Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 765
    First!
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,100
    Seems a good shout.

    Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.

    What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Third, like the Tories in the EU elections (if they're lucky).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,440
    4th meaningful post
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    edited April 14

    Seems a good shout.

    Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.

    What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?

    No number is fatal..her premiership is already terminal. Is it terminal.for the Tories is the real question
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,485
    Good morning ladies and gentlemen. A fine, but chilly, April morning here in Essex, and I'm not as optimistic about the Tories. (Optimistic because a real shake up of politics would be a good thing for the UK). I suspect that (a) for many people old habits die hard and it'll be a long time for that of voting Conservative to be broken and (b) the Conservative Party exists primarily as a vehicle for 'our friends' to get into power and it will, after an internal storm, get itself together again.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,180

    Seems a good shout.

    Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.

    What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?

    No number is fatal..her premiership is already terminal. Is it terminal.for the Tories is the real question
    If it doesn't, then it deserves to be. It is proving to be thoroughly unfit for purpose when it comes to the greatest political crisis facing the country for decades (and a thoroughly self-inflicted one).

    Labour isn't much better wrt that crisis (and is hideous in other ways), but they somewhat get a pass as they're not the government.

    We are being overtaken by hatred on all sides, and people who pretend to be reasonable excusing and defending hatred - both Labour with anti-Semitism and the Brexiteers defending general anti-foreigner sentiments.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    edited April 14
    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    The lead sets out the reasons why the Tories will do badly. But below 10%?

    The one flaw in the polls is that they are asking everyone, at a time when many people have been following the news. Yet we know the Euros is a low turnout election - and although I think turnout may rise this time, it's still an election where the majority won't bother.

    So turnout will be skewed, and skewed towards the type of people who always vote: i.e. older people, and people with standing Postal Votes. Surely there will be at least 10% of these who will vote Tory our of habit; strange as it may seem, not everyone will have been following the news, and there are a lot of people who don't care that much about Brexit and a lot of people who feel sorry for the PM. I would be amazed if my mother doesn't vote Tory, as she always does.

    So I would go for 10-20%, which still looks attractive even at Evens.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802
    10-20% moved to 10/11
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,965
    And in these extraordinary times, any thoughts of a prominent labour party member secretly taping a meeting with the leader and then leaking it to the Times?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,802

    Seems a good shout.

    Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.

    What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?

    No number is fatal..her premiership is already terminal. Is it terminal.for the Tories is the real question
    For that, I think the locals matter more. Locals is thousands of Tory activists' seats at stake. Whereas no-one is taking the Euro elections in current circumstances as anything other than an opinion poll.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    IanB2 said:

    Seems a good shout.

    Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.

    What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?

    No number is fatal..her premiership is already terminal. Is it terminal.for the Tories is the real question
    For that, I think the locals matter more. Locals is thousands of Tory activists' seats at stake. Whereas no-one is taking the Euro elections in current circumstances as anything other than an opinion poll.
    Yes, the locals are very important for the members and activists. This year’s locals were last contested on the same day as GE2015, when the Tories surprised on the upside, so there’s a lot of potential for a nightmare evening. Against that, Farage’s Brexit Party and UKIP aren’t standing many candidates, and the latter won a lot of seats four years ago.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,631
    Tories under 10% in the Euro Elections !!!!!!!!!!!!

    Me thinks young TSE has overindulged on the elderflower wine after being released from an overnight stay in the PB padded cell. The poor fellow intoned yesterday evening that there was some merit to the political existence of Boris Johnston !! .... fortunately the men in white coats were on scene with alacrity

    Rumour also has it that TSE has traded in his beloved red shoes for a pair of vegan sandals from a secret source in Bedford. Likely a load of cobblers ....

    Developing story ....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749
    edited April 14
    I think the gender split is relevant here, which was male : female 12 : 22 in the latest YouGov. If support for May, and her approach to Brexit holds up with women it's hard to see how it will drop below 10% overall.

    I think TSE would be right on male votes, but his understanding of [some] female voters is lacking. They may still back May as relatively the most adult politician available (in their view, if not mine).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228
    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749

    Seems a good shout.

