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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given The Brexit party looks almost a certainty for the Euros

13

Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    Don’t they have anything new to say?

    Monarchy = Socialism?
    Perhaps you should make a Korea out of winding up Hyufd and Sandy?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think the LDs might get second place at the Euros with about 18%.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > Polls close in just over an hour in South Africa.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://www.news24.com/Elections/
    > >
    > > Least surprising election result in the world

    I'd consider voting ANC this time round in SA, some of the opposition are outright anti white fascists.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "Educating Archie" will soon be a task bestowed upon Eton.



    "We're a normal family - we'll just be sending our son to the local school." Which, when you live in Windsor....

    Eton originally turned the boys down - took some fast work in the background to make it happen
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @AndyJS said:
    > I think the LDs might get second place at the Euros with about 18%.

    They will do well to exceed 12%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Pulpstar said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @Jonathan said:

    >

    > > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?

    >

    >

    >

    > He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think.

    >

    > How?



    Dark money, russian bots, red buses that sort of thing.

    Pulpstar said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @Jonathan said:

    >

    > > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?

    >

    >

    >

    > He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think.

    >

    > How?



    Dark money, russian bots, red buses that sort of thing.

    Ok. None of that explains his success or his appeal.

    Try again.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?
    >
    >

    Pim Fortuyn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pim_Fortuyn
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    >

    > Don’t they have anything new to say?



    I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...

    It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.

    The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    > @Jonathan said:

    > Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?

    >

    >



    Pim Fortuyn



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pim_Fortuyn

    Barry Goldwater?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @The_Taxman said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Pim Fortuyn
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pim_Fortuyn

    And without assassination?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There is so much in this article I agree with



    https://tinyurl.com/yyq3ochu



    "People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."



    "It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."



    Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.



    It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.

    Also the same spilt that caused the damage three civil wars
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
    > >
    > > Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them.
    > >
    > > They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
    >
    > The trick with these 'characters' is that their diagnosis of the problems/concerns is generally quite good, perhaps more acute than more conventional politicians. Spotting things that others miss.
    >
    > Where it goes wrong is that their solutions are utterly catastrophic.
    >
    > The challenge for other politicians is to recognise the problems, without legitimising the solutions.
    >
    > No-one, to date, has pulled that off.

    If you recognise the problem but offer no solution you just end up like Howard Beale at the end of Network
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Friedman:

    "We need a Republican third-party candidate who won’t just primary Trump but will get on the general election ballot and challenge him in 2020 in all 50 states — but do it from his right, not from the center."


    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/opinion/trump-2020.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    >
    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.

    I agree. If baby Windsor can learn anything from his father it’s that today’s society is very accepting of gingers.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    (Archie rather than say Archibald seems very odd to me.)

    LDs don't stand a chance of second place in my view. If someone can get BF to stick the market up you can try to rob me of many, many pounds should I be wrong.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited May 2019
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    >
    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.

    I think you are probably correct that race is not a problem with normal people but since when was the Royal family normal! I mean even the new babies father called one of his friends "Paki" within the last 15 years!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    >
    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.

    Brexit was won with xenophobic lies and Labour seems paralysed by anti-Semitism. So I’m afraid you are absurdly complacent.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    >
    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.

    Thank goodness racism is confined to fringe groups like the police
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    >

    > Don’t they have anything new to say?



    I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...

    What twaddle. Diana came from a family that been in royal service for generations. She was not an outsider in any sense. She came to grief because there was insufficient love between her and Charles and virtually no shared interests. No marriage will survive that, let alone one freighted with such expectations in such an environment. And she was far too immature for marriage, her own parents were bonkers and the Windsors were too slow to provide support.

    The Royal Family seem to have learnt from that experience in the way that they welcomed in Sophie Wessex and the Middleton lass and now Meghan. The latest child will be fine and the whole family will become progressively less important over the years. What they need to avoid is turning themselves into celebrities or over-playing the identity card.

    The younger royals could do with looking at the example of Princess Anne, still working her socks off, and remember that there is a country beyond London and the Cotswolds and Norfolk. A lot more visits to and involvement in the less glamorous parts of the country would not go amiss. Plus a lot more work. They are a touch lazy. That does not sit well with the extremely privileged life they enjoy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Labour will finish second, their tribal vote is second to none.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Jonathan said:

    Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?

