Remember it was all going to blow over according to some on here the other day.
I'm worried these voters will turn to Brexit Party or worse.
The geography of these contests is weighted towards Leave-voting England. Greater London, Scotland, Wales, do not have local elections, this year. Nor do Bristol and Oxford, strongly Remain-voting areas. As against that, Shropshire, Isle of Wight, Cornwall, and Northamptonshire aren't voting either, and they were strongly Leave. Birmingham and the posh parts of Buckinghamshire were 50/50 and are not voting.
By my calculation, the parts of England that are voting this year backed Leave by 55.6% to 44.4%. About 6,800 of the 8,374 seats being contested are in Leave-voting authorities.
Potentially, that leaves the Conservatives vulnerable to angry Leave voters, but also makes it unlikely that Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens will pick up many switchers. UKIP and Independents may pick up more switchers, but they're only standing in a minority of seats.
The difficulty with the locals will be getting Tory campaigners out to knock on doors - local elections are however local and many people will be voting for local issues (for instance my vote will be anti the current party in power) as we do need a change and that will mean voting Tory.
The difficulty for the Euros is that as well as Tory campaigners not going out and knocking on doors there is little likelihood in Tory voters going out and voting. I suspect those who will vote will tend towards the extremes and that may favour Chuk as that vote is far likely to be split in the way Brexit / UKIP vote will be split.
I expect that a lot of Tory voters will vote in the Euros, but they'll vote Brexit or UKIP.
Those most angry support the MPs who betrayed Brexit by refusing to vote for it when they could, so I'm not clear if they will forgive or not, since their anger is not rationally directed.
Remember it was all going to blow over according to some on here the other day.
I'm worried these voters will turn to Brexit Party or worse.
The geography of these contests is weighted towards Leave-voting England. Greater London, Scotland, Wales, do not have local elections, this year. Nor do Bristol and Oxford, strongly Remain-voting areas. As against that, Shropshire, Isle of Wight, Cornwall, and Northamptonshire aren't voting either, and they were strongly Leave. Birmingham and the posh parts of Buckinghamshire were 50/50 and are not voting.
By my calculation, the parts of England that are voting this year backed Leave by 55.6% to 44.4%. About 6,800 of the 8,374 seats being contested are in Leave-voting authorities.
Potentially, that leaves the Conservatives vulnerable to angry Leave voters, but also makes it unlikely that Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens will pick up many switchers. UKIP and Independents may pick up more switchers, but they're only standing in a minority of seats.
The difficulty with the locals will be getting Tory campaigners out to knock on doors - local elections are however local and many people will be voting for local issues (for instance my vote will be anti the current party in power) as we do need a change and that will mean voting Tory.
The difficulty for the Euros is that as well as Tory campaigners not going out and knocking on doors there is little likelihood in Tory voters going out and voting. I suspect those who will vote will tend towards the extremes and that may favour Chuk as that vote is far likely to be split in the way Brexit / UKIP vote will be split.
I expect that a lot of Tory voters will vote in the Euros, but they'll vote Brexit or UKIP.
I agree, especially if Farage can frame the argument as "Tell them again."
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
I think that the publicity for Farage will outweigh the UKIP name recognition.
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
I think that the publicity for Farage will outweigh the UKIP name recognition.
That's probably true but I'm not totally convinced yet. If the polls show the Brexit Party miles ahead of UKIP there won't be any doubt about the outcome but it may be closer.
Tory activists gearing up for the Euro elections won't exactly be delighted to hear Philip Hammond say: "the Euro elections feel like a pointless exercise".
Tory activists gearing up for the Euro elections won't exactly be delighted to hear Philip Hammond say: "the Euro elections feel like a pointless exercise".
Wait till he says "I wish we'd just cancel Brexit."
Tory activists gearing up for the Euro elections won't exactly be delighted to hear Philip Hammond say: "the Euro elections feel like a pointless exercise".
Wait till he says "I wish we'd just cancel Brexit."
But then they wouldn't be a pointless exercise. What Hammond is saying is we will deffo Leave.....
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
I think that the publicity for Farage will outweigh the UKIP name recognition.
Scope for plenty of Purple on Purple infighting though....
