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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given The Brexit party looks almost a certainty for the Euros

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given The Brexit party looks almost a certainty for the Euros which party will come second?

It is hard to recall now but a couple of months ago when the first betting markets were opened  on what then seemed a only possible set of Euro elections in the UK LAB was made the odds-on favourites with the Brexit party on 4/1. Well that has all changed and it is hard to see anything other than Farage’s party heading for a notable victory on May 23rd.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    edited May 8
    First, like ChUK in Peterborough??
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    edited May 8
    Second, like the topic of this thread!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Labour or maybe the Lib Dems seem likeliest.

    Voting Conservative is overtly supporting May's deal, or so it seems. And her deal ain't popular.

    Labour will have its tribal vote and the far left but lose on the fringes to both BP and the pro-EU parties.

    Well, that's my view, anyway.

    I still don't know who to vote for. I might just spoil my ballot.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,026
    edited May 8
    I am voting Change UK in the European elections!

    I do wonder on how Change UK have decided to strategically plan for these elections. It is not too late to create a campaign grid and stick at it to maximise their vote. I got the feeling Chuka Umunna was kicking off the campaign on Monday only for the Royal birth to eclipse it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    Labour probably, in fact there’s room in the polls for them to chase down TBP. Less likely seem Conservatives, I expect they will get a late bounce and if combined with a further split of the Labour vote then maybe they could edge it. I don’t rate the rest tbh.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,949
    Air France plane missing over Iran..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    Face food?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    Feck me. Chav name or what?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > Feck me. Chav name or what?

    Archie Harrison-Mountbatten sounds like he was mentioned in dispatches at the Battle of Omdurman.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    Depends on whether it dawns on people that a Labour vote could mean anything and therefore is wasted. If so the LDs could be worth a punt, but I'd wait to see whether CUK gets any traction
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,993
    The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,060
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Air France plane missing over Iran..

    Looks like it was making an emergency approach into Isfahan. The meeja seem to be freaked out by the fact that tracking sites like FR24 stop reporting accurately as a plane lands but there's no indication it hasn't actually landed safely.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    On topic: No mention of the Green Party? A safer repository of Labour voters on holiday than LD or Chukkers plus the USP of actually standing for something other than BrexitRemain. Shat on the LDs last time too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Archie as a christened name sounds a bit weird. Like Joe rather than Joseph.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,060
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > Feck me. Chav name or what?
    >
    > Archie Harrison-Mountbatten sounds like he was mentioned in dispatches at the Battle of Omdurman.

    Nah, they didn't change to "Mountbatten" until 1917 so it'd've been Archie Harrison-Battenberg.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @justin124 said:
    > The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?

    Because they polled 10% in 2015, giving them a shedload of gains this time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. rpjs, my favourite title remains that of a lady some centuries ago who was Countess of Champagne and Brie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @IanB2 said:
    > Depends on whether it dawns on people that a Labour vote could mean anything and therefore is wasted.

    Not happening.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,221
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,060
    > @rpjs said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > Air France plane missing over Iran..
    >
    > Looks like it was making an emergency approach into Isfahan. The meeja seem to be freaked out by the fact that tracking sites like FR24 stop reporting accurately as a plane lands but there's no indication it hasn't actually landed safely.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > First, like ChUK in Peterborough??

    Hah.

    If a joint independent remain candidate did win, what if they did then join one of the parties in parliamebt?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. rpjs, my favourite title remains that of a lady some centuries ago who was Countess of Champagne and Brie.

    She should have been put in charge of the Remain campaign.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,060
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    I'm no royalist. And I can't get interested too much in the personal goings on of people I don't know. But that is a very sweet photo. Really, you would need a heart of stone not to be moved by the sight of a great-grandparent meeting a great-grandchild.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    Prince Archie?

    Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    No sign of either grandfather....


    ...or Prince Charles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @Cookie said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > I'm no royalist. And I can't get interested too much in the personal goings on of people I don't know. But that is a very sweet photo. Really, you would need a heart of stone not to be moved by the sight of a great-grandparent meeting a great-grandchild.

    Something most generations of humanity would not have had the opportunity to do.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @justin124 said:
    > The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?

    They are the unambiguos stop Brexit party
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    > @kle4 said:
    > Prince Archie?
    >
    > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?