    That’s like the dog which didn’t bark - they’re forgotten because they didn’t make a lasting impact. One could make a case for Le Pens (various) though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    ydoethur said:

    On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    Don’t they have anything new to say?

    Monarchy = Socialism?
    Perhaps you should make a Korea out of winding up Hyufd and Sandy?
    That would be Pusan it a little bit!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    <b>South Africa</b>

    Polls have just closed although counting is normally pretty slow and obviously it will be a big win for the ANC (2014: ANC 66%, DA 22, EFF 6)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3b0f_T4iSQ

    https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html

    Thanks

    DC
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    ydoethur said:

    On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    Don’t they have anything new to say?

    Monarchy = Socialism?
    Perhaps you should make a Korea out of winding up Hyufd and Sandy?
    That would be Pusan it a little bit!
    Face it Sunil, you just have no Seoul...

    (I knew I'd get you back somehow!)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    >
    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.

    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    >
    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.

    In general, I agree. Marriage between people of different races is not unusual.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092


    The polls so far have had them between 34-43% combined, would be happy to have a bet at over/under 30% for Lab & Con combined at evens?

    No thanks.
    How do you know they dont care about it? What if they support Corbyns Brexit? Or Mays Brexit? How do we vote for those? How do you know green brexiteers arent still voting Green as they think climate change is the most important issue on the planet?
    "Corbyn's Brexit" is not Brexit as he wants exactly the same benefits as membership of the EU (!!) and May's is a weak and demeaning form of Brexit that involves following EU rules without any say in them.
    This allocating the votes to one side and adding them up is all nonsense, people will vote for all sorts of different reasons, if it is so important to know where the people stand the only way to find out is to ask them.
    My point was that the EU elections can be seen as a surrogate "People's Vote". Indeed that is how I shall intrepret it.

    Apols for the tardy response, but life intervened!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Princess Anne, still working her socks off

    No doubt a heavy schedule, hardly taxing work though, and she does enjoy the odd benefit or two.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > I think the LDs might get second place at the Euros with about 18%.
    >
    > They will do well to exceed 12%.

    Ooo I'll take that bet... What price?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    Don’t they have anything new to say?

    Monarchy = Socialism?
    Perhaps you should make a Korea out of winding up Hyufd and Sandy?
    That would be Pusan it a little bit!
    Face it Sunil, you just have no Seoul...

    (I knew I'd get you back somehow!)
    Still you're Inchon your way to a good pun!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    > @geoffw said:
    > The polls so far have had them between 34-43% combined, would be happy to have a bet at over/under 30% for Lab & Con combined at evens?
    >
    > No thanks. How do you know they dont care about it? What if they support Corbyns Brexit? Or Mays Brexit? How do we vote for those? How do you know green brexiteers arent still voting Green as they think climate change is the most important issue on the planet?
    >
    > "Corbyn's Brexit" is not Brexit as he wants exactly the same benefits as membership of the EU (!!) and May's is a weak and demeaning form of Brexit that involves following EU rules without any say in them. This allocating the votes to one side and adding them up is all nonsense, people will vote for all sorts of different reasons, if it is so important to know where the people stand the only way to find out is to ask them.
    >
    > My point was that the EU elections can be seen as a surrogate "People's Vote". Indeed that is how I shall intrepret it.
    >
    > Apols for the tardy response, but life intervened!

    Corbyn's Brexit and Schrodinger's Cat have certain parallels.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    Sean_F said:

    Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.

    A month ago that would have passed as a European Election Poll
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    tlg86 said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @Casino_Royale said:

    >

    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?

    >

    >

    >

    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...

    >

    > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.

    >

    > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.



    I agree. If baby Windsor can learn anything from his father it’s that today’s society is very accepting of gingers.

