> @_Anazina_ said: > > @geoffw said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712 > > > > > > > > > > > > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused. > > > > 'They' is deliberately non-specific. > > I hope they will listen to me a immediately install Lauren Laverne and Katherine Ryan as coleaders in a benign duocracy, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Lauren Laverne has turned a perfectly entertaining mainly-indie breakfast show on Radio 6 into a can't-be-arsed-fest of dance bollocks. Not voting for her.
> @Cookie said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > @geoffw said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused. > > > > > > 'They' is deliberately non-specific. > > > > I hope they will listen to me a immediately install Lauren Laverne and Katherine Ryan as coleaders in a benign duocracy, while we figure out what the hell is going on. > > Lauren Laverne has turned a perfectly entertaining mainly-indie breakfast show on Radio 6 into a can't-be-arsed-fest of dance bollocks. Not voting for her.
And I loathe Katherine Ryan even more, come to think of it.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they mightbe “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd. > > > > They’ve blown it. > > > > It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna). > > I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others.
I must admit Wollaston and Heidi Allen are probbaly looking at the yellow spread in their counties and be wondering if another hop is needed. Soubry wont stand a chance in her Notts constituency under CUK or LD (or even Tory I suspect) come the next GE
It’s good to see the LDs recover. We need them back. I wonder if they are ready for the spotlight. Do they have policies? And are they committed to them? For example, what is their current position on tuition fees?
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
* excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712 > > > > > > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused. > > Have there been more focus groups? > > I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”... > > Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well.
Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories.
> @Charles said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Though in Euro-polling half the surviving Tory vote is remainers. You have to admire their loyalty, though wonder about their sanity!
> Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
>
> Have there been more focus groups?
>
> I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”...
>
> Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well.
Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories.
TBH I thought the Northern results (the bad ones) showed we were pushing too hard on remain, or at least for their liking.
I haven't expected Labour and Tories to reach a deal and I still don't. Labour have to approach the talks seriously though. Unless we are moving to a second referendum only position then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused. > > > > > > Have there been more focus groups? > > > > > > I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”... > > > > > > Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well. > > > > Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories. > > TBH I thought the Northern results (the bad ones) showed we were pushing too hard on remain, or at least for their liking. > > I haven't expected Labour and Tories to reach a deal and I still don't. Labour have to approach the talks seriously though. Unless we are moving to a second referendum only position then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached.
Bailing out the Tories pisses off both Remainers and those who want the Tories out, but go ahead, it is your party's funeral.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused. > > > > > > Have there been more focus groups? > > > > > > I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”... > > > > > > Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well. > > > > Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories. > > TBH I thought the Northern results (the bad ones) showed we were pushing too hard on remain, or at least for their liking. > > I haven't expected Labour and Tories to reach a deal and I still don't. Labour have to approach the talks seriously though. Unless we are moving to a second referendum only position then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached.
The problem is Labour is never going to be Brexity enough for those leavers, especially when you have Corbyn as leader. Why would someone who voted Brexit to 'get their country back' and is anti-immigration, vote for a party that will deliver a softer Brexit than the Tories and is led by a man one of whose more admirable characteristics (and you know I think he doesn't have that many) is sympathy for immigrants from the poorer and more troubled parts of the world?
'Leave' constituencies still contain a huge number of remain voters, to win Labour has to corral them into an electoral coalition that outweighs the Tory leave one. The Tories shambolic collapse has made that easier, but look at even the leave seats where Lab has done badly and you need to scoop up the Lib Dem/Green/Independent votes. Ambiguity proved disastrous and does anyone really think Labour can be an authentic Brexit party when the overwhelming majority of members and MPs strongly support remain?
Bailing out the Tories pisses off both Remainers and those who want the Tories out, but go ahead, it is your party's funeral.
I'm talking about Labour position rather than my own (which would prefer a second ref) if Labour say there is a form of Brexit they would be willing to back then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached between the parties which they would have to discuss if the government wanted.
There is a huge difference though between 'a Brexit deal can be reached' and 'a Brexit deal will be reached' which is why I haven't thought a deal would be reached.
Also think it could still be tight passing the commons even if they did make a deal.
Thinking back on yesterday, Labour's big problem is that up north our voters want Brexit and down south our voters want remain. No matter how much fudging of position goes on and for however long, there's no escaping the fact that half our voters want the exact opposite to the other half.
The only thing that unifies the two sides is a loathing of Corbyn
Everyone can see the media portraying these results as indicating a strong Remain sentiment. Those pondering whether to vote for the Brexit Party or another way, and who are of a Leave mindset, might end up backing Farage on the basis that whichever party wins will (or ought to, if the media are consistent...) dictate the EU/UK slant of the media narrative.
CUK is struggling with finding a balance between the desire to present something fresh and new as an approach to politics, to live up to their name, and the tribalism and old habits that their MPs have brought with them, particularly on the Labour side.
The SDP had the advantage that two of the founding four, if all experienced politicians, weren’t sitting in parliament at the time. The problem for CUK is that all of them have dirty hands from the current political mess and so far they haven’t managed to present anything by way of either policy or attitude that is particularly new. Their Euro candidate lists are a missed opportunity to offer something fresh, including far too many retread politicians and other minor celebrities in the leading positions.
The problem is Labour is never going to be Brexity enough for those leavers, especially when you have Corbyn as leader. Why would someone who voted Brexit to 'get their country back' and is anti-immigration, vote for a party that will deliver a softer Brexit than the Tories and is led by a man one of whose more admirable characteristics (and you know I think he doesn't have that many) is sympathy for immigrants from the poorer and more troubled parts of the world?
'Leave' constituencies still contain a huge number of remain voters, to win Labour has to corral them into an electoral coalition that outweighs the Tory leave one. The Tories shambolic collapse has made that easier, but look at even the leave seats where Lab has done badly and you need to scoop up the Lib Dem/Green/Independent votes. Ambiguity proved disastrous and does anyone really think Labour can be an authentic Brexit party when the overwhelming majority of members and MPs strongly support remain?
