politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

On this day two years ago ComRes was just finalising its poll for the S Mirror and the Independent. These were the published figuresCON 50%LAB 25%LD 11%UKIP 7%SNP 4%GRN 3%

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

First....unlike the Tories.

Cyclefree

Hubris ..... then nemesis.

williamglenn

“Britain is leaving the European Union, and there can be no turning back.”

https://youtu.be/4xr9-CkZZRk

Morris_Dancer

Whoever would've guessed running the worst manifesto in modern history and abandoning the whole economic prospectus might turn out badly?

isam

A very good reason to think twice before betting based on opinion polls covering hypothetical events

Theuniondivvie

Cyclefree said:

Hubris ..... then nemesis.

Except 2 years later Tessy is still outrunning nemesis and unaccountaby that ***k Timothy appears to be someone who still gets paid for his views.

Foxy

isam said:

A very good reason to think twice before betting based on opinion polls covering hypothetical events

I think at that point a GE was no longer hypothetical.

Studying polls for political bettors is like studying form for the horses, helpful but unreliable. That is the nature of gambling.

Stark_Dawning

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

tlg86

Theuniondivvie said:

Cyclefree said:

Hubris ..... then nemesis.

Except 2 years later Tessy is still outrunning nemesis and that ***k Timothy appears to still be someone who gets paid for his views.

It's almost as though the Tories won the election.

Jonathan

Arrogant Fools.

isam

Foxy said:

isam said:

A very good reason to think twice before betting based on opinion polls covering hypothetical events

I think at that point a GE was no longer hypothetical.

Studying polls for political bettors is like studying form for the horses, helpful but unreliable. That is the nature of gambling.

Jesus

I think I’ll have to start saying what I don’t think, just to see you disagree!

If a doctor gave me advice on health, I’d accept they probably knew more than me

Foxy

Theuniondivvie said:

Cyclefree said:

Hubris ..... then nemesis.

Except 2 years later Tessy is still outrunning nemesis and unaccountaby that ***k Timothy appears to be someone who still gets paid for his views.

I think that she can feel that hot breath of nemesis on her neck as she runs through those Welsh wheatfields.

FrancisUrquhart

The Orange One is in a good mood today....

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1119207303700471809

anothernick

That moment was also peak Brexit. Few people would have bet on it not happening when May called the election. But then she lost her majority and ever since then Brexit has got more and more problematic and now the chances are it will never happen.

Theuniondivvie

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Orange One is in a good mood today....

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1119207303700471809

Wasn't he saying that the Mueller report completely exonerated him a few days ago?

Crazy report, crazy guy.

IanB2

That moment was of course Peak Tory. Quite possibly for our lifetime.

logical_song

anothernick said:

That moment was also peak Brexit. Few people would have bet on it not happening when May called the election. But then she lost her majority and ever since then Brexit has got more and more problematic and now the chances are it will never happen.

In 2017 the British people did their best to block the Tories (as the de facto Brexit party, before Nigel's) - and almost succeeded.

isam

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

AndreaParma_82

Running totals of MEPs standing down

Labour

Linda McAvan (born 1962; served 1998-2019)
Mary Honeyball (1952, 2000-19)
Derek Vaughan (1961; 2009-19)
Lucy Anderson (??, 2014-19)

SNP

Ian Hudghton (1951; 1998-2019)

Conservatives

Jacqueline Foster (1947; 1999-04, 2009-19)
David Campbell Bannerman (1960; 2009-19)
Kay Swinburne (1967; 2009-19)

Greens

Jean Lambert (1950; 1999-2019)

UUP

Jim Nicholson (1945; 1989-2019)

For those elected as UKIP in 2014, I guess we should wait for the list of Brexit party to understand how many not in UKIP lists will end up there.
Same for the 2 former Conservative MEPs who joined ChangeUK.

Conservative MEPs retirements may raise once the final lists will be published.

kinabalu

She is radiating something in that photo but one cannot be certain what it is and it is pointless speculating.

Worst PM ever? No. Not for me. Not yet anyway. Needs to accidentally deliver a No Deal Brexit in order to secure that title. Still possible, but looking quite a tall order now.

Sean_F

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Floater

Morris_Dancer said:

Whoever would've guessed running the worst manifesto in modern history and abandoning the whole economic prospectus might turn out badly?

