> I haven't looked at the issue he has "resigned" over.
>
> If as he says it is raking over existing or extant evidence to bring back soldiers to court then he has a point. He is also right in saying there's barely a soldier who doesn't want those who break the law to face the consequences.
>
> A bit of digging is in order.
>
> I think it’s basically historical prosecutions on marginal evidence that sometimes takes 3-4 years to investigate while elderly men are under caution
You could say much the same about some other historical prosecutions. How can evidence and witnesses from decades ago be accurate? Perhaps we need a statute of limitations on such things.
The example I was thinking of was how badly FM Lord Bramell was treated but decided not to suggest as bound to be accused of false equivalence!
While May has outlived predictions of her demise up to now, I think it really will be the end after the Euro elections.
She has no authority and her word is no longer trustworthy. She has no new ideas of how to move things forward. She is not in a position to call a GE.
Any successor will be in a tough position but they will at least come at Brexit with a fresh perspective and a (limited) stock of good will. And they will be able to call a GE (risky though that is)
Microsoft bought Nokias mobile business, the result was mass redundancies, so by your theory Bill Gates is a crap business person?
Bill Gates left Microsoft in 1999/2000. His position was taken over by Steve Ballmer (2000-2014) who was shit, then by Satya Nadella (2014-present), who is much better. The person in charge of Microsoft when it bough Nokia was Ballmer, whose ass was only saved because Xbox and Kinect were widely popular but who otherwise made a series of stupid decisions, which is why your phone runs Android not Windows.
> I haven't looked at the issue he has "resigned" over.
>
> If as he says it is raking over existing or extant evidence to bring back soldiers to court then he has a point. He is also right in saying there's barely a soldier who doesn't want those who break the law to face the consequences.
>
> A bit of digging is in order.
>
> I think it’s basically historical prosecutions on marginal evidence that sometimes takes 3-4 years to investigate while elderly men are under caution
You could say much the same about some other historical prosecutions. How can evidence and witnesses from decades ago be accurate? Perhaps we need a statute of limitations on such things.
The example I was thinking of was how badly FM Lord Bramell was treated but decided not to suggest as bound to be accused of false equivalence!
But yes a statute of limitations would make sense
Seriously, a statute of limitations for murder?! No. Absolutely not.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through > > So, until the sun explodes? Longer, I expect she would move No 10 to a different planet
> @viewcode said: > Microsoft bought Nokias mobile business, the result was mass redundancies, so by your theory Bill Gates is a crap business person? > > Bill Gates left Microsoft in 1999/2000. His position was taken over by Steve Ballmer (2000-2014) who was shit, then by Satya Nadella (2014-present), who is much better. The person in charge of Microsoft when it bough Nokia was Ballmer, whose ass was only saved because Xbox and Kinect were widely popular but who otherwise made a series of stupid decisions, which is why your phone runs Android not Windows.
Bill Gates was Chairman of the Board when MSFT bought the Nokia business.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through > > And if the WA does not pass? December? Can she make it to 2020?
Potentially yes as a majority of Tory MPs are terrified of No Deal and her being succeeded by a hard Brexiteer and so she will survive any VONC. In fact her fate is more likely to be in the hands of Macron if he vetoes further extension in October than Tory MPs, if he does not May could stay and we could remain in this EU Limbo right up until 2022
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through > > And if the WA does not pass? December? Can she make it to 2020?
Even if all other attempts to get her to stand down of her own volition fail, she'll be able to face a no confidence vote in December 2019.
It seems ridiculous to even think she could last that long, after what will probably be a true shellacking in the Euros, a mutinous parliamentary party, losing supporters from both extreme sides of the party and a majority in name only, given the state of relations with the DUP. But getting this far has been ridiculous enough. Still, garethofthevale is right I think in that she can only survive for so long facing all she does and lacking authority or ideas.
> @TGOHF said: > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through > > Or is dragged out under medication like Gordon Brown.
> @TGOHF said: > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through > > Or is dragged out under medication like Gordon Brown.
I have a strong dislike of Gordon Brown but to say he was on medication and dragged out is not really accurate. He did some really dirty tricks including reducing the rate of pay for the role of PM as his last act in office (Spiteful). I loathe the man and think he is one of the worst PMs we have ever had. But he walked out with his family, admittedly some time after the election results had been released. On a slightly more humorous side I am surprised you have not mentioned the turkey baster in his removal from office!
> @nico67 said: > How long will the Tory Labour talks charade last . > > I mean what’s to discuss. Yes or no to a Customs Union .
It'll last as long as Labour want to have fun with the Tories. Not to suggest the Tories may not be being obstructive or unhelpful, but at the end of the day they are the ones who are desperate for a deal, while Labour are not, so the latter are free to enjoy publicly stating the Tories are not to be trusted even as they then go in for another day of maybes.
> Microsoft bought Nokias mobile business, the result was mass redundancies, so by your theory Bill Gates is a crap business person?
