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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    BF reckons more chance of Farage being next PM than Javid.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    > > 61% of Tory Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, just 22% will vote Tory a new ConHome Tory members' poll finds
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/our-panel-and-the-european-elections-three-in-five-will-still-vote-for-the-brexit-party.html
    > >
    > > It's not a proper poll though is it?
    >
    > The latest YouGov Euro elections poll has 52% of 2017 Tory voters voting Brexit Party and only 30% voting Tory so it matches the polling
    >
    >
    > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf

    That poll also has Brexit doing best in Rest of South area. Which would be a turn up, and probably still wouldn't stop people blaming Northerners.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067
    > @rottenborough said:
    > BF reckons more chance of Farage being next PM than Javid.

    Betfair needs to calm down. He has to be elected as an MP first!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Football 😀
    Politics 😭
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > > Thoughts with TSE at this miraculous time.
    > >
    > > As a United fan I just have to say wow. What a team, what a manager.
    >
    > On 2 days rest, missing key players and with robertson kicked off the pitch by suarez.... only for the sub to score 2 huge goals... surely all english fans are pleased for the scousers tonight?

    I think most Scottish fans also have a soft spot for Liverpool.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    kle4 said:

    > @rottenborough said:

    > Telegraph:

    >

    > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."



    "Pass Brexit deal, I resign the next day"

    Yes it's carrot and stick.

    Carrot - Pass the WA and I go.

    Stick - Don't pass it, then I don't and I won't and I never will.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
    > > > >
    > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
    > > > >
    > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
    > > > >
    > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
    > > >
    > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
    > >
    > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
    > >
    > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
    > >
    > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
    > >
    > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.

    There are (fundamentally) two problems:

    1 A subset of people (including some otherwise smart people on here) think that the Withdrawal Agreement is a plot designed to extract Northern Ireland from the UK.

    2. Some think that any deal with the EU is (by definition) a bad deal. If it's with the EU, we have to be being screwed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @Benpointer said:
    > > > 61% of Tory Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, just 22% will vote Tory a new ConHome Tory members' poll finds
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/our-panel-and-the-european-elections-three-in-five-will-still-vote-for-the-brexit-party.html
    > > >
    > > > It's not a proper poll though is it?
    > >
    > > The latest YouGov Euro elections poll has 52% of 2017 Tory voters voting Brexit Party and only 30% voting Tory so it matches the polling
    > >
    > >
    > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
    >
    > That poll also has Brexit doing best in Rest of South area. Which would be a turn up, and probably still wouldn't stop people blaming Northerners.

    Rest of South did still vote Leave but the Brexit Party is on 32% in the Midlands and Wales and 31% in the North, not far behind the 37% it is on in the South.

    Even in London the Brexit Party gets to 23%, with Labour on 27%.


    The Tories meanwhile get a higher voteshare in the Midlands, 17%, than the 13% they get in the South which would reflect the local election results. Indeed the Tories get a higher share in London and Scotland than the South on 14% in both
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > The Middle East is looking tense right now. Potential pre-emptive US strikes on Iranian missile sites. Could easily change Brexit debate and news priorities.

    Oh goody.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    > @Benpointer said:
    > Telegraph:
    >
    > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
    >
    >
    >
    > "Forced on her"... how exactly?

    Changed '22 rules.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    > @rcs1000 said:
    >
    > There are (fundamentally) two problems:
    >
    > 1 A subset of people (including some otherwise smart people on here) think that the Withdrawal Agreement is a plot designed to extract Northern Ireland from the UK.
    >
    > 2. Some think that any deal with the EU is (by definition) a bad deal. If it's with the EU, we have to be being screwed.

    It's not that the WA is a plot to extract Northern Ireland from the UK, but that it crystallises the reality that divergence from the single market and customs union on a UK-wide basis is not feasible, and people don't want to deal with reality.
  • John_McLeanJohn_McLean Posts: 71
    > @AndyJS said:
    > O/T
    >
    > A general election in Denmark has been called for 5th June.
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Danish_general_election