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
I think that the publicity for Farage will outweigh the UKIP name recognition.
I think there's a chance that many voters will hear "Farage" and think "UKIP" and publicity for Farage could increase votes for UKIP.
One problem with the name Brexit for the new party is that it's a thing in itself, so people might not immediately recognise it as the name of Nigel's new party. I'd hope that UKIP in its current guise wouldn't be worth more than 2% in the EU elections on its own, and any more that it receives are solely due to the brand recognition and association with Farage.
The ratio of Brexit : UKIP votes will be one of the fascinating parts of the results.
I would not expect that either the Brexit Party or TIG will be granted Major Party status for the EU elections. Neither party has received a single vote.
Those most angry support the MPs who betrayed Brexit by refusing to vote for it when they could, so I'm not clear if they will forgive or not, since their anger is not rationally directed.
And when the penny has dropped with everyone else that their best (probably only) chance of leaving now is by winning a second referendum (WA vs Remain), they will redirect their anger towards those proposing a second referendum.
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
I think that the publicity for Farage will outweigh the UKIP name recognition.
That's probably true but I'm not totally convinced yet. If the polls show the Brexit Party miles ahead of UKIP there won't be any doubt about the outcome but it may be closer.
I wonder if CHUK / LD voters will justify their billing as higher information participants by splitting (or, rather, not) any more efficiently than UKIP / Brexit voters?
Tory activists gearing up for the Euro elections won't exactly be delighted to hear Philip Hammond say: "the Euro elections feel like a pointless exercise".
Wait till he says "I wish we'd just cancel Brexit."
But then they wouldn't be a pointless exercise. What Hammond is saying is we will deffo Leave.....
Mr. 124, the Tiggers are no more. They unwisely chose to become CUKs.
Better chance of CUK getting more coverage as they have incumbent MPs, at least.
I am not aware that CUK have yet been registered as a political party. Their current status as MPs would be irrelevant as they were elected under the Tory and Labour labels. It would be a different matter had they successfully fought confirmatory by elections.
Mr. F, we have locals in Leeds. The referendum region was one of the biggest, and split almost equally, 50.2% supporting Remain.
Last year was all-out elections in Leeds, due to boundary changes. 3 member wards. The third-placed elected candidates are having to stand to retain their seats after only 1 year, poor buggers.
Tory activists gearing up for the Euro elections won't exactly be delighted to hear Philip Hammond say: "the Euro elections feel like a pointless exercise".
They are certainly pointless if you are a Conservative candidate.
Those most angry support the MPs who betrayed Brexit by refusing to vote for it when they could, so I'm not clear if they will forgive or not, since their anger is not rationally directed.
There is a rational case to it. Tory activists can understand those who vote for No Deal and understand those who voted for May's Deal. Their anger is at those who vote for neither, and those enabling them by extending.
The only way the Tories can bring this back is by removing May and putting a Leaver in charge.
Those most angry support the MPs who betrayed Brexit by refusing to vote for it when they could, so I'm not clear if they will forgive or not, since their anger is not rationally directed.
There is a rational case to it. Tory activists can understand those who vote for No Deal and understand those who voted for May's Deal. Their anger is at those who vote for neither, and those enabling them by extending.
The only way the Tories can bring this back is by removing May and putting a Leaver in charge.
May needs to go but I really do not see how putting a 'leaver' in charge changes anything, since most of the Tory leavers already backed the deal at least once. A leaver in charge doesn't change the facts.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Those most angry support the MPs who betrayed Brexit by refusing to vote for it when they could, so I'm not clear if they will forgive or not, since their anger is not rationally directed.
There is a rational case to it. Tory activists can understand those who vote for No Deal and understand those who voted for May's Deal. Their anger is at those who vote for neither, and those enabling them by extending.
The only way the Tories can bring this back is by removing May and putting a Leaver in charge.
As May has found it, being in charge of the Tory party is not the same as being in charge of parliament. Boris or whoever will not succeed in getting no-deal or similar through this parliament. Could they win a general election outright? Possibly, but that would come at the risk of no Brexit and/or a Corbyn government. More likely it would be another hung parliament where eventually people will have to compromise (or delay....) and the purists on either side will get angrier still.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Oh dear. With this statement we must assign your future views the weight of an electron.