    Essentially no one has a reason to vote for Tories at this point.

    What number is fatal for Mrs May ? Sub 15% ?

    Your third line provides a reason for the second. There will be people who think May has been the reasonable one and everyone else was unfair not to vote with her. They will have a reason to vote Tory to express that support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    Although TSE's general points are valid, it is worth remembering:

    1. 10% is a hellalow figure. Even the LibDems usually get there. So, things would have to get real bad for the Conservative Party to get there.

    2. There's not really that much enthusiasm for the alternatives. UKIP? Bunch of nutters. Brexit Party? Bunch of drunk nutters. Labour Party? Bunch of antisemitic nutters. Etc.

    3. There's rather more sympathy for Mrs May out there than people realise.

    4. It is possible - but by no means certain - that those who wish us to Leave the EU will choose to boycott these elections.

    So, 12-1? No, I'd need 30-1.

    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    Well done TSE. Interesting and comprehensive.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,976
    rcs1000 said:

    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.

    I don't think a joint list is permissible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    rcs1000 said:

    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.

    I don't think a joint list is permissible.
    The Remain List (LD/CUK/PC/SNP) or somesuch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,037
    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    Blue_rog said:

    And in these extraordinary times, any thoughts of a prominent labour party member secretly taping a meeting with the leader and then leaking it to the Times?

    Politicians aren't very nice these days. I wonder whether Trump has moved the goalposts on acceptable behaviour?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,243
    edited April 14
    I have no doubt the ERG turning Japanese is the reason why we are where we are now and however this pans out history will not be kind to them

    However time for a lovely story in these times:


    My grandson (10) was asked to bring a £1 into school last week for an Easter egg competition.

    When he arrived at school one of his friends tearfully commented he had not got a £1. Unhesitatingly my grandson gave him his £1 and said he did not mind if he did not win an Easter egg.

    His teacher on hearing the story told him and his class he would be given a free entry for his kindness

    As it so happens his friend actually won the two Easter eggs and on winning turned to my grandson and said "lets have one each'

    What an example to all of us, and especially the politicians who are supposed to serve us
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,283
    Blue_rog said:

    And in these extraordinary times, any thoughts of a prominent labour party member secretly taping a meeting with the leader and then leaking it to the Times?

    Isn’t Labour in favour of Whistleblowers? Or is that only if they embarrass the USA and not Labour?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

    Again.
  • IanB2 said:

    10-20% moved to 10/11

    Over 20% seems very unlikely, possible if they somehow make progress with Labour on the Brexit withdrawal, but otherwise out of line with the polling and momentum. So dutching 10/11 and 12/1 is value, probably the 10/11 middle is better value than the 12/1.

    Hopefully betfair put up some markets soon, would love to be able to lay 20-30% close to evens.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228

    I have no doubt the ERG turning Japanese is the reason why we are where we are now and however this pans out history will not be kind to them

    However time for a lovely story in these times:


    My grandson (10) was asked to bring a £1 into school last week for an Easter egg competition.

    When he arrived at school one of his friends tearfully commented he had not got a £1. Unhesitatingly my grandson gave him his £1 and said he did not mind if he did not win an Easter egg.

    His teacher on hearing the story told him and his class he would be given a free entry for his kindness

    As it so happens his friend actually won the two Easter eggs and on winning turned to my grandson and said "lets have one each'

    What an example to all of us, and especially the politicians who are supposed to serve us

    Sweet story. Socialism in action. ;-)
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 692
    edited April 14
    Surely they want the Conservative party to do well in opinion polls and elections but their actions will achieve the opposite.

    Really? But what if Brexit were never the goal but merely a means to an end? Perhaps the actual goal is to realign the right, cast off the One Nation wing and form the mirror image of a Momentum led Labour Party on the right. A Farage led Tory party is no more outlandish than a Corbyn leadership was five years ago.

