I expect Farage will get far more publicity than Batten.
Gulf in class between those two, it has to be said. Farage is very much Eddie Large to Batten's Syd Little. And an interesting and rather disturbing question arises from drawing such a comparison. If they were to work together, as L&L so memorably did, will there be that same synergy? Will the two of them as a duo unlock something much bigger than they are capable of as individuals? One must hope not.
The next shitstorm is about to come down on the Tories. I have been informed that with the exception of 3 individuals who are standing down all existing Tory MEPS are going to be readopted despite major outrage from associations and activists at this decision. This decision has supposedly been made by the party board and has led to huge friction within the already dysfunctional organisation.
I expect Farage will get far more publicity than Batten.
Gulf in class between those two, it has to be said. Farage is very much Eddie Large to Batten's Syd Little. And an interesting and rather disturbing question arises from drawing such a comparison. If they were to work together, as L&L so memorably did, will there be that same synergy? Will the two of them as a duo unlock something much bigger than they are capable of as individuals? One must hope not.
No danger there... Farage is a narcissist who wouldn't want to share the limelight with anyone else.
Are you referring to our coterie of metropolitan types on here attacking Mr Farage in the basest form for having the temerity to offer himself up for election with views that don't align with their groupthink ?
I expect Farage will get far more publicity than Batten.
Gulf in class between those two, it has to be said. Farage is very much Eddie Large to Batten's Syd Little. And an interesting and rather disturbing question arises from drawing such a comparison. If they were to work together, as L&L so memorably did, will there be that same synergy? Will the two of them as a duo unlock something much bigger than they are capable of as individuals? One must hope not.
No danger there... Farage is a narcissist who wouldn't want to share the limelight with anyone else.
Hes not stupid enough to be associated with Tommy boosters
If we do end up with a GE, I wonder if that means a 9 party debate.... I suspect CHUK and TBP would have to be doing well in the polls to be allowed in.
I do hope not - we've had too much massdebating already in politics recently.
I’m not likely to support Farage, but he is clearly not the career political class having had a job before getting into politics. I can’t be the only one who understands that as someone who’d done PPE at uni, worked at think tank / spad / union before becoming an MP.
I fail to see the distinction. Many MPs that Farage attacks as being part of the career political class had jobs before getting into politics, he is not distinguishing them as precisely as you are claiming to do. As Benpointer, er, points out, some very senior people can claim that. Either hes a hypocrite given his own decades of political activity or hes being a fool for not being clearer in who he is attacking.
Since I think it clear he intends his attack to as wide as possible hes not being a fool. Which only leaves the hypocrisy
I’m not likely to support Farage, but he is clearly not the career political class having had a job before getting into politics. I can’t be the only one who understands that as someone who’d done PPE at uni, worked at think tank / spad / union before becoming an MP.
I fail to see the distinction. Many MPs that Farafe attacks as being part of the career political class had jobs before getting into politics, he is not distinguishing them as precisely as you are claiming to do.
For me the question is with Farage on the TV saying Brexit is great and no deal is brill, will the opinion polls swing more brexity. The PV lot have had a free hit up to now, especially as the Govt has been issuing statements about how bad they are at implementing Brexit and running the country.
Mr. Malph, it's worth remembering that Farage, whilst instrumental in Cameron promising a referendum, wasn't a help for the Leave campaign when it was actually held.
Of course, opinions may have solidified (or ossified, if you prefer) since then, but he could still put some people off.
Edited extra bit: by 'put them off' I mean turn soft Leavers to soft Remainers rather than directly turning would-be Brexit Party supporters into CUKs or Lib Dems.
What the world needs now is Mogg, Rees-Mogg It's the only thing that there's just too little of What the world needs now is Mogg, Rees-Mogg No not just for some but for everyone.
Should put it to a vote, let the great British public decide. You just know they'd go all Boaty McBoatface on them :-)
I'd suggest Wayne or Jordan.
Alex seems to me to be the best name for a child. A name your child will never have to change no matter their gender, but also not seen as a boy's name if the child is a girl or a girl's name if they're a boy. It's not a name that's particularly in fashion, or ever really out of fashion either.
Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.
