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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor

Given the precarious a position TMay is in at the moment we have to assume that we are fairly close to a CON leadership contest when the membership will choose not just a new party leader but of course the next PM. Last week Rory Stewart announced that he would contest the leadership once a vacancy occurs and today another prominent figure, Esther McVey, has declared that she too will be amongst the contenders.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,221
    edited May 9
    1. Tough one for Rory if this is a crypto beauty contest.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,015
    More candidates required
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,537
    Popcorn. McVey v McDonnell.

    Runners and riders in Peterborough might be up soon.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    Excellent punt at 170-1.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,948
    edited May 9
    McVey is far too normal. The members want someone ideological and pure. A gold plated headbanger.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    edited May 9
    She’s doomed.

    Nobody in the Parliamentary Conservative Party wants to put Philip Davies in Number 10.

    He’s such a media tart and seems to enjoy winding up people.

    So that’s why she’ll lose.

    Is for the same reason I think Gove won’t win, loudmouth spouses are hindrances.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,062
    It is hard to know with some of these contenders whether they are really running to be PM or whether they are just looking to raise their profile and get a plum cabinet job.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @Jonathan said:
    > McVey is far too normal. The members want someone ideological and pure. A gold plated headbanger.

    She's definitely on the brexity side of brexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,341
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    > RoI fights against the hard border by introducing passport checks
    >
    >
    > https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/i-was-caught-completely-unaware-man-travelling-on-bus-from-belfast-to-dublin-says-he-was-asked-for-his-passport-on-the-border-38094805.html

    If I recall correctly, the rules of the Common Travel Area allow for authorities to ask for your passport if they suspect you are not a British or Irish (or Jersey, etc) citizen.

    But I must admit, I'm pretty surprised they'd ask on the bus.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,341
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > RoI fights against the hard border by introducing passport checks
    > >
    > >
    > > https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/i-was-caught-completely-unaware-man-travelling-on-bus-from-belfast-to-dublin-says-he-was-asked-for-his-passport-on-the-border-38094805.html
    >
    > If I recall correctly, the rules of the Common Travel Area allow for authorities to ask for your passport if they suspect you are not a British or Irish (or Jersey, etc) citizen.
    >
    > But I must admit, I'm pretty surprised they'd ask on the bus.

    Although the story is even more curious: it was an Irishman who was asked, it was the police asking for passports (not immigration officials), it wasn't actually at the border, and I haven't heard any corroboration.

    So, I'm going to call "not yet" on the Irish government imposing passport checks at the border.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,468
    Who could forget All-Heart McVey's assertion that rape victims having to verify their rape to the DWP to justify benefits could prove therapeutic for them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > > RoI fights against the hard border by introducing passport checks
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/i-was-caught-completely-unaware-man-travelling-on-bus-from-belfast-to-dublin-says-he-was-asked-for-his-passport-on-the-border-38094805.html
    > >
    > > If I recall correctly, the rules of the Common Travel Area allow for authorities to ask for your passport if they suspect you are not a British or Irish (or Jersey, etc) citizen.
    > >
    > > But I must admit, I'm pretty surprised they'd ask on the bus.
    >
    > Although the story is even more curious: it was an Irishman who was asked, it was the police asking for passports (not immigration officials), it wasn't actually at the border, and I haven't heard any corroboration.
    >
    > So, I'm going to call "not yet" on the Irish government imposing passport checks at the border.

    the legal situation is they carry them out for people not born in the UK and Ireland . There was a case a few years back of a Chinese student who was threathened with deportation as she had gone on a shopping trip to Belfast and he visa terms said she was to stay in the Republic.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @williamglenn said:
    >

    Lab -6%, Brexit +9%, Con -4%, Lib Dem +2%, Change -1%, Greens unchanged, UKIP -2%.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009
    > @williamglenn said:
    >

    A result like that would be a further setback for the leaver cause.

    And have the added advantage of taking a lot of wind out of Farage's sails.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    I'd be surprised if that poll proved accurate. Be good for Labour, though.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 9
    That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;


    Con 14%
    Lab 26%
    BRX 28%
    LD 11%
    CHUK 8%
    UKIP 2%
    SNP/PC 4%
    Green 6%
    Other 1%

    https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
  • sladeslade Posts: 772
    Two local by-elections today. A Conservative defence in East Lothian and a Residents defence in Havering.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @isam said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > 1.16 to lay 🤔

    Brexit party deserve favoritism but they're too short at 1.16 I think.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    > @brokenwheel said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
    >
    > Poll
    > Con 14%
    > Lab 26%
    > BRX 28%
    > LD 11%
    > CHUK 8%
    > UKIP 2%
    > SNP/PC 4%
    > Green 6%
    > Other 1%
    >
    > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/

    What's the difference between the two?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
    > >
    > > Poll
    > > Con 14%
    > > Lab 26%
    > > BRX 28%
    > > LD 11%
    > > CHUK 8%
    > > UKIP 2%
    > > SNP/PC 4%
    > > Green 6%
    > > Other 1%
    > >
    > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
    >
    > What's the difference between the two?