    They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.
  • ajbajb Posts: 6
    The normal reason to vote for a party is to put their candidates in office. In this election both main parties are committed to chucking them right out again ASAP. So it's difficult for me to see why anyone would vote Labour or Tory in the Euros. Some number will turn out out of habit, duty, or because they just turned 18. But I think most who vote will do so to express an opinion on Brexit, which means TPB and probably the LDs.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @ajb said:
    > The normal reason to vote for a party is to put their candidates in office. In this election both main parties are committed to chucking them right out again ASAP. So it's difficult for me to see why anyone would vote Labour or Tory in the Euros. Some number will turn out out of habit, duty, or because they just turned 18. But I think most who vote will do so to express an opinion on Brexit, which means TPB and probably the LDs.

    That may be officially Labour policy for the moment but I would bet most of their candidates are looking forward to serving a full term, and a great many of their MPs will try to make that happen. Most Labour voters seem confident of that succeeding even now, so have reason to turn out for Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > No sign of either grandfather....
    >
    >
    > ...or Prince Charles.

    Maybe someone should photoshop James Hewitt into that picture.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    W> @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. rpjs, my favourite title remains that of a lady some centuries ago who was Countess of Champagne and Brie.

    Queen Joan 1 of Navarre.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,344
    > @ajb said:
    > The normal reason to vote for a party is to put their candidates in office. In this election both main parties are committed to chucking them right out again ASAP. So it's difficult for me to see why anyone would vote Labour or Tory in the Euros. Some number will turn out out of habit, duty, or because they just turned 18. But I think most who vote will do so to express an opinion on Brexit, which means TPB and probably the LDs.

    I think there is a reason to vote Lab, which is basically to support the Corbyn project. It isn't an EU-based reason, but it is a reason. The better Labour do generally the better Corbyn does, and his chances of becoming PM and nationalising things etc increases.

    The issue the Tories have is there isn't even that. The proportion of the public who support the May Deal or believe in some kind of TM project beyond her Brexit-policy is minimal, and it's all over the news that she'll be lucky to be PM in 3 months anyway.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    > @Roger said:
    > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.

    Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @saddo said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    >
    > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.

    Most of the Commons would rather capitulate more, so while she's made things quite a bit worse, I am baffled how you think any person might reverse that. The ERG, by majority, agreed in the end to follow her capitulation as better than nothing, which is what they thought we'd get otherwise.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    No chance of him becoming a candidate for the SWP then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > No sign of either grandfather....
    >
    >
    > ...or Prince Charles.

    Prince Charles is in Germany.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @saddo said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    >
    > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.

    And who might that be. The only reason she remains in place is the cabinet back her plus more than half her mps. Should that change things may be different but the idea someone, even anyone, could resolve the issues better is not at all obvious
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @saddo said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    > >
    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > Most of the Commons would rather capitulate more, so while she's made things quite a bit worse, I am baffled how you think any person might reverse that. The ERG, by majority, agreed in the end to follow her capitulation as better than nothing, which is what they thought we'd get otherwise.

    The capitulation was written in the minute people were dumb enough to believe we would ever hold all the aces against 27 others.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,909
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > No sign of either grandfather....
    >
    >
    > ...or Prince Charles.

    Ooorrrff with your head!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    > @ajb said:
    > The normal reason to vote for a party is to put their candidates in office. In this election both main parties are committed to chucking them right out again ASAP. So it's difficult for me to see why anyone would vote Labour or Tory in the Euros. Some number will turn out out of habit, duty, or because they just turned 18. But I think most who vote will do so to express an opinion on Brexit, which means TPB and probably the LDs.

    How are they committed to chucking those elected right out asap? If they were we would have left already, it seems to me the two parties are set for ongoing extensions as they cant stomach any of the alternatives?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    > @Quincel said:
    > > @ajb said:
    > > The normal reason to vote for a party is to put their candidates in office. In this election both main parties are committed to chucking them right out again ASAP. So it's difficult for me to see why anyone would vote Labour or Tory in the Euros. Some number will turn out out of habit, duty, or because they just turned 18. But I think most who vote will do so to express an opinion on Brexit, which means TPB and probably the LDs.
    >
    > I think there is a reason to vote Lab, which is basically to support the Corbyn project. It isn't an EU-based reason, but it is a reason. The better Labour do generally the better Corbyn does, and his chances of becoming PM and nationalising things etc increases.
    >
    > The issue the Tories have is there isn't even that. The proportion of the public who support the May Deal or believe in some kind of TM project beyond her Brexit-policy is minimal, and it's all over the news that she'll be lucky to be PM in 3 months anyway.

