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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

There were a LOT of polls, including my own, that failed to notice. 2/?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    First. :)
  • Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited April 2019

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Fourth from the North Sea like Boris.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    If BXT expectations continue to be talked up, their falling short in the actual poll becomes a story, with any luck.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    The latter's my excuse. Early to bed, early to rise.
  • Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Actually, I'm practising for the dawn raid on Thursday with our local Independents.
  • Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    Actually, I'm practising for the dawn raid on Thursday with our local Independents and clearly failing as I'm half asleep and posted incorrectly a few minutes ago!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,725

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    The latter's my excuse. Early to bed, early to rise.
    Does it, in your opinion and experience, work?

    Make you healthy, wealthy and wise?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    The latter's my excuse. Early to bed, early to rise.
    Does it, in your opinion and experience, work?

    Make you healthy, wealthy and wise?
    I'm (reasonably) healthy. As for wealth, and I'm not rich, but we're in our mid-forties, no mortgage, and money in the bank, so compared to most, probably.

    As for wise: I'll leave that up to the reader to decide. ;)

    My sleep problem is simple: I have no problem getting to sleep past nine at night: I just close my eyes and sleep. The issue is that if I awake after about 3 in the morning, I cannot get back to sleep. My mind just zooms off, so rather than just lay in bed, I get up.

    When I was working, it was a great time to get some really good work in.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    It's a fair point. I also suspect these same "first responders" give a slightly false impression about participation and likelihood to vote figures. The latter is particularly important given that turnout was 35.6% the last time and is likely to be less this time since some (probably Tories) are going to refuse to take part. Those that respond to the surveys are atypical of their cohort. Roughly 1 in 3 is going to vote so any polling that does not reflect that is going to be wrong.

    All of that said, however, the fact remains that the Brexit party are likely to get the majority of those who want to leave while the remain vote will be fragmented over a lot of parties. I think it is very likely that they will top the poll giving Farage another moment in the sun.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    I wouldn’t want to be an opinion pollster.

    Getting this right is like alchemy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: my analysis of a less than stellar (no proper crashes) Azerbaijan Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2019.html

    As an aside, No Safety Car was 5. It seems there's now a 50% incidence at that circuit, so it may be worth a look next time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Yep.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    Or (a view held by some of your more deluded posters) we work the night shift at CCHQ....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    That's a pretty low number - IIRC the voters have historically always tended to think there's too much immigration, regardless of how much there is. I'm not sure where Scotland has been - are there any other data points apart from that one from a year ago?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    All of that said, however, the fact remains that the Brexit party are likely to get the majority of those who want to leave while the remain vote will be fragmented over a lot of parties. I think it is very likely that they will top the poll giving Farage another moment in the sun.

    I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Brexit Party came first.

    However, they aren't polling as well as UKIP five years ago. There are reasons why that isn't surprising. They are an entirely new party, and a one-man band.

    They are not as far ahead as UKIP five years ago. A relatively small error in the polling would see them second - though Labour were also overstated in the polls five years ago.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    DavidL said:

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.

    It might be interesting to poll this asking the Scottish voters about Scotland instead of the UK.

    Come to think of it outside Scotland, "is there too much immigration in *your area*" would also be interesting to compare.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    All of that said, however, the fact remains that the Brexit party are likely to get the majority of those who want to leave while the remain vote will be fragmented over a lot of parties. I think it is very likely that they will top the poll giving Farage another moment in the sun.

    I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Brexit Party came first.

    However, they aren't polling as well as UKIP five years ago. There are reasons why that isn't surprising. They are an entirely new party, and a one-man band.

    They are not as far ahead as UKIP five years ago. A relatively small error in the polling would see them second - though Labour were also overstated in the polls five years ago.
    I am really struggling to see what is likely to motivate Labour supporters to vote this time around other than the traditional kick the Tories meme. If the perception is that they have already been kicked to death on this motivation may fall even more. What is surprising, compared to the Brexit Party, is how poorly the CUKs are doing.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    PP, which tacked to the hard right in response to Vox and talked openly about going into coalition with them, has lost half its seats and half its vote in the Spanish election. A proportion went to Vox (led by ex-PP politicians), but a good chunk went to C’s. Significantly, PP got 33% of the vote in the 2016 general election, while PP and Vix combined got just 27% in 2019. You won’t read this in the UK press or hear it on the BBC because they’re all looking for a Franco narrative, but the hard right went backwards in Spain yesterday. And PSOE - radical social democrats, not Corbyn socialists - won its first national election since 2008.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    Is this...is this really bad for the SNP? #honeymoonover
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,725

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    The latter's my excuse. Early to bed, early to rise.
    Does it, in your opinion and experience, work?