    Not much.
  • sladeslade Posts: 772
    My postal ballot for the European elections arrived today. However so far I have only had election leaflets from the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party. What has happened to the others? On a related matter the Brexit leaflet has identified photographs of 8 candidates, including Farage - but none of them are standing in my region. Is this legal and what are the electoral expenses consequences?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,359
    > @brokenwheel said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
    >
    >
    > Con 14%
    > Lab 26%
    > BRX 28%
    > LD 11%
    > CHUK 8%
    > UKIP 2%
    > SNP/PC 4%
    > Green 6%
    > Other 1%
    >
    > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/

    MRP - why not? From a polling POV, I don't see how it isn't just another of the filtering and weighting techniques that all polls employ, and secondly , it had a pretty decent record at GE17 in the hands of YouGov.

    AIUI, it does take some processing to do, but even so I'm surprised not to have seen it a little more.

    Or am I missing something.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259
    Asking for a friend... what is MRP?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,994
    > @slade said:
    > My postal ballot for the European elections arrived today. However so far I have only had election leaflets from the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party. What has happened to the others? On a related matter the Brexit leaflet has identified photographs of 8 candidates, including Farage - but none of them are standing in my region. Is this legal and what are the electoral expenses consequences?

    I have had no literature to date.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    edited May 9
    RobD said:

    Asking for a friend... what is MRP?

    Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification.

    The polling methodology that allowed YouGov to predict a hung parliament in 2017.

    Edit - Linky here. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris

    maybe Cameron can give him some advice


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/le-conseil-constitutionnel-valide-le-projet-de-referendum-contre-la-privatisation-d-adp-20190509
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    McVey cracked and backed May's deal last time. Priti is still in the ideologically pure camp and should be a more appealing option for the ERG ultras.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259

    RobD said:

    Asking for a friend... what is MRP?

    Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification.

    The polling methodology that allowed YouGov to predict a hung parliament in 2017.

    Edit - Linky here. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works
    Much obliged :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    > France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
    >

    Tell Sid.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,891
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > I'd be surprised if that poll proved accurate. Be good for Labour, though.

    Indeed. It is a sign of how far down the rabbit hole we have gone the past couple of months however, that you and I can see Labour on 27% as "good".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    edited May 9
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
    > >
    >
    > Tell Sid.

    I suspect Sid currently works at Orly and wears a yellow vest at weekends
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,359
    edited May 9
    > @RobD said:
    > Asking for a friend... what is MRP?

    Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification

    Read here:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works

    It is basically how YouGov flagged Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury as probable Labour gains at GE17, something for which they were substantially ridiculed on here and elsewhere.

    I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies, accordingly.
  • crandlescrandles Posts: 58
    > @anothernick said:
    >
    > A result like that would be a further setback for the leaver cause.

    Why? Brexit plus tory plus UKIP =43% so only need 7 of Labour's 27% to get to a majority.

    Can LD get the message out to those fed up with brexit that brexit negotiations are set to continue a long time unless large number vote lib dems? I am hoping and expecting them to at least beat tories.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,510
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @slade said:
    > > My postal ballot for the European elections arrived today. However so far I have only had election leaflets from the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party. What has happened to the others? On a related matter the Brexit leaflet has identified photographs of 8 candidates, including Farage - but none of them are standing in my region. Is this legal and what are the electoral expenses consequences?
    >
    > I have had no literature to date.

    postal vote - I hope it's nothing serious 😉
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259
    Pro_Rata said:

    > @RobD said:

    > Asking for a friend... what is MRP?



    Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification



    Read here:



    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works



    It is basically how YouGov flagged Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury as probable Labour gains at GE17, something for which they were substantially ridiculed on here and elsewhere.



    I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies accordingly.