US: bad (period, no discussion) Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
Honestly I don't even really understand the position Cyclefree et al are espousing. We can't extradite Assange to both Sweden and the US, right? So if we care about the sexual assault charges (which we should), isn't that all the more reason not to extradite to the US?
The first Brexit party candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg.
Sticking it to the Establishment, straight out of the gate
Yes, it is quite brilliant isn't it. A former public school, metals futures city trader who has been a MEP for twenty years manages to rant about the elite and get away with it.
This is a formulation that is specifically targeted at people who struggle to see what's what, a very large chunk of the populace, therein lies its power.
I really hope we are not in for a serious dose of what we have seen in certain other supposedly developed countries, but I rather fear we are. Farage is a top class political operator.
The next shitstorm is about to come down on the Tories. I have been informed that with the exception of 3 individuals who are standing down all existing Tory MEPS are going to be readopted despite major outrage from associations and activists at this decision. This decision has supposedly been made by the party board and has led to huge friction within the already dysfunctional organisation.
Why? Given that based on Tory policy they will only have a few months before losing their seats there seems little point in changing things.
Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.
US: bad (period, no discussion) Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
Honestly I don't even really understand the position Cyclefree et al are espousing. We can't extradite Assange to both Sweden and the US, right? So if we care about the sexual assault charges (which we should), isn't that all the more reason not to extradite to the US?
Due to the Swedish statute of limitations, the sexual assault charges cannot be prosecuted. The rape charge could be, but it's damn tight to get him jailed here, extradited, questioned, charged, tried and convicted before the August 2020 SoL runs out on that too, so the odds are the Swedes will not ask for him.
However, the Americans are not bound by statutes of limitations and have horrendously unequal extradition rights with us. So the odds are that for evading justice for years trying to dodge rape charges in Sweden, he'll end up being put on trial in the US.
If change UK and the Lib Dems cannot form some kind of alliance for the EU elections then they deserve to crash and burn at the next election. It would be a clear case of egos getting in the way and throwing away an opportunity to make a real impact in what will clearly be the next proxy referendum. So far though there doesn't seem to be much movement towards any alliance, mostly seems like the CUK side are reluctant to do so.
@Iain pointed out yesterday how difficult it would be to form a joint slate in the amount of available time but yes, there's a real risk that they just split the non-Labour pro-EU vote.
Because its members come from larger parties, I think CUK may be more arrogant and less experienced. The result with FPTP or d'Hondt can be oblivion. 6% of the EU vote doesn't mean several MEPs, it probably means none.
The Lib.Dems have harsh experience of being squashed by larger parties due to the unfairness of FPTP.
I'm surprised that the EU accepted this pathetic apology for PR. I think after the shock of the 1989 EU elections when the Greens got 15% and no seats it may have told the UK government that future EU voting had to be 'proportional'. This was the result.
The most proportionate system would be to treat the UK as a single constituency, so that 1.4% would be sufficient to win a seat.
The problem of course is the silly regions. The north east has only 3 MEPs so smaller parties have no chance of winning a seat but in the south east with 11 MEPs they do.
Why aren’t all the English regions used for the elections the same size with the same number of MEPs? Why does Kent get proportionality in representation in Brussels but not Northumberland?
Should put it to a vote, let the great British public decide. You just know they'd go all Boaty McBoatface on them :-)
I'd suggest Wayne or Jordan.
Alex seems to me to be the best name for a child. A name your child will never have to change no matter their gender, but also not seen as a boy's name if the child is a girl or a girl's name if they're a boy. It's not a name that's particularly in fashion, or ever really out of fashion either.
If it's a boy, it should be Adolf Shickelgruber Windsor.
If change UK and the Lib Dems cannot form some kind of alliance for the EU elections then they deserve to crash and burn at the next election. It would be a clear case of egos getting in the way and throwing away an opportunity to make a real impact in what will clearly be the next proxy referendum. So far though there doesn't seem to be much movement towards any alliance, mostly seems like the CUK side are reluctant to do so.
@Iain pointed out yesterday how difficult it would be to form a joint slate in the amount of available time but yes, there's a real risk that they just split the non-Labour pro-EU vote.
Because its members come from larger parties, I think CUK may be more arrogant and less experienced. The result with FPTP or d'Hondt can be oblivion. 6% of the EU vote doesn't mean several MEPs, it probably means none.