    There is also the fact that, if you live in one of the smaller regions, a vote for Labour is a vote against a Faragist MEP. I cannot see a Remain Party MEP in the NE with the vote split 3 ways. Wales would be a stretch, though PC may get one.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,993
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?
    >
    > They are the unambiguos stop Brexit party

    The LibDem MP for Eastbourne resigned the Whip to enable it!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,217
    > @saddo said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    >
    > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.

    Well, I'm a Remainer but I'm grateful to the ERG and Brexiteers in general who have stopped us leaving the EU so far and will hopefully result in a softer Brexit or none at all. Mrs May's deal is not capitulation to the EU it is a fairly hard Brexit in that we leave the Single Market and Customs Unions. Keep up the good work, Saddo.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,213
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @saddo said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    > >
    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > And who might that be. The only reason she remains in place is the cabinet back her plus more than half her mps. Should that change things may be different but the idea someone, even anyone, could resolve the issues better is not at all obvious

    Brexiters live in a complete fantasy world. It is always the way of nationalists and fascists. They are the antithesis of the pragmatist.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,015
    Scott_P said:
    Well, who recognises the picture behind?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?
    >
    > Because they polled 10% in 2015, giving them a shedload of gains this time.

    The gains arose more because they put on most of their votes in areas of former strength, rather than adding votes evenly across the country and simply chalking up better third places. It's an illustration of why UNS doesn't really apply to third parties.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,909
    > @saddo said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    >
    > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.

    There are so many on here convinced that the EU is waiting for another leader so that they can give them the Brexit that so many apparently want. May achieved a little bit more than Cameron with her deal. It honestly does not get any better than that. Most sane leavers understand that - certainly true on here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > No sign of either grandfather....
    > >
    > >
    > > ...or Prince Charles.
    >
    > Prince Charles is in Germany.

    A victim of the "hostile environment?"
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,213
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > No sign of either grandfather....
    > >
    > >
    > > ...or Prince Charles.
    >
    > Prince Charles is in Germany.

    It comes to something when Prince Charles is used to try and repair our international reputation as a grown up civilised country.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?
    > >
    > > Because they polled 10% in 2015, giving them a shedload of gains this time.
    >
    > The gains arose more because they put on most of their votes in areas of former strength, rather than adding votes evenly across the country and simply chalking up better third places. It's an illustration of why UNS doesn't really apply to third parties.

    I hope they do very well in the EU elections to counterbalance Farage and his Brexit party
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254

    Scott_P said:
    Well, who recognises the picture behind?
    It's an exact copy of one I own.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > On topic: No mention of the Green Party? A safer repository of Labour voters on holiday than LD or Chukkers plus the USP of actually standing for something other than BrexitRemain. Shat on the LDs last time too.

    The corrolary being that it's less clearly sending a message about Brexit
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Dean, cheers :)
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 87
    I thought about this the other day and reasoned the LDs will come a strong second, I'm talking 20%+. CUK couldn't have pulled off a much worse launch if they had hired Nick Timothy to run it and the greens historically have a much lower electoral roof than the LDs.

    On another note, if Farage wins is that some kind of record? Surely fastest time from founding a party to winning a national election.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,213
    > @felix said:
    > > @saddo said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    > >
    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > There are so many on here convinced that the EU is waiting for another leader so that they can give them the Brexit that so many apparently want. May achieved a little bit more than Cameron with her deal. It honestly does not get any better than that. Most sane leavers understand that - certainly true on here.

    Is "sane leaver" an oxymoron? A bit like a "sane self harmer".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > No sign of either grandfather....
    > >
    > >
    > > ...or Prince Charles.
    >
    > Prince Charles is in Germany.

    I am in Germany but haven't seen him.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @Ploppikins said:
    > I thought about this the other day and reasoned the LDs will come a strong second, I'm talking 20%+. CUK couldn't have pulled off a much worse launch if they had hired Nick Timothy to run it and the greens historically have a much lower electoral roof than the LDs.
    >
    > On another note, if Farage wins is that some kind of record? Surely fastest time from founding a party to winning a national election.

    Not really. He was already established with ukip
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Dean, cheers :)

    I imagine that was her catchphrase...would certainly be mine :)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,091
    I’m not a big fan of the monarchy overall but had a lot of time for Diana .

    Harry is a credit to his mum , and I think Archie’s a great name . Quite British and a bit old fashioned but also quite a warm name with a touch of eccentricity .

    The pic is lovely. Very heartwarming .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    justin124 said:

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > > @justin124 said:

    > > The LD polled 18% at the 2017 Local Elections . According to Rallings & Thrasher , this year they managed 17%. Why the hype?