People should have been paid to watch the Last Jedi.
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Oh dear. With this statement we must assign your future views the weight of an electron.
People should have been paid to watch the Last Jedi.
It was great. Not to provoke a lengthy debate on the subject, but while I totally get how people would not like it, I really do not get why some people seem to despise it. Particularly among Star Wars geeks who liked things in Force Awakens which they seemed to despise in Last Jedi. It's probably my second favourite Star Wars movie after Return of the Jedi.
I think the Last Jedi good/bad split on PB is more bitter than on Brexit. Pity those who don't care about it.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
That was when the EEC did not have political union, legal supremacy or entail mass migration. Those three additional elements have meant pro-Europeanism will never be supported by people of a conservative tendency. The Euro makes it worse. The UK either need to give up control of monetary policy to a system with a terrible track record, or forever be marginalized in control of it's own law by the Eurozone powers.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
Thatcher won despite her pro-European stance, not because of it. She was more in tune with her MPs perhaps - but her voters have been and continue to be very, very wary of the EU.
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Oh dear. With this statement we must assign your future views the weight of an electron.
People should have been paid to watch the Last Jedi.
Anyone using the term "butthurt" automatically loses the argument.
Welcome @JackJack. The site has its fair number of Leave representatives, though they have recently got by turns angrier, quieter, more deranged and weirder.
Having seen you exhibiting 3 of the 4, dare we hope that quieter is around the corner?
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
That was when the EEC did not have political union, legal supremacy or entail mass migration. Those three additional elements have meant pro-Europeanism will never be supported by people of a conservative tendency. The Euro makes it worse. The UK either need to give up control of monetary policy to a system with a terrible track record, or forever be marginalized in control of it's own law by the Eurozone powers.
It's always been a political union with law that has direct effect. Free movement does not equal mass migration, and to the extent that there might be temporary phenomena as the new members catch up economically, we just need to look at the bigger picture.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
I would not expect that either the Brexit Party or TIG will be granted Major Party status for the EU elections. Neither party has received a single vote.
UKIP, Labour, Conservative should be the "major" parties I think for the euros.
Tory activists gearing up for the Euro elections won't exactly be delighted to hear Philip Hammond say: "the Euro elections feel like a pointless exercise".
Wait till he says "I wish we'd just cancel Brexit."
But then they wouldn't be a pointless exercise. What Hammond is saying is we will deffo Leave.....
This is why the Tories should sit them out.
That's actually not a bad idea.
However, it does carry with it the risk that a LD/ChUK/RemainCoalition ends up topping the poll. (I'm going on the assumption that 50% of Tory voters sit out the elections in that situation, while 25% vote Remain and 25% UKIP/Brexit.
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Oh dear. With this statement we must assign your future views the weight of an electron.
People should have been paid to watch the Last Jedi.
It was great. Not to provoke a lengthy debate on the subject, but while I totally get how people would not like it, I really do not get why some people seem to despise it. Particularly among Star Wars geeks who liked things in Force Awakens which they seemed to despise in Last Jedi. It's probably my second favourite Star Wars movie after Return of the Jedi.
I think the Last Jedi good/bad split on PB is more bitter than on Brexit. Pity those who don't care about it.
I didn't like the Force Awakens either.
They were both unimaginative, derivative and badly written. With rare exceptions they were also quite badly acted.
But to be truthful, that's a feature of most of the saga except Episode V. So what did annoy me? I've got to be honest and say I think the worst thing was it was so bloody long for no discernible reason.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
Thatcher won despite her pro-European stance, not because of it. She was more in tune with her MPs perhaps - but her voters have been and continue to be very, very wary of the EU.
Her pro-European stance enabled her to look like a serious leader on the world stage, as opposed to a laughing stock. It also helped her to portray the opposition as economically dangerous.
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Agreed, as long as it is more like the excellent Last Jedi than the dire Rogue One it will be worth watching
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
I hope it is as good as the Last Jedi, I loved that movie. I hope they haven't gone overboard on retroactive continuity because of butthurt fanboys about the last movie with some of their silliness(this is in no way a criticism for anyone who has issues with writing or plot, each to their own on that score).
