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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader, a Mr. Johnson, ge

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader, a Mr. Johnson, gets his knuckles wrapped for a fake polling report

In January Mr. Johnson wrote in his Telegraph column that:

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 12
    First!

    Unlike Boris
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Second. Also unlike Boris.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Boris would not be the first politician to put his own gloss on the polling, nor will he be the last.

    It would be accurate to say that if presented with a choice between No Deal and Revoke some polls show a very small majority preferring No Deal, But, it's certainly not the preferred choice of a majority.

    As an aside, if you think the debate is toxic now, imagine if in such a referendum, the No Deal side won by 50.5% to 49.5%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    edited April 12
    Welcome, JackJack (congrats on the double first post :p ). There are definitely a fair few Brexiteers on here too!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    RobD said:
    Time for another pb.com Boris thread to get pulled within minutes?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,338
    Boris de Pfeffel's Incredibly Trick Hairstyle!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    Both YouGov and Opinium have produced polls showing No Deal marginally ahead of Remain. Survation had Remain marginally ahead of No Deal.

    But, those are the extreme options. Neither No Deal nor Remain command majority support in their own right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    edited April 12
    RobD said:
    Not a huge Boris fan, but how come this complaint gets upheld when there is polling to back up his statement; whereas when I made a complaint and where there was no polling to back up another media-political bod's assertion a few years back it was rejected ??
  • Scott_P said:
    Beeb best get on with apologising for this from Curtice then

    "Opinium has repeatedly asked voters which of five possible options should be pursued if Parliament were to reject the current deal.
    None of the options comes close to being backed by a majority.
    The most popular every time - backed on average by just over a quarter - has been to leave without a deal at all."
    9/1/19
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46735713
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    It's fortunate that the Telegraph is actually regulated. The Evening Standard isn't. I complained recently about some factual inaccuracies in one of their reports. They admitted the information had been copied from "online sources" with no attempt to check its accuracy, but refused to correct the most serious error, simply saying "this draws our correspondence to a close" when I pointed out they'd ignored that part of my complaint.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:
    Not a huge Boris fan, but how come this complaint gets upheld when there is polling to back up his statement; whereas when I made a complaint and there was no polling to back up another media-political bod's assertion a few years back it was rejected ??
    Time to complain again? :p I wonder if Boris can appeal this given the clear evidence that IPSO is wrong.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Jack, welcome to PB.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,794
    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    If you're going to be speaking to Conservative activists, you're going to get that impression. If they do manage to get Brexit over the line they may find that that is the existential threat.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    Echo chambers are funny things.

    I've mentioned before my confusion at a QT programme from Boston just before the referendum which seemed to show a strong Remain audience. I did wonder if I was in the wrong echo chamber when I went back to see the family.

    My constituency in NW England, with only 58% Leave, is by comparison, a strong Remain area. But most of the strong Leave voters seem to be Labour. Obviously, the London people know better as always, but remember … there's over 30,000 Labour voters to only 6,000 Tory voters.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    Chris said:

    It's fortunate that the Telegraph is actually regulated. The Evening Standard isn't. I complained recently about some factual inaccuracies in one of their reports. They admitted the information had been copied from "online sources" with no attempt to check its accuracy, but refused to correct the most serious error, simply saying "this draws our correspondence to a close" when I pointed out they'd ignored that part of my complaint.

    That is inevitably the case with complains to the BBC too. You get a polite email saying they strive for balance but never admit any error, even when it's glaring.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,965
    RobD said:
    Sounds like a bloody stupid - and lazy - defence from the 'Graph.

    As much as I'd like comment pieces to contain somewhat traceable citations, this is not generally the way they're done.

    But it doesn't mean that they should have assumed Boris was making it up. (Shows how little they trust him I guess!) I suppose he might not recall it upon being asked, or they might not have asked him, but the date of the piece would have been a big giveaway to the date of the poll. They can't reasonably have expected IPSOS to check for the existence of the polling themselves.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387

    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    If you're going to be speaking to Conservative activists, you're going to get that impression. If they do manage to get Brexit over the line they may find that that is the existential threat.
    I think any and all outcomes of Brexit are an existential threat for the Tory party. The only thing that changes is where it come from.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408

    RobD said:
    Sounds like a bloody stupid - and lazy - defence from the 'Graph.

