> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > We > @Foxy said: > > > > > @saddo said: > > > > > > @solarflare said: > > > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"? > > > > > > > > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May. > > > > > > > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what. > > > > > > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage. > > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too > > > > An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested. > > I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too.
If the LDs pick up virtually all Labour Remainers and a lot of Tory Remainers not impossible they could come top but only in those circumstances
Can anyone help me by explaining how I cut and paste a picture into a comment? I normally find it easy enough to cut and paste pics into emails and Word but when I try paste into a post here nothing appears.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > We > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @saddo said: > > > > > > > @solarflare said: > > > > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"? > > > > > > > > > > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May. > > > > > > > > > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what. > > > > > > > > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage. > > > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too > > > > > > > An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested. > > > > I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too. > > If the LDs pick up virtually all Labour Remainers and a lot of Tory Remainers not impossible they could come top but only in those circumstances
Yes, I thought 130/1 tempting, but I think many Labour Remainers will go Green too.
Can anyone help me by explaining how I cut and paste a picture into a comment? I normally find it easy enough to cut and paste pics into emails and Word but when I try paste into a post here nothing appears.
Thanks
PtP
Take a screenshot then click the icon on the right and choose it
I used to live in Trumpington. Growing up our local (Tory) mayor was a butcher who lived 2 doors down the road. It was a real mix of leafy suburb and council estate, country walks, happy memories.
Waverley's new political line up has until the 21st to organise the future. I wonder if the Farnham Residents and Lib Dems can do a deal to take over the council from the Conservatives.
Can anyone help me by explaining how I cut and paste a picture into a comment? I normally find it easy enough to cut and paste pics into emails and Word but when I try paste into a post here nothing appears.
Thanks
PtP
Take a screenshot then click the icon on the right and choose it
Only works on the vanilla site... the buttons don't appear on the politicalbetting.com unless you are editing your post.
I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
On a slightly related, I'd be interested in your take on the Paternoster result. I realise you may not have had much involvement in the campaign but this was a gain from the Conservatives and a sitting Councillor defeated.
Was it evident on the doorsteps the For Britain candidate was going to do so well or was it a genuine surprise?
On a night when you defended so many other seats, I'm puzzled as to how this one got away.
Can anyone help me by explaining how I cut and paste a picture into a comment? I normally find it easy enough to cut and paste pics into emails and Word but when I try paste into a post here nothing appears.
Thanks
PtP
Take a screenshot then click the icon on the right and choose it
Only works on the vanilla site... the buttons don't appear on the politicalbetting.com unless you are editing your post.
> @rcs1000 said: > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
> > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> >
>
> > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
>
>
>
> a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates
>
> How do you know?
The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate
That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???
Can anyone help me by explaining how I cut and paste a picture into a comment? I normally find it easy enough to cut and paste pics into emails and Word but when I try paste into a post here nothing appears.
Thanks
PtP
Take a screenshot then click the icon on the right and choose it
Only works on the vanilla site... the buttons don't appear on the politicalbetting.com unless you are editing your post.
Use the vanilla site then! 😂
I am (to avoid the >>> problem, although I'd prefer the PB.com site if and when blockquotes start working again).
I was merely pointing it out to @Peter_the_Punter in case he was using PB.com and therefore mystified by your suggested solution.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > We > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > @saddo said: > > > > > > > > @solarflare said: > > > > > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May. > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what. > > > > > > > > > > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage. > > > > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too > > > > > > > > > > An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested. > > > > > > I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too. > > > > If the LDs pick up virtually all Labour Remainers and a lot of Tory Remainers not impossible they could come top but only in those circumstances > > Yes, I thought 130/1 tempting, but I think many Labour Remainers will go Green too.
YouGov has 15% of 2017 Labour voters going Green, 11% going Brexit Party, 10% going LD (the same as CUK).
It has only 3% of 2017 Tories going LD (the same as going Green), 6% going CUK.
Amongst Remainers as a whole though 17% say they will vote LD in the European elections, more than the 15% going Green and the 15% going for CUK and the 12% voting Tory
Can anyone help me by explaining how I cut and paste a picture into a comment? I normally find it easy enough to cut and paste pics into emails and Word but when I try paste into a post here nothing appears.