Oh dear. With this statement we must assign your future views the weight of an electron.
People should have been paid to watch the Last Jedi.
It was great. Not to provoke a lengthy debate on the subject, but while I totally get how people would not like it, I really do not get why some people seem to despise it. Particularly among Star Wars geeks who liked things in Force Awakens which they seemed to despise in Last Jedi. It's probably my second favourite Star Wars movie after Return of the Jedi.
I think the Last Jedi good/bad split on PB is more bitter than on Brexit. Pity those who don't care about it.
But to be truthful, that's a feature of most of the saga except Episode V. So what did annoy me? I've got to be honest and say I think the worst thing was it was so bloody long for no discernible reason.
Actually I think there was a reason (minus the Finn stuff which was filler) not that it would be one someone would like if they did not like the movie- because it was aping the original trilogy the seeming endpoint came, was subverted, then the last bit was set up things moving forward, and the length played into it by getting to the usual 2 hours, then adding stuff setting up the next movie. I think that was one reason I really liked it so much, because while I enjoyed Force Awakens it was so obviously redoing New Hope, and the Last Jedi end point seemed to be taking things in a new direction as a result of what happened in it.
Although with the name and details of that new trailer, that might have been a false dawn - most Star Wars fans just want what they've seen before. But I'm always hopeful.
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
The issue is that the remain/payroll wing of the party is content to let her stay in place because the leave wing has been constantly trying to remove her for the last year or so. That isn't in itself a good reason for her to stay in place though.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
Thatcher won despite her pro-European stance, not because of it. She was more in tune with her MPs perhaps - but her voters have been and continue to be very, very wary of the EU.
Her pro-European stance enabled her to look like a serious leader on the world stage, as opposed to a laughing stock. It also helped her to portray the opposition as economically dangerous.
Why does 'looking like a serious leader on the world stage' have this intrinsic merit for you? Don't you realise what a genuinely silly and ephemeral 'ambition' that is? What price 'looking serious'. Utterly nuts.
Another new bird species in our garden this morning: Mallard.
Not just any old mallard, but mummy duck and her nine duckings heading from their nest site in a neighbour's garden trying to reach some water. Our garden wall presented a 'hard border', so me and wor lass had to catch the ducklings and deposit them on the other side of the wall. All was well, and off they all marched through the field...
I would not expect that either the Brexit Party or TIG will be granted Major Party status for the EU elections. Neither party has received a single vote.
UKIP, Labour, Conservative should be the "major" parties I think for the euros.
I don't disagree on the basis of past recent performance - plus SNP in Scotland.Such decisions will have to be made soon in advance of the campaign.
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
The issue is that the remain/payroll wing of the party is content to let her stay in place because the leave wing has been constantly trying to remove her for the last year or so. That isn't in itself a good reason for her to stay in place though.
TM has done her best and has achieved a brexit treaty with the EU. The factions from all sides have created the deadlock. TM staying is most likely to continue the situation and it is a fact the party needs a new leader before the next election. The best time for that is now
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
Thatcher won despite her pro-European stance, not because of it. She was more in tune with her MPs perhaps - but her voters have been and continue to be very, very wary of the EU.
Her pro-European stance enabled her to look like a serious leader on the world stage, as opposed to a laughing stock. It also helped her to portray the opposition as economically dangerous.
Why does 'looking like a serious leader on the world stage' have this intrinsic merit for you? Don't you realise what a genuinely silly and ephemeral 'ambition' that is? What price 'looking serious'. Utterly nuts.
I'm explaining why Thatcher appealed to voters, not expressing my own 'ambitions'.
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
I broadly agree, but the 'how' of it escapes me.
The 'who' is quite bad too.
I agree on both counts but staying the same is not an option now
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
Doubt it. Farage+Brexit name will trump (sic) the lingering UKIP appeal.
Another new bird species in our garden this morning: Mallard.
Not just any old mallard, but mummy duck and her nine duckings heading from their nest site in a neighbour's garden trying to reach some water. Our garden wall presented a 'hard border', so me and wor lass had to catch the ducklings and deposit them on the other side of the wall. All was well, and off they all marched through the field...