    Make you healthy, wealthy and wise?
    I'm (reasonably) healthy. As for wealth, and I'm not rich, but we're in our mid-forties, no mortgage, and money in the bank, so compared to most, probably.

    As for wise: I'll leave that up to the reader to decide. ;)

    My sleep problem is simple: I have no problem getting to sleep past nine at night: I just close my eyes and sleep. The issue is that if I awake after about 3 in the morning, I cannot get back to sleep. My mind just zooms off, so rather than just lay in bed, I get up.

    When I was working, it was a great time to get some really good work in.
    Well, if you own your own home and have no mortgage, then yes, reasonably wealthy is probably a fair description.
    And I agree about a good time to work. I had a time in my life when I used to get up at 6 or so, and work on my committee/representative duties for a couple of hours. By the time the phone started ringing and the post arrived my in-tray was empty!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.

    It might be interesting to poll this asking the Scottish voters about Scotland instead of the UK.

    Come to think of it outside Scotland, "is there too much immigration in *your area*" would also be interesting to compare.
    Very little about peoples' views on immigration is rational but the fact is that in Scotland there is nothing like the same pressure on services or housing that we see in the rest of the UK, particularly London.

    The one area where there is a bit of a problem is education. My sister is a teacher in Dunfermline and they have had a very large increase in the number of children from eastern Europe in the last 5 years with a massive increase in the number of children for whom English is not a first language. It has made her job a lot more difficult. My wife also found at college that the "free" education provided to EU citizens meant that some courses had more eastern European participants than Scots. Again a large number tended to be women with young children who received relatively generous funding.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    The other interesting takeaway from the Spanish general election is that avowedly separatist parties got less than 40% of the vote in Catalonia on a record turnout of over 77%, which is very close to the 80% turnout for the December 2017 regional election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    FPT - I live in East Hampshire (which is solidly Tory) but I’ve seen two LD diamonds and three terraced houses with Labour posters, and one with loads of them (I presume the candidate) on the main road in our local town.

    I doubt they will win - EHDC has 43 Tory councillors of 44 - and many of the houses without any posters at all will by shy Tories, but it is a change.

    Before 2017GE you never (ever) saw a Labour poster around here. It was LD at best.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    edited April 2019
    FPT - also, straws in the wind that when local (and by extension) general elections get going people vote on domestic day-to-day issues, despite what they may say about Brexit either which way when one isn’t.

    That should be a very serious lesson for the Conservatives, but it’s one they’ll probably dismiss.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    All of that said, however, the fact remains that the Brexit party are likely to get the majority of those who want to leave while the remain vote will be fragmented over a lot of parties. I think it is very likely that they will top the poll giving Farage another moment in the sun.

    I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Brexit Party came first.

    However, they aren't polling as well as UKIP five years ago. There are reasons why that isn't surprising. They are an entirely new party, and a one-man band.

    They are not as far ahead as UKIP five years ago. A relatively small error in the polling would see them second - though Labour were also overstated in the polls five years ago.
    I am really struggling to see what is likely to motivate Labour supporters to vote this time around other than the traditional kick the Tories meme. If the perception is that they have already been kicked to death on this motivation may fall even more. What is surprising, compared to the Brexit Party, is how poorly the CUKs are doing.
    That doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.

    CUK are offering nothing new. They are just #FBPE going to the polls, and are about to discover that Twitter isn’t the same as real life.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    DavidL said:

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.
    Why would anyone new invest in Scotland with the sword of Damocles of independence hanging over them?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited April 2019

    PP, which tacked to the hard right in response to Vox and talked openly about going into coalition with them, has lost half its seats and half its vote in the Spanish election. A proportion went to Vox (led by ex-PP politicians), but a good chunk went to C’s. Significantly, PP got 33% of the vote in the 2016 general election, while PP and Vix combined got just 27% in 2019. You won’t read this in the UK press or hear it on the BBC because they’re all looking for a Franco narrative, but the hard right went backwards in Spain yesterday. And PSOE - radical social democrats, not Corbyn socialists - won its first national election since 2008.

