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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If winning the Euro elections had been a good general election predictor William Hague would have become Prime Minister in 2001
This is starting to feel a bit tiresome those people taking European election voting intention polls and seeking them to apply to a general election. Sure the Tory shares down to 13% are terrible but history suggests that this is not a guide to any General Election outcome.
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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1123945950903459840?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123905976720084998
> ..
Change UK affiliated with the EPP, so they see themselves as Centre Right?
That doesn't make up for using the ugly portmanteau in their party name, however.
As soon as the Leave/Remain duality collapses, so does their vote.
As Harry Cole said weeks ago, either party can chase a majority, and the first to do so might win, but for both it means abandoning some of their traditional vote
I presume ALDE wouldn’t have them as they are too LIDL!
The Tories will be humiliated in both unless they ditch May, ditch her abysmal deal and get themselves a non Brexit political agenda that is relevant to lives the majority of the electorate actually lead.
> ..
So in the end someone did go "over the cliff"... And it was the Tories poll rating?
> I’ve been out of the country the last few days, has anything important happened in British politics in the last 48 hours or so?
Not much.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/britons-more-sold-on-immigration-benefits-than-other-europeans
But possibly misleading: When I was living in Italy plenty of people complained to me about "immigrants", but when I pointed out that I was an immigrant they all said "no, you are from the EU, I mean people coming from outside the EU".
Here in Germany, a lot of people have similar attitudes - immigrants means people from outside the EU - I don't think many British people think that way, which could explain some of this polling.
> Heresy!
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123905976720084998
Someone has been smoking too much wacky baccy. If she survives the local and Euro elections and the party conference, she will face another VONC is December. She’ll be gone by then at the latest. Could go sooner if the DUP think there is a chance her Brexit deal might pass and decide to pull the plug in another Labour VONC. She is clearly intent on getting her deal through even if it destroys the Tory Party and leads to a Corbyn Gov. Tory Project Fear about the Corbyn threat will sound pretty hollow as May, Hammond, Lidlington, Gauke etc are clearly prepared to see it happen.
> 18th.
Fake news!
> The Conservatives' problem is not the polling for the EU elections, or even the polling for future Westminster elections. The Conservatives' problem is that there is absolutely no way to turn that polling round that isn't going to bust the party wide apart.
>
> Not sure they care anymore. Most of them are pursuing their own persona agenda
agenda? or agendas?
I do think the unravelling of the EU, when it happens, is going to be quite ugly. We've seen even what happens to the body politics following a free and fair referendum from just one member state. When the whole house of cards comes crashing down, a war is eminently possible.
(Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet and Sajid Javid to be her replacement, but you know my legendary modesty.)
> https://twitter.com/speakerpelosi/status/1123967382450515976?s=21
I hadn't realised she had moved from the legislative to judicial branch.
> Mr. Kamski, Germany being pro-EU is pretty easy to understand. They benefit from a permanently artificially weakened currency which boosts their exports, with no cost to themselves. There's also (no idea how strong this is now) been a desire to turn the page from postwar guilt.
>
> I do think the unravelling of the EU, when it happens, is going to be quite ugly. We've seen even what happens to the body politics following a free and fair referendum from just one member state. When the whole house of cards comes crashing down, a war is eminently possible.
Since this is a betting site, what odds would you attach to eminently possible?
Malta 🇲🇹 +5,2%
Ireland 🇮🇪 +4,1%
Slovakia 🇸🇰 +4,1%
What do you think "the whole house of cards crashing down" means in practice? What would people be fighting over, with what means, and with what objectives?
> Mr. Kamski, Germany being pro-EU is pretty easy to understand. They benefit from a permanently artificially weakened currency which boosts their exports, with no cost to themselves. There's also (no idea how strong this is now) been a desire to turn the page from postwar guilt.
>
> I do think the unravelling of the EU, when it happens, is going to be quite ugly. We've seen even what happens to the body politics following a free and fair referendum from just one member state. When the whole house of cards comes crashing down, a war is eminently possible.
Germans have been pro-EU since before the Euro, in fact the Euro has made the EU less popular in Germany, so I disagree with your point about Germans being pro-EU because of an artificially weakened currency.
I do think resolving contradictions at the heart of the common currency is important for the EU.
Brexit is damaging, but bigger potential problems are what happens now for example in Hungary (Italy I'm assuming will muddle through somehow).
Of course, somewhat ironically, it was the UK that was a big advocate of (too?) quick eastward expansion of the EU
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/speakerpelosi/status/1123967382450515976?s=21
>
> I hadn't realised she had moved from the legislative to judicial branch.
Theresa May setting worldwide trends.
Common knowledge in my local Corals.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > https://twitter.com/speakerpelosi/status/1123967382450515976?s=21
> >
> > I hadn't realised she had moved from the legislative to judicial branch.