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
I broadly agree, but the 'how' of it escapes me.
The 'who' is quite bad too.
I agree on both counts but staying the same is not an option now
Obviously we'll need more polls, but a value bet may be UKIP getting more votes than the Brexit Party at the Euro elections, simply because of the name recognition of the former over the latter.
Doubt it. Farage+Brexit name will trump (sic) the lingering UKIP appeal.
The risk is that people think UKIP = The Brexit Party = Farage.
Another new bird species in our garden this morning: Mallard.
Not just any old mallard, but mummy duck and her nine duckings heading from their nest site in a neighbour's garden trying to reach some water. Our garden wall presented a 'hard border', so me and wor lass had to catch the ducklings and deposit them on the other side of the wall. All was well, and off they all marched through the field...
I have refrained from posting over the last day or two mainly due to brexit boredom
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
I broadly agree, but the 'how' of it escapes me.
The 'who' is quite bad too.
I agree on both counts but staying the same is not an option now
I'm fresh out of clues. You?
And me - If I knew that I would make a fortune but alas I do not bet anyway
Another new bird species in our garden this morning: Mallard.
Not just any old mallard, but mummy duck and her nine duckings heading from their nest site in a neighbour's garden trying to reach some water. Our garden wall presented a 'hard border', so me and wor lass had to catch the ducklings and deposit them on the other side of the wall. All was well, and off they all marched through the field...
Lovely story and well done
Thank you G. Some years back when I worked in London a mallard nested on the flat roof of the office. We had to call the RSPCA to catch the ducklings and take them down to Hyde Park.
Sigh. Do we really need to import America’s neuroses into our politics?
He really is a baiter. Didn’t someone say that prebrexit he was quite a reasonable person. He knowingly and repeatedly puts thing on Twitter that are just untrue.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
That was when the EEC did not have political union, legal supremacy or entail mass migration. Those three additional elements have meant pro-Europeanism will never be supported by people of a conservative tendency. The Euro makes it worse. The UK either need to give up control of monetary policy to a system with a terrible track record, or forever be marginalized in control of it's own law by the Eurozone powers.
It's always been a political union with law that has direct effect. Free movement does not equal mass migration, and to the extent that there might be temporary phenomena as the new members catch up economically, we just need to look at the bigger picture.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
The only political union in 1975 was vague ambition. The extensive veto powers still meant it was an international agreement. Freedom of movement does mean mass migration through expansion and Eurozone problems. Places like Romania will take decades to catch-up. "Othering" is not a verb, outside of identity politics ideology.
Another new bird species in our garden this morning: Mallard.
Not just any old mallard, but mummy duck and her nine duckings heading from their nest site in a neighbour's garden trying to reach some water. Our garden wall presented a 'hard border', so me and wor lass had to catch the ducklings and deposit them on the other side of the wall. All was well, and off they all marched through the field...
Lovely story and well done
Thank you G. Some years back when I worked in London a mallard nested on the flat roof of the office. We had to call the RSPCA to catch the ducklings and take them down to Hyde Park.
You would be the toast of my family and expecially my grand children
This idea that vast swathes of the country are now consumed by an burning sense of betrayal is starting to sound overdone. I can't believe that Theresa's honeymoon poll surge was driven by the belief that she was a wonky-eyed Hard Brexit absolutist. Anyway, the British tendency to delay things while we fumble around for a fix is one of our most endearing traits surely? Who wouldn't allow for a bit of typical British faffing?
FWIW I doubt the country is buring with a sense of Brexit betrayal,
I doubt the Con share being down 10% is due anything else.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the main left-wing opposition, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
That was when the EEC did not have political union, legal supremacy or entail mass migration. Those three additional elements have meant pro-Europeanism will never be supported by people of a conservative tendency. The Euro makes it worse. The UK either need to give up control of monetary policy to a system with a terrible track record, or forever be marginalized in control of it's own law by the Eurozone powers.
It's always been a political union with law that has direct effect. Free movement does not equal mass migration, and to the extent that there might be temporary phenomena as the new members catch up economically, we just need to look at the bigger picture.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
The only political union in 1975 was vague ambition. The extensive veto powers still meant it was an international agreement. Freedom of movement does mean mass migration through expansion and Eurozone problems. Places like Romania will take decades to catch-up. "Othering" is not a verb, outside of identity politics ideology.
