> @ydoethur said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > Can we all agree that come rain, shine or Steve Davis making a comeback, John Virgo remains a dreadful commentator? > > > > Hes somewhat dour > > I don't mind his dourness, it's his inability to STFU I object to.
Mr. Doethur, not watching the snooker. What's riled you? His general grumpiness?
No. It's his constant need to talk pointless rubbish. He wasted three whole minutes commenting on John Higgins' family while David Gilbert was at the table.
I think this match is going to be close - might even go to a decider. Higgins hasn't got the control he once had and Gilbert is scrapping like anything. Great fun to watch.
In terms of predictions, I was very much in the 800-1000 range for Conservative losses and thought 500 the top end of LD gains so not very good there. I did suggest Guildford would be one to watch and the Conservative collapse to both LDs and especially the Independent groups R4GV and GGG. Indeed, the Conservative collapse eclipsed the 1995 rout.
Across Surrey the Conservatives lost Mole Valley to the LDs and lost control of Tandridge, Waverley and Guildford. In Surrey Heath, a majority of 29 ended as a majority of 1. In Runnymede a majority of 27 fell to 11 with perhaps the best result in Woking where only one seat was lost.
It's also worth noting the Independent won the County Council by-election in Haslemere with a huge majority.
The three salient points are 1) the combined poor Con-Lab result makes agreement between the two to push Brexit forward more likely, 2) it weakens the hand of CUK in negotiations with the LDs and 3) it looks as though there is a solid BP vote coming out on 23/5 which may make it an uncomfortable following Sunday evening for the Prime Minister.
> @Charles said: > > @houndtang said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On last night's results it will only be PM Corbyn if he gets LD support > > > > > > > > > > Which despite their protests why would they not, if the alternative was another election or Tory control. Many lds seem very happy to work with the greens in theory, so an arrangement with Corbyn seems pretty easy for the right price. > > > > > > > > Possibly but the best possible way to revive Tory fortunes electorally would be for PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and SNP with the Tories having opposition largely to themselves under Boris and Davidson hammering the Corbyn and Sturgeon pact in Scotland > > > > > > This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever. > > > > If Corbyn won a landslide next time you might be right and it would take at least a decade for the Tories to get back in by which time the damage could have been done. > > > > However as last week confirmed if Corbyn does become PM it will only be propped up the SNP and LDs and they will block a hard left socialist agenda while forcing Corbyn to dilute Brexit if not cancel it altogether > > It wasn’t “as confirmed last week” > > It is “based on last week’s results” > > Corbyn is a very effective campaigner. I believe he will face more scrutiny and get fewer “free hit” votes so will do less well but your complacency is very alarming
As someone who has spent the last few weeks spending virtually every weekend and most weekday evenings canvassing for the Tories over the last month I am certainly not being 'complacent.' How much work have you been putting in?
However Corbyn only got to 40% at the last general election due to the fact diehard Remainers voted Labour as they thought it would stop Brexit, now Corbyn is still refusing to commit to a second referendum Labour is down to 30% in the polls and it was the LDs, not Labour, who took seats off Labour last week while it will be the Brexit Party, not Labour, who make the biggest gains from the Tories in the European Parliament elections
> @Foxy said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21 > > > > > > > > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off. > > > > > > I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots. > > > > > > I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas. > > > > Will he impress anywhere ? > > He does seem to have the frothy mouthed vote sewn up, and that may play well to the party selectorate. I don't think they are that bothered what the voting public think. Raab is more electable than Hunt or Gove at the moment but less electable than Boris.
Rory Stewart might be more electable than all of the above now he has declared himself a candidate but only if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed and Brexit is delivered
I note David Davis and Andrea Jenkyns have handed Dominic Rabb the black spot ....
Somewhat like @Roger giving political tips or @TSE giving sartorial advice - One might feel sorry for Rabb but for the fact that as a politician he's flattered to deceive and makes Chris Grayling look a titan in comparison.
> Can we all agree that come rain, shine or Steve Davis making a comeback, John Virgo remains a dreadful commentator?
Hes somewhat dour
I don't mind his dourness, it's his inability to STFU I object to.
McManus is the best by far
That I would certainly agree with. Highly intelligent, very observant, lovely voice and only speaks when he has something to say. Absolute gem and credit to the BBC for hiring him.