The idea isn't to win leavers by being leavey, the idea is not to kick leavers in the face and win them over on other areas. A large chunk of leave voters will have a whole bunch of different views which make them incompatible with Corbyn, the anti immigrant section being a prime example. Those who feel very strongly about immigrants are obviously beyond reach.
Within the huge leave vote will be those who prioritise services or maybe have some concerns about immigration but have that as secondary to other concerns. If we can fight Brexit to a draw with the Conservatives or only a slight loss we can win them over with other areas.
Going too strongly pro remain could put the section that are potential Labour right off.
I do agree with the analysis about lots of remain voters even in leave constituencies and I am pro second referendum myself but there is a good reason not to go too strongly in that direction.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Thinking back on yesterday, Labour's big problem is that up north our voters want Brexit and down south our voters want remain. No matter how much fudging of position goes on and for however long, there's no escaping the fact that half our voters want the exact opposite to the other half. > > The only thing that unifies the two sides is a loathing of Corbyn
You’d think that someone in that position might be able to see the upside of a referendum.
> @TheJezziah said: > Bailing out the Tories pisses off both Remainers and those who want the Tories out, but go ahead, it is your party's funeral. > > I'm talking about Labour position rather than my own (which would prefer a second ref) if Labour say there is a form of Brexit they would be willing to back then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached between the parties which they would have to discuss if the government wanted. > > There is a huge difference though between 'a Brexit deal can be reached' and 'a Brexit deal will be reached' which is why I haven't thought a deal would be reached. > > Also think it could still be tight passing the commons even if they did make a deal.
The wider problem for both leaders is that the making and attempted carrying of a deal is the moment that one or both major parties split, if it happens at all.
I love the way this morning's discussion comes over as: "This is what would be best for the party!" rather than "This is what would be best for the country!"
> @Foxy said: > > @Charles said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > Though in Euro-polling half the surviving Tory vote is remainers. You have to admire their loyalty, though wonder about their sanity!
They are people like my mother, soft remainers who don’t feel that strongly about Brexit but opt for the Tories out of loyalty and fear of Corbyn. You are right however that the Tory Euro voters are likely to be ascribed to the leave column by commentators, when the reality is that by Election Day it’ll probably be majority Remain. Treating it as mostly Remain is the easiest way to reconcile the VI and L/R polling.
O/T...... but might turnout to be a factor, with two-thirds of the N. Ireland seats declared, seems to be the Alliance which is the gainer, along with the Greens.
They are people like my mother, soft remainers who don’t feel that strongly about Brexit but opt for the Tories out of loyalty and fear of Corbyn. You are right however that the Tory Euro voters are likely to be ascribed to the leave column by commentators, when the reality is that by Election Day it’ll probably be majority Remain. Treating it as mostly Remain is the easiest way to reconcile the VI and L/R polling.
In fairness there are chunks in every party, plenty of Eurosceptic Lib Dems and Greens. I imagine a decent chunk of PB contributors would still vote for their party even if it had the opposite Brexit policy to them. I'd vote for a 'no deal Brexit' Labour party without hesitation.
O/T...... but might turnout to be a factor, with two-thirds of the N. Ireland seats declared, seems to be the Alliance which is the gainer, along with the Greens.
Good news, always like to see the Greens doing well and the Alliance usually come across as very sensible.
> FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
I think that NEV based on Local elections tends to overstate LDs, who are strong and under represent Greens, who have been limited in the past. They do over perform in PR elections though.
To take my example of Harborough, which roughly matches the council areas of Harborough (11 LDs of 34 Seats) and Oadby and Wigston (LDs 20 of 25 seats), yet in 2017 GE LDs polled a distant third, substantially behind Labour who only gained their first council seat in either council yesterday. Much as I would like to win the seat, it doesn't look easy. Harborough was very tight for Leave in the referendum at less than 51%.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Foxy said: > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
> > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
> @Foxy said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408 > > > > > > > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit. > > > > It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game. > > > > Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night. > > > > The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots. > > Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
Once you add Brexit party into the mix all sorts of results are plausible. 45% Tory vote shares could easily end up 30/15 or even 25/20 splits and LDs could win seats on a much lower vote share than previous elections.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit. > > > > > > > > It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game. > > > > > > > > Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night. > > > > > > > > The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots. > > > > Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all. > > Once you add Brexit party into the mix all sorts of results are plausible. 45% Tory vote shares could easily end up 30/15 or even 25/20 splits and LDs could win seats on a much lower vote share than previous elections.
If both main parties’ national vote is depressed toward 30%, it becomes easier for many seats to be won on lower percentages of the vote, introducing further capriciousness into how our voting system translates votes into seats.
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
* excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
Brilliant result for the Lib Dems. As their USP is simply being pro Remain you don't need a psephologist to work out why they did well. If a centrist grouping can organise themselves there are 16.5 million votes up for grabs. By default they might achieve what they've always promised and change the face of British politics. The perfect storm would be for the Tories to choose Boris and for Corbyn to stay on.
> @IanB2 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > > > It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game. > > > > > > > > > > > > Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night. > > > > > > > > > > > > The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots. > > > > > > Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all. > > > > Once you add Brexit party into the mix all sorts of results are plausible. 45% Tory vote shares could easily end up 30/15 or even 25/20 splits and LDs could win seats on a much lower vote share than previous elections. > > If both main parties’ national vote is depressed toward 30%, it becomes easier for many seats to be won on lower percentages of the vote, introducing further capriciousness into how our voting system translates votes into seats.
Depends how you look at it, it would also make the quality of individual candidates much more important in getting elected, an extra 5% personal vote could be key, which seems a good thing given the below quote on Grayling, Burgon et al.
Thinking back on yesterday, Labour's big problem is that up north our voters want Brexit and down south our voters want remain. No matter how much fudging of position goes on and for however long, there's no escaping the fact that half our voters want the exact opposite to the other half.
The only thing that unifies the two sides is a loathing of Corbyn
> @Foxy said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408 > > > > > > > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit. > > > > It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game. > > > > Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night. > > > > The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots. > > Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
There's a long way to go: even if the Government doesn't see out the year, there's still the European elections to come and all the fallout from those which, given the chaotic/paralysed state the main parties are in and the apparent volatility in the electorate, could be considerable. HOWEVER... even accounting for the rigidities inherent in the FPTP system, some kind of substantial shift at the next General Election does seem possible.