It was a lot more than vague ambition, which was why the debates about it were so intense in the 60s and early 70s.
The majority of migration into the UK has always been from outside the EU, and this is even more the case at present. It's not a valid argument for Brexit, especially as we haven't even started negotiating the future relationship, and it's quite likely we will have to capitulate on free movement once the real economic trade-offs become apparent.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the maintion, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
It's always been a political union with law that has direct effect. Free movement does not equal mass migration, and to the extent that there might be temporary phenomena as the new members catch up economically, we just need to look at the bigger picture.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
The only political union in 1975 was vague ambition. The extensive veto powers still meant it was an international agreement. Freedom of movement does mean mass migration through expansion and Eurozone problems. Places like Romania will take decades to catch-up. "Othering" is not a verb, outside of identity politics ideology.
The majority of migration into the UK has always been from outside the EU, and this is even more the case at present. It's not a valid argument for Brexit, especially as we haven't even started negotiating the future relationship, and it's quite likely we will have to capitulate on free movement once the real economic trade offs become apparent.
The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
I've voted Conservative in all but two elections.
2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.
Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the maintion, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
It's always been a political union with law that has direct effect. Free movement does not equal mass migration, and to the extent that there might be temporary phenomena as the new members catch up economically, we just need to look at the bigger picture.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
The only political union in 1975
Tht.
The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
Canada and Australia have a per capita immigration rate about three times our own.
It is fairly easy to operate a points system when the numbers are so huge.
Worth noting that many Leave voting areas have negligible or negative population growth. Migrants go to economically active areas.
Sigh. According to that left leaning Europhile rag the Telegraph, the Uk has better educated immigrants than natives, over half of them with degrees, compared to one in three for natives.
May has made a lot of mistakes but no one could have done much better .
I’ve come to the realization that there’s no middle way possible , a softer Brexit will just keep the Eurosceptics moaning about the EU . The Remainers wondering why bother when being in the EU gives you a say and seat at the table .
Mays deal in terms of an orderly exit is the best on offer .The thing I cherish the most about being in the EU is freedom of movement and as that’s now impossible because of both main parties stance then there’s no soft enough Brexit possible with those constraints .
Freedom of movement has become such a defining issue that it seems impossible for the public to accept that even when the facts suggest EU migration is falling rapidly .
It’s not just because of the vote , that was always likely to fall as the EU economy improved especially in those eastern parts .
So where I’m at now is either we Remain as a full member or Leave and just have a trade deal with as close as relationship possible given certain constraints . But NI will have to be treated differently . The backstop is needed and if alternative measures can’t overcome that then NI needs to stay closer to the EU .
A large majority in NI don’t have a problem with that . The DUP deservedly need to get their just desserts for disgracefully backing Leave when they knew the issues it would cause . Most people in the UK don’t really care if NI has a different relationship .
I think an honest conversation is needed with the public about the trade offs , something that needed to occur during the EU ref campaign.
There is no free lunch , there are costs to leaving and you either accept those or continue to live in a fantasy where everything changes but somehow trade etc remains the same .
"Labour is considering automatic voter registration to add millions to electoral roll All British adults could be automatically registered to vote under radical plans being considered by Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party.
The move could see around seven million voters being added to the electoral register, with huge numbers of young and low income individuals automatically enrolled for the first time.
Mr Corbyn's party believes the current system of individual registration has so far failed to give a voice to huge swathes of the UK public, and Labour will now examine various models around the world."
It may well suit both major parties to play the EU elections very low key and to treat them as non-events. They have been largely ignored in the past anyway.
This comment is an example of why May is wrong to try to court Remainers. Even were she to fully revoke, Remainers would not start voting Tory in significant numbers. But by pushing Leavers out of the party she is abandoning her core vote.
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
The best chance for the Conservative Party to have a long term future is by being more pro-European than the maintion, as they were when Thatcher won her landslide victories.
It's always been a political union with law that has direct effect. Free movement does not equal mass migration, and to the extent that there might be temporary phenomena as the new members catch up economically, we just need to look at the bigger picture.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
The only political union in 1975
Tht.
