> @dyedwoolie said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > I'm trying to track down the 'national' (ie not localised to one council area) seats for the minor parties, so far I have > > > 7 Liberals > > > 2 Yorkshire Party > > > 1 Britain First > > > 1 Democrats and Veterans > > > Strike out for the SDP > > > Did WEP, English Democrats or any of the other UKIP splinters get any? Or any of the trot parties? > > > > Four Yorkshire Party were elected in Selby: > > > > https://www.selby.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/Combined District.pdf > > Ah cool thank you
2 for For Britain, 2 for Democrats and Veterans. Minor party politics is so much more fun than the national dirge
> @Sean_F said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > @kjh said: > > > > > > > > Cheers for that feedback Nick. So not fortuitous then, but planning. The LD vote looked possibly high enough for them to have possibly made it even with a split vote, but two possibles in there, in the addition to hindsight, and me not having any local info any more. So I'm possibly spouting twaddle to the victor on the ground. > > > > Who knows? But an important factor is that there are no significant differences between Labour and LibDem policy at local level here (they may emerge, but that's the position now). So actually we both seem to be fine with the results, and if there are LibDems gnashing their teeth that they didn't have a second person instead of me, or Labour people snarling that we didn't try for both, I've not met them. I like my LibDem co-councillor and I'm glad he did so well; he says he reciprocates. Yes, I'm a Corbynite and he's a centrist, but really what difference does that make in discussing policy on > high street shops? > > > > It'd be harder if he was ChangeUK, frankly. I won't support any splintering of the progressive vote beyond what already exists. > > Congratulations on your win. > > Congrats from here too. Locally we seem to have a tacit alliance between at least some of the Independents and the Greens. I think the LD's were in it too, but they didn't win any seats. How that's going to work out in practice I'm not sure.
> > This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
Surely that tale of horrors is not Corbynism but Conservatism. Since 2010, the Tories have axed 20,000 soldiers, 20,000 coppers and undermined private schools by a 40 per cent increase in pension charges. Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). As for the monarchy, the Tories have even stopped Prince Philip driving!
It is the Conservatives, not Corbyn, who have wrecked Tory Britain.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit).
Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @houndtang said: > > > > > This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever. > > Surely that tale of horrors is not Corbynism but Conservatism. Since 2010, the Tories have axed 20,000 soldiers, 20,000 coppers and undermined private schools by a 40 per cent increase in pension charges. Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). As for the monarchy, the Tories have even stopped Prince Philip driving! > > It is the Conservatives, not Corbyn, who have wrecked Tory Britain.
Absolutely. I detest Corbyns Labour but what the f do Tories stand for anymore? What is their policy on a anything? Why should we all put up with shit services and money trousering by the already rich because 'deficit innit'? Knife crime rampant and police cut to the core and an obsession over Europe. They are utterly utterly pitiful
This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
> @algarkirk said: > This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
An election with the usual minor government recovery and a modest low double figure Brexit Party showing could produce some astonishing results in the North and Midlands
> @houndtang said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On last night's results it will only be PM Corbyn if he gets LD support > > > > > > Which despite their protests why would they not, if the alternative was another election or Tory control. Many lds seem very happy to work with the greens in theory, so an arrangement with Corbyn seems pretty easy for the right price. > > > > Possibly but the best possible way to revive Tory fortunes electorally would be for PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and SNP with the Tories having opposition largely to themselves under Boris and Davidson hammering the Corbyn and Sturgeon pact in Scotland > > This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
If Corbyn won a landslide next time you might be right and it would take at least a decade for the Tories to get back in by which time the damage could have been done.
However as last week confirmed if Corbyn does become PM it will only be propped up the SNP and LDs and they will block a hard left socialist agenda while forcing Corbyn to dilute Brexit if not cancel it altogether
> @NickPalmer said: > > @kjh said: > > > > > Cheers for that feedback Nick. So not fortuitous then, but planning. The LD vote looked possibly high enough for them to have possibly made it even with a split vote, but two possibles in there, in the addition to hindsight, and me not having any local info any more. So I'm possibly spouting twaddle to the victor on the ground. > > Who knows? But an important factor is that there are no significant differences between Labour and LibDem policy at local level here (they may emerge, but that's the position now). So actually we both seem to be fine with the results, and if there are LibDems gnashing their teeth that they didn't have a second person instead of me, or Labour people snarling that we didn't try for both, I've not met them. I like my LibDem co-councillor and I'm glad he did so well; he says he reciprocates. Yes, I'm a Corbynite and he's a centrist, but really what difference does that make in discussing policy on high street shops? > > It'd be harder if he was ChangeUK, frankly. I won't support any splintering of the progressive vote beyond what already exists.
Are the Indies from the old LDs from the years ago when the LDs imploded with infighting?
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). > > Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
In truth, the number of overseas British nationals who can be bothered voting back here is trivial.
> @algarkirk said: > This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
There is a great deal in what you say but we need to be careful insofar as most elections are special in some way or other. These locals were fought in the shadow of Brexit paralysis, in largely Leave-voting areas, and the polling was dominated by support for minor parties which in practice were not even standing in most wards.
Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
> @Recidivist said: > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average. > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Recidivist said: > > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average. > > > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from. > > I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
Comparing how individual areas changed might be interesting.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @algarkirk said: > > This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case. > > An election with the usual minor government recovery and a modest low double figure Brexit Party showing could produce some astonishing results in the North and Midlands
And in the South. A low double figure Brexit Party vote would, in and of itself, rule out a minor government recovery.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Recidivist said: > > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average. > > > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from. > > I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
30 to 50% here, higher than usual as voters scented the chance to change things.
Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
> @dixiedean said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @algarkirk said: > > > This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case. > > > > An election with the usual minor government recovery and a modest low double figure Brexit Party showing could produce some astonishing results in the North and Midlands > > And in the South. A low double figure Brexit Party vote would, in and of itself, rule out a minor government recovery.