    Will Mrs S. Kinnock be standing?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > > > I don't think this is very complicated. The Conservatives have two choices:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > 1. Go for a Harder Brexit, and lose votes in the South East and the rest of Remainia.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > 2. Go for a Softer Brexit, and lose votes in Leaverstan.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > It really isn't rocket science to understand this. And anyone peddling a "this is all the Conservatives have to do" is an idiot. Because if it really was that simple they'd be doing it.
    > > > >
    > > > > It's even more intractable than that, because if they go for a Harder Brexit, they still lose votes in Leaverstan when the reality hits, and if they go for a Softer Brexit, they still lose votes in Remainia because a softer Brexit is still Brexit.
    > > >
    > > > In the real world, if Mrs May's deal passed then Leavers would be largely happy because FoM came to an end, while most Remainers would be happy the economic sky did not fall in.
    > > >
    > > > However, instead of that, we're going to either have:
    > > >
    > > > 1. We Remain, which will leave a solid quarter to a third of the population livid that their vote meant nothing. It will be poison for British democracy.
    > > >
    > > > 2. We Crash Out, which will mean a serious economic dislocation, and those who lose their jobs or their houses will feel that they were lied to by the political classes. It will be poison for British democracy.
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Passing the WA ought to be a no-brainer for Conservative MP's.
    >
    > There are (fundamentally) two problems:
    >
    > 1 A subset of people (including some otherwise smart people on here) think that the Withdrawal Agreement is a plot designed to extract Northern Ireland from the UK.
    >
    > 2. Some think that any deal with the EU is (by definition) a bad deal. If it's with the EU, we have to be being screwed.

    It's the our negotiators are a bunch of idiots argument.

    I've seen people argue that the WA (now it includes all of the UK not just NI) is actually worse for the EU than it is for us but I've never had time to work out whether the UK could abuse it the way others claim it could be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited May 2019

    > @Benpointer said:

    > Telegraph:

    >

    > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."

    >

    >

    >

    > "Forced on her"... how exactly?



    Changed '22 rules.....

    IIRC the leadership rules are set out in the Coservative party constitution
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @HYUFD said:
    > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party

    I assume he will be deselected forthwith. :smiley: :p
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @HYUFD said:
    > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party

    Losing both wings now. And revived the corpses of Nigel and the LD's. Top work Tessie!
    Oh. And this is why closed lists suck.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Fckn hell, just to screw with everyone's heads.

    https://twitter.com/muchair/status/1125872052018266112
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,771
    > @Benpointer said:
    > Telegraph:
    >
    > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
    >
    >
    >
    > "Forced on her"... how exactly?

    The irresistible force of piss and wind. Obviously.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162

    I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party
    >
    > Losing both wings now. And revived the corpses of Nigel and the LD's. Top work Tessie!
    > Oh. And this is why closed lists suck.

    It would be hilarious if the Conservatives avenged their 2014 loss to UKIP, only to come sixth behind the Lib Dems, Brexit Party, Labour, CUK and the Greens.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party
    > >
    > > Losing both wings now. And revived the corpses of Nigel and the LD's. Top work Tessie!
    > > Oh. And this is why closed lists suck.
    >
    > It would be hilarious if the Conservatives avenged their 2014 loss to UKIP, only to come sixth behind the Lib Dems, Brexit Party, Labour, CUK and the Greens.

    That is not impossible (though they should still beat CUK and the Greens and LDs), it is also not impossible Labour could fall behind the Brexit Party and the LDs
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    >
    > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well and get 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).

    I reckon a little better than that, but not much more.

    The story of UKIP was always fervent support with a low ceiling.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    RobD said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party



    I assume he will be deselected forthwith. :smiley::p

    Apparently Tory MEPs aren’t voting for themselves along with lots of other Tories so he will have to be added to a very long list of people being deselected.

    At which point the Tory Party will consist of about 5 members and the Cyclefree clan (there are lots and lots of us) can take it over and turn it into something sensible. :)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067
    Incidentally, any chance of a PB prediction contest for the Euros?

    Heseltine great on Newsnight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @RobD said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party
    >
    > I assume he will be deselected forthwith. :smiley: :p

    I don't think you can deselect a Lord, though he can lose the whip
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party
    >
    > Losing both wings now. And revived the corpses of Nigel and the LD's. Top work Tessie!
    > Oh. And this is why closed lists suck.

    I agree, open lists at list offer a choice on individual candidates
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.

    Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.

    A second referendum wouldn't have passed but attempting it would have ensured May's immediate removal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > Lord Heseltine on Newsnight says he will not support a Brexit Conservative, he would consider Remainers on the list but as it is a closed list he might vote for another Remainer party
    >
    >
    >
    > I assume he will be deselected forthwith. :smiley: :p
    >
    > Apparently Tory MEPs aren’t voting for themselves along with lots of other Tories so he will have to be added to a very long list of people being deselected.
    >
    > At which point the Tory Party will consist of about 5 members and the Cyclefree clan (there are lots and lots of us) can take it over and turn it into something sensible. :)

    Well at least you can guarantee a table at the Carlton Club.


