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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Out of excuses. Jeremy Corbyn, serial loser

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Out of excuses. Jeremy Corbyn, serial loser

Quick response to what happened in local elections.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,440
    The obvious conclusion from Labour and Conservative behaviour is that local politics is of no interest to national politicians. You can reach the same conclusion from the opposite direction by observing that IDS was forced out despite doing better than expected in local and European polls.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,345
    TBH despite being interested in Corbyn I didn't vote in anything but the referendum and general election since his leadership, the civil war prior to 2017 probably didn't encourage me there but I'd never really paid much attention TBH, I am now but it could be reflective. Do local elections usually have an older electorate turnout than GE's?

    Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...

    The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,709
    edited May 8
    O/T

    The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) has endorsed the Brexit Party for the Euro elections.

    https://www.cpgb-ml.org/2019/05/07/news/galloway-farage-brexit-party-eu-election/

    Quote:
    "Along with George Galloway, the CPGB-ML considers that a one-time-only vote for the Brexit party in the upcoming European elections is the best way for workers to repeat their demand that Brexit actually be delivered."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589
    Good morning PB, from one very happy Liverpool fan who decided to go to bed early rather than think his team might put four past Barcelona.

    Good piece as usual Alastair, there must now be a reasonable chance of both main parties replacing their leaders over the summer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    But, as for the Tories, the problem is mostly Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @TheJezziah said:
    > TBH despite being interested in Corbyn I didn't vote in anything but the referendum and general election since his leadership, the civil war prior to 2017 probably didn't encourage me there but I'd never really paid much attention TBH, I am now but it could be reflective. Do local elections usually have an older electorate turnout than GE's?
    >
    > Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...
    >
    > The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.

    In all the analysis I did on local election turnout during my time in local politics, the most striking correlation was with the length of time someone had been on the register at their current address. Perhaps unsurprisingly, people with many settled years in their locality were much more likely to vote than someone who had moved in only recently.

    Given the tendency of younger people to move around, particularly in the south where almost all of them are tenants, this does correlate with local election voters tending to be older. On top of which about 75% of postal votes are returned for a local election, and these tend towards older population segments also. On the face of it this ought to give the Tories an advantage in local elections, but it is also an observed phenomena that people are more willing to vote centre or left locally, for better services in their area, and right nationally for lower taxes. Given the pattern of local election results nationwide isn’t hugely different from the parliamentary one (such that it doesn’t make a huge difference when both elections are held together, except that the slight bias towards the left in local elections becomes more observable) this suggests these two factors pretty much cancel out.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,345
    IanB2 said:

    > @TheJezziah said:

    > TBH despite being interested in Corbyn I didn't vote in anything but the referendum and general election since his leadership, the civil war prior to 2017 probably didn't encourage me there but I'd never really paid much attention TBH, I am now but it could be reflective. Do local elections usually have an older electorate turnout than GE's?

    >

    > Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...

    >

    > The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.



    In all the analysis I did on local election turnout during my time in local politics, the most striking correlation was with the length of time someone had been on the register at their current address. Perhaps unsurprisingly, people with many settled years in their locality were much more likely to vote than someone who had moved in only recently.



    Given the tendency of younger people to move around, particularly in the south where almost all of them are tenants, this does correlate with local election voters tending to be older. On top of which about 75% of postal votes are returned for a local election, and these tend towards older population segments also. On the face of it this ought to give the Tories an advantage in local elections, but it is also an observed phenomena that people are more willing to vote centre or left locally, for better services in their area, and right nationally for lower taxes. Given the pattern of local election results nationwide isn’t hugely different from the parliamentary one (such that it doesn’t make a huge difference when both elections are held together, except that the slight bias towards the left in local elections becomes more observable) this suggests these two factors pretty much cancel out.

    Interesting thanks, I do wonder if Labours greater skew towards younger voters recently and against older voters has meant this isn't as balanced as previously. Although I suppose only the one GE to go off for a comparison means you can get any pattern.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    edited May 8
    ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?

    Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @TheJezziah said:
    > > @TheJezziah said:
    >
    > > TBH despite being interested in Corbyn I didn't vote in anything but the referendum and general election since his leadership, the civil war prior to 2017 probably didn't encourage me there but I'd never really paid much attention TBH, I am now but it could be reflective. Do local elections usually have an older electorate turnout than GE's?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.
    >
    >
    >
    > In all the analysis I did on local election turnout during my time in local politics, the most striking correlation was with the length of time someone had been on the register at their current address. Perhaps unsurprisingly, people with many settled years in their locality were much more likely to vote than someone who had moved in only recently.
    >
    >
    >
    > Given the tendency of younger people to move around, particularly in the south where almost all of them are tenants, this does correlate with local election voters tending to be older. On top of which about 75% of postal votes are returned for a local election, and these tend towards older population segments also. On the face of it this ought to give the Tories an advantage in local elections, but it is also an observed phenomena that people are more willing to vote centre or left locally, for better services in their area, and right nationally for lower taxes. Given the pattern of local election results nationwide isn’t hugely different from the parliamentary one (such that it doesn’t make a huge difference when both elections are held together, except that the slight bias towards the left in local elections becomes more observable) this suggests these two factors pretty much cancel out.
    >
    > Interesting thanks, I do wonder if Labours greater skew towards younger voters recently and against older voters has meant this isn't as balanced as previously. Although I suppose only the one GE to go off for a comparison means you can get any pattern.

    ... as you can see, I was just thinking the same!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited May 8
    A good header. For the first time in three years I might also be in step with the zeitgeist. For much of that time the UK has felt like a very alien place. Like zombies in a George Romero film wild eyed malevolents in human form seemed to be taking over.

