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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of LE2019 Corbyn’s LAB appears as totally divided a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of LE2019 Corbyn’s LAB appears as totally divided as TMay’s Tories
Strong rumour in @UKLabour circles tonight that the excellent @Keir_Starmer is on the brink of resigning over Brexit policy and joining the future of British politics, @TheIndGroup
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https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-s-emails-claire-fox-and-warrington-ef58234455e4
> Claire Fox, Farage's number one in the NW of England, including Warrington, was an apologist for the IRA's murder of two children in the town:
>
> https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-s-emails-claire-fox-and-warrington-ef58234455e4
And she's just awful. A perfect fit for Brexit.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
> Claire Fox, Farage's number one in the NW of England, including Warrington, was an apologist for the IRA's murder of two children in the town:
>
> https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-s-emails-claire-fox-and-warrington-ef58234455e4
Didn't hurt Labour in Warrington in 2017.
> Claire Fox, Farage's number one in the NW of England, including Warrington, was an apologist for the IRA's murder of two children in the town:
>
> https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-s-emails-claire-fox-and-warrington-ef58234455e4
I suspect Tommy Robinson may win a seat in the North West then as Brexiteers vote for him over Fox
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Claire Fox, Farage's number one in the NW of England, including Warrington, was an apologist for the IRA's murder of two children in the town:
> >
> > https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-s-emails-claire-fox-and-warrington-ef58234455e4
>
> And she's just awful. A perfect fit for Brexit.
>
>
And she'll get in, also a perfect fit for Brexit.
Not April 1st.
Starmer is as likely to join CHUK as I am to vote LD
Starmer is better off sticking with Labour and challenging Corbyn on a diehard Remain ticket if Corbyn's Brexit policy starts to hit Labour in the polls
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Claire Fox, Farage's number one in the NW of England, including Warrington, was an apologist for the IRA's murder of two children in the town:
> >
> > https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-s-emails-claire-fox-and-warrington-ef58234455e4
>
> Didn't hurt Labour in Warrington in 2017.
(Don't seem to be able to post except as a reply.)
In theory this should save a few Tory Council seats and help the Remain parties, but one wonders just how bothered people are outside the Westminster bubble and us anoraks.
Shame about Starmer, if true, but hardly surprising.
And surely she’s politically-aware enough to realise that Labour are setting up that trap as a trap, with no intention of following through on any ‘agreement’ with actual whipped Commons votes?
If that is true and the Brexit Party, not Labour, win the European elections too that will put pressure on Corbyn
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123493187165794304?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
The concession of the CU has been inevitable since the first failure of the MV. We have simply been wasting time ever since. Those clots who went around to drink champagne at JRM's house are some of the stupidest people in politics and that is an incredibly low bar. As a result of their moronic behaviour we will end up with a worse deal tying us much more closely into the EU or, just as likely, never leave at all.
> Mike it's May 1st.
>
> Not April 1st.
>
>
> Starmer is as likely to join CHUK as I am to vote LD
Winning here John, winning here.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123493187165794304?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
Can we choose a new PM - and team around the PM - instead of those choices?
> Surely the PM isn’t too tin-eared to realise that half her cabinet will resign rather than vote for a customs union?
>
> And surely she’s politically-aware enough to realise that Labour are setting up that trap as a trap, with no intention of following through on any ‘agreement’ with actual whipped Commons votes?
If Corbyn also backs a Customs Union with no referendum he will lose half the Shadow Cabinet but as the indicative votes showed Deal plus Customs Union is closest to a Commons majority
He doesn't have much of a UK profile but he is very much what passes as a big cheese in SLAB these days. When Leonard decides to retire into well deserved obscurity he is very likely to be the next leader of SLAB. And the NCC treat him like shit. If that is how they treat someone with his profile imagine how ordinary members will be treated. This party is terminally sick.
>
> Can we choose a new PM - and team around the PM - instead of those choices?
A new PM would be faced with exactly the same choices.
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1123502924880064512
> A Labour MP crosses his fingers:
> https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1123502924880064512
That seems to set out the dilemma without giving a solution.
But it would be absolutely disastrous to the Remain/People's Vote cause.
