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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the 2nd anniversary of TMay calling GE2017 fewer are predic

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,192

    nielh said:

    nielh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    snip

    The cycle only ends when people (eventually) realise that getting in the way of willing buyer, willing seller only makes things worse.
    I'm not sure that there is this clear line between good and bad landlords. This is a myth that is perpetrated by organisations like the Landlords Association. I think that both landlords and tenants are largely motivated by self interest.

    One likely consequence is that private sector landlords will withdraw from the market when there is more regulation. As there is less supply, this will put rents up.
    To withdraw you have to sell.

    Very hard to sell at the moment.
    If renting out the place becomes too risky and a money pit due to regulation, then you have no alternative option, and there is always a price you can sell at.
    You have to take a big haircut to sell quickly and in a hurry.
    As I understand it this system is already up and running in Scotland, so we should have at least some info on the effects.

    There was a PB discussion on this a few weeks back, when Labour announced such rental plans would go in next manifesto.

    So this is partly Tories shooting a Labour fox.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    H
    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708

    Yes, London has a more extreme problem than other cities, and in some parts of the country things are fine. London and the South East is around a quarter of the population, add in the regional towns and cities where its a problem and you are probably up to 35-45% of the population live in places where the gap between earnings and house prices is too big.

    For young people that % will be higher as they naturally tend to live in cities, especially those where there are more and better jobs.

    From a political perspective it is the young people in those areas that have tended to switch to Conservative voters in their thirties and forties as they built up capital to conserve. That has stopped happening at anything like the same rate.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972

    Yes, London has a more extreme problem than other cities, and in some parts of the country things are fine. London and the South East is around a quarter of the population, add in the regional towns and cities where its a problem and you are probably up to 35-45% of the population live in places where the gap between earnings and house prices is too big.

    For young people that % will be higher as they naturally tend to live in cities, especially those where there are more and better jobs.

    Hmmm. Food for thought. My granddaughter and her SO live in Hull, and AFAIK are happy with the rents they are paying. However, rents locally to me seem very high.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,190
    Two months seems to me like a very short notice period to give tenants. Perhaps four to six months would be more reasonable.

  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,119
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    l

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    There was once a family called Brexit. Mummy Brexit Daddy Brexit and Billy Brexit and they all lived in a little house in tiny village. One day some new neigbours moved in speaking a language that the Brexits couldn't understand.

    Mummy Brexit didn't like this so she got Daddy Brexit to drive a little white van around the village with a big sign saying 'Go away neigbours you aren't wanted here'.

    Daddy Brexit had left school when he was very young so he wasn't very clever and everybody called him 'thicko'. He loved driving this van because it was so very very white......

    One day Billy was walking to school
    And the final family member was Roger Brexit, who could not complete a story or use a quote system. ;)
    Just a synopsis and a couple of paragraphs! What do you expect-Harry Potter?
    Witch storyline were you planning to develop further?
    The old king in the big,rich city far, far away ignored the Brexits and left them to continue their miserable life while his courtiers portrayed everyone who disagreed with him as evil
    But one day the old king abdicated, and the Good Witch of the May and her flock of flying unicorns came to help the people of the kingdom, telling them she could magically make the foreigners Go Home and make all the people's wishes come true, and then they would all live happily ever after.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    Long, long time since I rented, but I seem to recall buying a refrigerator and, eventually a washing machine. Not quite sure about the cooker.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,590
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    l

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    There was once a family called Brexit. Mummy Brexit Daddy Brexit and Billy Brexit and they all lived in a little house in tiny village. One day some new neigbours moved in speaking a language that the Brexits couldn't understand.

    Mummy Brexit didn't like this so she got Daddy Brexit to drive a little white van around the village with a big sign saying 'Go away neigbours you aren't wanted here'.

    Daddy Brexit had left school when he was very young so he wasn't very clever and everybody called him 'thicko'. He loved driving this van because it was so very very white......

    One day Billy was walking to school
    And the final family member was Roger Brexit, who could not complete a story or use a quote system. ;)
    Just a synopsis and a couple of paragraphs! What do you expect-Harry Potter?
    Witch storyline were you planning to develop further?
    The old king in the big,rich city far, far away ignored the Brexits and left them to continue their miserable life while his courtiers portrayed everyone who disagreed with him as evil
    Are you saying he made them farage for nuts and berries?
    let them eat fruit cake.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    l

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    There was once a family called Brexit. Mummy Brexit Daddy Brexit and Billy Brexit and they all lived in a little house in tiny village. One day some new neigbours moved in speaking a language that the Brexits couldn't understand.

    Mummy Brexit didn't like this so she got Daddy Brexit to drive a little white van around the village with a big sign saying 'Go away neigbours you aren't wanted here'.

    Daddy Brexit had left school when he was very young so he wasn't very clever and everybody called him 'thicko'. He loved driving this van because it was so very very white......

    One day Billy was walking to school
    And the final family member was Roger Brexit, who could not complete a story or use a quote system. ;)
    Just a synopsis and a couple of paragraphs! What do you expect-Harry Potter?
    Witch storyline were you planning to develop further?
    The old king in the big,rich city far, far away ignored the Brexits and left them to continue their miserable life while his courtiers portrayed everyone who disagreed with him as evil
    But one day the old king abdicated, and the Good Witch of the May and her flock of flying unicorns came to help the people of the kingdon, telling them she could magically make the foreigners Go Home and grant all the people's wishes, and then they would all live happily ever after.
    She’ll never get it through Parliament
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Damp squib Mueller report about to go off biggly

    https://twitter.com/timrote/status/1117460660026085377?s=19
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, a general election will probably only be called when it looks like it is in the interests of a majority of the present House of Commons. So the single likeliest scenario is that it happens more or less by accident.

    I've been betting against a 2019 election all year and I'm comfortable with that.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    @Isam

    You've never watched "Yes Minister" or "Star Trek"???

    :(:(:(

    No.

    And only Star Wars (once) out of that series of films, never watched Superman either. I don’t like sci fi at all really.
    Although Yes Minister doesn’t really involve either science or fiction...
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited April 2019

    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    Long, long time since I rented, but I seem to recall buying a refrigerator and, eventually a washing machine. Not quite sure about the cooker.
    When I say kitchen, I mean bring your own units, not just white goods and hob. Then take them away when you leave.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,119
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    l

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    There was once a family called Brexit. Mummy Brexit Daddy Brexit and Billy Brexit and they all lived in a little house in tiny village. One day some new neigbours moved in speaking a language that the Brexits couldn't understand.

    Mummy Brexit didn't like this so she got Daddy Brexit to drive a little white van around the village with a big sign saying 'Go away neigbours you aren't wanted here'.