    The Duchess of Sussex’s estranged father has said that he hopes his grandson will “serve with dignity”, as he sent his best wishes to his daughter.
    Thomas Markle, 74, congratulated his daughter with a statement issued from his coastal retirement bungalow near the Mexican city of Tijuana.
    He was not named on the official list of those informed by the royal couple, meaning that he most likely found out from the news reports – as he did when the Duchess of Sussex announced her pregnancy. That time, he learnt via a radio report, as he was in a Tijuana traffic jam.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/05/06/royal-baby-thomas-markle-says-hopes-grandson-will-serve-dignity/

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Anecdata, but the only European election material I've received so far has been from the Brexit Party. I'm in Scotland, if that makes any difference.

    ditto
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @isam said:
    > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
    >
    > A month ago that would have passed as a European Election Poll

    Bad times.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    > @Cicero said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > I think the LDs might get second place at the Euros with about 18%.
    > >
    > > They will do well to exceed 12%.
    >
    > Ooo I'll take that bet... What price?

    Really? You think they'll beat Labour? Interesting...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Sean_F said:
    > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.

    If Labour can't get a lead now, when can they?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @DoubleCarpet said:
    > <b>South Africa</b>
    >
    > Polls have just closed although counting is normally pretty slow and obviously it will be a big win for the ANC (2014: ANC 66%, DA 22, EFF 6)
    >
    > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3b0f_T4iSQ
    >
    > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
    >
    > Thanks
    >
    > DC
    >

    Thanks DC. It'll be big news if the ANC drops below 50%.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Cicero said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > I think the LDs might get second place at the Euros with about 18%.
    > >
    > > They will do well to exceed 12%.
    >
    > Ooo I'll take that bet... What price?

    I am saying that if the LDs exceed 12% , they will have done well!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @DoubleCarpet said:
    > > <b>South Africa</b>
    > >
    > > Polls have just closed although counting is normally pretty slow and obviously it will be a big win for the ANC (2014: ANC 66%, DA 22, EFF 6)
    > >
    > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3b0f_T4iSQ
    > >
    > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
    > >
    > > Thanks
    > >
    > > DC
    > >
    >
    > Thanks DC. It'll be big news if the ANC drops below 50%.

    I remember the 1994 election results coming in and the ANC got something like 65% of the vote! Mind you Mandela was a one off leader. He was exceptional!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
    >
    > If Labour can't get a lead now, when can they?

    But Panelbase last had them 9% ahead.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    testing
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    > @algarkirk said:
    > testing

    1,2. 1,2
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
    > >
    > > If Labour can't get a lead now, when can they?
    >
    > But Panelbase last had them 9% ahead.

    The internals of the Brexit party vote might work toward Labour efficiency up here.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
    > >
    > > If Labour can't get a lead now, when can they?
    >
    > But Panelbase last had them 9% ahead.

    That poll is pretty dated, now. It also gave Labour a 12% lead for local elections.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,055
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Labour can hold Peterborough? My hunch is that it'll be won by either the Brexit Party or the Tories.

    Yes, I think they can hold on, on a reduced percentage against divided opposition.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
    > > >
    > > > If Labour can't get a lead now, when can they?
    > >
    > > But Panelbase last had them 9% ahead.
    >
    > That poll is pretty dated, now. It also gave Labour a 12% lead for local elections.

    A week old would be before the locals
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    > @ydoethur said:
    > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    > Monarchy = Socialism?
    >
    > Perhaps you should make a Korea out of winding up Hyufd and Sandy?

    Not getting into that again this evening!

    I've been to South Korea. The most surprising thing was that people drive like psychos.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Labour can hold Peterborough? My hunch is that it'll be won by either the Brexit Party or the Tories.

    Yes, I think they can hold on, on a reduced percentage against divided opposition.
    Crossover in Peterborough


  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited May 2019
    Brexit Party candidate for Peterborough is Mike Greene, life long tory and star of Secret Millionaire.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2019
    Some suggestions on Vote UK that Brexit Party has selected a'local celebrity' for the by election.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    > @ydoethur said:

    > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.

    >

    > Don’t they have anything new to say?

    >

    > Monarchy = Socialism?

    >

    > Perhaps you should make a Korea out of winding up Hyufd and Sandy?



    Not getting into that again this evening!



    I've been to South Korea. The most surprising thing was that people drive like psychos.

    You've got to be Kimming me!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    justin124 said:

    Some suggestions on Vote UK that Brexit Party has selected a'local celebrity' for the by election. The name of Andy Bell has been mentioned. .