    Thanks. Still can’t believe K&C fell :(
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @williamglenn said:
    >


    14%? What the Tories would give for 14% in the Euros right now. Mere humiliation as opposed to outright contempt.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,217
    > @Pro_Rata said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
    > >
    > >
    > > Con 14%
    > > Lab 26%
    > > BRX 28%
    > > LD 11%
    > > CHUK 8%
    > > UKIP 2%
    > > SNP/PC 4%
    > > Green 6%
    > > Other 1%
    > >
    > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
    >
    > MRP - why not? From a polling POV, I don't see how it isn't just another of the filtering and weighting techniques that all polls employ, and secondly , it had a pretty decent record at GE17 in the hands of YouGov.
    >
    > AIUI, it does take some processing to do, but even so I'm surprised not to have seen it a little more.
    >
    > Or am I missing something.

    If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be

    Labour: 27%
    Brexit Party: 26%
    Remain 25%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    edited May 9
    Brexit party out to 1.17 already

    <b> On the slide</b>
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    > @logical_song said:
    > > @Pro_Rata said:
    > > > @brokenwheel said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Con 14%
    > > > Lab 26%
    > > > BRX 28%
    > > > LD 11%
    > > > CHUK 8%
    > > > UKIP 2%
    > > > SNP/PC 4%
    > > > Green 6%
    > > > Other 1%
    > > >
    > > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
    > >
    > > MRP - why not? From a polling POV, I don't see how it isn't just another of the filtering and weighting techniques that all polls employ, and secondly , it had a pretty decent record at GE17 in the hands of YouGov.
    > >
    > > AIUI, it does take some processing to do, but even so I'm surprised not to have seen it a little more.
    > >
    > > Or am I missing something.
    >
    > If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be
    >
    > Labour: 27%
    > Brexit Party: 26%
    > Remain 25%

    You cannot assume that all Green voters would vote for a Remain candidate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > >
    >
    >
    > 14%? What the Tories would give for 14% in the Euros right now. Mere humiliation as opposed to outright contempt.

    Honestly I think position is more relevant for them now than percentage - if they can hold on to third that's a good result (comparitively) when by some polls they are not far off from 6th if a few percent move against them further!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    RobD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    > @RobD said:

    > Asking for a friend... what is MRP?



    Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification



    Read here:



    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works



    It is basically how YouGov flagged Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury as probable Labour gains at GE17, something for which they were substantially ridiculed on here and elsewhere.



    I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies accordingly.

    Thanks. Still can’t believe K&C fell :(
    I did warn you about the pound shop Gordon Brown and how toxic she really was.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > McVey cracked and backed May's deal last time. Priti is still in the ideologically pure camp and should be a more appealing option for the ERG ultras.

    Yes, as much as the Tory base hate the deal I find it hard to accept those who cracked, up to and including Boris, would be as popular as some thing, as compared to the pure. Boris at least might have sufficient momentum, and be up against a bland nothing like Hunt or Javid, but in terms of narrowing down the hard leaver options others might struggle if they backed the deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    > @logical_song said:
    >
    > If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be
    >
    > Labour: 27%
    > Brexit Party: 26%
    > Remain 25%

    The England only version of those numbers would be interesting. I suspect Labour would be behind Remain and Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @logical_song said:
    > > @Pro_Rata said:
    > > > @brokenwheel said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Con 14%
    > > > Lab 26%
    > > > BRX 28%
    > > > LD 11%
    > > > CHUK 8%
    > > > UKIP 2%
    > > > SNP/PC 4%
    > > > Green 6%
    > > > Other 1%
    > > >
    > > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
    > >
    > > MRP - why not? From a polling POV, I don't see how it isn't just another of the filtering and weighting techniques that all polls employ, and secondly , it had a pretty decent record at GE17 in the hands of YouGov.
    > >
    > > AIUI, it does take some processing to do, but even so I'm surprised not to have seen it a little more.
    > >
    > > Or am I missing something.
    >
    > If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be
    >
    > Labour: 27%
    > Brexit Party: 26%
    > Remain 25%

    Con 14
    Lab 26
    Brexit group 30
    Remain 29
    Other 1 ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > > 14%? What the Tories would give for 14% in the Euros right now. Mere humiliation as opposed to outright contempt.
    >
    > Honestly I think position is more relevant for them now than percentage - if they can hold on to third that's a good result (comparitively) when by some polls they are not far off from 6th if a few percent move against them further!

    Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,129
    edited May 9
    > @Pro_Rata said:
    > I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies, accordingly.

    How do they deal with shy pineapple pizza eaters?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259
    DavidL said:


    Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.

    A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @RobD said:
    > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
    >
    > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.

