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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – the contest that’s taken the political world by surprise –

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look in detail at the prospects for EU parliamentary elections in the UK now that Brexit has been delayed up to a further 6 months.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,587
    1st
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    2nd like the Scottish Greens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976
    FPT

    In today's weird moves on Betfair markets, Penny Mordaunt was last matched at 3 for next Prime Minister. Clearly the punter thinks she is going to be a Prime Minister of a government of national unity because she was last matched at 40 for next Conservative leader.

    It doesn’t sound like she’s the right person to turn to.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,054
    Biden serenely ahead in IA, NH, CA. We like to think this is an excitingly close race, but so far it really isn't. Of course, if he doesn't run it's another matter.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    It's interesting that his inappropriate hugging etc. hasn't hurt him. Possibly Trump has set such a low bar on sexual harassment that it seems silly to worry about the odd hug when debating who should challenge him.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,054
    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897
    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,598

    Biden serenely ahead in IA, NH, CA. We like to think this is an excitingly close race, but so far it really isn't. Of course, if he doesn't run it's another matter.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    It's interesting that his inappropriate hugging etc. hasn't hurt him. Possibly Trump has set such a low bar on sexual harassment that it seems silly to worry about the odd hug when debating who should challenge him.

    Biden was Vice President for eight years so is the best-known candidate. It would be mildly interesting to know in what proportion his supporters see him as Biden or as continuity-Obama.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240
    Charles said:



    I agree. But this is a defensive fight on territory that your opponent has chosen. You expend political capital and leech energy and attention from you agenda to protect a pawn.

    If the tory party isn't going to defend the government jobs of despicable old right wing twats who chat shit about jews in the New Statesman then what are they for?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    Assange put hundreds of lives at risk and jumped bail to avoid facing rape charges in Sweden, but he’s anti-American and for the Labour leadership that’s all that matters.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    John Humphries: Assange didn't go back to face charges of rape in Sweden.
    DA: He was never charged.
    JH: In Sweden you have to be present to be charged.
    DA: He was never charged.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,978

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    She was doing it on the Today programme, claiming that the rape allegations could be ignored because no charges were brought and ignoring the fact that no charges could be brought because the self-regarding and arrogant booby that is Julian Assange refused to answer any questions from the Swedish prosecutor.

    Sadly, Humphries didn’t ask her whether she agreed with Corbyn’s decision to vote for the Extradition Act which makes extradition to the US so much easier.

    Still, it’s good to be reminded that sexual assaults against women don’t matter when the alleged perpetrator is a friend of yours or someone you admire or someone who doesn’t like Americans (some of the time anyway). And good to know that it is a female politician, fond of preening herself for her feminist credentials, coming up with such a steaming pile of ordure.

    By “good” I mean, of course, ”depressing” and “infuriating”.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    Dr P,

    "On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage."

    I know which will be the easiest to sell. 'The middle class poshos have stolen the referendum. You didn't really think they'd let you make a decision, did you? If Remain had won, you'd be told to accept the result and shut up. Are you going to accept that?'

    You can defend the MPs and explain why it's been Parliament at its best, but … good luck with that one.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,988
    Why is there seemingly an assumption that the EU elections will be a softening step to Brexit? It's entirely possible The Brexit Party will win, and looks fairly likely they'll beat the LDs and Change UK.

    Similarly with a general election. If someone won a decent majority that party would almost certainly have campaigned on a specific Brexit policy which would have a solid chance of passing right after. It seems more likely to me that that policy would be Customs Union or FTA than second referendum or Single Market.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    TOPPING said:

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    John Humphries: Assange didn't go back to face charges of rape in Sweden.
    DA: He was never charged.
    JH: In Sweden you have to be present to be charged.
    DA: He was never charged.
    We want an Abbot versus Francois debate. Moron on moron tongue violence
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    Yep. Assange can’t possibly be guilty of a sexual assault in Sweden because Americans don’t like him, and if Amercians don’t like him then by definition he’s innocent of everything - or something like that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Cyclefree said:

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    She was doing it on the Today programme, claiming that the rape allegations could be ignored because no charges were brought and ignoring the fact that no charges could be brought because the self-regarding and arrogant booby that is Julian Assange refused to answer any questions from the Swedish prosecutor.

    Sadly, Humphries didn’t ask her whether she agreed with Corbyn’s decision to vote for the Extradition Act which makes extradition to the US so much easier.