    Hopefully not Erasure's Andy Bell!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    How low do you have to stoop to become the MP for Peterborough?

    The Peterborough MPs since 1997 have been:

    Helen Clark (an egomaniacal nutter), Stewart Jackson (a rude & unpleasant fool), Fiona Onasanya (a convicted fraudster).

    We're looking for someone to continue this sequence.

    Difficult though it seems, at each stage the voters of Peterborough replaced a poor MP with someone worse.

    If (as seems possible) the Brexit Party's Unity Rees-Mogg wins, then it will nicely continue the pattern.

    Edit; What do we know of Mike Greene, who appears to have the nod in front of Annuziata?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > https://www.twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1126205953064546312
    >
    >
    >
    > A real man of the people.
    Council house boy that done good.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    edited May 2019
    James Forsyth thinks TM will go for a second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill next Thursday because there will be a three-line whip on a "general" debate then.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-theresa-may-bring-her-brexit-bill-back-to-parliament-next-week/

    I'm not sufficiently au fait with parliamentary procedures to understand this or its implications. But it seems 'hope springs eternal',
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    A video has emerged that shows a Free Presbyterian minister criticising the DUP for selecting Alison Bennington to stand in the council elections.
    Ms Bennington, the DUP's first openly gay politician, was elected to Antrim and Newtownabbey Council on Friday.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-48205618
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    So, thinking it's time to focus on the cricket season...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Some suggestions on Vote UK that Brexit Party has selected a'local celebrity' for the by election. The name of Andy Bell has been mentioned. .
    >
    > Hopefully not Erasure's Andy Bell!

    It was suggested - but turned out to be a false rumour.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited May 2019

    Council house boy that done good.

    Just because someone is not from wealth doesn't mean they are able to sympathise for those who weren't successful.

    I know plenty of people with council estates to success stories who think everyone who didn't make it is lazy and deserves their poverty.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    Council house boy that done good.

    Just because someone is not from wealth doesn't mean they are able to sympathise for those who weren't successful.

    I know plenty of people with council estates to success stories who think everyone who didn't make it is lazy and deserves their poverty.
    I’m sure we won’t have to wait long until the thirst for dirt has been sated
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Brexit documentary on BBC 4 now...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    The lads at the Sun seem to be in a good place.

    https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1126038415919788032

    So glad that Brexit is nothing to do with backward looking, Blitz spirit bollox.

    'Indeed the new fly-on-the-wall EU documentary is a revealing portrait of the pompous, sneering, undemocratic bureaucrats 17.4million of us voted to leave: mocking Brexit, our country, even our “war spirit”. That’s right, the war spirit that served us well as we helped to liberate Europe from Nazi tyranny.'
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    p.s. not a bad pic of our leader.


  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > So, thinking it's time to focus on the cricket season...

    I’m thinking we win the Europa and the Super Cup and claim to be European champions a bit like when Scotland claimed to be world champions after beating England in 1967.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Brexit documentary on BBC 4 now...

    thanks Sandy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?


    Huey Long?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > https://www.twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1126205953064546312

    Someone completely outside the political scene and local. Good pick.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451
    > @geoffw said:
    > The polls so far have had them between 34-43% combined, would be happy to have a bet at over/under 30% for Lab & Con combined at evens?
    >
    > No thanks. How do you know they dont care about it? What if they support Corbyns Brexit? Or Mays Brexit? How do we vote for those? How do you know green brexiteers arent still voting Green as they think climate change is the most important issue on the planet?
    >
    > "Corbyn's Brexit" is not Brexit as he wants exactly the same benefits as membership of the EU (!!) and May's is a weak and demeaning form of Brexit that involves following EU rules without any say in them. This allocating the votes to one side and adding them up is all nonsense, people will vote for all sorts of different reasons, if it is so important to know where the people stand the only way to find out is to ask them.
    >
    > My point was that the EU elections can be seen as a surrogate "People's Vote". Indeed that is how I shall intrepret it.
    >
    > Apols for the tardy response, but life intervened!

    No worries about the speed of the response!

    I may agree with you that Corbyns Brexit is not achieveable but that is not the point, others will disagree and the point of an election is for everyone to be able to express their view, some will undoubtedly want to support Corbyns Brexit.