For one thing, they'd lose much of their influence in Labour.
For another, the greater the splinter that leaves for CHUK, the greater the harm it will do to Labour's electoral prospects. If the Tories win a majority in a subsequent GE, then they will be able to get hard Brexit/No Deal through after all.
All Labour are doing is faking enthusiastic support for the worst of all options, purely so they can split the Tories.
> The signs are also that it will be the LDs, not Labour, who make the biggest gains on Thursday.
>
> If that is true and the Brexit Party, not Labour, win the European elections too that will put pressure on Corbyn
It seems that there will be some pretty extraordinary Lib Dem results tomorrow. In places where they are actually fighting, I'm hearing that the Tories are facing wipe out. I don't think it is universal, so the Tories may be able to clutch at a few straws, but I imagine it is squeeky bum time over at CCHQ. Of course if the Lib Dems do come out of the locals on a high, then it gives them a pretty strong platform for the Euros...
<i> "Osborne is a star of the Cultural Marxist, deep state, BBC, Bilderberger, Common Purpose New World Order." </i>
I'm not the only one impressed. A ton of 'likes'.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > Mike it's May 1st.
> >
> > Not April 1st.
> >
> >
> > Starmer is as likely to join CHUK as I am to vote LD
>
> Winning here John, winning here.
They are certainly going to win in the ward i am standing. Currently 1LD 1UKIP 1 LAB
I predict 3 LD. The current LD Councillor who topped the poll by 200 last time has written to his "neighbours" stating since he lost his sight he needs help to continue representing the ward from the other 2 LD candidates one of which is expense cheat former MP. I will come something like 6th or 7th of 14 methinks
Is this Vanilla upgrade going to prove an exception? It's tidier, seems to cope with the blockquote rather well and has given us back a like button. What have they got wrong? There must be something.
More likely he just resigns as Shadow Brexit Secretary . Whatever happens Corbyn needs to be challenged , he no longer can get away with thinking he walks on water .
A future leadership challenge if Brexit hasn’t happened by then will be a big problem for him.
KAPOWWW!!!
Mark Francois is now PM. What would change? What would he do to solve this?
> Starmer if he’s going to resign won’t do it until after the local elections . Whether he joins Change UK though I’m doubtful .
>
> More likely he just resigns as Shadow Brexit Secretary . Whatever happens Corbyn needs to be challenged , he no longer can get away with thinking he walks on water .
>
> A future leadership challenge if Brexit hasn’t happened by then will be a big problem for him.
I think someone should challenge this summer. Worth another roll of the dice.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1123510370528833536
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > Mike it's May 1st.
> > >
> > > Not April 1st.
> > >
> > >
> > > Starmer is as likely to join CHUK as I am to vote LD
> >
> > Winning here John, winning here.
>
> They are certainly going to win in the ward i am standing. Currently 1LD 1UKIP 1 LAB
>
> I predict 3 LD. The current LD Councillor who topped the poll by 200 last time has written to his "neighbours" stating since he lost his sight he needs help to continue representing the ward from the other 2 LD candidates one of which is expense cheat former MP. I will come something like 6th or 7th of 14 methinks
The old, "you wouldn't kick a blind man" defence? Worked for David Blunkett for a long time, despite him always giving at least as good as he got.
> Can we choose a new PM - and team around the PM - instead of those choices?
>
> This is naive thinking of the highest order. What exactly would change if there was a new PM?
>
> KAPOWWW!!!
>
> Mark Francois is now PM. What would change? What would he do to solve this?
I think that the biggest change is that the impotence and paralysis would then be a source of relief rather than a source of frustration.
> Pete Wishart wants to become speaker...
>
Do all these would-be candidates breaking cover - Wishart, Bryant, Leigh, that piece about the need for a woman - suggest Bercow may have made some private commitments?
> > @Tissue_Price said:
> > A Labour MP crosses his fingers:
> > https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1123502924880064512
>
> That seems to set out the dilemma without giving a solution.
Quite - fence right up his backside and he won't even squeak properly. Utterly useless.
1. It would provide a massive media distraction from what Labour wants, immediately before the local elections, and land all the blame on him.