Thanks
PtP
Take a screenshot then click the icon on the right and choose it
Only works on the vanilla site... the buttons don't appear on the politicalbetting.com unless you are editing your post.
Use the vanilla site then! 😂
I am (to avoid the >>> problem, although I'd prefer the PB.com site if and when blockquotes start working again).
I was merely pointing it out to @Peter_the_Punter in case he was using PB.com and therefore mystified by your suggested solution.
> I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
>
> 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
>
> 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
>
> It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
I think a 2nd referendum with 3 options (Remain, Deal, No Deal) under some kind of AV is now increasingly likely.
> @Streeter said: > > @Streeter said: > > > > @algarkirk said: > > > > > > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more. > > > > > > > > > > > > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates > > > > > > How do you know? > > The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate > > That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???
Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party
Have BP revealed their candidate for Peterborough by election yet?
No annunziatament has been made yet.
Can it be someone who is an MEP?
I don't see why not. If there's a rule that you can do both jobs she could resign as MEP and the BP can just pick the next available person on their list to replace her.
> @williamglenn said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
Indeed, and it will be tricky for the Tories to hold onto those Northern Leavers once Brexit has happened.
> > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> >
> > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> >
> > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> >
> > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
>
> It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
Indeed, and it will be tricky for the Tories to hold onto those Northern Leavers once Brexit has happened.
And any GE could still be 2 years after Brexit, so they may not even gain them in the first place.
> @stodge said: > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too > > On a slightly related, I'd be interested in your take on the Paternoster result. I realise you may not have had much involvement in the campaign but this was a gain from the Conservatives and a sitting Councillor defeated. > > Was it evident on the doorsteps the For Britain candidate was going to do so well or was it a genuine surprise? > > On a night when you defended so many other seats, I'm puzzled as to how this one got away.
The focus was on Buckhurst Hill West and Epping Lindsey and Thornwood which were the key marginals we narrowly held from the LDs.
Waltham Abbey took a little while to get organised and found a lot of angry Leavers and Britain First heavily targeted Paternoster and took advantage of that anger and on a low turnout of less than 30% they won the seat (though the Tories also lost Epping Hemnall to the LDs to give the LDs all 3 District seats now and Waltham Abbey SW to the Greens)
> @rcs1000 said: > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
The same problem faces Labour
1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
> @HYUFD said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > The same problem faces Labour > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns. > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
> @justin124 said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125837612076412929?s=20 > > > > Sheffield 1992? > > From how far are these people being bussed in? Not really, Sheffield 1992 did not come after Labour winning the general election and still not being in power as is the equivalent with the Brexit rally given we are still in the EU 3 years after Leave won the referendum
> @rcs1000 said: > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
I doubt a softer Brexit would lose votes in Leave areas as long as it achieved Brexit.
Few people actually care about trade deals and customs treaties.
What would damage the Conservatives is attempting a softer Brexit but still failing to achieve it.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > The same problem faces Labour > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns. > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens.
In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
Many independent gains were in places like Bolsover, Ashfield, Basildon, Scarborough, Stockton, Barnsley, Hartlepool, Tendring, Maldon, Braintree, Thurrock.
The likelihood of it it being 'leaver' related in some way must be reasonably high.
I guess, just from a quick perusal of the BBC interactive map, that the Independents tended to gain in areas where Lib Dems/Greens didn't. Another clue, probably.
This cat and mouse game between the Tories and Labour will keep going until the Brexit Party sweeps to victory in the European elections then wins the Peterborough by election.
Only when they are panicked about losing their seats will a majority of their MPs vote for a compromise deal (although even then Labour MPs from Remain seats will push for EUref2 and the ERG hardliners will stay opposed)
Mood music from the infamous customs union talks doesn't sound good tonight.
I am shocked, I tell you, shocked.
If Labour had been serious about negotiations, would they have sent Rebecca Long-Bailey, who is dogmatist of limited intelligence noted for her extreme rudeness? Or Macdonnell, who won't even talk to members of his own party if they dare to criticise him?