>
> Bill Gates left Microsoft in 1999/2000. His position was taken over by Steve Ballmer (2000-2014) who was shit, then by Satya Nadella (2014-present), who is much better. The person in charge of Microsoft when it bough Nokia was Ballmer, whose ass was only saved because Xbox and Kinect were widely popular but who otherwise made a series of stupid decisions, which is why your phone runs Android not Windows.
Bill Gates was Chairman of the Board when MSFT bought the Nokia business.
Well yes, but that's not operational responsibility. Ballmer was CEO.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through > > > > So, until the sun explodes? > Longer, I expect she would move No 10 to a different planet >
I've given her leeway to compromise, but I refuse to be in a customs union with the moon of Europa.
Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll (up to 18% in the Midlands and Wales and 16% in the South) in 3rd and picking up 23% of 2017 Tory voters with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each. LDs also up to 13% picking up 11% of 2017 Labour voters
> I haven't looked at the issue he has "resigned" over.
>
> If as he says it is raking over existing or extant evidence to bring back soldiers to court then he has a point. He is also right in saying there's barely a soldier who doesn't want those who break the law to face the consequences.
>
> A bit of digging is in order.
>
> I think it’s basically historical prosecutions on marginal evidence that sometimes takes 3-4 years to investigate while elderly men are under caution
You could say much the same about some other historical prosecutions. How can evidence and witnesses from decades ago be accurate? Perhaps we need a statute of limitations on such things.
The example I was thinking of was how badly FM Lord Bramell was treated but decided not to suggest as bound to be accused of false equivalence!
But yes a statute of limitations would make sense
Seriously, a statute of limitations for murder?! No. Absolutely not.
No
But if there is amnesty on one side it should be reciprocated. There is a reason why a veil has been drawn over the past
Crazy as that poll may or may not be, it does illustrate what seems to be a continued Labour belief (which in fairness I share to some extend, if not to the 29% level), namely that while Lab dropping support is not great, so long as they drop less than the Tories it will work out to some degree.
> @kle4 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine. > > Well don't leave me in suspense, what was the answer?
It's suspected that he drinks beer in public and wine in private in order to come across as a man of the people. But I remember watching a TV documentary about him in which he was drinking wine most of the time.
> @Gardenwalker said: > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104 > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
Microsoft bought Nokias mobile business, the result was mass redundancies, so by your theory Bill Gates is a crap business person?
Bill Gates left Microsoft in 1999/2000. His position was taken over by Steve Ballmer (2000-2014) who was shit, then by Satya Nadella (2014-present), who is much better. The person in charge of Microsoft when it bough Nokia was Ballmer, whose ass was only saved because Xbox and Kinect were widely popular but who otherwise made a series of stupid decisions, which is why your phone runs Android not Windows.
That's not really right though. Things that are now seen as Nadella's successes started life under Ballmer. Ballmer was in charge when Azure was developed and when Office shifted to a subscription model. Both of which have been extremely succesful. With hindsight Ballmer's real "mistake" was trying to have it all, it might have been a better long term bet to pursue the new services with more vigour and spend less effort on the consumer products. Of course if you had argued for that around 2010, when the whole world was going googly-eyed about the iPhone, people would have said you were nuts.
> @kle4 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine. > > Well don't leave me in suspense, what was the answer?
> @AndyJS said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104 > > > > > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here. > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
Smart move. Local man. Not a politician. Well known. Ticks. Lifelong Tory? Big down marks. Need to win votes from both sides, can't be seen only a place for angry Tories to vent.
I agree with what you say but the candidate has not been elected yet! I suspect Labour will be harder to oust than many give credit. It will be the third time in a month the voters have been to the polls in Peterborough. I think some voter fatigue will set in there. The parties with machines will do better. The Brexit Party has no machine or canvass records.
> @dixiedean said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20 > > > > Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him. > > > > The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right. > > Smart move. Local man. Not a politician. Well known. Ticks. > Lifelong Tory? Big down marks. Need to win votes from both sides, can't be seen only a place for angry Tories to vent. To take the seat from Labour he will mainly need Tory votes, plus if Labour voters feel that strongly about Leave they will vote Brexit Party anyway
> @AndyJS said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104 > > > > > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here. > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election.
I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election.
> @Harris_Tweed said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104 > > > > > > > > > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here. > > > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority. > > I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election. > > I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election.
Only if we have left the EU by then, if not the Brexit Party momentum will only grow, on this new poll the Brexit Party are already 3% higher than UKIP got even in 2015
> @The_Taxman said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20 > > > > Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him. > > > > The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right. > > I agree with what you say but the candidate has not been elected yet! I suspect Labour will be harder to oust than many give credit. It will be the third time in a month the voters have been to the polls in Peterborough. I think some voter fatigue will set in there. The parties with machines will do better. The Brexit Party has no machine or canvass records.