2. Apart from Milne's rather Soviet monitoring of Starmer's interview earlier this week, there's no great reason for him to resign <I>now</I>.
3. Brexit talks are ongoing and the sort of thing Starmer is well suited to. His resignation could land him with the blame from both Con and Lab sides for a breakdown in those talks.
(As an aside, Labour's ambiguous EURef2 policy makes sense when seen in the context of those talks, as (1) a referendum has to be a card in that game, and (2) if a deal is reached, the last thing either side wants is to have to defend it in a public vote against the many zealots on both extremes).
4. Starmer has put up with all sorts of changes to Labour's Brexit policy over the last three years, from the leader / his office, from the NEC, the shadow cabinet, and conference - and has lived with them all. Again, why would he resign now, over a non-decision that actually gives him personally more space to define Labour's policy?
Also, Chapman is, not to put too fine a point on it, not entirely reliable in his judgement and not without an interest in the game.
> Don't get why people call them CHUK? The proper acronym is CUK. Or is it because Chukka Umunna is a founding member? Genuinely curious.
Chuka has clearly done it deliberately, it is Emmanuel Macron/En Marche all over again*
* Though probably not nearly as successful.
"It's tidier, seems to cope with the blockquote rather well and .."
> I think that the biggest change is that the impotence and paralysis would then be a source of relief rather than a source of frustration.
>
> That is true - he would finish chairing his first cabinet meeting, open the door, walk with a Prime Ministerial air into the stationery cupboard, and be there for the next 11 months.
Probably. The ERG find effective action to get out of anything extremely difficult.
> > @TOPPING said:
>
> > Can we choose a new PM - and team around the PM - instead of those choices?
>
>
>
> > This is naive thinking of the highest order. What exactly would change if there was a new PM?
>
>
>
> > KAPOWWW!!!
>
>
> > Mark Francois is now PM. What would change? What would he do to solve this?
>
>
>
> I think that the biggest change is that the impotence and paralysis would then be a source of relief rather than a source of frustration.
>
> What were you saying about an improved site?
> "It's tidier, seems to cope with the blockquote rather well and .."
Yep, not that tidy after all.
> > @Ploppikins said:
> > Don't get why people call them CHUK? The proper acronym is CUK. Or is it because Chukka Umunna is a founding member? Genuinely curious.
>
> Chuka has clearly done it deliberately, it is Emmanuel Macron/En Marche all over again*
>
> * Though probably not nearly as successful.
I actually never realised the en marche link!! Wow the ego on some people!
> > @geoffw said:
> > > @TOPPING said:
> >
> > > Can we choose a new PM - and team around the PM - instead of those choices?
> >
> >
> >
> > > This is naive thinking of the highest order. What exactly would change if there was a new PM?
> >
> >
> >
> > > KAPOWWW!!!
> >
>
> >
> > > Mark Francois is now PM. What would change? What would he do to solve this?
> >
> >
> >
> > I think that the biggest change is that the impotence and paralysis would then be a source of relief rather than a source of frustration.
> >
> > What were you saying about an improved site?
> > "It's tidier, seems to cope with the blockquote rather well and .."
>
> Yep, not that tidy after all.
Use the Vanilla site!
> > @nico67 said:
> > Starmer if he’s going to resign won’t do it until after the local elections . Whether he joins Change UK though I’m doubtful .
> >
> > More likely he just resigns as Shadow Brexit Secretary . Whatever happens Corbyn needs to be challenged , he no longer can get away with thinking he walks on water .
> >
> > A future leadership challenge if Brexit hasn’t happened by then will be a big problem for him.
>
> I think someone should challenge this summer. Worth another roll of the dice.
Agreed but not sure who the likely challenger would be, needs to someone credible this time, Starmer or Watson seem best placed, if the desire for a female leader could be delayed again.
Cooper and Benn have an important role in the anti no deal lobby in parliament, they may see that as not worth risking for a leadership challenge.
I doubt Thornberry is ruthless enough to put the knife in and seems on board with the damage the Tories at any cost policy. Looking through the rest of the betfair list of contenders gives a mix of Corbyn loyalists, senior figures outside parliament, or people with low profile and experience. Jess Phillips has a profile and some strengths but doubt she would be competitive vs Corbyn. Stella Creasy at a push maybe?