    As much as I'd like comment pieces to contain somewhat traceable citations, this is not generally the way they're done.

    But it doesn't mean that they should have assumed Boris was making it up. (Shows how little they trust him I guess!) I suppose he might not recall it upon being asked, or they might not have asked him, but the date of the piece would have been a big giveaway to the date of the poll. They can't reasonably have expected IPSOS to check for the existence of the polling themselves.
    IPSOS aren’t responsible for checking the veracity of the complaints?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    We don't need to worry about opinion polls. We will shortly have two sets of actual polling that IPSO won't be able to get all het up about....

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,782
    Oh dear, Big Billy in trouble now over Gay-Gate...

    RFU to meet England's Billy Vunipola after he defended Australian's comments

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/47909515
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:
    Not a huge Boris fan, but how come this complaint gets upheld when there is polling to back up his statement; whereas when I made a complaint and there was no polling to back up another media-political bod's assertion a few years back it was rejected ??
    Time to complain again? :p I wonder if Boris can appeal this given the clear evidence that IPSO is wrong.
    Dear Sir/Madam,

    I point your attention to Dan Hodges blog published on 20th November, 2013

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100246867/a-year-ago-the-tories-were-bracing-for-a-heavy-defeat-now-theyre-going-for-the-win/

    The piece contains alot of conjcture, opinion, sources - all good normal journalistic banter -

    However the paragraph:


    To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by 2 per cent.”

    Concerns me greatly.

    I have some knowledge of how incumbency affects seats, and it does but not to 8%. Anyway Mr Hodges states it does.

    As such since this 'reran' poll is now partially in the public domain it should now be fully disclosed as per the http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects.html 's rules.

    There is of course another option that said poll simply does not exist in which case 1) of the editor's code of practice has been breached:

    So I put it to you that either the poll must be published or else Mr Hodges has breached the PCC code.

    Thank you for your time, and I trust you will deal with my complaint swiftly.

    Regards,

  • RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,965
    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Sounds like a bloody stupid - and lazy - defence from the 'Graph.

    As much as I'd like comment pieces to contain somewhat traceable citations, this is not generally the way they're done.

    But it doesn't mean that they should have assumed Boris was making it up. (Shows how little they trust him I guess!) I suppose he might not recall it upon being asked, or they might not have asked him, but the date of the piece would have been a big giveaway to the date of the poll. They can't reasonably have expected IPSOS to check for the existence of the polling themselves.
    IPSOS aren’t responsible for checking the veracity of the complaints?
    Not an expert but why expect them to stick a lot of leg-work in? If you think what you've published is factually correct, why not just demonstrate it in your defence?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    edited April 12

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862
    @RobD Clearly Han Dodges is more well liked over the PCC/IPSO dinner table than Boris !
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    Pulpstar said:

    @RobD Clearly Han Dodges is more well liked over the PCC/IPSO dinner table than Boris !

    Maybe they feel more strongly about Brexit than incumbency bias. ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
    Requires a willing executive, I would have thought.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    edited April 12
    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    The angry Tory viewpoint certainly gets an airing on this site, if you read it regularly. Of course it's a minority view, but then Tory activists are a tiny and unrepresentative minority in the country. Let's not make the mistake of projecting from the views of activist bubbles onto the whole country, without any evidence.

    That said, I agree the Tories are facing an existential crisis. Their Brexit obsessives are clearly going to vote for one of the Brexit parties, and their sensible remainers appear to be shopping around as well, judging from recent polls. Their core vote of people who just want competent economic management and a quiet life are probably looking on aghast at the chaos. And demotivated or defecting activists aren't going to be able to campaign positively or motivate supporters to turn out.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
    "Your MP worked with EU country X to sabotage Brexit and overrule how this constituency voted. We will now be under EU law and face open borders once again". Best of luck with responding to that with "We are being patriotic by staying in the EU" in Leave leaning seats.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    Which MPs have proposed revoke without a referendum?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    But the vote to leave has already been had....

    *dons flame-retardant anorak*
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,965

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    The big weakness with that poll, like all multi-option polls, is that it doesn't do a proper head-to-head and the list of boxes to tick is pretty arbitrary. Options can appear weaker simply by splitting them between more boxes.