    If the Brexit Party did overtake the Tories, the Tories would stay as an independent party for a decade or so before the Brexit Party took it over as with the wets joining the Liberals as happened in Canada after the Tories were trounced in 1993 and overtaken by Reform
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Fckn hell, just to screw with everyone's heads.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/muchair/status/1125872052018266112

    For those wondering what to get Jeremy for his 70th birthday present.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    >
    > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).

    You think the Brexit Party will take as many from Labour as from the Tories?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    HYUFD said:

    > @edmundintokyo said:

    > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.



    Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum

    In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.

    But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067
    > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    >
    > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    >
    >
    >
    > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
    >
    > In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.
    >
    > But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.

    I see both the Europa League and Champions League Final are the week after the Euro elections, while Eurovision is the Saturday before. Neither have anything to do with the EU, but do have some influence on the zeitgeist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    > >
    > > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).
    >
    > You think the Brexit Party will take as many from Labour as from the Tories?

    YouGov has 11% of 2017 Labour voters voting Brexit Party in the European elections, less than the 15% who will vote Green but more than the 10% who will vote LD or CUK

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    >
    > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    >
    >
    >
    > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
    >
    > In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.
    >
    > But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.
    The footie has now finished I believe, good game though it was
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    > > >
    > > > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).
    > >
    > > You think the Brexit Party will take as many from Labour as from the Tories?
    >
    > YouGov has 11% of 2017 Labour voters voting Brexit Party in the European elections, less than the 15% who will vote Green but more than the 10% who will vote LD or CUK
    >
    > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf

    Indeed. And how many 2017 Con voters to vote Brexit?
    My prediction FWIW, and 2 weeks out is BP 27% Lab 22% Tories 15% Remainers United 26% (no idea how that will divide, but expect LD, Green, CUK to be the order) UKIP 5% and Nats 5%.
    Mind you, I thought the Tories would only lose 500, so what do I know?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum

    Sure, that's why I said Farage would be raging into a void, not that he'd have accepted the outcome chearfully and retired to the countryside. But most of the Tory vote would have gone back to being Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    > > > >
    > > > > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).
    > > >
    > > > You think the Brexit Party will take as many from Labour as from the Tories?
    > >
    > > YouGov has 11% of 2017 Labour voters voting Brexit Party in the European elections, less than the 15% who will vote Green but more than the 10% who will vote LD or CUK
    > >
    > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
    >
    > Indeed. And how many 2017 Con voters to vote Brexit?
    > My prediction FWIW, and 2 weeks out is BP 27% Lab 22% Tories 15% Remainers United 26% (no idea how that will divide, but expect LD, Green, CUK to be the order) UKIP 5% and Nats 5%.
    > Mind you, I thought the Tories would only lose 500, so what do I know?

    52% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party in the European elections according to YouGov, so yes Labour is not yet facing the apocalyptic scenario of over half its voters switching directly to another party at a national election as the Tories are but still while a plurality of 2017 Labour voters will vote Labour in the European elections 52% will vote for another party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > >
    > > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
    > >
    > > In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.
    > >
    > > But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.
    > The footie has now finished I believe, good game though it was
    >

    Btw Mr HYUFD, will you be voting and campaigning for the Tories this time? Am genuinely interested how many PB Tories will be. Doesn't seem many voting at the moment, and even fewer campaigning.
    One of my oldest friends and his spouse, both ex-councillors are out on the stump for the LDs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    > > > > >
    > > > > > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).
    > > > >
    > > > > You think the Brexit Party will take as many from Labour as from the Tories?
    > > >
    > > > YouGov has 11% of 2017 Labour voters voting Brexit Party in the European elections, less than the 15% who will vote Green but more than the 10% who will vote LD or CUK
    > > >
    > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
    > >
    > > Indeed. And how many 2017 Con voters to vote Brexit?
    > > My prediction FWIW, and 2 weeks out is BP 27% Lab 22% Tories 15% Remainers United 26% (no idea how that will divide, but expect LD, Green, CUK to be the order) UKIP 5% and Nats 5%.
    > > Mind you, I thought the Tories would only lose 500, so what do I know?
    >
    > 52% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party in the European elections according to YouGov, so yes Labour is not yet facing the apocalyptic scenario of over half its voters switching directly to another party at a national election as the Tories are but still while a plurality of 2017 Labour voters will vote Labour in the European elections 52% will vote for another party

    52% seems to be a running theme. As if the Universe was telling us summat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > >
    > > > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
    > > >
    > > > In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.
    > > >
    > > > But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.
    > > The footie has now finished I believe, good game though it was
    > >
    >
    > Btw Mr HYUFD, will you be voting and campaigning for the Tories this time? Am genuinely interested how many PB Tories will be. Doesn't seem many voting at the moment, and even fewer campaigning.
    > One of my oldest friends and his spouse, both ex-councillors are out on the stump for the LDs.