The Brexit Party % in the low double figures would permit Tories in the low 30s (minor recovery) and labour mid 20s to high 20s with LD, Change and Green sharing 20%, that should lead to a Tory minority or small majority government. In my example that is, I'm not saying what WILL happen, it depends how much of the 20% LD get
> > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
> >
> > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
>
> I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
Comparing how individual areas changed might be interesting.
I'm just doing that with mine, I was pretty much bang on with my estimate with turnout in my ward being about a third. Comparing with 2011 however that's about 10 points down for here, a Tory Leave area. Turnout dropped too in the run-down/'working class' Labour wards, although less and it was starting from a lower base. Postal votes made up over a third of all ballot papers in the ward, even larger in the Labour wards.
> @isam said: > How was that a red for Son ? Not sure I've seen a red given for a shove before. > > How have Bournemouth not had 2 pens and how has Dier stayed on the pitch?
Ref bottled the decision on Dier after sending Son off probably. Poor all round
Support for the LibDems has always tended to be much softer than that received by the two big parties. Many vote for them without having a clear idea as to their policies but view them as a protest anti- establishment option. Quite a few who voted LD this week are likely to vote for the Brexit Party on 23rd May - simply because at that election it will be viewed as the more effective NOTA choice. Back in the 1970s and 1980s , a surprising number of people switched between the Liberals and the National Front. It did not exactly make a lot of sense - but 'easy come - easy go'.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Recidivist said: > > > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average. > > > > > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from. > > > > I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual. > > 30 to 50% here, higher than usual as voters scented the chance to change things.
55% in my ward, but special goings on in Guildford that I'll post about later.
> @Cicero said: > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct
> @brokenwheel said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Recidivist said: > > > > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average. > > > > > > > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from. > > > > > > I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual. > > > > Comparing how individual areas changed might be interesting. > > I'm just doing that with mine, I was pretty much bang on with my estimate with turnout in my ward being about a third. Comparing with 2011 however that's about 10 points down for here, a Tory Leave area. Turnout dropped too in the run-down/'working class' Labour wards, although less and it was starting from a lower base. Postal votes made up over a third of all ballot papers in the ward, even larger in the Labour wards.
> @Andy_Cooke said: > I'm also finding it hard to compare directly with bad results in the past. > For example, in 1995, we had the Tories losing 2000 councillors in a cycle that hit their heartlands like today, with the Lib Dems picking up 487 and Labour 1800. > > But the number of councillors has changed, with councils amalgamated (into unitaries), or cut up, and with the number of councillors per council changed (for example, when the Lib Dems took Vale of White Horse in 1995, there were 51 councillors on the council; the same council today has 38 councillors). In addition, Wales had local elections at this point in the cycle then; they don't now. > > I found a Parliamentary Research Paper from 1995 which stated there were 12,153 councillors elected that day. Up until just now, on the BBC website, there have been 8,410 councillors elected (and the mainland count seems complete). The sort of regions contested (primarily rural), though, looks comparable. > > Scale-wise, then, a loss of 1334 councillors of 8410 contested looks only a little less bad than a loss of 2018 councillors out of 12,153 places contested. A gain of 703 against a backdrop of 8,410 contests looks a lot better than a gain of 487 out of a backdrop of 12,153 contested (albeit from a significantly lower starting point). > > No matter how you spin it, though, a loss of 82 out of 8,410 is a hell of a lot worse than a gain of 1,807 out of 12,153.
Labour suffered bigger losses in 1959, 1960 & 1961 - and indeed in 1953, 1954 & 1955. In May 1970 the Tories lost several hundred seats to Labour but went on to win the General Election five weeks later.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cicero said: > > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour. > > It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct
Nah, that just silly. They only got 19% in locals without Change or Brexit to fight. They might beat the Tories on a total meltdown
> @Cicero said: > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
_________________________ It certainly seems that all 6 million voters who signed the petition should vote LD or Green. Tactical voting might be needed so that in some regions both parties get an MEP instead of only one getting an MEP.
In the SE region, they might both get at least one MEP and if very lucky three MEPs between them. But CUK is likely to split the vote a bit.
Regional polls would help pro-EU voters, if anyone from Yougov is watching ...
> @rural_voter said: > > @Barnesian said: > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April). > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349 > > > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9% > > > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats. > > > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2 > ___________________ > > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional. > > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties. > > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect.
Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system.
Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats?
Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rural_voter said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April). > > > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349 > > > > > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9% > > > > > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats. > > > > > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2 > > ___________________ > > > > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional. > > > > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties. > > > > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect. > > Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system. > > Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats?
No I believe that votes should be closely proportional to seats. So a party on 30% would get 1.5x as many seats as a party on 20%, not nearly 2x. Also a party on 9% should get 3.3x fewer seats than the party on 30%, not no seats at all.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cicero said: > > > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour. > > > > It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct > > Nah, that just silly. They only got 19% in locals without Change or Brexit to fight. > They might beat the Tories on a total meltdown
Yougov had Labour plunging to just 15% just over a week ago tied with the Tories and LDs if Labour backed the Brexit Deal plus Customs Union but no confirmatory referendum with a Remain option.
> @rural_voter said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rural_voter said: > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April). > > > > > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349 > > > > > > > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9% > > > > > > > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats. > > > > > > > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2 > > > ___________________ > > > > > > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional. > > > > > > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties. > > > > > > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect. > > > > Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system. > > > > Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats? > > No I believe that votes should be closely proportional to seats. So a party on 30% would get 1.5x as many seats as a party on 20%, not nearly 2x. Also a party on 9% should get 3.3x fewer seats than the party on 30%, not no seats at all.