>
> Theresa May setting worldwide trends.
I don't think May has accused anyone of a crime. In her letter she said he was being fired because of his conduct during the investigation.
Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
> I’ve been out of the country the last few days, has anything important happened in British politics in the last 48 hours or so?
If the measure is whether Lord Falconer has resigned, then no.....
When it does, I'd say civil disturbance is inevitable. A war perhaps something like 50/50.
Mr. Glenn, the Roman Empire was very popular in Gaul. People were also content with the Carolingian Empire.
Yet within a century or so of Charlemagne's death, his territories were divided and, in Western Francia, fragmenting to a very significant degree.
This notion that confederacies or nations just go on and on and on is complacent. It's entirely possible I'm wrong and the EU will have far greater longevity. But compare the map of Europe now to that of 1950. Or 1900. Borders can and do change. In modern terms, the EU is on a path of ever deepening integration (partly for functional and partly for ideological reasons). That puts it on a collision course with national identity and accountable democracy.
If we look 40 years to the future, questions I'd raise would be about the degree of political integration and the difficulty disentangling that, division of liabilities and assets, the role of a pan-EU army (which a few years ago Clegg described as a fantasy...), whether Turkey and/or Russia might nip in for some territorial annexation.
> https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
> Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
I suppose that's WHY the new requirements have been made!
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/speakerpelosi/status/1123967382450515976?s=21
> > >
> > > I hadn't realised she had moved from the legislative to judicial branch.
> >
> > Theresa May setting worldwide trends.
>
> I don't think May has accused anyone of a crime. In her letter she said he was being fired because of his conduct during the investigation.
Indeed, exactly the opposite. She has declared "the matter closed." And no need for any further investigation. Thereby indicating she has decided no crime was committed.
Not really her call.
> I’ve been out of the country the last few days, has anything important happened in British politics in the last 48 hours or so?
A Lib Dem candidate was spotted pointing at a pothole.
> https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
> Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
Don’t see anything wrong with voter ID myself. Only Corbyn and his mates could want a system that allows another Tower Hamlets.
> https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
> Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
Voter ID plans are not "dangerous".
Jeremy, "dangerous" are the people you are happy to sit down with and treat as political allies.....
He says absence of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party could boost Conservative hopes
Polling expert adds the lack of UKIP candidates will also benefit Theresa May"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6983161/Tories-ESCAPE-local-election-mauling-Farages-Brexit-party-not-ballot-paper.html
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > ..
>
> Change UK affiliated with the EPP, so they see themselves as Centre Right?
Fake news. No decision has been taken.
Tory losses? I'd guess around 700
Labour losses? I'd guess around 200
Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 550
Other (Including Green) gains i'd guess around 350
Any one else?
> The Brexit Party & UKIP would of course claim that OGH's last paragraph is incorrect. Brussels makes all the important decisions, according to them.
Of course, there they have a point. A lot of parliaments time is spent enacting measures that emanate from Brussels. About 75% of law studied at law school these days is EU law apparently. Common Law is sadly not very common these days.
> What do people think for the local results tonight?
>
> Tory losses? I'd guess around 750
> Labour losses? I'd guess around 100
> Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 650
> Other gains i'd guess around 200
>
> Any one else?
Labour should be making small gains.
> What do people think for the local results tonight?
>
> Tory losses? I'd guess around 750
> Labour losses? I'd guess around 100
> Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 650
> Other gains i'd guess around 200
>
> Any one else?
How many results are we expecting?
Regarding UKIP in 2014, they got 4.3m votes and retained most of them in GE2015. Getting carried away with seats not won in the GE is to gloss over the fact they got 12.6% of the vote, and about 100 2nd places, which would have been thought impossible 5 years earlier. It was also a big clue that Leave could win the referendum.
> > @Cicero said:
> > What do people think for the local results tonight?
> >
> > Tory losses? I'd guess around 750
> > Labour losses? I'd guess around 100
> > Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 650
> > Other gains i'd guess around 200
> >
> > Any one else?
>
> How many results are we expecting?
8.804 contests
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > What do people think for the local results tonight?
> > >
> > > Tory losses? I'd guess around 750
> > > Labour losses? I'd guess around 100
> > > Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 650
> > > Other gains i'd guess around 200
> > >
> > > Any one else?
> >
> > How many results are we expecting?
>
> 8.804 contests
That's 700 less than 2015 - why the discrepancy?
> "Sir John Curtice says there could be a silver lining for Tories in the local elections
> He says absence of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party could boost Conservative hopes
> Polling expert adds the lack of UKIP candidates will also benefit Theresa May"
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6983161/Tories-ESCAPE-local-election-mauling-Farages-Brexit-party-not-ballot-paper.html
Conversely, if the Tories lose 1000+ seats tonight, with no BP or UKIP candidates standing against them, they are really in trouble.