    If a schism were the objective, the actions of the ERG ultras, the UKIP insurgency and a renewed threat from right (The Brexit Party) to whom MPs can threaten to defect all make sense. All supercharged by a betrayal myth deselecting blame towards May, Grieve, Boles etc.

    Edit: meant to say deflecting blame, but autocorrected to deselecting, spooky.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,037
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

    Again.
    Quite.
    Hamilton’s set of mediums were used in qualifying; Bottas’ are new. Will it make any difference ?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

    Again.
    Quite.
    Hamilton’s set of mediums were used in qualifying; Bottas’ are new. Will it make any difference ?

    Not with Leclerc being a very good team player.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,283
    “Turning Japanese” surely TSE doesn’t think the ERG are a wunch of bankers?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,037
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

    Again.
    Quite.
    Hamilton’s set of mediums were used in qualifying; Bottas’ are new. Will it make any difference ?

    Not with Leclerc being a very good team player.
    And the team screw him again.
    Chance of FLAP, though.

  • Rexel56 said:

    Surely they want the Conservative party to do well in opinion polls and elections but their actions will achieve the opposite.

    Really? But what if Brexit were never the goal but merely a means to an end? Perhaps the actual goal is to realign the right, cast off the One Nation wing and form the mirror image of a Momentum led Labour Party on the right. A Farage led Tory party is no more outlandish than a Corbyn leadership was five years ago.

    If a schism were the objective, the actions of the ERG ultras, the UKIP insurgency and a renewed threat from right (The Brexit Party) to whom MPs can threaten to defect all make sense. All supercharged by a betrayal myth deselecting blame towards May, Grieve, Boles etc.

    Edit: meant to say deflecting blame, but autocorrected to deselecting, spooky.

    Some of the right wing tories would probably be quite happy with that, but others are so Euro-obsessed (and dim) it seems unlikely to be part of such a machiavellian strategy.

    I think it is where we are heading and probably where we need to get to, let the country have three choices, corbyns left, the centre, and a nationalist right. Hopefully we would then choose to build upon what we have rather than becoming Venezuela or attempting to return to the 1950s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Jonathan said:

    I have no doubt the ERG turning Japanese is the reason why we are where we are now and however this pans out history will not be kind to them

    However time for a lovely story in these times:


    My grandson (10) was asked to bring a £1 into school last week for an Easter egg competition.

    When he arrived at school one of his friends tearfully commented he had not got a £1. Unhesitatingly my grandson gave him his £1 and said he did not mind if he did not win an Easter egg.

    His teacher on hearing the story told him and his class he would be given a free entry for his kindness

    As it so happens his friend actually won the two Easter eggs and on winning turned to my grandson and said "lets have one each'

    What an example to all of us, and especially the politicians who are supposed to serve us

    Sweet story. Socialism in action. ;-)
    Not really. Millions didn't die.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
    The trouble is that the Westminster parties don’t really exist meaningfully at the EU level (unlike other European parties). They had no incentive to take EU elections seriously.

    Success of the EU project risked the old party’s survival. You can see Brexit as the defence response of the old system and vested interests.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,228
    edited April 14

    Jonathan said:

    I have no doubt the ERG turning Japanese is the reason why we are where we are now and however this pans out history will not be kind to them

    However time for a lovely story in these times:


    My grandson (10) was asked to bring a £1 into school last week for an Easter egg competition.

    When he arrived at school one of his friends tearfully commented he had not got a £1. Unhesitatingly my grandson gave him his £1 and said he did not mind if he did not win an Easter egg.

    His teacher on hearing the story told him and his class he would be given a free entry for his kindness

    As it so happens his friend actually won the two Easter eggs and on winning turned to my grandson and said "lets have one each'

    What an example to all of us, and especially the politicians who are supposed to serve us

    Sweet story. Socialism in action. ;-)
    Not really. Millions didn't die.....
    Eh? Keep it light. It’s not even 9 on Sunday morning.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 692

    Rexel56 said:

    Surely they want the Conservative party to do well in opinion polls and elections but their actions will achieve the opposite.