That colossus May couldn't for a start.

isam

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

JC on the blower to him surely?

IanB2

Floater said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Whoever would've guessed running the worst manifesto in modern history and abandoning the whole economic prospectus might turn out badly?

That colossus May couldn't for a start.

Please try to keep up! The widely accepted theory on ConHome is that, as a closet remainer, Mrs May cunningly sabotaged her own re-election so as to ensure that a "pure" Brexit could never be delivered.

rcs1000

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Emma Thompson deserves all the stick she's getting. She's no better than the Brexit backers who live on the Costas and in French mansions, and the Tories who hang out with white supremacists while condemning Jeremy Corbyn for anti-Semitism.

Or the centrists who moderately bomb the Middle East

Not sure how many centrists do that. But if they say they are opposed to it but then do it clearly they deserve stick.

Blair, Cameron, Obama?

Just to get this right, are you saying that it's OK when non-centrists bomb the Middle East, and that it's only specifically wrong when centrists do it?

Or are you saying that Bush and Trump (and Bush Sr, and Reagan), who also bombed the Middle East are actually centrists too?

Or are you simply making the point that it's always wrong to bomb the Middle East?

Peter_the_Punter

Foxy said:

isam said:

A very good reason to think twice before betting based on opinion polls covering hypothetical events

I think at that point a GE was no longer hypothetical.

Studying polls for political bettors is like studying form for the horses, helpful but unreliable. That is the nature of gambling.

Yes, and of course the act of calling the election itself impacts events.

It was an unnecessary election, called for Party advantage. The interests of the Country were not taken into account. Voters do not like unnecessary elections, especially when they've been assured there will not be one.

The dishonesty and waste of public time and money would not have been decisive factors, but they certainly didn't help.

RobD

50% share... good times.

Alistair

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

Richard_Tyndall

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Emma Thompson deserves all the stick she's getting. She's no better than the Brexit backers who live on the Costas and in French mansions, and the Tories who hang out with white supremacists while condemning Jeremy Corbyn for anti-Semitism.

Or the centrists who moderately bomb the Middle East

Not sure how many centrists do that. But if they say they are opposed to it but then do it clearly they deserve stick.

Blair, Cameron, Obama?

Just to get this right, are you saying that it's OK when non-centrists bomb the Middle East, and that it's only specifically wrong when centrists do it?

Or are you saying that Bush and Trump (and Bush Sr, and Reagan), who also bombed the Middle East are actually centrists too?

Or are you simply making the point that it's always wrong to bomb the Middle East?

The last seems to me to be the only reasonable position to take.

Peter_the_Punter

kinabalu said:

She is radiating something in that photo but one cannot be certain what it is and it is pointless speculating.

Worst PM ever? No. Not for me. Not yet anyway. Needs to accidentally deliver a No Deal Brexit in order to secure that title. Still possible, but looking quite a tall order now.

She will deliver a No Deal Brexit only by accident. It could happen, but I suspect that if it came down to the wire and there were no options left but No Deal and Revoke, she'd scribble a quick note to the EU withdrawing us from Article 50.

As long as she doesn't hand the note to Grayling......

NickPalmer

Interesting 3 hours on the doorstep this afternoon (and no, people don't mind being canvassed at Easter) in deepest Surrey. I think the LibDems are going to do well - I'm used to their voters showing up as don't knows till the last minute, but there's some definite enthusiasm out there. Labour's core vote seems solid but not especially enthusiastic - it's mostly about fighting the Tories. The Tory vote is crumbling at the edges - unusual number of former Tory voters going out of their way to say they wouldn't ever vote Labour but definitely not Tory any more either - even met some Brexiteers voting LibDem ias an anti-big party protest. But the Tories too have a core vote which is loyal - I don't expect a real metldown.

viewcode

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Has anybody in his entire life took Andrew Adonis into a quiet room, sat him down, and told him very politely that he is not very clever and should stop talking? Because he sorely needs it.

isam

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Emma Thompson deserves all the stick she's getting. She's no better than the Brexit backers who live on the Costas and in French mansions, and the Tories who hang out with white supremacists while condemning Jeremy Corbyn for anti-Semitism.

