip to avoid the PV amendment passing
    - endeavour to get the WAIB through in time to avoid the EU elections
    - departure date in May or June

    We may end up with the Remain side doing the filibustering i

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    Their regional set ups are active. Once they pass the EC they need to start standing in some local by elections, get out there and build some database. I think they stand to fare better than the SDP
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    Happy to remind you of that forecast at the end of May. The EU elections have never generated much interest anyway, and the the last occasion they took place independent of Local Elections was in 1999 when turnout was just 24%.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515
    FPT
    dyedwoolie said:
    ' Polling is mixed on it. Their party status will be sorted in the next couple of weeks and they already have regional set ups in place. Theh should start figuring in local by elections over the summer.
    If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map'.

    But the SDP on its own was scoring 30% plus in hypothetical polls in Spring 1981 prior to the Warrington by election held in July that year. TIG are not in the same ball park - more akin to KilroySilk's Veritas!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 195
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    Happy to remind you of that forecast at the end of May. The EU elections have never generated much interest anyway, and the the last occasion they took place independent of Local Elections was in 1999 when turnout was just 24%.
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Biden and Sanders are now clearly the top tier for the Democratic nomination in the polls but Buttigieg leads the chasing pack
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,520
    edited April 11
    Sean_F said:


    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.


    Might well be right. With Brexit-motivated voters, UKIP could probably have done pretty well here, but Farage will sabotage them. Ditto LDs with the CHUK(a) party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 11
    Pro_Rata said:

    Reposted in this thread


    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.

    The whole centre setup is a big enough topic for a thread header

    (Snip)

    We should be at the stage already where there are broad understandings between the at least 27 MPs

    Do it, do it now, let's get to a point where local LD, CHUK, Plaid, Green have a mechanism that allows for local alliances to come to agreements on candidates to put forward. Something that, even if not everywhere, works in many places. And let's work, on a more limited basis, with the SNP (non contention in Grampian and Edinburgh S perhaps plus develop a clear set of principles within the core cooperation group on how referenda and devolution power changes are conducted) and towards something broader than the Alliance in NI (preferably before the SDLP realign cross border).

    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in candidate selection, and enable the prospect of a non-MP party leader. All intended to create flexible structures that could be used to embrace whatever wider movement or defections might arise. Since TIG was formed he has also tried to engage with them positively, without much of a response.

    The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    TIG is very much like the SDP between 81-83: a reasonable size group in Parliament, most clinging to the idea that they still hold to the values of their previous party (which that party has abandoned), very Westminster focused and with a negative view of the LibDems and little understanding of what it means to be and campaign as a third party in our political system. The SDP was exactly like this in 82, with an army of new members most entirely new to politics, thinking that their decent poll ratings would propel them into a position of influence. The 1983 election, where almost all the defecting MPs lost their seats and the Liberals became the 'senior' party both in parliament and in the country, was the shock the SDP needed to realise the weakness of its position and started the process of rethinking that eventually led to merger.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    If it is close to that then that further legitimises Dave's decision to hold an EU Referendum in the first place. There was a huge effectively disenfranchised group of people who had no option to achieve what almost to the exclusion of all else (for what else was UKIP other than a single issue pressure group) believed important.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 11
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    I think given those turning out for the Euro elections will be disproportionately motivated for or against Brexit both the Brexit Party and CUK could challenge Labour and the Tories for first place
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, it wasn't exactly the Gordian Knot of legal judgements.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275
    Pulpstar said:
    "He did not give evidence."
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 195
    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    Happy to remind you of that forecast at the end of May. The EU elections have never generated much interest anyway, and the the last occasion they took place independent of Local Elections was in 1999 when turnout was just 24%.
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    dyedwoolie said:
    ' Polling is mixed on it. Their party status will be sorted in the next couple of weeks and they already have regional set ups in place. Theh should start figuring in local by elections over the summer.
    If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map'.