    Really? But what if Brexit were never the goal but merely a means to an end? Perhaps the actual goal is to realign the right, cast off the One Nation wing and form the mirror image of a Momentum led Labour Party on the right. A Farage led Tory party is no more outlandish than a Corbyn leadership was five years ago.

    If a schism were the objective, the actions of the ERG ultras, the UKIP insurgency and a renewed threat from right (The Brexit Party) to whom MPs can threaten to defect all make sense. All supercharged by a betrayal myth deselecting blame towards May, Grieve, Boles etc.

    Edit: meant to say deflecting blame, but autocorrected to deselecting, spooky.

    Some of the right wing tories would probably be quite happy with that, but others are so Euro-obsessed (and dim) it seems unlikely to be part of such a machiavellian strategy.

    I think it is where we are heading and probably where we need to get to, let the country have three choices, corbyns left, the centre, and a nationalist right. Hopefully we would then choose to build upon what we have rather than becoming Venezuela or attempting to return to the 1950s.
    Agree that the likes of Francois and Bridgen are foot soldiers. The suspicion is that what we are seeing has its roots deep in the enmity of the Maastricht years, the Cameron defeat of DD and the ridicule of Farage and UKIP members by Cameron and others. Tory activists around where I am see themselves liberated from the modernisation mantra, able to indulge their long suppressed nationalist and white supremacist instincts. They genuinely believe, and may well be right, that if they go on strike, deny the party activist support and votes, co-opt the disaffected and equally nationalist WWC from Labour then they can at very worst hold the balance of power in the country. At best they can take power and go on to undermine supranational institutions and make their plutocrat backers even richer, see USA for further details.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If I were to make a bet, I think it would be on CUK/LD doing a joint list, and ending up topping the polls. Assuming I got decent odds, of course.

    I don't think a joint list is permissible.
    The Remain List (LD/CUK/PC/SNP) or somesuch.
    Is it possible that only registered parties can submit a list of candidates, with independents standing as individuals?

    That would mean a Remain Alliance list would require registering a party, a level of organisation that ChangeUK are only just in time to make, but would be too late for a United Front of All Remain.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

    Again.
    Quite.
    Hamilton’s set of mediums were used in qualifying; Bottas’ are new. Will it make any difference ?

    Not with Leclerc being a very good team player.
    And the team screw him again.
    Chance of FLAP, though.

    Outplayed by both Mercedes and Red Bull today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
    Speak for yourself! at least 48% of the population are not disconnected.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897
    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Good morning, everyone.

    A red race for me, although qualifying was green, and Mr. Sandpit's early tip came off.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    Oh dear, all is not well in the arc of rightist twattery.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I have no doubt the ERG turning Japanese is the reason why we are where we are now and however this pans out history will not be kind to them

    However time for a lovely story in these times:


    My grandson (10) was asked to bring a £1 into school last week for an Easter egg competition.

    When he arrived at school one of his friends tearfully commented he had not got a £1. Unhesitatingly my grandson gave him his £1 and said he did not mind if he did not win an Easter egg.

    His teacher on hearing the story told him and his class he would be given a free entry for his kindness

    As it so happens his friend actually won the two Easter eggs and on winning turned to my grandson and said "lets have one each'

    What an example to all of us, and especially the politicians who are supposed to serve us

    Sweet story. Socialism in action. ;-)
    Not really. Millions didn't die.....
    Eh? Keep it light. It’s not even 9 on Sunday morning.
    How about this one?
    http://www.business.illinois.edu/broker/twocows.htm
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    edited April 14

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    edited April 14

    Good morning, everyone.

    A red race for me, although qualifying was green, and Mr. Sandpit's early tip came off.

    Green for me, but only by 1/5 of a stake! I’ll have to think carefully how I’m going to spend the £2.

    Not a bad race, with lots of strategy, but not the classic F1000 the promotors were hoping for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Random F1 bets. Prices on BF Exchange. First couple for very small money only.

    Fastest Lap, Max Verstappen, 9.8
    Points finish, George Russell, 19, Robert Kubica 19.5
    No Safety Car, 2.6
    Winner, Lewis Hamilton, 3.2, Charles Leclerc, 9.2
    (Already on Valtteri Bottas at 9 to win the race, from Friday)

    Ferrari embarrassing themselves again.