Or the centrists who moderately bomb the Middle East

Not sure how many centrists do that. But if they say they are opposed to it but then do it clearly they deserve stick.

Blair, Cameron, Obama?

Just to get this right, are you saying that it's OK when non-centrists bomb the Middle East, and that it's only specifically wrong when centrists do it?

Or are you saying that Bush and Trump (and Bush Sr, and Reagan), who also bombed the Middle East are actually centrists too?

Or are you simply making the point that it's always wrong to bomb the Middle East?

I said it because I think repeatedly trying to smear people with guilt by tenuous association, and never being able to admit anyone on your side has done anything wrong without some whataboutery, is SAD

nico67

IanB2 said:

Floater said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Whoever would've guessed running the worst manifesto in modern history and abandoning the whole economic prospectus might turn out badly?

That colossus May couldn't for a start.

Please try to keep up! The widely accepted theory on ConHome is that, as a closet remainer, Mrs May cunningly sabotaged her own re-election so as to ensure that a "pure" Brexit could never be delivered.

Con Home is full of unhinged Tories . Paranoia and conspiracy theories abound .

stodge

NickPalmer said:

Interesting 3 hours on the doorstep this afternoon (and no, people don't mind being canvassed at Easter) in deepest Surrey. I think the LibDems are going to do well - I'm used to their voters showing up as don't knows till the last minute, but there's some definite enthusiasm out there. Labour's core vote seems solid but not especially enthusiastic - it's mostly about fighting the Tories. The Tory vote is crumbling at the edges - unusual number of former Tory voters going out of their way to say they wouldn't ever vote Labour but definitely not Tory any more either - even met some Brexiteers voting LibDem ias an anti-big party protest. But the Tories too have a core vote which is loyal - I don't expect a real metldown.

Nick, the vote shares were according to the Waverley DC website:

https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=14&RPID=8944640

60% Conservative share on a GE day but in 2011 the Conservatives polled nearly two thirds of the vote and won 53 of the 57 seats. Could we see the Conservative vote sub 50% or even lower? Fascinating times.

nunuone

How on earth is she still PM?

Oh wait her potential successors...

No_Offence_Alan

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Remain voters shouldn't vote Labour either.
They have twice whipped for "soft Brexit" in the HoC.

Peter_the_Punter

Alistair said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

Going purely from memory, I thought the manifesto merely accelerated a trend and then other factors kicked in (e.g. a strong performance from Corbyn and May's refusal to debate) to keep the momentum going.

geoffw

When Lord Adonis says "If you are a Brexiter don't vote Labour" does he want to stop bad people voting Labour so as to keep it pure, or is he offering unsolicited advice to Brexiters not to waste their vote?

Peter_the_Punter

No_Offence_Alan said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Remain voters shouldn't vote Labour either.
They have twice whipped for "soft Brexit" in the HoC.

Yes, if you are really Remain, you should certainly be weighing up the alternatives. Of course under FPTP one may have to hazard a guess as to where one's vote is likely to score most heavily. That's certainly what I would do. There's also the possibility that Corbyn will bite the bullet and swing wholeheartedly (or utterly cynically!) behind a second referendum, or even Revoke. One might then wish to reward him with an equally cynical vote, but it all depends.

The MP in my former constintuency, John Cryer, supported Brexit and so he went without my valuable support last time, and he wouldn't get it next time either were I still in Wonderful Wanstead.

My MP is now Laurence Robertson, who is towards the more demented end of the ERG Group. Makes my task very easy.

brendan16

geoffw said:

When Lord Adonis says "If you are a Brexiter don't vote Labour" does he want to stop bad people voting Labour so as to keep it pure, or is he offering unsolicited advice to Brexiters not to waste their vote?

When he misses out on the sixth seat in the south west region to the Brexit party I am sure there will be some element of schadenfreude in some quarters.

Shame he never stuck to sorting out big transport infrastructure projects as he was very good at that.

isam

geoffw said:

When Lord Adonis says "If you are a Brexiter don't vote Labour" does he want to stop bad people voting Labour so as to keep it pure, or is he offering unsolicited advice to Brexiters not to waste their vote?

