> @another_richard said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals > > > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates? > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350 > > > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win. > > You mean they want the other side to lose.
There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns...
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> @kinabalu said: > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
> @kle4 said: > > @brendan16 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > May and Corbyn may agree it but does it follow their parties will follow - and what about the confirmatory public vote. > > The question the majority of Lab MPs will ask. Because they do not want a deal of any kind. > > That the only Brexit on offer is a Labour Brexit was pointed out by BigJohn months ago. Tories can cry about that as much as they like, and may well believe remain is better than that, but it is a lot more likely than no deal or Mays' deal. > > And frankly while I do not know if a CU is as bad as people say it is, a Brexit deal that is backed by significant numbers of Lab and Tory MPs seems to be a reasonable thing to my mind, showing that on this divisive issue which should cross parties, there has been cross party work, eventually. > > But like you I don't see how they can get their parties to follow in enough numbers, which itself removes reason to agree one.
May and Corbyn are following Parliament's lead, Deal plus Customs Union has been closer to a majority of MPs than May's Deal as is, No Deal, Deal plus Single Market and Customs Union, Revoke and EUref2.
The only Brexit option that has actually got a majority is May's Deal minus the backstop in the form of the Brady amendment but that is still a unicorn option unless the EU agree to replace it with a technical solution
> @ydoethur said: > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description. > > There would however be a delicious irony if Corbyn, elected so the left could feel good about themselves, became the first Labour leader to do a peacetime deal with the Tories since Ramsay Macdonald in 1931. > > And Gilbert levels.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals > > > > > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates? > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350 > > > > > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win. > > > > You mean they want the other side to lose. > > There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns...
The national interest means constructing a way forward that will get through Parliament. A permanent customs union Brexit might do that but I am sceptical, to say the least.
If the only way forward is to ask the public again, then that is the national interest.
> @rural_voter said: > > @kinabalu said: > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description. > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
> @NorthofStoke said: > I'm afraid that I believe the LP "permanent CU" is the worst outcome. For me in descending order it is remain, May's deal, hard Brexit, permanent CU.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rural_voter said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description. > > > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled. > > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals > > > > > > > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates? > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350 > > > > > > > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win. > > > > > > You mean they want the other side to lose. > > > > There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns... > > The national interest means constructing a way forward that will get through Parliament. A permanent customs union Brexit might do that but I am sceptical, to say the least. > > If the only way forward is to ask the public again, then that is the national interest.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> @Omnium said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals > > > > > > > > > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates? > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350 > > > > > > > > > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win. > > > > > > > > You mean they want the other side to lose. > > > > > > There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns... > > > > The national interest means constructing a way forward that will get through Parliament. A permanent customs union Brexit might do that but I am sceptical, to say the least. > > > > If the only way forward is to ask the public again, then that is the national interest. > > What merit the referendum then? > > Was it just a waste of time?
It turns out that if a narrow majority decide that we should all go on holiday but don’t agree among themselves whether that should be Benidorm, Mauritius or the trans-Siberian railway, we might all need a fundamental rethink.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rural_voter said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description. > > > > > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled. > > > > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest. > > Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
Can you actually give one example of Moscow influencing a single vote?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> @ydoethur said: > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
The whole point of this thread's header is that the opinion polls don't always get it right!
> @OldKingCole said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > The whole point of this thread's header is that the opinion polls don't always get it right!
The predictions which were most out were based on local council by elections not opinion polls (ones based on the polls were more accurate at least in terms of Tory losses) and the last European Parliament elections polls were pretty accurate
> @OldKingCole said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > The whole point of this thread's header is that the opinion polls don't always get it right!
+1
Also noteworthy that this is another significant misappreciation of the Labour vote, this time in the opposite direction.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rural_voter said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description. > > > > > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled. > > > > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest. > > Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
Well we know that the Treasury pedaled lies on behalf of Remain:
> @HYUFD said: > > @ydoethur said: > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections. > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014
Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @ydoethur said: > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections. > > > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014 > > Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage
No I would still prefer Boris to Farage but until Boris becomes Tory leader it will be Farage making waves with Brexiteers
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections. > > > > > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014 > > > > Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage > > No I would still prefer Boris to Farage but until Boris becomes Tory leader it will be Farage making waves with Brexiteers
As he drives many into the arms of the remain parties
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP. > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
> The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
>
> Unfair. Salmond won elections.