    Again.
    Quite.
    Hamilton’s set of mediums were used in qualifying; Bottas’ are new. Will it make any difference ?

    Not with Leclerc being a very good team player.
    And the team screw him again.
    Chance of FLAP, though.

    Outplayed by both Mercedes and Red Bull today.
    Have Paddy Power paid out on Hamilton and Mercedes for 2019 yet?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    No, it shows the British don't have a serious conservative party. The left and centre are functioning fine: plenty of choices, clear positions, and coherent groups in parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.

    That would probably be the sensible thing to do, from their point of view. All other considerations aside, it would get rid of Daniel Hannan.

    But I wonder if a better solution might not be to force the ERG loons to pay the cost of campaigning. That might finally persuade the useless bastards to support the deal...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.

    I had not thought of that. It would be a very astute move for the Tories in some ways - allows them to show they are committed to Brexit and trash the EU election results in one move.

    In fact it's so astute, there's not a chance Theresa May will do it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353

    The Conservatives might yet withdraw from these elections. That’s a better than 12/1 shot.

    I had not thought of that. It would be a very astute move for the Tories in some ways - allows them to show they are committed to Brexit and trash the EU election results in one move.

    In fact it's so astute, there's not a chance Theresa May will do it.
    It would also save them some money.....
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    Precisely. I won't spell out why it is racist at this time on a Sunday morning.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    The Vapors hit was a bit culturally insensitive, probably even when it was new.
  • The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    Precisely. I won't spell out why it is racist at this time on a Sunday morning.
    I took my inspiration from this well known Economist front page and article.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    Precisely. I won't spell out why it is racist at this time on a Sunday morning.
    Iain Duncan Smith is of course one-eighth Japanese.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Foxy said:

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    The Vapors hit was a bit culturally insensitive, probably even when it was new.
    Just looked at the lyrics again and I'm struggling to see how?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,631

    Oh dear, all is not well in the arc of rightist twattery.

    Who knew the Brazilian president was a member of the UK Labour party (Momentum) ?!?
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 14

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    edited April 14

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    I think we all know that when it came to it, Farage would be letting others pick up the rifles and fire the bullets.

    'Terrible news that individuals have resorted to violence but no surprise. Events like these will be the Remainer legacy.'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240
    edited April 14

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He's also got one knacker like Hitler.

    Also, a flabby 50 odd year smoker with a bad back isn't best placed for a spot of armed insurrection.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    Precisely. I won't spell out why it is racist at this time on a Sunday morning.
    If you're going to have a pop about TSE casual racism why not save it for his regular abuse directed at the French?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,977
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He's also got one knacker like Hitler.
    I think we need to know in which national musical venue the other resides.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,897

    Foxy said:

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    The Vapors hit was a bit culturally insensitive, probably even when it was new.
    Just looked at the lyrics again and I'm struggling to see how?
    I'll let TSE explain...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,631
    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the LibDems and ChangeUK will tag team for the Euro Elections and then outpoll the Tories in the TSE nightmare scenario?

    Yellow Peril Tiggers Winning Here and There .... :smile:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    Margaret Hodges going to a meeting with Corbyn 'wired' makes Corbyn a much more appealing leader. You know he would neither do that sort of thing himself nor suspect anyone else of doing it. There's something appealing about not suspecting duplicity in a fellow human being even if it turns out to be a naive belief.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,394
    Roger said:

    Margaret Hodges going to a meeting with Corbyn 'wired' makes Corbyn a much more appealing leader. You know he would neither do that sort of thing himself nor suspect anyone else of doing it. There's something appealing about not suspecting duplicity in a fellow human being even if it turns out to be a naive belief.
    The fact that his own MPs trust Corbyn so little they feel the need to record his actual words shows he is an appealing leader?

    It's a view...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. Sandpit, aye, it was reasonable, but Bahrain was far more entertaining.