    While your point is, I think, technically correct, and therefore the best kind of correct, it's fair to say parliamentary remain/revoke is largely seen as a fringe option - in practice "second ref with remain" largely represented "remain". If "remain" votes in the poll had been split between "parliament should do it" and "the people should do it" then this would artificially have inflated the lead "No deal" had over the remain-friendly options, which would likely have bolstered BoJo's case rather than harmed it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
    "Your MP worked with EU country X to sabotage Brexit and overrule how this constituency voted. We will now be under EU law and face open borders once again". Best of luck with responding to that with "We are being patriotic by staying in the EU" in Leave leaning seats.
    It’s william’s fantasy to be ruled over by Brussels. :D :p
  • JackJack - if the Euro elections take place it might actually help the Tories with the locals as people might not want to kick them twice (and also if May is forced to go after the Euros).

    Also bear in mind there will be no Brexit Party candidates in the locals and in my area there is one UKIP candidate standing in the entire borough.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
    "Your MP worked with EU country X to sabotage Brexit and overrule how this constituency voted. We will now be under EU law and face open borders once again". Best of luck with responding to that with "We are being patriotic by staying in the EU" in Leave leaning seats.
    Best of luck persuading ordinary members of the public to go through the Brexit process all over again.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,275
    Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    Which MPs have proposed revoke without a referendum?
    Joanna Cherry, several other SNP MPs, Paul Sweeney.

    In total 191 MPs voted to revoke A50 if an extension wasn't granted, to avoid No Deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
    "Your MP worked with EU country X to sabotage Brexit and overrule how this constituency voted. We will now be under EU law and face open borders once again". Best of luck with responding to that with "We are being patriotic by staying in the EU" in Leave leaning seats.
    Presumably that would be the Leavers who conspired with the Poles and Italians to precipitate No Deal?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,782
    edited April 12
    If Boris is getting done for this kind of selective fact usage, the Guardian are going to have to hire a full time (non-paid) intern to go through and correct Polly's columns.

    And the Mail will need a whole team of them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    If you're going to be speaking to Conservative activists, you're going to get that impression. If they do manage to get Brexit over the line they may find that that is the existential threat.
    I think any and all outcomes of Brexit are an existential threat for the Tory party. The only thing that changes is where it come from.
    Yes, that is probably right. They should have stuck to being conservative.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    Which MPs have proposed revoke without a referendum?
    Joanna Cherry, several other SNP MPs, Paul Sweeney.

    In total 191 MPs voted to revoke A50 if an extension wasn't granted, to avoid No Deal.
    Had she/they done so in January?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,862

    If Boris is getting done for this kind of selective fact usage, the Guardian are going to have to hire a full time (non-paid) intern to go through and correct Polly's columns.

    And the Mail will need a whole team of them.

    The amount of pots and kettles in this area would be enough to fill all the china cups in Buckingham Palace.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,598

    If Boris is getting done for this kind of selective fact usage, the Guardian are going to have to hire a full time (non-paid) intern to go through and correct Polly's columns.

    And the Mail will need a whole team of them.

    We can't bet on Polly or the Mail.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    Which MPs have proposed revoke without a referendum?
    Joanna Cherry, several other SNP MPs, Paul Sweeney.

    In total 191 MPs voted to revoke A50 if an extension wasn't granted, to avoid No Deal.
    Had she/they done so in January?
    Yes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


    LOL :D
  • Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


    What are these comments by Siôn Simon? I've never seen them posted on PB.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,037
    Scott_P said:
    Johnson is similar to Trump in that both are arch bullshitters, whose admirers don't care.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    A revoke decision in the face of an extension veto from an EU27 country would be easy to sell as a patriotic turning of the tables.
    "Your MP worked with EU country X to sabotage Brexit and overrule how this constituency voted. We will now be under EU law and face open borders once again". Best of luck with responding to that with "We are being patriotic by staying in the EU" in Leave leaning seats.
    Best of luck persuading ordinary members of the public to go through the Brexit process all over again.
    Ordinary members of the public just want to leave, in their minds the process happened 30 months ago and the politicians need to stop talking and get on with it.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    edited April 12
    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 48+% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    If you're going to be speaking to Conservative activists, you're going to get that impression. If they do manage to get Brexit over the line they may find that that is the existential threat.
    I think any and all outcomes of Brexit are an existential threat for the Tory party. The only thing that changes is where it come from.
    Yes, that is probably right. They should have stuck to being conservative.
    Preserving sovereign national democracy as the primary system of governance is conservative. European integration, pooled sovereignty and rule by bureaucracy is the very epitome of a utopian grand project.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    edited April 12
    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 50% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
    50% want to revoke?