So did Farage e.g. in 2014
He put in a slightly better performance than his rivals. Salmond won an overall majority in a system deliberately designed to make such a feat impossible.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections. > > > > > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014 > > > > Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage > > No I would still prefer Boris to Farage but until Boris becomes Tory leader it will be Farage making waves with Brexiteers
I thought it was the Moggette who was stiffening the resolve of the No Deal Brexiteers.
Neither party can hope to govern independently whilst leave or remain is live. They have to kill the issue. If they do it now, they have three years to try and bury the subject.
> @ydoethur said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections. > > > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014 > > He put in a slightly better performance than his rivals. Salmond won an overall majority in a system deliberately designed to make such a feat impossible.
Though still under 50%.
Farage also achieved his main aim of winning a referendum to Leave the EU in 2016 while Salmond failed to achieve his main aim of winning a referendum for Scottish independence in 2014.
It is only the fact that result has not been implemented yet that is boosting Farage
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit > > > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP. > > > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second > > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
Polls can be out, but not so far out as that. The Lib Dems won't be coming first on May 23rd.
> > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
>
> >
>
> > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
>
>
>
> So did Farage e.g. in 2014
>
> He put in a slightly better performance than his rivals. Salmond won an overall majority in a system deliberately designed to make such a feat impossible.
Though still under 50%.
Farage also achieved his main aim of winning a referendum to Leave the EU in 2016 while Salmond failed to achieve his main aim of winning a referendum for Scottish independence in 2014.
It is only the fact that result has not been implemented yet that is boosting Farage
An overall majority is actually over 50%. That's why it's called a majority.
And if Farage had fronted Leave, Leave would have lost. He is to Euroscepticism what Juncker is to EU federalism. That's why he was not allowed to take any significant part.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit > > > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP. > > > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second > > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
Better prepare yourself for the European elections then if the Brexit Party win them, that is an awful lot of 'extremist' voters (and personally I will still vote Tory not Brexit Party)
> @Sean_F said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > > > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > > > > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit > > > > > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP. > > > > > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second > > > > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist > > Polls can be out, but not so far out as that. The Lib Dems won't be coming first on May 23rd.
I concede it is unlikely but if the 6 million who signed the revoke petition all voted lib dems it would be a huge boost
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > > > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > > > > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit > > > > > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP. > > > > > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second > > > > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist > > Better prepare yourself for the European elections then if the Brexit Party win them, that is an awful lot of 'extremist' voters (and personally I will still vote Tory not Brexit Party)
Pleased to hear you are still voting for the party
Saying anyone needs to act in The National Interest is a flimsy charge to make. The Labour party believes that a labour government is in the national interest, The Monster Raving Loony Party thinks that a Monster Raving Loony government is in the national interest and so on.
You'd hope so, but of course things are so fractious and chaotic it probably would not be three years, hence why they cannot afford to give in to kill it, in case they also have to face the electorate before then. Better, for them, to hope the other side is hit worse.
Saying anyone needs to act in The National Interest is a flimsy charge to make. The Labour party believes that a labour government is in the national interest, The Monster Raving Loony Party thinks that a Monster Raving Loony government is in the national interest and so on.
When it comes to Brexit, remaining is in the national economic interest, but doing it would cause considerable damage to our social and political systems that might outweigh it.
Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
What then ?
Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> @rottenborough said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > What then ? > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> @Foxy said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> @rottenborough said: > Seems people are getting addressed election leaflets from Brexit Party. > > I assume this is too early to be the traditional one delivered for free by the Royal Mail that all parties get. > > So how are they paying for this?
> @rottenborough said: > Seems people are getting addressed election leaflets from Brexit Party. > > I assume this is too early to be the traditional one delivered for free by the Royal Mail that all parties get. > > So how are they paying for this?