But that isn't what you said. Your exact words were:
"The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running"
You can rightly bemoan the fact that there is not perfect proportionality but it is wrong to blame pro-Brexit parties getting the most seats on the system. They get the most seats because they get the most votes (again assuming they do actually get the most votes).
If you are that bothered by fairness you would be better off moaning about UKIP getting 12% of the vote and 0.15% of the seats at the 2015 GE.
> @HYUFD said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour. > > > > > > It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct > > > > Nah, that just silly. They only got 19% in locals without Change or Brexit to fight. > > They might beat the Tories on a total meltdown > > Yougov had Labour plunging to just 15% just over a week ago tied with the Tories and LDs if Labour backed the Brexit Deal plus Customs Union but no confirmatory referendum with a Remain option. > > The Brexit Party was ahead on 27%
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rural_voter said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @rural_voter said: > > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April). > > > > > > > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349 > > > > > > > > > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9% > > > > > > > > > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats. > > > > > > > > > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2 > > > > ___________________ > > > > > > > > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional. > > > > > > > > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties. > > > > > > > > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect. > > > > > > Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system. > > > > > > Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats? > > > > No I believe that votes should be closely proportional to seats. So a party on 30% would get 1.5x as many seats as a party on 20%, not nearly 2x. Also a party on 9% should get 3.3x fewer seats than the party on 30%, not no seats at all. > > But that isn't what you said. Your exact words were: > > "The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running" > > You can rightly bemoan the fact that there is not perfect proportionality but it is wrong to blame pro-Brexit parties getting the most seats on the system. They get the most seats because they get the most votes (again assuming they do actually get the most votes). > > If you are that bothered by fairness you would be better off moaning about UKIP getting 12% of the vote and 0.15% of the seats at the 2015 GE.
I did moan about it being most unfair, maybe not on here but I don't spend all the time on PB and indeed I'm now going out. It's a lovely afternoon in the W Midlands. Bye bye ...
> @kle4 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > I'm gonna put my head on the block with an outlandish prediction. The party of government will finish 5th in the capital....... > > They might be fifth overall...
Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> @OldKingCole said: > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' >
Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> @OldKingCole said: > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. The DUP are up slightly on 2014, but may win fewer seats due to fielding too many candidates in some DEA's. The UUP will probably come very close overall to its score in 2014.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Lol @ spurs > > The UKIP of the premier league > > Bournemouth look about as able to score as May does to pass her MV
Yep, even Liverpool Nil should be ahead by now against the 9 kicky kick kickers
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. The DUP are up slightly on 2014, but may win fewer seats due to fielding too many candidates in some DEA's. The UUP will probably come very close overall to its score in 2014.
You can see how polarised things get at Parliamentary level, by the fact that Sinn Fein and the DUP have won 47.5% between them in these elections, but took 64% in the general election.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
Have to agree with Cameron on this one. Or rather not exactly as many, but a few more.
"<i>Speaking on David Tennant's podcast, US writer and actress Tina Fey revealed that, while leader, Mr Cameron implored her to lobby the British TV industry to churn out as many episodes as US shows do</i>"
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new. > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
> @williamglenn said: > I'm gonna put my head on the block with an outlandish prediction. The party of government will finish 5th in the capital....... > > They could be sixth if the Greens get on a roll.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new. > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle..... > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > > > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new. > > > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle..... > > > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'! > > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > > > > > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new. > > > > > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle..... > > > > > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'! > > > > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth > > I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again.
Yeah, he had a very indistinct face and no discernable accent, was moving abroad I think
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > > > > > > > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new. > > > > > > > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle..... > > > > > > > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'! > > > > > > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth > > > > I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again. > > Yeah, he had a very indistinct face and no discernable accent, was moving abroad I think
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences):
> @Cicero said: > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
I think a Labour meltdown and difficulty getting out either their Leave or Remain votes. I reckon the 50/1 from Shadsy on Lab under 10%, which I got boosted to 60/1, is not a bad punt. Probably 5/1 would be more like reality.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver. > > > > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."' > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new. > > > > > > > > > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle..... > > > > > > > > > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'! > > > > > > > > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth > > > > > > I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again. > > > > Yeah, he had a very indistinct face and no discernable accent, was moving abroad I think > > So you did meet him?
Friend of an associate of a friend, nothing traceable.. I mean nothing serious
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. > > > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though. > > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences): > > DUP 24.4% > Sinn Fein 23.1% > UUP 14.9% > SDLP 12.7% > Alliance 11.1%
Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > > > > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. > > > > > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though. > > > > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences): > > > > DUP 24.4% > > Sinn Fein 23.1% > > UUP 14.9% > > SDLP 12.7% > > Alliance 11.1% > > Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides.
Alliance are up by nearly 4%, Unionists and nationalists down by nearly 2% each, suggesting they probably got their extra votes evenly from each side. Although Alliance have polled best in predominantly unionist areas (as usual) they have got some councillors elected in nationalist areas this time around.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21 > > > > > > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off. > > > > I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots. > > > > I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas. > > Will he impress anywhere ?
He does seem to have the frothy mouthed vote sewn up, and that may play well to the party selectorate. I don't think they are that bothered what the voting public think.
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > > > > > > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. > > > > > > > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though. > > > > > > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences): > > > > > > DUP 24.4% > > > Sinn Fein 23.1% > > > UUP 14.9% > > > SDLP 12.7% > > > Alliance 11.1% > > > > Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides. > > Alliance are up by nearly 4%, Unionists and nationalists down by nearly 2% each, suggesting they probably got their extra votes evenly from each side. Although Alliance have polled best in predominantly unionist areas (as usual) they have got some councillors elected in nationalist areas this time around.
