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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now moving up in the CON leader betting the man who was to tip

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now moving up in the CON leader betting the man who was to tipped in 2009 to become PM even before he became an MP

Telegraph 2009

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    No one else awake ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    One point in Rory’s favour is that he’s young enough still to be a contender after even a very long period in the wilderness for the Tories...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    edited May 7
    FPT
    “ Never mind that, just listen to what Farage himself says. This shouldn't be about Alex Jones (of whom hardly anyone in the UK has heard), but Farage..

    I'm not defending Farage, he shouldn't be speaking to Jones or be saying such things. That said I do wonder how much of it Farage genuinely believes and how much is him playing up to what his host expects from a guest...”

    How much of anything he ever says does Farage actually believe ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    Second, hopefully higher than Boris,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    Save us from yet another Etonian.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    He has been a loyal foot soldier on Brexit - going out to bat for the <i>government's</i> deal when others were sniping against it. Might need a bit more experience/exposure in high profile political roles, but I would be far from upset if he made it to the final two.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    > @IanB2 said:
    > Save us from yet another Etonian.

    The sins of the fathers should be visited upon the sons?

    Very progressive and compassionate!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    Australian documentary on the 737 Max:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    edited May 7
    Fpt:

    > @SirBenjamin said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > >
    > > >
    > > > The worst prime minister since Lord North was David Cameron, who contrived by his own efforts to lose Europe shortly after almost losing Scotland. In neither case was he the victim of adverse circumstance: no oil price shock, no foreign invasion, no global financial crisis; just Cameron's own decisions. Theresa May is the worst since Cameron, but that is not saying much as she is also the first.
    > >
    > > 2010-2016 was the golden age of government. No-one reading this will see a better government in their lifetime, as I haven't (apart from the very special case of Maggie) in mine.
    >
    >
    > Agreed. I fear that it is closest thing to a Libertarian government that we shall ever see. For shame.
    —————————-
    2010-15, really, which is the key point. He thrived in coalition and it suited him greatly, giving him the cover to do many of the things he wanted but would otherwise have been unable to do. Ultimately his failure was not having the courage or strength to be his own man and turn his party in his direction, instead hiding behind the coalition, and not having the convictions to carry through on what he achieved. Such that when he got his unexpected majority, everything fell apart. Just like our EU membership, he had to appear to tolerate rather than embrace coalition, not realising how good for him it was until it was gone. Seen like this, Brexit is part of a bigger picture rather than merely a costly aberration.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    IanB2 said:

    2010-15, really, which is the key point. He thrived in coalition and it suited him greatly, giving him the cover to do many of the things he wanted but would otherwise have been unable to do. Ultimately his failure was not having the courage or strength to be his own man and turn his party in his direction, instead hiding behind the coalition, and not having the convictions to carry through on what he achieved. Such that when he got his unexpected majority, everything fell apart. Just like our EU membership, he had to appear to tolerate rather than embrace coalition, not realising how good for him it was until it was gone. Seen like this, Brexit is part of a bigger picture rather than merely a costly aberration.

    I think that's fair. The 'quad' was the last 'grown up' government we've had.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    I can’t see how he is convincingly going to persuade the membership that he is sufficiently demented about Brexit and he isn’t going to be unopposed. So he remains a longshot, irrespective of his talents.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683

    I can’t see how he is convincingly going to persuade the membership that he is sufficiently demented about Brexit and he isn’t going to be unopposed. So he remains a longshot, irrespective of his talents.

    Agreed..
    The only way he’s likely to become next leader is if May stays for a decade until it’s all over. That seems.... implausible.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    Stewart gives every impression of being rational, smart and prepared to compromise. I’d say 100-1 is too short a price.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    I like Rory, and think he would make an *interesting* PM - though that's not the same as a good one. IMV he's certainly better than the other Conservative frontrunners. And 1000 times better than the bungling buffoon Boris.

    But as Alastair states below, the membership won't go for someone so lightweight on Brexit - and Brexit is the prism through which Conservative politics has been viewed for the last three decades.

    Brexit is the Conservative party's mental illness, causing it to do things that are actively harmful to itself and those around it.

    But I have to ask why anyone would want to be PM: the public apparently want the PM to be 'one of us', yet without any of our flaws - hence better and superior to us. The pay for any candidate of quality is low, and they get sh*t thrown at them from all sides.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,309
    At 23/1 on Betfair I think he's a clear lay. I got on at 65/1 so perfectly happy with that. Have heard that he's charming but prone to doing slightly bizarre things. Suspect as a candidate he might create quite a few gaffes. He seems much more interested in foreign policy and defence, don't know whether he's up for doing dreary domestic politics.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 590
    Stewart would be the PM the Tory Party would choose if it wants to win and unite as much of the country as humanly possible. Unfortunately, that may mean he hasn't got a hope as I fear the Tories have to go through an extra stage of grief and indulging the blood and thunder idiots on their right before it dawns on the membership that the Conservative traits that are most popular in the country are the more rational, Burkean, small c one nation conservative ones, rather than the pomposity of Farage imitators.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681

    I can’t see how he is convincingly going to persuade the membership that he is sufficiently demented about Brexit and he isn’t going to be unopposed. So he remains a longshot, irrespective of his talents.