    Still, it’s good to be reminded that sexual assaults against women don’t matter when the alleged perpetrator is a friend of yours or someone you admire or someone who doesn’t like Americans (some of the time anyway). And good to know that it is a female politician, fond of preening herself for her feminist credentials, coming up with such a steaming pile of ordure.

    By “good” I mean, of course, ”depressing” and “infuriating”.
    Diane Abbott herself voted for it too, don't forget.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Scott_P said:
    Bourbon.

    They have forgotten nothing and learnt nothing.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275

    Biden serenely ahead in IA, NH, CA. We like to think this is an excitingly close race, but so far it really isn't. Of course, if he doesn't run it's another matter.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    It's interesting that his inappropriate hugging etc. hasn't hurt him. Possibly Trump has set such a low bar on sexual harassment that it seems silly to worry about the odd hug when debating who should challenge him.

    Of course it's hurt him.

    Serial flip flopper Biden will find fewer enthusiastic people around him
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668

    Biden serenely ahead in IA, NH, CA. We like to think this is an excitingly close race, but so far it really isn't. Of course, if he doesn't run it's another matter.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    It's interesting that his inappropriate hugging etc. hasn't hurt him. Possibly Trump has set such a low bar on sexual harassment that it seems silly to worry about the odd hug when debating who should challenge him.

    Of course it's hurt him.

    Serial flip flopper Biden will find fewer enthusiastic people around him
    Being ahead before the first primary debate surely means very little.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    I agree. But this is a defensive fight on territory that your opponent has chosen. You expend political capital and leech energy and attention from you agenda to protect a pawn.

    If the tory party isn't going to defend the government jobs of despicable old right wing twats who chat shit about jews in the New Statesman then what are they for?
    It appears to be pretty much all it's for currently.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    I can't see the Tories doing that well in the EU elections. They haven't a coherent strategy to unite behind. They may have a small sympathy vote for Mrs May, a woman being buffeted from all sides, but is it enough to make it worth going out to vote. Abstain is more likely.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,309

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    They#'ve known that for years. Without Brexit Corbyn would have been ditched ages ago.

    Brexit is the best thing to have ever happened to Corbyn since his Euro trip with young Diane all those years ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    CD13 said:

    I can't see the Tories doing that well in the EU elections. They haven't a coherent strategy to unite behind. They may have a small sympathy vote for Mrs May, a woman being buffeted from all sides, but is it enough to make it worth going out to vote. Abstain is more likely.

    Or Brexit Party
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    David Coburn & Susanne Evans are in apparently, whether that's a bonus or not..
    On R4 this am Farage said that they'd be putting up a raft of high achievers & household names from all walks of life as candidates for the Euros. Looking forward to that list.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    CD13 said:

    I can't see the Tories doing that well in the EU elections. They haven't a coherent strategy to unite behind. They may have a small sympathy vote for Mrs May, a woman being buffeted from all sides, but is it enough to make it worth going out to vote. Abstain is more likely.

    I think they will struggle to get high teens % and quite possibly be in the 12 to 15 range
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749
    edited April 12

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    Remember that the Greens received more votes in the last EU elections in 2014 than the Lib Dems. The Remainier than Labour vote could well be split three ways.

    Edit: Or four ways, if you remember the Nationalists in Wales and Scotland that I forgot.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    David Coburn & Susanne Evans are in apparently, whether that's a bonus or not..
    On R4 this am Farage said that they'd be putting up a raft of high achievers & household names from all walks of life as candidates for the Euros. Looking forward to that list.
    https://thebrexitparty.org/meet-our-candidates/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    David Coburn & Susanne Evans are in apparently, whether that's a bonus or not..
    On R4 this am Farage said that they'd be putting up a raft of high achievers & household names from all walks of life as candidates for the Euros. Looking forward to that list.
    "high achievers & household names" ?

    Tim Martin.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Biden serenely ahead in IA, NH, CA. We like to think this is an excitingly close race, but so far it really isn't. Of course, if he doesn't run it's another matter.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    It's interesting that his inappropriate hugging etc. hasn't hurt him. Possibly Trump has set such a low bar on sexual harassment that it seems silly to worry about the odd hug when debating who should challenge him.

    Possibly, the spate of allegations, some of them poorly-founded, over the past couple of years, has generated its own reaction.