> @JackW said: > I note David Davis and Andrea Jenkyns have handed Dominic Rabb the black spot .... > > Somewhat like @Roger giving political tips or @TSE giving sartorial advice - One might feel sorry for Rabb but for the fact that as a politician he's flattered to deceive and makes Chris Grayling look a titan in comparison.
Come, come Rabb's not that bad! Not good, I grant you, but that bad!!!!
'Folks, I can tell you I’ve known eight presidents, three of them intimately.”
So Buttigieg would not be the first gay president?
Although of course, George H. Bush famously announced he and Reagan were in a *cough* intimate relationship while announcing his candidacy.
More seriously, although that is a brilliant parody site, you wonder how a man with that much baggage who is nearer 80 than 70 will go in the primaries.
> @ydoethur said: > Great Joe Biden parody site that features higher up on Google searches than the real thing. > > > > https://joebiden.info/ > > Rather a startling comment here: > > 'Folks, I can tell you I’ve known eight presidents, three of them intimately.” > > So Buttigieg would not be the first gay president? > > Although of course, George H. Bush famously announced he and Reagan were in a *cough* intimate relationship while announcing his candidacy. > > More seriously, although that is a brilliant parody site, you wonder how a man with that much baggage who is nearer 80 than 70 will go in the primaries.
If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
> @Charles said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit). > > > > Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab. > > When did the Tories disenfranchise young people?
Even worse, this is really no longer about Brexit. It has become a row about the political class, how our democracy works, or even if we should still bother having a democracy operating in the way it has in last hundred years or so. Farage understands this.
Sadly, I can't see how this country avoids its Trump moment now.
Its the Trump strategy. Though Corbyn also did well with public rallies. In some ways it is good to see the grassroots becoming active. Very likely to be mostly stoking up undeliverable expectations.
Even worse, this is really no longer about Brexit. It has become a row about the political class, how our democracy works, or even if we should still bother having a democracy operating in the way it has in last hundred years or so. Farage understands this.
Sadly, I can't see how this country avoids its Trump moment now.
Let's hope I am wrong.
This can’t be surprising? I have banged on about this for ages, MPs promising to respect the referendum result, then conspiring to vote against every way of making it happen, might impress lawyers, themselves and general clever cloggs’s, but the public won’t have it.
> @Foxy said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > Yes! Spurs still on for failing to qualify. > > > > Son banned for Everton too ? > > Hmm, I captained him in FF this week too. > > No wonder I am fighting TSE for the wooden spoon in the PB FF League.
The FF is my only consolation and distraction after todays farce.
Historically, Farage has done very well at EU/PR elections, and very poorly at FPTP General Elections.
That might change.
Conservatives going for a customs union to avert a drubbing at the European elections might find themselves receiving a punishment beating in the rather more important General Election instead.
> @isam said: > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool: > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400 > > > > Even worse, this is really no longer about Brexit. It has become a row about the political class, how our democracy works, or even if we should still bother having a democracy operating in the way it has in last hundred years or so. Farage understands this. > > Sadly, I can't see how this country avoids its Trump moment now. > > Let's hope I am wrong. > > This can’t be surprising? I have banged on about this for ages, MPs promising to respect the referendum result, then conspiring to vote against every way of making it happen, might impress lawyers, themselves and general clever cloggs’s, but the public won’t have it.
A similarly large, quite possibly larger, group of the public will be as bitter and angry at having an unwanted Brexit forced on them. May's Brexit is the unflushable turd that nobody owns.
> @rottenborough said: > Blackpool is pure copycat Trump rally (even with shouts of 'lock her up'). > > No doubt Steve Bannon has been having a helpful word with Nigel.
Are the Broadcasters covering this? Election campaign restrictions should now have kicked in.
> @ydoethur said: > Doesn't look as though the Home Office its staffed by Remainers. > > I thought the Home Office was staffed exclusively by people barred from voting on grounds of mental disadvantage.
Can you actually do that? Must admit that when I was involved with institutions for care of 'people like that' elections were never discussed.
These are the diehards though, it is the more moderate Leavers who will give the Brexit Party first place in the European Parliament elections and they are less bothered by the nature of a Brexit Deal provided we actually do finally leave the EU
> If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.
Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
> @rottenborough said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685 > > > > > > > > > > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off. > > > > > > I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots. > > > > > > I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas. > > > > Will he impress anywhere ? > > Farage as Tory Leader would piss up vs Corbo > > Where is Boris going to get enough MP votes if ERG types are all going for Raab? > > Membership will go nuts if Boris isn't in final two.