The former, but it might work better if his leader wasn’t one

geoffw

brendan16 said:

geoffw said:

When Lord Adonis says "If you are a Brexiter don't vote Labour" does he want to stop bad people voting Labour so as to keep it pure, or is he offering unsolicited advice to Brexiters not to waste their vote?

When he misses out on the sixth seat in the south west region to the Brexit party I am sure there will be some element of schadenfreude in some quarters.

Shame he never stuck to sorting out big transport infrastructure projects as he was very good at that.

Ah so, being a Labour candidate he only wants to be elected to the European Parliament by true believers (in Europe).

tlg86

Peter_the_Punter said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Remain voters shouldn't vote Labour either.
They have twice whipped for "soft Brexit" in the HoC.

Yes, if you are really Remain, you should certainly be weighing up the alternatives. Of course under FPTP one may have to hazard a guess as to where one's vote is likely to score most heavily. That's certainly what I would do. There's also the possibility that Corbyn will bite the bullet and swing wholeheartedly (or utterly cynically!) behind a second referendum, or even Revoke. One might then wish to reward him with an equally cynical vote, but it all depends.

The MP in my former constintuency, John Cryer, supported Brexit and so he went without my valuable support last time, and he wouldn't get it next time either were I still in Wonderful Wanstead.

My MP is now Laurence Robertson, who is towards the more demented end of the ERG Group. Makes my task very easy.

Vote Tory to stop Brexit?

Peter_the_Punter

tlg86 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Remain voters shouldn't vote Labour either.
They have twice whipped for "soft Brexit" in the HoC.

Yes, if you are really Remain, you should certainly be weighing up the alternatives. Of course under FPTP one may have to hazard a guess as to where one's vote is likely to score most heavily. That's certainly what I would do. There's also the possibility that Corbyn will bite the bullet and swing wholeheartedly (or utterly cynically!) behind a second referendum, or even Revoke. One might then wish to reward him with an equally cynical vote, but it all depends.

The MP in my former constintuency, John Cryer, supported Brexit and so he went without my valuable support last time, and he wouldn't get it next time either were I still in Wonderful Wanstead.

My MP is now Laurence Robertson, who is towards the more demented end of the ERG Group. Makes my task very easy.

Vote Tory to stop Brexit?

brendan16

AndreaParma_82 said:

Running totals of MEPs standing down

Labour

Linda McAvan (born 1962; served 1998-2019)
Mary Honeyball (1952, 2000-19)
Derek Vaughan (1961; 2009-19)
Lucy Anderson (??, 2014-19)

SNP

Ian Hudghton (1951; 1998-2019)

Conservatives

Jacqueline Foster (1947; 1999-04, 2009-19)
David Campbell Bannerman (1960; 2009-19)
Kay Swinburne (1967; 2009-19)

Greens

Jean Lambert (1950; 1999-2019)

UUP

Jim Nicholson (1945; 1989-2019)

For those elected as UKIP in 2014, I guess we should wait for the list of Brexit party to understand how many not in UKIP lists will end up there.
Same for the 2 former Conservative MEPs who joined ChangeUK.

Conservative MEPs retirements may raise once the final lists will be published.

Will be interesting to see the Tory, ChUK and Brexit party lists next week. Will they have any Adonis style ‘celebs’ on their lists?

Three female MEPs quit UKIP last week after Batten refused to put them on the UKIP list - not sure if Farage will give them a go?

It’s quite a nice earner with little generally scrutiny for perhaps five years. And the pension is excellent let alone the expenses.

geoffw

tlg86 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Remain voters shouldn't vote Labour either.
They have twice whipped for "soft Brexit" in the HoC.

Yes, if you are really Remain, you should certainly be weighing up the alternatives. Of course under FPTP one may have to hazard a guess as to where one's vote is likely to score most heavily. That's certainly what I would do. There's also the possibility that Corbyn will bite the bullet and swing wholeheartedly (or utterly cynically!) behind a second referendum, or even Revoke. One might then wish to reward him with an equally cynical vote, but it all depends.

The MP in my former constintuency, John Cryer, supported Brexit and so he went without my valuable support last time, and he wouldn't get it next time either were I still in Wonderful Wanstead.

My MP is now Laurence Robertson, who is towards the more demented end of the ERG Group. Makes my task very easy.

Vote Tory to stop Brexit?