    Who gets to decide what votes count for which views? What is stop each vested interest defining the count so that their view does best? A no dealer might equally argue we have already decided to leave so the count should be Brexit vs Labour + Tories to see how we Brexit, the others are wasted votes on something already decided. An anti no dealer might argue no deal is bonkers and the count should be Lab+Tory vs Remain parties as they are the only responsible actions.

    As a country we are split very closely, and it will split differently if you ask Remain vs Deal or Remain vs No Deal or Deal vs No Deal or a 3 way split. Some of those might come down to 1 or 2% differences between the options.

    The idea that it is possible to get an accurate understanding of where the country is from the Euro elections is as impossible as Corbyns brexit.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Mike Greene on paper seems a brilliant candidate. I didn't believe they would select Farage or Galloway or Rees Mogg and I hoped the new party were better than that. It certainly shows there are a few brains in the background.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    GIN1138 said:

    > @brokenwheel said:

    >





    Someone completely outside the political scene and local. Good pick.
    Joined twitter in May 2019!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > So, thinking it's time to focus on the cricket season...

    I usually try to drop in on the final day of a test match but that might be difficult if it's the Ashes this year.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    > @Brom said:
    > Mike Greene on paper seems a brilliant candidate. I didn't believe they would select Farage or Galloway or Rees Mogg and I hoped the new party were better than that. It certainly shows there are a few brains in the background.

    Indeed. This is a very different and much more formidable outfit to UKIP IMO.

    Tories in particular should be very, very worried about where this is all going.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Some suggestions on Vote UK that Brexit Party has selected a'local celebrity' for the by election. The name of Andy Bell has been mentioned. .
    >
    > Hopefully not Erasure's Andy Bell!

    He's from Peterborough originally IIRC. They were on Top of the Pops 1987 the other day on BBC4.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    > @Omnium said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > Princess Anne, still working her socks off
    >
    > No doubt a heavy schedule, hardly taxing work though, and she does enjoy the odd benefit or two.
    >
    >

    Of course. But she's the most hardworking of all the royals, puts those younger than her to shame and seems to have some concept that, with all the privilege, comes duty and obligation. I am not at all sure that the younger ones really understand that and that it means doing lots of unglamorous stuff in unglamorous places day in day out.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    > > https://www.twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1126205953064546312
    >
    > Someone completely outside the political scene and local. Good pick.

    As a life long Tory , how likely is he to appeal to Labour voters?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    I cannot believe Spurs are neshing out of playing Liverpool in the Champions League final.

    Spurs are doomed aren't they?

    I mean when was the last time a side was 3 nil behind on aggregate in a Champions League Semi and still qualified for the final?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @justin124 said:
    >
    > As a life long Tory , how likely is he to appeal to Labour voters?

    Tony Balir managed it rather well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > >
    > > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > I should imagine that the new baby
    > >
    > > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    > >
    > > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.
    >
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > >
    > > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    > >
    > > It might just be me but I think most normal people got over race years ago. It’s now only an issue amongst the fringiest of the fringes or amongst the very old generations.
    > >
    > > The issues we are facing today are cultural ones that are clashing with the validity of individual identities and what that means for societies, communities and nations. Which is a different question.
    >
    > In general, I agree. Marriage between people of different races is not unusual.

    Races, yes. Cultures, not necessarily.

    It's much easier to imagine a marriage between a black man and white woman, for example, than it is a Muslim woman and a white man, although the latter still do occur.

    In fact, I'd say a litmus test of any true level of integration is that relationships and intermarriage between any group is not an issue.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
    >
    >
    >
    > I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
    >
    > What twaddle. Diana came from a family that been in royal service for generations. She was not an outsider in any sense. She came to grief because there was insufficient love between her and Charles and virtually no shared interests. No marriage will survive that, let alone one freighted with such expectations in such an environment. And she was far too immature for marriage, her own parents were bonkers and the Windsors were too slow to provide support.
    >
    > The Royal Family seem to have learnt from that experience in the way that they welcomed in Sophie Wessex and the Middleton lass and now Meghan. The latest child will be fine and the whole family will become progressively less important over the years. What they need to avoid is turning themselves into celebrities or over-playing the identity card.
    >
    > The younger royals could do with looking at the example of Princess Anne, still working her socks off, and remember that there is a country beyond London and the Cotswolds and Norfolk. A lot more visits to and involvement in the less glamorous parts of the country would not go amiss. Plus a lot more work. They are a touch lazy. That does not sit well with the extremely privileged life they enjoy.