    Daddy Brexit had left school when he was very young so he wasn't very clever and everybody called him 'thicko'. He loved driving this van because it was so very very white......

    One day Billy was walking to school
    And the final family member was Roger Brexit, who could not complete a story or use a quote system. ;)
    Just a synopsis and a couple of paragraphs! What do you expect-Harry Potter?
    Witch storyline were you planning to develop further?
    The old king in the big,rich city far, far away ignored the Brexits and left them to continue their miserable life while his courtiers portrayed everyone who disagreed with him as evil
    But one day the old king abdicated, and the Good Witch of the May and her flock of flying unicorns came to help the people of the kingdon, telling them she could magically make the foreigners Go Home and grant all the people's wishes, and then they would all live happily ever after.
    She’ll never get it through Parliament
    Wait for it - I was coming on to Mean Prince Jacob and the Arghs in due course.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    @Isam

    You've never watched "Yes Minister" or "Star Trek"???

    :(:(:(

    No.

    And only Star Wars (once) out of that series of films, never watched Superman either. I don’t like sci fi at all really.
    Although Yes Minister doesn’t really involve either science or fiction...
    Ooh I might give it a go!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,590

    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    Long, long time since I rented, but I seem to recall buying a refrigerator and, eventually a washing machine. Not quite sure about the cooker.
    When my dad rented a flat in Paris in the mid eighties, he moved in and was a little surprised that the kitchen had gone with the previous tenant. just some pipes sticking out the wall. He had 3 years there, so it was worthwhile to fit one.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Cyclefree said:

    Two months seems to me like a very short notice period to give tenants. Perhaps four to six months would be more reasonable.


    I agree, but the quid pro quo should be that bad tenants (repeated non-payment, abusive behaviour to neighbours) should be subject to immediate eviction. That’s not the case at present. There’s a general assumption that tenants are one the side of angels and landlords are all Rachmanesque. One look at the general public should disabuse you of that.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    matt said:

    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    Long, long time since I rented, but I seem to recall buying a refrigerator and, eventually a washing machine. Not quite sure about the cooker.
    When I say kitchen, I mean bring your own units, not just white goods and hob. Then taken them away when you leave.
    TBH, that doesn't seem unreasonable as a concept. A problem in UK, as with renting, is that the lower one's income, the harder it is to get credit (obviously) and the higher the interest charges.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,590
    Cyclefree said:

    Two months seems to me like a very short notice period to give tenants. Perhaps four to six months would be more reasonable.

    It should be conditional on behaviour. Some tenants trash the place, or don't pay the rent.

    There are bad landlords, but also some very bad tenants.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Miss Cyclefree, I agree. Four to six months seems eminently fair. It seems strange to me that (and I haven't read up on this so I might be wrong) there's a plan to stop landlords ending a tenancy because they want to, on a permanent basis [unless the tenant's done something horrendous]. A balance should be struck between fairness for the tenant (who seems to have a poor deal currently) and the landlord (who seems to have a poor deal under the proposed change, but who also has the option of just selling up and reducing the rental housing available).

    Hmm. Be interesting to know what the rental rate approach is, actually. If rent can't be altered then that's going to either be inflationarily painful for the landlord *or* rents will rise (before an agreement is signed) to account for the potentially eternal tenant. If rent can be increased, a landlord could simply de facto evict a tenant by hiking the rent to an unpayable rate.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Cyclefree said:

    Two months seems to me like a very short notice period to give tenants. Perhaps four to six months would be more reasonable.

    Most contracts start with fixed terms. Six months, maybe twelve. After that they become rolling contracts, which may be terminated on an agreed notice period - usually two months for the landlord and one month for the tenant.

    The obvious compromise would be to eliminate rolling contracts. Make all contracts twelve months, to be reviewed three months prior to their expiration.

    However, one issue is that might not be terribly popular with tenants, particularly those in temporary jobs (say a teacher on a 6 month maternity contract). It would take away their ability to be flexible as well, because once you are tied into such a contract you are liable for all costs associated with it. The other thing I suspect it would do is lead to annual rent reviews, which mysteriously always go up rather than down.

    I rented for fourteen years and then within six months of finally buying unexpectedly became a landlord. I don't know that my tenant would call me a good landlord, but I'm trying my best. From both points of view I'm very suspicious of this proposal. I thought it was a stupid idea designed for naked popularity when Labour proposed it, and I still think that now. I think it would cause at least as many problems as it would solve for tenants.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    edited April 2019

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    "During an exit interview with President Barack Obama in November, 2016, just weeks after the election, David Remnick asked who would be the leaders of the Democratic Party and the contenders to oppose Trump in 2020. Obama mentioned people like Kamala Harris, of California, and Tim Kaine, of Virginia, along with a very surprising figure: Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who was only thirty-five at the time."

    New Yorker magazine.

    I know very little of american politics, but true or not I assume being perceived as an Obama annointed candidate would be quite useful, particularly for someone until now unknown nationally.

    His boldness has to be admired.
    Was there any contemporaneous evidence for this? If it had been published at the time someone would have picked it up but he seems to have sprung from nowhere in the past few months

    Obama can’t deny it without taking sides

    I suspect a plant to claim some sparkle
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    Are you sure he’s that well developed?
    You'd need a pack of crayons too.....
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Don't get me started on deposits. The government scheme have actually lost our tenant's deposit so I'm on the hook for that when she leaves (because the useless drug addled mother****ers are refusing to admit liability).
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,192
    An issue for landlords will be what happens when they want to sell.

    From what I understand from Scotland, you have prove to a 1st tier tribunal that you really are selling and involves providing documentation e.g. solicitor's letter, estate agents contract

    Seems to me a risk that this will slow down or even halt some sales (landlord can't be bothered and so sits on it) and may have an impact of supply of housing to buy for 1st timers.

    iirc there is already an issue with landlords keeping properties longer than they would like, to avoid facing the CGT bill.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited April 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    Will they? That’s almost identical to the typically btler’s viewpoint that a property disappears into smoke as they sell it (no it’s bought by someone else who will rent it out or by someone who rented who will no longer need to rent somewhere)
    The problem is not that demand for rented accommodation disappears (there are always going to be good reasons to rent rather than own), simply that legislation like this results in good landlords leaving the industry to be replaced by unscrupulous ones.

    Is there anyone, anywhere in the world, who had a good experience with a rent controlled apartment landlord?

    The answer is... err... no. Because good landlords sell to bad landlords, who attempt to get rid of their tenants via unscrupulous methods. Now, this legislation isn't so severe. But it's heading in that direction. Landlords will now use rent increases to get rid of tenants they don't want. So, there will be legislation enacted to limit landlords flexibility to raise rents.

    The cycle only ends when people (eventually) realise that getting in the way of willing buyer, willing seller only makes things worse.
    Wet policies like this are part of the Conservatives craven fear of the appeal of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour to young voters.