A Lib Dem comeback in the South would certainly be welcome. If this were to be mirrored by the Brexit Party doing a hatchet job on Northern Labour as well then so much the better. Both the Tories and Labour are clapped out and deserve to be punished: if we continue to have pendulum politics, in which ennui with one automatically translates into a majority for the other, no matter how useless that alternative is, then we'll never get anywhere.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they might be “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd. > > > > They’ve blown it. > > > > It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna). > > I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others.
It does seem as though the Tiggers (Change UK) have squandered their chances by making some very bad poiltical decisions. It's as though their mindset is still that of the two bigger parties, they need to think as a third (fourth, fifth?) party. They should ally tactically with the Lib Dems and Greens until PR is achieved or they will sink at the next GE.
> @El_Capitano said: > I just find it surprising that Orange Bookers are happy to enter local pacts with eco-socialists. > > > > Meanwhile us eco-socialists in Labour don't get the chance to do this with like-minded comrades in the Greens. > > The Orange Book tendency in the Lib Dems is dead. Clegg killed it. (Or rather, Clegg fronted the loathsome Danny Alexander killing it.) > > We are, basically, all social liberals now. The next leader is going to be Jo Swinson or Layla Moran and both are clearly social liberals. > > Personally I'm not far off an eco-socialist; certainly I'm an eco-social democrat. Corbyn is neither eco nor social democrat. Come and join the dark orange side.
A truly successful party of the centre has to find a way to accommodate both tendencies, or remain an irrelevance.
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
* excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
Brexit is the manifest symptom, not the cause: two parties who are not guided by what is in the best interests of the country and its people, and who are both clearly unfit to govern.
Dr. Foxy, with UKIP disintegrating electorally and the Brexit Party not standing, and Change UK not standing (significantly reducing vote-splitting amongst pro-Remain people), that made things pretty tasty for the Lib Dems, especially as both main parties are very unpopular.
The European elections will see the Brexit Party stand, giving an outlet for Leavers who don't like UKIP, and the Change UK Party will stand, splitting the Remain vote (although their impact may be diminished by the Lib Dems' helpful media narrative they're establishing as the biggest pro-Remain party).
> @logical_song said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they might be “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd. > > > > > > They’ve blown it. > > > > > > It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna). > > > > I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others. > > It does seem as though the Tiggers (Change UK) have squandered their chances by making some very bad poiltical decisions. It's as though their mindset is still that of the two bigger parties, they need to think as a third (fourth, fifth?) party. They should ally tactically with the Lib Dems and Greens until PR is achieved or they will sink at the next GE.
Yes, I too think they have missed their chance - and more critically spoiled the chances for someone else coming along and doing it properly. The SDP were the same, in the early days, with a parliamentary party fixed in the mindset of the old politics, but they were taught a salutary lesson by the 1983 GE. Meanwhile the SDP brought large numbers of new people into politics at the grassroots, which CUK so far doesn’t seem to be doing.
There is still, I guess, a chance of a major fracture in Labour and/or Tory, most likely in the event of a Brexit deal between them, which might give CUK a second chance.
Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
The Euro elections will be an interesting comparison when the Brexit Party and Chuka's commandos enter the fray. The LDs to beat the Brexit party? I can't see it.
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
* excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
Change in composition of turnout, for example.
The Euro elections will give a much better read on Brexit I think. You’ll have CUK, TBP and an election where potholes shouldn’t influence voting patterns
> @CD13 said: > The Euro elections will be an interesting comparison when the Brexit Party and Chuka's commandos enter the fray. The LDs to beat the Brexit party? I can't see it.
If Labour lost its Remain voters in the same way as the Tories their leavers, it would be perfectly possible. But it’s easier to be on a fence in opposition.
> @TheJezziah said: > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
> @Nigelb said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > I just find it surprising that Orange Bookers are happy to enter local pacts with eco-socialists. > > > > > > > > Meanwhile us eco-socialists in Labour don't get the chance to do this with like-minded comrades in the Greens. > > > > The Orange Book tendency in the Lib Dems is dead. Clegg killed it. (Or rather, Clegg fronted the loathsome Danny Alexander killing it.) > > > > We are, basically, all social liberals now. The next leader is going to be Jo Swinson or Layla Moran and both are clearly social liberals. > > > > Personally I'm not far off an eco-socialist; certainly I'm an eco-social democrat. Corbyn is neither eco nor social democrat. Come and join the dark orange side. > > A truly successful party of the centre has to find a way to accommodate both tendencies, or remain an irrelevance. > >
The mistake there is to assume the Lib Dems are centrist, rather than a (social) liberal party. While the Clegg hijacking experimented with Centrism, under tutelage of advisors who'd not been Lib Dems before 2010, the party is returning to its distinctive (and electoral successful) role as a progressive party. Centrism is by definition a tactical 'split the difference' rather than a positive set of values.
> @Jonathan said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though. > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him. > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
It may already be too late. It is hard to see how either Tory or Labour achieves a majority under our voting system by drawing most of their support only from one or other side on the referendum divide. Hence why Labour clings to its position on the fence, which is now starting to fall apart. As we move toward actual Brexit (or non-Brexit), it is hard to see these pressures weakening in the medium term; probably the reverse. 2016 may indeed have broken our party system.
> @TGOHF said: > Looks like the cabinet is still in denial. > > https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1124570535017558018 > > > > I think he’s probably right though. Lots of “ifs” though! > > How about “if Mrs May had talked to her MPs she would never have agreed to such a deal”. > > The delusion that watering down the deal until it passes is a good strategy for the long term is highly optimistic.
The only good strategy for the long term is abandoning Brexit altogether, but neither of the major parties fancies paying the short term political price.
> @TheJezziah said: > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359.
Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
> @Foxy said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad.
> @Casino_Royale said: > I've never seen OGH as excited.
The Sotheby's auction day of Bruce Forsyth's entire collection of hairpieces was a frenzy unknown to Clan Smithson since the Orpington Liberal by-election win in 1962 !! ....
> @IanB2 said: > Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem:
Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency.
OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though. > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him. > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late! > > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
> @Jonathan said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > > > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though. > > > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him. > > > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late! > > > > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends? > > My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms.
> @Roger said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden? > > Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad.
> @Roger said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > > > > > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though. > > > > > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him. > > > > > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late! > > > > > > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends? > > > > My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people. > > Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms.
If you make this about Corbyn, the cult will close ranks and nothing will change. Labour needs to change. So leave him in place, but find other ways to broaden appeal and move forward.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away. > > It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem: > > <blockquote>General Election 2017: South Cambridgeshire > Party Candidate Votes % ± > Conservative Heidi Allen 33,631 51.8 +0.7 > Labour Dan Greef 17,679 27.2 +9.6 > Liberal Democrat Susan van de Ven 12,102 18.6 +3.4 > Green Simon Saggers 1,512 2.3 −3.9 > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Cambridgeshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)</blockquote>; > > Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency. > > OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour.
Heidi has a very poor reputation with local Lib Dems, who won the local council in spectacular fashion last year. This is, in psrt, due to her election strategy which mostly consisted of wearing low cut blouses.
> @Foxy said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
A triumph for Remain means Remain parties winning, not Remain parties getting a strong third place.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Roger said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > > > > > > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > > > > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > > > > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > > > > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > > > > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > > > > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > > > > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > > > > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > > > > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden? > > > > Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad. > > Leave voters will say hello in three weeks' time.
Though London and Scotland get to vote too then; unlikely to be pretty for either main party.
> > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
> > >
> > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
> >
> > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
> >
> > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
> >
> > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
>
> My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms.
If the balance of power moves away from the Momentum types towards the Tories rest of the Labour movement then one wonders whether they’ll find a new home.
And if the Corbynistas maintain control who takes over?
> @Morris_Dancer said: > If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359. > > Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
If Corbyn goes for Brexit and a Customs Union then last night's results also show Labour will also suffer major damage and loss of votes to the LDs and Greens if it does not have a confirmatory referendum with a Remain option attached.
In that case May was absolutely right to drag Corbyn into the negotiations on the Brexit Deal that will be put before Parliament, she knows a Deal plus Customs Union might cost the Tories votes to abstentions and the Brexit Party but that will still be nothing like the damage the Tories are currently suffering from the fact we are still in the EU.
Deal plus Customs Union only lost by 3 votes in the indicative votes and was far closer to a majority than No Deal, EUre2 or revoke so if the Commons refuse to back the Deal plus Customs Union and May is Machiavellian enough to drag Corbyn down with her in order to get it through after which she can step down and hand over to a new Tory leader. Of course if the WA did not have the backstop attached as the Brady amendment being passed showed the Deal would have passed by now but that requires the EU to make a further concession which still looks unlikely
Thinking back on yesterday, Labour's big problem is that up north our voters want Brexit and down south our voters want remain. No matter how much fudging of position goes on and for however long, there's no escaping the fact that half our voters want the exact opposite to the other half.
The only thing that unifies the two sides is a loathing of Corbyn
Leaving Corbyn aside, the logical solution is to push for a soft Brexit both sides can live with.
> @Foxy said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
Independents also triumphed and did almost as well as the LDs and plenty of Brexiteers voted Independent last night if they bothered to vote at all.
If Labour or the LDs or CUK win the European elections and beat the Brexit Party or Labour and the LDs and Greens and SNP comfortably beat the Tories and Brexit Party and UKIP in the combined voteshare then you can claim a triumph for Remain but not yet
> @Foxy said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
We are told umpteen times a week that Labour Leave seats had a majority of Labour Remain voters backing those MPs. Well, similarly "Remain leaning areas" still have a shedload of Tories who voted for Brexit. They are the ones pissed off and who have gone on a voter strike. They turned out in 2015 on the same day to get a Cameron Govt. pledged to a referendum. They didn't turn out yesterday.
> @Fenman said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away. > > > > It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem: > > > > <blockquote>General Election 2017: South Cambridgeshire > > Party Candidate Votes % ± > > Conservative Heidi Allen 33,631 51.8 +0.7 > > Labour Dan Greef 17,679 27.2 +9.6 > > Liberal Democrat Susan van de Ven 12,102 18.6 +3.4 > > Green Simon Saggers 1,512 2.3 −3.9 > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Cambridgeshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)</blockquote>; > > > > Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency. > > > > OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour. > > Heidi has a very poor reputation with local Lib Dems, who won the local council in spectacular fashion last year. This is, in psrt, due to her election strategy which mostly consisted of wearing low cut blouses.
If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359.
Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
A minor setback, within hours of defeat at Wolf 359 Starfleet and the Federation won.
> @ThomasNashe said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Roger said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% ! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy ! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit! > > > > > > > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. * > > > > > > > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit > > > > > > > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed > > > > > > > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested? > > > > > > > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons. > > > > > > > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit > > > > > > > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like? > > > > > > > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden? > > > > > > Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad. > > > > Leave voters will say hello in three weeks' time. > > Though London and Scotland get to vote too then; unlikely to be pretty for either main party.
I'm sure it will be pretty grim for Con and Lab, the former especially.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play.
It is curious how many leavers are eagerly looking at the European elections to see what proportion of the current electorate support Brexit. If that is so important why not just ask the electorate what they want directly? I thought the views of the 2016 cohort were sacrosanct?
Barf, as said before this clown thinks his reason for being President is that he is homosexual, he is equivalent of Ruth Davidson , big mooth but nothing to say, no policies , no talent other than self promotion.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play. > > It is curious how many leavers are eagerly looking at the European elections to see what proportion of the current electorate support Brexit. If that is so important why not just ask the electorate what they want directly? I thought the views of the 2016 cohort were sacrosanct?
No Leavers want the EU elections to go ahead, but since they are going ahead, we'll use them to express our views.
It’s good to see the LDs recover. We need them back. I wonder if they are ready for the spotlight. Do they have policies? And are they committed to them? For example, what is their current position on tuition fees?
Or are they just the stop Brexit Party?
Opportunists , no principles and will sink when it comes to a real election and the people come out of their huff and there is something real at stake other than emptying bins.