    >

    > They are the unambiguos stop Brexit party



    The LibDem MP for Eastbourne resigned the Whip to enable it!

    Proving the party is indeed unambiguous about it. But they have been all along yet havent exactly done great until these locals.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    > @Quincel said:
    > > @ajb said:
    > > The normal reason to vote for a party is to put their candidates in office. In this election both main parties are committed to chucking them right out again ASAP. So it's difficult for me to see why anyone would vote Labour or Tory in the Euros. Some number will turn out out of habit, duty, or because they just turned 18. But I think most who vote will do so to express an opinion on Brexit, which means TPB and probably the LDs.
    >
    > I think there is a reason to vote Lab, which is basically to support the Corbyn project. It isn't an EU-based reason, but it is a reason. The better Labour do generally the better Corbyn does, and his chances of becoming PM and nationalising things etc increases.
    >
    > The issue the Tories have is there isn't even that. The proportion of the public who support the May Deal or believe in some kind of TM project beyond her Brexit-policy is minimal, and it's all over the news that she'll be lucky to be PM in 3 months anyway.

    The habitual vote plus those Tories with a British sense of fair play and feeling that the PM has been let down by her MPs will keep the Tories in double figures. To get much beyond that seems unlikely.

    I agree there are clear reasons to vote for Brexit, Labour, LD, Greens, struggling with Change - they really need to up their game for the campaign - and hopefully UKIP will drop below 2%.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    > @felix said:
    > > @saddo said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    > >
    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > There are so many on here convinced that the EU is waiting for another leader so that they can give them the Brexit that so many apparently want. May achieved a little bit more than Cameron with her deal. It honestly does not get any better than that. Most sane leavers understand that - certainly true on here.

    Just waiting for a proper leader, who actually knows how to negotiate, not the idiot who created the back stop, never leave the EU clause. Everything she touches turns to smelly brown stuff.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631

    > @Ploppikins said:

    > I thought about this the other day and reasoned the LDs will come a strong second, I'm talking 20%+. CUK couldn't have pulled off a much worse launch if they had hired Nick Timothy to run it and the greens historically have a much lower electoral roof than the LDs.

    >

    > On another note, if Farage wins is that some kind of record? Surely fastest time from founding a party to winning a national election.



    Not really. He was already established with ukip

    And outside this country plenty would have him beat
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    > @Ploppikins said:
    > I thought about this the other day and reasoned the LDs will come a strong second, I'm talking 20%+. CUK couldn't have pulled off a much worse launch if they had hired Nick Timothy to run it and the greens historically have a much lower electoral roof than the LDs.
    >
    > On another note, if Farage wins is that some kind of record? Surely fastest time from founding a party to winning a national election.

    Probably similar to En Marche. Though I doubt either Macron or Farage would appreciate the comparison.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    There is an additional betting risk with the LDs if some sort of last minute regional deal between them and CUK/Green does emerge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    saddo said:

    > @felix said:

    > > @saddo said:

    > > > @Roger said:

    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.

    > >

    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.

    >

    > There are so many on here convinced that the EU is waiting for another leader so that they can give them the Brexit that so many apparently want. May achieved a little bit more than Cameron with her deal. It honestly does not get any better than that. Most sane leavers understand that - certainly true on here.



    Just waiting for a proper leader, who actually knows how to negotiate, not the idiot who created the back stop, never leave the EU clause. Everything she touches turns to smelly brown stuff.

    If the EU wont negotiate our options are limited to tweaks or extremes. If they want to go no deal fine but parliament wont take that lying down.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192

    I thought about this the other day and reasoned the LDs will come a strong second, I'm talking 20%+. CUK couldn't have pulled off a much worse launch if they had hired Nick Timothy to run it and the greens historically have a much lower electoral roof than the LDs.



    On another note, if Farage wins is that some kind of record? Surely fastest time from founding a party to winning a national election.

    However well The Brexit Party do it will be reported as not good enough on here, the seeds to be able to proclaim whatever they achieve as relative failure have long been sown. If they win handsomely, I can see "but it will mean nothing if they don't go on to win the Peterborough by election..."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @felix said:
    > > @saddo said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    > >
    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > There are so many on here convinced that the EU is waiting for another leader so that they can give them the Brexit that so many apparently want. May achieved a little bit more than Cameron with her deal. It honestly does not get any better than that. Most sane leavers understand that - certainly true on here.