Yes; candidates in the far West for, IIRC, the first time. I wonder if it'll make any difference to DUP mindset?
> Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit).
Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
> > > On last night's results it will only be PM Corbyn if he gets LD support
> > >
> > > Which despite their protests why would they not, if the alternative was another election or Tory control. Many lds seem very happy to work with the greens in theory, so an arrangement with Corbyn seems pretty easy for the right price.
> >
> > Possibly but the best possible way to revive Tory fortunes electorally would be for PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and SNP with the Tories having opposition largely to themselves under Boris and Davidson hammering the Corbyn and Sturgeon pact in Scotland
>
> This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
If Corbyn won a landslide next time you might be right and it would take at least a decade for the Tories to get back in by which time the damage could have been done.
However as last week confirmed if Corbyn does become PM it will only be propped up the SNP and LDs and they will block a hard left socialist agenda while forcing Corbyn to dilute Brexit if not cancel it altogether
It wasn’t “as confirmed last week”
It is “based on last week’s results”
Corbyn is a very effective campaigner. I believe he will face more scrutiny and get fewer “free hit” votes so will do less well but your complacency is very alarming
> @Foxy said: > > @Cicero said: > > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour. > > I think a Labour meltdown and difficulty getting out either their Leave or Remain votes. I reckon the 50/1 from Shadsy on Lab under 10%, which I got boosted to 60/1, is not a bad punt. Probably 5/1 would be more like reality.
Yes. Quasi Ref on Europe so pointless voting anything except BP, LD, CH, GR.
> @Charles said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). > > > > Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab. > > When did the Tories disenfranchise young people?
The franchise was exactly the same as is used for general elections and the 2011 AV referendum?
Irish and UK citizens who were resident here can still vote for 15 years once they move abroad. One has to ask if you have lived somewhere else for 15 years why don't you take citizenship where you live and pay taxes - and vote there - as most countries would allow that for legal permanent residents.
What is of course odd is why we allow Commonwealth nationals to vote where in all but a few exceptions there are no reciprocal arrangements for Brits living in Commonwealth member states to vote in their general elections.
As for kids getting the vote some 10 year olds and more mature than some 16 year olds - how low do you go? Toddlers for a people's vote - they will see the effects of Brexit longer than anyone wont they?
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course. > > > > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them. > > > > > > > > > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. > > > > > > > > > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though. > > > > > > > > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences): > > > > > > > > DUP 24.4% > > > > Sinn Fein 23.1% > > > > UUP 14.9% > > > > SDLP 12.7% > > > > Alliance 11.1% > > > > > > Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides. > > > > Alliance are up by nearly 4%, Unionists and nationalists down by nearly 2% each, suggesting they probably got their extra votes evenly from each side. Although Alliance have polled best in predominantly unionist areas (as usual) they have got some councillors elected in nationalist areas this time around. > > Yes; candidates in the far West for, IIRC, the first time. I wonder if it'll make any difference to DUP mindset?
Turnout was a very impressive 52% in Northern Ireland.
Comments
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > I'm trying to track down the 'national' (ie not localised to one council area) seats for the minor parties, so far I have
> > > 7 Liberals
> > > 2 Yorkshire Party
> > > 1 Britain First
> > > 1 Democrats and Veterans
> > > Strike out for the SDP
> > > Did WEP, English Democrats or any of the other UKIP splinters get any? Or any of the trot parties?
> >
> > Four Yorkshire Party were elected in Selby:
> >
> > https://www.selby.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/Combined District.pdf
>
> Ah cool thank you
2 for For Britain, 2 for Democrats and Veterans. Minor party politics is so much more fun than the national dirge
> Davis rules himself out of leadership race:
>
> "the standout candidate is Dominic Raab, so I will back him if he runs."
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6991155/DAVID-DAVIS-dont-want-Prime-Minister-Ill-vote-Dominic-Raab.html
Raab stands out as being a lightweight ToryBoy.
> Snap.
Rhythm is a dancer
It's a soul companion
You can feel it everywhere
Lift your hands and voices
Free your mind and join us
You can feel it in the air
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Davis rules himself out of leadership race:
> >
> > "the standout candidate is Dominic Raab, so I will back him if he runs."
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6991155/DAVID-DAVIS-dont-want-Prime-Minister-Ill-vote-Dominic-Raab.html
>
> Raab stands out as being a lightweight ToryBoy.
Dont they all? Except the wimmin
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > > @kjh said:
> >
> > >
> > > Cheers for that feedback Nick. So not fortuitous then, but planning. The LD vote looked possibly high enough for them to have possibly made it even with a split vote, but two possibles in there, in the addition to hindsight, and me not having any local info any more. So I'm possibly spouting twaddle to the victor on the ground.
> >
> > Who knows? But an important factor is that there are no significant differences between Labour and LibDem policy at local level here (they may emerge, but that's the position now). So actually we both seem to be fine with the results, and if there are LibDems gnashing their teeth that they didn't have a second person instead of me, or Labour people snarling that we didn't try for both, I've not met them. I like my LibDem co-councillor and I'm glad he did so well; he says he reciprocates. Yes, I'm a Corbynite and he's a centrist, but really what difference does that make in discussing policy on
> high street shops?
> >
> > It'd be harder if he was ChangeUK, frankly. I won't support any splintering of the progressive vote beyond what already exists.
>
> Congratulations on your win.
>
>
Congrats from here too.
Locally we seem to have a tacit alliance between at least some of the Independents and the Greens. I think the LD's were in it too, but they didn't win any seats.
How that's going to work out in practice I'm not sure.
>
> This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
Surely that tale of horrors is not Corbynism but Conservatism. Since 2010, the Tories have axed 20,000 soldiers, 20,000 coppers and undermined private schools by a 40 per cent increase in pension charges. Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). As for the monarchy, the Tories have even stopped Prince Philip driving!