    But then came the locals and to our amazement there were still real humans around and in greater numbers than we could have imagined and they were stating to organise ....

    I was away for the locals and didn't bother with a postal vote because there didn't seem much point. But this time I will. The fight for the heart of the country has started and neither Corbyn's Labour nor the Tories deserve to play any part in it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    For the Euros, Remember: a Tory vote or a Labour vote is a Wasted Vote!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.

    At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Good morning, everyone.

    Odd to have both Government and Opposition be so bloody dire.

    Mr. Sandpit, did you stop watching the 2005 Champions League final halfway through? :p


  • Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,

    https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/

    The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.

    Would be interested to hear views on this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,341
    > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    >
    > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    >
    > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    >
    > Would be interested to hear views on this.

    That's right.

    However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    DavidL said:

    Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
    At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.

    It is worth remembering Corbyn, for all the rise in voteshare to just under 40%, had a general election result that was closely comparable to that of Gordon Brown in 2010.

    TBQH, as far as your second paragraph goes I would have said given he's a very large obstacle in Labour's path to government an imminent election would be the best imaginable reason for him to resign quickly. But he doesn't seem to care about Labour winning power, and nutters like Bastani won't see reality even when it's in front of their faces.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,443
    > @TheJezziah said:
    > The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.

    So very different before Saint Tony won in 1997.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    edited May 8
    > @DavidL said:
    > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
    >
    > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.

    Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!
    Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.

    That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540

    Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.

    Would be interested to hear views on this.

    That contradicts the thread header, which says turnout wasn't lower. Was there anything different about Chelmsford, or has Alistair got it wrong?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,969

    Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,



    https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/



    The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.



    Would be interested to hear views on this.

    The premise of the article is garbage. The LD vote remained the same in absolute terms between 2015 and 2019, but 2015 was of course a GE. The author assumes that had it not been for Brexit, turnout from Con supporters would have been at 2015 levels which is for the birds.

    The LDs matching their GE numbers in a non-GE year where turnout is down by half certainly counts as an increase in support.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589

    Good morning, everyone.

    Odd to have both Government and Opposition be so bloody dire.

    Mr. Sandpit, did you stop watching the 2005 Champions League final halfway through? :p

    Ha, no I definitely watched that one all the way through.

    I recall that Radio 5 Live gave their ‘fan of the year’ award that year to one fan who went to Instanbul, but left the ground at half time to beat the queues at the airport.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,969

    Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,



    https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/



    The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.



    Would be interested to hear views on this.

    The premise of the article is garbage. The LD vote remained the same in absolute terms between 2015 and 2019, but 2015 was of course a GE. The author assumes that had it not been for Brexit, turnout from Con supporters would have been at 2015 levels which is for the birds.

    The LDs matching their GE numbers in a non-GE year where turnout is down by half certainly counts as an increase in support.

    What is far more likely - but uncomfortable for the author - is that some Con supporters stayed home and others switched to the LDs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    edited May 8
    One question the Corbynites need to answer is: to what extent the votes for him in GE2017 were down to those trying to frustrate Brexit, and before the bulk of the populace had worked out what he’s like?

    Can that be repeated as a starting point? Or has the baseline already dropped?

    What Corbyn does have in his favour is that he does talk about domestic issues that matter to people in GE campaigns, whereas the Tories can’t seem to resist handing out hairy shirts and spraying shit over the electorate. So the competence of the Conservative campaign will be just as important.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @ydoethur said:
    > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    >
    > Would be interested to hear views on this.
    >
    > That contradicts the thread header, which says turnout wasn't lower. Was there anything different about Chelmsford, or has Alistair got it wrong?

    Interesting thought. I'm old enough to remember elections in the mid to late 60's when the then Liberals were making a comeback. They did well in local elections, not so well in the GE, and I remember saying to a Liberal friend that it looked as if 'his lot' were motivated to vote in elections, whereas 'the rest' we're not. Or not so motivated. However, when it came to a GE the actual Lib vote stayed steady, while that of the other two parties increased.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500

    > @DavidL said:

    > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.

    >

    > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.



    Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!

    Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.



    That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.

    I see no signs that Corbyn is considering standing down.

    This is wishful thinking.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Sandpit, he deserved it.

    Fancy flying that far, paying that much, and then doing that.

    Speaking of sport, the F1 markets are up for Spain, where overtaking is tricky (which proved handy in 2016). My thinking is that Perez might do well, Verstappen might as well (although qualifying could hamper him). Sainz tends to be good at street circuits, if fuzzy memory is correct.

    Oh, and Ferrari are bringing some upgrades. Engine stuff.

    Anyway, nothing stands out from the early markets. Mildly tempted by Verstappen each way to win, but suspect the odds will lengthen. Perez at 751 each way for a few pence might be worth a look, if there's a pileup at the start I think he may be in good shape to capitalise.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 318
    Ed Miliband would be 15 points ahead if he was still running Labour. Man those seem like halycon days of competence and electability compared to what we have on offer now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    The Corbynista core vote in the UK is no more than 30%, maybe even less than that.

    The reason Corbyn got to 40% in 2017 was as so many Remainers voted Labour to try and stop a hard Brexit. Now Corbyn is still refusing to commit to reverse Brexit or even hold EUref2 many of those Remainers are turning to the LDs or Greens instead as the local elections showed and the European elections confirmed. While in a few Leave areas like Stoke the Tories are still even making gains building on gains they made at the last general election
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,414

    Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,



    https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/



    The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.



    Would be interested to hear views on this.

    The premise of the article is garbage. The LD vote remained the same in absolute terms between 2015 and 2019, but 2015 was of course a GE. The author assumes that had it not been for Brexit, turnout from Con supporters would have been at 2015 levels which is for the birds.