    People are certainly angry that rapists and molesters have got away with it for so long, but also fed up with the kind of scatter-gun approach that some campaigners take.

    Biden is overly tactile, but no one is claiming he's a rapist.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,469
    If change UK and the Lib Dems cannot form some kind of alliance for the EU elections then they deserve to crash and burn at the next election. It would be a clear case of egos getting in the way and throwing away an opportunity to make a real impact in what will clearly be the next proxy referendum. So far though there doesn't seem to be much movement towards any alliance, mostly seems like the CUK side are reluctant to do so.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    Remember that the Greens received more votes in the last EU elections in 2014 than the Lib Dems. The Remainier than Labour vote could well be split three ways.

    Edit: Or four ways, if you remember the Nationalists in Wales and Scotland that I forgot.
    Labour will take a pounding too. Low 20s. They will do disproportionately better in the SE and horribly in the north imo
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    David Coburn & Susanne Evans are in apparently, whether that's a bonus or not..
    On R4 this am Farage said that they'd be putting up a raft of high achievers & household names from all walks of life as candidates for the Euros. Looking forward to that list.
    "high achievers & household names" ?

    A beauty parade of people you never knew were gammon
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    edited April 12
    F1: Bottas topped second practice.

    May set up a small hedge (backed him at 9 for pole, each way) on the Ladbrokes Exchange but they've hidden it a bit. It doesn't appear under Extra Markets, but can be found through the drop-down menu. Little clunky.

    Edited extra bit: or not, menu doesn't appear when I log in.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    Chris said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    David Coburn & Susanne Evans are in apparently, whether that's a bonus or not..
    On R4 this am Farage said that they'd be putting up a raft of high achievers & household names from all walks of life as candidates for the Euros. Looking forward to that list.
    https://thebrexitparty.org/meet-our-candidates/
    People shouldn't mock. One of the four candidates, Richard Tice, actually has a Wikipedia page. Admittedly it says he is a member of the Conservative Party, but I suspect that will soon be rectified.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,978
    Yes, well, given that Assange himself is fond of claiming that it’s all a Jewish conspiracy against him and has worked with Holocaust denier and Putin helper, Israel Shamir, that is hardly a surprise, is it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    If change UK and the Lib Dems cannot form some kind of alliance for the EU elections then they deserve to crash and burn at the next election. It would be a clear case of egos getting in the way and throwing away an opportunity to make a real impact in what will clearly be the next proxy referendum. So far though there doesn't seem to be much movement towards any alliance, mostly seems like the CUK side are reluctant to do so.

    @Iain pointed out yesterday how difficult it would be to form a joint slate in the amount of available time but yes, there's a real risk that they just split the non-Labour pro-EU vote.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    Mr F,

    "Biden is overly tactile, but no one is claiming he's a rapist."

    His problem is he comes over as being a bit creepy nowadays. Not a good look. Politics is about appearance.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,978
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    She was doing it on the Today programme, claiming that the rape allegations could be ignored because no charges were brought and ignoring the fact that no charges could be brought because the self-regarding and arrogant booby that is Julian Assange refused to answer any questions from the Swedish prosecutor.

    Sadly, Humphries didn’t ask her whether she agreed with Corbyn’s decision to vote for the Extradition Act which makes extradition to the US so much easier.

    Still, it’s good to be reminded that sexual assaults against women don’t matter when the alleged perpetrator is a friend of yours or someone you admire or someone who doesn’t like Americans (some of the time anyway). And good to know that it is a female politician, fond of preening herself for her feminist credentials, coming up with such a steaming pile of ordure.

    By “good” I mean, of course, ”depressing” and “infuriating”.
    Diane Abbott herself voted for it too, don't forget.
    It just gets better and better, doesn’t it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    I'm wondering what the Tory equivalent of Labour finishing 6th behind Mebyon Kernow in Cornwall in 2009 might be? Fifth in a whole region? Behind the Greens in London? 4th overall on vote share?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 19,885
    CD13 said:

    I can't see the Tories doing that well in the EU elections.

    I think that might be a significant understatement. And they will deserve it.

    They should have refused to put up candidates - would have spiked Farage's guns.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    Chris said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    David Coburn & Susanne Evans are in apparently, whether that's a bonus or not..
    On R4 this am Farage said that they'd be putting up a raft of high achievers & household names from all walks of life as candidates for the Euros. Looking forward to that list.
    https://thebrexitparty.org/meet-our-candidates/
    That's put my gas at a peep.