    If Dominic Grieve was the alternative......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    MJW said:

    Stewart would be the PM the Tory Party would choose if it wants to win and unite as much of the country as humanly possible. Unfortunately, that may mean he hasn't got a hope as I fear the Tories have to go through an extra stage of grief and indulging the blood and thunder idiots on their right before it dawns on the membership that the Conservative traits that are most popular in the country are the more rational, Burkean, small c one nation conservative ones, rather than the pomposity of Farage imitators.

    The party requires a sheepdog like Stewart, rather than the ERGers, who are winnets hanging off the arses of the sheep.

    And Boris is the fox, aiming to strike on any comely little lambs, whilst Fox is the pile of manure in the field's corner.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    I have really liked Stewart's contributions to the Brexit debate. He has been nuanced, open to debate, persuasive and tried to build a consensus. Very, very few have done the same right up to our current PM. She made yet another major error in not appointing him Brexit Secretary on the several occasions that she had the opportunity.

    I think he would have a better prospect of bringing both wings of the party together than almost anyone else. Doesn't mean it is possible of course. I also think, equally importantly, that he could bring an element of courtesy and mutual respect back to our politics. That would be welcome after the hyperbole of the last several years.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,409
    > @DavidL said:
    > I have really liked Stewart's contributions to the Brexit debate. He has been nuanced, open to debate, persuasive and tried to build a consensus. Very, very few have done the same right up to our current PM. She made yet another major error in not appointing him Brexit Secretary on the several occasions that she had the opportunity.
    >
    > I think he would have a better prospect of bringing both wings of the party together than almost anyone else. Doesn't mean it is possible of course. I also think, equally importantly, that he could bring an element of courtesy and mutual respect back to our politics. That would be welcome after the hyperbole of the last several years.

    Do you mean he would genuinely adopt a kinder gentler politics?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @philiph said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > I have really liked Stewart's contributions to the Brexit debate. He has been nuanced, open to debate, persuasive and tried to build a consensus. Very, very few have done the same right up to our current PM. She made yet another major error in not appointing him Brexit Secretary on the several occasions that she had the opportunity.
    > >
    > > I think he would have a better prospect of bringing both wings of the party together than almost anyone else. Doesn't mean it is possible of course. I also think, equally importantly, that he could bring an element of courtesy and mutual respect back to our politics. That would be welcome after the hyperbole of the last several years.
    >
    > Do you mean he would genuinely adopt a kinder gentler politics?

    Yes I suppose I do. He really has no chance does he? Carefully crafted sound bite personal invective along with bland, meaningless slogans is clearly the way to go.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Good morning, everyone.

    Possible, but other contenders have their bandwagons already.
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 46
    This man would not be acceptable to the Conservative constituences and members. He is a politician to the left of the party, in fact a Blairite. The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114

    Good morning, everyone.

    Possible, but other contenders have their bandwagons already.

    'Bandwagon'?

    Hardly, Mr Dancer. Most of the Conservative Party hopefuls are prime exhibits in the politics freakshow that is current touring the country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    Vinny said:

    The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.

    Which was your favourite right wing election winner?

    IDS or Howard?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,746
    He's too remainy for the tory party members which is not sufficiently counterbalanced by his 18.5 weeks of service in the Black Jocks. He is too weird and geeky looking for the voters so, all in all, no fucking chance.
  • > @Dura_Ace said:
    > He's too remainy for the tory party members which is not sufficiently counterbalanced by his 18.5 weeks of service in the Black Jocks. He is too weird and geeky looking for the voters so, all in all, no fucking chance.

    Yup. And not sure how much the nation wants another Eton/Oxford PM.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.
    >
    > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?
    >
    > IDS or Howard?

    The next leader will be Mark Francois.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,217
    > @Nigelb said:
    > FPT
    > “ Never mind that, just listen to what Farage himself says. This shouldn't be about Alex Jones (of whom hardly anyone in the UK has heard), but Farage..
    >
    > I'm not defending Farage, he shouldn't be speaking to Jones or be saying such things. That said I do wonder how much of it Farage genuinely believes and how much is him playing up to what his host expects from a guest...”
    >
    > How much of anything he ever says does Farage actually believe ?
    >

    Had to look this up.
    "The interview sparked outrage online, with LBC colleague James O'Brien tweeting: "If you appear on Infowars you are legitimising an odious platform that maligns the parents of murdered schoolchildren [and] dishonours the memory of everyone killed in the 9/11 attacks.

    "Racist f***nuggetry is one thing, this is a whole new level of disgusting, even for Farage."
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/outrage-over-nigel-farages-disgusting-appearance-on-show-hosted-by-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones-a3813886.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    Sean_F said:

    The next leader will be Mark Francois.