> My default rule is that every upgrade/improvement on the internet reduces useful functionality by introducing complications and useless add on's whilst hiding/removing what was useful in the first place. Westlaw (an online legal resource) has recently proven this theory quite spectacularly.
>
> Is this Vanilla upgrade going to prove an exception? It's tidier, seems to cope with the blockquote rather well and has given us back a like button. What have they got wrong? There must be something.
It doesn't work on the main website. It makes no sense to have to find a different website when you are already on the website you want, just to make functionality work properly.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1123501670812606465?s=21
Good move, they need to do a comprehensive purge before the next leadership elections if they don't want to get Corbynized.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/david-lammy-inspired-me-to-stand-for-the-brexit-party/
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123493187165794304?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
This won't get through Parliament.
Labour MPs won't go for it without a second referendum and most Tories won't sign up to a CU as they'd be looking at a SLAB style wipeout to the Brexit Party across England at the next general election.
Presumably when all avenues are defeated and the Tories are wiped out at the EU elections Theresa May will finally resign?
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1123501670812606465?s=21
Once they've expelled all their Brexit supporting members they can hold their next party conference in a phone box...
> Don't get why people call them CHUK? The proper acronym is CUK. Or is it because Chukka Umunna is a founding member? Genuinely curious.
The non-narcissistic answer would be that 'Ch' is the matching sound, so that whereas CUK reads unintuitively as 'KUK', ChUK gives the correct immediate impression.
> It seems that there will be some pretty extraordinary Lib Dem results tomorrow. In places where they are actually fighting, I'm hearing that the Tories are facing wipe out. I don't think it is universal, so the Tories may be able to clutch at a few straws, but I imagine it is squeeky bum time over at CCHQ. Of course if the Lib Dems do come out of the locals on a high, then it gives them a pretty strong platform for the Euros...
>
> In our district it looks like Labour and the Lib Dems will win a handful of seats off the Conservatives, though the latter will still have a strong majority. What's most interesting is the way the votes are falling - Labour seem to be winning the Worcester Woman vote (suburban areas in prosperous towns) while the Lib Dems are winning the affluent rural vote.
If only they had some proper politicians arguing their cause during two elections rather than Vince on a retirement lunch.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123493187165794304?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
>
> This won't get through Parliament.
>
> Labour MPs won't go for it without a second referendum and most Tories won't sign up to a CU as they'd be looking at a SLAB style wipeout to the Brexit Party across England at the next general election.
>
> Presumably when all avenues are defeated and the Tories are wiped out at the EU elections Theresa May will finally resign?
It is incredible that being in a customs union has become such a terrible thing that you would get an easier ride proposing child killing.
Historians will marvel at how half the country went mad in 2019.
> Prediction: Starmer will not resign before 10pm tomorrow.
>
> 1. It would provide a massive media distraction from what Labour wants, immediately before the local elections, and land all the blame on him.
> 2. Apart from Milne's rather Soviet monitoring of Starmer's interview earlier this week, there's no great reason for him to resign <I>now</I>.
> 3. Brexit talks are ongoing and the sort of thing Starmer is well suited to. His resignation could land him with the blame from both Con and Lab sides for a breakdown in those talks.
>
> (As an aside, Labour's ambiguous EURef2 policy makes sense when seen in the context of those talks, as (1) a referendum has to be a card in that game, and (2) if a deal is reached, the last thing either side wants is to have to defend it in a public vote against the many zealots on both extremes).
>
> 4. Starmer has put up with all sorts of changes to Labour's Brexit policy over the last three years, from the leader / his office, from the NEC, the shadow cabinet, and conference - and has lived with them all. Again, why would he resign now, over a non-decision that actually gives him personally more space to define Labour's policy?
>
> Also, Chapman is, not to put too fine a point on it, not entirely reliable in his judgement and not without an interest in the game.
It depends what Starmer's goal would be for resigning, of course.