That said, I don't know who the Tory negotiators were but it's hard to imagine they were much better.
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > The same problem faces Labour > > > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns. > > > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands > > > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it. > > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens. > > > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > > > The same problem faces Labour > > > > > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns. > > > > > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands > > > > > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it. > > > > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens. > > > > > > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents > > Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition.
May 1992 was just after losing the general election so does not count, in 1991 Labour gained 584 councillors.
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > > > > > The same problem faces Labour > > > > > > > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns. > > > > > > > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands > > > > > > > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it. > > > > > > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens. > > > > > > > > > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents > > > > Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition. > > May 1992 was at the same time as the general election so does not count, in 1991 Labour gained 584 councillors. > > >
The 1992 general election took place on 9th April.
> @williamglenn said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > > > > > > > The same problem faces Labour > > > > > > > > > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns. > > > > > > > > > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands > > > > > > > > > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it. > > > > > > > > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens. > > > > > > > > > > > > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents > > > > > > Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition. > > > > May 1992 was at the same time as the general election so does not count, in 1991 Labour gained 584 councillors. > > > > > > > > The 1992 general election took place on 9th April.
Yes and Labour lost it which was why they lost council seats the following month
> @rcs1000 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit. > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in. > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have: > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy. > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy. > > At the moment there have been more votes for May's Deal in the Commons than for 2 and Deal plus CU has been closer to a Commons majority than 1 so I am not sure that follows
In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
Delusion. If May's deal passes, we will enter into years of negotiations which could possibly conclude with some new regime on migration. No-one is going to be celebrating the end of free movement in the middle of a standstill transition while Brexit negotiations continue with no end in sight.
Cameron was quite right though. The unhinged ravings of a third-rate drunk infamous for his sweetheart tax deals and his shall we say innovative use of intelligence services to harass his opponents on how a federal Europe would be not only beneficial but vital to Britain would have been the best way to ensure the result was 75-25 to leave.
Although there would probably have been less faffing around afterwards.
> @ydoethur said: > Yes, well - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7001795/Brussels-bureaucrat-Juncker-says-EU-interfered-Brexit-referendum-campaign.html - if they’d listened to me they would have got involved. > > Cameron was quite right though. The unhinged ravings of a third-rate drunk infamous for his sweetheart tax deals and his shall we say innovative use of intelligence services to harass his opponents on how a federal Europe would be not only beneficial but vital to Britain would have been the best way to ensure the result was 75-25 to leave. > > Although there would probably have been less faffing around afterwards.
What was really needed from Juncker and Tusk was something akin to the 'vow' Cameron and Brown promised shortly before indyref2014, that could have given Remain a narrow victory as No narrowly won in Scotland
> @rcs1000 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit. > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in. > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have: > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy. > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy. > >
Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
> @Sean_F said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit. > > > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in. > > > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have: > > > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy. > > > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy. > > > > > > Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
But they have no brains!
And also still require another party to back it too.
> @Sean_F said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit. > > > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in. > > > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have: > > > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy. > > > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy. > > > > > > Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
What was really needed from Juncker and Tusk was something akin to the 'vow' Cameron and Brown promised shortly before indyref2014, that could have given Remain a narrow victory as No narrowly won in Scotland
Nobody would have believed it. Partly, of course, because of Cameron's broken promises over Scotland. But more so because nobody trusts Juncker - rightly - and at that time nobody had heard of Tusk. Much, much better for them to stay quiet.
Great. Mind you be fun to see him try to run stuff instead of making speeches without any responsibility. And who would he blame when everything didn't turn out perfect? Doubtless the EU, remoaners, foreigners or some other fifth columnists.