The Lib.Dems have harsh experience of being squashed by larger parties due to the unfairness of FPTP.
I'm surprised that the EU accepted this pathetic apology for PR. I think after the shock of the 1989 EU elections when the Greens got 15% and no seats it may have told the UK government that future EU voting had to be 'proportional'. This was the result.
The most proportionate system would be to treat the UK as a single constituency, so that 1.4% would be sufficient to win a seat.
The problem of course is the silly regions. The north east has only 3 MEPs so smaller parties have no chance of winning a seat but in the south east with 11 MEPs they do.
Why aren’t all the English regions used for the elections the same size with the same number of MEPs? Why does Kent get proportionality in representation in Brussels but not Northumberland?
Because the residents of Redcar can't bear to share MEPs with Hartlepool ?
No idea to be fair - the North East and Yorkshire regions should be agglomerated at least.
Edit: Just checked, the North East region includes Redcar, Cleveland & Middlesborough. The Tees should be the dividing line, the regions aren't even correct !
There is going to be a major row over the broadcasting rules during locals and EU, which should deny Farage pretty much any time, as he has no councillors and no % vote from last GE.
Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.
US: bad (period, no discussion) Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
Honestly I don't even really understand the position Cyclefree et al are espousing. We can't extradite Assange to both Sweden and the US, right? So if we care about the sexual assault charges (which we should), isn't that all the more reason not to extradite to the US?
Due to the Swedish statute of limitations, the sexual assault charges cannot be prosecuted. The rape charge could be, but it's damn tight to get him jailed here, extradited, questioned, charged, tried and convicted before the August 2020 SoL runs out on that too, so the odds are the Swedes will not ask for him.
However, the Americans are not bound by statutes of limitations and have horrendously unequal extradition rights with us. So the odds are that for evading justice for years trying to dodge rape charges in Sweden, he'll end up being put on trial in the US.
This is a formulation that is specifically targeted at people who struggle to see what's what, a very large chunk of the populace, therein lies its power.
I really hope we are not in for a serious dose of what we have seen in certain other supposedly developed countries, but I rather fear we are. Farage is a top class political operator.
We are. Sadly. And it has been repeatedly warned of, not least on this forum, and by the likes of Matt Goodwin.
Existing MPs have not helped here, indeed could be argued have given birth to this. The refusal to compromise on all sides and work through a deal has led to this point.
If change UK and the Lib Dems cannot form some kind of alliance for the EU elections then they deserve to crash and burn at the next election. It would be a clear case of egos getting in the way and throwing away an opportunity to make a real impact in what will clearly be the next proxy referendum. So far though there doesn't seem to be much movement towards any alliance, mostly seems like the CUK side are reluctant to do so.
@Iain pointed out yesterday how difficult it would be to form a joint slate in the amount of available time but yes, there's a real risk that they just split the non-Labour pro-EU vote.
Because its members come from larger parties, I think CUK may be more arrogant and less experienced. The result with FPTP or d'Hondt can be oblivion. 6% of the EU vote doesn't mean several MEPs, it probably means none.
The Lib.Dems have harsh experience of being squashed by larger parties due to the unfairness of FPTP.
I'm surprised that the EU accepted this pathetic apology for PR. I think after the shock of the 1989 EU elections when the Greens got 15% and no seats it may have told the UK government that future EU voting had to be 'proportional'. This was the result.
The most proportionate system would be to treat the UK as a single constituency, so that 1.4% would be sufficient to win a seat.
The problem of course is the silly regions. The north east has only 3 MEPs so smaller parties have no chance of winning a seat but in the south east with 11 MEPs they do.
Why aren’t all the English regions used for the elections the same size with the same number of MEPs? Why does Kent get proportionality in representation in Brussels but not Northumberland?
Because the residents of Redcar can't bear to share MEPs with Hartlepool ?
No idea to be fair - the North East and Yorkshire regions should be agglomerated at least.
Because they were divided into regions by the Major government on the basis of county boundaries using a pencil and a ruler by people who had no idea of what was actually there or indeed what life was like outside the M25.