    I will be voting for the Tories yes, campaigning no, pointless around here given it is strongly Leave though I might do a bit in Enfield where I have some connections and it is a bit more Remain but still with a reasonable Tory presence
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1125873877488476162
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > I think the Brexit Party will slightly underperform expectations. They won't get more than about 22% IMO. LDs should do well with 15-16%, Con and Lab will pretty much tie again (as they did at the locals).
    > > > > >
    > > > > > You think the Brexit Party will take as many from Labour as from the Tories?
    > > > >
    > > > > YouGov has 11% of 2017 Labour voters voting Brexit Party in the European elections, less than the 15% who will vote Green but more than the 10% who will vote LD or CUK
    > > > >
    > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b70ce1trk/TheTimes_190430_EuropeVI_Trackers_w.pdf
    > > >
    > > > Indeed. And how many 2017 Con voters to vote Brexit?
    > > > My prediction FWIW, and 2 weeks out is BP 27% Lab 22% Tories 15% Remainers United 26% (no idea how that will divide, but expect LD, Green, CUK to be the order) UKIP 5% and Nats 5%.
    > > > Mind you, I thought the Tories would only lose 500, so what do I know?
    > >
    > > 52% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party in the European elections according to YouGov, so yes Labour is not yet facing the apocalyptic scenario of over half its voters switching directly to another party at a national election as the Tories are but still while a plurality of 2017 Labour voters will vote Labour in the European elections 52% will vote for another party
    >
    > 52% seems to be a running theme. As if the Universe was telling us summat.

    It is possible we could be seeing a realignment, globally the shift seems to be away from socialism v capitalism to liberalism v nationalism but depends whether the main parties adjust to reflect that or get replaced by parties that will
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.

    Probably true. She simply could not conceive that, push come to shove, she could not get the deal over the line and was do afraid until too late to tell one or the other side that what they wanted was never going to happen.

    Now she's so desperate Labour are toying with her, their talk of a lack of compromise and lack of trust pretty clear indications they are just stalling for time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > > > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
    > > > >
    > > > > In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.
    > > > >
    > > > > But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.
    > > > The footie has now finished I believe, good game though it was
    > > >
    > >
    > > Btw Mr HYUFD, will you be voting and campaigning for the Tories this time? Am genuinely interested how many PB Tories will be. Doesn't seem many voting at the moment, and even fewer campaigning.
    > > One of my oldest friends and his spouse, both ex-councillors are out on the stump for the LDs.
    >
    > I will be voting for the Tories yes, campaigning no, pointless around here given it is strongly Leave though I might do a bit in Enfield where I have some connections and it is a bit more Remain but still with a reasonable Tory presence

    Good man. We rarely agree, but stick up for what you believe in. Chapeau to you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    >
    > > Telegraph:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > "Theresa May has been given until teatime on Wednesday to come up with a "roadmap" to her resignation as leader of the Tory party - or she will have one forced upon her."
    >
    >
    >
    > "Pass Brexit deal, I resign the next day"
    >
    > Yes it's carrot and stick.
    >
    > Carrot - Pass the WA and I go.
    >
    > Stick - Don't pass it, then I don't and I won't and I never will.

    That was the plan, but with the locals even worse than expected and a walloping coming the the Euros, then unless she actually has a plan her massed opponents will eventually have the courage to do what they have to to get her to go. And hoping Labour save her to no political benefit to themselves (and if people disagree that there would be no such benefit, unfortunately the majority of Labour MPs would likely disagree) is not a plan.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    >
    > A second referendum wouldn't have passed but attempting it would have ensured May's immediate removal.

    Plainly. It's not a runner.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @williamglenn said:
    people don't want to deal with reality.


    I certainly do not right now. Even the football cannot prevent the shambles of Brexit and government from depressing me, which is just plain sad.