    But the SDP on its own was scoring 30% plus in hypothetical polls in Spring 1981 prior to the Warrington by election held in July that year. TIG are not in the same ball park - more akin to KilroySilk's Veritas!

    Time will tell. The SDP threw away a golden opportunity imo by throwing in their lot with the liberals and their unsavory characters and cover up leader. Tiggers are slow burners and high bouncers
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,131
    New Hampshire PPP poll, Republican primary, April 13th 2015:

    Scott Walker 24% (the Wisconsin governor, not the singer!)
    Ted Cruz 14%
    Rand Paul 12%
    Jeb Bush 10%
    Marco Rubio 8%
    Chris Christie 8%
    Mick Huckabee 7%
    Ben Carson 7%
    Rick Perry 4%
    Other/Not sure 7%

    Jus' sayin'
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,498
    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Last election in 2014 resulted (before subsequent defections) in: UKIP 24, Lab20, Con 19, Green 3, LD 1, SNP 2, Plaid 1, SF 1, DUP 1, UUP 1. Given that people were voting for party lists not individual MPs, it is better to measure the changes from the 2014 benchmark, not from where MEPs are aligned now. But, to repeat a point from the previous thread, what little this new kid on the block reveals their untested methodology infers a more than usual risk of systemic bias in this result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    Happy to remind you of that forecast at the end of May. The EU elections have never generated much interest anyway, and the the last occasion they took place independent of Local Elections was in 1999 when turnout was just 24%.
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.
    This time the media is full of trailers.

    And both remainers and leavers will be urging people to use them to make their view on the biggest political issue of our lifetime known.

    Not so good for the big parties, especially the Tories (Labour at least has its activists)

    Hence May is still thinking she can avoid the elections altogether. Very clear from her answers today.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 47
    HYUFD said:

    Biden and Sanders are now clearly the top tier for the Democratic nomination in the polls but Buttigieg leads the chasing pack

    I'm surprised Harris has faltered so quickly. She seemed quite fresh compared to Warren who is damaged goods after that Native American debacle.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    Most people really are not that interested - whichever way they voted in June 2016. Were that not so, the LDs would have prospered far more.
    As a separate point, what could well prove highly toxic for the TIG MPS would be a failure to support a VONC tabled by Corbyn. Were that to occur, Labour can effectively label them as 'Tories Little Helpers'.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    I don't think the proportion is as high as 55-60%. They have the potential to do well, certainly, but they have several competitors.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515
    edited April 11

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    dyedwoolie said:
    ' Polling is mixed on it. Their party status will be sorted in the next couple of weeks and they already have regional set ups in place. Theh should start figuring in local by elections over the summer.
    If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map'.

    But the SDP on its own was scoring 30% plus in hypothetical polls in Spring 1981 prior to the Warrington by election held in July that year. TIG are not in the same ball park - more akin to KilroySilk's Veritas!

    Time will tell. The SDP threw away a golden opportunity imo by throwing in their lot with the liberals and their unsavory characters and cover up leader. Tiggers are slow burners and high bouncers
    We shall see - but I really do not expect them to register much at all.
    The SDP had little choice back in the 1980s other than to reach a deal with the Liberals. As it was , few seats were won - but a split vote would have proved disastrous for both parties.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275
    RH1992 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden and Sanders are now clearly the top tier for the Democratic nomination in the polls but Buttigieg leads the chasing pack

    I'm surprised Harris has faltered so quickly. She seemed quite fresh compared to Warren who is damaged goods after that Native American debacle.
    With Biden a false leader, I think a fair few are within a shout.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 195
    edited April 11
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    .
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    .
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.

    Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.


    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Good poll in S Carolina as well.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,845
    edited April 11
    Sean_F said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    I don't think the proportion is as high as 55-60%. They have the potential to do well, certainly, but they have several competitors.
    Given that EU residents in the UK can vote in the EP elections, but not in the referendum, it might be getting towards that.