I think it is the official one, Fox jr got one from the LDs today addressed to him. Interestingly not Mrs Foxy or myself, so I think it is one specifically targetting newly registered voters.
> @rottenborough said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > What then ? > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
The SNP also contains libertarians and socialists, what unites them is Scottish independence, just as what unites the Brexit Party is leaving the EU.
Once the main goal is achieved the need for the party is largely gone anyway
I am hoping that newspaper editorial budgets are not so tight these days that they don't invest some time finding out where Nigel's money is coming from.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit > > > > > > > > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections > > > > > > > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit > > > > > > > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP. > > > > > > > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second > > > > > > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist > > > > Better prepare yourself for the European elections then if the Brexit Party win them, that is an awful lot of 'extremist' voters (and personally I will still vote Tory not Brexit Party) > > Pleased to hear you are still voting for the party
I will be but most of my local party's membership will be voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> @ydoethur said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections. > > > > > > > > > > > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014 > > > > > > He put in a slightly better performance than his rivals. Salmond won an overall majority in a system deliberately designed to make such a feat impossible. > > > > Though still under 50%. > > > > Farage also achieved his main aim of winning a referendum to Leave the EU in 2016 while Salmond failed to achieve his main aim of winning a referendum for Scottish independence in 2014. > > > > It is only the fact that result has not been implemented yet that is boosting Farage > > An overall majority is actually over 50%. That's why it's called a majority. > > And if Farage had fronted Leave, Leave would have lost. He is to Euroscepticism what Juncker is to EU federalism. That's why he was not allowed to take any significant part.
Of seats, not of votes.
If it was not for Farage and UKIP Cameron would never even have proposed an EU referendum in the first place
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > No they wouldn't.
There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > No they wouldn't.
________________
The UKIP - now B****t - vote distribution is inefficient under FPTP. Labour's is so favourable that they could apparently win 300 seats on barely 30%.
BTW, while the quote button is broken, lines above new posts help a bit.
> @rural_voter said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > > > No they wouldn't. > > ________________ > > The UKIP - now B****t - vote distribution is inefficient under FPTP. Labour's is so favourable that they could apparently win 300 seats on barely 30%. > > BTW, while the quote button is broken, lines above new posts help a bit.
Actually type in European Parliament predictions of 27% Brexit Party, 22% Labour and 13% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and the Brexit Party gets 344 seats and an overall majority
> @ydoethur said: > Of seats, not of votes. > > If it was not for Farage and UKIP Cameron would never even have proposed an EU referendum in the first place > > No party or electoral alliance since 1935 (excepting the Coalition, formed afterwards) has won a majority of votes in any UK election. > > As for the rest, are you David Cameron that you know his thoughts?
I do know had UKIP been polling 1% rather than 15% in 2013 Cameron would not have proposed a referendum
> @ydoethur said: > I do know had UKIP been polling 1% rather than 15% in 2013 Cameron would not have proposed a referendum > > Really? I would remind you that Cameron in 2005 had posed as the Eurosceptic candidate, and he also put forward a referendum on Lisbon.
Yes really, a referendum on Lisbon is not the same as a referendum on leaving the whole EU.
Indeed most EU countries hold referendums on major EU Treaty changes
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > > > No they wouldn't. > > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
_________
They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > > > > > No they wouldn't. > > > > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril > > _________ > > They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it.
Like the alternative of No Deal if Macron vetoes further extension of Art 50 in October.
However the 40 to 45% who back No Deal Brexit in the polls would be enough to give a big Brexit Party majority under FPTP
> @HYUFD said: > > @rural_voter said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > > > > > No they wouldn't. > > > > ________________ > > > > The UKIP - now B****t - vote distribution is inefficient under FPTP. Labour's is so favourable that they could apparently win 300 seats on barely 30%. > > > > BTW, while the quote button is broken, lines above new posts help a bit. > > Actually type in European Parliament predictions of 27% Brexit Party, 22% Labour and 13% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and the Brexit Party gets 344 seats and an overall majority > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=22&LIB=7&UKIP=2&Green=2&ChUK=0&Brexit=27&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
_____________________
Those are EU parliamentary election polls. GE polling which normally gives figures of ~30% Labour, 25% Tory or higher.