    Edit: 48%+ want to revoke?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 1,760

    Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


    What are these comments by Siôn Simon? I've never seen them posted on PB.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    It's Boris being Boris and people love him for it. You can't beat a bit of cheeky mendacity.
  • On topic, what do you expect from a pervert and serial adulterer like Boris Johnson?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404
    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    Existential for the Tories? Excellent. I don't want to be in a party of frothing dolts so the sooner all of them fuck off to the Brexit Party the better. And I am aware of the associations' rage although it is more the activists within the associations than the formal associations who I have found to be almost wholly silent on the matter of Brexit. Which I think is sensible.

    And as for "forced Deal vs No Deal", very droll.

    Oh and welcome. :smile:
  • Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


    What are these comments by Siôn Simon? I've never seen them posted on PB.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Thanks.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    Welcome Jack. Always nice to have another Brexiteer on board. :)

    I agree with your sentiments entirely. This is now very, very serious for the Tories.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    edited April 12

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-march-2019-2/

    This one does, at Table V202. It gives three choices No Deal, which has 44%, a delay to Brexit which has 14%, and Revoke A.50 which has 29%.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404
    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Good point but pragmatism means that no one who is PM material would ever countenance no deal. I bet for example that May actually believed the bad deal vs no deal bollocks she spouted but was soon put right as to the sheer lunacy and therefore impossibility of such a route. As we have indeed seen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-march-2019-2/

    This one does, at Table V202. It gives three choices No Deal, which has 44%, a delay to Brexit which has 14%, and Revoke A.50 which has 29%.
    Wasn't Boris writing in January? That poll is from March
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
    Do you understand the fixed term parliaments act?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    F1: in case you missed it earlier, my pre-qualifying ramble's up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-pre-qualifying-2019.html

    Might check and see if the Ladbrokes Exchange has the fastest qualifier market up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408

    Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


    What are these comments by Siôn Simon? I've never seen them posted on PB.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Thanks.
    On the topic of novel things that have not previously been discussed here, have you heard of this rather wondrous voting system called the Alternative Vote?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
    50%+1 is not enough. It gives everyone else 14 days to try to form a government. Care to bet that no one would try, starting with Jeremy Corbyn?
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 48+% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
    Do you have a source?

    It wouldn't matter what the parties are offering. The individual MPs exposed would have voted for Revoke. That is what would cover the literature.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
    I think I'll file your prediction in between the considerable batch we've enjoyed from Tories explaining why a no deal exit in March was very likely and the batch predicting various splits in the EU and our rescue by German carmakers.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    Which MPs have proposed revoke without a referendum?
    Joanna Cherry, several other SNP MPs, Paul Sweeney.

    In total 191 MPs voted to revoke A50 if an extension wasn't granted, to avoid No Deal.
    Had she/they done so in January?
    Yes.
    Why did she write this; "the idea of a temporary cross-party government formed for the purpose of extending Article 50 in order to seek a second EU Referendum, revoke Article 50 and then hold a General Election is gaining increasing currency.", on 21 Jan if she wanted to revoke without a referendum?
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/tale-of-two-unions/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,037
    RobD said:

    Dear IPSO

    I refer you to the comments made by West Midlands MEP Siôn Simon, when he stated that "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."

    I am referring this matter to you on the basis that this statement was manifestly untrue. There was no such election, no "decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government".