Or vote Brexit to stop Tories.

HYUFD

Of course had May won a comfortable Tory majority in 2017 we would have left the EU by now, as there would have been a majority in the Commons for her Deal or even leaving with No Deal

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

Interesting 3 hours on the doorstep this afternoon (and no, people don't mind being canvassed at Easter) in deepest Surrey. I think the LibDems are going to do well - I'm used to their voters showing up as don't knows till the last minute, but there's some definite enthusiasm out there. Labour's core vote seems solid but not especially enthusiastic - it's mostly about fighting the Tories. The Tory vote is crumbling at the edges - unusual number of former Tory voters going out of their way to say they wouldn't ever vote Labour but definitely not Tory any more either - even met some Brexiteers voting LibDem ias an anti-big party protest. But the Tories too have a core vote which is loyal - I don't expect a real metldown.

I expect the LDs and Independents to be the biggest gainers in the local elections and broadly agree with that based on my own canvassing returns, UKIP will do well where they stand as will the Brexit Party but the biggest gains for the latter will come in the European elections

Peter_the_Punter

HYUFD said:

Of course had May won a comfortable Tory majority in 2017 we would have left the EU by now, as there would have been a majority in the Commons for her Deal or even leaving with No Deal

Lucky escape, wasn't it.

Sean_F

viewcode said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Has anybody in his entire life took Andrew Adonis into a quiet room, sat him down, and told him very politely that he is not very clever and should stop talking? Because he sorely needs it.

It's rather like Barry Goldwater's speech accepting the Republican nomination, when he told liberal Republicans "We don't want your votes"

So, they took him at his word.

ydoethur

viewcode said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Has anybody in his entire life took Andrew Adonis into a quiet room, sat him down, and told him very politely that he is not very clever and should stop talking? Because he sorely needs it.

Yes, very frequently. When he was at education. He was a bit like a less energetic version of Gove and a balder version of Cummings. Teachers duly hated him.

And of course, as they were teachers, he duly ignored them, like every politician save Jim McGregor, Estelle Morris and Justine Greening.

Recidivist

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

Of course had May won a comfortable Tory majority in 2017 we would have left the EU by now, as there would have been a majority in the Commons for her Deal or even leaving with No Deal

Lucky escape, wasn't it.

It sure was.

JackJack

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

People don't have to read the manifesto to be put off by news reports of what is in it. Anyone that knocked on doors could tell you the so-called dementia tax was killer for us.

Pulpstar

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

HYUFD

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

Of course had May won a comfortable Tory majority in 2017 we would have left the EU by now, as there would have been a majority in the Commons for her Deal or even leaving with No Deal

Lucky escape, wasn't it.

For Remainers maybe, I think if we do Brexit and the Withdrawal Agreement passes the chances are it will be softer Brexit than May originally intended in the Political Declaration (although hard Brexiteers will try to change that)

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1119303322878533634?s=21

Peter_the_Punter

HYUFD said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

Of course had May won a comfortable Tory majority in 2017 we would have left the EU by now, as there would have been a majority in the Commons for her Deal or even leaving with No Deal

Lucky escape, wasn't it.

For Remainers maybe, I think if we do Brexit and the Withdrawal Agreement passes the chances are it will be softer Brexit than May originally intended in the Political Declaration (although hard Brexiteers will try to change that)

I actually had the Country in mind, but yes, that would nclude Remainers.

Alistair

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alistair said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

Going purely from memory, I thought the manifesto merely accelerated a trend and then other factors kicked in (e.g. a strong performance from Corbyn and May's refusal to debate) to keep the momentum going.

I'll dig out my polling averages chart I did at the time but my memory is that whilst Labour started gaining suppprt during their manifesto week it was at the expense of squeezing lesser parties. The Con collapse is timed perfectly with the manifesto launch, there was no decline prior to it.

Nigelb

viewcode said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Has anybody in his entire life took Andrew Adonis into a quiet room, sat him down, and told him very politely that he is not very clever and should stop talking? Because he sorely needs it.

With Adonis, the only thing which might have worked would have been taking him in to a quiet room, sitting him down, and securely locking the door behind you as you quietly leave.