We could have a GE this summer or autumn if Mrs May will call one and see how low the Tory vote goes under FPTP for elections that people consider to 'matter'. I doubt she will though.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > > > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > > > > > > > No they wouldn't. > > > > > > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril > > > > _________ > > > > They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it. > > Like the alternative of No Deal if Macron vetoes further extension of Art 50 in October. > > However the 40 to 45% who back No Deal Brexit in the polls would be enough to give a big Brexit Party majority under FPTP
_____________
You make the same error that May did 2 years ago. Any GE would not be just about Brexit. Indeed with current Brexit frustration it would (like 2017) be the party that talks least of Brexit on either side that would prosper.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What then ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections, > > > > > > > > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse > > > > > > > > > > No they wouldn't. > > > > > > > > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril > > > > > > _________ > > > > > > They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it. > > > > Like the alternative of No Deal if Macron vetoes further extension of Art 50 in October. > > > > However the 40 to 45% who back No Deal Brexit in the polls would be enough to give a big Brexit Party majority under FPTP > > _____________ > > You make the same error that May did 2 years ago. Any GE would not be just about Brexit. Indeed with current Brexit frustration it would (like 2017) be the party that talks least of Brexit on either side that would prosper. > >
Nope, if we are still in the EU by the next general election it will be nothing but Brexit. Leavers will be furious and determined to exact revenge.
Other issues came to the fore in 2017 only as Labour and the Tories promised to deliver Brexit, they have not done so
> > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> >
> > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
>
> That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
Comments
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> > >
> > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
> >
> > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
>
> You mean they want the other side to lose.
There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns...
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > >
> > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> >
> > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
>
> Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> >
> > May and Corbyn may agree it but does it follow their parties will follow - and what about the confirmatory public vote.
>
> The question the majority of Lab MPs will ask. Because they do not want a deal of any kind.
>
> That the only Brexit on offer is a Labour Brexit was pointed out by BigJohn months ago. Tories can cry about that as much as they like, and may well believe remain is better than that, but it is a lot more likely than no deal or Mays' deal.
>
> And frankly while I do not know if a CU is as bad as people say it is, a Brexit deal that is backed by significant numbers of Lab and Tory MPs seems to be a reasonable thing to my mind, showing that on this divisive issue which should cross parties, there has been cross party work, eventually.
>
> But like you I don't see how they can get their parties to follow in enough numbers, which itself removes reason to agree one.
May and Corbyn are following Parliament's lead, Deal plus Customs Union has been closer to a majority of MPs than May's Deal as is, No Deal, Deal plus Single Market and Customs Union, Revoke and EUref2.
The only Brexit option that has actually got a majority is May's Deal minus the backstop in the form of the Brady amendment but that is still a unicorn option unless the EU agree to replace it with a technical solution
> I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
>
> There would however be a delicious irony if Corbyn, elected so the left could feel good about themselves, became the first Labour leader to do a peacetime deal with the Tories since Ramsay Macdonald in 1931.
>
> And Gilbert levels.
Like to see Gilbert make the final.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> > > >
> > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
> > >
> > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
> >
> > You mean they want the other side to lose.
>
> There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns...
The national interest means constructing a way forward that will get through Parliament. A permanent customs union Brexit might do that but I am sceptical, to say the least.
If the only way forward is to ask the public again, then that is the national interest.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
>
> But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
> I'm afraid that I believe the LP "permanent CU" is the worst outcome. For me in descending order it is remain, May's deal, hard Brexit, permanent CU.
May's Deal is hard Brexit.
The terminology has changed since 2016.
But at least he now has a choice of easy reds!
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> >
> > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
>
> That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> > > > >
> > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
> > > >
> > > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
> > >
> > > You mean they want the other side to lose.
> >
> > There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns...