    'Her research interests are in liberal education, literature and aesthetic knowledge'

    I'm all for a bit of aesthetic knowledge.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    F1: Bottas topped second practice.

    May set up a small hedge (backed him at 9 for pole, each way) on the Ladbrokes Exchange but they've hidden it a bit. It doesn't appear under Extra Markets, but can be found through the drop-down menu. Little clunky.

    Was just writing the same. Little to choose between Ferrari and Mercedes here, and usually the silver cars pick up the pace more on Saturday than the red ones.

    Bottas is 12.5 to win the race on Betfair, Lewis is 4.5. Probably value in both. Sadly their Q market hasn’t got going yet.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    edited April 12
    Mr Woollie,

    "A beauty parade of people you never knew were gammon."

    Is that a compliment? If not, some could accuse you of an insult based on skin colour. A racist, in fact. I wouldn't, but only because it is quite funny.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,978

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,025
    CD13 said:

    Mr Woollie,

    "A beauty parade of people you never knew were gammon."

    Is that a compliment? If not, some could accuse you of an insult based on skin colour. A racist, in fact. I wouldn't, but only because it is quite funny.

    The day I give a compliment will be a sad day indeed. All are fools that stand before us.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Sandpit, I was quite surprised by how quickly the stock has risen and odds shortened on Ferrari. It's true they were good in Bahrain, but they were last year too.

    Hmm. Is there fifth the odds top three for the race win on Ladbrokes, or just third the odds top 2? I might back Bottas for the former, but the latter is less tempting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Is that really news to you? I mean, the Islington children's home scandal should have demonstrated that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
    Well, for Beria anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. F, the Montefiore book?

    It's alarmingly grim and sinister, and I was a little depressed I knew so little about such things beforehand (although it wasn't quite the chasm of ignorance I had about the Eastern Roman Empire).
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 12
    isam said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,978
    edited April 12
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Is that really news to you? I mean, the Islington children's home scandal should have demonstrated that.
    No, it’s not news. (Edited: see also how the Socialist Workers Party dealt with rape allegations against its founder, Gerry Healey, or even how the Labour Party dealt with a more recent rape allegation by one of its activists.)

    But I live in hope that principles / values mean something, that they should inform actions. More fool me.

    Anyway, I’m off to look at bathroom showrooms. This week has been a good week with one contract signed, approval for another work project finally received and some new work requested, with luck to be confirmed on Monday. So I can dream about what I might spend some of my earnings on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    I know cartoonists get a hard time here, but I quite liked this.

  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,404
    Sean_F said:

    If change UK and the Lib Dems cannot form some kind of alliance for the EU elections then they deserve to crash and burn at the next election. It would be a clear case of egos getting in the way and throwing away an opportunity to make a real impact in what will clearly be the next proxy referendum. So far though there doesn't seem to be much movement towards any alliance, mostly seems like the CUK side are reluctant to do so.

    @Iain pointed out yesterday how difficult it would be to form a joint slate in the amount of available time but yes, there's a real risk that they just split the non-Labour pro-EU vote.
    Because its members come from larger parties, I think CUK may be more arrogant and less experienced. The result with FPTP or d'Hondt can be oblivion. 6% of the EU vote doesn't mean several MEPs, it probably means none.

    The Lib.Dems have harsh experience of being squashed by larger parties due to the unfairness of FPTP.

    I'm surprised that the EU accepted this pathetic apology for PR. I think after the shock of the 1989 EU elections when the Greens got 15% and no seats it may have told the UK government that future EU voting had to be 'proportional'. This was the result.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275
    isam said:

    isam said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    Assuming we put Labour down as pro-EU and the Tories down as anti-EU, don't you think that at least some importance wil be placed on who gets most seats? Who the largest single winner of seats or votes is?

    I'm not suggesting it is like a GE where every seat counts at small majorities, but it will set at least some of the tone.



  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,587

    Mr. F, the Montefiore book?

    It's alarmingly grim and sinister, and I was a little depressed I knew so little about such things beforehand (although it wasn't quite the chasm of ignorance I had about the Eastern Roman Empire).