    Anyone more leave than her simply brings on the Tory split and reduces the votes for any Brexit
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > No sign of either grandfather....
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > ...or Prince Charles.
    > >
    > > Prince Charles is in Germany.
    >
    > It comes to something when Prince Charles is used to try and repair our international reputation as a grown up civilised country.

    To be fair, he does have German heritage!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,921
    I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,648
    Harrison is good.
    :smile:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @felix said:
    >
    > > > @saddo said:
    >
    > > > > @Roger said:
    >
    > > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > There are so many on here convinced that the EU is waiting for another leader so that they can give them the Brexit that so many apparently want. May achieved a little bit more than Cameron with her deal. It honestly does not get any better than that. Most sane leavers understand that - certainly true on here.
    >
    >
    >
    > Just waiting for a proper leader, who actually knows how to negotiate, not the idiot who created the back stop, never leave the EU clause. Everything she touches turns to smelly brown stuff.
    >
    > If the EU wont negotiate our options are limited to tweaks or extremes. If they want to go no deal fine but parliament wont take that lying down.

    The EU have negotiated and we are left with several different options that each have their own downsides. We need to choose one. Trying to eliminate all the downsides just does not work however much people complain about them.

    If we dont want the backstop accept a hard border in NI, or a border between NI and rUK, or stay in CU&SM, or leave without a deal or remain. If people want parliament to have more sovereignty that involves making tough choices, not hoping the choices get miraculously better.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642
    edited May 8

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > > @saddo said:

    > > > @Roger said:

    > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.

    > >

    > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.

    >

    > And who might that be. The only reason she remains in place is the cabinet back her plus more than half her mps. Should that change things may be different but the idea someone, even anyone, could resolve the issues better is not at all obvious



    Brexiters live in a complete fantasy world. It is always the way of nationalists and fascists. They are the antithesis of the pragmatist.

    It keeps being repeated that Brexiteers are fascists, nationalists, nutters or whatever. There just aren't enough fascists and nationalists to go round. Not when we are dealing with 17 million voters The overwhelming majority of Brexiteers, just like Remainers, are moderates of the centre, the centre right and the centre left. Some of them are even pragmatists as well.

    (BTW do SNP just count as Nationalists or are they fascists as well).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @geoffw said:
    > Harrison is good.
    > :smile:

    Harry's son = Harrison geditt!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307

    On topic: No mention of the Green Party? A safer repository of Labour voters on holiday than LD or Chukkers plus the USP of actually standing for something other than BrexitRemain. Shat on the LDs last time too.

    I agree; I see it far more likely current Labour voters unsure about Corbyn will prefer an unashamedly ‘socialist’ alternative.

    I assume both the CUKs and the Lib Dem’s will get more media coverage though so we’ll have to see.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    > @geoffw said:
    > Harrison is good.
    > :smile:

    Sanderson is better
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @geoffw said:
    > > Harrison is good.
    > > :smile:
    >
    > Harry's son = Harrison geditt!

    This isn't bloody Iceland. We don't name people that way here!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,026
    > @kinabalu said:
    > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.

    I used to solidly vote Tory until a few years ago, then I voted Labour as a protest in the 2016 local elections and since then I have voted Con again in a GE and then LD last week! Once you have strayed once you re-evaluate the value of 'loyalty to a party'. I wish I had voted LD in the GE in 2017 as I don't support Brexit but was opposed to Corbyn, so voted Tory. I could vote Labour at any level but parliamentary at the moment. If Labour got another Blair in terms of policy I would probably join the party!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,447
    > @rottenborough said:
    > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
    >
    >

    Right now, I’m betting she just wants to get past Brown’s time in office. Shortest serving PM since Alec Douglas-Home doesn’t have a fab ring to it...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,221

    The EU have negotiated and we are left with several different options that each have their own downsides. We need to choose one. Trying to eliminate all the downsides just does not work however much people complain about them.

    If we dont want the backstop accept a hard border in NI, or a border between NI and rUK, or stay in CU&SM, or leave without a deal or remain. If people want parliament to have more sovereignty that involves making tough choices, not hoping the choices get miraculously better.

    Very well said.

    Like a new leader will somehow change the (intra-party) parliamentary arithmetic.

    May is as good as it's going to get.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642
    edited May 8

    > @Foxy said:

    > > @geoffw said:

    > > Harrison is good.

    > > :smile:

    >

    > Harry's son = Harrison geditt!



    This isn't bloody Iceland. We don't name people that way here!