>
> The national interest means constructing a way forward that will get through Parliament. A permanent customs union Brexit might do that but I am sceptical, to say the least.
>
> If the only way forward is to ask the public again, then that is the national interest.
What merit the referendum then?
Was it just a waste of time?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > >
> > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > >
> > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> >
> > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
>
> Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > > UKIP are now largely a Tommy Robinson outfit, the Brexit Party leads most of the latest European elections polls and did not stand in the locals
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Are the Brexit Party the moderates?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124692973634105350
> > > > >
> > > > > Rough stuff. But even nominally sensible people have referred to the prospect of the parties agreeing a deal as being grubby, agreed in back rooms, and compromises as inherently a bad thing, which I find very dicouraging. There may be specifics to any compromise, were one agreed, which would rightly be criticised, but when actually moderate people are condemning even the idea of the parties agreeing something - which is what the idea was 2+ years ago in that parliament would agree something - it is deeply depressing, since it means they people are once again showing that any talk about how we want politicians to work together is absolutely nonsense - the public does not want that, they want their team to win.
> > > >
> > > > You mean they want the other side to lose.
> > >
> > > There's a lovely double standard about too - Corbyn should agree to a people's vote because his members are in favour, but May should act in the national interest ahead of party concerns...
> >
> > The national interest means constructing a way forward that will get through Parliament. A permanent customs union Brexit might do that but I am sceptical, to say the least.
> >
> > If the only way forward is to ask the public again, then that is the national interest.
>
> What merit the referendum then?
>
> Was it just a waste of time?
It turns out that if a narrow majority decide that we should all go on holiday but don’t agree among themselves whether that should be Benidorm, Mauritius or the trans-Siberian railway, we might all need a fundamental rethink.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rural_voter said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> > >
> > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
> >
> > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
>
> Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
Can you actually give one example of Moscow influencing a single vote?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > >
> > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > >
> > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > >
> > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> >
> > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
>
> The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> Trying to get a May/Corbyn deal through parliament is surely when the long awaited split(s) finally happens.
Which is the main reason I don't think it will get that far. Neither wants to see a split happen, and will delay as long as possible.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > >
> > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > >
> > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > >
> > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > >
> > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> >
> > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
>
> In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
>
> Unfair. Salmond won elections.
So did Farage e.g. in 2014
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > >
> > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > >
> > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > >
> > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> >
> > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
>
> Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
The whole point of this thread's header is that the opinion polls don't always get it right!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > >
> > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > >
> > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > >
> > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> >
> > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
>
> The whole point of this thread's header is that the opinion polls don't always get it right!
The predictions which were most out were based on local council by elections not opinion polls (ones based on the polls were more accurate at least in terms of Tory losses) and the last European Parliament elections polls were pretty accurate
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > >
> > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > >
> > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > >
> > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> >
> > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
>
> The whole point of this thread's header is that the opinion polls don't always get it right!
+1
Also noteworthy that this is another significant misappreciation of the Labour vote, this time in the opposite direction.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > >
> > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > >
> > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > >
> > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> >
> > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
>
> Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rural_voter said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> > >
> > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
> >
> > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
>
> Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
Well we know that the Treasury pedaled lies on behalf of Remain:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf4
but I didn't know that Moscow was helping them as well.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> >
> > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
>
> So did Farage e.g. in 2014
Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > >
> > > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
> >
> > So did Farage e.g. in 2014
>
> Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage
No I would still prefer Boris to Farage but until Boris becomes Tory leader it will be Farage making waves with Brexiteers
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > >
> > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > >
> > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > >
> > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> >
> > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
>
> And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @ydoethur said:
> > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > >
> > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
> > >
> > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014
> >
> > Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage
>
> No I would still prefer Boris to Farage but until Boris becomes Tory leader it will be Farage making waves with Brexiteers
As he drives many into the arms of the remain parties
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > > >
> > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > >
> > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> > >
> > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> >
> > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
>
> I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
>
> I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @ydoethur said:
> > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > >
> > > > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
> > >
> > > So did Farage e.g. in 2014
> >
> > Boris is going to be upset as you change your hero worship to Farage
>
> No I would still prefer Boris to Farage but until Boris becomes Tory leader it will be Farage making waves with Brexiteers
I thought it was the Moggette who was stiffening the resolve of the No Deal Brexiteers.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
I can't say I'm surprised.