    Good night all.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    >
    > Probably true. She simply could not conceive that, push come to shove, she could not get the deal over the line and was do afraid until too late to tell one or the other side that what they wanted was never going to happen.
    >
    > Now she's so desperate Labour are toying with her, their talk of a lack of compromise and lack of trust pretty clear indications they are just stalling for time.

    Or just possibly "pretty clear indications" that Theresa May's idea of compromise and negotiation is to endlessly repeat the same line. That is, after all, the story of the past couple of years.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    > @Streeter said:

    > > @Streeter said:

    >

    > > > @algarkirk said:

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates

    >

    > >

    >

    > > How do you know?

    >

    > The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate

    >

    > That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???



    Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party

    How do you know?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    > @eek said:
    > I've seen people argue that the WA (now it includes all of the UK not just NI) is actually worse for the EU than it is for us but I've never had time to work out whether the UK could abuse it the way others claim it could be.

    It's really much simpler than that. The backstop is fundamentally uncomfortable to the EU.

    It's granted the UK full access to the single market in goods, with zero tariffs and zero regulatory barriers, without any of that annoying Freedom of Movement or Fees. (Yes, William, it also comes with a Customs Union. Nevertheless, under the backstop, under any possible reading of the actual words, the UK essentially remains a member of the Single Market for Goods.)

    They therefore have every incentive to get us to a settled future state as soon as possible. And if there's someone without an incentive to get to the final state, it's us.

    This is why the EU insisted in the wording on arbitration that if we appear to be not negotiating a free trade agreement in good faith that they can eject us from the backstop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @Streeter said:
    > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > @algarkirk said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > How do you know?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate
    >
    > >
    >
    > > That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???
    >
    >
    >
    > Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party
    >
    > How do you know?

    Do you have anything else to say bar autorepeating yourself?

    As has already been pointed in Leave areas from Telford to Braintree to Bolsover Independents polled well last week even if turnout was down
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > > > > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Deal plus referendum would not have satisfied the hardliners and they would not have accepted a Remain vote even if it had won a referendum
    > > > > >
    > > > > > In fairness, the hardliners would not accept anything vaguely sensible, so we can comfortably ignore them as the arch pricks they are.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > But, who cares? Brexit is yesterday’s story. Anyone with half a brain is just watching the footie.
    > > > > The footie has now finished I believe, good game though it was
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Btw Mr HYUFD, will you be voting and campaigning for the Tories this time? Am genuinely interested how many PB Tories will be. Doesn't seem many voting at the moment, and even fewer campaigning.
    > > > One of my oldest friends and his spouse, both ex-councillors are out on the stump for the LDs.
    > >
    > > I will be voting for the Tories yes, campaigning no, pointless around here given it is strongly Leave though I might do a bit in Enfield where I have some connections and it is a bit more Remain but still with a reasonable Tory presence
    >
    > Good man. We rarely agree, but stick up for what you believe in. Chapeau to you.

    Thank you and good night
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    > @kle4 said:

    > > @edmundintokyo said:

    > > If TMay had whipped for Deal+referendum when she lost the first MV she'd have her Brexit by now. Either that or the whole thing would have been defeated and Farage would be raging into a void.

    >

    > Probably true. She simply could not conceive that, push come to shove, she could not get the deal over the line and was do afraid until too late to tell one or the other side that what they wanted was never going to happen.

    >

    > Now she's so desperate Labour are toying with her, their talk of a lack of compromise and lack of trust pretty clear indications they are just stalling for time.



    Or just possibly "pretty clear indications" that Theresa May's idea of compromise and negotiation is to endlessly repeat the same line. That is, after all, the story of the past couple of years.

    I didn't mean to suggest there was not truth to labours claims. You're right that is how may operates . The toying is that they havent ended the talks despite saying such things, whatever the truth of such talk.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > A second referendum wouldn't have passed but attempting it would have ensured May's immediate removal.
    >
    > Plainly. It's not a runner.

    By what mechanism would TMay have been removed, and why isn't that mechanism working now as she tries to water down brexit enough to satisfy Jeremy Corbyn, destroys her local government base and still has no plausible strategy for getting it done?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    edited May 2019
    HYUFD said:

    > @Streeter said:

    > > @Streeter said:

    >

    > > > @Streeter said:

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > > @algarkirk said:

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > >

    >

    > >

    >


    > > > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.


    > > > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.

    >

    > >

    > > > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates


    >

    > > > How do you know?

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate

    >

    > >

    >

    > > That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???