    But we're being told the Tories won't accept a Remainer.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 318
    Tall poppy syndrome has kept him out of the Cabinet for nearly ten years and would likely do for him in any leadership election. He'd probably get about six votes. A shame as he seems quite impressive - I read his book about his solo trek through Afghanistan some years ago and enjoyed it. Maybe he could make Foreign Secretary.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996

    > @Nigelb said:

    > FPT

    > “ Never mind that, just listen to what Farage himself says. This shouldn't be about Alex Jones (of whom hardly anyone in the UK has heard), but Farage..

    >

    > I'm not defending Farage, he shouldn't be speaking to Jones or be saying such things. That said I do wonder how much of it Farage genuinely believes and how much is him playing up to what his host expects from a guest...”

    >

    > How much of anything he ever says does Farage actually believe ?

    >



    Had to look this up.

    "The interview sparked outrage online, with LBC colleague James O'Brien tweeting: "If you appear on Infowars you are legitimising an odious platform that maligns the parents of murdered schoolchildren [and] dishonours the memory of everyone killed in the 9/11 attacks.



    "Racist f***nuggetry is one thing, this is a whole new level of disgusting, even for Farage."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/outrage-over-nigel-farages-disgusting-appearance-on-show-hosted-by-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones-a3813886.html

    Farage is very good at associating with offensive people, then shunning them when their seediness comes to light. Indeed that has been the entire history of his time in UKIP. He will do the same with his Russian and alt. right american friends when they become a liability. He has no conception of loyalty or of team building, and is a very poor judge of character.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Jessop, a certain level of support from MPs is necessary to reach the latter stages. Those such as Hunt (or, lamentably, Boris) can legitimately dangle Cabinet posts to potential supporters. Rory Stewart will find it a more difficult task to do likewise.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,765
    > @ydoethur said:
    > The next leader will be Mark Francois.
    >
    > But we're being told the Tories won't accept a Remainer.

    Well if he is that's my vote gone for the duration
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.
    > >
    > > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?
    > >
    > > IDS or Howard?
    >
    > The next leader will be Mark Francois.

    The membership would vote for him, but even the Tory MPs are not daft enough to have him in the final two.

    Stewart is simply too ugly to be Prime Minister, Superficial but true.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114

    Mr. Jessop, a certain level of support from MPs is necessary to reach the latter stages. Those such as Hunt (or, lamentably, Boris) can legitimately dangle Cabinet posts to potential supporters. Rory Stewart will find it a more difficult task to do likewise.

    Indeed, but that does not alter my point in any way.

    I'm, not saying Stewart will be next leader/PM; the party has gone too nuts for that. It's just that he perhaps should be, and should certainly be in the running.

    Instead, the MPs and members will vote on the basis of purity of Europhobia, which will be a recipe for disaster for the party and the country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    edited May 7
    Foxy said:

    > @Sean_F said:

    > > @CarlottaVance said:

    > > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.

    > >

    > > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?

    > >

    > > IDS or Howard?

    >

    > The next leader will be Mark Francois.



    The membership would vote for him, but even the Tory MPs are not daft enough to have him in the final two.



    Stewart is simply too ugly to be Prime Minister, Superficial but true.

    Damn, tha means I'm never going to become PM either. Way to kill my dreams first thing in the morning, doc.

    On Stewart more seriously on a political level he certainly deserved promotion and ive seen snippets of him speaking sense on a compelljbgcand convincing way. But he is pretty unknown, and his pragmatic lack of pragmatism ruins him in the eyes of members (by which I mean he wants a pragmatic approach and is not obfuscation about his pragmatism).

    Whether he has the quality who the hell knows but Dura Ace is not the only one ive seen deride his time in Iraq.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114

    > @Nigelb said:

    > FPT

    > “ Never mind that, just listen to what Farage himself says. This shouldn't be about Alex Jones (of whom hardly anyone in the UK has heard), but Farage..

    >

    > I'm not defending Farage, he shouldn't be speaking to Jones or be saying such things. That said I do wonder how much of it Farage genuinely believes and how much is him playing up to what his host expects from a guest...”

    >

    > How much of anything he ever says does Farage actually believe ?

    >



    Had to look this up.

    "The interview sparked outrage online, with LBC colleague James O'Brien tweeting: "If you appear on Infowars you are legitimising an odious platform that maligns the parents of murdered schoolchildren [and] dishonours the memory of everyone killed in the 9/11 attacks.



    "Racist f***nuggetry is one thing, this is a whole new level of disgusting, even for Farage."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/outrage-over-nigel-farages-disgusting-appearance-on-show-hosted-by-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones-a3813886.html

    And he'll be rubbing his hands with glee that we're talking about it.

    You see, it doesn't matter: like Corbyn, those who dislike Farage will tut and show their disgust (rightly, IMO), whilst those who worship him will excuse, play down and deny.

    Such behaviour is priced in, and all it does is give his name continued prominence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540

    ydoethur said:


    But we're being told the Tories won't accept a Remainer.