That's how you ended up with Carlisle in the same region as Liverpool, whereas it considered it should be in the same region as Newcastle. You also have Banbury in the same region as Dover, despite the fact they have nothing in common and Kent on its own is comparable in (population) size to Northern Ireland or Wales.
Either the big regions in the South need dividing further, or the five regions in the north and midlands need merging down to two. But that will never happen, as that would be sensible.
Alex seems to me to be the best name for a child. A name your child will never have to change no matter their gender, but also not seen as a boy's name if the child is a girl or a girl's name if they're a boy. It's not a name that's particularly in fashion, or ever really out of fashion either.
Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.
US: bad (period, no discussion) Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
Honestly I don't even really understand the position Cyclefree et al are espousing. We can't extradite Assange to both Sweden and the US, right? So if we care about the sexual assault charges (which we should), isn't that all the more reason not to extradite to the US?
Due to the Swedish statute of limitations, the sexual assault charges cannot be prosecuted. The rape charge could be, but it's damn tight to get him jailed here, extradited, questioned, charged, tried and convicted before the August 2020 SoL runs out on that too, so the odds are the Swedes will not ask for him.
However, the Americans are not bound by statutes of limitations and have horrendously unequal extradition rights with us. So the odds are that for evading justice for years trying to dodge rape charges in Sweden, he'll end up being put on trial in the US.
In a US prison he gets to play the role of martyr for Press Freedom.
In a Swedish jail he's just one more sexual predator.
Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.
US: bad (period, no discussion) Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
Honestly I don't even really understand the position Cyclefree et al are espousing. We can't extradite Assange to both Sweden and the US, right? So if we care about the sexual assault charges (which we should), isn't that all the more reason not to extradite to the US?
Due to the Swedish statute of limitations, the sexual assault charges cannot be prosecuted. The rape charge could be, but it's damn tight to get him jailed here, extradited, questioned, charged, tried and convicted before the August 2020 SoL runs out on that too, so the odds are the Swedes will not ask for him.
However, the Americans are not bound by statutes of limitations and have horrendously unequal extradition rights with us. So the odds are that for evading justice for years trying to dodge rape charges in Sweden, he'll end up being put on trial in the US.
In a US prison he gets to play the role of martyr for Press Freedom.
In a Swedish jail he's just one more sexual predator.
In a US prison he's on the receiving end of sexual predators.
The first Brexit party candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg.
Sticking it to the Establishment, straight out of the gate
Yes, it is quite brilliant isn't it. A former public school, metals futures city trader who has been a MEP for twenty years manages to rant about the elite and get away with it.
That is his brilliance (although, it is the limit of any brilliance he has). Being the anti-politician in an age where, since expenses, everyone hates politicians with a vengeance. It has also served Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson very well.
The first Brexit party candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg.
Sticking it to the Establishment, straight out of the gate
Yes, it is quite brilliant isn't it. A former public school, metals futures city trader who has been a MEP for twenty years manages to rant about the elite and get away with it.
That is his brilliance (although, it is the limit of any brilliance he has). Being the anti-politician in an age where, since expenses, everyone hates politicians with a vengeance. It has also served Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson very well.
And right now, this week, everyone is hating on politicians more than they have done in decades.
The first Brexit party candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg.
Sticking it to the Establishment, straight out of the gate
Yes, it is quite brilliant isn't it. A former public school, metals futures city trader who has been a MEP for twenty years manages to rant about the elite and get away with it.
That is his brilliance (although, it is the limit of any brilliance he has). Being the anti-politician in an age where, since expenses, everyone hates politicians with a vengeance. It has also served Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson very well.
In Farages case he can point to the system having UKIP over in 2015, the fact we haven’t left despite winning the referendum, and in more personal terms, the slightly dubious way the Tories beat him in South Thanet as ways that the establishment worked against him
The first Brexit party candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg.
Sticking it to the Establishment, straight out of the gate
Yes, it is quite brilliant isn't it. A former public school, metals futures city trader who has been a MEP for twenty years manages to rant about the elite and get away with it.
That is his brilliance (although, it is the limit of any brilliance he has). Being the anti-politician in an age where, since expenses, everyone hates politicians with a vengeance. It has also served Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson very well.
Perhaps he's just espouses policies that resonate....