It is the Conservatives, not Corbyn, who have wrecked Tory Britain.
> Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit).
Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
> > @houndtang said:
>
> >
> > This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
>
> Surely that tale of horrors is not Corbynism but Conservatism. Since 2010, the Tories have axed 20,000 soldiers, 20,000 coppers and undermined private schools by a 40 per cent increase in pension charges. Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). As for the monarchy, the Tories have even stopped Prince Philip driving!
>
> It is the Conservatives, not Corbyn, who have wrecked Tory Britain.
Absolutely. I detest Corbyns Labour but what the f do Tories stand for anymore? What is their policy on a anything? Why should we all put up with shit services and money trousering by the already rich because 'deficit innit'? Knife crime rampant and police cut to the core and an obsession over Europe. They are utterly utterly pitiful
> This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
An election with the usual minor government recovery and a modest low double figure Brexit Party showing could produce some astonishing results in the North and Midlands
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On last night's results it will only be PM Corbyn if he gets LD support
> > >
> > > Which despite their protests why would they not, if the alternative was another election or Tory control. Many lds seem very happy to work with the greens in theory, so an arrangement with Corbyn seems pretty easy for the right price.
> >
> > Possibly but the best possible way to revive Tory fortunes electorally would be for PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and SNP with the Tories having opposition largely to themselves under Boris and Davidson hammering the Corbyn and Sturgeon pact in Scotland
>
> This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
If Corbyn won a landslide next time you might be right and it would take at least a decade for the Tories to get back in by which time the damage could have been done.
However as last week confirmed if Corbyn does become PM it will only be propped up the SNP and LDs and they will block a hard left socialist agenda while forcing Corbyn to dilute Brexit if not cancel it altogether
> > @kjh said:
>
> >
> > Cheers for that feedback Nick. So not fortuitous then, but planning. The LD vote looked possibly high enough for them to have possibly made it even with a split vote, but two possibles in there, in the addition to hindsight, and me not having any local info any more. So I'm possibly spouting twaddle to the victor on the ground.
>
> Who knows? But an important factor is that there are no significant differences between Labour and LibDem policy at local level here (they may emerge, but that's the position now). So actually we both seem to be fine with the results, and if there are LibDems gnashing their teeth that they didn't have a second person instead of me, or Labour people snarling that we didn't try for both, I've not met them. I like my LibDem co-councillor and I'm glad he did so well; he says he reciprocates. Yes, I'm a Corbynite and he's a centrist, but really what difference does that make in discussing policy on high street shops?
>
> It'd be harder if he was ChangeUK, frankly. I won't support any splintering of the progressive vote beyond what already exists.
Are the Indies from the old LDs from the years ago when the LDs imploded with infighting?
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit).
>
> Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
In truth, the number of overseas British nationals who can be bothered voting back here is trivial.
> This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
There is a great deal in what you say but we need to be careful insofar as most elections are special in some way or other. These locals were fought in the shadow of Brexit paralysis, in largely Leave-voting areas, and the polling was dominated by support for minor parties which in practice were not even standing in most wards.
Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
> Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
>
> Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
> >
> > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
>
> I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
Comparing how individual areas changed might be interesting.
> > @algarkirk said:
> > This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
>
> An election with the usual minor government recovery and a modest low double figure Brexit Party showing could produce some astonishing results in the North and Midlands
And in the South. A low double figure Brexit Party vote would, in and of itself, rule out a minor government recovery.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
> >
> > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
>
> I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
30 to 50% here, higher than usual as voters scented the chance to change things.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @algarkirk said:
> > > This looks much worse for Labour than is being reported generally. The 2017 election was a special case in two ways: the Cons ran a campaign so terrible it took the most loyal of Tories by surprise at its complete incompetence, and Corbyn hit a 'peak Corbyn' moment, of the sort which is fun while it lasts but cannot be repeated with the same person unless they are a genius - which does not apply in this case.
> >
> > An election with the usual minor government recovery and a modest low double figure Brexit Party showing could produce some astonishing results in the North and Midlands
>
> And in the South. A low double figure Brexit Party vote would, in and of itself, rule out a minor government recovery.
The Brexit Party % in the low double figures would permit Tories in the low 30s (minor recovery) and labour mid 20s to high 20s with LD, Change and Green sharing 20%, that should lead to a Tory minority or small majority government. In my example that is, I'm not saying what WILL happen, it depends how much of the 20% LD get
> How was that a red for Son ? Not sure I've seen a red given for a shove before.
>
> How have Bournemouth not had 2 pens and how has Dier stayed on the pitch?
Ref bottled the decision on Dier after sending Son off probably. Poor all round
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Recidivist said:
> > > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
> > >
> > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
> >
> > I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
>
> 30 to 50% here, higher than usual as voters scented the chance to change things.
55% in my ward, but special goings on in Guildford that I'll post about later.
> Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct
The UKIP of the premier league
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @Recidivist said:
>
> > > Sort of on topic. How did the predictions of a low turnout fare? A lot of us were expecting it, and I actually thought I was observing it. But the number on the Wikipedia page is 36.3%, which is if anything above average.
>
> > >
>
> > > Unfortunately the link it references doesn't work so I am not sure where it comes from.
>
> >
>
> > I thought it was more like 33%, which is slightly lower than usual.
>
>
>
> Comparing how individual areas changed might be interesting.
>
> I'm just doing that with mine, I was pretty much bang on with my estimate with turnout in my ward being about a third. Comparing with 2011 however that's about 10 points down for here, a Tory Leave area. Turnout dropped too in the run-down/'working class' Labour wards, although less and it was starting from a lower base. Postal votes made up over a third of all ballot papers in the ward, even larger in the Labour wards.
43% turnout here, which is good.
> I'm also finding it hard to compare directly with bad results in the past.