    Edit to add: I should think EU residents turnout for the EP elections will be proportionally far higher than that of the electorate as a whole. They will be supremely motivated to do so.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275

    New Hampshire PPP poll, Republican primary, April 13th 2015:

    Scott Walker 24% (the Wisconsin governor, not the singer!)
    Ted Cruz 14%
    Rand Paul 12%
    Jeb Bush 10%
    Marco Rubio 8%
    Chris Christie 8%
    Mick Huckabee 7%
    Ben Carson 7%
    Rick Perry 4%
    Other/Not sure 7%

    Jus' sayin'

    The Dems are the ones with the historical record of outsiders.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    You’ve got to laugh at the ERG now constantly calling for May to go. They must realise that they have lost all influence and ability to shape the outcome when May opened talks with Corbyn.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275

    Good poll in S Carolina as well.

    ?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    .
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    .
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.

    Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.


    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
    I think I can claim to have been reasonably consistent in my election forecasts.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Gore Vidal and Pamela Anderson trending on twitter. Two sides of America.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    They are about to go on holiday for two whole weeks. Clearly they see no urgency in this issue.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 195
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)

    .
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    .
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.

    Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.


    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
    I think I can claim to have been reasonably consistent in my election forecasts.
    As in, Theresa May's consistency? :D Being stuck like a broken record, or failing to listen to others, isn't a quality to be admired especially with the fast-moving sands of Brexit where compromise and flexibility are now required.

    Anyway, there are good compelling reasons for suggesting that TIG might do very well indeed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    edited April 11
    RobD said:

    They are about to go on holiday for two whole weeks. Clearly they see no urgency in this issue.
    They may as well go on holiday until 30th October, because nothing this set of MPs do will make any difference now as far as I can see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668


    Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)

    .
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    .
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.

    Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.


    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
    I think I can claim to have been reasonably consistent in my election forecasts.
    As in, Theresa May's consistency? :D Being stuck like a broken record, or failing to listen to others, isn't a quality to be admired especially with the fast-moving sands of Brexit where compromise and flexibility are now required.

    Anyway, there are good compelling reasons for suggesting that TIG might do very well indeed.
    No - based on psephological analysis and awareness of electoral history.Wishful thinking is pointless.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,205
    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in candidate selection, and enable the prospect of a non-MP party leader. All intended to create flexible structures that could be used to embrace whatever wider movement or defections might arise. Since TIG was formed he has also tried to engage with them positively, without much of a response.

    The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    TIG is very much like the SDP between 81-83: a reasonable size group in Parliament, most clinging to the idea that they still hold to the values of their previous party (which that party has abandoned), very Westminster focused and with a negative view of the LibDems and little understanding of what it means to be and campaign as a third party in our political system. The SDP was exactly like this in 82, with an army of new members most entirely new to politics, thinking that their decent poll ratings would propel them into a position of influence. The 1983 election, where almost all the defecting MPs lost their seats and the Liberals became the 'senior' party both in parliament and in the country, was the shock the SDP needed to realise the weakness of its position and started the process of rethinking that eventually led to merger.

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

  • FenmanFenman Posts: 566
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    I think given those turning out for the Euro elections will be disproportionately motivated for or against Brexit both the Brexit Party and CUK could challenge Labour and the Tories for first place
    Everyone seems to be forgetting that the local elections will be three weeks before the Euros. The Lib Dems will do very well and the Tiggers will not feature at all....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 11

    New Hampshire PPP poll, Republican primary, April 13th 2015:

    Scott Walker 24% (the Wisconsin governor, not the singer!)
    Ted Cruz 14%
    Rand Paul 12%
    Jeb Bush 10%
    Marco Rubio 8%
    Chris Christie 8%
    Mick Huckabee 7%
    Ben Carson 7%
    Rick Perry 4%
    Other/Not sure 7%

    Jus' sayin'

    Trump not included, nor second place Kasich. Cruz was third, second in that poll. Walker did not run
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,657

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)

    .
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    .
    Well I said, 'they might well' not that they would, so it's not a forecast. It's worth a punt though for sure as I can see the scenario for it.