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > What do people think for the local results tonight?
> > > >
> > > > Tory losses? I'd guess around 750
> > > > Labour losses? I'd guess around 100
> > > > Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 650
> > > > Other gains i'd guess around 200
> > > >
> > > > Any one else?
> > >
> > > How many results are we expecting?
> >
> > 8.804 contests
>
> That's 700 less than 2015 - why the discrepancy?
Sorry I missed some words. I meant tonight (although the question of total results is also interesting)
(By interesting I mean for the sort of person who comments on PB)
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > The Brexit Party & UKIP would of course claim that OGH's last paragraph is incorrect. Brussels makes all the important decisions, according to them.
>
> Of course, there they have a point. A lot of parliaments time is spent enacting measures that emanate from Brussels. About 75% of law studied at law school these days is EU law apparently. Common Law is sadly not very common these days.
"About 75% of law studied at law school these days is EU law apparently."
How about a deal.
If you can demonstrate that statement is true, I will give £1,000 to a charity of your choice.
If you cannot, then you promise to stop making shit up.
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > What do people think for the local results tonight?
> > > >
> > > > Tory losses? I'd guess around 750
> > > > Labour losses? I'd guess around 100
> > > > Lib Dem gains I'd guess around 650
> > > > Other gains i'd guess around 200
> > > >
> > > > Any one else?
> > >
> > > How many results are we expecting?
> >
> > 8.804 contests
>
> That's 700 less than 2015 - why the discrepancy?
One reason is that several authorities have merged
> > @kinabalu said:
> > 18th.
>
> Fake news!
:-)
But with no intention to mislead. An honest mistake.
On topic. Gavin Williamson has not, based on what we know, broken the law and there will quite rightly be no court case. He was not sacked for betraying state secrets. He was sacked for behaving like Gavin Williamson.
As it happens, I am not especially outraged by this 'scandal'. What he leaked (if it really was him and not Jeremy Hunt) was tittle-tattle designed to make him look patriotic and robust, i.e. to appear to be what in his eyes he is.
He must be a shocked and angry man right now.
There are new unitaries in Somerset and Suffolk too - not sure how that's affected the tally.
<i>Hey Robert,
Our devs have figured out what caused the problem and are in the process of creating/applying a fix. I'll reach out to our support dev team today and see if I can get a more specific ETA.
Thank you for your patience.
</i>
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1123979637024071685
> > @Chelyabinsk said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
>
>
>
> Don’t see anything wrong with voter ID myself. Only Corbyn and his mates could want a system that allows another Tower Hamlets.
>
> I showed my driving licence this morning. Not a problem. Interestingly they're not having voter ID for the euros.
I went to vote today without my polling card. I offered them ID and was told it was not needed. I live in a very safe Labour ward, so it is unlikley to be a competitive ward. I voted LD as a protest against Brexit. I know of two others who usually vote Tory who did the same as i did. Hopefully others i know who usually vote Tory will do likewise as i feel remain inclined Tories have been taken for granteed!
> Mr. Divvie, I don't think the EU will cease to be for decades.
>
> When it does, I'd say civil disturbance is inevitable. A war perhaps something like 50/50.
>
> Mr. Glenn, the Roman Empire was very popular in Gaul. People were also content with the Carolingian Empire.
>
> Yet within a century or so of Charlemagne's death, his territories were divided and, in Western Francia, fragmenting to a very significant degree.
>
> This notion that confederacies or nations just go on and on and on is complacent. It's entirely possible I'm wrong and the EU will have far greater longevity. But compare the map of Europe now to that of 1950. Or 1900. Borders can and do change. In modern terms, the EU is on a path of ever deepening integration (partly for functional and partly for ideological reasons). That puts it on a collision course with national identity and accountable democracy.
>
> If we look 40 years to the future, questions I'd raise would be about the degree of political integration and the difficulty disentangling that, division of liabilities and assets, the role of a pan-EU army (which a few years ago Clegg described as a fantasy...), whether Turkey and/or Russia might nip in for some territorial annexation.
I think that is an excellent analysis. But it's also worth noting that many states - even moderately successful ones - cannot be reasonably described as nation states.
The UK - with the its separatist Scots, funny speaking Welsh, and rebellious Northern Irish - might fall into that category. You could make a similar (albeit different cases) about France, Spain, Canada. Switzerland and Belgium fail most of the tests for being Nation States, but both have lasted quite a long time, and show no sign of breaking up.
There's probably a two-thirds chance that the EU ceases to continue in its current fashion in some way in the next 50 years. But how it breaks up is another matter: will it end up with a dozen states with little in common? Will it return to a common market type system? Or will a core become something looking rather more like an actual country?