The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
Canada and Australia have a per capita immigration rate about three times our own.
It is fairly easy to operate a points system when the numbers are so huge.
Worth noting that many Leave voting areas have negligible or negative population growth. Migrants go to economically active areas.
Australia and Canada (Even allowing for their desert interiors and frozen north respectively) have way more room than the UK !
The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
I've voted Conservative in all but two elections.
2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.
Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.
So you think the Conservatives deserve 42% of the vote.
May has made a lot of mistakes but no one could have done much better .
I’ve come to the realization that there’s no middle way possible , a softer Brexit will just keep the Eurosceptics moaning about the EU . The Remainers wondering why bother when being in the EU gives you a say and seat at the table .
Mays deal in terms of an orderly exit is the best on offer .The thing I cherish the most about being in the EU is freedom of movement and as that’s now impossible because of both main parties stance then there’s no soft enough Brexit possible with those constraints .
Freedom of movement has become such a defining issue that it seems impossible for the public to accept that even when the facts suggest EU migration is falling rapidly .
It’s not just because of the vote , that was always likely to fall as the EU economy improved especially in those eastern parts .
So where I’m at now is either we Remain as a full member or Leave and just have a trade deal with as close as relationship possible given certain constraints . But NI will have to be treated differently . The backstop is needed and if alternative measures can’t overcome that then NI needs to stay closer to the EU .
A large majority in NI don’t have a problem with that . The DUP deservedly need to get their just desserts for disgracefully backing Leave when they knew the issues it would cause . Most people in the UK don’t really care if NI has a different relationship .
I think an honest conversation is needed with the public about the trade offs , something that needed to occur during the EU ref campaign.
There is no free lunch , there are costs to leaving and you either accept those or continue to live in a fantasy where everything changes but somehow trade etc remains the same .
The fact a challenge comes from two places is not a good reason to only deal with it from one place. Both EU and non-EU migration need to be reduced and this is a sentiment felt overwhelmingly by conservative minded voters. It does not make sense for a conservative party to support a policy of rapid demographic and cultural change. Incidentally, have you ever voted Conservative in a General Election?
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
I've voted Conservative in all but two elections.
2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.
Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.
So you think the Conservatives deserve 42% of the vote.
"Labour is considering automatic voter registration to add millions to electoral roll All British adults could be automatically registered to vote under radical plans being considered by Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party.
The move could see around seven million voters being added to the electoral register, with huge numbers of young and low income individuals automatically enrolled for the first time.
Mr Corbyn's party believes the current system of individual registration has so far failed to give a voice to huge swathes of the UK public, and Labour will now examine various models around the world."
Comments
Wake
From your sleep
The drying of
Your tears
Today
We escape
We escape
That's why I like the BBC. They can see the significance of those little details
One problem with the name Brexit for the new party is that it's a thing in itself, so people might not immediately recognise it as the name of Nigel's new party. I'd hope that UKIP in its current guise wouldn't be worth more than 2% in the EU elections on its own, and any more that it receives are solely due to the brand recognition and association with Farage.
The ratio of Brexit : UKIP votes will be one of the fascinating parts of the results.
The Leader
I wanna be the leader
I wanna be the leader
Can I be the leader?
Can I? I can?
Promise? Promise?
Yippee I'm the leader
I'm the leader
OK what shall we do?
Better chance of CUK getting more coverage as they have incumbent MPs, at least.
The only way the Tories can bring this back is by removing May and putting a Leaver in charge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adzYW5DZoWs&t=11s
Guess who is back?
It is very clear that if the Conservative Party wishes to survive, it can not extend again past October.
People should have been paid to watch the Last Jedi.
I think the Last Jedi good/bad split on PB is more bitter than on Brexit. Pity those who don't care about it.
Might ask Shadsy to price that up.
Trying to 'other' people who are pro-European as 'not conservative' will just turn your party into a small sect.
However, it does carry with it the risk that a LD/ChUK/RemainCoalition ends up topping the poll. (I'm going on the assumption that 50% of Tory voters sit out the elections in that situation, while 25% vote Remain and 25% UKIP/Brexit.