Benpointer

brendan16 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Running totals of MEPs standing down

Labour

Linda McAvan (born 1962; served 1998-2019)
Mary Honeyball (1952, 2000-19)
Derek Vaughan (1961; 2009-19)
Lucy Anderson (??, 2014-19)

SNP

Ian Hudghton (1951; 1998-2019)

Conservatives

Jacqueline Foster (1947; 1999-04, 2009-19)
David Campbell Bannerman (1960; 2009-19)
Kay Swinburne (1967; 2009-19)

Greens

Jean Lambert (1950; 1999-2019)

UUP

Jim Nicholson (1945; 1989-2019)

For those elected as UKIP in 2014, I guess we should wait for the list of Brexit party to understand how many not in UKIP lists will end up there.
Same for the 2 former Conservative MEPs who joined ChangeUK.

Conservative MEPs retirements may raise once the final lists will be published.

Will be interesting to see the Tory, ChUK and Brexit party lists next week. Will they have any Adonis style ‘celebs’ on their lists?

Three female MEPs quit UKIP last week after Batten refused to put them on the UKIP list - not sure if Farage will give them a go?

It’s quite a nice earner with little generally scrutiny for perhaps five years. And the pension is excellent let alone the expenses.

Ex-Kipper MEPs will hope it's 5 months, not 5 years :

JosiasJessop

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

That's an interesting one: as a rail enthusiast I didn't mind Adonis, and he wasn't anti-roads either.

That's the problem with the DfT: it's remit is so wide. You really don't want someone who is (say) a rail enthusiast, a bus enthusiast, or a coach enthusiast and who will favour that mode over the others: you need someone who can make an integrated transport system that will meet the country's needs.

Someone like Christian Wolmar, however much he loves rail and transport, would be a disaster.

kyf_100

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

That's an interesting one: as a rail enthusiast I didn't mind Adonis, and he wasn't anti-roads either.

That's the problem with the DfT: it's remit is so wide. You really don't want someone who is (say) a rail enthusiast, a bus enthusiast, or a coach enthusiast and who will favour that mode over the others: you need someone who can make an integrated transport system that will meet the country's needs.

Someone like Christian Wolmar, however much he loves rail and transport, would be a disaster.

A transport supremo...

anothernick

No_Offence_Alan said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1119252586475999233?s=21

"Don't vote for my party" is an interesting approach, but he is correct that Brexit supporters should not vote Labour.

Remain voters shouldn't vote Labour either.
They have twice whipped for "soft Brexit" in the HoC.

Well I agree that Labours position has been somewhat equivocal. But Brexit will not be stopped by the Lib Dems, still less by TIG. Labour is the only force capable of preventing it. And by their united opposition to Mays deal they have done a pretty good job of preventing it so far.

Andrew

Alistair said:

I'll dig out my polling averages chart I did at the time but my memory is that whilst Labour started gaining suppprt during their manifesto week it was at the expense of squeezing lesser parties. The Con collapse is timed perfectly with the manifesto launch, there was no decline prior to it.

Yep. Pre-manifesto they were at 47.3%, immediately nosedived. Nice graphs at .....

http://britainelects.com/

isam

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

Sean_F

Alistair said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alistair said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

Going purely from memory, I thought the manifesto merely accelerated a trend and then other factors kicked in (e.g. a strong performance from Corbyn and May's refusal to debate) to keep the momentum going.

I'll dig out my polling averages chart I did at the time but my memory is that whilst Labour started gaining suppprt during their manifesto week it was at the expense of squeezing lesser parties. The Con collapse is timed perfectly with the manifesto launch, there was no decline prior to it.

The 50/25 lead was froth.

You're right that Labour gained ground from other parties, and non-voters. Tory support never really collapsed, it just edged down, as Labour kept on gaining.

Gardenwalker

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

isam

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

Like Nige has with Batten and Robbo!

williamglenn

isam said:

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

Like Nige has with Batten and Robbo!

Which policies attract you to the Brexit Party?

isam

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

Like Nige has with Batten and Robbo!

Which policies attract you to the Brexit Party?

I’d like the big parties to fall, and I want us to leave the EU.

Would love to debate all night, but I’m going out with my pals for a beer now. 🍻

RobD

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

Like Nige has with Batten and Robbo!

Which policies attract you to the Brexit Party?

Let me think for a second. Brexit.