    Have you seen The Death of Stalin? It does a magnificent job of conveying the grim and sinister stuff while also being of the funniest films ever made.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    edited April 12
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
    Well, for Beria anyway.
    Beria was not unique, by any means, even though he was the worst. He enjoyed murdering and torturing women, as well as raping them.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228
    A new day, new bullshit. Farage on the radio doing his thing. Corbyn doing his thing. Tories enjoying their circular firing squad. And we're not nearer the end of Brexit.

    What's the point?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275
    I think the Tories will bet 18-28%. That's about the widest bound I have ever placed on an election...
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 12

    isam said:

    isam said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send .

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    Assuming we put Labour down as pro-EU and the Tories down as anti-EU, don't you think that at least some importance wil be placed on who gets most seats? Who the largest single winner of seats or votes is?

    I'm not suggesting it is like a GE where every seat counts at small majorities, but it will set at least some of the tone.



    I think the most interesting result is that of UKIP + Brexit vs LD + TIG (vote percentage).
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    I know cartoonists get a hard time here, but I quite liked this.

    Pretty good
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Is that really news to you? I mean, the Islington children's home scandal should have demonstrated that.
    No, it’s not news. (Edited: see also how the Socialist Workers Party dealt with rape allegations against its founder, Gerry Healey, or even how the Labour Party dealt with a more recent rape allegation by one of its activists.)

    But I live in hope that principles / values mean something, that they should inform actions. More fool me.

    Anyway, I’m off to look at bathroom showrooms. This week has been a good week with one contract signed, approval for another work project finally received and some new work requested, with luck to be confirmed on Monday. So I can dream about what I might spend some of my earnings on.
    Sorry to go all John Loony, but Healy was Workers Revolutionary Party, not SWP.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,528
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. F, the Montefiore book?

    It's alarmingly grim and sinister, and I was a little depressed I knew so little about such things beforehand (although it wasn't quite the chasm of ignorance I had about the Eastern Roman Empire).

    Have you seen The Death of Stalin? It does a magnificent job of conveying the grim and sinister stuff while also being of the funniest films ever made.
    Lol gets overused, but I literally did during TDoS, if somewhat guiltily.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Have I missed Diane Abbot making a fool of herself this morning? It's been an unusually long time since the last time.

    She was doing it on the Today programme, claiming that the rape allegations could be ignored because no charges were brought and ignoring the fact that no charges could be brought because the self-regarding and arrogant booby that is Julian Assange refused to answer any questions from the Swedish prosecutor.

    Sadly, Humphries didn’t ask her whether she agreed with Corbyn’s decision to vote for the Extradition Act which makes extradition to the US so much easier.

    Still, it’s good to be reminded that sexual assaults against women don’t matter when the alleged perpetrator is a friend of yours or someone you admire or someone who doesn’t like Americans (some of the time anyway). And good to know that it is a female politician, fond of preening herself for her feminist credentials, coming up with such a steaming pile of ordure.

    By “good” I mean, of course, ”depressing” and “infuriating”.
    Diane Abbott herself voted for it too, don't forget.
    It just gets better and better, doesn’t it.
    This is my main problem with politicians of all stripes. The line they take should be that crimes or dealt with by the relevant legal jurisdiction and we expect due process, and won’t comment. Too many want to defend their friends and excoriate their foes before judgement. And I think this is worse for left wing parties because supporters expect higher standards and often vote for them feeling some sort of moral superiority for doing so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
    Well, for Beria anyway.
    Beria was not unique, by any means, even though he was the worst. He enjoyed murdering and torturing women, as well as raping them.

    One of my A-level textbooks profiles the three heads of the NKVD in the thirties - Yagoda, Yezhov and Beria.

    Yagoda's hobbies are said to include 'rock gardening and extreme pornography.'

    Yezhov is described as a 'tension ridden drug addicted sexual deviant.'

    Beria is described as the worst of the lot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Z, no, but it is in my saved for later list on Amazon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Is that really news to you? I mean, the Islington children's home scandal should have demonstrated that.
    No, it’s not news. (Edited: see also how the Socialist Workers Party dealt with rape allegations against its founder, Gerry Healey, or even how the Labour Party dealt with a more recent rape allegation by one of its activists.)

    But I live in hope that principles / values mean something, that they should inform actions. More fool me.