Neither party can hope to govern independently whilst leave or remain is live. They have to kill the issue. If they do it now, they have three years to try and bury the subject.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
>
> >
>
> > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
>
>
>
> So did Farage e.g. in 2014
>
> He put in a slightly better performance than his rivals. Salmond won an overall majority in a system deliberately designed to make such a feat impossible.
Though still under 50%.
Farage also achieved his main aim of winning a referendum to Leave the EU in 2016 while Salmond failed to achieve his main aim of winning a referendum for Scottish independence in 2014.
It is only the fact that result has not been implemented yet that is boosting Farage
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > > >
> > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> > > >
> > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> > >
> > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> >
> > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
> >
> > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
>
> No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
Polls can be out, but not so far out as that. The Lib Dems won't be coming first on May 23rd.
And if Farage had fronted Leave, Leave would have lost. He is to Euroscepticism what Juncker is to EU federalism. That's why he was not allowed to take any significant part.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > > >
> > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> > > >
> > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> > >
> > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> >
> > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
> >
> > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
>
> No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
Better prepare yourself for the European elections then if the Brexit Party win them, that is an awful lot of 'extremist' voters (and personally I will still vote Tory not Brexit Party)
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> > > > >
> > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> > > >
> > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> > >
> > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
> > >
> > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
> >
> > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
>
> Polls can be out, but not so far out as that. The Lib Dems won't be coming first on May 23rd.
I concede it is unlikely but if the 6 million who signed the revoke petition all voted lib dems it would be a huge boost
Edit - and even worse, Virgo took the opportunity to spout crap for another five minutes.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
What then ?
Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> > > > >
> > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> > > >
> > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> > >
> > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
> > >
> > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
> >
> > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
>
> Better prepare yourself for the European elections then if the Brexit Party win them, that is an awful lot of 'extremist' voters (and personally I will still vote Tory not Brexit Party)
Pleased to hear you are still voting for the party
https://twitter.com/creativeblock_/status/1124712503592849408
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
>
> I can't say I'm surprised.
>
> Neither party can hope to govern independently whilst leave or remain is live. They have to kill the issue. If they do it now, they have three years to try and bury the subject.
You'd hope so, but of course things are so fractious and chaotic it probably would not be three years, hence why they cannot afford to give in to kill it, in case they also have to face the electorate before then. Better, for them, to hope the other side is hit worse.
So where does the national interest lie?
Edit - HD you can see Gilbert was shaking before he started doing yoga.
> I said this would go the distance. And it has!
Decider at the Crucible. Always drama.
I assume this is too early to be the traditional one delivered for free by the Royal Mail that all parties get.
So how are they paying for this?
But this has been a worthy competitor.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
>
>
>
>
>
> Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
>
>
>
> What then ?
>
>
>
> Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
>
> I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> >
> >
> >
> > What then ?
> >
> >
> >
> > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> >
> > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
>
> Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
>
> Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> Seems people are getting addressed election leaflets from Brexit Party.
>
> I assume this is too early to be the traditional one delivered for free by the Royal Mail that all parties get.
>
> So how are they paying for this?
Israel.
> Seems people are getting addressed election leaflets from Brexit Party.
>
> I assume this is too early to be the traditional one delivered for free by the Royal Mail that all parties get.
>
> So how are they paying for this?
I think it is the official one, Fox jr got one from the LDs today addressed to him. Interestingly not Mrs Foxy or myself, so I think it is one specifically targetting newly registered voters.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
>
>
>
>
>
> Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
>
>
>
> What then ?
>
>
>
> Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
>
> I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
The SNP also contains libertarians and socialists, what unites them is Scottish independence, just as what unites the Brexit Party is leaving the EU.