    Well if he is that's my vote gone for the duration
    Like I say, don't worry. He keeps voting not to leave, so the Tories won't have him...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    If it's not too personal a question to ask, I'm curious as to how many bets at odds greater than, or equal to, 50-1 our esteemed host has made?
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 87
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.
    > > >
    > > > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?
    > > >
    > > > IDS or Howard?
    > >
    > > The next leader will be Mark Francois.
    >
    > The membership would vote for him, but even the Tory MPs are not daft enough to have him in the final two.
    >
    > Stewart is simply too ugly to be Prime Minister, Superficial but true.

    Poor guy looks like a ventriloquist dummy after a fire in a children's home. On topic what odds are still available for him?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    Are the august members of the European Remain Group backing Boris, Raab or someone else? Surely any deal backer should be out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    DavidL said:

    I have really liked Stewart's contributions to the Brexit debate. He has been nuanced, open to debate, persuasive and tried to build a consensus. Very, very few have done the same right up to our current PM. She made yet another major error in not appointing him Brexit Secretary on the several occasions that she had the opportunity.
    I think he would have a better prospect of bringing both wings of the party together than almost anyone else. Doesn't mean it is possible of course. I also think, equally importantly, that he could bring an element of courtesy and mutual respect back to our politics. That would be welcome after the hyperbole of the last several years.

    That’s the case for. Vinny’s case aga
    Foxy said:

    > @Sean_F said:

    > > @CarlottaVance said:

    > > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.

    > >

    > > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?

    > >

    > > IDS or Howard?

    >

    > The next leader will be Mark Francois.



    The membership would vote for him, but even the Tory MPs are not daft enough to have him in the final two.



    Stewart is simply too ugly to be Prime Minister, Superficial but true.

    More uncanny valley than downright ugly.

    He looks a bit how one might imagine a teenage Yoda.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,892
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > If it's not too personal a question to ask, I'm curious as to how many bets at odds greater than, or equal to, 50-1 our esteemed host has made?

    50!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    But we're being told the Tories won't accept a Remainer.

    Well if he is that's my vote gone for the duration
    Like I say, don't worry. He keeps voting not to leave, so the Tories won't have him...
    The best way to prove how much you want to leave is to vote against us leaving.

    (Yes, yes, its not really leaving, whatever- not even the ERG majority believed that, as they proved by voting for it)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    > @kle4 said:

    > Whether he has the quality who the hell knows but Dura Ace is not the only one ive seen deride his time in Iraq.

    I think the British public are unlikely to be grateful to be reminded of that debacle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    edited May 7
    Stewart looks a little like Lee Evans to me for some reason.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,414
    Nigelb said:

    One point in Rory’s favour is that he’s young enough still to be a contender after even a very long period in the wilderness for the Tories...

    Although pre-Cameron 10 years before joining the cabinet would be an inordinately short apprenticeship

    And Cameron did really well, didn’t he
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334
    Nigelb said:

    One point in Rory’s favour is that he’s young enough still to be a contender after even a very long period in the wilderness for the Tories...

    He must have had a hard paperround as a boy then
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334
    IanB2 said:

    Fpt:



    > @SirBenjamin said:

    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:

    > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    > >

    > > >

    > > > The worst prime minister since Lord North was David Cameron, who contrived by his own efforts to lose Europe shortly after almost losing Scotland. In neither case was he the victim of adverse circumstance: no oil price shock, no foreign invasion, no global financial crisis; just Cameron's own decisions. Theresa May is the worst since Cameron, but that is not saying much as she is also the first.

    > >

    > > 2010-2016 was the golden age of government. No-one reading this will see a better government in their lifetime, as I haven't (apart from the very special case of Maggie) in mine.

    >

    >

    > Agreed. I fear that it is closest thing to a Libertarian government that we shall ever see. For shame.

    —————————-

    2010-15, really, which is the key point. He thrived in coalition and it suited him greatly, giving him the cover to do many of the things he wanted but would otherwise have been unable to do. Ultimately his failure was not having the courage or strength to be his own man and turn his party in his direction, instead hiding behind the coalition, and not having the convictions to carry through on what he achieved. Such that when he got his unexpected majority, everything fell apart. Just like our EU membership, he had to appear to tolerate rather than embrace coalition, not realising how good for him it was until it was gone. Seen like this, Brexit is part of a bigger picture rather than merely a costly aberration.

    He was a wobbly jelly, no backbone or principles.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642
    Excellent person in every way but to be leader he would have to be in the last two with another moderate remainer against him which in current circumstances can't happen; so unless a Foinavon pile up happens he can't win. Great that he is in the cabinet. Wish he could be PM, but hope for foreign secretary.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334

    > @Foxy said:

    > > @Sean_F said:

    > > > @CarlottaVance said:

    > > > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.

    > > >

    > > > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?

    > > >

    > > > IDS or Howard?

    > >

    > > The next leader will be Mark Francois.

    >

    > The membership would vote for him, but even the Tory MPs are not daft enough to have him in the final two.

    >

    > Stewart is simply too ugly to be Prime Minister, Superficial but true.