> For example, in 1995, we had the Tories losing 2000 councillors in a cycle that hit their heartlands like today, with the Lib Dems picking up 487 and Labour 1800.
>
> But the number of councillors has changed, with councils amalgamated (into unitaries), or cut up, and with the number of councillors per council changed (for example, when the Lib Dems took Vale of White Horse in 1995, there were 51 councillors on the council; the same council today has 38 councillors). In addition, Wales had local elections at this point in the cycle then; they don't now.
>
> I found a Parliamentary Research Paper from 1995 which stated there were 12,153 councillors elected that day. Up until just now, on the BBC website, there have been 8,410 councillors elected (and the mainland count seems complete). The sort of regions contested (primarily rural), though, looks comparable.
>
> Scale-wise, then, a loss of 1334 councillors of 8410 contested looks only a little less bad than a loss of 2018 councillors out of 12,153 places contested. A gain of 703 against a backdrop of 8,410 contests looks a lot better than a gain of 487 out of a backdrop of 12,153 contested (albeit from a significantly lower starting point).
>
> No matter how you spin it, though, a loss of 82 out of 8,410 is a hell of a lot worse than a gain of 1,807 out of 12,153.
Labour suffered bigger losses in 1959, 1960 & 1961 - and indeed in 1953, 1954 & 1955. In May 1970 the Tories lost several hundred seats to Labour but went on to win the General Election five weeks later.
> > @Cicero said:
> > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
>
> It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct
Nah, that just silly. They only got 19% in locals without Change or Brexit to fight.
They might beat the Tories on a total meltdown
> Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
_________________________
It certainly seems that all 6 million voters who signed the petition should vote LD or Green. Tactical voting might be needed so that in some regions both parties get an MEP instead of only one getting an MEP.
In the SE region, they might both get at least one MEP and if very lucky three MEPs between them. But CUK is likely to split the vote a bit.
Regional polls would help pro-EU voters, if anyone from Yougov is watching ...
> > @Barnesian said:
> > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April).
> >
> > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349
> >
> > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9%
> >
> > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats.
> >
> > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2
> ___________________
>
> Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional.
>
> I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties.
>
> The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect.
Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system.
Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats?
DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April).
> > >
> > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349
> > >
> > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9%
> > >
> > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats.
> > >
> > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2
> > ___________________
> >
> > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional.
> >
> > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties.
> >
> > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect.
>
> Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system.
>
> Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats?
No I believe that votes should be closely proportional to seats. So a party on 30% would get 1.5x as many seats as a party on 20%, not nearly 2x. Also a party on 9% should get 3.3x fewer seats than the party on 30%, not no seats at all.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
> >
> > It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct
>
> Nah, that just silly. They only got 19% in locals without Change or Brexit to fight.
> They might beat the Tories on a total meltdown
Yougov had Labour plunging to just 15% just over a week ago tied with the Tories and LDs if Labour backed the Brexit Deal plus Customs Union but no confirmatory referendum with a Remain option.
The Brexit Party was ahead on 27%
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/04/farmer-who-objected-to-rihanna-outfit-loses-council-seat/?ncid=webmail
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rural_voter said:
> > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April).
> > > >
> > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349
> > > >
> > > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9%
> > > >
> > > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats.
> > > >
> > > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2
> > > ___________________
> > >
> > > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional.
> > >
> > > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties.
> > >
> > > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect.
> >
> > Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system.
> >
> > Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats?
>
> No I believe that votes should be closely proportional to seats. So a party on 30% would get 1.5x as many seats as a party on 20%, not nearly 2x. Also a party on 9% should get 3.3x fewer seats than the party on 30%, not no seats at all.
But that isn't what you said. Your exact words were:
"The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running"
You can rightly bemoan the fact that there is not perfect proportionality but it is wrong to blame pro-Brexit parties getting the most seats on the system. They get the most seats because they get the most votes (again assuming they do actually get the most votes).
If you are that bothered by fairness you would be better off moaning about UKIP getting 12% of the vote and 0.15% of the seats at the 2015 GE.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
> > >
> > > It would then be Brexit Party first, LDs second, Labour third, Tories 4th if that was correct
> >
> > Nah, that just silly. They only got 19% in locals without Change or Brexit to fight.
> > They might beat the Tories on a total meltdown
>
> Yougov had Labour plunging to just 15% just over a week ago tied with the Tories and LDs if Labour backed the Brexit Deal plus Customs Union but no confirmatory referendum with a Remain option.
>
> The Brexit Party was ahead on 27%
Can't see it, would ge very amused to be wrong
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @rural_voter said:
> > > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > > I've been looking at the latest YG/Times European Parliament Voting Intention (fieldwork 29-30 April).
> > > > >
> > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf?goal=0_494ca252da-96e8f0184e-312615349
> > > > >
> > > > > Con 13% Lab 21%, LD 10%, Green 9%, Brexit 30%, CHUK 9%
> > > > >
> > > > > It will probably change following yesterday's results, but for what it's worth, putting the regional figures (small samples) through my D'Hondt model, gives the following result in seats.
> > > > >
> > > > > Con 9, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 4, Brex 28, CHUK 2, SNP 2
> > > > ___________________
> > > >
> > > > Mostly because the 'PR' system imposed by Labour in 1999 is not, er, proportional.
> > > >
> > > > I belonged to them long, long ago before I realised what a stitch-up UK politics was between the two largest parties.
> > > >
> > > > The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running: 40% of the seats on 30% of the vote. It's almost like FPTP and that's deliberate I suspect.
> > >
> > > Surely it is the fact that they get the most votes (if indeed they do) which gives them the most seats rather than any 'imposed' PR system.
> > >
> > > Or are you saying the party with the largest number of votes should not have the largest number of seats?