Wulfrun_Phil

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

If you mean better at wasting £100,000,000,000+ on political vanity projects, then yes.

AndyJS

Derbyshire Conservatives say they won't take part in the Euro elections.

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/barry-lewis-we-derbyshire-conservatives-will-take-no-part-in-european-elections-that-should-not-be-taking-place.html

JosiasJessop

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

If you mean better at wasting £100,000,000,000+ on political vanity projects, then yes.

He's certainly not as good as you are at picking figures out of your backside!

AndyJS

NickPalmer said:

Interesting 3 hours on the doorstep this afternoon (and no, people don't mind being canvassed at Easter) in deepest Surrey. I think the LibDems are going to do well - I'm used to their voters showing up as don't knows till the last minute, but there's some definite enthusiasm out there. Labour's core vote seems solid but not especially enthusiastic - it's mostly about fighting the Tories. The Tory vote is crumbling at the edges - unusual number of former Tory voters going out of their way to say they wouldn't ever vote Labour but definitely not Tory any more either - even met some Brexiteers voting LibDem ias an anti-big party protest. But the Tories too have a core vote which is loyal - I don't expect a real metldown.

Interesting as far as Surrey is concerned, but I don't expect the situation there to be a particularly good guide to what happens in the rest of the country on this occasion.

houndtang

brendan16 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Running totals of MEPs standing down

Labour

Linda McAvan (born 1962; served 1998-2019)
Mary Honeyball (1952, 2000-19)
Derek Vaughan (1961; 2009-19)
Lucy Anderson (??, 2014-19)

SNP

Ian Hudghton (1951; 1998-2019)

Conservatives

Jacqueline Foster (1947; 1999-04, 2009-19)
David Campbell Bannerman (1960; 2009-19)
Kay Swinburne (1967; 2009-19)

Greens

Jean Lambert (1950; 1999-2019)

UUP

Jim Nicholson (1945; 1989-2019)

For those elected as UKIP in 2014, I guess we should wait for the list of Brexit party to understand how many not in UKIP lists will end up there.
Same for the 2 former Conservative MEPs who joined ChangeUK.

Conservative MEPs retirements may raise once the final lists will be published.

Will be interesting to see the Tory, ChUK and Brexit party lists next week. Will they have any Adonis style ‘celebs’ on their lists?

Three female MEPs quit UKIP last week after Batten refused to put them on the UKIP list - not sure if Farage will give them a go?

It’s quite a nice earner with little generally scrutiny for perhaps five years. And the pension is excellent let alone the expenses.

Surely some or many of them would have had new jobs already lined up? Unless they were very confident Brexit was going to be postponed/cancelled

Alistair

Sean_F said:

Alistair said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alistair said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

Going purely from memory, I thought the manifesto merely accelerated a trend and then other factors kicked in (e.g. a strong performance from Corbyn and May's refusal to debate) to keep the momentum going.

I'll dig out my polling averages chart I did at the time but my memory is that whilst Labour started gaining suppprt during their manifesto week it was at the expense of squeezing lesser parties. The Con collapse is timed perfectly with the manifesto launch, there was no decline prior to it.

The 50/25 lead was froth.

You're right that Labour gained ground from other parties, and non-voters. Tory support never really collapsed, it just edged down, as Labour kept on gaining.

The Con polling average was rock solid pre-manifesto then nosedived post manifesto and finally slowly drifted down to the finishine.

houndtang

Andrew said:

Alistair said:

I'll dig out my polling averages chart I did at the time but my memory is that whilst Labour started gaining suppprt during their manifesto week it was at the expense of squeezing lesser parties. The Con collapse is timed perfectly with the manifesto launch, there was no decline prior to it.

Yep. Pre-manifesto they were at 47.3%, immediately nosedived. Nice graphs at .....

http://britainelects.com/

I remember being in the bath and hearing May on TV saying ''nothing has changed, nothing has changed' and thinking 'oh oh'

MarqueeMark

Alistair said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

The pollling nosedived once May - who said she would not call a snap election - called a snap election.

RobD

MarqueeMark said:

Alistair said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Whatever those polls were reporting it surely wasn't voting intention. I refuse to believe that a) Theresa was ever that popular and b) such popularity could have been wiped out by a manifesto that no one read.