    Turnout is a total irrelevance in this context.

    The most passionate voters are likely to be Remainers, followed by some forms of Brexit. Lab and Cons will be in big trouble, especially the latter.

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.

    Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.


    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
    I think I can claim to have been reasonably consistent in my election forecasts.
    As in, Theresa May's consistency? :D Being stuck like a broken record, or failing to listen to others, isn't a quality to be admired especially with the fast-moving sands of Brexit where compromise and flexibility are now required.

    Anyway, there are good compelling reasons for suggesting that TIG might do very well indeed.
    No - based on psephological analysis and awareness of electoral history.Wishful thinking is pointless.
    UKIP won the 2014 Euro elections
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,498
    IanB2 said:



    This time the media is full of trailers.

    And both remainers and leavers will be urging people to use them to make their view on the biggest political issue of our lifetime known.

    Not so good for the big parties, especially the Tories (Labour at least has its activists)

    Hence May is still thinking she can avoid the elections altogether. Very clear from her answers today.

    Goodness, is she that out of touch, even by her own standards? Now that there are nearly 6 months to go until the next deadline, we must be back to potential majorities against the WA in the ball park of 100 or even 200. Tory MPs who want her gone may not be able to abandon their party in a VONC, but they can at least threaten to heap the maximum humiliation on her while she insists on staying, and one such way is to vote against her WA. So I cannot see any prospect of her bringing back the WA in the near future. Nor is there really any reason for Labour to offer her a lifeline, as this would be fraught with danger for Corbyn too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    IanB2 said:



    This time the media is full of trailers.

    And both remainers and leavers will be urging people to use them to make their view on the biggest political issue of our lifetime known.

    Not so good for the big parties, especially the Tories (Labour at least has its activists)

    Hence May is still thinking she can avoid the elections altogether. Very clear from her answers today.

    Goodness, is she that out of touch, even by her own standards? Now that there are nearly 6 months to go until the next deadline, we must be back to potential majorities against the WA in the ball park of 100 or even 200. Tory MPs who want her gone may not be able to abandon their party in a VONC, but they can at least threaten to heap the maximum humiliation on her while she insists on staying, and one such way is to vote against her WA. So I cannot see any prospect of her bringing back the WA in the near future. Nor is there really any reason for Labour to offer her a lifeline, as this would be fraught with danger for Corbyn too.
    My comment downthread sets out very precisely what I believe she will do.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,520
    RobD said:


    They are about to go on holiday for two whole weeks. Clearly they see no urgency in this issue.

    It's not like the Commons does anything wrt Brexit anyway, other than vote no to everything.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 195
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)

    .
    .
    .

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true because if anything it undermines your current* position. The lower the turnout, the more likely it is to inflate those with strong opinions on the EU question, which means ardent Remainers. I would suggest Brexiteers, but the same doesn't quite apply because 1. they'd be contesting something in which they don't believe and 2. they are already being encouraged to boycott it.

    Hence why I think TIG could do superbly and win outright.


    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
    I think I can claim to have been reasonably consistent in my election forecasts.
    As in, Theresa May's consistency? :D Being stuck like a broken record, or failing to listen to others, isn't a quality to be admired especially with the fast-moving sands of Brexit where compromise and flexibility are now required.

    Anyway, there are good compelling reasons for suggesting that TIG might do very well indeed.
    No - based on psephological analysis and awareness of electoral history.Wishful thinking is pointless.
    I don't think it's based on anything of the sort. The European Elections will be fought on Brexit. And how. As has been pointed out, UKIP won them last time.

    Does the EU matter? Well, those fed up of all this may not vote but I can assure you that Remainers will be pushed hard to vote for TIG. So it will be a battle royal between TIG and Brexit parties, with the added problem that for the latter the elections shouldn't be happening and they're to an institution in whom they don't believe.