> >
> > No I believe that votes should be closely proportional to seats. So a party on 30% would get 1.5x as many seats as a party on 20%, not nearly 2x. Also a party on 9% should get 3.3x fewer seats than the party on 30%, not no seats at all.
>
> But that isn't what you said. Your exact words were:
>
> "The Labour-imposed 'PR' system now makes Brexit-loons the largest party on seats for the 2nd EU election running"
>
> You can rightly bemoan the fact that there is not perfect proportionality but it is wrong to blame pro-Brexit parties getting the most seats on the system. They get the most seats because they get the most votes (again assuming they do actually get the most votes).
>
> If you are that bothered by fairness you would be better off moaning about UKIP getting 12% of the vote and 0.15% of the seats at the 2015 GE.
I did moan about it being most unfair, maybe not on here but I don't spend all the time on PB and indeed I'm now going out. It's a lovely afternoon in the W Midlands. Bye bye ...
> Karma's a bitch...
>
> https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/05/04/farmer-who-objected-to-rihanna-outfit-loses-council-seat/?ncid=webmail
And that's karma how?
> I'm gonna put my head on the block with an outlandish prediction. The party of government will finish 5th in the capital.......
They might be fifth overall...
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > I'm gonna put my head on the block with an outlandish prediction. The party of government will finish 5th in the capital.......
>
> They might be fifth overall...
Oh that would be chuckletastic
From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
>
> From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
>
Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> Lol @ spurs
> The UKIP of the premier league
Bournemouth look about as able to score as May does to pass her MV
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Davis rules himself out of leadership race:
> >
> > "the standout candidate is Dominic Raab, so I will back him if he runs."
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6991155/DAVID-DAVIS-dont-want-Prime-Minister-Ill-vote-Dominic-Raab.html
>
> Raab stands out as being a lightweight ToryBoy.
I really have very little impression of him, but resigning because at best he had no idea what was going on seems not outstanding.
> Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. The DUP are up slightly on 2014, but may win fewer seats due to fielding too many candidates in some DEA's. The UUP will probably come very close overall to its score in 2014.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> >
> > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> >
>
> Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Lol @ spurs
> > The UKIP of the premier league
>
> Bournemouth look about as able to score as May does to pass her MV
Yep, even Liverpool Nil should be ahead by now against the 9 kicky kick kickers
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
>
> I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
>
> I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP. The DUP are up slightly on 2014, but may win fewer seats due to fielding too many candidates in some DEA's. The UUP will probably come very close overall to its score in 2014.
You can see how polarised things get at Parliamentary level, by the fact that Sinn Fein and the DUP have won 47.5% between them in these elections, but took 64% in the general election.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > >
> > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > >
> >
> > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
>
> They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
"<i>Speaking on David Tennant's podcast, US writer and actress Tina Fey revealed that, while leader, Mr Cameron implored her to lobby the British TV industry to churn out as many episodes as US shows do</i>"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48021899
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > > >
> > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > > >
> > >
> > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> >
> > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
>
> I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
> I'm gonna put my head on the block with an outlandish prediction. The party of government will finish 5th in the capital.......
>
> They could be sixth if the Greens get on a roll.
7th behind the Hot Chick Equality Party
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > > > >
> > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> > >
> > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> >
> > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
>
> Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> > > >
> > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> > >
> > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
> >
> > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
>
> Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> > > > >
> > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> > > >
> > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
> > >
> > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
> >
> > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
>
> I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again.
Yeah, he had a very indistinct face and no discernable accent, was moving abroad I think
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> > > > > >
> > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> > > > >
> > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
> > > >
> > > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
> > >
> > > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
> >
> > I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again.
>
> Yeah, he had a very indistinct face and no discernable accent, was moving abroad I think
So you did meet him?
The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124654584218247168
So more media posturing without any constructive suggestions.
I wonder if Conservative MPs think their actions encourage people to vote for the party.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> >
> > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
>
> Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences):
DUP 24.4%
Sinn Fein 23.1%
UUP 14.9%
SDLP 12.7%
Alliance 11.1%
> Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
I think a Labour meltdown and difficulty getting out either their Leave or Remain votes. I reckon the 50/1 from Shadsy on Lab under 10%, which I got boosted to 60/1, is not a bad punt. Probably 5/1 would be more like reality.
> Yes! Spurs still on for failing to qualify.
Son banned for Everton too ?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124654584218247168
>
> So more media posturing without any constructive suggestions.
>
> I wonder if Conservative MPs think their actions encourage people to vote for the party.
People accuse them of putting party before country. I'm not sure how many of them even care about their party, let alone their country.
> https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
>
> The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
☺
That never ends well. Tear up your slip when that happens.
> https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
>
> The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
As we say in my profession: There's a lot of it about!
> https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
>
> The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots.
I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > > > > Totally O/T, but what is it about driving in Peterborough?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > From the BBC: 'Officers stopped a car in Lincoln Road, Peterborough, on Friday after they recognised the man behind the wheel as a banned driver.
> > > > > > > > > On Twitter, Beds Cambs and Herts Road Policing said: "He has 51 points on his licence. Yes, that is 51."'
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Lol, short of imprisonment youre not stopping him driving
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > They confiscated his Merc, apparently. Number plate was obscured, so couldn't see age. Looked fairly new.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I have a suspicion he will secure a new vehicle.....
> > > > >
> > > > > Allegedly there are places in the Fens where 'things' can be 'found'!
> > > >
> > > > Indeed. I have heard tale of such things. I know nothing personally of course, only via word of mouth
> > >
> > > I was told by a man in a pub. I was just passing through, and happened to drop in. No, don't think I could find him again.
> >
> > Yeah, he had a very indistinct face and no discernable accent, was moving abroad I think
>
> So you did meet him?