    Race was red, but the weekend green, so can't be too grumpy. My prediction about Renault getting points or a DNF proved accurate.

    Comedy circuit Azerbaijan is up next.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 14

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
    I think you do get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. Your side does it too, in much more gruesome and explicit ways.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He's also got one knacker like Hitler.
    I think we need to know in which national musical venue the other resides.
    When they carved off NF's cancerous ball they threw the wrong bit away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Scott_P said:
    Ooh, here we go. I’d much rather hear it first hand from Barnier though.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He's also got one knacker like Hitler.
    I think we need to know in which national musical venue the other resides.
    When they carved off NF's cancerous ball they threw the wrong bit away.
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He's also got one knacker like Hitler.
    I think we need to know in which national musical venue the other resides.
    When they carved off NF's cancerous ball they threw the wrong bit away.
    Here we are. And we are supposed to believe we are the nasty ones.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
    I think you do get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. Your side does it too, in much more gruesome and explicit ways.
    Hmm. Traitors, quislings, betrayal, enemies of the people, saboteurs - the extremist Leave camp will need to explain which of those they consider metaphors and which are on the charge sheet. In that context, picking up a rifle doesn’t sound the slightest bit metaphorical.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,809

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
    Or more recently, the convicted paedophile right wing activist Jack Renshaw plotted to kill Rosie Cooper MP. Far right terrorism is a genuine threat.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/neo-nazi-plotted-murder-of-labour-mp-and-detective-to-cover-up-his-paedophilia-1.482465
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352
    edited April 14

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
    I think you do get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. Your side does it too, in much more gruesome and explicit ways.
    Hmm. Traitors, quislings, betrayal, enemies of the people, saboteurs - the extremist Leave camp will need to explain which of those they consider metaphors and which are on the charge sheet. In that context, picking up a rifle doesn’t sound the slightest bit metaphorical.
    The people described by those words have betrayed the referendum, so should expect flak. It’s fair enough to describe a political battle in war like terms, and that’s all he did.

    If he had said he wanted to chop up a particular female politician and put her in his freezer I would agree he’d gone way, way too far
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    I think the likely Tory voteshare is in the range of 15 to 25% and I cannot see it falling under 10%, indeed do not forget about 40% of Tory voters in 2015 voted Remain in 2016 and they alone would get the Tories to 15% even if every Tory Leave voter voted UKIP or Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections. In fact Opinium actually shows the Tory vote is now the most equally balanced between Leavers and Remainers of any party's vote in the European elections
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,591
    Mr. P, yep, that's why the deal passed by a majority of 500.

    The vast majority of those who voted against the deal were Remainers. The ERG's voting habits shouldn't be ignored, but nor should their importance be overblown. Ignoring the 90% or so of MPs who voted against the deal, and who simply don't want us to leave, is daft.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,240

    Foxy said:

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    Racism in the thread header??... surely just an amusing reference to The Vapors' hit?
    The Vapors hit was a bit culturally insensitive, probably even when it was new.
    Just looked at the lyrics again and I'm struggling to see how?
    Go and rub one out. When you're approaching Billy Mill roundabout look in the mirror. There will be a certain oriental cast to your facial expression.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
    I think you do get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. Your side does it too, in much more gruesome and explicit ways.
    Hmm. Traitors, quislings, betrayal, enemies of the people, saboteurs - the extremist Leave camp will need to explain which of those they consider metaphors and which are on the charge sheet. In that context, picking up a rifle doesn’t sound the slightest bit metaphorical.
    The people described by those words have betrayed the referendum, so should expect flak. It’s fair enough to describe a political battle in war like terms, and that’s all he did.

    If he had said he wanted to chop up a particular female politician and put her in his freezer I would agree he’d gone way, way too far
    No, it’s not all he did. You don’t get the right to say “just a metaphor” when people are going round and unmetaphorically acting just as you describe. Corporal Farage has to decide whether he is a respectable politician acting within normal terms of debate or the head of a mob. He can’t ride both horses.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    I don't expect to win, but politics is very volatile at the moment and I've put a tenner on this.