Bit of a coincidence that their polling nose dived at exactly the same time the manifesto came out.

The pollling nosedived once May - who said she would not call a snap election - called a snap election.

Na, it went up after the election was called.

Wulfrun_Phil

JosiasJessop said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

If you mean better at wasting £100,000,000,000+ on political vanity projects, then yes.

He's certainly not as good as you are at picking figures out of your backside!

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/transport/2019/04/19/hs2-could-end-up-costing-more-than-156-billion/

Andrew

RobD said:

Na, it went up after the election was called.

Yep. Election was called on 18/april, Tories were on 42.4% in the polls that day, according to britainelects.

They shot up approx 5 points immediately, but in the campaign that disappeared and they ended up with ..... exactly 42.4% of the vote :-)

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1119331296470237185

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1119333109890203650

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1119333109890203650

As long as they upped the 15% threshold to 25% or 30% within the 12 month speriod, that would be a sufficient change to justify revisiting the PM's security.

JosiasJessop

Wulfrun_Phil said:

JosiasJessop said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

If you mean better at wasting £100,000,000,000+ on political vanity projects, then yes.

He's certainly not as good as you are at picking figures out of your backside!

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/transport/2019/04/19/hs2-could-end-up-costing-more-than-156-billion/

If you read that link, you can see how the figures are (ahem) creative.

I'm waiting for the first person to claim it will cost one trillion.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/MarisaKabas/status/1119335247550795776

Richard_Tyndall

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

"Fruitcakes and Loons". Yep I agree. That is probably a reasonable description of the Labour Party.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1119336365295116288

Floater

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

When will you throw out the anti semites and conspiracy theorists then?

nico67

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1119333109890203650

As long as they upped the 15% threshold to 25% or 30% within the 12 month speriod, that would be a sufficient change to justify revisiting the PM's security.

I thought the vote was once a year only ! Are we going to have best of three or going to keep on voting until the ERG get what they want ! The will of MPs was May stays as leader , that’s carved in stone never to be questioned like the EU ref !

nico67

Too much was made of the Tory manifesto . The over 65s didn’t desert the party and they would keep voting for them even if they brought in euthanasia at 80 !

ydoethur

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

"Fruitcakes and Loons". Yep I agree. That is probably a reasonable description of the Labour Party.

Certainly their currant crop is less than grape.

ydoethur

nico67 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1119333109890203650

As long as they upped the 15% threshold to 25% or 30% within the 12 month speriod, that would be a sufficient change to justify revisiting the PM's security.

I thought the vote was once a year only ! Are we going to have best of three or going to keep on voting until the ERG get what they want ! The will of MPs was May stays as leader , that’s carved in stone never to be questioned like the EU ref !

Think of it as an opportunity. We can now remind them that they want a second vote because they can't accept the result of the first one.

viewcode

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1119333109890203650

So, to summarise. A subset of MPs, having freely undertaken a vote, are unhappy with the outcome and wish to change the rules to have a revote in order to change the outcome.

Pause.

They don't do irony, do they...

John_McLean

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

"Fruitcakes and Loons". Yep I agree. That is probably a reasonable description of the Labour Party.

Certainly their currant crop is less than grape.

Where as the present crop of Tories are whine

rcs1000

Wulfrun_Phil said:

JosiasJessop said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pulpstar said:

Adonis is probably better on transport than Grayling...

If you mean better at wasting £100,000,000,000+ on political vanity projects, then yes.

He's certainly not as good as you are at picking figures out of your backside!

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/transport/2019/04/19/hs2-could-end-up-costing-more-than-156-billion/

I could end up living to 1,000 years old.

"could" being the operative word.

ydoethur

John_McLean said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

isam said:

A Lord giveth advice and a Lord tells voters to taketh their votes away

https://twitter.com/john_mills_jml/status/1119257139002916865?s=21

The only way to defeat fruitcakes and loons is to take them head on, not to accommodate them.

"Fruitcakes and Loons". Yep I agree. That is probably a reasonable description of the Labour Party.

Certainly their currant crop is less than grape.

Where as the present crop of Tories are whine

It's more that Labour's leadership is dated. I agree with you though that the Tories are cherry useless.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/1119345898981593089?s=21