Friend of an associate of a friend, nothing traceable.. I mean nothing serious
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
> >
> > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
>
> I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots.
>
> I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas.
Will he impress anywhere ?
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> > >
> > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
> >
> > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
>
> For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences):
>
> DUP 24.4%
> Sinn Fein 23.1%
> UUP 14.9%
> SDLP 12.7%
> Alliance 11.1%
Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Yes! Spurs still on for failing to qualify.
>
> Son banned for Everton too ?
Hopefully. I ran a pub frequented by a slew of Spurs fans. I enjoy their misfortune.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Yes! Spurs still on for failing to qualify.
>
> Son banned for Everton too ?
Hmm, I captained him in FF this week too.
No wonder I am fighting TSE for the wooden spoon in the PB FF League.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> > > >
> > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
> > >
> > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
> >
> > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences):
> >
> > DUP 24.4%
> > Sinn Fein 23.1%
> > UUP 14.9%
> > SDLP 12.7%
> > Alliance 11.1%
>
> Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides.
Alliance are up by nearly 4%, Unionists and nationalists down by nearly 2% each, suggesting they probably got their extra votes evenly from each side. Although Alliance have polled best in predominantly unionist areas (as usual) they have got some councillors elected in nationalist areas this time around.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
> > >
> > > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
> >
> > I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots.
> >
> > I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas.
>
> Will he impress anywhere ?
He does seem to have the frothy mouthed vote sewn up, and that may play well to the party selectorate. I don't think they are that bothered what the voting public think.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
> >
> > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
>
> I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots.
>
> I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas.
If he cannot appeal to the Tories’ new core vote, what hope has he?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124654584218247168
>
> So more media posturing without any constructive suggestions.
>
> I wonder if Conservative MPs think their actions encourage people to vote for the party.
IDS must know that his political career is nearing its end, with his seat about to be lost. He has little to lose.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> > > > >
> > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
> > > >
> > > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
> > >
> > > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences):
> > >
> > > DUP 24.4%
> > > Sinn Fein 23.1%
> > > UUP 14.9%
> > > SDLP 12.7%
> > > Alliance 11.1%
> >
> > Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides.
>
> Alliance are up by nearly 4%, Unionists and nationalists down by nearly 2% each, suggesting they probably got their extra votes evenly from each side. Although Alliance have polled best in predominantly unionist areas (as usual) they have got some councillors elected in nationalist areas this time around.
Yes; candidates in the far West for, IIRC, the first time. I wonder if it'll make any difference to DUP mindset?
It is “based on last week’s results”
Corbyn is a very effective campaigner. I believe he will face more scrutiny and get fewer “free hit” votes so will do less well but your complacency is very alarming
> > @Cicero said:
> > Thanks for the friendly comments on my guesses for the locals. Of course I got the sizes wrong, but I was convinced that Labour would go down, Tories would have a bad night and Lib Dem and others would have a very good night. In a spirit of outrageous hubris my guess for the Euros is that unless Codbyn goes for a PV in the interim, that the Lib Dems will out poll both the Tories and Labour.
>
> I think a Labour meltdown and difficulty getting out either their Leave or Remain votes. I reckon the 50/1 from Shadsy on Lab under 10%, which I got boosted to 60/1, is not a bad punt. Probably 5/1 would be more like reality.
Yes. Quasi Ref on Europe so pointless voting anything except BP, LD, CH, GR.
> Can we all agree that come rain, shine or Steve Davis making a comeback, John Virgo remains a dreadful commentator?
Hes somewhat dour
Very amusing that the BBC cameramen were on strike when he won his only title as a player
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
>
> > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit).
>
>
>
> Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
>
> When did the Tories disenfranchise young people?
The franchise was exactly the same as is used for general elections and the 2011 AV referendum?
Irish and UK citizens who were resident here can still vote for 15 years once they move abroad. One has to ask if you have lived somewhere else for 15 years why don't you take citizenship where you live and pay taxes - and vote there - as most countries would allow that for legal permanent residents.
What is of course odd is why we allow Commonwealth nationals to vote where in all but a few exceptions there are no reciprocal arrangements for Brits living in Commonwealth member states to vote in their general elections.
As for kids getting the vote some 10 year olds and more mature than some 16 year olds - how low do you go? Toddlers for a people's vote - they will see the effects of Brexit longer than anyone wont they?
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > > Still keeping an eye of the N. Irish elections. 121 seats yet to de allotted, according to the BBNC and it looks, almost, as though Alliance could overtake the SDLP in numbers of councillors. That would give them 4th place; long way to go to catch SF and the DUP of course.
> > > > > > > DUP and UUP are not, so far, doing as well as last time, but there might be some transfers which help them.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I think the SDLP will pull ahead of Alliance on transfers. It was a good night for Alliance, but they won about 11% to about 13% for SDLP.
> > > > >
> > > > > Suspect you may be right, but we are beginning to look at where the votes were, though.
> > > >
> > > > For the top five, the result was (in terms of first preferences):
> > > >
> > > > DUP 24.4%
> > > > Sinn Fein 23.1%
> > > > UUP 14.9%
> > > > SDLP 12.7%
> > > > Alliance 11.1%
> > >
> > > Good effort for the Alliance, however it turns out. Rather looks as though they took a higher proportion of their votes from previously Unionist voters, but that's on a first scan. Might just be from younger voters from both sides.
> >
> > Alliance are up by nearly 4%, Unionists and nationalists down by nearly 2% each, suggesting they probably got their extra votes evenly from each side. Although Alliance have polled best in predominantly unionist areas (as usual) they have got some councillors elected in nationalist areas this time around.
>
> Yes; candidates in the far West for, IIRC, the first time. I wonder if it'll make any difference to DUP mindset?
Turnout was a very impressive 52% in Northern Ireland.