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125837612076412929?s=20 > > > > > > Sheffield 1992? > > > > From how far are these people being bussed in? > Not really, Sheffield 1992 did not come after Labour winning the general election and still not being in power as is the equivalent with the Brexit rally given we are still in the EU 3 years after Leave won the referendum >
61% of Tory Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, just 22% will vote Tory a new ConHome Tory members' poll finds
Cameron was quite right though. The unhinged ravings of a third-rate drunk infamous for his sweetheart tax deals and his shall we say innovative use of intelligence services to harass his opponents on how a federal Europe would be not only beneficial but vital to Britain would have been the best way to ensure the result was 75-25 to leave.
Although there would probably have been less faffing around afterwards.
I’m not sure. A bit more Donald Tusk, a bit less Arron Banks might have resulted in a bit more honesty.
"Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
> > From how far are these people being bussed in?
> Not really, Sheffield 1992 did not come after Labour winning the general election and still not being in power as is the equivalent with the Brexit rally given we are still in the EU 3 years after Leave won the referendum
> @rottenborough said: > Telegraph: > > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
There is no point in negotiating with a zombie government. Both Lab and the EU27 need to wait for the next leader.
"Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
> @DavidL said: > > @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > Thoughts with TSE at this miraculous time. > > As a United fan I just have to say wow. What a team, what a manager.
On 2 days rest, missing key players and with robertson kicked off the pitch by suarez.... only for the sub to score 2 huge goals... surely all english fans are pleased for the scousers tonight?
> @rottenborough said: > Telegraph: > > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
Stunning performance and wonderful crowd . Even though I’m a long suffering Arsenal fan I was a bag of nerves and extremely happy to see Liverpool get through .
The Liverpool players were all heroes tonight , huge respect.
The Middle East is looking tense right now. Potential pre-emptive US strikes on Iranian missile sites. Could easily change Brexit debate and news priorities.
> @Foxy said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices: > > > > > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia. > > > > > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan. > > > > > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it. > > > > > > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit. > > > > > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in. > > > > > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have: > > > > > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy. > > > > > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy. > > > > > > > > > > Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's. > > But they have no brains! > > And also still require another party to back it too. > >
That's why it's a no brainer. But, Ydoethur has identified the flaw in my argument.
Klopp has done well to reach a second Champions League Final, it would be a pity if they don't win on June 1st. I hope that Livepool have a fitting end to the season that night, not many teams have recovered from a 0-3 drubbing in Barcelona.
The Middle East is looking tense right now. Potential pre-emptive US strikes on Iranian missile sites. Could easily change Brexit debate and news priorities.
Jon Bolton managed to get Trump to listen to his madcap theories for five minutes?
Comments
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > We > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @saddo said:
> > > > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
> > > > >
> > > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
> > > >
> > > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
> > >
> > > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage.
> > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
> >
>
> An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested.
>
> I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too.
If the LDs pick up virtually all Labour Remainers and a lot of Tory Remainers not impossible they could come top but only in those circumstances
Thanks
PtP
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > We > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @saddo said:
> > > > > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
> > > >
> > > > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage.
> > > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
> > >
> >
> > An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested.
> >
> > I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too.
>
> If the LDs pick up virtually all Labour Remainers and a lot of Tory Remainers not impossible they could come top but only in those circumstances
Yes, I thought 130/1 tempting, but I think many Labour Remainers will go Green too.
> Tipping my hat to David Howarth XMP, the most surprising result in Cambridge was that the LibDems held Trumpington, after this extraordinary debacle,
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-44047135
>
I used to live in Trumpington. Growing up our local (Tory) mayor was a butcher who lived 2 doors down the road. It was a real mix of leafy suburb and council estate, country walks, happy memories.
Mind you I did not realise we had a university until I saw this video - look at the t-shirt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxQD1MNbdeg
1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
Was it evident on the doorsteps the For Britain candidate was going to do so well or was it a genuine surprise?
On a night when you defended so many other seats, I'm puzzled as to how this one got away.
> I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
>
> 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
>
> 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
>
> It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
I was merely pointing it out to @Peter_the_Punter in case he was using PB.com and therefore mystified by your suggested solution.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > We > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > @saddo said:
> > > > > > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
> > > > >
> > > > > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage.
> > > > That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
> > > >
> > >
> > > An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested.
> > >
> > > I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too.