Who knows? And some of the threats to it, might also drive integration. Necessity is usually the mother of integration - Scotland joined the UK because it was frankly bust and needed bailing out - perhaps an external threat will force the EU together. Or perhaps money for politicians from Russia combined with external force will fissure it?
As I said, who knows?
This should rule serial adulterer Boris Johnson out as PM.
Update later...
> Mr. Kamski, Germany being pro-EU is pretty easy to understand. They benefit from a permanently artificially weakened currency which boosts their exports, with no cost to themselves. There's also (no idea how strong this is now) been a desire to turn the page from postwar guilt.
>
> I do think the unravelling of the EU, when it happens, is going to be quite ugly. We've seen even what happens to the body politics following a free and fair referendum from just one member state. When the whole house of cards comes crashing down, a war is eminently possible.
>
> But nobody in Europe wants the EU to collapse. Even in the UK opinion is flowing in the EU's direction.
Well, that's not true. Vladimir Putin would much rather have a collection of small quarelling countries on Russia's doorstep, and he's spending money to try and encourage that.
> Tories only 3 points ahead of the LDs in the latest Euro poll.
>
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1123945950903459840?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
Only 21% of people who voted Conservative at GE 2017 say that they will vote Con in the Euro elections. Likewise only 32% of Lab voters at GE 2017 would vote Lab in the Euro elections.
The silver lining for the Conservatives is that even though the headline figures for voting at a GE have yet to be published, they can be implied from the reweighted totals at the top of the columns. GE voting is level pegging in the weighted sample at 311 Con against 309 Lab and 137 LD - the first time for a while that Lab has not been ahead. So maybe there is a germ of truth in the thread header.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
As an aside, Chris Wickham's The Inheritance of Rome deals with (amongst other things) the fall of the Western Empire and the rise, and then fall, of the Carolingian Empire. It's really rather good.
Just started tipping it down here.
> > @Chelyabinsk said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
>
>
>
> Don’t see anything wrong with voter ID myself. Only Corbyn and his mates could want a system that allows another Tower Hamlets.
>
> You respond to a story demonstrating exactly what is wrong with voter ID by saying you don't see anything wrong with it. What is wrong with it is that it prevents people who might have otherwise voted from voting. How much more wrong can it be than that?
How hard is it to take ID into a voting station ? People who are that keen to vote will go back with ID. I would have thought anyone with a genuine interest in democracy would want to prevent vote rigging such as occurred in Tower Hamlets.
Mixed feelings about the Euros, the senior ward councillor is first listed for Green on the regional ballot. Does further breaking up the band make up for the possibility of that most vicarious of PB thrills, a by-election in your ward.
> > @Chelyabinsk said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
>
>
>
> Don’t see anything wrong with voter ID myself. Only Corbyn and his mates could want a system that allows another Tower Hamlets.
>
> You respond to a story demonstrating exactly what is wrong with voter ID by saying you don't see anything wrong with it. What is wrong with it is that it prevents people who might have otherwise voted from voting. How much more wrong can it be than that?
Nonsense.. What Corbyn is on about is that it prevents people who are living in the black economy from voting. if so, its a good thing. No representation without taxation!! If you haven't got ID in this day and age, you do not deserve to vote.
It will affect Labour voters disproportionately, but that's because....
> > @Chelyabinsk said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
>
>
>
> Don’t see anything wrong with voter ID myself. Only Corbyn and his mates could want a system that allows another Tower Hamlets.
>
> You respond to a story demonstrating exactly what is wrong with voter ID by saying you don't see anything wrong with it. What is wrong with it is that it prevents people who might have otherwise voted from voting. How much more wrong can it be than that?
There is nothing wrong with voter ID, it is designed to stop voting fraud, and only an old fraud like Mr. Thicky could be against it. It is sad if an old lady is turned away, but that is not a reason to continue with a fundamentally flawed system.
If you want to vote, show your ID. Even a thick moron like Corbyn should be able to understand that simple message. How much simpler do you want it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gi5j7jjhm4M
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > The Brexit Party & UKIP would of course claim that OGH's last paragraph is incorrect. Brussels makes all the important decisions, according to them.
>
> Of course, there they have a point. A lot of parliaments time is spent enacting measures that emanate from Brussels. About 75% of law studied at law school these days is EU law apparently. Common Law is sadly not very common these days.
Only 12% of our law originates from the EU, and most of that is to do with trade. Even if we are out we are likely to be aligned with most of those laws so we can continue to sell widgets to a CE mark compliance standard. "The EU makes all our laws" rant is one of the biggest lies or misunderstandings told by advocates of Leave
> https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
The next head of state isn't truly British apparently...
> https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1123971032845561857?s=21
Brexiteers talking utter bollocks shock.