If he *were* to be taking a different path, then stiffing Corbyn might be best served by resigning about now.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123493187165794304?s=20
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
> >
> > This won't get through Parliament.
> >
> > Labour MPs won't go for it without a second referendum and most Tories won't sign up to a CU as they'd be looking at a SLAB style wipeout to the Brexit Party across England at the next general election.
> >
> > Presumably when all avenues are defeated and the Tories are wiped out at the EU elections Theresa May will finally resign?
>
> It is incredible that being in a customs union has become such a terrible thing that you would get an easier ride proposing child killing.
>
> Historians will marvel at how half the country went mad in 2019.
If Theresa May hadn't spent two years telling the nation that Brexit means leaving SM and CU she might have got away with it (and lets not forget Cameron's junk mail drop which also specifically threatened to leave SM and CU if we voted to leave)
Unfortunately for May and the Tories everyone now associates Brexit with leaving SM and CU and failure to do so creates a betrayal narrative which the Brexit Party are just waiting to exploit.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123493187165794304?s=20
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123497693446332416?s=20
> >
> > This won't get through Parliament.
> >
> > Labour MPs won't go for it without a second referendum and most Tories won't sign up to a CU as they'd be looking at a SLAB style wipeout to the Brexit Party across England at the next general election.
> >
> > Presumably when all avenues are defeated and the Tories are wiped out at the EU elections Theresa May will finally resign?
>
> It is incredible that being in a customs union has become such a terrible thing that you would get an easier ride proposing child killing.
>
> Historians will marvel at how half the country went mad in 2019.
Perhaps naively I think it would get through parliament based on the indicative votes plus the cabinet vote and Corbyn loyalists. I guess if Hunt and/or Javid left cabinet to oppose it that could stop it.
> Starmer leaving would be a significant blow to Labour.
> But it would be absolutely disastrous to the Remain/People's Vote cause.
> For one thing, they'd lose much of their influence in Labour.
>
> For another, the greater the splinter that leaves for CHUK, the greater the harm it will do to Labour's electoral prospects. If the Tories win a majority in a subsequent GE, then they will be able to get hard Brexit/No Deal through after all.
Quite. I'd like to see Starmer join the Watson group. This could be a bit like ERG with its own policies and whipping arrangements, but much larger and more effective. It would be the deal maker/breaker in parliament and would insist on a PV.
How confident are they that they would win a referendum?
Even if they win how confident are they that remain would be the settled answer to the question for the next 10-20 years?
If they have doubts about those, and understand that a no-deal Brexit is a level of risk far above soft Brexit they are being very irresponsible.
If they dont have doubts then they are making the same miscalculations the ERG made last year.
> James Chapman once claimed HMG had had him kidnapped and tortured up by Greek authorities... So lets just say making him the basis of a thread header is... "Interesting"
Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
> James Chapman once claimed HMG had had him kidnapped and tortured up by Greek authorities... So lets just say making him the basis of a thread header is... "Interesting"
He tweets about receiving death threats that the police (for some reason) refuse to investigate, and accused Isabel Oakeshott of inciting people to threaten him.
I think he has issues.
Sir John getting a big hunk o' psephological love.
Given his prior career outside (and indeed having to be fairly neutral from) politics, I'd imagine he feels less attachment to Labour as an institution, and less of a need to hang around and try to fix it from the inside.
I detect a feeling among the Watsonites of "hang on, this is our party, not Corbyn's.. why the hell should *we* leave?"
On the other hand.. the same "effective middle manager" vibe gives Starmer an air of not seeming so bothered about it - perhaps the idea of being a Cabinet minister in three months if he holds his nerve appeals.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-most-evasive-conservative-pm-when-answering-questions-11708313
<i>A team finds the PM answers just 27% of questions in interviews - worse than David Cameron, John Major and Margaret Thatcher.</i>
Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
He undersold it. The deal for the NHS that May announced was W-A-Y more:
"I can tell you that what I'm announcing will mean that in 2023-24 there will be about £600m a week, more in cash, going into the NHS.
"That will be through the Brexit dividend. The fact that we're no longer sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU once we leave the EU."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44495598
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
It's a good example of the limitations of renewable energy.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1123501670812606465?s=21
Wouldn't it be quicker to ask Tory members who aren't supporting the Brexit Party to get in touch?