Still underestimating him seems like a capital idea for other parties.
Nige is an extremely skilled communicator and politician. I think one has to acknowledge that.
In fact it is dangerous not to.
In polite company a few months ago I silenced the dining table and drew all kinds of fearsome looks by observing that Nigel Farage was arguably the most successful politician in decades.
What the world needs now is Mogg, Rees-Mogg It's the only thing that there's just too little of What the world needs now is Mogg, Rees-Mogg No not just for some but for everyone.
Oh oh Rees Moggy, bam ba lam. Oh oh Rees Moggy, bam ba lam. Rees Moggy had a child, bam ba lam. Damn thing gone wild, bam ba lam. Bam ba laaaam.
In polite company a few months ago I silenced the dining table and drew all kinds of fearsome looks by observing that Nigel Farage was arguably the most successful politician in decades.
Except, he isn't.
He personally failed to get elected 7 times.
Brexit is looking less likely than ever.
He is the most successful self-promoter in decades. Makes BoZo look like a bumbling amateur.
Well, the positive of todays announcement, is he doesn't bother to hide his world view. Voters can now see what the foreign policy of a Jezza government will be shaped by.
US: bad (period, no discussion) Russia: Good (period, no discussion)
The message I’m getting is that sexual assault doesn’t matter if it’s perpetrated by lefties.
Isn't Corbyn just talking about his extradition to the US? That's nothing to do with sexual assault.
Don't interrupt pb.com tories when they are on a moralising wank fest. Morris Dancer is on the vinegars.
Honestly I don't even really understand the position Cyclefree et al are espousing. We can't extradite Assange to both Sweden and the US, right? So if we care about the sexual assault charges (which we should), isn't that all the more reason not to extradite to the US?
Due to the Swedish statute of limitations, the sexual assault charges cannot be prosecuted. The rape charge could be, but it's damn tight to get him jailed here, extradited, questioned, charged, tried and convicted before the August 2020 SoL runs out on that too, so the odds are the Swedes will not ask for him.
However, the Americans are not bound by statutes of limitations and have horrendously unequal extradition rights with us. So the odds are that for evading justice for years trying to dodge rape charges in Sweden, he'll end up being put on trial in the US.
In a US prison he gets to play the role of martyr for Press Freedom.
In a Swedish jail he's just one more sexual predator.
In a US prison he's on the receiving end of sexual predators.
He's still the righteous victim rather than the guilty criminal in that scenario. It looks like that distinction is more important to him than more material concerns.
In polite company a few months ago I silenced the dining table and drew all kinds of fearsome looks by observing that Nigel Farage was arguably the most successful politician in decades.
Well I say you spoke an undeniable truth.
Oh and your 'no smoking rule' analogy the other day, yes, very good.
Question would be, is Jez a smoker or does he smell a bit because he's been on the top deck of the bus.
That is what I used to tell my parents when I was a teenager. And it was sometimes true.
This is a formulation that is specifically targeted at people who struggle to see what's what, a very large chunk of the populace, therein lies its power.
I really hope we are not in for a serious dose of what we have seen in certain other supposedly developed countries, but I rather fear we are. Farage is a top class political operator.
Direct democracy is demagogueocracy. That is why it is such a stupid idea.
Nige is an extremely skilled communicator and politician. I think one has to acknowledge that.
In fact it is dangerous not to.
In polite company a few months ago I silenced the dining table and drew all kinds of fearsome looks by observing that Nigel Farage was arguably the most successful politician in decades.
Successful I'm not sure about, but you only have to look at the whining that is already happening to see that Farage is bloody good at getting himself and his party in the news. He is one of the best campaigners in UK politics, and a hell of a lot better than anyone from the main three parties.
In polite company a few months ago I silenced the dining table and drew all kinds of fearsome looks by observing that Nigel Farage was arguably the most successful politician in decades.
Except, he isn't.
He personally failed to get elected 7 times.
Brexit is looking less likely than ever.
He is the most successful self-promoter in decades. Makes BoZo look like a bumbling amateur.
But politician? Not so much...
Interesting take.
His raison d'etre was to get the UK to leave the EU. And true we haven't yet left. But the campaign he lived and breathed for, and was the figurehead for and embodied was successful.