If Boris is not in the final two it will be Raab who has replaced him and the membership will just vote for Raab instead.
Latest predictions though give Boris 50 MPs and Raab just 20
> @kinabalu said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless > > Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren. > > Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
It was Terry's 0.01% American Indian blood which made him so ruthless when repelling attacks.
> @Pulpstar said: > Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ?
Indeed unless Boris or Raab are leading the Tories by then
> @Pulpstar said: > Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ?
There's going to be a recession at some point as well.
> @kinabalu said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless > > Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren. > > Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
Warren is hapless, she is the only candidate Trump beat in a recent poll.
Plus I said she was 'John Kerry in a skirt' if she was 'John Terry in a skirt' she might have more appeal to the white working class
Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
I think if Jess was leader of the Labour Party our fortunes would improve. I find her a bit annoying at times, but she is a straight talker, inhabits the real world and isn't obsessed by issues that mean nothing to most voters.
The notion of her and Soubry in the same party is bonkers. So it will probably happen.
> @Cicero said: > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19 > > > > Time to stop appeasing these loons. > > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals. > > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same. > > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
Well said
They are driving my wife and I into the remain camp.
TM deal or we remain. However, I do not like TM stitching a deal with Corbyn
> @Cicero said: > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19 > > > > Time to stop appeasing these loons. > > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals. > > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same. > > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Cicero said: > > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19 > > > > > > Time to stop appeasing these loons. > > > > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals. > > > > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same. > > > > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will. > > Well said > > They are driving my wife and I into the remain camp. > > TM deal or we remain. However, I do not like TM stitching a deal with Corbyn
> @rottenborough said: > Impressed with Lewis Goodall. He is turning into Sky's John Harris.
I am not a fan. He speaks far too quickly and is very much a labour supporter having been in the IPPR and is writing a book on the labour party and the future of the left
> @HYUFD said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ? > > Indeed unless Boris or Raab are leading the Tories by then
Maybe Farage will be leading the Conservatives by then.
> @Cicero said: > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19 > > > > Time to stop appeasing these loons. > > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals. > > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same. > > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ? > > > > Indeed unless Boris or Raab are leading the Tories by then > > Maybe Farage will be leading the Conservatives by then.
Unlikely though he was second favourite to Boris with Tory councillors to succeed May and that was before many of them lost their seats on Thursday
> @HYUFD said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless > > > > Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren. > > > > Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced. > > Warren is hapless, she is the only candidate Trump beat in a recent poll. > > Plus I said she was 'John Kerry in a skirt' if she was 'John Terry in a skirt' she might have more appeal to the white working class >
😊 now that is a thought.
Wonder if the white working class might have peaked in the US though. I think a different coalition might prevail next time. Danger of fighting the last war.
Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
Quite. And we've heard that they believe they are close to deals with the DUP or the EU many times and it turns out to be nonsense. The theory it is just about stringing things along to widen the tory split makes sense.
> @kinabalu said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless > > > > > > Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren. > > > > > > Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced. > > > > Warren is hapless, she is the only candidate Trump beat in a recent poll. > > > > Plus I said she was 'John Kerry in a skirt' if she was 'John Terry in a skirt' she might have more appeal to the white working class > > > > 😊 now that is a thought. > > Wonder if the white working class might have peaked in the US though. I think a different coalition might prevail next time. Danger of fighting the last war.
It has not peaked yet in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and if Trump wins those again he almost certainly wins the Electoral College and is reelected even if he loses the popular vote again
I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> @another_richard said: > > @Cicero said: > > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19 > > > > > > Time to stop appeasing these loons. > > > > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals. > > > > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same. > > > > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will. > > Farage and the ERG nutters don't want to leave.
Brexit is of course about so much more than Brexit - it defines people in more ways than your position on leaving the EU. Its essentially a culture and values battle - its no longer solely about leaving the EU.
And that is why it will continue to be a salient issue for many.
UKIP frankly is a busted flush and hardly stood anywhere on Thursday - the Brexit party is a whole different ball game as it is clear as it is nebulous in what it wants to achieve and is very slick.
Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
> @HYUFD said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20 > > > > > > I doubt she will succeed in a compromise deal with Corbyn with her own party, let alone the HOC > > > > Time for a clear out of complacent Conservative MPs to follow the clear out of complacent Conservative councillors. > > May's Deal plus Customs Union was just 3 short of a majority in the Commons indicative votes, closer to a majority than No Deal, revoke or EUref2
Which might suggest that it should be close to get over the line. But many who voted for it wanted a referendum as well, on any deal, so it is not as close to being a solution as it seems, since the actualy preferred endgame is not CU for many who did vote for CU
How many euphemisms can you get for a customs union? What does it even mean in practice as presumably it will need to be negotiated with the EU - or is it another unicorn where we pretend we are free agents in terms of trade deals but aren't really.