    Poor guy looks like a ventriloquist dummy after a fire in a children's home. On topic what odds are still available for him?

    you flatter him
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,746
    kle4 said:


    Whether he has the quality who the hell knows but Dura Ace is not the only one ive seen deride his time in Iraq.

    He has somehow managed to market himself off the back of that catastrophe as a latter day Burton/Thesiger/Lawrence. So there is obviously some innate talent for dissembling there which will continue to serve him well in his political career.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @ydoethur said:
    > The next leader will be Mark Francois.
    >
    > But we're being told the Tories won't accept a Remainer.

    He proves his zeal for Brexit by voting against it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    One point in Rory’s favour is that he’s young enough still to be a contender after even a very long period in the wilderness for the Tories...

    He must have had a hard paperround as a boy then
    He looks both old and young at the same time somehow
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    >
    > > Whether he has the quality who the hell knows but Dura Ace is not the only one ive seen deride his time in Iraq.
    >
    > I think the British public are unlikely to be grateful to be reminded of that debacle.

    And take being Governor of Iraq at 29. Regardless of whether he was good at it (though everyone 'knows' Iraq was a debacle so the answer is unlikely to be thought of as positive) having a Governor aged under 30 is more likely to be seen as part of the lack of preparation for the Occupation rather than as a mark of particular ability on his part.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    One point in Rory’s favour is that he’s young enough still to be a contender after even a very long period in the wilderness for the Tories...

    He must have had a hard paperround as a boy then
    He looks both old and young at the same time somehow
    Yes and talks sense but is not and will not ever be PM material. Does not sound evil enough to lead the nasty party, must have got mixed up when he joined politics and then could not change,
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642
    Foxy said:

    > @Nigelb said:

    > FPT

    > “ Never mind that, just listen to what Farage himself says. This shouldn't be about Alex Jones (of whom hardly anyone in the UK has heard), but Farage..

    >

    > I'm not defending Farage, he shouldn't be speaking to Jones or be saying such things. That said I do wonder how much of it Farage genuinely believes and how much is him playing up to what his host expects from a guest...”

    >

    > How much of anything he ever says does Farage actually believe ?

    >



    Had to look this up.

    "The interview sparked outrage online, with LBC colleague James O'Brien tweeting: "If you appear on Infowars you are legitimising an odious platform that maligns the parents of murdered schoolchildren [and] dishonours the memory of everyone killed in the 9/11 attacks.



    "Racist f***nuggetry is one thing, this is a whole new level of disgusting, even for Farage."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/outrage-over-nigel-farages-disgusting-appearance-on-show-hosted-by-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones-a3813886.html

    Farage is very good at associating with offensive people, then shunning them when their seediness comes to light. Indeed that has been the entire history of his time in UKIP. He will do the same with his Russian and alt. right american friends when they become a liability. He has no conception of loyalty or of team building, and is a very poor judge of character.

    You are assessing him for the wrong job. He is a campaigner, an agitator, a change maker not a leader of a country. We are incredibly fortunate to have someone doing that for the Brexit cause who is neither a fascist nor a Marxist.

    BTW, leaders, including ours, associate with offensive people and then don't shun them.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,221
    > @kle4 said:
    > Stewart looks a little like Lee Evans to me for some reason.

    With the right beard he could pass for Abraham Lincoln.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 468
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    > @Nigelb said:

    > FPT

    > “ Never mind that, just listen to what Farage himself says. This shouldn't be about Alex Jones (of whom hardly anyone in the UK has heard), but Farage..

    >

    > I'm not defending Farage, he shouldn't be speaking to Jones or be saying such things. That said I do wonder how much of it Farage genuinely believes and how much is him playing up to what his host expects from a guest...”

    >

    > How much of anything he ever says does Farage actually believe ?

    >



    Had to look this up.

    "The interview sparked outrage online, with LBC colleague James O'Brien tweeting: "If you appear on Infowars you are legitimising an odious platform that maligns the parents of murdered schoolchildren [and] dishonours the memory of everyone killed in the 9/11 attacks.



    "Racist f***nuggetry is one thing, this is a whole new level of disgusting, even for Farage."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/outrage-over-nigel-farages-disgusting-appearance-on-show-hosted-by-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones-a3813886.html

    Farage is very good at associating with offensive people, then shunning them when their seediness comes to light. Indeed that has been the entire history of his time in UKIP. He will do the same with his Russian and alt. right american friends when they become a liability. He has no conception of loyalty or of team building, and is a very poor judge of character.

    You are assessing him for the wrong job. He is a campaigner, an agitator, a change maker not a leader of a country. We are incredibly fortunate to have someone doing that for the Brexit cause who is neither a fascist nor a Marxist.

    BTW, leaders, including ours, associate with offensive people and then don't shun them.