    I think the greatest traction will be for the pro-Remain EU parties. As has been mentioned on here, the UK currently has the most passionately pro-European voters in the whole of Europe.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125



    Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.

    Make Madonna Prime Minister:

    Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.

    Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 11
    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in candidate selection, and enable the prospect of a non-MP party leader. All intended to create flexible structures that could be used to embrace whatever wider movement or defections might arise. Since TIG was formed he has also tried to engage with them positively, without much of a response.

    The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    TIG is very much like the SDP between 81-83: a reasonable size group in Parliament, most clinging to the idea that they still hold to the values of their previous party (which that party has abandoned), very Westminster focused and with a negative view of the LibDems and little understanding of what it means to be and campaign as a third party in our political system. The SDP was exactly like this in 82, with an army of new members most entirely new to politics, thinking that their decent poll ratings would propel them into a position of influence. The 1983 election, where almost all the defecting MPs lost their seats and the Liberals became the 'senior' party both in parliament and in the country, was the shock the SDP needed to realise the weakness of its position and started the process of rethinking that eventually led to merger.

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    My personal view remains that the next election should be fought on a broad alliance with a cross-party platform to reform politics and defeat the two old tired parties, and as much standing down to allow one candidate to carry the banner as possible. Such an arrangement would have to be nailed down between the parties as separate organisations; it was never realistic to expect the LibDems to be able to gather everyone in as supporters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    A friend of mine sent a "Next Tory leader" contest facebook post out, the 4 contenders were Tom Watson, Tony Blair (The left love Ol' Tone !), Chuka Umunna and some other bod.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    May is done. Javid now on Assange.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 11
    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Yougov's latest Euro elections poll has Leavers going Brexit Party 21%, Tories 14%, UKIP 12%, Labour 5%.

    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%, Labour 16%, LD 11%, Tories 9%


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g5fjrnocck/Results_190329_EUElecetion_w.pdf
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,501



    Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.

    Make Madonna Prime Minister:

    Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.

    Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
    She's a True Blue though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    IanB2 said:

    May is done.

    We can only hope... :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    I think given those turning out for the Euro elections will be disproportionately motivated for or against Brexit both the Brexit Party and CUK could challenge Labour and the Tories for first place
    Everyone seems to be forgetting that the local elections will be three weeks before the Euros. The Lib Dems will do very well and the Tiggers will not feature at all....
    Maybe but Euros PR unlike locals
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,657
    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,498
    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Given that Labour now appear well on the way to delivering Remain by indulging in a prolonged can kicking exercise, there is not a lot to chose in terms of Brexit between them and CHUK.

    Brexit aside, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 11
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    They don't, apart from one obscure Welsh poll all the polls I have seen show CUK getting mainly Remainers and the Brexit Party mainly Leavers


  • Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.

    Make Madonna Prime Minister:

    Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.

    Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
    She's a True Blue though.
    She is, her former mother in law was the Chairman of Kensington and Chelsea Tories.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1383782/Madonna-is-role-model-for-Tory-women.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977



    Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.

    Make Madonna Prime Minister:

    Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.

    Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
    Is the UK ready for a PM that has let her coochie hang out for all to see?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 11
    Yes the poor dears need a rest because the past few weeks of stitching up a democratic referendum has just been so traumatic for them..
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,657

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Given that Labour now appear well on the way to delivering Remain by indulging in a prolonged can kicking exercise, there is not a lot to chose in terms of Brexit between them and CHUK.

    Brexit aside, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
    Yup, it's been obvious for ages that the softest part of Labour's vote was the more working-class, elderly, more Brexit-supporting voters (the people who clutch their pearls at Corbyn's "links to the IRA" or not supporting Trident or whatever). For now, a lot of them seem to be finding the Tiggers as an empty vessel to project their ideal Labour Party onto - though whether that survives a campaign where the leading Tigger politicians make clear that they stand for the exact opposite of that is another question.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)

    .
    .
    .