I guess suspension means they still collect subscriptions, whereas with expulsion they don't.
> @Theuniondivvie said:
> Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
>
> He undersold it. The deal for the NHS that May announced was W-A-Y more:
>
> "I can tell you that what I'm announcing will mean that in 2023-24 there will be about £600m a week, more in cash, going into the NHS.
>
> "That will be through the Brexit dividend. The fact that we're no longer sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU once we leave the EU."
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44495598
& the band played believe it if you like.
'It means the £114bn budget will rise by an average of 3.4% annually - but that is still less than the 3.7% average rise the NHS has had since 1948.'
> It surprises me how many people/politicians would veto a soft Brexit in the hope of a referendum.
>
> How confident are they that they would win a referendum?
> Even if they win how confident are they that remain would be the settled answer to the question for the next 10-20 years?
>
> If they have doubts about those, and understand that a no-deal Brexit is a level of risk far above soft Brexit they are being very irresponsible.
>
> If they dont have doubts then they are making the same miscalculations the ERG made last year.
It depends on the circumstances but I'd say winning a referendum would be maybe 60%, and that remaining the answer for 10 years would be 95%, and 20 years 85%. If the referendum is Deal vs Remain then they only have upside compared to just Deal, except for reducing the likelihood of rejoin. But it's hard to rejoin fast anyhow, since the whole EU has to ratify an accession treaty, so there's not much of a loss there.
On the other side you have to count the possibility of somebody blundering into No Deal, which is probably something like 10%, which is definitely cause to be very afraid. However the bit after the deal is also quite fraught so even if you pass it there's a reasonable chance you end up with a Car Crash outcome at the end of the transition period.
Just looking at that and I can see why a rational Remainer might go either way. But then when you look at the *political* situation, Remainers would hate them if they voted the thing through while Leavers will accuse them of betrayal no matter what they do, so it's a pretty simple calculation for opposition MPs unless their seats are highly leavey.
> Theresa May tops the charts
>
> https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-most-evasive-conservative-pm-when-answering-questions-11708313
>
> <i>A team finds the PM answers just 27% of questions in interviews - worse than David Cameron, John Major and Margaret Thatcher.</i>
That's Home Office training for you. About the only thing that they are good at.
> > @david_herdson said:
> > Prediction: Starmer will not resign before 10pm tomorrow.
> >
> > 1. It would provide a massive media distraction from what Labour wants, immediately before the local elections, and land all the blame on him.
> > 2. Apart from Milne's rather Soviet monitoring of Starmer's interview earlier this week, there's no great reason for him to resign <I>now</I>.
> > 3. Brexit talks are ongoing and the sort of thing Starmer is well suited to. His resignation could land him with the blame from both Con and Lab sides for a breakdown in those talks.
> >
> > (As an aside, Labour's ambiguous EURef2 policy makes sense when seen in the context of those talks, as (1) a referendum has to be a card in that game, and (2) if a deal is reached, the last thing either side wants is to have to defend it in a public vote against the many zealots on both extremes).
> >
> > 4. Starmer has put up with all sorts of changes to Labour's Brexit policy over the last three years, from the leader / his office, from the NEC, the shadow cabinet, and conference - and has lived with them all. Again, why would he resign now, over a non-decision that actually gives him personally more space to define Labour's policy?
> >
> > Also, Chapman is, not to put too fine a point on it, not entirely reliable in his judgement and not without an interest in the game.
>
> It depends what Starmer's goal would be for resigning, of course.
>
> If he *were* to be taking a different path, then stiffing Corbyn might be best served by resigning about now.
How would the resignation of one, already fairly detached, member of Labour's Shadow Cabinet 'stiff' Corbyn, when the resignation of virtually all of them, immediately after Corbyn's inaction probably lost the referendum for Remain, didn't?
People should be getting behind them if stopping Brexit is their priority. That they are not doing so says to me that their real opposition is not to Brexit but to Jeremy Corbyn. Fine - so stop pretending then.