    The LDs matching their GE numbers in a non-GE year where turnout is down by half certainly counts as an increase in support.
    Although it may just be existing supporters are more fired up.

    It dies undermine the simplistic narrative of Remainers fleeing Lab/Tory and voting LD/Green.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    >
    > > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
    >
    >
    >
    > Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!
    >
    > Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.
    >
    >
    >
    > That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.
    >
    > I see no signs that Corbyn is considering standing down.
    >
    > This is wishful thinking.

    There were some hints from inside Labour a while back that he might be thinking of doing so. My guess is that he wants to see off May first, and have some certainty around the succession. If May is despatched, things could move quickly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    So this is what Pompeo's globe trotting was about:

    Iran nuclear deal: Tehran may increase uranium enrichment
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48197628
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > The obvious conclusion from Labour and Conservative behaviour is that local politics is of no interest to national politicians. You can reach the same conclusion from the opposite direction by observing that IDS was forced out despite doing better than expected in local and European polls.

    It shows a trend though, loss of councillors and activists by the Tories pre 1997 and Labour pre 2010 set the course for MPs losing their seats in those general elections
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    But also some good news:

    Asia Bibi: Christian leaves Pakistan after blasphemy acquittal
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48198340
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    edited May 8
    > @IanB2 said:
    > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
    >
    > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!

    On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum compared to 80% of under 35s with a degree
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    > >
    > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    > >
    > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    > >
    > > Would be interested to hear views on this.
    >
    > That's right.
    >
    > However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher


    I would expect that a detailed analysis of the voting records would put some holes in that theory. The idea that one party’s GE voters all turn out for a local election and the other side’s don’t is for the birds - it’s a fact of life that there are people interested in local elections and who think they are important, and those do don’t, across all parties. No party is ever going to get all of its GE supporters out for a local election; that would be a miracle.

    So to achieve results like that the LibDems will have won across local election voters who previously voted Tory, for sure.

    However, it does appear that in Chelmsford the LibDems ran an active campaign whereas the Tories almost sat on their hands (the leader of the Chemsford Tories wrote an article for ConHome about his campaign, most of which explained why they weren’t doing things - for example they stopped canvassing because it was upsetting people!). In such circumstances the LDs surely did better in pulling out their supporters than the Tories. But the difference an active campaign makes to a result is generally around the margins - most local elections are won or lost before the election period starts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    edited May 8
    > @AndyJS said:
    > O/T
    >
    > The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) has endorsed the Brexit Party for the Euro elections.
    >
    > https://www.cpgb-ml.org/2019/05/07/news/galloway-farage-brexit-party-eu-election/
    >
    > Quote:
    > "Along with George Galloway, the CPGB-ML considers that a one-time-only vote for the Brexit party in the upcoming European elections is the best way for workers to repeat their demand that Brexit actually be delivered."

    They endorsed Corbyn at the last general election and have endorsed the Brexit Party for the European elections
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    edited May 8
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
    > >
    > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
    >
    > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum

    Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    Amazing performance by Liverpool FC

    where's Eagles?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
    > > >
    > > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
    > >
    > > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
    >
    > Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.

    the degree issue has been pointed out for ages, which makes the "stupid" meme for leavers a tad stupid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
    > > >
    > > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
    > >
    > > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
    >
    > Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.

    I think it is still just under 50% of young people are graduates
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    IanB2 said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @DavidL said:

    >

    > > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.

    >

    >

    >

    > Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!

    >

    > Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.

    >

    >

    >

    > That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.

    >

    > I see no signs that Corbyn is considering standing down.

    >

    > This is wishful thinking.



    There were some hints from inside Labour a while back that he might be thinking of doing so. My guess is that he wants to see off May first, and have some certainty around the succession. If May is despatched, things could move quickly.

    You could probably find hints somewhere about just about anything that support a case.

    Across the pond there are successful political leaders far older than he is, some of whom are running for office all over again.

    My working assumption is that he stays until after the result of the next GE, whenever that is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    IanB2 said:

    > @rcs1000 said:

    > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:

    > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,

    > >

    > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/

    > >

    > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.

    > >

    > > Would be interested to hear views on this.

    >

    > That's right.

    >

    > However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher





    I would expect that a detailed analysis of the voting records would put some holes in that theory. The idea that one party’s GE voters all turn out for a local election and the other side’s don’t is for the birds - it’s a fact of life that there are people interested in local elections and who think they are important, and those do don’t, across all parties. No party is ever going to get all of its GE supporters out for a local election; that would be a miracle.



    So to achieve results like that the LibDems will have won across local election voters who previously voted Tory, for sure.



    However, it does appear that in Chelmsford the LibDems ran an active campaign whereas the Tories almost sat on their hands (the leader of the Chemsford Tories wrote an article for ConHome about his campaign, most of which explained why they weren’t doing things - for example they stopped canvassing because it was upsetting people!). In such circumstances the LDs surely did better in pulling out their supporters than the Tories. But the difference an active campaign makes to a result is generally around the margins - most local elections are won or lost before the election period starts.

    Maybe I’m overly sensitive but I can get affected by a bad canvassing experience. Like many Brits I don’t particularly like doing it “naturally” anyway, as it feels rather intrusive to knock on a strangers door and it takes a while for me to warm up.