    Anyway, I’m off to look at bathroom showrooms. This week has been a good week with one contract signed, approval for another work project finally received and some new work requested, with luck to be confirmed on Monday. So I can dream about what I might spend some of my earnings on.
    Sorry to go all John Loony, but Healy was Workers Revolutionary Party, not SWP.
    He wasn't the Judaean People's Front, he was the People's Front of Judaea.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send .

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    Assuming we put Labour down as pro-EU and the Tories down as anti-EU, don't you think that at least some importance wil be placed on who gets most seats? Who the largest single winner of seats or votes is?

    I'm not suggesting it is like a GE where every seat counts at small majorities, but it will set at least some of the tone.



    I think the most interesting result is that of UKIP + Brexit vs LD + TIG (vote percentage).
    Labour being pro Eu is a myth. If Corb6n can get us out without getting the blame he will be very pleased
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. F, the Montefiore book?

    It's alarmingly grim and sinister, and I was a little depressed I knew so little about such things beforehand (although it wasn't quite the chasm of ignorance I had about the Eastern Roman Empire).

    Have you seen The Death of Stalin? It does a magnificent job of conveying the grim and sinister stuff while also being of the funniest films ever made.
    Lol gets overused, but I literally did during TDoS, if somewhat guiltily.
    Me too
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Is that really news to you? I mean, the Islington children's home scandal should have demonstrated that.
    No, it’s not news. (Edited: see also how the Socialist Workers Party dealt with rape allegations against its founder, Gerry Healey, or even how the Labour Party dealt with a more recent rape allegation by one of its activists.)

    But I live in hope that principles / values mean something, that they should inform actions. More fool me.

    Anyway, I’m off to look at bathroom showrooms. This week has been a good week with one contract signed, approval for another work project finally received and some new work requested, with luck to be confirmed on Monday. So I can dream about what I might spend some of my earnings on.
    Sorry to go all John Loony, but Healy was Workers Revolutionary Party, not SWP.
    SWP's predator was Comrade Delta.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send .


    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    Assuming we put Labour down as pro-EU and the Tories down as anti-EU, don't you think that at least some importance wil be placed on who gets most seats? Who the largest single winner of seats or votes is?

    I'm not suggesting it is like a GE where every seat counts at small majorities, but it will set at least some of the tone.



    I think the most interesting result is that of UKIP + Brexit vs LD + TIG (vote percentage).
    Labour being pro Eu is a myth. If Corb6n can get us out without getting the blame he will be very pleased
    Yes I don't accept they are anti Breixt, and fail to see the Tories as pro, given they have been in power since the referendum and we haven't left. Empty rhetoric.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
    Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,341
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Is that really news to you? I mean, the Islington children's home scandal should have demonstrated that.
    No, it’s not news. (Edited: see also how the Socialist Workers Party dealt with rape allegations against its founder, Gerry Healey, or even how the Labour Party dealt with a more recent rape allegation by one of its activists.)

    But I live in hope that principles / values mean something, that they should inform actions. More fool me.

    Anyway, I’m off to look at bathroom showrooms. This week has been a good week with one contract signed, approval for another work project finally received and some new work requested, with luck to be confirmed on Monday. So I can dream about what I might spend some of my earnings on.
    Sorry to go all John Loony, but Healy was Workers Revolutionary Party, not SWP.
    SWP's predator was Comrade Delta.
    That was a disgusting story

    Read it with disbelief.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    edited April 12
    isam said:

    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    REMAIN (LD + CH) versus LEAVE (Brexit + Ukip).

    If one side of that equation smashes the other side in aggregate votes it will go some way to answering the question, are we now a Remain or a Leave country?

    Caveats:

    1. Turnout.
    2. Labour would muddy the waters if they, as Pesto predicts, go full on REF2 for the Euros.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,376
    Jonathan said:

    A new day, new bullshit. Farage on the radio doing his thing. Corbyn doing his thing. Tories enjoying their circular firing squad. And we're not nearer the end of Brexit.

    What's the point?

    Cheer up - it may never happen.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    Interesting podcast. A map to reversing Brexit that sounds legit at last.

    1. keep pushing the can down the road for as long as necessary

    2. Corbyn goes and is replaced by say .....Emily Thornberry.

    3 . An election is called and Labour under the new leader stand on a ticket of an immediate IN/Out Referendum.

    4. Labour (together with the SNP) win handsomely

    5. We all live happily ever after

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    REMAIN (LD + CH) versus LEAVE (Brexit + Ukip).