I know the Tories have a “cooling off” period after you join before you can vote for leader. Does this also apply on coming back from suspension?
Even if it’s only while suspended you can’t vote that’ll impact the next leader choice
> On the subject of Claire Fox and would the good folk of the NW vote for this diddy, is there any analysis of how individual candidates influence votes in party list elections? Outside Farage & possibly Stone Island Tommy, I find it hard to imagine voters being strongly influenced by individual candidates.
I appreciate that what she said is quite an extreme philosophical position to take, but I'd only be really annoyed if she said that it wasn't okay for the loyalist paramilitaries to do the same.
> In other news our massive investment in wind power is today (and yesterday) producing 0.51% of our energy needs. We've even had to stick a block of coal into the boiler.
> https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
>
> It's a good example of the limitations of renewable energy.
While solar power is currently generating 11.03% of our power needs. It's a good example of the way in which the two forms of renewable energy complement one another.
> It surprises me how many people/politicians would veto a soft Brexit in the hope of a referendum.
>
> How confident are they that they would win a referendum?
> Even if they win how confident are they that remain would be the settled answer to the question for the next 10-20 years?
>
> If they have doubts about those, and understand that a no-deal Brexit is a level of risk far above soft Brexit they are being very irresponsible.
>
> If they dont have doubts then they are making the same miscalculations the ERG made last year.
Brexit has offered a masterclass in how to act on miscalculations. Even Farage, who's made fewer mistakes than most - largely because he's had fewer decisions to make than most - shut up shop too early and had to launch an entirely new party in order to mitigate the risk of Brexit being reversed.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
> >
> > He undersold it. The deal for the NHS that May announced was W-A-Y more:
> >
> > "I can tell you that what I'm announcing will mean that in 2023-24 there will be about £600m a week, more in cash, going into the NHS.
> >
> > "That will be through the Brexit dividend. The fact that we're no longer sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU once we leave the EU."
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44495598
>
> & the band played believe it if you like.
>
> 'It means the £114bn budget will rise by an average of 3.4% annually - but that is still less than the 3.7% average rise the NHS has had since 1948.'
More significantly, over the next ten years the Baby boomers reach retirement age, the oldest are 73 already. As I have posted before, the expansion of the UK population over the next decade is almost exclusively of the elderly, with consequent demand on the NHS. A need for ramped up spending on health, social care and pensions is built into our demographics.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/978302412363624448?s=19
> > @DavidL said:
> > In other news our massive investment in wind power is today (and yesterday) producing 0.51% of our energy needs. We've even had to stick a block of coal into the boiler.
> > https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
> >
> > It's a good example of the limitations of renewable energy.
>
> While solar power is currently generating 11.03% of our power needs. It's a good example of the way in which the two forms of renewable energy complement one another.
Both are unreliable compared to tidal.....
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
> >
> > He undersold it. The deal for the NHS that May announced was W-A-Y more:
> >
> > "I can tell you that what I'm announcing will mean that in 2023-24 there will be about £600m a week, more in cash, going into the NHS.
> >
> > "That will be through the Brexit dividend. The fact that we're no longer sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU once we leave the EU."
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44495598
>
> & the band played believe it if you like.
>
> 'It means the £114bn budget will rise by an average of 3.4% annually - but that is still less than the 3.7% average rise the NHS has had since 1948.'
Was that the argument you were making against Boris' bus slogan? No, thought not....
> > @DavidL said:
> > In other news our massive investment in wind power is today (and yesterday) producing 0.51% of our energy needs. We've even had to stick a block of coal into the boiler.
> > https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
> >
> > It's a good example of the limitations of renewable energy.
>
> While solar power is currently generating 11.03% of our power needs. It's a good example of the way in which the two forms of renewable energy complement one another.
I am staggered by how much of our energy is coming from solar these days. I am almost suspicious that it is an estimate rather than measured and in fairness Gridwatch itself points that out indicating that there should be a bigger dip in demand at midday if it was accurate.
Even if that is the case at the margins the quantity of solar energy produced in this damp and slightly dismal (on average) Isle is remarkable and surprisingly cost effective. It will be fascinating to see how high it can get this summer.