    Turnout is far from being totally irrelevant. Local Election results pass most people by - and that is even more true of the EU elections. Only political anoraks tend to notice them at all.

    In the context you used it, turnout is a complete irrelevance. Actually, that's not quite true

    * in deliciously patronising fashion, I'm assuming you won't hold onto this stance for too much longer
    I think I can claim to have been reasonably consistent in my election forecasts.
    As in, Theresa May's consistency? :D Being stuck like a broken record, or failing to listen to others, isn't a quality to be admired especially with the fast-moving sands of Brexit where compromise and flexibility are now required.

    Anyway, there are good compelling reasons for suggesting that TIG might do very well indeed.
    No - based on psephological analysis and awareness of electoral history.Wishful thinking is pointless.
    I don't think it's based on anything of the sort. The European Elections will be fought on Brexit. And how. As has been pointed out, UKIP won them last time.

    Does the EU matter? Well, those fed up of all this may not vote but I can assure you that Remainers will be pushed hard to vote for TIG. So it will be a battle royal between TIG and Brexit parties, with the added problem that for the latter the elections shouldn't be happening and they're to an institution in whom they don't believe.

    I think the greatest traction will be for the pro-Remain EU parties. As has been mentioned on here, the UK currently has the most passionately pro-European voters in the whole of Europe.
    Wait and see! TIG have little in the way of brand recognition - indeed many will not have heard of them UKIP was already firmly established by 2014 , having performed strongly in the same elections of 2009 & 2004 - and in particular they had broken through at the Eastleigh by election in February 2013 and the local elections held the same year. TIG have no such track record - nor do they have personalities which the general public relate to in the way that was true of people such as Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams and David Owen in the early 1980s.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976



    Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.

    Make Madonna Prime Minister:

    Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.

    Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
    Come on, prorogue
    Let your Brexit go with the flow
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 443
    edited April 11



    Last time that May "used" a break, she came back with the idea of holding a GE.

    Make Madonna Prime Minister:

    Let love shine, and we will find a way to come together can make things better.

    Though she's getting on a bit now to be Prime Minister.
    Is the UK ready for a PM that has let her coochie hang out for all to see?
    Seeing as the Commons is stuffed full of utter coochies anyway, she's got nothing that would be out of place there.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,226
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Given that Labour now appear well on the way to delivering Remain by indulging in a prolonged can kicking exercise, there is not a lot to chose in terms of Brexit between them and CHUK.

    Brexit aside, if you are looking for the former Labour voting working class demographic that is alienated by Corbyn's takeover of the Labour party and will thus support a breakaway party, previous Labour Leave voters are more typical of that than previous Labour Remain voters.
    Yup, it's been obvious for ages that the softest part of Labour's vote was the more working-class, elderly, more Brexit-supporting voters (the people who clutch their pearls at Corbyn's "links to the IRA" or not supporting Trident or whatever). For now, a lot of them seem to be finding the Tiggers as an empty vessel to project their ideal Labour Party onto - though whether that survives a campaign where the leading Tigger politicians make clear that they stand for the exact opposite of that is another question.
    You make being suspicious of Corbyn IRA love sound like a bad thing
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    The point re. TIG at the Euro Elections is that they have at their potential disposal the c. 55%-60% of the electorate who currently want to remain in the EU. Labour are playing a dicey game with them at best and the LibDems aren't overly popular.

    There are some vociferous campaigners in TIG. Anna Soubry might not be everyone's cup of tea but she's formidable.

    I can see them doing very well.