    Yours faithfully

    TheWhiteRabbit


    What are these comments by Siôn Simon? I've never seen them posted on PB.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Thanks.
    On the topic of novel things that have not previously been discussed here, have you heard of this rather wondrous voting system called the Alternative Vote?
    I suspect not - but I'm sure he could rustle up a header on it, with a bit of research.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    TOPPING said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Good point but pragmatism means that no one who is PM material would ever countenance no deal. I bet for example that May actually believed the bad deal vs no deal bollocks she spouted but was soon put right as to the sheer lunacy and therefore impossibility of such a route. As we have indeed seen.
    And as many of us, your good self included, have been saying for months, in the face of Leaver assertions that May wasn't bluffing and a no deal exit was looming.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
    50%+1 is not enough. It gives everyone else 14 days to try to form a government. Care to bet that no one would try, starting with Jeremy Corbyn?
    I am sure Corbyn would try. But he would not get more than 5 Tories, nor would he get CUK, nor the DUP. He doesn't have the numbers.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 50% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
    50% want to revoke?

    Edit: 48%+ want to revoke?

    What was the Percentage who voted to remain? Do you really expect that has dropped after the last 9 months - especially after May is forced to Accept EU elections and an October 31st departure date.

    And remember the negotiations on the final deal with the EU haven’t even begun yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    edited April 12
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 50% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
    50% want to revoke?

    Edit: 48%+ want to revoke?

    What was the Percentage who voted to remain? Do you really expect that has dropped after the last 9 months - especially after May is forced to Accept EU elections and an October 31st departure date.

    And remember the negotiations on the final deal with the EU haven’t even begun yet.
    Some remainers actually respect democracy and accept the fact that Britain should leave the EU. The question for them is the flavour of Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
    50%+1 is not enough. It gives everyone else 14 days to try to form a government. Care to bet that no one would try, starting with Jeremy Corbyn?
    I am sure Corbyn would try. But he would not get more than 5 Tories, nor would he get CUK, nor the DUP. He doesn't have the numbers.
    Then your scenario collapses. If there are the numbers to vote for revoke, there are the numbers to see it though, prior to any election. If there arent the numbers to see it through, it won't have been agreed to in the first place.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    F1: ha, there's a special I've gone for. Rather unlikely, as it's 401.

    Three contingencies:
    Ferrari double podium
    Haas double top 6
    Alfa Romeo double points

    With Gasly being a bit poor so far, a single top 5 retirement might suffice for Haas to get their double top 6 finish. Alfa have been reliable so far and Giovinazzi was one place away from a point last time. Renault exploding again would be handy. It's obviously unlikely, but I do think the odds are too long. Only put down half a peanut, of course. And if it comes off I'll be bloody annoyed I didn't bet more. Yet also very pleased.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    She needs 50%+1 and the Opposition won't be able to withstand the political pressures to oppose getting the Tories out of power. "Not only do they want to overrule a public vote to keep us under the EU thumb, they now want to deny your voice in a General Election". It is untenable.
    50%+1 is not enough. It gives everyone else 14 days to try to form a government. Care to bet that no one would try, starting with Jeremy Corbyn?
    I am sure Corbyn would try. But he would not get more than 5 Tories, nor would he get CUK, nor the DUP. He doesn't have the numbers.
    If Parliament has just voted to revoke, there will be a majority in Parliament for a different configuration from that currently on offer. 14 days will be ample to establish who can lead it.

  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Guido is being disingenuous.

    That polling doesn't back up the assertions made by Boris Johnson.

    “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.”

    Any poll that didn't contain an explicit Remain/Revoke doesn't back the claims Boris made. That series of polls by Opinium didn't include an explicit Remain/Revoke option.
    Isn’t that wound up in the option for a referendum on remaining, or are you suggesting that such an action should be done without a vote?
    No. It needs to be an explicit remain/revoke choice. This option that can lead to leaving.

    Opinium have an option of 'Leave with no deal', to a symmetrical question, they need a Remain/Revoke (without a further referendum) option.
    Which MPs have proposed revoke without a referendum?
    Joanna Cherry, several other SNP MPs, Paul Sweeney.

    In total 191 MPs voted to revoke A50 if an extension wasn't granted, to avoid No Deal.
    Had she/they done so in January?
    Yes.
    Why did she write this; "the idea of a temporary cross-party government formed for the purpose of extending Article 50 in order to seek a second EU Referendum, revoke Article 50 and then hold a General Election is gaining increasing currency.", on 21 Jan if she wanted to revoke without a referendum?
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/tale-of-two-unions/
    Revoke without a referendum was an option if we were faced with No Deal.