Mr. Above, the media narrative has been to use the votes for the party that did, relatively, best to determine the public's position on the EU.
It seems natural that such will happen for the European elections.
Mr. Eagles, that is true. But the Borg were not defeated, and the Conservatives do not have the crew of the starship Enterprise to help. They don't even have the crew of Red Dwarf.
Comments
> > @geoffw said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
> >
> > 'They' is deliberately non-specific.
>
> I hope they will listen to me a immediately install Lauren Laverne and Katherine Ryan as coleaders in a benign duocracy, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Lauren Laverne has turned a perfectly entertaining mainly-indie breakfast show on Radio 6 into a can't-be-arsed-fest of dance bollocks. Not voting for her.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > > @geoffw said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
> > >
> > > 'They' is deliberately non-specific.
> >
> > I hope they will listen to me a immediately install Lauren Laverne and Katherine Ryan as coleaders in a benign duocracy, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
>
> Lauren Laverne has turned a perfectly entertaining mainly-indie breakfast show on Radio 6 into a can't-be-arsed-fest of dance bollocks. Not voting for her.
And I loathe Katherine Ryan even more, come to think of it.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they mightbe “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd.
> >
> > They’ve blown it.
> >
> > It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna).
>
> I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others.
I must admit Wollaston and Heidi Allen are probbaly looking at the yellow spread in their counties and be wondering if another hop is needed. Soubry wont stand a chance in her Notts constituency under CUK or LD (or even Tory I suspect) come the next GE
Or are they just the stop Brexit Party?
I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”...
If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
* excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
>
>
>
>
>
> Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
>
> Have there been more focus groups?
>
> I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”...
>
> Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well.
Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> >
>
> > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> >
>
> > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> >
>
> > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> >
>
> > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
>
>
>
> It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
>
> Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
>
> If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
>
> * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
Though in Euro-polling half the surviving Tory vote is remainers. You have to admire their loyalty, though wonder about their sanity!
I haven't expected Labour and Tories to reach a deal and I still don't. Labour have to approach the talks seriously though. Unless we are moving to a second referendum only position then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
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> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
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>
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> >
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> >
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> >
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> >
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> >
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> > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
>
> >
>
> > Have there been more focus groups?
>
> >
>
> > I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”...
>
> >
>
> > Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well.
>
>
>
> Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories.
>
> TBH I thought the Northern results (the bad ones) showed we were pushing too hard on remain, or at least for their liking.
>
> I haven't expected Labour and Tories to reach a deal and I still don't. Labour have to approach the talks seriously though. Unless we are moving to a second referendum only position then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached.
Bailing out the Tories pisses off both Remainers and those who want the Tories out, but go ahead, it is your party's funeral.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
>
> >
>
> > Have there been more focus groups?
>
> >
>
> > I see the “People’s Vote” is now the “Final Say”...
>
> >
>
> > Sometimes a "Confirmatory referendum" these days as well.
>
>
>
> Accepted that Jeremy screwed up yet? With so called northern leave seats swinging to LDs is it possible that he got Brexit wrong and he shouldn’t be ‘Bailing out’ the Tories.
>
> TBH I thought the Northern results (the bad ones) showed we were pushing too hard on remain, or at least for their liking.
>
> I haven't expected Labour and Tories to reach a deal and I still don't. Labour have to approach the talks seriously though. Unless we are moving to a second referendum only position then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached.
The problem is Labour is never going to be Brexity enough for those leavers, especially when you have Corbyn as leader. Why would someone who voted Brexit to 'get their country back' and is anti-immigration, vote for a party that will deliver a softer Brexit than the Tories and is led by a man one of whose more admirable characteristics (and you know I think he doesn't have that many) is sympathy for immigrants from the poorer and more troubled parts of the world?
'Leave' constituencies still contain a huge number of remain voters, to win Labour has to corral them into an electoral coalition that outweighs the Tory leave one. The Tories shambolic collapse has made that easier, but look at even the leave seats where Lab has done badly and you need to scoop up the Lib Dem/Green/Independent votes. Ambiguity proved disastrous and does anyone really think Labour can be an authentic Brexit party when the overwhelming majority of members and MPs strongly support remain?
There is a huge difference though between 'a Brexit deal can be reached' and 'a Brexit deal will be reached' which is why I haven't thought a deal would be reached.
Also think it could still be tight passing the commons even if they did make a deal.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
The only thing that unifies the two sides is a loathing of Corbyn
I wonder if, perversely, this'll help Farage.
Everyone can see the media portraying these results as indicating a strong Remain sentiment. Those pondering whether to vote for the Brexit Party or another way, and who are of a Leave mindset, might end up backing Farage on the basis that whichever party wins will (or ought to, if the media are consistent...) dictate the EU/UK slant of the media narrative.
The SDP had the advantage that two of the founding four, if all experienced politicians, weren’t sitting in parliament at the time. The problem for CUK is that all of them have dirty hands from the current political mess and so far they haven’t managed to present anything by way of either policy or attitude that is particularly new. Their Euro candidate lists are a missed opportunity to offer something fresh, including far too many retread politicians and other minor celebrities in the leading positions.
Within the huge leave vote will be those who prioritise services or maybe have some concerns about immigration but have that as secondary to other concerns. If we can fight Brexit to a draw with the Conservatives or only a slight loss we can win them over with other areas.
Going too strongly pro remain could put the section that are potential Labour right off.
I do agree with the analysis about lots of remain voters even in leave constituencies and I am pro second referendum myself but there is a good reason not to go too strongly in that direction.
> Thinking back on yesterday, Labour's big problem is that up north our voters want Brexit and down south our voters want remain. No matter how much fudging of position goes on and for however long, there's no escaping the fact that half our voters want the exact opposite to the other half.
>
> The only thing that unifies the two sides is a loathing of Corbyn
You’d think that someone in that position might be able to see the upside of a referendum.
> Bailing out the Tories pisses off both Remainers and those who want the Tories out, but go ahead, it is your party's funeral.
>
> I'm talking about Labour position rather than my own (which would prefer a second ref) if Labour say there is a form of Brexit they would be willing to back then there is a Brexit deal that can be reached between the parties which they would have to discuss if the government wanted.