> >
> > If the LDs pick up virtually all Labour Remainers and a lot of Tory Remainers not impossible they could come top but only in those circumstances
>
> Yes, I thought 130/1 tempting, but I think many Labour Remainers will go Green too.
YouGov has 15% of 2017 Labour voters going Green, 11% going Brexit Party, 10% going LD (the same as CUK).
It has only 3% of 2017 Tories going LD (the same as going Green), 6% going CUK.
Amongst Remainers as a whole though 17% say they will vote LD in the European elections, more than the 15% going Green and the 15% going for CUK and the 12% voting Tory
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
> test
>
> @isam said:
> https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1125845262369472513
Have BP revealed their candidate for Peterborough by election yet?
> > @Streeter said:
>
> > > @algarkirk said:
>
> >
>
> > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates
>
> >
>
> > How do you know?
>
> The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate
>
> That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???
Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party
With any luck the problem will not arise though.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> >
> > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> >
> > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> >
> > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
>
> It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
Indeed, and it will be tricky for the Tories to hold onto those Northern Leavers once Brexit has happened.
> That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
>
> On a slightly related, I'd be interested in your take on the Paternoster result. I realise you may not have had much involvement in the campaign but this was a gain from the Conservatives and a sitting Councillor defeated.
>
> Was it evident on the doorsteps the For Britain candidate was going to do so well or was it a genuine surprise?
>
> On a night when you defended so many other seats, I'm puzzled as to how this one got away.
The focus was on Buckhurst Hill West and Epping Lindsey and Thornwood which were the key marginals we narrowly held from the LDs.
Waltham Abbey took a little while to get organised and found a lot of angry Leavers and Britain First heavily targeted Paternoster and took advantage of that anger and on a low turnout of less than 30% they won the seat (though the Tories also lost Epping Hemnall to the LDs to give the LDs all 3 District seats now and Waltham Abbey SW to the Greens)
> I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
>
> 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
>
> 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
>
> It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
The same problem faces Labour
1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
test
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > test
> >
>
> > @isam said:
> > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1125845262369472513
>
> Have BP revealed their candidate for Peterborough by election yet?
It is a donkey with a BP logo on, it will be a landslide.
Atb
PtP
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> >
> > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> >
> > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> >
> > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
>
> The same problem faces Labour
>
> 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
>
> 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
> https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125837612076412929?s=20
Sheffield 1992?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125837612076412929?s=20
>
> Sheffield 1992?
From how far are these people being bussed in?
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731333307867136?s=20
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731598517796865?s=20
Seems to be going according to plan.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125837612076412929?s=20
> >
> > Sheffield 1992?
>
> From how far are these people being bussed in?
Not really, Sheffield 1992 did not come after Labour winning the general election and still not being in power as is the equivalent with the Brexit rally given we are still in the EU 3 years after Leave won the referendum
>
> Trump 101.
>
> Seems to be going according to plan.
I watched a bit of it. Ann Widdecombe said that Theresa May doesn't have the leadership skills to be a Brown Owl and got a standing ovation.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1125852804382244864
> I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
>
> 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
>
> 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
>
> It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
I doubt a softer Brexit would lose votes in Leave areas as long as it achieved Brexit.
Few people actually care about trade deals and customs treaties.
What would damage the Conservatives is attempting a softer Brexit but still failing to achieve it.
> retest
It lives!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > >
> > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > >
> > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > >
> > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> >
> > The same problem faces Labour
> >
> > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
> >
> > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
>
> Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens.
In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
I am shocked, I tell you, shocked.
The likelihood of it it being 'leaver' related in some way must be reasonably high.
I guess, just from a quick perusal of the BBC interactive map, that the Independents tended to gain in areas where Lib Dems/Greens didn't. Another clue, probably.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125730218084376576
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731333307867136
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731598517796865
>
>
>
> Meanwhile...
>
> https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1125852804382244864
This cat and mouse game between the Tories and Labour will keep going until the Brexit Party sweeps to victory in the European elections then wins the Peterborough by election.