    They don’t have the courage to explain why the current system is superior so they just give ground.
    For rental the current system is not so superior, Germany for example gives much more security to tenants so this is a step in the right direction.

    Landlords will still be able to evict 'with good reason'
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    HYUFD said:

    For rental the current system is not so superior, Germany for example gives much more security to tenants so this is a step in the right direction.

    Germany also has a very different labour market with far fewer short term contracts and far less gadding about the country. The rental market doesn't exist in isolation as @OldKingCole has pointed out.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    An issue for landlords will be what happens when they want to sell.

    From what I understand from Scotland, you have prove to a 1st tier tribunal that you really are selling and involves providing documentation e.g. solicitor's letter, estate agents contract

    Seems to me a risk that this will slow down or even halt some sales (landlord can't be bothered and so sits on it) and may have an impact of supply of housing to buy for 1st timers.

    iirc there is already an issue with landlords keeping properties longer than they would like, to avoid facing the CGT bill.

    I have little sympathy with the CGT argument - if you haven’t considered that when starting, what were you doing?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Get Brexit wrapped up, then go, ministers tell May

    What the bloody heck do they think she has been trying to do?! She even promised to go once it was done, and even that did not unlock the votes needed.
    Lol. I think 6 months of nudging the can while Tories debate whether or not to force her out now and then decide maybe not sounds...rather nice. For Labour.
    Although I think Labour is losing its fear that a popular replacement might be able to snatch a majority; the Tories are starting to look like losers under any leader.
    Most of the weekend polls had Corbyn Labour under 35% ie doing no better than Kinnock's Labour in 1992.

    The only reason Labour has opened up a lead in most of the polls is Tory defections to the Brexit Party and UKIP which can be reversed under the right Tory leader
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.


    You neglected to mention 3. The parasitic, actively lying, moral cesspit intermediaries that are the shiny suited Foxton-types.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    matt said:

    An issue for landlords will be what happens when they want to sell.

    From what I understand from Scotland, you have prove to a 1st tier tribunal that you really are selling and involves providing documentation e.g. solicitor's letter, estate agents contract

    Seems to me a risk that this will slow down or even halt some sales (landlord can't be bothered and so sits on it) and may have an impact of supply of housing to buy for 1st timers.

    iirc there is already an issue with landlords keeping properties longer than they would like, to avoid facing the CGT bill.

    I have little sympathy with the CGT argument - if you haven’t considered that when starting, what were you doing?
    I would have said the issue is rather - why would they think hanging on to a property in a time of steadily rising prices would reduce the CGT bill?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
    I'm the main advocate here of renting as a choice - on the Continent it's in many places the norm. You treat housing as you would any other service - something you could specialise in yourself if you wanted to, but often best to just buy it in from someone who knows all about property repair, boiler replacement etc. You need an attentive landlord who fixes any problems efficiently, and that's what I've always experienced with mid-market rentals - most of the problems reported are from the seedy end of the market.

    A 6-month standard for rolling contracts seems a reasonable compromise, with the usual get-out that if you want to move and a new tenant appears, you don't have to pay to the end. I know someone on a current rolling contract - she is literally terrified and sees it as a sword of Damocles, forcing her to take any old place to get away from it.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited April 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    For rental the current system is not so superior, Germany for example gives much more security to tenants so this is a step in the right direction.

    Germany also has a very different labour market with far fewer short term contracts and far less gadding about the country. The rental market doesn't exist in isolation as @OldKingCole has pointed out.
    Well if you are a tenant on a short term contract who wants to end your rental contract early you can still do that. Germany is also not immune to the gig economy either, if it was it would have higher unemployment than it does
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Betting Post

    F1: I recommend splitting one stake or so amongst this lot, because there's a lot of money for long shots otherwise. However, Azerbaijan has been something of a crash-happy race in the past. It has a high chance of relatively high DNF rates again. A year or two ago, Stroll ended up on the podium.

    Currently, the winner market has fifth the odds top three each way (ie, bets pay out for a podium). You *may* be better off waiting for the podium market in a week or so. Or not.

    Each way, I've backed the following to win (prices are Ladbrokes, with boost):
    Ricciardo 651
    Hulkenberg 651
    Magnussen 901
    Grosjean 901
    Raikkonen 1301
    Perez 1751
    Stroll 3001

    If Giovinazzi wins I'll be bloody annoyed.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,650
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    For rental the current system is not so superior, Germany for example gives much more security to tenants so this is a step in the right direction.

    Germany also has a very different labour market with far fewer short term contracts and far less gadding about the country. The rental market doesn't exist in isolation as @OldKingCole has pointed out.
    Well if you are a tenant on a short term contract who wants to end your rental contract early you can still do that. Germany is also not immune to the gig economy either, if it was it would have higher unemployment than it does
    So: UK has low unemployment and a gig economy; Germany has low unemployment, therefore must also have a gig economy.

    Not sure that neccessarily follows - it might be true but I would like to see the evidence.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    For rental the current system is not so superior, Germany for example gives much more security to tenants so this is a step in the right direction.

    Germany also has a very different labour market with far fewer short term contracts and far less gadding about the country. The rental market doesn't exist in isolation as @OldKingCole has pointed out.
    Well if you are a tenant on a short term contract who wants to end your rental contract early you can still do that. Germany is also not immune to the gig economy either, if it was it would have higher unemployment than it does
    Hmmm...I'm not totally convinced by this reasoning. The words 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' spring to mind. Could you explain a bit further?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Trapadvisor?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,650
    edited April 2019

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.


    Surely a 'Tripadvisor' for landlords and tenants would just generate lots of libel work for lawyers?

    Oh...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,192

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
    I'm the main advocate here of renting as a choice - on the Continent it's in many places the norm. You treat housing as you would any other service - something you could specialise in yourself if you wanted to, but often best to just buy it in from someone who knows all about property repair, boiler replacement etc. You need an attentive landlord who fixes any problems efficiently, and that's what I've always experienced with mid-market rentals - most of the problems reported are from the seedy end of the market.

    A 6-month standard for rolling contracts seems a reasonable compromise, with the usual get-out that if you want to move and a new tenant appears, you don't have to pay to the end. I know someone on a current rolling contract - she is literally terrified and sees it as a sword of Damocles, forcing her to take any old place to get away from it.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,650

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Trapadvisor?
    Already taken - that's the Tripadvisor for public toilets. :wink:
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    A typo on the WillHill website has created an amusing palp. You can bet on the party which will win the 2012 Presidential Election!
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    In Germany you can live in the same rental for decades.

    Why would you invest in a kitchen for your landlord when they can chuck you out in eight weeks.

