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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Before we get too excited at this stage before the 2014 Euro elections Farage’s party was on 38% – 20 points ahead of Cameron’s Tories

Lots of polling excitement tonight with surveys showing UKIP with a apparently avery large lead over the Tories and level pegging with LAB when the samples were asked how they would vote in next month’s euro elections.

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Benpointer

First like Labour if they offer a 2nd Ref

Benpointer

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Telegraph really is a rag

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1121722525350805504

Shocking spin from the Brexigraph.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh you rotter Mike, this is what my morning thread was going to be on.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1122203524513841152

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122251068577021957

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh you rotter Mike, this is what my morning thread was going to be on.

Hope you'll be shouting for Burnley tomorrow

AmpfieldAndy

Cameron’s response was to offer an In / Out EU referendum. May’s response will be what ? Even she can’t sell her own deal it’s so bad and revoking A50 would only make the Tory numbers a whole lot worse

TheScreamingEagles

I think @AlastairMeeks will now be voting for the Brexit Party.

WIDDY'S WORK ROW Nigel Farage faces voter backlash after Ann Widdecombe slams pension campaigners as ‘self-indulgent and entitled’

Strictly star lashed out at women campaigning against plans to raise the retirement age to 66 by 2020

NIGEL Farage is facing a voter backlash after new recruit Ann Widdecombe slammed pension campaigners.

The ex-Tory Minister claimed the 1950s-born women fighting the retirement age rise to 66 by 2020 were “self-indulgent and entitled”.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8954501/ann-widdecombe-slams-pension-campaigners/

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh you rotter Mike, this is what my morning thread was going to be on.

Hope you'll be shouting for Burnley tomorrow

I've always been 'Burnley Till I Die.'

Sunil_Prasannan

Benpointer said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Telegraph really is a rag

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1121722525350805504

Shocking spin from the Brexigraph.

45% is less than 50%

williamglenn

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

brokenwheel

Re:header

Yerbut look at Yougov.


And haven't most polling companies adjusted their methodologies since?

TheScreamingEagles

Lock her up!

https://twitter.com/magnusllewellin/status/1122059481448361984

Foxy

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Telegraph really is a rag

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1121722525350805504

Shocking spin from the Brexigraph.

45% is less than 50%

The quest for Brexit increasingly like the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable.

TheScreamingEagles

New IRA says Brexit helps it recruit

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122256536917741568

edmundintokyo

AmpfieldAndy said:

Cameron’s response was to offer an In / Out EU referendum. May’s response will be what ? Even she can’t sell her own deal it’s so bad and revoking A50 would only make the Tory numbers a whole lot worse

Offer an In / Out EU referendum?

Recidivist

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

edmundintokyo

Recidivist said:

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

Can they get their name off the ballots at this point?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1122262095813402625

Recidivist

edmundintokyo said:

Recidivist said:

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

Can they get their name off the ballots at this point?

Oh. Good point.

kle4

edmundintokyo said:

Recidivist said:

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

Can they get their name off the ballots at this point?

I don't think they can. The lack of a pact may well harm Tig and LD, but the ram has touched the wall, it is battling time now.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh you rotter Mike, this is what my morning thread was going to be on.

Head and deputy at loggerheads? Are OGH and TSE the Corbyn and Watson of PB?

_Anazina_

Is @JackJack a (very good) spoof poster? His outpourings are far superior to the Daily Mash.

kle4

_Anazina_ said:

Is @JackJack a (very good) spoof poster? His outpourings are far superior to the Daily Mash.

Always assume everyone is serious, that's my motto.

CarlottaVance

Good post:

The Tories have a debate on their hands about what direction they should go in. Do they return to the politics of the Cameron coalition? This delivered majority government, won over a greater percentage of AB (better off) voters, won more university towns, more professionals but fewer rural areas. Or should the Tories double down and become the Brexit party, moving towards what Nick Timothy says is the “National” party, with a rural, less affluent base led by someone like Boris Johnson?

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/the-tories-are-stuck-in-the-middle-with-may-heres-what-they-should-do-next/

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1122262095813402625

Don't 'hypothetical" polls generally lead to a purported increase in support for secession?

kle4

While I don't expect it, and think if it happens it could mean neither gets any seats (or only 1 or 2), what would happen if the Tiggers do get more votes than the LDs? What a humiliation it would be for a longstanding party and most prominent Remain party. If they cannot beat a hastily assembled assortment of other party defectors with literally no policy other than the same as the LDs, what do the LDs do?

spire2

and the last 5 years have been very uneventful so an example from 2014nis a significant indicator

Recidivist

kle4 said:

While I don't expect it, and think if it happens it could mean neither gets any seats (or only 1 or 2), what would happen if the Tiggers do get more votes than the LDs? What a humiliation it would be for a longstanding party and most prominent Remain party. If they cannot beat a hastily assembled assortment of other party defectors with literally no policy other than the same as the LDs, what do the LDs do?

That's a good question.

CarlottaVance

On topic - Martin Boon:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1121852994797154311

rottenborough

Recidivist said:

edmundintokyo said:

Recidivist said:

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

Can they get their name off the ballots at this point?

Oh. Good point.

No. Deadline for withdrawals was Thursday just gone iirc.