    If one side of that equation smashes the other side in aggregate votes it will go some way to answering the question, are we now a Remain or a Leave country?

    Caveats:

    1. Turnout.
    2. Labour would muddy the waters if they, as Pesto predicts, go full on REF2 for the Euros.
    The media will inevitably focus on seats as well as votes
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
    Well, for Beria anyway.
    Beria was not unique, by any means, even though he was the worst. He enjoyed murdering and torturing women, as well as raping them.

    One of my A-level textbooks profiles the three heads of the NKVD in the thirties - Yagoda, Yezhov and Beria.

    Yagoda's hobbies are said to include 'rock gardening and extreme pornography.'

    Yezhov is described as a 'tension ridden drug addicted sexual deviant.'

    Beria is described as the worst of the lot.
    Rock gardening. Dreadful. Deviance of the worst sort. Unless the kayaking sort is intended.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
    Well, for Beria anyway.
    Beria was not unique, by any means, even though he was the worst. He enjoyed murdering and torturing women, as well as raping them.

    One of my A-level textbooks profiles the three heads of the NKVD in the thirties - Yagoda, Yezhov and Beria.

    Yagoda's hobbies are said to include 'rock gardening and extreme pornography.'

    Yezhov is described as a 'tension ridden drug addicted sexual deviant.'

    Beria is described as the worst of the lot.
    Rock gardening. Dreadful. Deviance of the worst sort. Unless the kayaking sort is intended.
    I've always suspected he was a plant.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749
    How would this look for Euro election results:
    Labour 20% (-4)
    Brexit 20% (+20)
    Conservatives 15% (-8)
    UKIP 10% (-17)
    Greens 10% (+2)
    Lib Dems 10% (+3)
    ChangeUK 5% (+5)
    SNP/PC 3% (nc)
    Others (inc. NI) 7% (-1)
    Bearing in mind I have a quarter of the Labour vote being Leavers for an overall 50:50 split on Leave:Remain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Scott_P said:
    What is the red on this map? No Labour in 1885.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important

    REMAIN (LD + CH) versus LEAVE (Brexit + Ukip).

    If one side of that equation smashes the other side in aggregate votes it will go some way to answering the question, are we now a Remain or a Leave country?

    Caveats:

    1. Turnout.
    2. Labour would muddy the waters if they, as Pesto predicts, go full on REF2 for the Euros.
    The media will inevitably focus on seats as well as votes
    That would be a mistake if people are looking to form a view of who would win a second ref
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 44,557

    What is the red on this map? No Labour in 1885.

    Gladstonians
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    Sean_F said:

    Beria was not unique, by any means, even though he was the worst. He enjoyed murdering and torturing women, as well as raping them.

    Not a proper socialist if you do that. No ifs no buts, totally against the spirit of it.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 295
    isam said:

    isam said:

    On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send dodgy tweets etc. don't arise, and it's a nice simple message for populist times: here's a meaningless election for seats which can't be used for long, why not cast a protest vote? Remainer hardliners have a trickier choice, with a risk that LibDems and ChUK split the vote, damagingly in the form of PR that Britain is using. The loyalist vote may deliver a reasonable Labour showing (though not IMO the 38% of one poll).

    UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.

    Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
    Ah I remember it well!

    Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
    Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important
    The number of seats matters in Strasbourg. In Kettering or Bristol the proportion of votes is probably more important.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.

    US: bad (period, no discussion)
    Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
    The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
    Reading At The Court of the Red Tsar, rape was plainly considered one of the perks of being a senior communist official.
    Well, for Beria anyway.
    Beria was not unique, by any means, even though he was the worst. He enjoyed murdering and torturing women, as well as raping them.

    One of my A-level textbooks profiles the three heads of the NKVD in the thirties - Yagoda, Yezhov and Beria.

    Yagoda's hobbies are said to include 'rock gardening and extreme pornography.'

    Yezhov is described as a 'tension ridden drug addicted sexual deviant.'

    Beria is described as the worst of the lot.
    Rock gardening. Dreadful. Deviance of the worst sort. Unless the kayaking sort is intended.
    Nowadays rock gardening is probably slang for some sort of extreme sexual activity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    Scott_P said:
    What is the red on this map? No Labour in 1885.
    Red is Liberal, yellow is independent Liberal/Radical/Lib-Lab.

    Although party colours tended to be more fluid in those days anyway.
This discussion has been closed.