    Buy to let has been a curse for society - driving up prices and reducing home ownership levels. One group leeching off the hard work of others via their ability to borrow money. They don’t solve a need for rental properties - they cause it!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,022
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    l

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    There was once a family called Brexit. Mummy Brexit Daddy Brexit and Billy Brexit and they all lived in a little house in tiny village. One day some new neigbours moved in speaking a language that the Brexits couldn't understand.

    Mummy Brexit didn't like this so she got Daddy Brexit to drive a little white van around the village with a big sign saying 'Go away neigbours you aren't wanted here'.

    Daddy Brexit had left school when he was very young so he wasn't very clever and everybody called him 'thicko'. He loved driving this van because it was so very very white......

    One day Billy was walking to school
    And the final family member was Roger Brexit, who could not complete a story or use a quote system. ;)
    Just a synopsis and a couple of paragraphs! What do you expect-Harry Potter?
    Witch storyline were you planning to develop further?
    The old king in the big,rich city far, far away ignored the Brexits and left them to continue their miserable life while his courtiers portrayed everyone who disagreed with him as evil
    But one day the old king abdicated, and the Good Witch of the May and her flock of flying unicorns came to help the people of the kingdom, telling them she could magically make the foreigners Go Home and make all the people's wishes come true, and then they would all live happily ever after.
    Narrator: they did not live happily ever after.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    brendan16 said:

    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    In Germany you can live in the same rental for decades.

    Why would you invest in a kitchen for your landlord when they can chuck you out in eight weeks.

    Buy to let has been a curse for society - driving up prices and reducing gown ownership levels. They don’t solve a need for rental properties - they cause it!
    They can't chuck you out in eight weeks - it's six months. Obviously not enough for a kitchen, though.

    I personally think they go a bit far, because they might discourage landlords from taking on marginal tenants too strongly.

    I would have favoured extending the six months to twelve months, or anywhere up to 2 years really.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    edited April 2019
    Renting in Paris is (unsurprisingly) much more in favour of the tenant than the UK. You can't just get evicted, rents can only be increased according to strictly regulated inflationary criteria, and generally once you have signed the lease you are left alone. It goes a bit far at times, such as being entirely unable to evict those who don't pay rent between October and March (to not make someone homeless during winter). Also it seems that there are no restrictions on having pets in the leases whereas that's a big issue in the UK.

    The flipside is that is is so much more difficult to actually get a lease signed, so many more hoops to jump through. But still, a step in the right direction for the UK I think.

    Edit: and you are not locked into leases for the whole term, you sign for an initial term that is normally rolling renewal, but you can cancel with 1 (furnished flat) or 3 months (unfurnished) notice.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    AirBnB is more or less that isn’t it?
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Renting in Paris is (unsurprisingly) much more in favour of the tenant than the UK. You can't just get evicted, rents can only be increased according to strictly regulated inflationary criteria, and generally once you have signed the lease you are left alone. It goes a bit far at times, such as being entirely unable to evict those who don't pay rent between October and March (to not make someone homeless during winter). Also it seems that there are no restrictions on having pets in the leases whereas that's a big issue in the UK.

    The flipside is that is is so much more difficult to actually get a lease signed, so many more hoops to jump through. But still, a step in the right direction for the UK I think.

    That last paragraph is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    brendan16 said:

    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    In Germany you can live in the same rental for decades.

    Why would you invest in a kitchen for your landlord when they can chuck you out in eight weeks.

    Buy to let has been a curse for society - driving up prices and reducing gown ownership levels. They don’t solve a need for rental properties - they cause it!
    They can't chuck you out in eight weeks - it's six months. Obviously not enough for a kitchen, though.

    I personally think they go a bit far, because they might discourage landlords from taking on marginal tenants too strongly.

    I would have favoured extending the six months to twelve months, or anywhere up to 2 years really.
    They can be chucked out in eight weeks AFTER the first 6 months are up. So you're both sort of right...
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    My experience of renting in Paris was it was almost all done on a grey-ish market, mates of mates doing favours. At least L'X had a scheme of trying to put foreign academics in touch with recent to recent-ish graduates which helped break that first hurdle.

  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited April 2019

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.


    Surely a 'Tripadvisor' for landlords and tenants would just generate lots of libel work for lawyers?

    Oh...
    I must admit that the deposit system is a rare part of the process that has worked for me. References have been OK.

    Landlord #1 nailed the fire escape shut
    Landlord #2 falsely claimed there was a sole, other occupant, to claim HB and council tax. Also defaulted on their electricity bill so the provider came after me.
    Landlord #3 tried to kick me out on 5 weeks' notice, and when I pointed out I was entitled to 2 months, they tried to raise my rent 85% in the interim (which of course they couldn't).
    Landlord #4 was OK, albeit the flat itself was a shambles, with briefly no working bath or shower, no oven, and no electricity. We did have an argument about cleaning at the end as they wanted to double up on a professional clean, but we agreed a compromise.
    Landlord #5 seems OK so far, although the draft lease does reserve a right to change the locks if I don't pay the rent - something which is a criminal offence as repossession requires a court order.

    Not all of them were aware I am a property disputes lawyer...
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,022
    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,897
    edited April 2019

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
    I'm the main advocate here of renting as a choice - on the Continent it's in many places the norm. You treat housing as you would any other service - something you could specialise in yourself if you wanted to, but often best to just buy it in from someone who knows all about property repair, boiler replacement etc. You need an attentive landlord who fixes any problems efficiently, and that's what I've always experienced with mid-market rentals - most of the problems reported are from the seedy end of the market.

    A 6-month standard for rolling contracts seems a reasonable compromise, with the usual get-out that if you want to move and a new tenant appears, you don't have to pay to the end. I know someone on a current rolling contract - she is literally terrified and sees it as a sword of Damocles, forcing her to take any old place to get away from it.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.
    While some properties are let privately, my impression from renting in Germany was that most rentals are professional lets by companies that own whole apartment blocks.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,719
    Streeter said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We were leading in the polls when the PM was trying to pass her deal. We stopped her. Now we are losing in the polls. It must be her fault!"

    I kid, she is a major problem not that this plotting is frontpage worthy news, but it is amusing how she got zero credit for them being in the lead against Labour, but I bet they think it all her fault now they are behind.
    One poster was correct that she needs to produce a picture book about Brexit for some of her MP's.

    "What does Barney the Brexit Dog say?" "Voting against Brexit means that Brexit doesn't happen"

    Mark Francois' single brain cell then starts whirring into life.

    "Oh right. Now I get it."

    Francois doesn’t think May’s Brexit means Brexit.