    When you start getting hectored or lambasted on the doorstep as a volunteer it simply isn’t fun, and your sense of duty to the Party only stretches so far.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    The Councils where Labour ought to be breaking through, but are not, are ones like South Derbyshire, NW Leicestershire, East Staffordshire, Watford, Swindon, Thurrock, Dartford, Medway, Tamworth, Dacorum, Dudley, Walsall, Dover, North Warwickshire, NE Lincolnshire, traditional swing boroughs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    edited May 8
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    >
    > > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    >
    > > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Would be interested to hear views on this.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > That's right.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > I would expect that a detailed analysis of the voting records would put some holes in that theory. The idea that one party’s GE voters all turn out for a local election and the other side’s don’t is for the birds - it’s a fact of life that there are people interested in local elections and who think they are important, and those do don’t, across all parties. No party is ever going to get all of its GE supporters out for a local election; that would be a miracle.
    >
    >
    >
    > So to achieve results like that the LibDems will have won across local election voters who previously voted Tory, for sure.
    >
    >
    >
    > However, it does appear that in Chelmsford the LibDems ran an active campaign whereas the Tories almost sat on their hands (the leader of the Chemsford Tories wrote an article for ConHome about his campaign, most of which explained why they weren’t doing things - for example they stopped canvassing because it was upsetting people!). In such circumstances the LDs surely did better in pulling out their supporters than the Tories. But the difference an active campaign makes to a result is generally around the margins - most local elections are won or lost before the election period starts.
    >
    > Maybe I’m overly sensitive but I can get affected by a bad canvassing experience. Like many Brits I don’t particularly like doing it “naturally” anyway, as it feels rather intrusive to knock on a strangers door and it takes a while for me to warm up.
    >
    > When you start getting hectored or lambasted on the doorstep as a volunteer it simply isn’t fun, and your sense of duty to the Party only stretches so far.

    Maybe but without up to date canvassing data on who your supporters are to knock up in a close election you will lose.

    The Tories held 2 marginal wards in Epping Forest last week from the LDs each by less than 100 votes largely due to effective canvass data and knocking up, it seems Tories in Chelmsford did not and suffered the consequences
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,827
    The problem with this article and several of the comments is that it compares an unsatisfactory present with a hypothetical alternative reality ("If X were leader, Labour would be Y% ahead"). In practice, as we've repeatedly seen, all Labour leaders are besieged by media attempts to portray them as extreme, stupid, bumbling, out of touch, or any combination of those. It usually works - only Tony Blair in recent memory was able to ride it out successfully. Miliband "was an out of touch North London intellectual - can't even eat a bacon sandwich properly". Brown was "a domineering spendthrift", Smith was "a reckless supporter of high taxation", Kinnock was "a Welsh windbag", etc. We all have weaknesses and the media and now social media are adept at highlighting them.

    Labour has structural difficulties that would not be solved by replacing Corbyn with, say, Watson. Are we socialists (wanting to change from capitalism) or social democrats (wanting to run capitalism humanely)? Are we Remainers or Leavers or don't we really care? Are we idealistic middle-class intellectuals or hard-headed working-class champions? Are we rooted in the north or the south? What is our Scottish appeal?

    What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    Scott_P said:
    Hands up who thought things couldn't get worse and have just been proved wrong?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    I think the ease of voting by post has been a factor in the Conservatives' performance in local elections since 2000. They've been the biggest party in local government since 2003, which is quite a run.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    Sean_F said:

    The Councils where Labour ought to be breaking through, but are not, are ones like South Derbyshire, NW Leicestershire, East Staffordshire, Watford, Swindon, Thurrock, Dartford, Medway, Tamworth, Dacorum, Dudley, Walsall, Dover, North Warwickshire, NE Lincolnshire, traditional swing boroughs.

    But, in Croydon and Harlow, they have.

    White middle-class southern youth absolutely love him.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,221
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > The problem with this article and several of the comments is that it compares an unsatisfactory present with a hypothetical alternative reality ("If X were leader, Labour would be Y% ahead"). In practice, as we've repeatedly seen, all Labour leaders are besieged by media attempts to portray them as extreme, stupid, bumbling, out of touch, or any combination of those. It usually works - only Tony Blair in recent memory was able to ride it out successfully. Miliband "was an out of touch North London intellectual - can't even eat a bacon sandwich properly". Brown was "a domineering spendthrift", Smith was "a reckless supporter of high taxation", Kinnock was "a Welsh windbag", etc. We all have weaknesses and the media and now social media are adept at highlighting them.
    >
    > Labour has structural difficulties that would not be solved by replacing Corbyn with, say, Watson. Are we socialists (wanting to change from capitalism) or social democrats (wanting to run capitalism humanely)? Are we Remainers or Leavers or don't we really care? Are we idealistic middle-class intellectuals or hard-headed working-class champions? Are we rooted in the north or the south? What is our Scottish appeal?
    >
    > What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.

    Tory leaders are mocked and lampooned every bit as much as Labour ones, and I never understand these rather gushing claims about what a lovely bloke he is in his spare time, because we aren't really concerned about what he does in his spare time, are we?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > The Councils where Labour ought to be breaking through, but are not, are ones like South Derbyshire, NW Leicestershire, East Staffordshire, Watford, Swindon, Thurrock, Dartford, Medway, Tamworth, Dacorum, Dudley, Walsall, Dover, North Warwickshire, NE Lincolnshire, traditional swing boroughs.
    >
    > But, in Croydon and Harlow, they have.
    >
    > White middle-class southern youth absolutely love him.

    Harlow is unusual. Like Stevenage, it's remained very loyal to Labour locally, while going Conservative nationally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    edited May 8
    Nick

    Don't forget any of your other paragraphs could refer to the Tories too. Thatcher, Major, Hague, Duncan Smith, Howard, even Cameron to a lesser extent all came in for nasty media heckling. It's what they do. It's one reason why Cameron couldn't win an overall majority at the first attempt despite Brown's government being less popular than Major's.

    What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.