    I think Princess Anne is the best of the lot. Not forgetting HMQ set a very high standard.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > > > Yougov have just released their latest poll (albeit a week old) Con 29%, Lab 29%, Brexit 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Others 14%.
    > > > >
    > > > > If Labour can't get a lead now, when can they?
    > > >
    > > > But Panelbase last had them 9% ahead.
    > >
    > > That poll is pretty dated, now. It also gave Labour a 12% lead for local elections.
    >
    > A week old would be before the locals

    I'd expect to see a poll boost for the Lib Dems, although that may already be showing up in the 13% figure.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    @noneoftheabove
    Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    I am so sick of people from the Brexit party saying that they are going to rebuild trust in democracy. They quote the 17.4 million people as if all those people had voted for the particular Brexit Farage and co now want, assume that none of those people have changed their mind and are mightily afraid of asking them whether they do in fact want the particular type of Brexit which Farage wants to impose on us.

    Eugh.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > Brexit Party candidate for Peterborough is Mike Greene, life long tory and star of Secret Millionaire.

    I think the odds are too short.

    Odds on seems overkill to me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    I'll take credit for this comeback by Spurs.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > A video has emerged that shows a Free Presbyterian minister criticising the DUP for selecting Alison Bennington to stand in the council elections.
    > Ms Bennington, the DUP's first openly gay politician, was elected to Antrim and Newtownabbey Council on Friday.
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-48205618

    The voters of Glengormley urban have been possessed by the devil. They need our prayers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    AndyJS said:

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > Some suggestions on Vote UK that Brexit Party has selected a'local celebrity' for the by election. The name of Andy Bell has been mentioned. .

    >

    > Hopefully not Erasure's Andy Bell!



    He's from Peterborough originally IIRC. They were on Top of the Pops 1987 the other day on BBC4.

    Yes, he is from Peterborough.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    All going off at Ajax!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Brom said:
    > > Mike Greene on paper seems a brilliant candidate. I didn't believe they would select Farage or Galloway or Rees Mogg and I hoped the new party were better than that. It certainly shows there are a few brains in the background.
    >
    > Indeed. This is a very different and much more formidable outfit to UKIP IMO.
    >
    > Tories in particular should be very, very worried about where this is all going.

    His business skills are not so good though:

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/people/peterborough-s-secret-millionaire-s-food-stores-chain-goes-into-administration-1-7455559
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    geoffw said:

    @noneoftheabove
    Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.

    p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @The_Taxman said:
    >
    > His business skills are not so good though:
    >
    > https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/people/peterborough-s-secret-millionaire-s-food-stores-chain-goes-into-administration-1-7455559

    It is not entirely clear from that report what the whole story is & whether Green is to blame.

    But, you are right it may have the capacity to damage him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    > @geoffw said:
    > @noneoftheabove
    > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.
    >
    > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.

    If he was just a (Belgian) bloke down the pub I reckon he'd be quite fun.

    But, when you get him onto his pet subject - European federalism, which unfortunately is his day job - he comes across as the dogmatic foam-flecked ideologue he really is.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @The_Taxman said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Brom said:
    > > > Mike Greene on paper seems a brilliant candidate. I didn't believe they would select Farage or Galloway or Rees Mogg and I hoped the new party were better than that. It certainly shows there are a few brains in the background.
    > >
    > > Indeed. This is a very different and much more formidable outfit to UKIP IMO.
    > >
    > > Tories in particular should be very, very worried about where this is all going.
    >
    > His business skills are not so good though:
    >
    > https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/people/peterborough-s-secret-millionaire-s-food-stores-chain-goes-into-administration-1-7455559

    Just because he could not save an already failing business does not mean his business skills are no good.

    He could have taken the job having been asked to reduce the costs and see what he could sell of the business to leave a core that could have survived. That may well have been impossible and not be known until it was tried.
This discussion has been closed.