    The BBC seem to now have a weirdly fixed narrative on these type of elections, ie a breakthrough for which ever far right freakshow has bloomed forth, in this case Vox who came a mighty fifth. Their report last night (which seemed to contain palpable disappointment) signed off by telling us how let down & angry those who voted for right-wing parties would feel. It's a right bugger, that democracy lark!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.
    Why would anyone new invest in Scotland with the sword of Damocles of independence hanging over them?
    Well think of how we have all enjoyed the banter, good humour and camaraderie generated by Brexit. There is a chance to do it all again many times over. Who could possibly want to miss out on that?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    PP, which tacked to the hard right in response to Vox and talked openly about going into coalition with them, has lost half its seats and half its vote in the Spanish election. A proportion went to Vox (led by ex-PP politicians), but a good chunk went to C’s. Significantly, PP got 33% of the vote in the 2016 general election, while PP and Vix combined got just 27% in 2019. You won’t read this in the UK press or hear it on the BBC because they’re all looking for a Franco narrative, but the hard right went backwards in Spain yesterday. And PSOE - radical social democrats, not Corbyn socialists - won its first national election since 2008.

    The BBC seem to now have a weirdly fixed narrative on these type of elections, ie a breakthrough for which ever far right freakshow has bloomed forth, in this case Vox who came a mighty fifth. Their report last night (which seemed to contain palpable disappointment) signed off by telling us how let down & angry those who voted for right-wing parties would feel. It's a right bugger, that democracy lark!

    The BBC has its story and is going to stick to it. Why do any research when you can waffle on about Franco and bullfights?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    You won’t read this in the UK press or hear it on the BBC because they’re all looking for a Franco narrative

    BBC News:

    Spain's governing Socialists won the country's third election in four years, but have fallen short of a majority.

    PM Pedro Sánchez's party polled 29% and will need the help of either left-wing Podemos and regional parties, or the centre right, to form a government.

    For the first time since military rule ended in the 1970s, a far-right party is set to enter parliament.


    Katya Adler:

    After weeks of Spain's resurgent far right hugging all the headlines, didn't the centre-left just win a resounding victory?

    Did Spaniards have a last-minute change of heart? What does this all mean?

    Spain's Socialist party members will certainly have the biggest smiles on their faces this morning. But landslide victory this was not.

    The party improved massively on its last performance in national elections. It managed to take control of Spain's upper house of parliament too, but still lacks a majority to govern.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48081540

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Some of us were watching GoT...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884

    DavidL said:

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.
    Why would anyone new invest in Scotland with the sword of Damocles of independence hanging over them?
    The benevolent climate.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Don’t we have to add on the 1.5% that ‘An Independence From Europe’ got to the UKIP 2014 vote? It was assumed that anyone voting for them was meaning to vote kipper
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Scott_P said:

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Some of us were watching GoT...
    No spoilers. Some of us are on catch up (because we do have work this morning, talking of which)...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
  • McDonnell is a very real threat to the economy and has no answer to the social care crisis.

    The country needs a grown up debate and this seems a good starting point.

    I have no problem on being taxed on my winter fuel allowance and NI should be extended to all over 60s who are in work, irrespective of their age. A 1% care surcharge is a good suggestion for those over 50 as it evens out the accusation that the young are disadvantaged in so many other ways
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Yes but also wrong. The big ox vote is in the rundown parts of SE Spain where there are many Moroccans and very few European/British migrants.
  • On rising early for work I listened to 5 live business at 5.00am every morning and rose by 6.00am at the latest. Indeed when I owned a newsagents business I was actually preparing papers every morning from 5.30am and 6.30am on Sundays

    When I sold the newsagents and went into business I continued to rise early and was always in my office by 6.30am throughout the rest of my working life

    These days I cannot sleep past 5.00am and do not need an alarm clock, and this applies wherever I am in the world, irrespective of time zones
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267

    FPT - I live in East Hampshire (which is solidly Tory) but I’ve seen two LD diamonds and three terraced houses with Labour posters, and one with loads of them (I presume the candidate) on the main road in our local town.