    Try again.
    Thats fine , if legally untrue, but he should not then get mad that Brexit has not happened at all. He was told a million times what might happen if he didn't want May's Brexit, yet he still acts surprised. So even if we accept the premise his desires are reasonable, hes still a self admitted idiot for not being able to see what would happen. Rees mogg and boris did, despite also hating the deal
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
    I'm the main advocate here of renting as a choice - on the Continent it's in many places the norm. You treat housing as you would any other service - something you could specialise in yourself if you wanted to, but often best to just buy it in from someone who knows all about property repair, boiler replacement etc. You need an attentive landlord who fixes any problems efficiently, and that's what I've always experienced with mid-market rentals - most of the problems reported are from the seedy end of the market.

    A 6-month standard for rolling contracts seems a reasonable compromise, with the usual get-out that if you want to move and a new tenant appears, you don't have to pay to the end. I know someone on a current rolling contract - she is literally terrified and sees it as a sword of Damocles, forcing her to take any old place to get away from it.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.
    While some properties are let privately, my impression from renting in Germany was that most rentals are commercial lets by companies that own whole apartment blocks.
    Evil corporations?? Corbyanites won't like that.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972

    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
    You mean I can't have my Thai (well, half) grandchildren to stay?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Miss Cyclefree, I agree. Four to six months seems eminently fair. It seems strange to me that (and I haven't read up on this so I might be wrong) there's a plan to stop landlords ending a tenancy because they want to, on a permanent basis [unless the tenant's done something horrendous]. A balance should be struck between fairness for the tenant (who seems to have a poor deal currently) and the landlord (who seems to have a poor deal under the proposed change, but who also has the option of just selling up and reducing the rental housing available).

    Hmm. Be interesting to know what the rental rate approach is, actually. If rent can't be altered then that's going to either be inflationarily painful for the landlord *or* rents will rise (before an agreement is signed) to account for the potentially eternal tenant. If rent can be increased, a landlord could simply de facto evict a tenant by hiking the rent to an unpayable rate.

    You can still buy properties with a sitting tenant. The price depends on actuarial calculations but it usually around 40% discount to vacant possession

    When you take Ito account leverage it means you can more or less plan on getting a 200% uplift on your equity in addition to the rental yield
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    Will they? That’s almost identical to the typically btler’s viewpoint that a property disappears into smoke as they sell it (no it’s bought by someone else who will rent it out or by someone who rented who will no longer need to rent somewhere)
    The problem is not that demand for rented accommodation disappears (there are always going to be good reasons to rent rather than own), simply that legislation like this results in good landlords leaving the industry to be replaced by unscrupulous ones.

    Is there anyone, anywhere in the world, who had a good experience with a rent controlled apartment landlord?

    The answer is... err... no. Because good landlords sell to bad landlords, who attempt to get rid of their tenants via unscrupulous methods. Now, this legislation isn't so severe. But it's heading in that direction. Landlords will now use rent increases to get rid of tenants they don't want. So, there will be legislation enacted to limit landlords flexibility to raise rents.

    The cycle only ends when people (eventually) realise that getting in the way of willing buyer, willing seller only makes things worse.
    Good buying opportunity though if you time the cycle right...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,807
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    Will they? That’s almost identical to the typically btler’s viewpoint that a property disappears into smoke as they sell it (no it’s bought by someone else who will rent it out or by someone who rented who will no longer need to rent somewhere)
    Being sure of being able to recover property is important to any landlord. There is a need to rent property on a short term basis (eg if you need to work or study in a town that's not in commuting distance) and so a market for rented property is important. Permanent tenure acts as a deterrent to any landlord. As RCS says, you finish up with the nastier landlords who intimidate their tenants to get them out (people like Rachman and Hoogstraten built their fortunes on the back of rent controlled- tenancies)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited April 2019

    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
    What a horrible smear! We are diverse
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    Will they? That’s almost identical to the typically btler’s viewpoint that a property disappears into smoke as they sell it (no it’s bought by someone else who will rent it out or by someone who rented who will no longer need to rent somewhere)
    The problem is not that demand for rented accommodation disappears (there are always going to be good reasons to rent rather than own), simply that legislation like this results in good landlords leaving the industry to be replaced by unscrupulous ones.

    Is there anyone, anywhere in the world, who had a good experience with a rent controlled apartment landlord?

    The answer is... err... no. Because good landlords sell to bad landlords, who attempt to get rid of their tenants via unscrupulous methods. Now, this legislation isn't so severe. But it's heading in that direction. Landlords will now use rent increases to get rid of tenants they don't want. So, there will be legislation enacted to limit landlords flexibility to raise rents.

    The cycle only ends when people (eventually) realise that getting in the way of willing buyer, willing seller only makes things worse.
    Good buying opportunity though if you time the cycle right...
    We have legislation on a fair rent basis, IIRC it's section 13 HA 1988.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,719
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    "During an exit interview with President Barack Obama in November, 2016, just weeks after the election, David Remnick asked who would be the leaders of the Democratic Party and the contenders to oppose Trump in 2020. Obama mentioned people like Kamala Harris, of California, and Tim Kaine, of Virginia, along with a very surprising figure: Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who was only thirty-five at the time."

    New Yorker magazine.

    I know very little of american politics, but true or not I assume being perceived as an Obama annointed candidate would be quite useful, particularly for someone until now unknown nationally.

    His boldness has to be admired.
    Was there any contemporaneous evidence for this? If it had been published at the time someone would have picked it up but he seems to have sprung from nowhere in the past few months

    Obama can’t deny it without taking sides

    I suspect a plant to claim some sparkle
    Hence why I put being 'perceived' as such a candidate. The truth or not hardly matters
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    Mr isam's 9.20am post today has to be one of the most unpleasant ever.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited April 2019

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    For rental the current system is not so superior, Germany for example gives much more security to tenants so this is a step in the right direction.

    Germany also has a very different labour market with far fewer short term contracts and far less gadding about the country. The rental market doesn't exist in isolation as @OldKingCole has pointed out.
    Well if you are a tenant on a short term contract who wants to end your rental contract early you can still do that. Germany is also not immune to the gig economy either, if it was it would have higher unemployment than it does
    So: UK has low unemployment and a gig economy; Germany has low unemployment, therefore must also have a gig economy.

    Not sure that neccessarily follows - it might be true but I would like to see the evidence.
    1.3 million Germans work in the gig economy

    https://medium.com/switch-collective/freelancers-in-germany-why-global-gig-economy-platforms-find-it-so-hard-to-succeed-134ccdff651
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited April 2019

    Mr isam's 9.20am post today has to be one of the most unpleasant ever.

    Really? I’ll take it down if you think it’s that bad.

    Don’t see why people should be able to smear Essex without a comeback though
  • Options



    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.