"less likely than ever" - perhaps, perhaps not we shall see; it was certainly a lot more likely just after EURef2016. Plus I am not a fan of "we can't leave". Oh of course we shouldn't, and not on Francois terms, but the UK can leave the EU and might still do so.
His raison d'etre was to get the UK to leave the EU. And true we haven't yet left. But the campaign he lived and breathed for, and was the figurehead for and embodied was successful.
"less likely than ever" - perhaps, perhaps not we shall see; it was certainly a lot more likely just after EURef2016. Plus I am not a fan of "we can't leave". Oh of course we shouldn't, and not on Francois terms, but the UK can leave the EU and might still do so.
He also thought the UK leaving would lead the whole EU project collapsing, and it looks stronger than ever.
The first Brexit party candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg.
Sticking it to the Establishment, straight out of the gate
Yes, it is quite brilliant isn't it. A former public school, metals futures city trader who has been a MEP for twenty years manages to rant about the elite and get away with it.
That is his brilliance (although, it is the limit of any brilliance he has). Being the anti-politician in an age where, since expenses, everyone hates politicians with a vengeance. It has also served Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson very well.
And right now, this week, everyone is hating on politicians more than they have done in decades.
It's got so bad that millions of people that really, really dislike the guy will vote for him to stick it to the Establishment......
In polite company a few months ago I silenced the dining table and drew all kinds of fearsome looks by observing that Nigel Farage was arguably the most successful politician in decades.
Except, he isn't.
He personally failed to get elected 7 times.
Brexit is looking less likely than ever.
He is the most successful self-promoter in decades. Makes BoZo look like a bumbling amateur.
But politician? Not so much...
The opposite argument being that his main policy proposal was supported in a national referendum, after the party of government felt they needed to support a referendum to improve their prospects after Farage’s party were the most supported in 2014. In a two party system where support is disparate this seems successful. Objectively he has been moderately successful, but in our FPTP system if you are unpopular with a larger number of voters there is an increased chance of strategic voting.
On topic, it does feel like an easy one for Farage - his Brexit Party is just a vehicle for him (can anyone name anyone else in it? Apparently they exist, but invisibly), so the embarassments that other parties have with councillors who send .
UKIP will peel off a fair percentage of the vote that might otherwise follow Nigel Farage given that many people will think that it's still his party (he has a particular problem in this regard that many of his voters are low information voters). Remember, a party called An Independence From Europe tallied just under 1.5% of the vote last time and that was alleged to be a spoiler party for UKIP. The name confusion alone is likely to be a problem for Nigel Farage. UKIP will have a substantial BNP-lite constituency as well for their stridently anti-Muslim message. The fact that there are two different "mad as hell and not going to take it any longer" parties is a problem.
Labour should be favourites in my view. Not heavy favourites, but their vote should turn out as well as it ever does for Euro-elections (ie not well but it will). Something around 4/6 looks right to me for them.
Ah I remember it well!
Before the Election, 'An Independence From Europe' were going to take so many votes from UKIP by way of voters accidentally voting for them that the kippers wouldn't win the Euros... then, after Farage and Co won, and I suggested AIFE's votes could be added to UKIP's for our discussion purposes as they were clearly the party the vote was intended for, the meme that UKIP had underperformed was so strong that AIFE's votes were their property alone!
Addressing @AlastairMeeks's point, for non betting purposes, does it matter if UKIP/Brexit split the Brexit vote, or TIG/LD do the same on the other side of the fence? Going forward, we will know how motivated the different sides are from the combined vote %s. I don't think the number of seats obtained is really that important
Assuming we put Labour down as pro-EU and the Tories down as anti-EU, don't you think that at least some importance wil be placed on who gets most seats? Who the largest single winner of seats or votes is?
I'm not suggesting it is like a GE where every seat counts at small majorities, but it will set at least some of the tone.
I think the most interesting result is that of UKIP + Brexit vs LD + TIG (vote percentage).
That's a good point. Splitting the vote is important in some ways, but as we'll just be treating it as proxy referendum on Brexit it doesn't hugely matter which toaster you pop your slice of bread in.
Comments
I have been informed that with the exception of 3 individuals who are standing down all existing Tory MEPS are going to be readopted despite major outrage from associations and activists at this decision.