They were both unimaginative, derivative and badly written. With rare exceptions they were also quite badly acted.
But to be truthful, that's a feature of most of the saga except Episode V. So what did annoy me? I've got to be honest and say I think the worst thing was it was so bloody long for no discernible reason.
However, I have come to the conclusion TM needs to open the leadership race as soon as Easter is over. There is no point in her continuing in the deadlock and new ideas are needed
It does not matter who succeeds her as long as the numbers remain the same but it is now time for change. I hope TM in her walks this next week here in beautiful North Wales realises she has done her best to square the circle but needs to pass on the responsibilty before she is forced out
I want to leave on her deal, and if a new leader can achieve brexit with fine tuning her deal that would be a good outcome for both her amd the country
https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/film/hellboy-review-reboot-david-harbour-a4116176.html
Although with the name and details of that new trailer, that might have been a false dawn - most Star Wars fans just want what they've seen before. But I'm always hopeful.
Pleasant evening all.
Makes car racing look interesting.
Not just any old mallard, but mummy duck and her nine duckings heading from their nest site in a neighbour's garden trying to reach some water. Our garden wall presented a 'hard border', so me and wor lass had to catch the ducklings and deposit them on the other side of the wall. All was well, and off they all marched through the field...
The 'who' is quite bad too.
https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/1115945570865242112?s=21
The Labour party: Hold my beer...
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1116734834683076608
The majority of migration into the UK has always been from outside the EU, and this is even more the case at present. It's not a valid argument for Brexit, especially as we haven't even started negotiating the future relationship, and it's quite likely we will have to capitulate on free movement once the real economic trade-offs become apparent.
Any deal should be similar to the Canada-EU deal. Canada has, except for a few small cases, an immigration system focused overwhelmingly on high skilled people. This is why it is the only country in the world where immigrant kids do as well as native kids in the education system. They come from high skilled parents that encourage similar values in their children.
2001 for the Lib Dems in protest against Hague's Eurosceptic campaign, and 2017 for Labour in protest against Brexit.
Alienate people like me and your party deserves all it gets.
It is fairly easy to operate a points system when the numbers are so huge.
Worth noting that many Leave voting areas have negligible or negative population growth. Migrants go to economically active areas.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/mapped-how-britain-has-the-highest-level-of-skilled-migration-in/
Of their children, OECD say 58% go to higher education compared to 46% for British born.
If people were interested in reality rather than soundbites things might be a bit easier.
I’ve come to the realization that there’s no middle way possible , a softer Brexit will just keep the Eurosceptics moaning about the EU . The Remainers wondering why bother when being in the EU gives you a say and seat at the table .
Mays deal in terms of an orderly exit is the best on offer .The thing I cherish the most about being in the EU is freedom of movement and as that’s now impossible because of both main parties stance then there’s no soft enough Brexit possible with those constraints .
Freedom of movement has become such a defining issue that it seems impossible for the public to accept that even when the facts suggest EU migration is falling rapidly .
It’s not just because of the vote , that was always likely to fall as the EU economy improved especially in those eastern parts .
So where I’m at now is either we Remain as a full member or Leave and just have a trade deal with as close as relationship possible given certain constraints . But NI will have to be treated differently . The backstop is needed and if alternative measures can’t overcome that then NI needs to stay closer to the EU .
A large majority in NI don’t have a problem with that . The DUP deservedly need to get their just desserts for disgracefully backing Leave when they knew the issues it would cause . Most people in the UK don’t really care if NI has a different relationship .
I think an honest conversation is needed with the public about the trade offs , something that needed to occur during the EU ref campaign.
There is no free lunch , there are costs to leaving and you either accept those or continue to live in a fantasy where everything changes but somehow trade etc remains the same .
All British adults could be automatically registered to vote under radical plans being considered by Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party.
The move could see around seven million voters being added to the electoral register, with huge numbers of young and low income individuals automatically enrolled for the first time.
Mr Corbyn's party believes the current system of individual registration has so far failed to give a voice to huge swathes of the UK public, and Labour will now examine various models around the world."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-live-julian-assange-theresa-may-deal-party-farage-latest-a8866371.html
I think they'll accept that.