    Yes, and his campaign for the Brexit cause is going so well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,948
    Rory seems a little remote and intellectual to be Tory leader. Can’t quite see him rallying the troops with red meat.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Jonathan, to be fair, May's hardly rallying the troops with red meat.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,668
    > @IanB2 said:
    > Fpt:
    >
    > > @SirBenjamin said:
    > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > The worst prime minister since Lord North was David Cameron, who contrived by his own efforts to lose Europe shortly after almost losing Scotland. In neither case was he the victim of adverse circumstance: no oil price shock, no foreign invasion, no global financial crisis; just Cameron's own decisions. Theresa May is the worst since Cameron, but that is not saying much as she is also the first.
    > > >
    > > > 2010-2016 was the golden age of government. No-one reading this will see a better government in their lifetime, as I haven't (apart from the very special case of Maggie) in mine.
    > >
    > >
    > > Agreed. I fear that it is closest thing to a Libertarian government that we shall ever see. For shame.
    > —————————-
    > 2010-15, really, which is the key point. He thrived in coalition and it suited him greatly, giving him the cover to do many of the things he wanted but would otherwise have been unable to do. Ultimately his failure was not having the courage or strength to be his own man and turn his party in his direction, instead hiding behind the coalition, and not having the convictions to carry through on what he achieved. Such that when he got his unexpected majority, everything fell apart. Just like our EU membership, he had to appear to tolerate rather than embrace coalition, not realising how good for him it was until it was gone. Seen like this, Brexit is part of a bigger picture rather than merely a costly aberration.
    >
    >

    The coalition years sowed the seeds.

    Triple locking pensions and tripling student fees
    A trillion quid borrowed with a consequent increase in the current account deficit
    Subsidised house prices and falling home ownership
    International posturing and Middle Eastern warmongering
    Uncontrolled immigration and vanity projects
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,668
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > > The Party has had enough of centre-lefties, more than enough, and wants a new leader from the right next time.
    > > >
    > > > Which was your favourite right wing election winner?
    > > >
    > > > IDS or Howard?
    > >
    > > The next leader will be Mark Francois.
    >
    > The membership would vote for him, but even the Tory MPs are not daft enough to have him in the final two.
    >
    > Stewart is simply too ugly to be Prime Minister, Superficial but true.

    I think you're right.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    Is Stewart sufficiently 'one of us'? According to Wikipedia he seriously thought about which party he should join in order to get into Parliament and was advised to join the Tories, since, in 2008 or so, Labour was obviously running out of steam.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,827
    I think there's a reason that his promotion took forever despite his obvious credentials. Can't see him making the last two.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,827
    > @Nigelb said:
    > I can’t see how he is convincingly going to persuade the membership that he is sufficiently demented about Brexit and he isn’t going to be unopposed. So he remains a longshot, irrespective of his talents.
    >
    > Agreed..
    > The only way he’s likely to become next leader is if May stays for a decade until it’s all over. That seems.... implausible.

    You sure? Have you been studying Mrs May's approach to politics...?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,648

    Is Stewart sufficiently 'one of us'? According to Wikipedia he seriously thought about which party he should join in order to get into Parliament and was advised to join the Tories, since, in 2008 or so, Labour was obviously running out of steam.

    A Conservative by convenience rather than conviction. Should be a no-hoper.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,892
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Rory seems a little remote and intellectual to be Tory leader. Can’t quite see him rallying the troops with red meat.

    After the years of May's vegan sausage rolls, the Party is going to be looking for the political full English....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    Good to have a thread on Rory. I have been on him for some time, and now very much green.

    However, I can't see a way gets passed the membership vote realistically.

    Maybe he is the one for after the chaos of a Boris premiership?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,431

    After the years of May's vegan sausage rolls, the Party is going to be looking for the political full English....

    And the subsequent heart attack
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,372
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's too remainy for the tory party members which is not sufficiently counterbalanced by his 18.5 weeks of service in the Black Jocks. He is too weird and geeky looking for the voters so, all in all, no fucking chance.

    But on the plus side, he's the first guy I am going to go to if I have an evil magic ring that needs to be destroyed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,469
    I see PB has its new Ruth Davidson du jour, with Rory having the practical advantage of being an actual mp & therefore in a position to grasp the poison chalice. He needs to do more reverse ferreting and offer his sponge making skills to the public for the full Ruth.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,924
    > @Scott_P said:
    > After the years of May's vegan sausage rolls, the Party is going to be looking for the political full English....
    >
    > And the subsequent heart attack

    The "heart attack" would surely be appoint a full blooded Brexiteer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    I see Lab-Con talks may well resume today.

    What a waste of hot air.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @geoffw said:
    > Is Stewart sufficiently 'one of us'? According to Wikipedia he seriously thought about which party he should join in order to get into Parliament and was advised to join the Tories, since, in 2008 or so, Labour was obviously running out of steam.
    >
    > A Conservative by convenience rather than conviction. Should be a no-hoper.

    Quite. Had to go and have my breakfast immediately after posting, but the thought went through my mind that while those of May's and Corbyn's persuasions are wildly unlikely to see operation with each other as a realistic prospect, the likes of Starmer and Stewart would take a different view.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    Suddenly the plp is tremendously concerned about the membership's concerns. A concern that didn't seem to be there when they were VNOC Corbyn...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,210
    Rory-watching is one of pb's stranger peccadilloes
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642

    > @geoffw said:

    > Is Stewart sufficiently 'one of us'? According to Wikipedia he seriously thought about which party he should join in order to get into Parliament and was advised to join the Tories, since, in 2008 or so, Labour was obviously running out of steam.