>
> There is a huge difference though between 'a Brexit deal can be reached' and 'a Brexit deal will be reached' which is why I haven't thought a deal would be reached.
>
> Also think it could still be tight passing the commons even if they did make a deal.
The wider problem for both leaders is that the making and attempted carrying of a deal is the moment that one or both major parties split, if it happens at all.
> > @Charles said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> >
> > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> >
> >
> >
> > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> >
> > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
> >
> > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
> >
> > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
>
> Though in Euro-polling half the surviving Tory vote is remainers. You have to admire their loyalty, though wonder about their sanity!
They are people like my mother, soft remainers who don’t feel that strongly about Brexit but opt for the Tories out of loyalty and fear of Corbyn. You are right however that the Tory Euro voters are likely to be ascribed to the leave column by commentators, when the reality is that by Election Day it’ll probably be majority Remain. Treating it as mostly Remain is the easiest way to reconcile the VI and L/R polling.
> FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
To take my example of Harborough, which roughly matches the council areas of Harborough (11 LDs of 34 Seats) and Oadby and Wigston (LDs 20 of 25 seats), yet in 2017 GE LDs polled a distant third, substantially behind Labour who only gained their first council seat in either council yesterday. Much as I would like to win the seat, it doesn't look easy. Harborough was very tight for Leave in the referendum at less than 51%.
https://twitter.com/DavidRoe92/status/1124550683640913921
> > @Foxy said:
> > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
>
> Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
Problem is Labour is split on Brexit, it cannot decide and therefore is stuck.
But it still has to choose, because indecision is worse.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
>
>
>
> It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
>
>
>
> Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
>
>
>
> The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
>
> Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
Once you add Brexit party into the mix all sorts of results are plausible. 45% Tory vote shares could easily end up 30/15 or even 25/20 splits and LDs could win seats on a much lower vote share than previous elections.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > > > @Foxy said:
> >
> > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
> >
> >
> >
> > It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
> >
> >
> >
> > Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
> >
> >
> >
> > The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
> >
> > Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
>
> Once you add Brexit party into the mix all sorts of results are plausible. 45% Tory vote shares could easily end up 30/15 or even 25/20 splits and LDs could win seats on a much lower vote share than previous elections.
If both main parties’ national vote is depressed toward 30%, it becomes easier for many seats to be won on lower percentages of the vote, introducing further capriciousness into how our voting system translates votes into seats.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > >
> > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
> > >
> > > Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
> >
> > Once you add Brexit party into the mix all sorts of results are plausible. 45% Tory vote shares could easily end up 30/15 or even 25/20 splits and LDs could win seats on a much lower vote share than previous elections.
>
> If both main parties’ national vote is depressed toward 30%, it becomes easier for many seats to be won on lower percentages of the vote, introducing further capriciousness into how our voting system translates votes into seats.
Depends how you look at it, it would also make the quality of individual candidates much more important in getting elected, an extra 5% personal vote could be key, which seems a good thing given the below quote on Grayling, Burgon et al.
You could be talking about the Tories!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48159676
> > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Libdems 19 and Brexit 12 is the flaw in their logic. So only "other" voters have moved to Brexit, whereas no Libdems have moved to Change/Brexit.
>
>
>
> It's a meaningless exercise. The local elections certainly give us some indication of public sentiment, but trying to extrapolate the projected national share to give a Parliamentary seat estimate is a mug's game.
>
>
>
> Anyway, a local observation from my part of the world: North Herts District Council has had a Tory majority continuously since 1976, save for the period 1994-1999 immediately surrounding the first Blair landslide. Until Thursday, that is: the theme of voters turning out to punish the Tories in the southern half of England appears to have been expressed here, as in most other places that were holding elections last night.
>
>
>
> The main beneficiaries were the Liberal Democrats. The district split about 54:46 in favour of Remain, and there's probably also a "pale of Cambridge" effect around here, with the yellows mopping up a lot of votes from fed-up bourgeois lefties. Amongst the casualties was the now ex-leader of the council, who finished in a dead heat with the Lib Dem candidate in her ward and lost on the drawing of lots.
>
> Yes, the Tories do seem to have thoroughly pissed off a substantial share of their pro-Remain voters across Southern England. If a hard Brexiteer becomes Tory Leader then the LDs could have a very good GE, with many seats that were safe Tory becoming vulnerable. Perhaps Harborough is not that implausible after all.
There's a long way to go: even if the Government doesn't see out the year, there's still the European elections to come and all the fallout from those which, given the chaotic/paralysed state the main parties are in and the apparent volatility in the electorate, could be considerable. HOWEVER... even accounting for the rigidities inherent in the FPTP system, some kind of substantial shift at the next General Election does seem possible.
A Lib Dem comeback in the South would certainly be welcome. If this were to be mirrored by the Brexit Party doing a hatchet job on Northern Labour as well then so much the better. Both the Tories and Labour are clapped out and deserve to be punished: if we continue to have pendulum politics, in which ennui with one automatically translates into a majority for the other, no matter how useless that alternative is, then we'll never get anywhere.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they might be “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd.
> >
> > They’ve blown it.
> >
> > It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna).
>
> I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others.
It does seem as though the Tiggers (Change UK) have squandered their chances by making some very bad poiltical decisions. It's as though their mindset is still that of the two bigger parties, they need to think as a third (fourth, fifth?) party. They should ally tactically with the Lib Dems and Greens until PR is achieved or they will sink at the next GE.
> I just find it surprising that Orange Bookers are happy to enter local pacts with eco-socialists.
>
>
>
> Meanwhile us eco-socialists in Labour don't get the chance to do this with like-minded comrades in the Greens.
>
> The Orange Book tendency in the Lib Dems is dead. Clegg killed it. (Or rather, Clegg fronted the loathsome Danny Alexander killing it.)
>
> We are, basically, all social liberals now. The next leader is going to be Jo Swinson or Layla Moran and both are clearly social liberals.
>
> Personally I'm not far off an eco-socialist; certainly I'm an eco-social democrat. Corbyn is neither eco nor social democrat. Come and join the dark orange side.
A truly successful party of the centre has to find a way to accommodate both tendencies, or remain an irrelevance.