    But none of those refer to anything other than party management. If Labour members all want one thing, and refuse to compromise on it, and the electorate want something different, then Labour has to accept it can't win power. And ultimately if Labour isn't fully focussed on winning power, it won't. At the moment, that's the decision it has made. If you're happy with that, great, but it seems to me as a swing voter to be a poor decision.

    It was Blair's genius that he understood this and led Labour back to power, and I would add that was what Labour members (including you I think) wanted more than anything in the mid-90s.

    Have a good morning.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > The problem with this article and several of the comments is that it compares an unsatisfactory present with a hypothetical alternative reality ("If X were leader, Labour would be Y% ahead"). In practice, as we've repeatedly seen, all Labour leaders are besieged by media attempts to portray them as extreme, stupid, bumbling, out of touch, or any combination of those. It usually works - only Tony Blair in recent memory was able to ride it out successfully. Miliband "was an out of touch North London intellectual - can't even eat a bacon sandwich properly". Brown was "a domineering spendthrift", Smith was "a reckless supporter of high taxation", Kinnock was "a Welsh windbag", etc. We all have weaknesses and the media and now social media are adept at highlighting them.
    >
    > Labour has structural difficulties that would not be solved by replacing Corbyn with, say, Watson. Are we socialists (wanting to change from capitalism) or social democrats (wanting to run capitalism humanely)? Are we Remainers or Leavers or don't we really care? Are we idealistic middle-class intellectuals or hard-headed working-class champions? Are we rooted in the north or the south? What is our Scottish appeal?
    >
    > What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.

    If Jeremy Corbyn is the best that Labour can offer Labour is finished. Most people who know Jeremy like him because most people who know him agree with him. He never leaves his comfort zone. That's where the loyalty comes from, too. And most Labour members do not want to leave the EU or NATO; while even now I struggle to believe that most are anti-Semitic - though, to their eternal shame, they are willing to overlook those among them who are.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    Sean_F said:

    I think the ease of voting by post has been a factor in the Conservatives' performance in local elections since 2000. They've been the biggest party in local government since 2003, which is quite a run.

    Conservatives seem to be trusted to keep council tax lower, which is often the case but isn’t always, IMHO.

    On the other hand, Labour councils have a branding problem of big spenders who hit their residents in the pocket.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589
    HYUFD said:
    So in a three-way referendum, Mrs May’s Deal gets only 10% of first preferences. I guess that means there’s no chance whatsoever of getting a referendum with that question.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    edited May 8
    Labour ought not be leaving 25% of seats unfought, either.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    The LD's did exceptionally well in Chelmsford, by comparison with the immediately neighbouring councils.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 241
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
    > > > >
    > > > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
    > > >
    > > > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
    > >
    > > Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.
    >
    > the degree issue has been pointed out for ages, which makes the "stupid" meme for leavers a tad stupid.

    The "stupid" meme is stupid, but the stats being quoted there are for under 35s, which is more interesting.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816

    Sean_F said:

    I think the ease of voting by post has been a factor in the Conservatives' performance in local elections since 2000. They've been the biggest party in local government since 2003, which is quite a run.

    Conservatives seem to be trusted to keep council tax lower, which is often the case but isn’t always, IMHO.

    On the other hand, Labour councils have a branding problem of big spenders who hit their residents in the pocket.
    At some point the penny has to drop that if you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.

    Labour councils have often been profligate, but high council tax levels are a lot easier to reallocate after years of austerity. A Conservative council which prides itself on low council tax has no wriggle room given the 1.99% cap and the increasing demands on council spending.

    We are about to have a real shit-hits-fan moment in our town as a direct result of (Conservative) county council cuts and it really isn’t going to be pretty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    edited May 8
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning PB, from one very happy Liverpool fan who decided to go to bed early rather than think his team might put four past Barcelona.

    Good piece as usual Alastair, there must now be a reasonable chance of both main parties replacing their leaders over the summer.

    About the only thing that might cheer up a dreary politics, but prepare to be disappointed or that each is replaced by someone worse! Mark Francois and Chris Williamson here we come.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 87
    By George, this is quite a take-down. Problem is, what are the betting implications? Based on this it would probably be 'bet against Corbyn' but it's impossible to rule out the possibility of Corbyn becoming our Prime minister, all the bluster about locals etc, the next elected PM will either be an unknown Tory or Corbyn.

    Some of the 'time to retire' comments are pure fantasy, I even saw a comment on here a while back saying Corbyn has cancer and John McDonnell is poised to swoop in. Quite an intense claim to spuriously spread about.

    I get he's a marmite figure and I consistently voted against him, but to laser in on the locals or dream of him suddenly retiring or dying(!) ignores the reality that he is about 30 gains away from implementing his socialist utopia. Considering where he started from, doesn't look impossible...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 408
    > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    >
    > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    >
    > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    >
    > Would be interested to hear views on this.

    Several important mistakes. Firstly the turnout was not markedly lower than comparable elections, even though it was lower last time, last time was a GE.

    False pattern recognition- just because the Lib Dem vote levels seem comparable it doesn't mean that they are all the same voters, in fact there is evidence of considerable numbers of previously Conservative voters actively voting against the Tories, not merely sitting on their hands.

    There is further evidence that the Conservative organisation was demoralised and badly organised and to a degree complacent, whereas the Lib Dems were active and fired up.

    The crumbs of comfort that some Conservatives are seeking to draw... "Voters strike" etc are not supported by much evidence. The fact is the result was a shellacking for the Conservatives and it could have been quite a bit worse.

    The conclusion is that the Lib Dems have momentum and the Euros will be even worse for the Conservatives than the locals were.