    I doubt they will win - EHDC has 43 Tory councillors of 44 - and many of the houses without any posters at all will by shy Tories, but it is a change.

    Before 2017GE you never (ever) saw a Labour poster around here. It was LD at best.

    Same here in Surrey - we have 50 Tory councillors to 1 LD and 0 Lab. We expect gains for both LibDems and Labour this time, and voters seem quite motivated, unusually for local elections - the feeling that one-party rule is a bad idea is quite widespread, especially as the Conservatives are not currently noted for competence nationally.

    The Tories don't seem to have many helpers and are relying on good, professional leaflets: they retain a solid core vote but it's fraying at the edges. Labour morale is good - in my patch we're halfway through a second canvass, though I expect to come behind the LibDem as we have a candidate each in a 2-member ward and our votes will go to him as well.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Polls have been questionable for a while - both the last 2 GE’s have been shockers for polling companies. The interesting questions though are how Labour perform and how the SNP perform. That will give a good indication of how real the threat is of a Corbyn Gov and how realistic the prospect of Scottish Independence.

    The Tories getting hammered and Farage’s Brexit party doing well are pretty much a given, partly because of a protest vote and partly because of loss of real support.

    There are virtually no signs of any pending elections here - local or Euro. Just two LD posters from the usual suspects. I suspect turnout will be low which will make reading the runes for a GE harder.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    edited April 2019



    My sleep problem is simple: I have no problem getting to sleep past nine at night: I just close my eyes and sleep. The issue is that if I awake after about 3 in the morning, I cannot get back to sleep. My mind just zooms off, so rather than just lay in bed, I get up.

    When I was working, it was a great time to get some really good work in.

    I had the same problem as I have multiple interests and there's always something to think about. I started taking nitrazepam 20 years ago, and although it's thought to be unwise to take for more than a month, as it's supposed to lose its effectiveness, I still find it works well for me on the same low dose (and not taking it makes me wake up and think about leaflets or games or whatever, just as before). Health is very individual and I wouldn't recommend anyone to follow my example blindly (definitely don't start taking more), but it's perhaps worth discussing with your GP if the lack of sleep bothers you.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    McDonnell is a very real threat to the economy and has no answer to the social care crisis.

    The country needs a grown up debate and this seems a good starting point.

    I have no problem on being taxed on my winter fuel allowance and NI should be extended to all over 60s who are in work, irrespective of their age. A 1% care surcharge is a good suggestion for those over 50 as it evens out the accusation that the young are disadvantaged in so many other ways
    The last grown up debate on Social Care that the Tories tried lost Mrs May her majority. It made the ERG loons more powerful too,..
  • The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    Immigration to the UK and immigration to Scotland are different questions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    I fail to see the humour given by your own admission you dont have a problem with the idea but also have no problem with it being automatically turned into a political attack.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Quiet here this morning. Clearly, few of you have jobs that require an early start on a Monday!

    Generally the first overnight participants to a thread posted at 0400 BST are those living in different time zones. The other alternative is that they are insomniacs
    The latter's my excuse. Early to bed, early to rise.
    Does it, in your opinion and experience, work?

    Make you healthy, wealthy and wise?
    I'm (reasonably) healthy. As for wealth, and I'm not rich, but we're in our mid-forties, no mortgage, and money in the bank, so compared to most, probably.

    As for wise: I'll leave that up to the reader to decide. ;)

    My sleep problem is simple: I have no problem getting to sleep past nine at night: I just close my eyes and sleep. The issue is that if I awake after about 3 in the morning, I cannot get back to sleep. My mind just zooms off, so rather than just lay in bed, I get up.

    When I was working, it was a great time to get some really good work in.
    I'm with you on waking at that time. I go through phases when I wake a 3/4 and cannot then sleep until 7/8. As I'm generally a late rider it then messes up my schedule the rest of the day.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited April 2019

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Not really amusing. It’s a somewhat bitchy and very snobbish remark about those you perceive as inferior
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Maybe.