Once the main goal is achieved the need for the party is largely gone anyway
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What then ?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > >
> > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> >
> > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> >
> > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
>
> In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
No they wouldn't.
Oh dear...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1124675650709749761
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > While keeping us stuck in the EU will see Labour Leave seats shift to the Brexit Party
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > If TM deal does not pass the most likely outcome is opinion shifts to a referendum that finishes brexit for a generation
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Remain would probably win a referendum v No Deal Brexit about 55% to 45% but as the SNP showed 45% is enough to win a landslide under FPTP for the Brexit Party at the next general election
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Brexit Party landslide. Now you really are away with the fairies. You need to calm down
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > In front of a few hundred ultras as the country moves towards the lib dems, greens, and change UK with equal fervour to stop brexit
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Just wait until the European elections when almost all the polls have the Brexit Party coming first, they did not stand in the local elections
> > > > >
> > > > > And you think that will propel Farage into no 10. You need to get perspective. I would expect remain parties to win the overall share with the lib dems even outvoting Brexit Party. The trend is to no brexit
> > > >
> > > > I would remind you Unionist parties still won 50% of the vote in Scotland even at GE 2015, it did not stop an SNP landslide under FPTP.
> > > >
> > > > I also cannot see the LDs beating the Brexit Party, at most they will get second
> > >
> > > No point in trying to be rational with a Farage/ Brexit Party extremist
> >
> > Better prepare yourself for the European elections then if the Brexit Party win them, that is an awful lot of 'extremist' voters (and personally I will still vote Tory not Brexit Party)
>
> Pleased to hear you are still voting for the party
I will be but most of my local party's membership will be voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > > @ydoethur said:
>
> >
>
> > > The scenes from that Brexit Party rally remind me of SNP rallies 4 or 5 years ago with Farage taking the Salmond role
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Unfair. Salmond won elections.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > So did Farage e.g. in 2014
>
> >
>
> > He put in a slightly better performance than his rivals. Salmond won an overall majority in a system deliberately designed to make such a feat impossible.
>
>
>
> Though still under 50%.
>
>
>
> Farage also achieved his main aim of winning a referendum to Leave the EU in 2016 while Salmond failed to achieve his main aim of winning a referendum for Scottish independence in 2014.
>
>
>
> It is only the fact that result has not been implemented yet that is boosting Farage
>
> An overall majority is actually over 50%. That's why it's called a majority.
>
> And if Farage had fronted Leave, Leave would have lost. He is to Euroscepticism what Juncker is to EU federalism. That's why he was not allowed to take any significant part.
Of seats, not of votes.
If it was not for Farage and UKIP Cameron would never even have proposed an EU referendum in the first place
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > What then ?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > >
> > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > >
> > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > >
> > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> >
> > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
>
> No they wouldn't.
There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > What then ?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > >
> > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > >
> > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > >
> > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> >
> > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
>
> No they wouldn't.
________________
The UKIP - now B****t - vote distribution is inefficient under FPTP. Labour's is so favourable that they could apparently win 300 seats on barely 30%.
BTW, while the quote button is broken, lines above new posts help a bit.
As for the rest, are you David Cameron that you know his thoughts?
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > What then ?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > > >
> > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > > >
> > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > > >
> > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > >
> > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> >
> > No they wouldn't.
>
> ________________
>
> The UKIP - now B****t - vote distribution is inefficient under FPTP. Labour's is so favourable that they could apparently win 300 seats on barely 30%.
>
> BTW, while the quote button is broken, lines above new posts help a bit.
Actually type in European Parliament predictions of 27% Brexit Party, 22% Labour and 13% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and the Brexit Party gets 344 seats and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=22&LIB=7&UKIP=2&Green=2&ChUK=0&Brexit=27&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> Of seats, not of votes.
>
> If it was not for Farage and UKIP Cameron would never even have proposed an EU referendum in the first place
>
> No party or electoral alliance since 1935 (excepting the Coalition, formed afterwards) has won a majority of votes in any UK election.
>
> As for the rest, are you David Cameron that you know his thoughts?