    >

    > A Conservative by convenience rather than conviction. Should be a no-hoper.



    Quite. Had to go and have my breakfast immediately after posting, but the thought went through my mind that while those of May's and Corbyn's persuasions are wildly unlikely to see operation with each other as a realistic prospect, the likes of Starmer and Stewart would take a different view.


    What in real substance are the fundamental differences between a moderate centrist Tory (Clarke, Spelman) and a moderate centrist Labour person (Kendall, Hilary Benn) - ignoring the rhetoric? It is quite rational for someone wanting a career in politics to think the party thing through, otherwise only extremists would join up. Rory Stewart happens to be honest and thoughtful. It means he can't be leader but he will still serve us well.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    If Rory has announced he intends to run, then presumably he has some kind of backing from backbench MPs? Maybe only a few, but must have at least enough to do some of the background organizing and whipping for a pitch.

    Do we know any names?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @rottenborough said:
    > If Rory has announced he intends to run, then presumably he has some kind of backing from backbench MPs? Maybe only a few, but must have at least enough to do some of the background organizing and whipping for a pitch.
    >
    > Do we know any names?

    The soft Brexit/remainer contingent maybe -
    Letwin, Soames, Hammond (Both of them) ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    Pulpstar said:

    > @rottenborough said:

    > If Rory has announced he intends to run, then presumably he has some kind of backing from backbench MPs? Maybe only a few, but must have at least enough to do some of the background organizing and whipping for a pitch.

    >

    > Do we know any names?



    The soft Brexit/remainer contingent maybe -

    Letwin, Soames, Hammond (Both of them) ?

    Maybe. Certainly could see the former two.

    But also there are usually some young, hungry MPs as well, who can do the legwork and expect reward in a future administration.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @algarkirk said:
    > > @geoffw said:
    >
    > > Is Stewart sufficiently 'one of us'? According to Wikipedia he seriously thought about which party he should join in order to get into Parliament and was advised to join the Tories, since, in 2008 or so, Labour was obviously running out of steam.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > A Conservative by convenience rather than conviction. Should be a no-hoper.
    >
    >
    >
    > Quite. Had to go and have my breakfast immediately after posting, but the thought went through my mind that while those of May's and Corbyn's persuasions are wildly unlikely to see operation with each other as a realistic prospect, the likes of Starmer and Stewart would take a different view.
    >
    >
    > What in real substance are the fundamental differences between a moderate centrist Tory (Clarke, Spelman) and a moderate centrist Labour person (Kendall, Hilary Benn) - ignoring the rhetoric? It is quite rational for someone wanting a career in politics to think the party thing through, otherwise only extremists would join up. Rory Stewart happens to be honest and thoughtful. It means he can't be leader but he will still serve us well.

    I don't disagree; I would far rather have people who can disagree on some things, even have a different philosophy but still agree and co-operate on others.
    However, while you and I clearly agree on the point, there are, I fear, others who do not. And such people are more frequently found at the top of politics today than in the past.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,441
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > Rory-watching is one of pb's stranger peccadilloes

    Rory-mania on pb dates from that curious time when any old soldier was proposed as a future party leader, normally with a note about a good back-story. Dan Jarvis was one for Labour.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009
    > @IanB2 said:
    > Fpt:
    >
    > > @SirBenjamin said:
    > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > The worst prime minister since Lord North was David Cameron, who contrived by his own efforts to lose Europe shortly after almost losing Scotland. In neither case was he the victim of adverse circumstance: no oil price shock, no foreign invasion, no global financial crisis; just Cameron's own decisions. Theresa May is the worst since Cameron, but that is not saying much as she is also the first.
    > > >
    > > > 2010-2016 was the golden age of government. No-one reading this will see a better government in their lifetime, as I haven't (apart from the very special case of Maggie) in mine.
    > >
    > >
    > > Agreed. I fear that it is closest thing to a Libertarian government that we shall ever see. For shame.
    > —————————-
    > 2010-15, really, which is the key point. He thrived in coalition and it suited him greatly, giving him the cover to do many of the things he wanted but would otherwise have been unable to do. Ultimately his failure was not having the courage or strength to be his own man and turn his party in his direction, instead hiding behind the coalition, and not having the convictions to carry through on what he achieved. Such that when he got his unexpected majority, everything fell apart. Just like our EU membership, he had to appear to tolerate rather than embrace coalition, not realising how good for him it was until it was gone. Seen like this, Brexit is part of a bigger picture rather than merely a costly aberration.
    >
    >
    -------------------------------
    "Ultimately his failure was not having the courage or strength to be his own man and turn his party in his direction."