The Brexit Party held a huge rally in Peterborough last night and I imagine will have drawn in activists for the by election from that
> @AndyJS said: > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage.
Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are. Con 280 Lab 269 LD 22 SNP. 55 NI. 18 PC. 4 Green. 1 Brexit. 1 (Thurrock)
Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
> I haven't looked at the issue he has "resigned" over.
>
> If as he says it is raking over existing or extant evidence to bring back soldiers to court then he has a point. He is also right in saying there's barely a soldier who doesn't want those who break the law to face the consequences.
>
> A bit of digging is in order.
>
> I think it’s basically historical prosecutions on marginal evidence that sometimes takes 3-4 years to investigate while elderly men are under caution
You could say much the same about some other historical prosecutions. How can evidence and witnesses from decades ago be accurate? Perhaps we need a statute of limitations on such things.
The example I was thinking of was how badly FM Lord Bramell was treated but decided not to suggest as bound to be accused of false equivalence!
But yes a statute of limitations would make sense
Seriously, a statute of limitations for murder?! No. Absolutely not.
No
But if there is amnesty on one side it should be reciprocated. There is a reason why a veil has been drawn over the past
Moral equivalence between soldiers and terrorists? I’m surprised you take that view.
Re Bloody Sunday, the soldiers involved were told they would not be prosecuted if they told the truth. The soldier who is now being prosecuted refused that offer and repeatedly lied to the inquiry. If the evidence is there, it is absolutely right that he should be prosecuted.
Murder of innocent civilians, some of them barely out of childhood, by soldiers - followed by a cover up - was a disgraceful stain on the reputation of the British state and the British army and did much to encourage youngsters to join the IRA, thus prolonging the deaths and agony of that poor province.
I don’t think terrorists should be given an amnesty though I understand the reasons why it has been done.
You may find Patrick Radden Keefe’s book “Say Nothing” about the murder of Jean McConville, drawing a veil over the past and dealing with terrorists turned politicians interesting.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine. > > It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage.
How low do you think you pro-eu people can go?
Nigel Farage drinks his own urine. I mean really, any sensible pro-EU person would think this is a bit much.
> @Floater said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20 > > > > Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him. > > > > The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right. > > Do you have any evidence that Mr Greene is extreme right? > >
That may be why the split devekops, as Garage has leanings that way.
> @dixiedean said: > Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are. > Con 280 > Lab 269 > LD 22 > SNP. 55 > NI. 18 > PC. 4 > Green. 1 > Brexit. 1 (Thurrock) > > Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority.
The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections
> Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage.
I have investigated a few commodities brokers in my time. Bunch of crooks the lot of them. Wouldn’t understand ethics if it bit them on the arse.
Every time I see Farage I think of those people and my heart sinks at the idea that any sentient being would trust a spiv like him.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Harris_Tweed said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here. > > > > > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority. > > > > I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election. > > > > I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election. > > Only if we have left the EU by then, if not the Brexit Party momentum will only grow, on this new poll the Brexit Party are already 3% higher than UKIP got even in 2015
Agreed, but as a GE hoves into view, considerations of “who forms a government?” and “might I let remainers in?” will have an opposite if weaker drag. Also, if Nige finds 650 candidates, there’ll be a handful of rum coves who’ve been outed on social media for flogging a foreign maid or chaining their wives to the fridge.
Right now, responses are driven by the Screw You impulse, and NF is coming under little scrutiny because Mickey Mouse elections. A GE moving closer will flatten his trajectory, IMO
> @ralphmalph said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine. > > > > It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage. > > How low do you think you pro-eu people can go? > > Nigel Farage drinks his own urine. I mean really, any sensible pro-EU person would think this is a bit much. >
I am sorry if I offend! Levity is an acquired taste like Nigel Farage's favourite beverage.
Nigel is such a character though, game for a laugh and cheeky chap! Shame his 'successful businessman' parliamentry candidate in Peterborough is associated with a company that fell into administration. Even worse for the poor families who experienced a loss of income.
> @kle4 said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > Lammy asking a favour of Jezza. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1126236859686957056 > > > > > > > > Brilliant. > > > > And a very gracious tweet from dyed in the wool Gooner Jezza. > > Would have been funny to see him tweet "F*ck Liverpool" and see if that dented the loyalty of the red masses in the city one iota.
Would have gone down very well with the salt of the Earth local bluenoses. Norwegians and the Home Counties set may have been offended.
> @HYUFD said: > > @dixiedean said: > > Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are. > > Con 280 > > Lab 269 > > LD 22 > > SNP. 55 > > NI. 18 > > PC. 4 > > Green. 1 > > Brexit. 1 (Thurrock) > > > > Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW. > > In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority. > > The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections
Indeed. Not sure FPTP could survive such a result. It would have been better, far better, if Labour had not won a majority in 2005. And that was with 35%. Which is landslide territory these days!