    See her comments in November/December 2018 around the time of the ECJ case she brought on unilateral revocation.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 50% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
    50% want to revoke?

    Edit: 48%+ want to revoke?

    What was the Percentage who voted to remain? Do you really expect that has dropped after the last 9 months - especially after May is forced to Accept EU elections and an October 31st departure date.

    And remember the negotiations on the final deal with the EU haven’t even begun yet.
    Some remainers actually respect democracy and accept the fact that Britain should leave the EU. The question for them is the flavour of Brexit.
    Equally some leavers know that we have handled things so badly that revoke (and possibly trying again) is the better option. And I know a lot of other leavers who have been swayed with similar arguments
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    Hard to keep No Deal on the table with this parliament opposed - witness the Cooper bill - and the EU also not up for it.

    So that new Tory leader would need to first fight and win a general election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,126
    edited April 12
    RobD said:


    On the topic of novel things that have not previously been discussed here, have you heard of this rather wondrous voting system called the Alternative Vote?

    There maybe a thread on AV this weekend.

    'Now that the inevitability of Brexit is a lot like virginity, once it is gone it is difficult to get back, so how will Brexit be deflowered? Let me introduce to you the concept of a confirmatory referendum with multiple options.'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,936
    edited April 12
    FPT
    Mango said:

    GIN1138 said:



    Whatever. They've had three years to implement the result of the referendum and get us out of the EU and whether by accident or design they've totally failed in that task

    Time to pull the plug on the Tories and move on...

    What in your opinion would have made the process easier or quicker? It's 24 June 2016. What do you do?

    As for that plug, please join the queue.
    Not sure but there are a few things off the top of my head:

    1. A Brexiteer PM and Chancellor needed to lead the government as its daft having people implementing Brexit when they are just constantly depressed and think you're making a terrible mistake.

    2. They should have disagreed with the EUs sequencing timetable at the outset.

    3. Started with "No Deal" as the default position, planned accordingly and worked in to a trade deal from there.

    4. All of the "double dealing" should have been canned. The government should have had a set position from the beginning rather than David Davis and DXEU doing one thing while May and Robbins were doing something else.

    5. There should have been attempt to go cross party. Obviously you would have never got Jezza and Vince on board but attempts should have been made to bring on board people like Farage, Hoey and Gisela in some capacity. Approaches should have been made to Labour Remainers in Leave constituency's like Flint and Nandy to join the team in some capacity as well.

    6. If your going to have a general election you'd better make sure you don't blow your majority at the end... ;)

    Just a few things off the top of my head.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Can those of you who object to putting May's deal to a referendum versus Remain explain to me what the objection is please?

    I get the 'we shouldn't have a 2nd referendum until we have implemented the 1st' line but the fact is Parliament has not, and in all probability, will never pass the Deal as it stands while the EU has been consistent in saying it will not renegotiate the Deal.

    It seems to me Leavers' best chance of achieving Brexit is now to get voters to approve the Deal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,380
    JackJack said:

    Of course my first comment gets hit by a new thread!

    I think this website has increasing gaps in its analysis since it became dominated by Remainers. Speaking to Conservative activists in the last few days, the mood is more one of rage than weariness. This delay has provoked a reaction among usually mild mannered Tories that I haven't seen since the Lisbon controversy. I don't think MPs have quite picked up on the extent of the anger yet but it will hit them shortly. Combined with a wipe out in the local elections and European elections, they will be in a state of shock and awe.

    I actually think this is existential for the Tories if they don't get Brexit over the line. The only way that will happen is with a forced Deal vs No Deal choice. I think they need a new leader for that. Probably someone with more tactical intelligence than Boris.

    A warm welcome to both yourself and your perspective. Arguing with people you agree with is never interesting.

    It doesn't surprise me that activists of the I-can't-believe-it's-not-UKIP Party are enraged rather than weary but UKIP have never been a majority in the UK. Which is maybe a different issue facing the erstwhile* Conservative and Unionist Party in getting their way in parliament and general elections.

    * The ascendency of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" is another of David Cameron's failures. The modernisation programme is a distant memory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,408
    eek said:


    Equally some leavers know that we have handled things so badly that revoke (and possibly trying again) is the better option. And I know a lot of other leavers who have been swayed with similar arguments

    Given how the topline leave/remain numbers have hardly budged, I suspect the cohort that have gone from Leave all the way to revoke to be vanishingly small.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,830
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder. New blood is always welcomed (especially near full moons).