I do know had UKIP been polling 1% rather than 15% in 2013 Cameron would not have proposed a referendum
> I do know had UKIP been polling 1% rather than 15% in 2013 Cameron would not have proposed a referendum
>
> Really? I would remind you that Cameron in 2005 had posed as the Eurosceptic candidate, and he also put forward a referendum on Lisbon.
Yes really, a referendum on Lisbon is not the same as a referendum on leaving the whole EU.
Indeed most EU countries hold referendums on major EU Treaty changes
If Trump wins tonight, it's a repeat of 2011.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > What then ?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > > >
> > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > > >
> > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > > >
> > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > >
> > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> >
> > No they wouldn't.
>
> There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
_________
They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > What then ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > > > >
> > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > > > >
> > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > > >
> > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> > >
> > > No they wouldn't.
> >
> > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
>
> _________
>
> They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it.
Like the alternative of No Deal if Macron vetoes further extension of Art 50 in October.
However the 40 to 45% who back No Deal Brexit in the polls would be enough to give a big Brexit Party majority under FPTP
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > What then ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > > > >
> > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > > > >
> > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > > >
> > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> > >
> > > No they wouldn't.
> >
> > ________________
> >
> > The UKIP - now B****t - vote distribution is inefficient under FPTP. Labour's is so favourable that they could apparently win 300 seats on barely 30%.
> >
> > BTW, while the quote button is broken, lines above new posts help a bit.
>
> Actually type in European Parliament predictions of 27% Brexit Party, 22% Labour and 13% Tory from Yougov into Electoral Calculus and the Brexit Party gets 344 seats and an overall majority
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=22&LIB=7&UKIP=2&Green=2&ChUK=0&Brexit=27&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
_____________________
Those are EU parliamentary election polls. GE polling which normally gives figures of ~30% Labour, 25% Tory or higher.
We could have a GE this summer or autumn if Mrs May will call one and see how low the Tory vote goes under FPTP for elections that people consider to 'matter'. I doubt she will though.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > What then ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > > > >
> > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> > > >
> > > > No they wouldn't.
> > >
> > > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
> >
> > _________
> >
> > They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it.
>
> Like the alternative of No Deal if Macron vetoes further extension of Art 50 in October.
>
> However the 40 to 45% who back No Deal Brexit in the polls would be enough to give a big Brexit Party majority under FPTP
_____________
You make the same error that May did 2 years ago. Any GE would not be just about Brexit. Indeed with current Brexit frustration it would (like 2017) be the party that talks least of Brexit on either side that would prosper.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707462152695809
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Lets say that there were 330 Farage MPs after the next GE.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > What then ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Endless amounts of posturing and bickering but how much would they achieve ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I expect the BP block would rapidly split into factions, because you can bet your bottom dollar they don't all see everyday policy like schools and welfare the same way as each other.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Apart from backing No Deal Brexit immediately (and I am not sure that they completely agree on that!) they agree on nothing else.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Even in an #A50revoke scenario they would not win more than a few seats in FPTP elections,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In an A50 revoke scenario with no referendum Farage could win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP as Leavers would vote BP en masse
> > > > >
> > > > > No they wouldn't.
> > > >
> > > > There is a strong chance they would and diehard Remainers like you complacently dismiss it at your peril
> > >
> > > _________
> > >
> > > They wouldn't, not least because any series of events leading to parliament to revoke A50 would have to be so significant that only something catastrophic would cause it.
> >
> > Like the alternative of No Deal if Macron vetoes further extension of Art 50 in October.
> >
> > However the 40 to 45% who back No Deal Brexit in the polls would be enough to give a big Brexit Party majority under FPTP
>
> _____________
>
> You make the same error that May did 2 years ago. Any GE would not be just about Brexit. Indeed with current Brexit frustration it would (like 2017) be the party that talks least of Brexit on either side that would prosper.
>
>
Nope, if we are still in the EU by the next general election it will be nothing but Brexit. Leavers will be furious and determined to exact revenge.
Other issues came to the fore in 2017 only as Labour and the Tories promised to deliver Brexit, they have not done so