    But the thing is that CHUK, to the extent they've cut through to the public at all, do not even seem to be viewed as an anti-Brexit party particularly,

    The perception seems to be that they're just an alternative Labour Party without Corbyn as leader. To be fair, there is quite a lot of (superficial) support for that idea, although ironically a lot of that support is from Labour Leave voters - a YouGov Welsh poll last week found the Tiggers getting slightly more support from Leave voters (10%) than from Remain voters (8%): https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7x606awuh5/Results_WelshBarometer_April2019_w.pdf
    Yougov's latest Euro elections poll has Leavers going Brexit Party 21%, Tories 14%, UKIP 12%, Labour 5%.

    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%, Labour 16%, LD 11%, Tories 9%


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g5fjrnocck/Results_190329_EUElecetion_w.pdf
    There is no such party as the 'Stay in the EU Party' and to simply assign that figure to CUK is bonkers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,138
    edited April 11
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 11
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.

    A party called Change UK would logically be one that wanted Change rather than the status quo, so it could be fooling people
  • Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.

    A party called Change UK would logically be one that wanted Change rather than the status quo, so it could be fooling people
    CHange UK = CHUKA Party :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    Here's a favourable long profile of Pete Buttigieg:

    https://www.wired.com/story/pete-buttigieg-revived-south-bend-with-tech-up-next-america

    As much as the detail contained in it is the fact that there are plenty of these profiles being written, and read. He looks set to be a very serious contender and I am not laying him at anything like present prices.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 11
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    In the context of a Euro election Brexit has changed entirely the meaning of centrist

    The spectrum is LibDem - TIG - Labour - Tory - Brexit - UKIP
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,205
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in candidate selection, and enable the prospect of a non-MP party leader. All intended to create flexible structures that could be used to embrace whatever wider movement or defections might arise. Since TIG was formed he has also tried to engage with them positively, without much of a response.

    The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    Snip

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    My personal view remains that the next election should be fought on a broad alliance with a cross-party platform to reform politics and defeat the two old tired parties, and as much standing down to allow one candidate to carry the banner as possible. Such an arrangement would have to be nailed down between the parties as separate organisations; it was never realistic to expect the LibDems to be able to gather everyone in as supporters.
    Yes, I think we are on pretty much exactly the same page there. The means of doing the cooperation needs to sit external from the LD party, but it doesn't mean the LDs can't be prime movers in setting up and curating that cooperation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Isam, reminds me of Yes, Prime Minister, with the broadcast. If there's no change, high energy yellow wallpaper. If there's change, traditional oak panelling.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,138

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    This conversation isn't adding anything to the site.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
    Spoiling your ballot paper doesn't depress turnout.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862

    Here's a favourable long profile of Pete Buttigieg:

    https://www.wired.com/story/pete-buttigieg-revived-south-bend-with-tech-up-next-america

    As much as the detail contained in it is the fact that there are plenty of these profiles being written, and read. He looks set to be a very serious contender and I am not laying him at anything like present prices.

    I'm a bit annoyed with myself as I had to reback him after thinking stuff through - best to take medicine whilst it is cheap though.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,515
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
    Spoiling your ballot paper doesn't depress turnout.
    Was that what he suggested?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,226

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    Your post tells more about who you are than me. I guess you are one of the more thuggish Tommy Robinson type Leave voter, ah thought so, and you still believe in it? dear dear. Sorry to spoil your day but Father Christmas isn't....whoops better not say.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    This conversation isn't adding anything to the site.
    I had to Google the Garrick Club !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    Your post tells more about who you are than me. I guess you are one of the more thuggish Tommy Robinson type Leave voter, ah thought so, and you still believe in it? dear dear. Sorry to spoil your day but Father Christmas isn't....whoops better not say.
    I always thought he was a fireman.
  • AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    This conversation isn't adding anything to the site.
    It's been batshite since June 2016. Maybe time for a change.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    I think there will be a greater determination to vote this time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:


    To be fair to Vince (of whose leadership I am a critic), this was behind his package of constitutional changes to create a supporters network, allow non members to stand as candidates, allow supporters a say in candidate selection, and enable the prospect of a non-MP party leader. All intended to create flexible structures that could be used to embrace whatever wider movement or defections might arise. Since TIG was formed he has also tried to engage with them positively, without much of a response.