    I'm not sure that your idea of holding a referendum but excluding what represents at least half of the population's preferred choice is going to fly, either as a matter of democracy or, more practically, by getting the numbers in Parliament.

    I didn't mean in a referendum but as a matter facing parliament. If a PM Raab or Mordaunt made clear they weren't going to agree to another extension, MPs would be deprived of can kicking and would have to vote for a deal or allow no deal by default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    Nope - revoke is 50% of the population and between 45-55% in all constituencies.

    In most constituencies the only revoke party would be chuk / lib dems while everyone else offers a variation on leave - so the revoke vote would have a simple choice while leave voters had multiple options.

    Hence I suspect all revoke MPs would have a decent chance of retaining their seat.
    50% want to revoke?

    Edit: 48%+ want to revoke?
    Given a forced choice between Revoke and No Deal it's 50/50.

    Given various options, about 35% want to Revoke.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 49
    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackJack said:

    JackJack said:

    Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, liament.

    default.
    Or revoke.
    A revoke decision without a referendum could be shortly followed by a General Election which would wipe out most of them voting for it.
    Lol. You want to try no deal and see what happens.
    1. New PM forces revoke vs no deal vs deal choice.
    2. Parliament votes for revoke on first reading.
    3. PM announces a GE and gets EU extension to do it.
    4. Wipe out of Remainers voting for revoke with no referendum.
    5. New Leave dominated parliament allows Brexit to go through, with or without a deal.
    6. Whatever the damage, next election is five years away.
    How do you think the PM gets to call a general election? She needs a two thirds vote in Parliament to be sure of it. If they've just voted to revoke, they're not going to oblige her.
    enable.
    50%+1 is not enough. It gives everyone else 14 days to try to form a government. Care to bet that no one would try, starting with Jeremy Corbyn?
    I am sure Corbyn would try. But he would not get more than 5 Tories, nor would he get CUK, nor the DUP. He doesn't have the numbers.
    Then your scenario collapses. If there are the numbers to vote for revoke, there are the numbers to see it though, prior to any election. If there arent the numbers to see it through, it won't have been agreed to in the first place.
    Not really, given the Leave PM stays until the election. I don't think the political pressures would allow whatever thin majority existed for revoke would hold together enough to force a constitutional crisis whereby parliament grabs the agenda in contravention of the PM and with an election coming. Especially as a PM could announce that even if it were revoked, they would immediately invoke it again.

    But I agree that the scenario is unlikely. The looming threat of this happening with a Revoke means MPs won't do it. The median MPs will either vote for a Deal or abstain and let No Deal happen.

    This is why the Tories should get a new leader if they want the party to survive. They havent realised this yet. But they will after the local and European elections wipeout.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 12

    Can those of you who object to putting May's deal to a referendum versus Remain explain to me what the objection is please?

    I get the 'we shouldn't have a 2nd referendum until we have implemented the 1st' line but the fact is Parliament has not, and in all probability, will never pass the Deal as it stands while the EU has been consistent in saying it will not renegotiate the Deal.

    It seems to me Leavers' best chance of achieving Brexit is now to get voters to approve the Deal.

    How about Mays deal vs Remain without FOM?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,965

    JackJack said:



    50%+1 is not enough. It gives everyone else 14 days to try to form a government. Care to bet that no one would try, starting with Jeremy Corbyn?

    I am sure Corbyn would try. But he would not get more than 5 Tories, nor would he get CUK, nor the DUP. He doesn't have the numbers.
    If Parliament has just voted to revoke, there will be a majority in Parliament for a different configuration from that currently on offer. 14 days will be ample to establish who can lead it.

    Is this true?

    If party discipline breaks down any further, as it would likely have done in such a scenario, it isn't obvious to me that a majority would exist for any particular configuration or leader - agreeing to vote to revoke does not necessarily mean agreeing on what happens next. I wouldn't completely discount the possibility of, say, Hammond or Rudd or Tom Watson for PM... but am not confident anyone could pull in enough MPs elected on opposite-coloured rosettes to make this work.
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