    I'm the main advocate here of renting as a choice - on the Continent it's in many places the norm. You treat housing as you would any other service - something you could specialise in yourself if you wanted to, but often best to just buy it in from someone who knows all about property repair, boiler replacement etc. You need an attentive landlord who fixes any problems efficiently, and that's what I've always experienced with mid-market rentals - most of the problems reported are from the seedy end of the market.

    A 6-month standard for rolling contracts seems a reasonable compromise, with the usual get-out that if you want to move and a new tenant appears, you don't have to pay to the end. I know someone on a current rolling contract - she is literally terrified and sees it as a sword of Damocles, forcing her to take any old place to get away from it.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.
    While some properties are let privately, my impression from renting in Germany was that most rentals are commercial lets by companies that own whole apartment blocks.
    Evil corporations?? Corbyanites won't like that.
    It seems to work well in Germany. Because the letting companies are professionals, repairs are generally performed in a timely and proper manner, and everything goes by the book. You do have to provide references and evidence of your ability to pay the rent, but once you are in you are generally left alone unless repairs are needed.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,590

    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
    Surely orange with heavy eyebrows?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,022
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
    What a horrible smear! We are diverse
    Not sure if scouring the press for cases of criminality committed by folk of Asian heritage is such a zinger of a rebuttal.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    Will they? That’s almost identical to the typically btler’s viewpoint that a property disappears into smoke as they sell it (no it’s bought by someone else who will rent it out or by someone who rented who will no longer need to rent somewhere)
    Being sure of being able to recover property is important to any landlord. There is a need to rent property on a short term basis (eg if you need to work or study in a town that's not in commuting distance) and so a market for rented property is important. Permanent tenure acts as a deterrent to any landlord. As RCS says, you finish up with the nastier landlords who intimidate their tenants to get them out (people like Rachman and Hoogstraten built their fortunes on the back of rent controlled- tenancies)
    I'm not convinced. Getting rid of s.21 would definitely not be the way I would handle, but:

    - some "good" landlords are put off by the reputation of the industry
    - we have plenty of unscrupulous landlords now, so question whether there would be more.
    - a culture of longer (!- I mean years rather than months in places like London) might actually make BTL investing more stable
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
    What a horrible smear! We are diverse
    Not sure if scouring the press for cases of criminality committed by folk of Asian heritage is such a zinger of a rebuttal.
    Ha I didn’t scour! It just was on my twitter feed this morning so came to mind when you inferred white Essex was bad

    Had I inferred BAME was bad in East London I’m sure you’d have found a white villain pretty quickly
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    As long as it isn't Michael Barrymore's pool.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Don't get me started on deposits. The government scheme have actually lost our tenant's deposit so I'm on the hook for that when she leaves (because the useless drug addled mother****ers are refusing to admit liability).
    don't you have a bank transfer as evidence?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,022
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Could a VONC by Labour succeed in the short term? The Tories have a nominal majority of 3 including the DUP. Would any Tory MPs be motivated to vote against their own party in a VONC (or abstain) before defecting to the Brexit Party?

    If so, then I foresee a VONC in May after the locals, a minority Labour government in July, a second referendum in October, and revoke before 31 October.

    No, firstly as the Tories are still likely to win the locals and secondly hardline ERGers will only VONC the government if Deal plus Customs Union passes the Commons by which time it would already be law anyway.

    If the Brexit Party wins the Euro elections, as is very possible, I also highly doubt MPs are going to vote for a second referendum or revoke
    Labour will win the Euro elections. But if the Brexit party does well, and I think it will, it may well tempt some extreme Tory Brexiteers to defect to it.
    His sister already has.
    They promised a load of celebrity candidates, so if Rees-Mogg's sister is the best they can do things can't be going that well.
    They seem to be swimming in the same pool as I'm a celebrity....
    The Only Way Is a White Essex.
    Surely orange with heavy eyebrows?
    I guess with Donald in charge, that look is now the supreme model for white supremacists everywhere. Mind you the Trump eyebrows are looking a bit etiolated, needs some work for full ubermenschness.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,807

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    I expect that the proportion will fall as tax changes make it less attractive to let out property, and you can't expect big capital gains any more. I think property prices will continue to go nowhere for years to come.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Sean_F said:

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    I expect that the proportion will fall as tax changes make it less attractive to let out property, and you can't expect big capital gains any more. I think property prices will continue to go nowhere for years to come.
    I do think a slowdown in London specifically has and will help renters.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Don't get me started on deposits. The government scheme have actually lost our tenant's deposit so I'm on the hook for that when she leaves (because the useless drug addled mother****ers are refusing to admit liability).
    don't you have a bank transfer as evidence?
    Unfortunately not, because I did not own the property at the time the tenant moved in and a lot of the paperwork at both ends has gone missing.

    The fact my mother had undiagnosed dementia for the last months of her life is some excuse for her. The fact the letting agents she used (before I sacked them) were extraordinarily incompetent is a fair defence for the tenant.

    I would pay good money to know what the government's excuse is for not even recognising their own receipt.

    At any rate, that's £900 I shall have to find somehow should my tenant give notice.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    Home ownership does not equal merit.
    Too many people in the UK are obsessed with home ownership because the house price inflation is so high. Property investment outstrips most other form of investment.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,807

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
    I'm th.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.
    While some properties are let privately, my impression from renting in Germany was that most rentals are commercial lets by companies that own whole apartment blocks.
    Evil corporations?? Corbyanites won't like that.
    If it's done on the same basis as commercial properties, ie security of tenure and compensation for improvements in return for paying open market rents, then I expect that quite a lot of institutional investors would find private rented property attractive.

    What killed the sector from 1965 to 1988 was security of tenure, combined with "fair" (ie unfair) rents.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    Sean_F said:

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    I expect that the proportion will fall as tax changes make it less attractive to let out property, and you can't expect big capital gains any more. I think property prices will continue to go nowhere for years to come.
    I agree that UK prices will probably flatline a bit below inflation over the next 4-6 years, probably with falls in the frothier parts of London, as the impact of recent changes play out.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of rentals, it is overlooked that a lot of people actually want to rent rather than buy. Making letting out less attractive will make that market more expensive and less efficient.

    That will benefit nice middle class young couples as property prices (already falling) fall further. I'm unconvinced it's particularly good for the country as a whole. The problem is less how properties are occupied as making sure that they are occupied.

    Exactly. Granddaughter One is on a short term employment contract, to progress in her career will mean going back to Uni, and that almost certainly won't be within reasonable daily travelling distance of where she's living and working at the moment. Add to that she hasn't got onto next September's course, so she may or may not be able to stay with her current, public, employers. All annual contracts.
    I'm th.