    Yep.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @RobD said:
    > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
    >
    > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.

    Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 945
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > > France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
    > > >
    > >
    > > Tell Sid.
    >
    > I suspect Sid currently works at Orly and wears a yellow vest at weekends

    He'll be Monsieur Sid Bertillon, who followed his Grandpa Jean and Dad Philippe into a job there. His uncle Alain is a policeman in the CRS and his aunt Marie-Claude is a teacher and local councillor for the Rassemblement National.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642

    > @williamglenn said:

    >





    A result like that would be a further setback for the leaver cause.



    And have the added advantage of taking a lot of wind out of Farage's sails.
    Explicit Remain parties getting 29% of the vote is a bit short of a remain landslide. All the voters know that Labour is all over the place, and inasmuch as its manifesto says anything, it doesn't say 'remain', and that a Labour vote is not a remain vote So I think caution in interpretation is needed.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,648
    Conservatives should help the Conservative Party by voting for the Brexit Party.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/only-a-vote-for-the-brexit-party-can-save-the-tories/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    If he's looking to wind May up that is a good effort.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
    > >
    > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
    >
    > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!

    Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,648
    See the notepad under Osborne's elbow – I wonder why.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > > @RobD said:
    > > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
    > > >
    > > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
    > >
    > > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!
    >
    > Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.

    Actually I think that was civility.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @geoffw said:
    > See the notepad under Osborne's elbow – I wonder why.

    He's a journalist these days. Maybe he wanted a quote or 2 he could use. Or he wants a new fireplace. Could be that, I suppose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259
    kle4 said:

    > @DavidL said:

    > > @kle4 said:

    > > > @RobD said:

    > > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.

    > > >

    > > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.

    > >

    > > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!

    >

    > Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.



    Actually I think that was civility.

    What the fck you on about?


    :p
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.

    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.

    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,359
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > @Pro_Rata said:
    > > I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies, accordingly.
    >
    > How do they deal with shy pineapple pizza eaters?

    I think they round them up, then divide by eight.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642
    edited May 9
    geoffw said:

    Conservatives should help the Conservative Party by voting for the Brexit Party.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/only-a-vote-for-the-brexit-party-can-save-the-tories/

    About right. In 2014 Tories voted for a then moderate UKIP in droves, and this proved in practice the only way of achieving a bit of democracy over a central sovereignty issue. Looks like the process needs a bit of a hand at the moment to remind parliament what their job is and what 2016 meant.

    Just how moderate and centrist this multi party movement of voters is, is clearly shown by the mass abandonment of UKIP once it turned into a ridiculous bunch of extremists.

    Moderate Brexit supporters don't take to platforms much, but they do turn out to vote. It's a great tradition in democracy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    Big_G remains loyal. Perhaps things are looking up?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    The difference is that Osborne was a grown up until he was sacked and became childish while Williamson never grew up
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @kle4 said:
    > > > > @RobD said:
    > > > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
    > > > >
    > > > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
    > > >
    > > > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!
    > >
    > > Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.
    >
    > Actually I think that was civility.

    Civility has had the full Ramsey Bolton treatment. And then some.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    My better half is voting for the Brexit Party. I find the idea of voting for Farage seriously difficult. I think I will abstain.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828
    Scott_P said:
    They won’t be discussing the weather.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    > >
    > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    > >
    > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > My better half is voting for the Brexit Party. I find the idea of voting for Farage seriously difficult. I think I will abstain.

    I will not vote for anthing that involves Farage and as TM has achieved a brexit deal I decided to stay loyal. The party needs loyalty right now
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 945
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > The difference is that Osborne was a grown up until he was sacked and became childish while Williamson never grew up

    So Williamson is a Lost Boy and Osborne was one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Joke party
    >
    >

    Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    > > >
    > > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    > > >
    > > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    > >
    > > My better half is voting for the Brexit Party. I find the idea of voting for Farage seriously difficult. I think I will abstain.
    >
    > I will not vote for anthing that involves Farage and as TM has achieved a brexit deal I decided to stay loyal. The party needs loyalty right now

    The party needs a lot of things Big_G. Whether one of them is loyalty to TM is debatable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Joke party
    >
    >

    That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,690
    Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,

    They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    > > > >
    > > > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    > > > >
    > > > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    > > >
    > > > My better half is voting for the Brexit Party. I find the idea of voting for Farage seriously difficult. I think I will abstain.
    > >
    > > I will not vote for anthing that involves Farage and as TM has achieved a brexit deal I decided to stay loyal. The party needs loyalty right now
    >
    > The party needs a lot of things Big_G. Whether one of them is loyalty to TM is debatable.