> Struggling to rationalize Remainer hostility to Labour's Brexit strategy. They are blocking Brexit in parliament and will continue to do so until a general election becomes unavoidable. At that point they will seek to win it with a commitment to a referendum. They are thus the big - the only - hope for Remain.
>
> People should be getting behind them if stopping Brexit is their priority. That they are not doing so says to me that their real opposition is not to Brexit but to Jeremy Corbyn. Fine - so stop pretending then.
They don't trust Corbyn (understandably in view of his voting record). They think that if he sees it as being to his advantage for Brexit to go through, he'll let it go through.
> > @FeersumEnjineeya said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > In other news our massive investment in wind power is today (and yesterday) producing 0.51% of our energy needs. We've even had to stick a block of coal into the boiler.
> > > https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
> > >
> > > It's a good example of the limitations of renewable energy.
> >
> > While solar power is currently generating 11.03% of our power needs. It's a good example of the way in which the two forms of renewable energy complement one another.
>
> Both are unreliable compared to tidal.....
... but have the advantage of actually existing.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
>
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
>
> > > @Theuniondivvie said:
>
> > > Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
>
> > >
>
> > > He undersold it. The deal for the NHS that May announced was W-A-Y more:
>
> > >
>
> > > "I can tell you that what I'm announcing will mean that in 2023-24 there will be about £600m a week, more in cash, going into the NHS.
>
> > >
>
> > > "That will be through the Brexit dividend. The fact that we're no longer sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU once we leave the EU."
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44495598
>
> >
>
> > & the band played believe it if you like.
>
> >
>
> > 'It means the £114bn budget will rise by an average of 3.4% annually - but that is still less than the 3.7% average rise the NHS has had since 1948.'
>
>
>
> More significantly, over the next ten years the Baby boomers reach retirement age, the oldest are 73 already. As I have posted before, the expansion of the UK population over the next decade is almost exclusively of the elderly, with consequent demand on the NHS. A need for ramped up spending on health, social care and pensions is built into our demographics.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/978302412363624448
>
>
>
> What happened from 1998 to about 2004? There’s way fewer teenagers in 2016 than there should be!
Gen X not having kids - all me me me me me.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1123501670812606465
>
>
>
> Interesting
>
> I know the Tories have a “cooling off” period after you join before you can vote for leader. Does this also apply on coming back from suspension?
>
> Even if it’s only while suspended you can’t vote that’ll impact the next leader choice
No, the qualification is three months' membership, so new members can't vote for three months after joining but formerly suspended members can vote as soon as the suspension ends (assuming that the other qualifying criteria are met).
> @Theuniondivvie said:
> Boris claimed that Brexit would give £350m a week to the NHS, and he's been the subject of loads of thread headers.
>
> He undersold it. The deal for the NHS that May announced was W-A-Y more:
>
> "I can tell you that what I'm announcing will mean that in 2023-24 there will be about £600m a week, more in cash, going into the NHS.
>
> "That will be through the Brexit dividend. The fact that we're no longer sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU once we leave the EU."
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44495598
If you are reduced to advancing arguments as embarrassing as that, it really is time to give in to your inner Remainer. If I said to you that I propose to give you £1m out of my winnings on the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup, would you view that as evidence that I must be the world's most amazing tipster?
> Struggling to rationalize Remainer hostility to Labour's Brexit strategy. They are blocking Brexit in parliament and will continue to do so until a general election becomes unavoidable. At that point they will seek to win it with a commitment to a referendum. They are thus the big - the only - hope for Remain.
>
> People should be getting behind them if stopping Brexit is their priority. That they are not doing so says to me that their real opposition is not to Brexit but to Jeremy Corbyn. Fine - so stop pretending then.
If Leavers will not vote Labour if it opposes Brexit, why should Remainers vote Labour if it supports Brexit? Perhaps I have the wrong end of the stick but as I understand it Labour is only committing to a referendum on a horrible Tory Brexit. So if it fought and won a general election on a pro-Brexit ticket it would implement its own form of lovely Brexit without a referendum. That is a policy I can't support, and it has SFA to do with my views on Corbyn (which I would characterise as scepticism rather than outright hostility).