    But the basic issue is supply. Until we accept that decent rental homes should be an important sector of the market and not just a temporary step towards buying, we will always have a shortage.
    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.
    While some properties are let privately, my impression from renting in Germany was that most rentals are commercial lets by companies that own whole apartment blocks.
    Evil corporations?? Corbyanites won't like that.
    If it's done on the same basis as commercial properties, ie security of tenure and compensation for improvements in return for paying open market rents, then I expect that quite a lot of institutional investors would find private rented property attractive.

    What killed the sector from 1965 to 1988 was security of tenure, combined with "fair" (ie unfair) rents.
    I am not sure there is much of a comparison.

    Tenants of residential property are rarely in a position to agree five year terms or invest in the property the same way. Repair and dilapidations would also be different.

  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    edited April 2019
    eristdoof said:

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    Home ownership does not equal merit.
    Too many people in the UK are obsessed with home ownership because the house price inflation is so high. Property investment outstrips most other form of investment.
    If people get educated, work hard, live a typical lifestyle and end up with no capital, whilst others inherit multiple properties that is not a meritocracy. (Yes, if those same people could end up owning equivalent amount of shares, cash, other assets instead of housing, that would be fine but that is not what is happening.)
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    eristdoof said:

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    Home ownership does not equal merit.
    Too many people in the UK are obsessed with home ownership because the house price inflation is so high. Property investment outstrips most other form of investment.
    The main aim of home ownership is one day probably around the time you stop working you no longer have a huge monthly bill to pay for your accommodation.

    Getting a mortgage and eventually owning your own home is prudent financial planning.

    So no it doesn't equal merit but by buying your home you are sticking it to the capitalist man - who would be happy with your rental income indefinitely.



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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    Big announcement today from the Government that they are to consult on ending no fault section 21 evictions of private tenants by their landlord. Scotland and Wales are doing the same. This will provide tenants who pay their rent with more security (i.e. they can't just be chucked out on the street with barely 8 weeks notice) and further discourage buy to let - thus hopefully helping first time buyers in a meaningful way (i.e. less competition and cheaper house prices?).

    Clearly the Tories are slowly working out that the party of home ownership won't be a party of government much longer if most people rent!

    Of course the devil will be in the detail - landlords will still be able to evict if they can 'provide a good reason' (e.g. the property is up for sale).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory?CMP=share_btn_link

    People will just stop letting out property, if they cannot get it back at the end of the term.
    Will they? That’s almost identical to the typically btler’s viewpoint that a property disappears into smoke as they sell it (no it’s bought by someone else who will rent it out or by someone who rented who will no longer need to rent somewhere)
    Being sure of being able to recover property is important to any landlord. There is a need to rent property on a short term basis (eg if you need to work or study in a town that's not in commuting distance) and so a market for rented property is important. Permanent tenure acts as a deterrent to any landlord. As RCS says, you finish up with the nastier landlords who intimidate their tenants to get them out (people like Rachman and Hoogstraten built their fortunes on the back of rent controlled- tenancies)
    I'm not convinced. Getting rid of s.21 would definitely not be the way I would handle, but:

    - some "good" landlords are put off by the reputation of the industry
    - we have plenty of unscrupulous landlords now, so question whether there would be more.
    - a culture of longer (!- I mean years rather than months in places like London) might actually make BTL investing more stable
    The issue comes not from either security or price controls, but a combination of both

    * Fixed prices - leads to rapid turnover in tenants (as this is an opportunity to reset pricing)
    * Long security - leads to good tenants getting lower rents (certainty) and bad tenants higher rents (risk). Probably unintended consequences!
    * Combination - leads to no incentive for investment in the property so a decline in the quality of the housing stock and good landlords leaving the sector for reputational and return reasons
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Don't get me started on deposits. The government scheme have actually lost our tenant's deposit so I'm on the hook for that when she leaves (because the useless drug addled mother****ers are refusing to admit liability).
    don't you have a bank transfer as evidence?
    Unfortunately not, because I did not own the property at the time the tenant moved in and a lot of the paperwork at both ends has gone missing.

    The fact my mother had undiagnosed dementia for the last months of her life is some excuse for her. The fact the letting agents she used (before I sacked them) were extraordinarily incompetent is a fair defence for the tenant.

    I would pay good money to know what the government's excuse is for not even recognising their own receipt.

    At any rate, that's £900 I shall have to find somehow should my tenant give notice.
    And you can't get a bank statement showing you'd sent the money to the agent at least? You might have a claim against them
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,056
    edited April 2019

    Yes, London has a more extreme problem than other cities, and in some parts of the country things are fine. London and the South East is around a quarter of the population, add in the regional towns and cities where its a problem and you are probably up to 35-45% of the population live in places where the gap between earnings and house prices is too big.

    For young people that % will be higher as they naturally tend to live in cities, especially those where there are more and better jobs.

    From a political perspective it is the young people in those areas that have tended to switch to Conservative voters in their thirties and forties as they built up capital to conserve. That has stopped happening at anything like the same rate.
    I think that links in to what Sean Fear was saying yesterday about the more economically active areas trending leftwards while old mining areas (which have affordable housing) have moved rightwards.

    There's also this report:

    ' Middle-class families are seeing their incomes stagnating as they are squeezed by the ultra-rich taking a bigger slice, says an international report from the OECD economics think tank.

    The report says the middle classes are being "hollowed out", with declining chances of rising prosperity and growing fears of job insecurity.
    '

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47853444

    I have previously mentioned what I refer to as 'middle class regression' ie people with a middle class background and middle class education and employment who are not able to enjoy a middle class lifestyle, of which home ownership is traditionally a major aspect.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    The main aspects of renting that need sorting out in my opinion are:

    1) some reliable system of references (both ways); and
    2) the deposit system, which seems to work terribly for both honest landlords and honest tenants

    It's surprising that no equivalent of tripadvisor has really filled the niche for 1.

    Don't get me started on deposits. The government scheme have actually lost our tenant's deposit so I'm on the hook for that when she leaves (because the useless drug addled mother****ers are refusing to admit liability).
    don't you have a bank transfer as evidence?
    Unfortunately not, because I did not own the property at the time the tenant moved in and a lot of the paperwork at both ends has gone missing.

    The fact my mother had undiagnosed dementia for the last months of her life is some excuse for her. The fact the letting agents she used (before I sacked them) were extraordinarily incompetent is a fair defence for the tenant.

    I would pay good money to know what the government's excuse is for not even recognising their own receipt.

    At any rate, that's £900 I shall have to find somehow should my tenant give notice.
    And you can't get a bank statement showing you'd sent the money to the agent at least? You might have a claim against them
    Isn't ydoethur in danger of being unable to show that the deposit protection certificate was sent within the required time period, or at all?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326



    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.