> @GIN1138 said: > Johnny Mercer has resigned the Con whip claiming he "cannot support the governments legislative programme" > > So can I ask what legislative programme?
Yes. He will oppose everything not Brexit related. So über loyalist lobby fodder then.
> @Harris_Tweed said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Harris_Tweed said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here. > > > > > > > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority. > > > > > > I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election. > > > > > > I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election. > > > > Only if we have left the EU by then, if not the Brexit Party momentum will only grow, on this new poll the Brexit Party are already 3% higher than UKIP got even in 2015 > > Agreed, but as a GE hoves into view, considerations of “who forms a government?” and “might I let remainers in?” will have an opposite if weaker drag. Also, if Nige finds 650 candidates, there’ll be a handful of rum coves who’ve been outed on social media for flogging a foreign maid or chaining their wives to the fridge. > > Right now, responses are driven by the Screw You impulse, and NF is coming under little scrutiny because Mickey Mouse elections. A GE moving closer will flatten his trajectory, IMO
If we are still in the EU by the next general election even the Tories will effectively be Remainers
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are. > > > Con 280 > > > Lab 269 > > > LD 22 > > > SNP. 55 > > > NI. 18 > > > PC. 4 > > > Green. 1 > > > Brexit. 1 (Thurrock) > > > > > > Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW. > > > > In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority. > > > > The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections > > Indeed. Not sure FPTP could survive such a result. It would have been better, far better, if Labour had not won a majority in 2005. And that was with 35%. Which is landslide territory these days!
Certainly, Tories plus Labour combined on tonight's YouGov are on their lowest combined level since 1918
> > > Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are.
> > > Con 280
> > > Lab 269
> > > LD 22
> > > SNP. 55
> > > NI. 18
> > > PC. 4
> > > Green. 1
> > > Brexit. 1 (Thurrock)
> > >
> > > Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
> >
> > In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority.
> >
> > The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections
>
> Indeed. Not sure FPTP could survive such a result. It would have been better, far better, if Labour had not won a majority in 2005. And that was with 35%. Which is landslide territory these days!
Certainly, Tories plus Labour combined on tonight's YouGov are on their lowest combined level since 1918
Ideally the trend will continue and all the political parties will subside to 0% with something vaguely sane and competent emerging from the wreckage. They are all a shower of shit, an embarrassment.
Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
> @Dadge said: > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
I doubt the BBC will see it that way. Perma-Farage beckons.
> @oxfordsimon said: > Mercer's position is somewhat capricious. > > I appreciate that historical prosecutions are a difficult issue for all involved. There is a need for justice to be seen to be done - again for all involved. The passage of time makes that very hard to achieve - but it is right to try. > > He seems to want legislation to prevent prosecutions of any service personnel. And that is just not acceptable. > > If crimes were committed then it is right for that to be tested in the courts - no matter who committed them. > > There are no easy answers to complicated cases - but if the evidence exist, the charges must be laid and juries asked to reach a verdict. > > Blanket immunity does no-one any good.
> @Dadge said: > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > 2% in: > > > > ANC 51% > > DA 30% > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
> @HYUFD said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > 2% in: > > > > > > ANC 51% > > > DA 30% > > > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html > > > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014 > > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > 2% in: > > > > > > > > ANC 51% > > > > DA 30% > > > > > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html > > > > > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014 > > > > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994 > > I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Dadge said: > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored. > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored >
People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically)
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > 2% in: > > > > > > > > > > ANC 51% > > > > > DA 30% > > > > > > > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html > > > > > > > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014 > > > > > > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994 > > > > I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected. > > I'm not but have fun
> @ReggieCide said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Dadge said: > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored. > > > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored > > > > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically) >
Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > 2% in: > > > > > > > > > > > > ANC 51% > > > > > > DA 30% > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html > > > > > > > > > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014 > > > > > > > > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994 > > > > > > I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected. > > > > I'm not but have fun > > 4% in -> ANC 49%, DA 33%.
Certainly looks a good result for the DA and below par for the ANC although the latter should still win
> @HYUFD said: > > @ReggieCide said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Dadge said: > > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored. > > > > > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored > > > > > > > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically) > > > > Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now
Do try to keep a sense of proportion. Most people don’t care that much. Last VI GE poll I saw had Brexit on 15%. They won’t get many seats for that.
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @ReggieCide said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Dadge said: > > > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored. > > > > > > > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored > > > > > > > > > > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically) > > > > > > > Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now > > Do try to keep a sense of proportion. Most people don’t care that much. Last VI GE poll I saw had Brexit on 15%. They won’t get many seats for that.
They have more chance of winning the Peterborough by-election than winning any seats at a general election IMO.
> @Pulpstar said: > I'll be supporting Spuds in the final they gave us a shiny FA Cup in 87, with the lack of subsequent European football being down to errm err...