Only when they are panicked about losing their seats will a majority of their MPs vote for a compromise deal (although even then Labour MPs from Remain seats will push for EUref2 and the ERG hardliners will stay opposed)
That said, I don't know who the Tory negotiators were but it's hard to imagine they were much better.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > >
> > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > >
> > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > >
> > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > >
> > > The same problem faces Labour
> > >
> > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
> > >
> > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
> >
> > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
>
> Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens.
>
>
> In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition.
https://twitter.com/graciemckenzie/status/1124716624093827072
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > > >
> > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > > >
> > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > > >
> > > > The same problem faces Labour
> > > >
> > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
> > > >
> > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
> > >
> > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
> >
> > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens.
> >
> >
> > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
>
> Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition.
May 1992 was just after losing the general election so does not count, in 1991 Labour gained 584 councillors.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > > > >
> > > > > The same problem faces Labour
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
> > > > >
> > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
> > > >
> > > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
> > >
> > > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens.
> > >
> > >
> > > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
> >
> > Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition.
>
> May 1992 was at the same time as the general election so does not count, in 1991 Labour gained 584 councillors.
>
>
>
The 1992 general election took place on 9th April.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> >
> > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> >
> > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> >
> > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
>
> It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
Any deal with May won’t last.
Plus if the Tories do implode at the Euros there must be a non-negligible chance of a GE, which is what Labour really want.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The same problem faces Labour
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1. Go for Brexit and agree a Deal and lose votes in the inner cities and University towns.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 2. Abandon Brexit and go for EUref2 or Revoke and lose votes in their industrial working class heartlands
> > > > >
> > > > > Labour voters are much less obsessed with Brexit - other issues easily override it.
> > > >
> > > > Are they? Labour became the first opposition in history last week to lose councillors despite being out of power for 9 years as many of its Remain voters switched to the LDs and Greens.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > In Leave voting Stoke meanwhile the Tories picked up 8 seats and in Leave voting Bolsover Labour lost seats to the Independents
> > >
> > > Not true! Labour lost hundreds of seats - mainly directly to the Tories - in the Local Elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in Opposition since 1951. More recently, Labour also lost many seats to the Tories in the May 1992 Local Elections 13 years into Opposition.
> >
> > May 1992 was at the same time as the general election so does not count, in 1991 Labour gained 584 councillors.
> >
> >
> >
>
> The 1992 general election took place on 9th April.
Yes and Labour lost it which was why they lost council seats the following month
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > >
> > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > >
> > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > >
> > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> >
> > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
>
> In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
>
> However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
>
> 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
>
> 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
>
>
At the moment there have been more votes for May's Deal in the Commons than for 2 and Deal plus CU has been closer to a Commons majority than 1 so I am not sure that follows
> Yes, well - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7001795/Brussels-bureaucrat-Juncker-says-EU-interfered-Brexit-referendum-campaign.html - if they’d listened to me they would have got involved. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125730218084376576
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731333307867136
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731598517796865
>
>
>
> Meanwhile...
>
> https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1125852804382244864
>
>
>
> Why would Labour do a deal now? Far better to wait and see the Tories come last with 5% or whatever and then see who the new Tory leader is.
>
> Any deal with May won’t last.
>
> Plus if the Tories do implode at the Euros there must be a non-negligible chance of a GE, which is what Labour really want.
If Labour force a snap general election after the Brexit Party storm to victory at the European elections the momentum could carry Farage to No 10
Although there would probably have been less faffing around afterwards.
> https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125860633898045441
They have more women on the stage than in the audience
> Yes, well - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7001795/Brussels-bureaucrat-Juncker-says-EU-interfered-Brexit-referendum-campaign.html - if they’d listened to me they would have got involved.
>
> Cameron was quite right though. The unhinged ravings of a third-rate drunk infamous for his sweetheart tax deals and his shall we say innovative use of intelligence services to harass his opponents on how a federal Europe would be not only beneficial but vital to Britain would have been the best way to ensure the result was 75-25 to leave.
>
> Although there would probably have been less faffing around afterwards.