    >

    > Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party

    >

    > How do you know?



    Do you have anything else to say bar autorepeating yourself?



    As has already been pointed in Leave areas from Telford to Braintree to Bolsover Independents polled well last week even if turnout was down

    But you are merely asserting the votes for independents were from Tory Leavers. Where is the evidence for that? You have provided none, as is your wont.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    As someone who spotted the LibDem surge early on, I'd take a middle view - they certainly got some Remainers from the other parties, but mainly they got "the main parties are rubbish, let's try the LibDems again" vote. I talked to over 1000 voters, and only 3 said they were voting LibDem over Brexit, though obviously not everyone will have said why. To be fair, too, the LibDem activists have never given up their cheery we-can-do-it approach, and in grim times that has a definite appeal. Where Labour did well it was also often where we'd done poorly before, so we had a freshness that we lack in northern fortresses.

    Also it's fair to note that Labour only dropped marginally - the story was shaped by the northern losses on the Thursday, and the southern gains on the Friday came too late to change the narrative. Obviously it's not great that we didn't progress nationally with the Government in such a mess, but the Labour vote isn't melting down as the Tory vote is.

    Incidentally, the scale of government cuts to local councils is truly terrifying - we were warned today that £3.8 million is likely to be taken away in the next 4 years out of a total budget of £10.6 million - and that's after years of previous cuts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @Streeter said:
    > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > > @algarkirk said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    > > > > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
    >
    >
    > > > > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > How do you know?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party
    >
    > >
    >
    > > How do you know?
    >
    >
    >
    > Do you have anything else to say bar autorepeating yourself?
    >
    >
    >
    > As has already been pointed in Leave areas from Telford to Braintree to Bolsover Independents polled well last week even if turnout was down
    >
    > But you are merely asserting the votes for independents were from Tory Leavers. Where is the evidence for that? You have provided none, as is your wont.

    I said they were from Leavers not just Tory Leavers e.g. in Bolsover which went 70% Leave in 2016 Independents gained 16 seats last week as Labour lost overall control of the council
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    As someone who spotted the LibDem surge early on, I'd take a middle view - they certainly got some Remainers from the other parties, but mainly they got "the main parties are rubbish, let's try the LibDems again" vote. I talked to over 1000 voters, and only 3 said they were voting LibDem over Brexit, though obviously not everyone will have said why. To be fair, too, the LibDem activists have never given up their cheery we-can-do-it approach, and in grim times that has a definite appeal. Where Labour did well it was also often where we'd done poorly before, so we had a freshness that we lack in northern fortresses.



    Also it's fair to note that Labour only dropped marginally - the story was shaped by the northern losses on the Thursday, and the southern gains on the Friday came too late to change the narrative. Obviously it's not great that we didn't progress nationally with the Government in such a mess, but the Labour vote isn't melting down as the Tory vote is.



    Incidentally, the scale of government cuts to local councils is truly terrifying - we were warned today that £3.8 million is likely to be taken away in the next 4 years out of a total budget of £10.6 million - and that's after years of previous cuts.

    There was a lot of waste to cut, but it's gone on so long and so much there are plenty of places really struggling.

    Good luck!
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    > @Streeter said:

    > > @Streeter said:

    >

    > > > @Streeter said:

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > > @Streeter said:

    > > > > > @algarkirk said:

    > > > > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.

    > > > > > I think wait and see is the only option. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.

    >

    >

    UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.

    >

    > > > > a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > > > How do you know?

    >

    > > > The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate

    >

    > > > That’s one independent candidate. You’re generalising from that???

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Not generalising at all, most Leavers stayed at home, if they did not vote for the Tories or Labour the Independents was where many headed. More of them will be out in the European elections though to vote Brexit Party

    >

    > >

    >

    > > How do you know?

    >

    >

    >

    > Do you have anything else to say bar autorepeating yourself?

    >

    >

    >

    > As has already been pointed in Leave areas from Telford to Braintree to Bolsover Independents polled well last week even if turnout was down

    >

    > But you are merely asserting the votes for independents were from Tory Leavers. Where is the evidence for that? You have provided none, as is your wont.



    I said they were from Leavers not just Tory Leavers e.g. in Bolsover which went 70% Leave in 2016 Independents gained 16 seats last week as Labour lost overall control of the council

    And Guildford, which was 56% Remain, elected 15 Independents. So not all Leavers, eh?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    great news

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Well done Canada
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    ...
This discussion has been closed.