Along with fans of Oxford United, Luton Town, Wimbledon, Norwich City....
> @AndyJS said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @ReggieCide said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Dadge said: > > > > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored. > > > > > > > > > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored > > > > > > > > > > > > > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically) > > > > > > > > > > Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now > > > > Do try to keep a sense of proportion. Most people don’t care that much. Last VI GE poll I saw had Brexit on 15%. They won’t get many seats for that. > > They have more chance of winning the Peterborough by-election than winning any seats at a general election IMO.
The irony being that the new Brexit MP will almost certainly vote against us actually, you know, Bexiting.
Comments
> So Brighton, were you watching how it's done...?
Bet on Liverpool first premiership and Spurs first champions league win
> The football gods are giving us a hint, stay in Europe.
The whole of Europe left floundering as our also rans outdo them?
But yes a statute of limitations would make sense
> Spurs wiped the floor with Ajax.
>
> Spurs took Ajax to the cleaners.
>
> I'm here all night.
Where ‘here’ = “The Daily Star Subs Desk”
(Possibly when the real ones are in the pub watching the match
Underdog comeback stories are great but only in moderation.
She has no authority and her word is no longer trustworthy. She has no new ideas of how to move things forward. She is not in a position to call a GE.
Any successor will be in a tough position but they will at least come at Brexit with a fresh perspective and a (limited) stock of good will. And they will be able to call a GE (risky though that is)
> May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
So, until the sun explodes?
> May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
And if the WA does not pass? December? Can she make it to 2020?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
>
> So, until the sun explodes?
Longer, I expect she would move No 10 to a different planet
I mean what’s to discuss. Yes or no to a Customs Union .
> Microsoft bought Nokias mobile business, the result was mass redundancies, so by your theory Bill Gates is a crap business person?
>
> Bill Gates left Microsoft in 1999/2000. His position was taken over by Steve Ballmer (2000-2014) who was shit, then by Satya Nadella (2014-present), who is much better. The person in charge of Microsoft when it bough Nokia was Ballmer, whose ass was only saved because Xbox and Kinect were widely popular but who otherwise made a series of stupid decisions, which is why your phone runs Android not Windows.
Bill Gates was Chairman of the Board when MSFT bought the Nokia business.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
>
> And if the WA does not pass? December? Can she make it to 2020?
Potentially yes as a majority of Tory MPs are terrified of No Deal and her being succeeded by a hard Brexiteer and so she will survive any VONC. In fact her fate is more likely to be in the hands of Macron if he vetoes further extension in October than Tory MPs, if he does not May could stay and we could remain in this EU Limbo right up until 2022
> > @HYUFD said:
> > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
>
> And if the WA does not pass? December? Can she make it to 2020?
Even if all other attempts to get her to stand down of her own volition fail, she'll be able to face a no confidence vote in December 2019.
It seems ridiculous to even think she could last that long, after what will probably be a true shellacking in the Euros, a mutinous parliamentary party, losing supporters from both extreme sides of the party and a majority in name only, given the state of relations with the DUP. But getting this far has been ridiculous enough. Still, garethofthevale is right I think in that she can only survive for so long facing all she does and lacking authority or ideas.
> May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
>
> Or is dragged out under medication like Gordon Brown.
> @TGOHF said:
> May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
>
> Or is dragged out under medication like Gordon Brown.
I have a strong dislike of Gordon Brown but to say he was on medication and dragged out is not really accurate. He did some really dirty tricks including reducing the rate of pay for the role of PM as his last act in office (Spiteful). I loathe the man and think he is one of the worst PMs we have ever had. But he walked out with his family, admittedly some time after the election results had been released. On a slightly more humorous side I am surprised you have not mentioned the turkey baster in his removal from office!
> How long will the Tory Labour talks charade last .
>
> I mean what’s to discuss. Yes or no to a Customs Union .
It'll last as long as Labour want to have fun with the Tories. Not to suggest the Tories may not be being obstructive or unhelpful, but at the end of the day they are the ones who are desperate for a deal, while Labour are not, so the latter are free to enjoy publicly stating the Tories are not to be trusted even as they then go in for another day of maybes.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > May will stay until she gets the Withdrawal Agreement through
> >
> > So, until the sun explodes?
> Longer, I expect she would move No 10 to a different planet
>
I've given her leeway to compromise, but I refuse to be in a customs union with the moon of Europa.
> How long will the Tory Labour talks charade last .
>
> I mean what’s to discuss. Yes or no to a Customs Union .
Its pathetic. Even as a pretense that something is actually happening or that things might change it fools absolutely no one.
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/y0gyl0rpqd/Internal_190430_VI_Tracker_w.pdf
But if there is amnesty on one side it should be reciprocated. There is a reason why a veil has been drawn over the past
> Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
>
> https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104?s=20
Crazy as that poll may or may not be, it does illustrate what seems to be a continued Labour belief (which in fairness I share to some extend, if not to the 29% level), namely that while Lab dropping support is not great, so long as they drop less than the Tories it will work out to some degree.