    It may be that the negative publicity about Farage and the continuing UKIP may mean that TBP underperforms- that is the one hope the Conservatives have of avoiding their worst result ever. However the no dealers are maybe louder and more rage filled than they are actually numerous, so I don't exclude a weaker - albeit still impressive- combined UKIP/TBP result compared to UKIP alone last time. That is the straw that Tories must continue to pluck at.

    Caught between a UKIP/TBP vote flanking them on the far right/Leave axis and the Lib Dems flanking them on the centre/Remain axis, there might not be much for the Tories to save.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    edited May 8

    Amazing performance by Liverpool FC



    where's Eagles?

    Still celebrating, I’ve got a headache from all the noise. I didn’t think anything would top Chelsea 2005 for sheer noise but I was wrong, but there was even I was chanting along to ‘Allez Allez Allez’ and ‘Fuck off Suarez.’

    I was there last night and I’ll be in Madrid on the first of June.

    I might actually pray today and thank Allah for stepping Jürgen Klopp from becoming Manchester United manager, sheer brilliance from Ed Woodward.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    Betting post.....

    at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631

    Sean_F said:

    I think the ease of voting by post has been a factor in the Conservatives' performance in local elections since 2000. They've been the biggest party in local government since 2003, which is quite a run.

    Conservatives seem to be trusted to keep council tax lower, which is often the case but isn’t always, IMHO.

    On the other hand, Labour councils have a branding problem of big spenders who hit their residents in the pocket.
    At some point the penny has to drop that if you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.

    Labour councils have often been profligate, but high council tax levels are a lot easier to reallocate after years of austerity. A Conservative council which prides itself on low council tax has no wriggle room given the 1.99% cap and the increasing demands on council spending.

    We are about to have a real shit-hits-fan moment in our town as a direct result of (Conservative) county council cuts and it really isn’t going to be pretty.
    The government clearly knows this given it relaxed the cap to 2.99 and exempted more on top of that for the social care levy, which is recognition the cap was no longer working, but I doubt they would change it completely. Too easy to attack .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631

    IanB2 said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @DavidL said:

    >

    > > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.

    >

    >

    >

    > Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!

    >

    > Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.

    >

    >

    >

    > That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.

    >

    > I see no signs that Corbyn is considering standing down.

    >

    > This is wishful thinking.



    There were some hints from inside Labour a while back that he might be thinking of doing so. My guess is that he wants to see off May first, and have some certainty around the succession. If May is despatched, things could move quickly.

    You could probably find hints somewhere about just about anything that support a case.

    Across the pond there are successful political leaders far older than he is, some of whom are running for office all over again.

    My working assumption is that he stays until after the result of the next GE, whenever that is.
    Agreed. It's too much if a humiliation not to.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    Lionel Messi = A shit Divock Origi.

    Discuss.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    Roger said:

    Betting post.....



    at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?

    That first bet is still about a 10/1 shot isn’t it? The likelihood is you’ll lose £45
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    On topic I see Alastair is triggering Ipswich Town supporting Corbynites.

    I mean Tories lost over a 1,300 seats and Labour still made a net loss of seats, remarkable.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,746
    AndyJS said:

    O/T



    The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) has endorsed the Brexit Party for the Euro elections.



    https://www.cpgb-ml.org/2019/05/07/news/galloway-farage-brexit-party-eu-election/



    Quote:

    "Along with George Galloway, the CPGB-ML considers that a one-time-only vote for the Brexit party in the upcoming European elections is the best way for workers to repeat their demand that Brexit actually be delivered."

    This isn't the CPGB. CPGB(ML) is a load of wankers who were kicked out of SLP. They can be unfailingly relied upon to advance whatever cause supports Russia's foreign policy goals at the time.

    Anybody who writes "splitters" under this fails at comedy and at life.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,414
    edited May 8

    By George, this is quite a take-down. Problem is, what are the betting implications? Based on this it would probably be 'bet against Corbyn' but it's impossible to rule out the possibility of Corbyn becoming our Prime minister, all the bluster about locals etc, the next elected PM will either be an unknown Tory or Corbyn.



    Some of the 'time to retire' comments are pure fantasy, I even saw a comment on here a while back saying Corbyn has cancer and John McDonnell is poised to swoop in. Quite an intense claim to spuriously spread about.



    I get he's a marmite figure and I consistently voted against him, but to laser in on the locals or dream of him suddenly retiring or dying(!) ignores the reality that he is about 30 gains away from implementing his socialist utopia. Considering where he started from, doesn't look impossible...

    @Ploppikins

    Just to be clear, when I posted the comment about Corbyn being unwell I explicitly stated it was third hand gossip from the Westminster circle and I had no way of validating it.

    So there was no spurious spreading of rumours just a factual statement of what I had been told. It’s up to other people to decided if/how to factor their betting
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    > @isam said:
    > Betting post.....
    >
    >
    >
    > at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?
    >
    > That first bet is still about a 10/1 shot isn’t it? The likelihood is you’ll lose £45

    How do you work that out?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,537
    Return flights to Madrid are now over £1,500 at the end of May.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 8
    Roger said:

    > @isam said:

    > Betting post.....

    >

    >

    >

    > at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?

    >

    > That first bet is still about a 10/1 shot isn’t it? The likelihood is you’ll lose £45



    How do you work that out?

    Was the first bet City to win the title, not Liverpool?


  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited May 8
    > @Roger said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > Betting post.....
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?
    > >
    > > That first bet is still about a 10/1 shot isn’t it? The likelihood is you’ll lose £45
    >
    > How do you work that out?

    Of course! If City win I lose. I thought it was too good to be true. My brain wasn't functioning
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    dr_spyn said:

    Return flights to Madrid are now over £1,500 at the end of May.