    It should probably be 5/1 or 6/1, so this is value.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited April 14

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    And I'm not particularly comfortable about the racism in the thread header.

    The Tories are the largest group in the ECR (having been in the EPP previously), the third biggest group in the European Parliament now and Farage leads the EFDD group which has 41 MEPs
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    The EPP is the largest grouping in the European Parliament and yet British voters won't even have the option of voting for an EPP candidate or list. Just goes to show that this is not a serious election.

    No, it shows the British don't have a serious conservative party. The left and centre are functioning fine: plenty of choices, clear positions, and coherent groups in parliament.
    What do the EPP do that's remotely conservative?
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 692
    I had a cousin with Downs Syndrome, great fun but his last few years were pretty tough. Growing up with him in the 70s and 80s it was good to see the change in acceptance, a big part of which was the increasingly rare use of the term ‘mongol’ and even more hurtful ‘mong’. The latter was heard in the school playground or in the street, a particularly insensitive form of abuse given its origin.

    How sad then to read a prominent Brexiteer in these parts on social media yesterday referring to a Remain supporter as “you mong”... very sad.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,668
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ooh, here we go. I’d much rather hear it first hand from Barnier though.
    Sounds like crap. At the very least IDS has heard what he wants to hear.
  • isamisam Posts: 25,352

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    He has said that he would pick up a rifle if Brexit isn’t delivered. He doesn’t come with clean hands on this.
    He was so obviously talking metaphorically that I cannot believe you have just written that.

    Do we think George Osborne wants to chop up Theresa May and put her in a freezer?

    The world is going mad (apologies to all people suffering any form of mental illness)
    He said that less than a year after someone killed an MP as a traitor, apparently over Brexit. You don’t get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. It is only too easy to take it literally, and many do.
    I think you do get the right to talk metaphorically in those circumstances. Your side does it too, in much more gruesome and explicit ways.
    Hmm. Traitors, quislings, betrayal, enemies of the people, saboteurs - the extremist Leave camp will need to explain which of those they consider metaphors and which are on the charge sheet. In that context, picking up a rifle doesn’t sound the slightest bit metaphorical.
    The people described by those words have betrayed the referendum, so should expect flak. It’s fair enough to describe a political battle in war like terms, and that’s all he did.

    If he had said he wanted to chop up a particular female politician and put her in his freezer I would agree he’d gone way, way too far
    No, it’s not all he did. You don’t get the right to say “just a metaphor” when people are going round and unmetaphorically acting just as you describe. Corporal Farage has to decide whether he is a respectable politician acting within normal terms of debate or the head of a mob. He can’t ride both horses.
    You don’t get the right to dictate the terms under which he chooses to operate. Using the analogy of a soldier going to war to illustrate that you’re going to take on a political opponent is perfectly appropriate anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories exist (at least in large part) to stop Labour. They are a response to FPTP. The trouble with the Euro’s is that doesn’t really apply. Come the general, it will, and the Tories will be as strong as ever they were. So who cares about the Euros in party terms. It is only interesting as a de facto proxy for a PV.

    That the UK's voters can have a laugh with their vote in the Euro elections just shows how disconnected we are from the EU Project.....
    Speak for yourself! at least 48% of the population are not disconnected.

    Plenty of the 48% have little time for the EU Project. They just think, on balance, it makes more sense if we stay.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Scott_P said:
    Calamity Cooper: the dolt of a man who made it all possible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,353
    Just in case anybody hasn't caught up with Fleabag series 2.....

    I have binge watched all 6 episodes. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Mr. Sandpit, aye, it was reasonable, but Bahrain was far more entertaining.

    Race was red, but the weekend green, so can't be too grumpy. My prediction about Renault getting points or a DNF proved accurate.

    Comedy circuit Azerbaijan is up next.

    Was a very good weekend overall, we both picked out the pole sitter from Friday’s running.

    Next race around the streets of Baku is always a good one - bet on the Williamses for points, several safety cars and lots of overtaking!

    Ferrari are getting laughed at for their strategy today.
This discussion has been closed.