I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124387518378647553?s=21
Brexit is the manifest symptom, not the cause: two parties who are not guided by what is in the best interests of the country and its people, and who are both clearly unfit to govern.
The European elections will see the Brexit Party stand, giving an outlet for Leavers who don't like UKIP, and the Change UK Party will stand, splitting the Remain vote (although their impact may be diminished by the Lib Dems' helpful media narrative they're establishing as the biggest pro-Remain party).
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they might be “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd.
> > >
> > > They’ve blown it.
> > >
> > > It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna).
> >
> > I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others.
>
> It does seem as though the Tiggers (Change UK) have squandered their chances by making some very bad poiltical decisions. It's as though their mindset is still that of the two bigger parties, they need to think as a third (fourth, fifth?) party. They should ally tactically with the Lib Dems and Greens until PR is achieved or they will sink at the next GE.
Yes, I too think they have missed their chance - and more critically spoiled the chances for someone else coming along and doing it properly. The SDP were the same, in the early days, with a parliamentary party fixed in the mindset of the old politics, but they were taught a salutary lesson by the 1983 GE. Meanwhile the SDP brought large numbers of new people into politics at the grassroots, which CUK so far doesn’t seem to be doing.
There is still, I guess, a chance of a major fracture in Labour and/or Tory, most likely in the event of a Brexit deal between them, which might give CUK a second chance.
Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1124570535017558018?s=21
The Euro elections will give a much better read on Brexit I think. You’ll have CUK, TBP and an election where potholes shouldn’t influence voting patterns
> The Euro elections will be an interesting comparison when the Brexit Party and Chuka's commandos enter the fray. The LDs to beat the Brexit party? I can't see it.
If Labour lost its Remain voters in the same way as the Tories their leavers, it would be perfectly possible. But it’s easier to be on a fence in opposition.
> I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
>
> Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > I just find it surprising that Orange Bookers are happy to enter local pacts with eco-socialists.
> >
> >
> >
> > Meanwhile us eco-socialists in Labour don't get the chance to do this with like-minded comrades in the Greens.
> >
> > The Orange Book tendency in the Lib Dems is dead. Clegg killed it. (Or rather, Clegg fronted the loathsome Danny Alexander killing it.)
> >
> > We are, basically, all social liberals now. The next leader is going to be Jo Swinson or Layla Moran and both are clearly social liberals.
> >
> > Personally I'm not far off an eco-socialist; certainly I'm an eco-social democrat. Corbyn is neither eco nor social democrat. Come and join the dark orange side.
>
> A truly successful party of the centre has to find a way to accommodate both tendencies, or remain an irrelevance.
>
>
The mistake there is to assume the Lib Dems are centrist, rather than a (social) liberal party. While the Clegg hijacking experimented with Centrism, under tutelage of advisors who'd not been Lib Dems before 2010, the party is returning to its distinctive (and electoral successful) role as a progressive party. Centrism is by definition a tactical 'split the difference' rather than a positive set of values.
The delusion that watering down the deal until it passes is a good strategy for the long term is highly optimistic.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124573982244638720
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
> >
> > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
>
> That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
>
> What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
It may already be too late. It is hard to see how either Tory or Labour achieves a majority under our voting system by drawing most of their support only from one or other side on the referendum divide. Hence why Labour clings to its position on the fence, which is now starting to fall apart. As we move toward actual Brexit (or non-Brexit), it is hard to see these pressures weakening in the medium term; probably the reverse. 2016 may indeed have broken our party system.
> Looks like the cabinet is still in denial.
>
> https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1124570535017558018
>
>
>
> I think he’s probably right though. Lots of “ifs” though!
>
> How about “if Mrs May had talked to her MPs she would never have agreed to such a deal”.
>
> The delusion that watering down the deal until it passes is a good strategy for the long term is highly optimistic.
The only good strategy for the long term is abandoning Brexit altogether, but neither of the major parties fancies paying the short term political price.
Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> >
>
> > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> >
>
> > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> >
>
> > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> >
>
> > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
>
>
>
> It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
>
> Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
>
> If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
>
> * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
>
> Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
>
> Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
>
> I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
>
> If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
>
> I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad.
> I've never seen OGH as excited.
The Sotheby's auction day of Bruce Forsyth's entire collection of hairpieces was a frenzy unknown to Clan Smithson since the Orpington Liberal by-election win in 1962 !! ....
> Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem:
<blockquote>General Election 2017: South Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Heidi Allen 33,631 51.8 +0.7
Labour Dan Greef 17,679 27.2 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Susan van de Ven 12,102 18.6 +3.4
Green Simon Saggers 1,512 2.3 −3.9
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Cambridgeshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)</blockquote>;
Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency.
OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
> >
> > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
>
> That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
>
> What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
>
> However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
> > >
> > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
> >
> > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
> >
> > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
> >
> > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
>
> My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> >
> > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> >
> >
> >
> > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> >
> > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
> >
> > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
> >
> > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
> >
> > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
> >
> > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
> >
> > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
> >
> > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
> >
> > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
>
> Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad.
Leave voters will say hello in three weeks' time.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
> > > >
> > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
> > >
> > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
> > >
> > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
> > >
> > > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
> >
> > My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
>
> Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms.
If you make this about Corbyn, the cult will close ranks and nothing will change. Labour needs to change. So leave him in place, but find other ways to broaden appeal and move forward.
> Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play.
I think the Euro elections will be characterised as a de facto Ref2:
"tell them again" = Brexit Party (Farage)
"make it stop" = Lib Dems/Green (Layla Moran / Caroline Lucas)
(I'm slightly deluded/drunk on yesterday's results, I realise!)
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
>
> It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem:
>
> <blockquote>General Election 2017: South Cambridgeshire
> Party Candidate Votes % ±
> Conservative Heidi Allen 33,631 51.8 +0.7
> Labour Dan Greef 17,679 27.2 +9.6
> Liberal Democrat Susan van de Ven 12,102 18.6 +3.4
> Green Simon Saggers 1,512 2.3 −3.9
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Cambridgeshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)</blockquote>;
>
> Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency.
>
> OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour.