Obv tiny numbers but ANC took 86% in entire municipality in 2014 (64K votes) and EFF 3%.
Is this the first Champions League final between sides who have never won their domestic league while the competition has existed?
> Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
Well don't leave me in suspense, what was the answer?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
>
> Well don't leave me in suspense, what was the answer?
It's suspected that he drinks beer in public and wine in private in order to come across as a man of the people. But I remember watching a TV documentary about him in which he was drinking wine most of the time.
> Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104
>
>
>
> Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
>
> Well don't leave me in suspense, what was the answer?
We could just make it up and pretend its Kia-Ora?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
>
> Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
>
> The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
Do you have any evidence that Mr Greene is extreme right?
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104
> >
> >
> >
> > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
>
> Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
35% on the other hand, that would be fair.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
>
> Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
>
> The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
Smart move. Local man. Not a politician. Well known. Ticks.
Lifelong Tory? Big down marks. Need to win votes from both sides, can't be seen only a place for angry Tories to vent.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
>
> Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
>
> The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
I agree with what you say but the candidate has not been elected yet! I suspect Labour will be harder to oust than many give credit. It will be the third time in a month the voters have been to the polls in Peterborough. I think some voter fatigue will set in there. The parties with machines will do better. The Brexit Party has no machine or canvass records.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > The football gods are giving us a hint.....
>
> ...you are better than Europe.
Exactly
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
> >
> > Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
> >
> > The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
>
> Smart move. Local man. Not a politician. Well known. Ticks.
> Lifelong Tory? Big down marks. Need to win votes from both sides, can't be seen only a place for angry Tories to vent.
To take the seat from Labour he will mainly need Tory votes, plus if Labour voters feel that strongly about Leave they will vote Brexit Party anyway
> Spurs wiped the floor with Ajax.
>
> Spurs took Ajax to the cleaners.
>
> I'm here all night.
I think I might be - that second half vs the first half.....
Madrid here I come (with any luck)
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104
> >
> >
> >
> > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
>
> Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election.
I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election.
> But if there is amnesty on one side it should be reciprocated. There is a reason why a veil has been drawn over the past
Which amnesty?
'There was no amnesty for crimes which had not been prosecuted'
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
> >
> > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
>
> I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election.
>
> I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election.
Only if we have left the EU by then, if not the Brexit Party momentum will only grow, on this new poll the Brexit Party are already 3% higher than UKIP got even in 2015
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1126213625914568705
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
> >
> > Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
> >
> > The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
>
> I agree with what you say but the candidate has not been elected yet! I suspect Labour will be harder to oust than many give credit. It will be the third time in a month the voters have been to the polls in Peterborough. I think some voter fatigue will set in there. The parties with machines will do better. The Brexit Party has no machine or canvass records.
The Brexit Party held a huge rally in Peterborough last night and I imagine will have drawn in activists for the by election from that
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1125831775534579715?s=20
> Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1126160365438611456?s=20
Con 280
Lab 269
LD 22
SNP. 55
NI. 18
PC. 4
Green. 1
Brexit. 1 (Thurrock)
Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
> The Brexit Party are holding more Trump style rallies in the Midlands and North over the next few days
>
> https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1126160365438611456?s=20
>
>
I know my Labour council is short of money, as per, but hosting that lot in a 40% council owned stadium. Shakes head.
Re Bloody Sunday, the soldiers involved were told they would not be prosecuted if they told the truth. The soldier who is now being prosecuted refused that offer and repeatedly lied to the inquiry. If the evidence is there, it is absolutely right that he should be prosecuted.
Murder of innocent civilians, some of them barely out of childhood, by soldiers - followed by a cover up - was a disgraceful stain on the reputation of the British state and the British army and did much to encourage youngsters to join the IRA, thus prolonging the deaths and agony of that poor province.
I don’t think terrorists should be given an amnesty though I understand the reasons why it has been done.
You may find Patrick Radden Keefe’s book “Say Nothing” about the murder of Jean McConville, drawing a veil over the past and dealing with terrorists turned politicians interesting.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
>
> It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage.
How low do you think you pro-eu people can go?
Nigel Farage drinks his own urine. I mean really, any sensible pro-EU person would think this is a bit much.
http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results/NPE#map=live
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1126216850130575364?s=20
> >
> > Nigel is a jealous master. Expect conflict again if there is an MP in the limelight and it isn't him.
> >
> > The only thing more fissile than the extreme left is the extreme right.
>
> Do you have any evidence that Mr Greene is extreme right?
>
>
That may be why the split devekops, as Garage has leanings that way.
> Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are.
> Con 280
> Lab 269
> LD 22
> SNP. 55
> NI. 18
> PC. 4
> Green. 1
> Brexit. 1 (Thurrock)
>
> Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority.