A people's customs union, a confirmatory customs union, a second version of the EU customs union?
May and Corbyn may agree it but does it follow their parties will follow - and what about the confirmatory public vote.
I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
There would however be a delicious irony if Corbyn, elected so the left could feel good about themselves, became the first Labour leader to do a peacetime deal with the Tories since Ramsay Macdonald in 1931.
> @kinabalu said: > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
If Labour does not deliver Brexit it risks losing Labour Leave seats to the Brexit Party or Tories at the next GE
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > Finish the Tories for a generation
> @brendan16 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > May and Corbyn may agree it but does it follow their parties will follow - and what about the confirmatory public vote.
The question the majority of Lab MPs will ask. Because they do not want a deal of any kind.
That the only Brexit on offer is a Labour Brexit was pointed out by BigJohn months ago. Tories can cry about that as much as they like, and may well believe remain is better than that, but it is a lot more likely than no deal or Mays' deal.
And frankly while I do not know if a CU is as bad as people say it is, a Brexit deal that is backed by significant numbers of Lab and Tory MPs seems to be a reasonable thing to my mind, showing that on this divisive issue which should cross parties, there has been cross party work, eventually.
But like you I don't see how they can get their parties to follow in enough numbers, which itself removes reason to agree one.
> @kle4 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates? > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350 > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
> @NorthofStoke said: > I'm afraid that I believe the LP "permanent CU" is the worst outcome. For me in descending order it is remain, May's deal, hard Brexit, permanent CU. You can still do trade deals on services with a permanent CU even if not on goods. It is not as good as May's Deal as is but the only compromise left and of course the PD is not legally binding
> @HYUFD said: > > @NorthofStoke said: > > I'm afraid that I believe the LP "permanent CU" is the worst outcome. For me in descending order it is remain, May's deal, hard Brexit, permanent CU. > You can still do trade deals on services with a permanent CU even if not on goods. It is not as good as May's Deal as is but the only compromise left and of course the PD is not legally binding
Comments
> > @ydoethur said:
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> > Can we all agree that come rain, shine or Steve Davis making a comeback, John Virgo remains a dreadful commentator?
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> I don't mind his dourness, it's his inability to STFU I object to.
Pot as many balls as you can
I think this match is going to be close - might even go to a decider. Higgins hasn't got the control he once had and Gilbert is scrapping like anything. Great fun to watch.
In terms of predictions, I was very much in the 800-1000 range for Conservative losses and thought 500 the top end of LD gains so not very good there. I did suggest Guildford would be one to watch and the Conservative collapse to both LDs and especially the Independent groups R4GV and GGG. Indeed, the Conservative collapse eclipsed the 1995 rout.
Across Surrey the Conservatives lost Mole Valley to the LDs and lost control of Tandridge, Waverley and Guildford. In Surrey Heath, a majority of 29 ended as a majority of 1. In Runnymede a majority of 27 fell to 11 with perhaps the best result in Woking where only one seat was lost.
It's also worth noting the Independent won the County Council by-election in Haslemere with a huge majority.
The three salient points are 1) the combined poor Con-Lab result makes agreement between the two to push Brexit forward more likely, 2) it weakens the hand of CUK in negotiations with the LDs and 3) it looks as though there is a solid BP vote coming out on 23/5 which may make it an uncomfortable following Sunday evening for the Prime Minister.
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> > > >
>
> > > > Which despite their protests why would they not, if the alternative was another election or Tory control. Many lds seem very happy to work with the greens in theory, so an arrangement with Corbyn seems pretty easy for the right price.
>
> > >
>
> > > Possibly but the best possible way to revive Tory fortunes electorally would be for PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and SNP with the Tories having opposition largely to themselves under Boris and Davidson hammering the Corbyn and Sturgeon pact in Scotland
>
> >
>
> > This idea that ''' Corbyn will be so bad we'll be back with a landslide in no time" is really dangerous. Corbyn and his followers will not give up power lightly. There will be votes at 16, manipulation of boundaries, a blind eye turned to all kinds of voting irregularities, demographic changes that will favour Labour... And in the meantime everything Tories hold dear - private education, the army, Parliament, tradition, monarchy - will be irreversibly undermined or dismantled. If these Berks allow a Corbyn government they will regret it forever.