Heidi has a very poor reputation with local Lib Dems, who won the local council in spectacular fashion last year. This is, in psrt, due to her election strategy which mostly consisted of wearing low cut blouses.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> >
>
> > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> >
>
> > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> >
>
> > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> >
>
> > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
>
>
>
> It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
>
> Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
>
> If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
>
> * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
>
> Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
>
> Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
>
> I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
>
> If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
>
> I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
A triumph for Remain means Remain parties winning, not Remain parties getting a strong third place.
> > @Roger said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > >
> > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> > >
> > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
> > >
> > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
> > >
> > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
> > >
> > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
> > >
> > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
> > >
> > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
> > >
> > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
> > >
> > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
> >
> > Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad.
>
> Leave voters will say hello in three weeks' time.
Though London and Scotland get to vote too then; unlikely to be pretty for either main party.
Toriesrest of the Labour movement then one wonders whether they’ll find a new home.And if the Corbynistas maintain control who takes over?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48108956
> If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359.
>
> Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
If Corbyn goes for Brexit and a Customs Union then last night's results also show Labour will also suffer major damage and loss of votes to the LDs and Greens if it does not have a confirmatory referendum with a Remain option attached.
In that case May was absolutely right to drag Corbyn into the negotiations on the Brexit Deal that will be put before Parliament, she knows a Deal plus Customs Union might cost the Tories votes to abstentions and the Brexit Party but that will still be nothing like the damage the Tories are currently suffering from the fact we are still in the EU.
Deal plus Customs Union only lost by 3 votes in the indicative votes and was far closer to a majority than No Deal, EUre2 or revoke so if the Commons refuse to back the Deal plus Customs Union and May is Machiavellian enough to drag Corbyn down with her in order to get it through after which she can step down and hand over to a new Tory leader. Of course if the WA did not have the backstop attached as the Brady amendment being passed showed the Deal would have passed by now but that requires the EU to make a further concession which still looks unlikely
Logic doesn't mix with politics.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> >
>
> > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> >
>
> > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> >
>
> > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> >
>
> > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
>
>
>
> It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
>
> Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
>
> If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
>
> * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
>
> Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
>
> Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
>
> I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
>
> If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
>
> I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
Independents also triumphed and did almost as well as the LDs and plenty of Brexiteers voted Independent last night if they bothered to vote at all.
If Labour or the LDs or CUK win the European elections and beat the Brexit Party or Labour and the LDs and Greens and SNP comfortably beat the Tories and Brexit Party and UKIP in the combined voteshare then you can claim a triumph for Remain but not yet
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> >
>
> > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> >
>
> > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> >
>
> > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> >
>
> > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
>
>
>
> It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
>
> Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
>
> If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
>
> * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
>
> Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
>
> Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
>
> I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
>
> If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
>
> I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
We are told umpteen times a week that Labour Leave seats had a majority of Labour Remain voters backing those MPs. Well, similarly "Remain leaning areas" still have a shedload of Tories who voted for Brexit. They are the ones pissed off and who have gone on a voter strike. They turned out in 2015 on the same day to get a Cameron Govt. pledged to a referendum. They didn't turn out yesterday.
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
> >
> > It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem:
> >
> > <blockquote>General Election 2017: South Cambridgeshire
> > Party Candidate Votes % ±
> > Conservative Heidi Allen 33,631 51.8 +0.7
> > Labour Dan Greef 17,679 27.2 +9.6
> > Liberal Democrat Susan van de Ven 12,102 18.6 +3.4
> > Green Simon Saggers 1,512 2.3 −3.9
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Cambridgeshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)</blockquote>;
> >
> > Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency.
> >
> > OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour.
>
> Heidi has a very poor reputation with local Lib Dems, who won the local council in spectacular fashion last year. This is, in psrt, due to her election strategy which mostly consisted of wearing low cut blouses.
A good strategy, if you look like Heidi Allen.
I sense a Labour implosion incoming, so quite happy with Ladbrokes 50/1 on less than 10%. Remained should vote Green, LD, CHUK, PC or SNP.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > >
> > > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> > > >
> > > > Seats won is pretty close to 50/50 Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Green. *
> > > >
> > > > If you assume Lab is not wholeheartedly for Remain then clear majority for Brexit
> > > >
> > > > * excluding ind/other because I can’t be arsed
> > > >
> > > > Shouldn't Brexit be doing better than 50/50 considering the areas contested?
> > > >
> > > > Although I'm not sure you can really read the election in that way for many reasons.
> > > >
> > > > I’ve no idea. But it’s not a triumph for Remain. Not all the parties were standing, not everyone was voting on Brexit
> > > >
> > > > If the losses for the Brexit parties and sweeping gains for Remain parties was not a triumph for Remain, what would this have looked like?
> > > >
> > > > I agree these were local elections and other factors matter, but how else do you explain the massive Tory losses in Remain leaning areas? Or is it that Tory councils across the land have been particularly pisspoor at potholes all of a sudden?
> > >
> > > Absolutely right. While the EU remains Remainers aren't going anywhere. It feels very much like Leave are on the run. They're going through the motions but they're a spent force if a hysterical one. Even their leaders cant give a coherent reason for why they wanted it in the first place. The rather forlorn 'but 17 million people voted for it a few years ago sounds sad.
> >
> > Leave voters will say hello in three weeks' time.
>
> Though London and Scotland get to vote too then; unlikely to be pretty for either main party.
I'm sure it will be pretty grim for Con and Lab, the former especially.
> Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play.
It is curious how many leavers are eagerly looking at the European elections to see what proportion of the current electorate support Brexit. If that is so important why not just ask the electorate what they want directly? I thought the views of the 2016 cohort were sacrosanct?
> FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map.
The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play.
>
> It is curious how many leavers are eagerly looking at the European elections to see what proportion of the current electorate support Brexit. If that is so important why not just ask the electorate what they want directly? I thought the views of the 2016 cohort were sacrosanct?
No Leavers want the EU elections to go ahead, but since they are going ahead, we'll use them to express our views.
It seems natural that such will happen for the European elections.
Mr. Eagles, that is true. But the Borg were not defeated, and the Conservatives do not have the crew of the starship Enterprise to help. They don't even have the crew of Red Dwarf.