    The Champions League final coincides with the start of my stint as editor of PB, that weekend you’re getting a lot of written well in advance threads on AV and electoral reform.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,746



    My working assumption is that he stays until after the result of the next GE, whenever that is.

    That's dead on. He hasn't come this far not to have another at tilt at a GE which would almost certainly see him installed as PM albeit with Sturgeon keeping his withered old pods in her sporran.
  • > @Cicero said:
    > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    > >
    > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    > >
    > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    > >
    > > Would be interested to hear views on this.
    >
    > Several important mistakes. Firstly the turnout was not markedly lower than comparable elections, even though it was lower last time, last time was a GE.
    >
    > False pattern recognition- just because the Lib Dem vote levels seem comparable it doesn't mean that they are all the same voters, in fact there is evidence of considerable numbers of previously Conservative voters actively voting against the Tories, not merely sitting on their hands.
    >
    > There is further evidence that the Conservative organisation was demoralised and badly organised and to a degree complacent, whereas the Lib Dems were active and fired up.
    >
    > The crumbs of comfort that some Conservatives are seeking to draw... "Voters strike" etc are not supported by much evidence. The fact is the result was a shellacking for the Conservatives and it could have been quite a bit worse.
    >
    > The conclusion is that the Lib Dems have momentum and the Euros will be even worse for the Conservatives than the locals were.
    >
    > It may be that the negative publicity about Farage and the continuing UKIP may mean that TBP underperforms- that is the one hope the Conservatives have of avoiding their worst result ever. However the no dealers are maybe louder and more rage filled than they are actually numerous, so I don't exclude a weaker - albeit still impressive- combined UKIP/TBP result compared to UKIP alone last time. That is the straw that Tories must continue to pluck at.
    >
    > Caught between a UKIP/TBP vote flanking them on the far right/Leave axis and the Lib Dems flanking them on the centre/Remain axis, there might not be much for the Tories to save.

    Thanks Cicero. Just on the active switch of Conservative voters to Lib Dem, is there much hard evidence? I don't recall seeing much
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064
    Why is Mr Bastani taken seriously? He’ll clearly say black is white if it advances his view. Slightly dishonest and would be better ignored.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    > @DavidL said:
    > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
    >
    > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.

    'Ohh, John McDonnell' doesn't scan. He'll have to stay on until he can find a five syllable replacement
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    Times: "Defiant May could stay until autumn after inventing new “summer recess” deadline that would delay leadership contest"

    Will there actually be a Tory party left by the autumn to have a conference?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 408
    edited May 8
    > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > > @Cicero said:
    > > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    > > >
    > > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    > > >
    > > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
    > > >
    > > > Would be interested to hear views on this.
    > >
    > > Several important mistakes. Firstly the turnout was not markedly lower than comparable elections, even though it was lower last time, last time was a GE.
    > >
    > > False pattern recognition- just because the Lib Dem vote levels seem comparable it doesn't mean that they are all the same voters, in fact there is evidence of considerable numbers of previously Conservative voters actively voting against the Tories, not merely sitting on their hands.
    > >
    > > There is further evidence that the Conservative organisation was demoralised and badly organised and to a degree complacent, whereas the Lib Dems were active and fired up.
    > >
    > > The crumbs of comfort that some Conservatives are seeking to draw... "Voters strike" etc are not supported by much evidence. The fact is the result was a shellacking for the Conservatives and it could have been quite a bit worse.
    > >
    > > The conclusion is that the Lib Dems have momentum and the Euros will be even worse for the Conservatives than the locals were.
    > >
    > > It may be that the negative publicity about Farage and the continuing UKIP may mean that TBP underperforms- that is the one hope the Conservatives have of avoiding their worst result ever. However the no dealers are maybe louder and more rage filled than they are actually numerous, so I don't exclude a weaker - albeit still impressive- combined UKIP/TBP result compared to UKIP alone last time. That is the straw that Tories must continue to pluck at.
    > >
    > > Caught between a UKIP/TBP vote flanking them on the far right/Leave axis and the Lib Dems flanking them on the centre/Remain axis, there might not be much for the Tories to save.
    >
    > Thanks Cicero. Just on the active switch of Conservative voters to Lib Dem, is there much hard evidence? I don't recall seeing much

    Public data is a bit thin... I think some of the voter panels picked it up, certainly canvass returns showed 15%-20% switching in at least three districts where the Tories lost control that I saw. Not necessarily nationally consistent, but then the results too varied across the country, but I think, thin as it is it is, enough to infer that it was similar in Chelmsford.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > Return flights to Madrid are now over £1,500 at the end of May.
    >
    > The Champions League final coincides with the start of my stint as editor of PB, that weekend you’re getting a lot of written well in advance threads on AV and electoral reform.

    As a lifelong Man Utd supporter I watched Liverpool last night and have nothing but praise for Klopp, the players and supporters in achieving a magnificient result with awe inspiring total football.

    Over the years I have had many great times with Man Utd culminating in being in Barcelona when Ole scored the winner, but the quality and energy in the football displayed by Liverpool and City is so remarkable I doubt Man Utd will compete at this level for several years

    Every good wish to Liverpool to win the Champions league, indeed they may even do the double

    Amazing
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,668
    ' The Conservatives got hammered in last week’s local elections, that much is unarguable. '

    Actually that is arguable.

    They didn't do well and they inevitably lost a lot of councillors.

    BUT THE CONSERVATIVE NEV WAS 31%

    Equal to Labour and 14% above the LibDems.