    Precisely. He appeased the nutters when he could, and should, have challenged them. A catastrophic failure of courage and judgement.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    I see that Hunt has now softened his rhetoric and is calling for a Corbynite soft Brexit. The Tories must have been spooked by the Lib Dems after the local elections. As for Stewart, we'll know whether the other candidates regard him as a threat if we start getting mysterious Swift Boat rumours about his service record.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Stewart gives every impression of being rational, smart and prepared to compromise. I’d say 100-1 is too short a price.

    That may well be so. But a number of the MPs and members who he needs to persuade give every impression of being everything but rational, smart and prepared to compromise. So I'm with Mr Meeks on this. He remains a long shot. Sadly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    Morning PB,

    Therea's got the "Men in grey suits" calling round today then? :D
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Dawning, that impression may be altered if, as expected, Farage's new political vehicle achieves a victory in the EU election.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,924
    I understand how Rory might built a coalition among the public, but much less how he builds one in the parliamentary party. I think he would gain from a Brexit progressing to the next stage, like Javid would.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    edited May 7
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > Rory-mania on pb dates from that curious time when any old soldier was proposed as a future party leader, normally with a note about a good back-story. Dan Jarvis was one for Labour.

    Military people often seem to get talked up in politics, but then it doesn't happen. Wesley Clark was another one.

    That said, I'm endorsing Dura Ace for any office he chooses to run for.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,921
    Hate to be shallow but Rory Stewart really does not have the look. Narrow shoulders, short and slight of frame, a face that is distinctly interesting. His voice is rather unusual too. Good guy, though, I like him a lot. On TV, that is, since that is all the direct evidence I have. Wonder what he's like to work for? I would like to know because this, for me, is an acid test of someone's character. Does he get results by inspiring people or by bullying them? Is he a prince among men or is he a little shit?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > Morning PB,
    >
    > Therea's got the "Men in grey suits" calling round today then? :D

    She could always do an IDS and threaten to put them in a telephone box and strip them naked.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/under-siege-in-fortress-tory-zgnmdn095cf
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @kinabalu said:
    > Hate to be shallow but Rory Stewart really does not have the look. Narrow shoulders, short and slight of frame, a face that is distinctly interesting. His voice is rather unusual too. Good guy, though, I like him a lot. On TV, that is, since that is all the direct evidence I have. Wonder what he's like to work for? I would like to know because this, for me, is an acid test of someone's character. Does he get results by inspiring people or by bullying them? Is he a prince among men or is he a little shit?

    IIRC Dura Ace, who claims (I think) to have some experience of him, doesn't rate him that highly.
    However, I may be wrong, and if so I'm sure someone will correct me!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    Mr. Dawning, that impression may be altered if, as expected, Farage's new political vehicle achieves a victory in the EU election.

    Given that this is expected, it's the impact of an unexpected result you should worry about.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828
    Mind you, the Tory party does have form in the past choosing the unlikely candidate. Mrs T anyone? Wrong sex, horrible voice, not at all "one of us", seen as a no-hoper and not at all with the zeitgeist (all that suburban gentility was snobbishly derided) but did herself good amongst MPs by her attacks on Labour in Parliament on the Finance Bill and by being the only Cabinet Minister willing to challenge an unpopular and failing leader.

    Still think the odds are against him but it is not inconceivable, depending on what happens in the next few months, that an outsider might sneak through.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    radsatser said:

    I see the chattering classes have resumed their 'shock, horror....he must explain himself'..... dirt digging on Farage and anybody who gets involved with the Brexit Party.



    Predictable, pointless, pathetic and piss poor strategy as well, simply because if you have been awake at all over the last 10 years, every pointless attack on him is just supercharging his message, and the now mainstream view that he is the 'only' one that can address the attack on our democracy.

    Infantile guilt by tenuous association tactic that trolls seem to think makes them look clever and delivers a killer point. People with common sense just roll their eyes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,259
    radsatser said:

    I see the chattering classes have resumed their 'shock, horror....he must explain himself'..... dirt digging on Farage and anybody who gets involved with the Brexit Party.



    Predictable, pointless, pathetic and piss poor strategy as well, simply because if you have been awake at all over the last 10 years, every pointless attack on him is just supercharging his message, and the now mainstream view that he is the 'only' one that can address the attack on our democracy.

    Amazing appear once (6 times) on a vile conspiracy theorists show and people start questioning you.

    What is the world coming to?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,892
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > After the years of May's vegan sausage rolls, the Party is going to be looking for the political full English....
    > >
    > > And the subsequent heart attack
    >
    > The "heart attack" would surely be appoint a full blooded Brexiteer

    The chunky rashers might be mistaken by some for gammon.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,921
    > @radsatser said:
    > I see the chattering classes have resumed their 'shock, horror....he must explain himself'..... dirt digging on Farage and anybody who gets involved with the Brexit Party.
    >
    > Predictable, pointless, pathetic and piss poor strategy as well, simply because if you have been awake at all over the last 10 years, every pointless attack on him is just supercharging his message, and the now mainstream view that he is the 'only' one that can address the attack on our democracy.

    *

    "Dear radsatser,

    How should we deal with Nigel Farage then?

    Yours sincerely

    The Chattering Classes"
This discussion has been closed.