    Mostly companies in my experience - owning lots of properties with real expertise in dealing with both practical and legal issues. I never encountered any problems of any kind over 20 years - if something went wrong, they fixed it swiftly, and as long as I paid my rent and didn't cause trouble they were happy for me to stay on forever. The rents were linked to the CPI so were also predictable. The issue of making me leave so they could live there themselves or sell simply didn't arise - of course the company didn't want to live there, and their business was letting, not sales.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,256
    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    To be honest some ability to improve the property would also be welcome. Almost all tenancy contracts I have seen are amazingly restrictive - no pets (in Germany I believe such contracts are illegal), no decoration, not even able to put picture hooks into walls.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Incidentally one factor which is overlooked has been the rise in "guaranteed rent" arrangements which hand the benefit of bullying tenants to 'agent landlords' with little to no capital invested.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    "The issue comes not from either security or price controls, but a combination of both

    * Fixed prices - leads to rapid turnover in tenants (as this is an opportunity to reset pricing)
    * Long security - leads to good tenants getting lower rents (certainty) and bad tenants higher rents (risk). Probably unintended consequences!
    * Combination - leads to no incentive for investment in the property so a decline in the quality of the housing stock and good landlords leaving the sector for reputational and return reasons"

    Presumably all this can be managed? Outside of fixed terms, 4-6 month notice period for landlords to tenants as suggested below, 1-2 months notice for tenants, cap on annual increases on rents at RPI+5% would not be particularly onerous?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    IanB2 said:

    matt said:

    H

    IanB2 said:

    Having rented for a short period a few years back, I think the government proposals are very welcome. That's assuming they actually get round to doing anything afterwards, and this isn't another consultation that goes nowhere. If you've been a good tenant and looked after a property it is shocking to get a letter out of the blue giving you just a few weeks to move house, and as others have said it doesnt work this way in most of Europe.

    Perhaps, but equally tenants here, for example, expect a kitchen to be provided. That’s not the expectation in Germany. Off to IKEA you go.
    To be honest some ability to improve the property would also be welcome. Almost all tenancy contracts I have seen are amazingly restrictive - no pets (in Germany I believe such contracts are illegal), no decoration, not even able to put picture hooks into walls.
    It's difficult to half and half it.

    Either it makes sense for you have the right and obligation to maintain or improve, or neither.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708

    Incidentally one factor which is overlooked has been the rise in "guaranteed rent" arrangements which hand the benefit of bullying tenants to 'agent landlords' with little to no capital invested.

    Yes, these generally end up being bad to disastrous for one or both of the tenant/landlord whilst the middleman makes hay at their expense. Avoid.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    "The issue comes not from either security or price controls, but a combination of both

    * Fixed prices - leads to rapid turnover in tenants (as this is an opportunity to reset pricing)
    * Long security - leads to good tenants getting lower rents (certainty) and bad tenants higher rents (risk). Probably unintended consequences!
    * Combination - leads to no incentive for investment in the property so a decline in the quality of the housing stock and good landlords leaving the sector for reputational and return reasons"

    Presumably all this can be managed? Outside of fixed terms, 4-6 month notice period for landlords to tenants as suggested below, 1-2 months notice for tenants, cap on annual increases on rents at RPI+5% would not be particularly onerous?

    We have a fair rent price control, which is tied to market rents, in section 13 of the Housing Act. I suspect we will be hearing a lot more about it if s.21 is abolished.

    As to the notice, you could extend the notice period - or you could change the first time it can be served. I prefer the latter. Two months is enough to move home, so the notice does its job - if the intention is to extend the minimum term of tenancies, we should do that directly.

  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    edited April 2019


    I'm interested as to who owns all these rental properties on the continent? Buy to let people? Families with some inherited wealth? Housing associates?

    A big part of the resentment around rental in UK is that it is seen, rightly or wrongly, that many of the landlords are middle class dinner party types who have used it as an extra pension planning strategy.

    While some properties are let privately, my impression from renting in Germany was that most rentals are professional lets by companies that own whole apartment blocks.
    Yes the landlords are mainly companies. In the last few decades the states have been selling their state owned social housing to private companies but with very strict rules about rent and contract conditions. Buying property to let is seen as a long term investment and you have to be prepared to be fair to the tenants and look after the property. In the cities each building is a block of many flats (from 8 to 50 flats), so a typical middle class family cannot afford to buy a whole building to let out.

    There are many people who buy a flat/house, but buying is a beaurocratic hassle and moving between owner occupied flats/houses is rare other than just after retiring.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,807

    Yes, London has a more extreme problem than other cities, and in some parts of the country things are fine. London and the South East is around a quarter of the population, add in the regional towns and cities where its a problem and you are probably up to 35-45% of the population live in places where the gap between earnings and house prices is too big.

    For young people that % will be higher as they naturally tend to live in cities, especially those where there are more and better jobs.

    From a political perspective it is the young people in those areas that have tended to switch to Conservative voters in their thirties and forties as they built up capital to conserve. That has stopped happening at anything like the same rate.
    I think that links in to what Sean Fear was saying yesterday about the more economically active areas trending leftwards while old mining areas (which have affordable housing) have moved rightwards.

    There's also this report:

    ' Middle-class families are seeing their incomes stagnating as they are squeezed by the ultra-rich taking a bigger slice, says an international report from the OECD economics think tank.

    The report says the middle classes are being "hollowed out", with declining chances of rising prosperity and growing fears of job insecurity.
    '

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47853444

    I have previously mentioned what I refer to as 'middle class regression' ie people with a middle class background and middle class education and employment who are not able to enjoy a middle class lifestyle, of which home ownership is traditionally a major aspect.
    It's a paradox that it's much easier to enjoy a middle class lifestyle in Mansfield than in Palmers Green.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    TGOHF said:

    eristdoof said:

    Of course there is a demand and need for a private rental sector. It used to be about 10% of households, already it is over 20% and as more and more people use cheap credit to buy property for their pension it will keep expanding. Returning to something closer to 10% of households would be a good thing for the country, these proposals won't do anything like that, but will probably slow the increase above 20% down a bit.

    The comments minimising the problem show why there is increasing resentment and division between various generations.

    If people cannot expect to own homes on typical salaries how can the country expect to remain a meritocracy? We will end deserving whatever horrors Corbyn brings us if we can't even see the problem here.

    Home ownership does not equal merit.
    Too many people in the UK are obsessed with home ownership because the house price inflation is so high. Property investment outstrips most other form of investment.
    The main aim of home ownership is one day probably around the time you stop working you no longer have a huge monthly bill to pay for your accommodation.

    Getting a mortgage and eventually owning your own home is prudent financial planning.

    So no it doesn't equal merit but by buying your home you are sticking it to the capitalist man - who would be happy with your rental income indefinitely.



    I agree that this is true in the UK. But that is because the economy is weighted so much in favour of owner occupiers. The balance is much more nuanced in other countries.
This discussion has been closed.