    I think she needs to stand down now in an orderly manner but my vote is for my party that needs to come through this as soon as possible
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,259

    > @TGOHF said:

    > Joke party

    >

    >





    Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
    Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218
    DavidL said:

    > @TGOHF said:

    > Joke party

    >

    >





    That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
    Perhaps it means they've done a deal with the LibDems and Greens.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    >
    > > Joke party
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
    >
    > Perhaps it means they've done a deal with the LibDems and Greens.

    Fantastic deal. We get to cease to exist and you get your moment in the sun. Yep, if I was a politician with a mortgage that's exactly what I would be thinking. Not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
    >
    > They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.

    Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,583


    Don't know what this means but the Lib Dems and Greens have local parties so had an alternative candidate ready, whilst ChUK obviously haven't at this stage.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @RobD said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    >
    > > Joke party
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
    >
    > Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.

    A formal merger must be coming sooner or later
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,709
    edited May 9
    No Change UK candidate in Peterborough? Bizarre. A party that doesn't want to fight elections.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @TGOHF said:
    > >
    > > > Joke party
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
    > >
    > > Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.
    >
    > A formal merger must be coming sooner or later

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @TGOHF said:
    > >
    > > > Joke party
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
    > >
    > > Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.
    >
    > A formal merger must be coming sooner or later

    Why would you offer them the dignity of an amalgamation? Let them apply for membership if they want. That way you can be a bit more selective about who you actually want.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. JS, be fair. They're consistent. No point asking the people. They'll only get it wrong. :p
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,497

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,583
    edited May 9
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
    > >
    > > They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.
    >
    > Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote

    Yes, it would have been counter productive for a remain alliance to stand in Peterborough as it would have greatly increased the chances of the Brexit Party getting a real breakthrough. Hence why the remain candidate pulled out probably.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,062
    > @Artist said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > > Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
    > > >
    > > > They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.
    > >
    > > Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote
    >
    > Yes, it would have been counter productive for a remain alliance to stand in Peterborough as it would have greatly increased the chances of the Brexit Party getting a real breakthrough. Hence why the remain candidate pulled out probably.

    A number of other candidates are standing on a specific remain banner though, including one from UKEUP and one from Common Good
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,403
    JohnO said:

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.
    I feel your pain.

    The way I see it, the fewer the votes Mrs May gets in the Euros is more succor for the bellends like Francois and Baker.

    So I have to vote Tory.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,596

    That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?).

    (Apologies if you already know this, but the other people in the class don't so it's worth repeating)

    MRP takes the responses to a poll, notes the characteristics of the people who responded (age, sex, location, etc), then from that it builds a model of the voting intention for many categories of people (so sixtysomething males in the Easy of England are 40% probable to vote Brexit, twentysomething women in London are 30% probable to vote LD, and so on). Since the number of people of each type is known for each constituency, you can apply the probabilities to those numbers and come up with an estimate of the vote.

    Since panel polls have large numbers of responses and statistical theory breaks down for self-selecting non-representative nonrandom panel responses, this modelling approach may be better than a conventional panel

    The unacknowledged problem is that it might not actually be better, or if it is then not consistently better. We haven't had much experience with them (for political purposes at least!) and the assumption that they are better is simply that, an assumption. I also point out that correct turnout assumptions will be vital for a good prediction, but God alone knows for certs what, say, the Brexit party turnout will be. So I'm worried... :(
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    > @JohnO said:
    >
    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.

    The usual place for the Conservatives (based on 2014) is third on the list, so you can put your X in the usual place and register a vote for the Greens with a clear conscience.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @JohnO said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    >
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    >
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.

    Maybe holding nose and x in right place is best response. TM time is very limited
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 9
    DavidL said:

    > @TGOHF said:

    > Joke party

    >

    >





    That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
    What an exciting, radical bunch they are! Breath of fresh air compared to the ‘old politics’ of standing for election
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,962
    I'm confused. Is it no "Change UK" candidate, or is it "No-Change UK" candidate?

    They should just pull out of the Euros too. A one-trick pony without the trick.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    >
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    >
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.
    >
    > I feel your pain.
    >
    > The way I see it, the fewer the votes Mrs May gets in the Euros is more succor for the bellends like Francois and Baker.
    >
    > So I have to vote Tory.

    But the more votes the Tories get the more May will think she can hang on just that bit longer. It really has to stop.
This discussion has been closed.