What was really needed from Juncker and Tusk was something akin to the 'vow' Cameron and Brown promised shortly before indyref2014, that could have given Remain a narrow victory as No narrowly won in Scotland
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > >
> > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > >
> > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > >
> > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> >
> > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
>
> In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
>
> However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
>
> 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
>
> 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
>
>
Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > >
> > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > >
> > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > >
> > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > >
> > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
> >
> > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
> >
> > However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
> >
> > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
> >
> > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
> >
> >
>
> Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
But they have no brains!
And also still require another party to back it too.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > >
> > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > >
> > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > >
> > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > >
> > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
> >
> > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
> >
> > However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
> >
> > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
> >
> > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
> >
> >
>
> Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
Many of them would prefer to play their games.
The Conservative party is not fit for purpose.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > Yes, well - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7001795/Brussels-bureaucrat-Juncker-says-EU-interfered-Brexit-referendum-campaign.html - if they’d listened to me they would have got involved. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125730218084376576
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731333307867136
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125731598517796865
> >
> >
> >
> > Meanwhile...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1125852804382244864
> >
> >
> >
> > Why would Labour do a deal now? Far better to wait and see the Tories come last with 5% or whatever and then see who the new Tory leader is.
> >
> > Any deal with May won’t last.
> >
> > Plus if the Tories do implode at the Euros there must be a non-negligible chance of a GE, which is what Labour really want.
>
> If Labour force a snap general election after the Brexit Party storm to victory at the European elections the momentum could carry Farage to No 10
Great. Mind you be fun to see him try to run stuff instead of making speeches without any responsibility.
And who would he blame when everything didn't turn out perfect? Doubtless the EU, remoaners, foreigners or some other fifth columnists.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1125837612076412929?s=20
> > >
> > > Sheffield 1992?
> >
> > From how far are these people being bussed in?
> Not really, Sheffield 1992 did not come after Labour winning the general election and still not being in power as is the equivalent with the Brexit rally given we are still in the EU 3 years after Leave won the referendum
>
Apparently the ground is three quarters empty
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/our-panel-and-the-european-elections-three-in-five-will-still-vote-for-the-brexit-party.html
Good night.
See here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/18/the-eu-dog-that-hasnt-barked-yet/
> Thoughts with TSE at this miraculous time.
As a United fan I just have to say wow. What a team, what a manager.
May should put her deal up to the Commons again, after Liverpool tonight I'll believe anything can win.
"Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
https://twitter.com/forchange__now/status/1125850929675296771?s=21
> Telegraph:
>
> "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
There is no point in negotiating with a zombie government. Both Lab and the EU27 need to wait for the next leader.
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > Thoughts with TSE at this miraculous time.
>
> As a United fan I just have to say wow. What a team, what a manager.
On 2 days rest, missing key players and with robertson kicked off the pitch by suarez.... only for the sub to score 2 huge goals... surely all english fans are pleased for the scousers tonight?
> Telegraph:
>
> "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
"Pass Brexit deal, I resign the next day"
Spare a thought for Ousmane Dembele...
https://youtu.be/jRrbOxZ9lcU
> 61% of Tory Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, just 22% will vote Tory a new ConHome Tory members' poll finds
>
>
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/our-panel-and-the-european-elections-three-in-five-will-still-vote-for-the-brexit-party.html
>
> It's not a proper poll though is it?
The latest YouGov Euro elections poll has 52% of 2017 Tory voters voting Brexit Party and only 30% voting Tory so it matches the polling
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
Stunning performance and wonderful crowd . Even though I’m a long suffering Arsenal fan I was a bag of nerves and extremely happy to see Liverpool get through .
The Liverpool players were all heroes tonight , huge respect.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
> > > > >
> > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
> > > > >
> > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
> > > >
> > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
> > >
> > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
> > >
> > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
> > >
> > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
> > >
> > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
>
> But they have no brains!
>
> And also still require another party to back it too.
>
>
That's why it's a no brainer. But, Ydoethur has identified the flaw in my argument.
Klopp has done well to reach a second Champions League Final, it would be a pity if they don't win on June 1st. I hope that Livepool have a fitting end to the season that night, not many teams have recovered from a 0-3 drubbing in Barcelona.