    Opinion polls have quite enough uncertainties in without seeking to be superscientific about them. There are other reasons to think that the Brexit party might underperform relative to the polls, most notably the lack of structure at the moment, meaning some of the most marginal voters will be lost. (The same is true of the TIGgers.)

    Set against that, with any new party getting an accurate sample is likely to be testing until there's a clear idea of the demographic they appeal to.

    I guess what I'm saying is that polls are particularly low value at the moment, especially since most people treat this election frivolously.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Actually my bit of Spain had PP and Vox both in the low 20’s most of the British immigrants here fit in well!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    All of that said, however, the fact remains that the Brexit party are likely to get the majority of those who want to leave while the remain vote will be fragmented over a lot of parties. I think it is very likely that they will top the poll giving Farage another moment in the sun.

    I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Brexit Party came first.

    However, they aren't polling as well as UKIP five years ago. There are reasons why that isn't surprising. They are an entirely new party, and a one-man band.

    They are not as far ahead as UKIP five years ago. A relatively small error in the polling would see them second - though Labour were also overstated in the polls five years ago.
    I am really struggling to see what is likely to motivate Labour supporters to vote this time around other than the traditional kick the Tories meme. If the perception is that they have already been kicked to death on this motivation may fall even more. What is surprising, compared to the Brexit Party, is how poorly the CUKs are doing.
    Their goal seems to be to get more votes than the LDs. Seems unlikely but by some polls not impossible. That might mean no seats but if the LDs cannot beat a hastily assembled new party with no policy other than the LD policy, it would be big for CUK. If nothing else I'd think it would bolster the CUK position if despite current talk they and LDs talk of merging.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    It feels like theres a lot more of these coordinated local independent groups popping up, certainly the electoral commission registration site is full of them. Round my way the like have run 2 towns for some time and a third since the most recent elections. They can really sweep all before them, and in one case even took seats on the local authority.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    This came up serendipitously in my time line. Now that would really get the serranos ragin'.

    https://twitter.com/historylvrsclub/status/1122763005576589312
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited April 2019
    I expect the Brexit Party will win the Euros but I also expect Labour to be quite close behind
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    felix said:

    Yes but also wrong. The big ox vote is in the rundown parts of SE Spain where there are many Moroccans and very few European/British migrants.
    Murcia looks to be best pro vox area lots of agriculture therefore lots of Moroccans as the only Spanish who work in the fields drive the tractor.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Divvie, indeed, one suspects it could raise an eyebrow or two.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Indeed and using higher NI to pay for more funds for social care, excluding older people, tends to poll better than higher inheritance tax or a 'dementia tax'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    FPT - also, straws in the wind that when local (and by extension) general elections get going people vote on domestic day-to-day issues, despite what they may say about Brexit either which way when one isn’t.

    That should be a very serious lesson for the Conservatives, but it’s one they’ll probably dismiss.

    Only if parties deliver what they say, if the Tories do not deliver Brexit that is an entirely different matter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    The other interesting takeaway from the Spanish general election is that avowedly separatist parties got less than 40% of the vote in Catalonia on a record turnout of over 77%, which is very close to the 80% turnout for the December 2017 regional election.

    No different to the SNP vote in Scotland in 2017 then
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: my analysis of a less than stellar (no proper crashes) Azerbaijan Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2019.html

    As an aside, No Safety Car was 5. It seems there's now a 50% incidence at that circuit, so it may be worth a look next time.

    Yes, we’ve had two ‘straight’ races there, and two demolition derbies.

    The F2 cars did a good job of keeping Bernd Maylander and his AMG GT-R busy this weekend though, so it’s difficult to predict.

    Obviously, you’ll be backing no SC in Monaco this year? ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    37% of Scots say immigration levels about right, 6% of Scots say immigration levels are too low
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Charles said:

    Not really amusing. It’s a somewhat bitchy and very snobbish remark about those you perceive as inferior
    +1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    This came up serendipitously in my time line. Now that would really get the serranos ragin’

    It seems to be an old 2014 story that the Emir of Qatar offered to convert it if the city approved.

    https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/2172496/0/plaza-toros-monumental/transformara-gran-mezquita/barcelona-emir-qatar/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, I'm sure I'll manage to choose the wrong option there.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    Yes but also wrong. The big ox vote is in the rundown parts of SE Spain where there are many Moroccans and very few European/British migrants.
    Murcia looks to be best pro vox area lots of agriculture therefore lots of Moroccans as the only Spanish who work in the fields drive the tractor.
    El Ejido in Almeria is a Vox stronghold - maybe 200kms from us in Mojacar area but a very different world.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Someone linked to this with reference to what happened to PP in Spain - if parties aren't careful they end up being the default choice of no-one. So in the case of the Tories Brexit takes the right wing, Chuk the centralists...