    Snorri Snorrison is my favourite name of that genre.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,648

    > @Foxy said:

    > > @geoffw said:

    > > Harrison is good.

    > > :smile:

    >

    > Harry's son = Harrison geditt!



    This isn't bloody Iceland. We don't name people that way here!

    9th and 23rd presidents
    not to mention Harrison Ford who was president-once-removed.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,583
    I want to see an updated European Election poll to see if the Lib Dems have been given much of a boost from the local elections. They were struggling to break double figures before it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,091
    > @kinabalu said:
    > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.

    Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    > @algarkirk said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    >
    > > > @saddo said:
    >
    > > > > @Roger said:
    >
    > > > > Just watched PMQ's. Whatever we might think of TM she's a Goliath next to those Gollam like back stabbing shits sitting behind her. How she keeps her poise is a wonder to behold.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Didn't see it, but May is a disgrace. How blind, deaf and dumb does she have to be, to think she's the solution to Brexit. The country needs someone to pull us of the brown stuff her capitulation to the EU has created.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > And who might that be. The only reason she remains in place is the cabinet back her plus more than half her mps. Should that change things may be different but the idea someone, even anyone, could resolve the issues better is not at all obvious
    >
    >
    >
    > Brexiters live in a complete fantasy world. It is always the way of nationalists and fascists. They are the antithesis of the pragmatist.
    >
    > It keeps being repeated that Brexiteers are fascists, nationalists, nutters or whatever. There just aren't enough fascists and nationalists to go round. Not when we are dealing with 17 million voters The overwhelming majority of Brexiteers, just like Remainers, are moderates of the centre, the centre right and the centre left. Some of them are even pragmatists as well.
    >
    > (BTW do SNP just count as Nationalists or are they fascists as well).

    I guess the underlying issue is that Brexiteers are pulling in different directions, global free trade Britain, anti immigation Britain, or a statist Corbynite Britian. None of these proposals on their own would get much more than 25% support in the country, but loosely combined they can achieve a small majority.

    As soon as details and trade offs in policies are required then the Brexit plans fall apart, this is why Brexiteers tend to sound like very unpragmatic as they are searching for unicorns that dont exist to bring it back together.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828
    Scott_P said:
    It’s a lovely picture. HMQ’s face lights up when she smiles and it is touching to see her smiling at her great grand-child. Archie is a lovely name. I like slightly old-fashioned eccentric names.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    Shades of Riverdale, I think - a presumed redhead called Archie?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,468
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > Prince Archie?
    > >
    > > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?
    >
    > They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.

    As I'm sure malc will confirm, erchie is Glesga for full arsed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,892
    Archie. Great name.

    For a dog.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    > @SandyRentool said:
    >
    > >
    > > Harry's son = Harrison geditt!
    >
    > This isn't bloody Iceland. We don't name people that way here!

    That does sound terribly, well, Brexiteer of you.

    This is the C21st and Archie is a transatlantic mixed-race son of an American actress.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,648
    On topic, Euro elections
    "Second place though might be going too far." [for LibDems]
    I don't think so if they get their branding right. After all they have always been the party for Europe. Conservatives will be third and Labour will be deservedly fourth at best.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    edited May 8
    Finding it very hard to work out who to vote for, hopefully someone campaigns well. Leaning green but also considering LibDems and Tories!

    Tories - sympathy vote, think Mays deal is roughly fair and sensible even if would prefer remain. Imagine the Tory/Brexit vote ratio will be viewed by the media as important and main preference is to vote anti ERG who are both dim and plain wrong.

    LibDems - closest to my viewpoints in theory, but very disappointed with their performances in parliament and lack of original, radical plans to tackle the issues in the UK. We need to be bold and we need people who can lead and persuade, not seen that from them yet.

    Greens - I dont agree with many of their policies but think the environmental message is heard by the other parties when the Greens do well, so most likely to lead to any changes in govt policy, as well as approving of their EU stance and willingness to try to lead and persuade.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,119
    > @TOPPING said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Indeed. Not a Brit among them.

    Harry is very definitely British. Quintessentially so.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,596
    Archie Harrison. Honestly! Common as muck, that pair. Do they even know how to Royal? Oh, I can't even... :(
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    > @algarkirk said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    >

    >
    > It keeps being repeated that Brexiteers are fascists, nationalists, nutters or whatever. There just aren't enough fascists and nationalists to go round. Not when we are dealing with 17 million voters
    >

    Which we're not. Betcha there aren't 17 million of them now.
This discussion has been closed.