CarlottaVance

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

When wasn't "Now" the time in Secessionland?

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1122260686883696643

CarlottaVance

That Nat onal needs work on its headlines:

Incredible YouGov poll shows huge shift in favour in Scottish independence

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17602171.incredible-yougov-poll-shows-huge-shift-in-favour-in-scottish-independence/

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

That Nat onal needs work on its headlines:

Incredible YouGov poll shows huge shift in favour in Scottish independence

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17602171.incredible-yougov-poll-shows-huge-shift-in-favour-in-scottish-independence/

So incredible it still has No in the lead and buried in the small print 'On the timing of an independence referendum, 42% of those polled want a vote in the next five years, and 48% do not – with 10% saying they were unsure.'

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/SAshworthHayes/status/1122204310262120448

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1122254890896625664?s=20

Foxy

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1122262095813402625

Probably the pivotal factor why May extended Article 50 again rather than allow No Deal.


The standard figure though has No ahead


https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122271826640625664?s=20

rottenborough

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

Bear with.

NickPalmer

Confusingly, we're seeing two different Sunday Times front pages. Is one the Scottish edition?

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

Confusingly, we're seeing two different Sunday Times front pages. Is one the Scottish edition?

Yes, it has 'Sunday Times' then 'Scotland' under the main title

Theuniondivvie

NickPalmer said:

Confusingly, we're seeing two different Sunday Times front pages. Is one the Scottish edition?

Aye, there's a wee 'Scotland' popping out of Sir Elton's bonce in the Scottish edition.

Stereotomy

edmundintokyo said:

Recidivist said:

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

Can they get their name off the ballots at this point?

As if they'd even consider it

rottenborough

Anyone would think there's a by-election looming:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1122129600522457088

OblitusSumMe

I've made Mike's point previously, so I'll now put the contrary case.

In 2014 the Conservatives were lead by Cameron. Now they are lead by May.

While there was discontent in Tory ranks over Europe in 2014 it was as nothing compared to local parties refusing to campaign for the party as now.

And, as a mid-term election it would have helped in 2014 that they were in Coalition with the Lib Dems, who did so much to absorb the public's anger during the Coalition years, leaving the Tories relatively unscathed.

Not so now. Every government failure is a Tory government failure.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/SlebowSays/status/1121546381985026048

rottenborough

Stereotomy said:

edmundintokyo said:

Recidivist said:

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1122239685055733762

Can they get their name off the ballots at this point?

As if they'd even consider it

Why the very idea...

Foxy

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

Bear with.

Will another two decades be long enough?

RobD

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

Bear with.

Will another two decades be long enough?

You have interesting ideas about the length of a Scottish generation.

rottenborough

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

Bear with.

Will another two decades be long enough?

Two years, if/when Italy explodes.

On which note, I am away to my bed. Night all.

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1122254890896625664?s=20

Fuel to the vote Labour Stop Farage campaign .Why attack Labour when there are millions of Tory votes ripe for a good plucking ? Good and very hard ?

viewcode

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

"Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro" are now in their second decade.

dixiedean

rottenborough said:

Anyone would think there's a by-election looming:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1122129600522457088

That pack needs a sesh on the scrum machine pdq.

viewcode

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SlebowSays/status/1121546381985026048

OH GOD HAS SHE NEVER SEEN A HORROR FILM? If you go into a house in a horror film and the room is filled with dolls, either the doll is going to kill her or she is going to kill you, and there's a good chance you will end up as one of the dolls. Is her next picture the one with the pit in her cellar?

dixiedean

viewcode said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SlebowSays/status/1121546381985026048

OH GOD HAS SHE NEVER SEEN A HORROR FILM? If you go into a house in a horror film and the room is filled with dolls, either the doll is going to kill her or she is going to kill you, and there's a good chance you will end up as one of the dolls. Is her next picture the one with the pit in her cellar?

Shes nailed on the Stephen King endorsement .

AndyJS

Difficult to believe the Tories could really go as low as 14% at the Euro elections as the Opinium poll was showing. What would they be on in Liverpool and Glasgow in that case? Minus twenty perhaps.

JackJack

So Scottish independence surges in the type of Brexit that would require a hard border along Hadrian's Wall?

rcs1000

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

Bear with.

Will another two decades be long enough?

Two years, if/when Italy explodes.

On which note, I am away to my bed. Night all.

The weird bit is, of course, that Euro membership is rather more popular than EU membership in Italy.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

Breaking News: Now is the time

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1122252437883113472?s=21

By the time they vote the Euro could be in so much trouble the SNP will have no chance.

Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Euro is a hardy perennial on PB, yet it seems rather vigorous.

Bear with.

Will another two decades be long enough?

Two years, if/when Italy explodes.

On which note, I am away to my bed. Night all.

The weird bit is, of course, that Euro membership is rather more popular than EU membership in Italy.

The EU is seen as quite pro migration of... everyone, so clashes with Salvini's ideas. But the Italians enjoy having a strong currency

Dura_Ace

rottenborough said:

Anyone would think there's a by-election looming:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1122129600522457088

Boris has gone undercover with the enemy.

AndyJS

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

Anyone would think there's a by-election looming:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1122129600522457088

Boris has gone undercover with the enemy.

+1

IanB2

This thread has

lost its core vote.