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1122174905729134594
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    DavidL said:

    The other point Boon made on that thread is that any 'read over' from Euro to Westminster would be misleading in the extreme.

    Meanwhile, everything's going so well......

    Opposition to immigration is growing in Scotland with almost half the population believing that it is too high, according to a new poll.

    A YouGov survey for The Times has found that 45 per cent of interviewees think too many people are entering the UK, an increase of six percentage points on June last year.

    This is despite the leadership of Scotland’s main political parties, particularly the SNP, having liberal attitudes towards migration. Nicola Sturgeon used a speech to the SNP conference in Edinburgh yesterday to make an impassioned defence of the benefits of immigration and say that the door was open to anyone wanting to live and work in Scotland.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/poll-reveals-sharp-rise-in-opposition-to-immigration-bwqsxj8tj

    I don't think that anyone could seriously claim that Scotland is over populated. We have 32% of the land mass of the UK and about 8% of the population which, if my maths works at this time in the morning, suggests our population density is only 25% of the average. Obviously the Highlands distorts this but even the central belt is not that densely populated.

    What we really need are entrepreneurial types who are going to create businesses and improve the tax base. Whether the rest of Nicola's speech is likely to achieve that I would leave others to judge but higher taxes, more squeezing out by an over large state offering better terms of employment than private sector businesses, ever keen to extend the scope and burden of regulation does not seem the way to go to me.
    Why would anyone new invest in Scotland with the sword of Damocles of independence hanging over them?
    Why would anyone new invest in the UK with the much larger sword of Damocles of Brexit hanging over them?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I would have thought the journalist had a responsibility in a case like that to not share some of what she had heard. Terribly sad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Sandpit, I'm sure I'll manage to choose the wrong option there.

    I bet against the SC for the past three years, at prices of 7 or 8. Came in at 7.5 last year, thanks to the fantastic Monegasque marshals doing a great job of cleaning up dead cars quickly.

    My fear is that the new race director might be more SC-minded than Charlie was, he seems to be slightly more risk averse as he settles in to the new job.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    PP, which tacked to the hard right in response to Vox and talked openly about going into coalition with them, has lost half its seats and half its vote in the Spanish election. A proportion went to Vox (led by ex-PP politicians), but a good chunk went to C’s. Significantly, PP got 33% of the vote in the 2016 general election, while PP and Vix combined got just 27% in 2019. You won’t read this in the UK press or hear it on the BBC because they’re all looking for a Franco narrative, but the hard right went backwards in Spain yesterday. And PSOE - radical social democrats, not Corbyn socialists - won its first national election since 2008.

    The BBC seem to now have a weirdly fixed narrative on these type of elections, ie a breakthrough for which ever far right freakshow has bloomed forth, in this case Vox who came a mighty fifth. Their report last night (which seemed to contain palpable disappointment) signed off by telling us how let down & angry those who voted for right-wing parties would feel. It's a right bugger, that democracy lark!

    The BBC has its story and is going to stick to it. Why do any research when you can waffle on about Franco and bullfights?

    Isn’t it nonetheless concerning that a far right party went from 0 to 10% in a country which did not, since the demise of Franco, have such a party?

    Perhaps there is a touch of complacency in the reaction?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It is sort of missing the point but if it is relevant that Slattery did modern and medieval languages at Cambridge then FFS tell us which particular languages. Otherwise, leave it out.

