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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next mo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections
To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mass as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later.
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The Euro elections are basically a free hit, neither supporters of Leave or Remain have cause to support the Tories at this stage.
Bellingcat have got an article (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/04/19/an-open-source-survey-of-the-shooting-of-lyra-mckee/) on research into the shooting of lyra McKee, and it shows just how much open-source information was available.
If there had been another five or ten extra cameras around on Bloody Sunday, would it have proven one way or another who fired first (*), thrown more light on what happened, and made things like the Widgery whitewash impossible? Might it have eased, rather than escalated tensions in the long run?
(*) Not that that necessarily excuses the actions of the soldiers.
It's entirely possible the vast bulk of conservative membership will vote against their own official candidates next month
And yes I call them pretend negotiations. The issues before our parties are difficult but not complex- they know the options in front of them, and it would not take long to discuss what each is prepared to do and not do, not even to assess potential party support for each option. Likely, not just possible. The Tory party is the no deal Brexit party, its MPs just havent caught up with that. Baker and co are not wrong when they claim to speak for the members better than others even though there are holdouts.
Being third is I think survivable if humiliating, particularly if they hold up better than expected in the locals. But they really need to set their shit out before the elections to limit the damage.
Unfortunately they cannot sort their shit out without a Brexit resolution and they need labour for that, who have no reason to give them one.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/apr/21/jared-diamond-upheaval-migration-minorities-how-countries-solve-crisis
I didn’t realise he’s now in his 80s.
Autocorrect surrealism.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/1120391387843895299?s=21
williamglenn said:
Ezra Klein
✔
@ezraklein
That monopolies answer by Warren in her CNN townhall was killer. A master class is how to clearly explain a complex policy that’s without collapsing into jargon.
The idea that Warren isn’t a charismatic speaker is insane. This is the stuff people gushed over Bill Clinton for.
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She's spot on about this. This sums it up for me:
"you can be the umpire in the baseball game and you can run an honest platform. Or you can be a player, that is, you can have a business or you can have a team in the game. But you don’t get to be the umpire and have a team in the game."
This is, in my view, one of the most urgent issues for the future competitiveness of western economies.
Boycotting would have made them the party of Brexit giving Farage a real problem. Trying to get MEPs elected to a Parliament that their membership, activists and most of their supporters want absolutely nothing to do with is, well, stupid is the word that comes to mind.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=20
The final EUref Comres in 2016 had Remain 8% ahead
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
The poll variation displayed on this thread is startling, partly down to the Lab/Green split. On the YouGov figures the Green will win several seats. On the ComRes figures a Green vote will probably be almost entirely wasted in terms of seats, as will CHUK, LibDem and UKIP. The BREX figures may reflect whether Farage was getting more coverage when the poll was taken - the previous figures may well reflect the launch coverage.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/23/341262/
I mean, the PM thinks it's dumb, all the member states think it's dumb, business leaders think it's dumb, trade union leaders think it's dumb, it's only happening because the voters thought it was clever, but per available polling, the voters now also think it's dumb. Added to which, nobody knows how to do it.
I know indefinite Gimp Remain is the path of least resistance, but as a prolonged state of affairs it's also *extremely* dumb, no matter what you think of brexit.
Then there is the tactical element, so in the East Midlands I am torn between my party, the Greens (best placed to take a Remain seat) and Labour, who have put up decent candidates and under Dehondt best placed to kick the Tories and UKIP in the arse.
(As an aside I saw my 21 year old cousin over the weekend. He tells me that none of the 18 year olds he knows are on Facebook. FWIW)
It would be predatory pricing
Boycotting elections is part of the political game - when Zac Goldsmith resigned the Conservative Party and vowed to stand as an Independent in Richmond Park, the Conservatives opted not to put up a candidate against him. This enabled Conservative activists to work for Goldsmith without any issue since, as I understand it, if your Party isn't standing in an election, as an activist you are free to work for another candidate if you so wish.
I'm sure this May there will be many local examples of Parties not contesting seats against certain Independents.
In the EU Referendum, the official position of the Conservative Party was one of neutrality which meant that while the Conservative PM backed REMAIN it was perfectly possible for Conservative MPs and activists to support LEAVE as they weren't actively working against their own party which is a hanging offence in all parties.
Boycotting the EU elections would free up Conservative members and activists to campaign for the Brexit Party but would mean no Conservative MEPs elected. As I understand it, even voting against the candidates of your party is awkward if you are a member or activist but of course that can never be proved. If, however, as a Conservative activist you publicly work for the candidates of another party, I'd have thought that would warrant suspension if not expulsion.
Choosing not to work for your own party's candidates in a given election on the other hand may disappoint the Party at national or even local level but it's your time and energy and if you don't want to that's up to you.
ETA: they might even know your car thanks to anpr in the supermarket car park. I don't know if anyone goes to the trouble of correlating customers with car registration numbers but they could.
But yes, saying "Welcome back Steve" would be too in-your-face for most customers!
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?
I've often thought this is the way it should be. You shouldn't vote in the locals on the performance of the Westminster bunch; it makes no sense and encourages poor local government. The practical problem is that it's difficult for the ordinary Joe and Joanna to assess just how well his and her local Council is performing, and which if any of the Councillors are worth supporting regardless of Party.
I will be voting in Tewkesbury's Council Elections for the first time in May. The Council is pretty much solid Tory and my general impression is that it does a decent job. I am intrigued to note that two of the Candidates that stood and won last time as Conservatives are standing as Independents this time round and opposing the official Blue Rosettes.
No, I don't know what the back story is but will do some research. Meanwhile, if anyone here can help.....
(Why is Vanilla logging me out each time I post?)
He's standing explicitly on a single-issue campaign on climate change, hoping to receive enough donations to make the debates and try to put climate change higher up the political agenda. Suppose the Extinction Rebellion protests were to spread to the US in a major way there would be a wave for someone to ride.
My general strategy on races of this type is to lay at short prices rather than back (I may make exceptions for very long-priced candidates with possibilities).
I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.
https://twitter.com/PeterAdamSmith/status/1120598444010344448
this is idiotic.
As to "how well the local Council is performing", everyone has their standards and there's no point comparing your Council with the Council next door because, short of moving house, you can't change the Council that provides your service though you can change its leadership and policy direction.
In any case, Council performance is in the eye of the beholder and what's important to you. Clean streets may matter more to you than adequate care for the elderly or it may not.
I am sure there will be plenty of Councillors who will blame their defeat on "national factors" and it is unfair sometimes but perhaps it's also a question of the divergence of importance between what the local council does and what the national Government does.
"Good morning. I hope you all had a good Easter. And welcome back to the Brexit Groundhog Day vortex of doom."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/23/30-years-research-never-seen-public-despondent-politics/