    Now lets remember how governing parties have done in some earlier years:

    1985
    Conservative NEV 32%, 7% behind Labour, 6% ahead of Alliance

    1990
    Conservative NEV 33%, 11% behind Labour, 16% ahead of LibDems

    1993
    Conservative NEV 31%, 8% behind Labour, 6% ahead of LibDems

    1994
    Conservative NEV 27%, 12% behind Labour, 1% ahead of LibDems

    1995
    Conservative NEV 25%, 22% behind Labour, 2% ahead of LibDems

    1996
    Conservative NEV 29%, 14% behind Labour, 3% ahead of LibDems

    2000
    Labour NEV 30%, 8% behind Conservatives, 4% ahead of LibDems

    2003
    Labour NEV 30%, 5% behind Conservatives, 3% ahead of LibDems

    2004
    Labour NEV 26%, 11% behind Conservatives, 1% behind LibDems

    2006
    Labour NEV 26%, 13% behind Conservatives, 1% ahead of LibDems

    2007
    Labour NEV 26%, 14% behind Conservatives, 2% ahead of LibDems

    2008
    Labour NEV 24%, 19% behind Conservatives, 1% ahead of LibDems

    2009
    Labour NEV 22%, 13% behind Conservatives, 3% behind LibDems

    2012
    Conservative NEV 33%, 6% behind Labour, 18% ahead of LibDems

    2013
    Conservative NEV 26%, 3% behind Labour, 13% ahead of LibDems
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,827
    Remarkable example of bet-hedging:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48195463

    Executive summary: "Dunno!"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,220
    Charles said:

    By George, this is quite a take-down. Problem is, what are the betting implications? Based on this it would probably be 'bet against Corbyn' but it's impossible to rule out the possibility of Corbyn becoming our Prime minister, all the bluster about locals etc, the next elected PM will either be an unknown Tory or Corbyn.



    Some of the 'time to retire' comments are pure fantasy, I even saw a comment on here a while back saying Corbyn has cancer and John McDonnell is poised to swoop in. Quite an intense claim to spuriously spread about.



    I get he's a marmite figure and I consistently voted against him, but to laser in on the locals or dream of him suddenly retiring or dying(!) ignores the reality that he is about 30 gains away from implementing his socialist utopia. Considering where he started from, doesn't look impossible...

    @Ploppikins

    Just to be clear, when I posted the comment about Corbyn being unwell I explicitly stated it was third hand gossip from the Westminster circle and I had no way of validating it.

    So there was no spurious spreading of rumours just a factual statement of what I had been told. It’s up to other people to decided if/how to factor their betting
    Wouldn't pass the FCA gossip test Charles.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,746
    Roger said:

    > @DavidL said:

    > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.

    >

    > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.



    'Ohh, John McDonnell' doesn't scan. He'll have to stay on until he can find a five syllable replacement

    Old McDonnell had a farm,
    And on that farm he re-educated tory shits through penal labour.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    >

    I remember when Derby won the league Malcolm Allison saying 'This lot won't get past Calais'
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    The venom from the likes of Bill Cash demanding TM resigns sums up the blinkers ERG have in so far as they have no alternatives that could change anything, and you do wonder just how many conservative mps want TM out just now and as Sky has just commented there does not seem to be a big move by the public against TM as the public think she is doing the best she can
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > The venom from the likes of Bill Cash demanding TM resigns sums up the blinkers ERG have in so far as they have no alternatives that could change anything, and you do wonder just how many conservative mps want TM out just now and as Sky has just commented there does not seem to be a big move by the public against TM as the public think she is doing the best she can

    There does seem to be some mental disfunction affecting a group of Conservative MP's. Rare for such na thing to be catching. Have they been eating rye bread and therefore developed a form of ergotism?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    I suppose the thing is that FPTP is more brutal at Commons constituency level then at local council ward level. Even with a shit leadership, Labour can still win the next general election if the public are more desperate to rid themselves of the Tories.

    Many seats will be won with a lower share of the vote than lost the seat in 2017.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    Morning PB,

    So it's Countdown Wednesday as Theresa May has until 4pm today to set out her "roadmap" to buggering off.

    #curtains :D
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,468
    edited May 8
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Thought for a crazy moment that Alex Massie's old pa had found some money down the back of a sofa.

    Not the most inspiring track record as a backer.

    'Mr Massie has donated to politicians including Kezia Dugdale, the former Scottish Labour leader who has announced she is quitting parliament this summer, Owen Smith, who lost a leadership challenge against Mr Corbyn in 2016, and Jim Murphy, Ms Dugdale’s predecessor who presided over the 2015 election in which his party lost 40 of its 41 Westminster seats.'
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 8
    ydoethur said:

    Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
    https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
    The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.

    Would be interested to hear views on this.

    That contradicts the thread header, which says turnout wasn't lower. Was there anything different about Chelmsford, or has Alistair got it wrong?
    Probably better to compare with 2011 though.


    In my area;

    Turnout dropped a bit on 2011.

    In terms of raw votes the Lib Dems were on par with 2011, only slightly above par when taking into account the turnout drop.

    This is a Tory Leave area where Labour is the main challenger sure, but it's not like there aren't plenty of Remainers, more than enough to have an effect on a low turnout election if they were minded too.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    > @DavidL said:

    > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.

    >

    > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.



    'Ohh, John McDonnell' doesn't scan. He'll have to stay on until he can find a five syllable replacement

    Old McDonnell had a farm,
    And on that farm he re-educated tory shits through penal labour.
    I ain't gonna work on McDonnell's farm no more
    No, I ain't gonna work on McDonnell's farm no more
    Well, I wake up in the morning, fold my hands and pray for rain
    He's got a head full of ideas that are drivin' him insane...
This discussion has been closed.