    Slattery is bipolar, as is Stephen Fry iirc. But though I'm no medical man, his problems may have had more to do with a bottle of vodka and 10 grams of cocaine a day. Good luck to him anyway.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I would have thought the journalist had a responsibility in a case like that to not share some of what she had heard. Terribly sad.
    Do journalists think like that?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    edited April 2019

    I would have thought the journalist had a responsibility in a case like that to not share some of what she had heard. Terribly sad.
    Two bottles of vodka and 10g of cocaine a day?!! I can’t believe anyone could do that, I wonder how long he kept that up for. Makes me feel queasy thinking about it.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    edited April 2019
    Michael Portillo talking to Pamela Anderson about populism

    https://twitter.com/drteckkhong/status/1122555824767942656?s=21
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Cyclefree said:

    PP, which tacked to the hard right in response to Vox and talked openly about going into coalition with them, has lost half its seats and half its vote in the Spanish election. A proportion went to Vox (led by ex-PP politicians), but a good chunk went to C’s. Significantly, PP got 33% of the vote in the 2016 general election, while PP and Vix combined got just 27% in 2019. You won’t read this in the UK press or hear it on the BBC because they’re all looking for a Franco narrative, but the hard right went backwards in Spain yesterday. And PSOE - radical social democrats, not Corbyn socialists - won its first national election since 2008.

    The BBC seem to now have a weirdly fixed narrative on these type of elections, ie a breakthrough for which ever far right freakshow has bloomed forth, in this case Vox who came a mighty fifth. Their report last night (which seemed to contain palpable disappointment) signed off by telling us how let down & angry those who voted for right-wing parties would feel. It's a right bugger, that democracy lark!

    The BBC has its story and is going to stick to it. Why do any research when you can waffle on about Franco and bullfights?

    Isn’t it nonetheless concerning that a far right party went from 0 to 10% in a country which did not, since the demise of Franco, have such a party?

    Perhaps there is a touch of complacency in the reaction?
    Agreed.

    FWIW, the BBC also suggested that a significant part of the centre right vote moved to centre left for fear of seeing the far right participating in government.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    Lowest management costs of any Healthcare system. Top worldwide in terms of VFM. You mean that NHS.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    isam said:

    I would have thought the journalist had a responsibility in a case like that to not share some of what she had heard. Terribly sad.
    Two bottles of vodka and 10g of cocaine a day?!! I can’t believe anyone could do that, I wonder how long he kept that up for. Makes me feel queasy thinking about it.
    If you wanted to keep something private, why on earth would you tell a journalist?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    isam said:

    Michael Portillo talking to Pamela Anderson about populism

    https://twitter.com/drteckkhong/status/1122555824767942656?s=21

    Comparing Brexit to the US war of independence is fatuous.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    Lowest management costs of any Healthcare system. Top worldwide in terms of VFM. You mean that NHS.
    The NHS which gave us. Mid Staffs, Liverpool Care Pathway, Morecambe Bay, Southern Health and Gosport; which spends £ 1.5 bn pa on the NHS Litigation Authority and more than double on locum costs - that the one. Funny definition of VFM you’ve got.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756

    I would have thought the journalist had a responsibility in a case like that to not share some of what she had heard. Terribly sad.
    It's a tricky one.
    In my (unfortunate) experience of folk suffering from bipolar conditions, they lose their self protecting instincts along with many other sorts of self control, so you're right, those around them have a duty to provide some of that restraint. Otoh people in that situation do fall off the edge of the world, and sometimes they need the rest of us to be reminded that they still exist, numerous warts and all.
  • Any way I can vote for them, legally or otherwise......?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2019

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    NHS management mushroomed with the internal market and then local commissioning and part-privatisation. Both colour governments have been throwing away the advantage of the NHS: it was dirt cheap because it had hardly any management layers compared with abroad. Sure, a hospital might not have known how much bandages or drugs cost, or whether Mrs X was entitled to free treatment but the saving was on not paying for the bureaucracy to find out.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    It’s amazing how quickly things have gone from “this a proxy referendum” to “the polls are wrong”.

    ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    Lowest management costs of any Healthcare system. Top worldwide in terms of VFM. You mean that NHS.
    The NHS which gave us. Mid Staffs, Liverpool Care Pathway, Morecambe Bay, Southern Health and Gosport; which spends £ 1.5 bn pa on the NHS Litigation Authority and more than double on locum costs - that the one. Funny definition of VFM you’ve got.
    Commonwealth Fund definition more reliable than yours.