>
>
>
> If Corbyn won a landslide next time you might be right and it would take at least a decade for the Tories to get back in by which time the damage could have been done.
>
>
>
> However as last week confirmed if Corbyn does become PM it will only be propped up the SNP and LDs and they will block a hard left socialist agenda while forcing Corbyn to dilute Brexit if not cancel it altogether
>
> It wasn’t “as confirmed last week”
>
> It is “based on last week’s results”
>
> Corbyn is a very effective campaigner. I believe he will face more scrutiny and get fewer “free hit” votes so will do less well but your complacency is very alarming
As someone who has spent the last few weeks spending virtually every weekend and most weekday evenings canvassing for the Tories over the last month I am certainly not being 'complacent.' How much work have you been putting in?
However Corbyn only got to 40% at the last general election due to the fact diehard Remainers voted Labour as they thought it would stop Brexit, now Corbyn is still refusing to commit to a second referendum Labour is down to 30% in the polls and it was the LDs, not Labour, who took seats off Labour last week while it will be the Brexit Party, not Labour, who make the biggest gains from the Tories in the European Parliament elections
Alas, for the days of free-to-air F1 with Murray Walker.
"There's nothing wrong with the car except that it's on fire."
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685?s=21
> > > >
> > > > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
> > >
> > > I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots.
> > >
> > > I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas.
> >
> > Will he impress anywhere ?
>
> He does seem to have the frothy mouthed vote sewn up, and that may play well to the party selectorate. I don't think they are that bothered what the voting public think.
Raab is more electable than Hunt or Gove at the moment but less electable than Boris.
Rory Stewart might be more electable than all of the above now he has declared himself a candidate but only if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed and Brexit is delivered
Let us thank God for small mercies...
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124654584218247168
IDS I think voted against May last December anyway
Somewhat like @Roger giving political tips or @TSE giving sartorial advice - One might feel sorry for Rabb but for the fact that as a politician he's flattered to deceive and makes Chris Grayling look a titan in comparison.
> I note David Davis and Andrea Jenkyns have handed Dominic Rabb the black spot ....
>
> Somewhat like @Roger giving political tips or @TSE giving sartorial advice - One might feel sorry for Rabb but for the fact that as a politician he's flattered to deceive and makes Chris Grayling look a titan in comparison.
Come, come Rabb's not that bad! Not good, I grant you, but that bad!!!!
https://joebiden.info/
As I say, this could well go the distance.
'Folks, I can tell you I’ve known eight presidents, three of them intimately.”
So Buttigieg would not be the first gay president?
Although of course, George H. Bush famously announced he and Reagan were in a *cough* intimate relationship while announcing his candidacy.
More seriously, although that is a brilliant parody site, you wonder how a man with that much baggage who is nearer 80 than 70 will go in the primaries.
> Great Joe Biden parody site that features higher up on Google searches than the real thing.
>
>
>
> https://joebiden.info/
>
> Rather a startling comment here:
>
> 'Folks, I can tell you I’ve known eight presidents, three of them intimately.”
>
> So Buttigieg would not be the first gay president?
>
> Although of course, George H. Bush famously announced he and Reagan were in a *cough* intimate relationship while announcing his candidacy.
>
> More seriously, although that is a brilliant parody site, you wonder how a man with that much baggage who is nearer 80 than 70 will go in the primaries.
If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
>
> > Gerrymandering was the core of the Conservatives' boundaries review (and ironically may have cost Cameron his job by stacking the electorate in favour of Brexit).
>
>
>
> Stacking the electorate in favour of brexit was a joint Lab/Con effort. Lab disfranchized overseas residents because they thought they voted Con, then Con disfranchized young people because they thought they voted Lab.
>
> When did the Tories disenfranchise young people?
They didn't. Edmund is just making stuff up.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
It's also disturbing to think Widdecombe was once Shadow Home Secretary.
> At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
>
Oh dear...
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124681264911540224
Sadly, I can't see how this country avoids its Trump moment now.
Let's hope I am wrong.
> At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
Time to stop appeasing these loons.
> > @Foxy said:
> > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> >
>
> Oh dear...
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124681264911540224
Its the Trump strategy. Though Corbyn also did well with public rallies. In some ways it is good to see the grassroots becoming active. Very likely to be mostly stoking up undeliverable expectations.