This decision has supposedly been made by the party board and has led to huge friction within the already dysfunctional organisation.
How dare he - doesn't he read the New Statesman ?
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1116653804504649728
Since I think it clear he intends his attack to as wide as possible hes not being a fool. Which only leaves the hypocrisy
Should put it to a vote, let the great British public decide. You just know they'd go all Boaty McBoatface on them :-)
I'd suggest Wayne or Jordan.
Of course, opinions may have solidified (or ossified, if you prefer) since then, but he could still put some people off.
Edited extra bit: by 'put them off' I mean turn soft Leavers to soft Remainers rather than directly turning would-be Brexit Party supporters into CUKs or Lib Dems.
It's the only thing that there's just too little of
What the world needs now is Mogg, Rees-Mogg
No not just for some but for everyone.
It's not a name that's particularly in fashion, or ever really out of fashion either.
And damn you to hell, spellchecker, trying to change Boudicca to the (probably) monastic revisionism of Boadicea!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn6Rds4kbFE
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1116664988826050560
This is a formulation that is specifically targeted at people who struggle to see what's what, a very large chunk of the populace, therein lies its power.
I really hope we are not in for a serious dose of what we have seen in certain other supposedly developed countries, but I rather fear we are. Farage is a top class political operator.
However, the Americans are not bound by statutes of limitations and have horrendously unequal extradition rights with us. So the odds are that for evading justice for years trying to dodge rape charges in Sweden, he'll end up being put on trial in the US.
Why aren’t all the English regions used for the elections the same size with the same number of MEPs? Why does Kent get proportionality in representation in Brussels but not Northumberland?
You know they're both going to get stung, and the only problem is you might laugh too much.
https://twitter.com/daily_star/status/1116659497941000192?s=21
No idea to be fair - the North East and Yorkshire regions should be agglomerated at least.
Edit: Just checked, the North East region includes Redcar, Cleveland & Middlesborough. The Tees should be the dividing line, the regions aren't even correct !
Problem though: half of any progress they make will end up with +UKIP votes. Many still think Farage=UKIP.
In fact it is dangerous not to.
Existing MPs have not helped here, indeed could be argued have given birth to this. The refusal to compromise on all sides and work through a deal has led to this point.
Deeply depressing.
Thank God for FPTP. Will it be enough?
It’s pretty obvious how upset he is that she hasn’t already gone.
Better than being a has-been I guess.
That's how you ended up with Carlisle in the same region as Liverpool, whereas it considered it should be in the same region as Newcastle. You also have Banbury in the same region as Dover, despite the fact they have nothing in common and Kent on its own is comparable in (population) size to Northern Ireland or Wales.
Either the big regions in the South need dividing further, or the five regions in the north and midlands need merging down to two. But that will never happen, as that would be sensible.
Surely Batten is the new Farage in terms of being the bad guy?
In a Swedish jail he's just one more sexual predator.
Perhaps he's just espouses policies that resonate....
Still underestimating him seems like a capital idea for other parties.
Oh oh Rees Moggy, bam ba lam.
Rees Moggy had a child, bam ba lam.
Damn thing gone wild, bam ba lam.
Bam ba laaaam.
I will retrieve my poncho.
He personally failed to get elected 7 times.
Brexit is looking less likely than ever.
He is the most successful self-promoter in decades. Makes BoZo look like a bumbling amateur.
But politician? Not so much...
Oh and your 'no smoking rule' analogy the other day, yes, very good.
Question would be, is Jez a smoker or does he smell a bit because he's been on the top deck of the bus.
That is what I used to tell my parents when I was a teenager. And it was sometimes true.
His raison d'etre was to get the UK to leave the EU. And true we haven't yet left. But the campaign he lived and breathed for, and was the figurehead for and embodied was successful.
"less likely than ever" - perhaps, perhaps not we shall see; it was certainly a lot more likely just after EURef2016. Plus I am not a fan of "we can't leave". Oh of course we shouldn't, and not on Francois terms, but the UK can leave the EU and might still do so.
I wish him much more similar "success"
He is never off the BBC. If they gave him as much coverage as the BNP he would have been just as successful as the BNP