The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections
Does anyone give a flying fuck about Brexit anymore? Anyone with half a brain is glued to the football.
We are in Europe
> https://twitter.com/Coral/status/1126234316839636993
Tempted to put a few quid on Liverpool so that if they do win, it will mitigate the absolute unbearability of the Liverpool fans in the office.
And a very gracious tweet from dyed in the wool Gooner Jezza.
Every time I see Farage I think of those people and my heart sinks at the idea that any sentient being would trust a spiv like him.
> Lammy asking a favour of Jezza.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1126236859686957056
>
>
>
> Brilliant.
>
> And a very gracious tweet from dyed in the wool Gooner Jezza.
Would have been funny to see him tweet "F*ck Liverpool" and see if that dented the loyalty of the red masses in the city one iota.
> > @Harris_Tweed said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
> > >
> > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
> >
> > I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election.
> >
> > I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election.
>
> Only if we have left the EU by then, if not the Brexit Party momentum will only grow, on this new poll the Brexit Party are already 3% higher than UKIP got even in 2015
Agreed, but as a GE hoves into view, considerations of “who forms a government?” and “might I let remainers in?” will have an opposite if weaker drag. Also, if Nige finds 650 candidates, there’ll be a handful of rum coves who’ve been outed on social media for flogging a foreign maid or chaining their wives to the fridge.
Right now, responses are driven by the Screw You impulse, and NF is coming under little scrutiny because Mickey Mouse elections. A GE moving closer will flatten his trajectory, IMO
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Political analysis on Newsnight has sunk to the level of whether Nigel Farage prefers to drink beer or wine.
> >
> > It wouldn't surprise me if Farage drinks his own urine at home! He reminds me of Captain Rum in Blackadder. In the episode Potato he started drinking his own before the fresh water ran out! I cannot understand the appeal of Farage.
>
> How low do you think you pro-eu people can go?
>
> Nigel Farage drinks his own urine. I mean really, any sensible pro-EU person would think this is a bit much.
>
I am sorry if I offend! Levity is an acquired taste like Nigel Farage's favourite beverage.
Nigel is such a character though, game for a laugh and cheeky chap! Shame his 'successful businessman' parliamentry candidate in Peterborough is associated with a company that fell into administration. Even worse for the poor families who experienced a loss of income.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > Lammy asking a favour of Jezza.
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1126236859686957056
> >
> >
> >
> > Brilliant.
> >
> > And a very gracious tweet from dyed in the wool Gooner Jezza.
>
> Would have been funny to see him tweet "F*ck Liverpool" and see if that dented the loyalty of the red masses in the city one iota.
Would have gone down very well with the salt of the Earth local bluenoses. Norwegians and the Home Counties set may have been offended.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are.
> > Con 280
> > Lab 269
> > LD 22
> > SNP. 55
> > NI. 18
> > PC. 4
> > Green. 1
> > Brexit. 1 (Thurrock)
> >
> > Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
>
> In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority.
>
> The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections
Indeed. Not sure FPTP could survive such a result. It would have been better, far better, if Labour had not won a majority in 2005. And that was with 35%. Which is landslide territory these days!
So can I ask what legislative programme?
> Johnny Mercer has resigned the Con whip claiming he "cannot support the governments legislative programme"
>
> So can I ask what legislative programme?
Yes. He will oppose everything not Brexit related. So über loyalist lobby fodder then.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Harris_Tweed said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > > > Farage on Peston now with the Brexit Party already on 15% in a new YouGov general election poll in 3rd with the Tories and Labour on just 29% each
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1126192469677359104
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Interesting that Lab/SNP short of a majority here.
> > > >
> > > > Since they only have a combined 33% of the popular vote it would be a bit unfair if they did get an overall majority.
> > >
> > > I’m not sure it’s worth paying much attention to GE polls (specifically Farage’s score) until (a) the EU election is out of the way and probably (b) some growing clarity on when Brexit might happen.. particularly pre or post election.
> > >
> > > I don’t rule out Farage getting that much (or more), but it strikes me respondents are in full-on “screw you” mode for the EU elex, and I’d expect that to soften at least a little in a Westminster election.
> >
> > Only if we have left the EU by then, if not the Brexit Party momentum will only grow, on this new poll the Brexit Party are already 3% higher than UKIP got even in 2015
>
> Agreed, but as a GE hoves into view, considerations of “who forms a government?” and “might I let remainers in?” will have an opposite if weaker drag. Also, if Nige finds 650 candidates, there’ll be a handful of rum coves who’ve been outed on social media for flogging a foreign maid or chaining their wives to the fridge.
>
> Right now, responses are driven by the Screw You impulse, and NF is coming under little scrutiny because Mickey Mouse elections. A GE moving closer will flatten his trajectory, IMO
If we are still in the EU by the next general election even the Tories will effectively be Remainers
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Baxter gives different figures for that poll to the ones tweeted. For interest they are.