Membership will go nuts if Boris isn't in final two.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > Yes! Spurs still on for failing to qualify.
> >
> > Son banned for Everton too ?
>
> Hmm, I captained him in FF this week too.
>
> No wonder I am fighting TSE for the wooden spoon in the PB FF League.
The FF is my only consolation and distraction after todays farce.
> Great Joe Biden parody site that features higher up on Google searches than the real thing.
>
> https://joebiden.info/
In the real world he is 30 PTS ahead of the Dem field.
Everyone in the traditional parties should be terrified by this and trying to do something.
Farage could be their nemesis.
No doubt Steve Bannon has been having a helpful word with Nigel.
Historically, Farage has done very well at EU/PR elections, and very poorly at FPTP General Elections.
That might change.
Conservatives going for a customs union to avert a drubbing at the European elections might find themselves receiving a punishment beating in the rather more important General Election instead.
> At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400
>
>
>
> Even worse, this is really no longer about Brexit. It has become a row about the political class, how our democracy works, or even if we should still bother having a democracy operating in the way it has in last hundred years or so. Farage understands this.
>
> Sadly, I can't see how this country avoids its Trump moment now.
>
> Let's hope I am wrong.
>
> This can’t be surprising? I have banged on about this for ages, MPs promising to respect the referendum result, then conspiring to vote against every way of making it happen, might impress lawyers, themselves and general clever cloggs’s, but the public won’t have it.
Part of the public @isam.
A similarly large, quite possibly larger, group of the public will be as bitter and angry at having an unwanted Brexit forced on them. May's Brexit is the unflushable turd that nobody owns.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124684070410170373
>
> Everyone in the traditional parties should be terrified by this and trying to do something.
>
> Farage could be their nemesis.
Doesn't look as though the Home Office its staffed by Remainers.
> Blackpool is pure copycat Trump rally (even with shouts of 'lock her up').
>
> No doubt Steve Bannon has been having a helpful word with Nigel.
Are the Broadcasters covering this? Election campaign restrictions should now have kicked in.
> Doesn't look as though the Home Office its staffed by Remainers.
>
> I thought the Home Office was staffed exclusively by people barred from voting on grounds of mental disadvantage.
Can you actually do that? Must admit that when I was involved with institutions for care of 'people like that' elections were never discussed.
> At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
These are the diehards though, it is the more moderate Leavers who will give the Brexit Party first place in the European Parliament elections and they are less bothered by the nature of a Brexit Deal provided we actually do finally leave the EU
> If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.
Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1124663933527367685
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > The greyhound is out of the traps before the rabbit has set off.
>
> >
>
> > I am unable to find the words suitable for these idiots.
>
> >
>
> > I will suggest though that a lightweight ToryBoy like Raab will not impress in Northern working class areas.
>
>
>
> Will he impress anywhere ?
>
> Farage as Tory Leader would piss up vs Corbo
>
> Where is Boris going to get enough MP votes if ERG types are all going for Raab?
>
> Membership will go nuts if Boris isn't in final two.
If Boris is not in the final two it will be Raab who has replaced him and the membership will just vote for Raab instead.
Latest predictions though give Boris 50 MPs and Raab just 20
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124669446986113024?s=20
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124681819306196993?s=20
> At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
"If we leave, will we have left ?"
"NO!" Screams the crowd.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
>
> Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.
>
> Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
It was Terry's 0.01% American Indian blood which made him so ruthless when repelling attacks.
> Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ?
Indeed unless Boris or Raab are leading the Tories by then
> Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ?
There's going to be a recession at some point as well.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124668513984155648?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124669446986113024?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124681819306196993?s=20
Let a brexiteer take over and watch as he goes nowhere
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
>
> Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.
>
> Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
Warren is hapless, she is the only candidate Trump beat in a recent poll.
Plus I said she was 'John Kerry in a skirt' if she was 'John Terry in a skirt' she might have more appeal to the white working class
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-2020-polls-democrats-joe-biden-kamala-harris-buttigieg-beto-o-rourke-elizabeth-warren-a8897391.html
> > @Foxy said:
> > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
>
> Time to stop appeasing these loons.
Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
> https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1124686746741026817
I think if Jess was leader of the Labour Party our fortunes would improve. I find her a bit annoying at times, but she is a straight talker, inhabits the real world and isn't obsessed by issues that mean nothing to most voters.
The notion of her and Soubry in the same party is bonkers. So it will probably happen.
> > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
> >
> > Time to stop appeasing these loons.