    Carry on the Tory underfunding and it will plummet though.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    I would have thought the journalist had a responsibility in a case like that to not share some of what she had heard. Terribly sad.
    Two bottles of vodka and 10g of cocaine a day?!! I can’t believe anyone could do that, I wonder how long he kept that up for. Makes me feel queasy thinking about it.
    If you wanted to keep something private, why on earth would you tell a journalist?
    He doesn't want to keep it private. He used to, but now he wants to get back on the telly and be famous again. Ironically at the sort of age non-showbiz types would retire.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, an astute observation, given the pit lane starts for Kubica and Raikkonen might not have happened if Whiting had made the calls.

    Understandable, as New Chap doesn't want to have a huge accident in his first few races.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Not really amusing. It’s a somewhat bitchy and very snobbish remark about those you perceive as inferior
    +1
    Fawning over immigrants to the uk who retain the culture and food of their homeland, whilst mocking brits abroad who do likewise, always seemed to me to be horribly patronising to the former.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    NHS management mushroomed with the internal market and then local commissioning and part-privatisation. Both colour governments have been throwing away the advantage of the NHS: it was dirt cheap because it had hardly any management layers compared with abroad. Sure, a hospital might not have known how much bandages or drugs cost, or whether Mrs X was entitled to free treatment but the saving was on not paying for the bureaucracy to find out.

    Ignorance is bliss hey. Doesn’t quite explain why the NHS has had so many disasters with actual care - Mid Staffs, Liverpool Care Pathway, Morecambe Bay, Southern Health, Gosport.

    Doctors biggest gripe is that they are micro managed and spend too much time on bureaucratic administration relating to patient care. Getting shot of all those who generate that paperwork and bureaucracy would save a few bn for social care.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    Lowest management costs of any Healthcare system. Top worldwide in terms of VFM. You mean that NHS.
    God bless the Conservative Government! The NHS is safe in its hands.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    Lowest management costs of any Healthcare system. Top worldwide in terms of VFM. You mean that NHS.
    The NHS which gave us. Mid Staffs, Liverpool Care Pathway, Morecambe Bay, Southern Health and Gosport; which spends £ 1.5 bn pa on the NHS Litigation Authority and more than double on locum costs - that the one. Funny definition of VFM you’ve got.
    Commonwealth Fund definition more reliable than yours.

    Carry on the Tory underfunding and it will plummet though.
    Don’t worry about spending public money effectively or efficiently hey ? Just chuck billions at it and ignore the problems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited April 2019
    eek said:

    Someone linked to this with reference to what happened to PP in Spain - if parties aren't careful they end up being the default choice of no-one. So in the case of the Tories Brexit takes the right wing, Chuk the centralists...

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1122174905729134594

    The PP had a poor night but were still second, just ahead of the liberal Citizens, the Brexit Party are not far right like Vox, UKIP are now more like Vox, they just want Brexit delivered.

    The Corbynista Podemos also lost votes to the PSOE
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,725

    It's an election, must be time for a new Tory plan to tax the elderly :). I'm not especially opposed to the idea myself, but four days before an election an unwise moment to start a cross-party debate.
    The days of the Tory Party bring low tax are long gone. They are just a Labour lite tax and spend Party now. Given how much money is wasted in the public sector, they would be far better off trying to reform some of that and means testing benefits rather than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money and then taxing them so that the poorest are worse off. A lot of people give their WF allowance to charity.

    NHS wastes billions on litigation, locums, scrapping drugs it has paid for, and is rife with too many overmanned and expensive management layers. Changing some of that would solve the funding for social care without any need for more tax.
    Lowest management costs of any Healthcare system. Top worldwide in terms of VFM. You mean that NHS.
    The NHS which gave us. Mid Staffs, Liverpool Care Pathway, Morecambe Bay, Southern Health and Gosport; which spends £ 1.5 bn pa on the NHS Litigation Authority and more than double on locum costs - that the one. Funny definition of VFM you’ve got.
    No the NHS isn't perfect. Odd, perhaps. However it's run by fallible human beings and while those in and around it generally do their best, sometimes things go wrong.
    And again, oddly, more things seem to have gone awry since the introduction of 'commercial type' management and systems.
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