    The constitutional changes got mauled at the LibDem Spring Conference, members identifying that they were being of stripped of being the primary decision makers. Conference agreed to create a supporters network but with none of the proposed powers.

    Snip

    Thanks for this. As a casual and not currently aligned keyboard warrior, the sort who rightly get a bit of stick off the leafletteer class, it's good to have a proper perspective.

    It says a lot that I'd totally forgotten Vince's reforms! What I would say is that they seem geared more to sucking non aligneds such as the Tiggers into the LD bucket as per the SPD. Less obvious to me from how you describe them how they could have been used to ally with the well established Green and Nations contingents.

    It just needs a bit of lateral thinking as to how enabling people to register as 'supporters', allowing supporters to choose candidates and to allow non-party members to be selected might be used.

    Unfortunately for Vince, LibDem members aren't stupid.

    My personal view remains that the next election should be fought on a broad alliance with a cross-party platform to reform politics and defeat the two old tired parties, and as much standing down to allow one candidate to carry the banner as possible. Such an arrangement would have to be nailed down between the parties as separate organisations; it was never realistic to expect the LibDems to be able to gather everyone in as supporters.
    Yes, I think we are on pretty much exactly the same page there. The means of doing the cooperation needs to sit external from the LD party, but it doesn't mean the LDs can't be prime movers in setting up and curating that cooperation.
    It does however need TIG to take off for that to happen, with the LibDems prepared to take more of a back seat. If TIG catches voters' imagination it could be game on, depending critically on whether a cross-party deal ideally rowing in PC and the Greens too (Scotland is slightly awkward but the SNP is pro-reform; just let them win). If TIG flops, it'll be back to politics as usual, since I don't see a scenario where the LibDems alone could get sufficient traction to defeat FPTnP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Remainers go 'Stay in EU Party' ie CUK 18%

    My whole point is that I don't think the public see CHUK as a "stay in EU party", since most polls show they're getting a lot of their support from Leave voters.
    It tells you all you need to know about a large number of people who vote Leave. They probably wouldn't even recognise a Theresa May in an identity parade made up of members of the Garrick club.
    Thank fuck PB isn't remotely representative of real life. People like you shouldn't exist in real life.
    Your post tells more about who you are than me. I guess you are one of the more thuggish Tommy Robinson type Leave voter, ah thought so, and you still believe in it? dear dear. Sorry to spoil your day but Father Christmas isn't....whoops better not say.
    I could be wrong, but I've always understood him to be a Labour Eurosceptic.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
    Spoiling your ballot paper doesn't depress turnout.
    Next year is Spoilt Ballot time - Police & Crime Commissar elections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.

    Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
    Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
    I think the idea that they have 'largely been forgotten by the electorate at large' is rather cavalier.

    TIG have a huge opportunity at the European Elections and the considerable potential traction of being a genuine party for change, thus tapping in to a zeitgeist.

    If they are passed by the Electoral Commission, which I expect, then they might well win the overall ballot. It's certainly worth a bet.
    I think the Euro elections are their best chance to make a difference.

    Right now I'd expect overall results to be something like:-

    Labour 22%,
    Conservative 20%
    Brexit 14%
    UKIP 12%
    Change 10%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Green 6%.

    The last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after the local elections, in 1999, the turnout was a very low 24% because people don't like having to vote twice in such a short time. If that happens again it'll probably benefit the parties with the most determined voters, which generally aren't centrist parties.
    There is an element of truth in that , but it is likely that this year many Leave voters will be inclined to boycott the elections so depressing turnout. The MEP Roger Helm has already advocated this.
    Spoiling your ballot paper doesn't depress turnout.
    Was that what he suggested?
    Isn't he the "write Brexit in big letters" guy?
This discussion has been closed.