>
> Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
>
> People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
>
> Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
Well said
They are driving my wife and I into the remain camp.
TM deal or we remain. However, I do not like TM stitching a deal with Corbyn
> > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
> >
> > Time to stop appeasing these loons.
>
> Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
>
> People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
>
> Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> Ave
Maria?
Edit: And welcome!
And, with that, I must be off.
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
> > >
> > > Time to stop appeasing these loons.
> >
> > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
> >
> > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
> >
> > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
>
> Well said
>
> They are driving my wife and I into the remain camp.
>
> TM deal or we remain. However, I do not like TM stitching a deal with Corbyn
I wonder how many people were at the rally.
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> Impressed with Lewis Goodall. He is turning into Sky's John Harris.
I am not a fan. He speaks far too quickly and is very much a labour supporter having been in the IPPR and is writing a book on the labour party and the future of the left
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
Spot on. May agreeing to Labour's compromise would be the worst possible outcome for us.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ?
>
> Indeed unless Boris or Raab are leading the Tories by then
Maybe Farage will be leading the Conservatives by then.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
>
> While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124587506710843392?s=20
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124588155854831616?s=20
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124591758438957057?s=20
> > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
> >
> > Time to stop appeasing these loons.
>
> Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
>
> People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
>
> Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
Farage and the ERG nutters don't want to leave.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20
I doubt she will succeed in a compromise deal with Corbyn with her own party, let alone the HOC
> UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
>
> Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
No, they are No Deal hardliners but compared to UKIP now yes
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20
>
> I doubt she will succeed in a compromise deal with Corbyn with her own party, let alone the HOC
Time for a clear out of complacent Conservative MPs to follow the clear out of complacent Conservative councillors.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Thought.. A very weak Labour Govt propped up by SNP, Green and Lib Dems is going to be a fertile place for the Brexit party at a national level ?
> >
> > Indeed unless Boris or Raab are leading the Tories by then
>
> Maybe Farage will be leading the Conservatives by then.
Unlikely though he was second favourite to Boris with Tory councillors to succeed May and that was before many of them lost their seats on Thursday
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124684070410170373
>
> Everyone in the traditional parties should be terrified by this and trying to do something.
>
> Farage could be their nemesis.
"We have a two party system which is no longer fit for purpose."
Does Farage have a one party system in mind?
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
> >
> > Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.
> >
> > Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
>
> Warren is hapless, she is the only candidate Trump beat in a recent poll.
>
> Plus I said she was 'John Kerry in a skirt' if she was 'John Terry in a skirt' she might have more appeal to the white working class
>
😊 now that is a thought.
Wonder if the white working class might have peaked in the US though. I think a different coalition might prevail next time. Danger of fighting the last war.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> >
> > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
>
> If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20
>
> I doubt she will succeed in a compromise deal with Corbyn with her own party, let alone the HOC
Quite. And we've heard that they believe they are close to deals with the DUP or the EU many times and it turns out to be nonsense. The theory it is just about stringing things along to widen the tory split makes sense.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > If he is beaten by anyone I think it will be Sanders or O'Rourke, New Hampshire and Iowa will be crucial and Biden needs to win at least one of them if he is to keep his momentum. I think he will win South Carolina regardless
> > >
> > > Let's not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.
> > >
> > > Despite your frequent denigration of her as 'John Terry in a skirt' I think she's a good candidate and looks overpriced.
> >
> > Warren is hapless, she is the only candidate Trump beat in a recent poll.
> >
> > Plus I said she was 'John Kerry in a skirt' if she was 'John Terry in a skirt' she might have more appeal to the white working class
> >
>
> 😊 now that is a thought.
>
> Wonder if the white working class might have peaked in the US though. I think a different coalition might prevail next time. Danger of fighting the last war.
It has not peaked yet in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and if Trump wins those again he almost certainly wins the Electoral College and is reelected even if he loses the popular vote again
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > At the Brexit party rally in Blackpool:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124673733136998400?s=19
> > >
> > > Time to stop appeasing these loons.
> >
> > Well quite... The fact is that they can not be appeased which is why "moderate Leavers" are beginning to give up on the whole idea. This stuff leaves an awful lot of people cold and could be a mistake of Sheffield Rally proportions... I think a few people don't seem to have digested the implications of UKIP getting such a kicking in the locals.
> >
> > People are sick of the drama and the incompetence, and Farage is offering more of the same.
> >
> > Its time to build bridges, not walls and Farage's sub-Trump schtick may not get quite the echo he thinks it will.