> > > Con 280
> > > Lab 269
> > > LD 22
> > > SNP. 55
> > > NI. 18
> > > PC. 4
> > > Green. 1
> > > Brexit. 1 (Thurrock)
> > >
> > > Which makes SNP + Lab 324. Majority of 5 assuming NI stays the same. FWIW.
> >
> > In reality with TIG (if they get reelected) and Labour rebels Corbyn will also need the LDs to form any working majority.
> >
> > The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections
>
> Indeed. Not sure FPTP could survive such a result. It would have been better, far better, if Labour had not won a majority in 2005. And that was with 35%. Which is landslide territory these days!
Certainly, Tories plus Labour combined on tonight's YouGov are on their lowest combined level since 1918
ANC 51%
DA 30%
https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
> Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
I doubt the BBC will see it that way. Perma-Farage beckons.
> Mercer's position is somewhat capricious.
>
> I appreciate that historical prosecutions are a difficult issue for all involved. There is a need for justice to be seen to be done - again for all involved. The passage of time makes that very hard to achieve - but it is right to try.
>
> He seems to want legislation to prevent prosecutions of any service personnel. And that is just not acceptable.
>
> If crimes were committed then it is right for that to be tested in the courts - no matter who committed them.
>
> There are no easy answers to complicated cases - but if the evidence exist, the charges must be laid and juries asked to reach a verdict.
>
> Blanket immunity does no-one any good.
A very good post. I totally agree.
> Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
> 2% in:
>
> ANC 51%
> DA 30%
>
> https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
> > @AndyJS said:
> > 2% in:
> >
> > ANC 51%
> > DA 30%
> >
> > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
>
> Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > 2% in:
> > >
> > > ANC 51%
> > > DA 30%
> > >
> > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
> >
> > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
>
> If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > 2% in:
> > > >
> > > > ANC 51%
> > > > DA 30%
> > > >
> > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
> > >
> > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
> >
> > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
>
> I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected.
I'm not but have fun
> > @Dadge said:
> > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
>
> If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
>
People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically)
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > 2% in:
> > > > >
> > > > > ANC 51%
> > > > > DA 30%
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
> > > >
> > > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
> > >
> > > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
> >
> > I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected.
>
> I'm not but have fun
4% in -> ANC 49%, DA 33%.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Dadge said:
> > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
> >
> > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
> >
>
> People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically)
>
Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > > 2% in:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ANC 51%
> > > > > > DA 30%
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
> > > > >
> > > > > Glad to see the centrist liberal DA coming second and up 8% on the 22% they got last time and the far left EFF well behind on 6% so far, although it looks like a clear ANC win if down on the 62% they got in 2014
> > > >
> > > > If the DA do get 30% that would be the highest share of the vote for a non ANC opposition party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid and universal suffrage in 1994
> > >
> > > I'm staying up for more results because it could turn out to be more interesting than expected.
> >
> > I'm not but have fun
>
> 4% in -> ANC 49%, DA 33%.
Certainly looks a good result for the DA and below par for the ANC although the latter should still win
> > @ReggieCide said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Dadge said:
> > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
> > >
> > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
> > >
> >
> > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically)
> >
>
> Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now
Do try to keep a sense of proportion. Most people don’t care that much. Last VI GE poll I saw had Brexit on 15%. They won’t get many seats for that.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ReggieCide said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Dadge said:
> > > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
> > > >
> > > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
> > > >
> > >
> > > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically)
> > >
> >
> > Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now
>
> Do try to keep a sense of proportion. Most people don’t care that much. Last VI GE poll I saw had Brexit on 15%. They won’t get many seats for that.
They have more chance of winning the Peterborough by-election than winning any seats at a general election IMO.
> I'll be supporting Spuds in the final they gave us a shiny FA Cup in 87, with the lack of subsequent European football being down to errm err...
Along with fans of Oxford United, Luton Town, Wimbledon, Norwich City....
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @ReggieCide said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Dadge said:
> > > > > > Those Brexiters who are getting all excited about the rise of the Brexit Party really don't understand politics. What they are doing is putting themselves in a political ghetto where they can be ignored.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and gain the Peterborough by election from Labour they certainly cannot be ignored
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > People do speak crap as it it's certainty (metaphorically)
> > > >
> > >
> > > Under FPTP the Brexit Party will prevent either party winning a majority on Yougov tonight and indeed if they repeated their Euro elections polling of 30% at a general election the Brexit Party could even win most seats with both the Tories and Labour already under 30% even on the Yougov general election poll now
> >
> > Do try to keep a sense of proportion. Most people don’t care that much. Last VI GE poll I saw had Brexit on 15%. They won’t get many seats for that.
>
> They have more chance of winning the Peterborough by-election than winning any seats at a general election IMO.
The irony being that the new Brexit MP will almost certainly vote against us actually, you know, Bexiting.