>
> Farage and the ERG nutters don't want to leave.
Brexit is of course about so much more than Brexit - it defines people in more ways than your position on leaving the EU. Its essentially a culture and values battle - its no longer solely about leaving the EU.
And that is why it will continue to be a salient issue for many.
UKIP frankly is a busted flush and hardly stood anywhere on Thursday - the Brexit party is a whole different ball game as it is clear as it is nebulous in what it wants to achieve and is very slick.
Lets see where we are on the evening of 26 May.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20
> >
> > I doubt she will succeed in a compromise deal with Corbyn with her own party, let alone the HOC
>
> Time for a clear out of complacent Conservative MPs to follow the clear out of complacent Conservative councillors.
May's Deal plus Customs Union was just 3 short of a majority in the Commons indicative votes, closer to a majority than No Deal, revoke or EUref2
> UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
>
> Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20
> > >
> > > I doubt she will succeed in a compromise deal with Corbyn with her own party, let alone the HOC
> >
> > Time for a clear out of complacent Conservative MPs to follow the clear out of complacent Conservative councillors.
>
> May's Deal plus Customs Union was just 3 short of a majority in the Commons indicative votes, closer to a majority than No Deal, revoke or EUref2
Which might suggest that it should be close to get over the line. But many who voted for it wanted a referendum as well, on any deal, so it is not as close to being a solution as it seems, since the actualy preferred endgame is not CU for many who did vote for CU
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124587506710843392?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124588155854831616?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124591758438957057?s=20
How many euphemisms can you get for a customs union? What does it even mean in practice as presumably it will need to be negotiated with the EU - or is it another unicorn where we pretend we are free agents in terms of trade deals but aren't really.
A people's customs union, a confirmatory customs union, a second version of the EU customs union?
May and Corbyn may agree it but does it follow their parties will follow - and what about the confirmatory public vote.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> >
> > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
>
> If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
Finish the Tories for a generation
And Gilbert levels.
> I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
If Labour does not deliver Brexit it risks losing Labour Leave seats to the Brexit Party or Tories at the next GE
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > >
> > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> >
> > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
>
> Finish the Tories for a generation
Only if the Brexit Party overtook them
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
>
> May and Corbyn may agree it but does it follow their parties will follow - and what about the confirmatory public vote.
The question the majority of Lab MPs will ask. Because they do not want a deal of any kind.
That the only Brexit on offer is a Labour Brexit was pointed out by BigJohn months ago. Tories can cry about that as much as they like, and may well believe remain is better than that, but it is a lot more likely than no deal or Mays' deal.
And frankly while I do not know if a CU is as bad as people say it is, a Brexit deal that is backed by significant numbers of Lab and Tory MPs seems to be a reasonable thing to my mind, showing that on this divisive issue which should cross parties, there has been cross party work, eventually.
But like you I don't see how they can get their parties to follow in enough numbers, which itself removes reason to agree one.
>
> Only if the Brexit Party overtook them
Were the Tories not finished for a generation in 1997?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> >
> > Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
>
> Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
You mean they want the other side to lose.
> I'm afraid that I believe the LP "permanent CU" is the worst outcome. For me in descending order it is remain, May's deal, hard Brexit, permanent CU.
You can still do trade deals on services with a permanent CU even if not on goods. It is not as good as May's Deal as is but the only compromise left and of course the PD is not legally binding
> > @NorthofStoke said:
> > I'm afraid that I believe the LP "permanent CU" is the worst outcome. For me in descending order it is remain, May's deal, hard Brexit, permanent CU.
> You can still do trade deals on services with a permanent CU even if not on goods. It is not as good as May's Deal as is but the only compromise left and of course the PD is not legally binding
Nothing as good as Remaining.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Only if the Brexit Party overtook them
>
> Were the Tories not finished for a generation in 1997?
Only after a Blair landslide and even then they stayed the main party of opposition.
There is little prospect of a Corbyn landslide but there is a risk the Brexit Party could overtake the Tories if they do not deliver Brexit
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Only if the Brexit Party overtook them
>
> Were the Tories not finished for a generation in 1997?
These days a generation doesn't even last four years. Seems we now measure the term in hamster life spans not human ones.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661/salmond-referendum-is-once-in-a-generation-opportunity
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/feb/23/cameron-eu-referendum-hague-a-divisive-referendum-campaign-could-damage-tories-for-a-generation-politics-live?page=with:block-56cc674de4b00221da78b425