> @IanB2 said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't. > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
> @SquareRoot said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @logical_song said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't. > > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter. > > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand.
> > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > >
> > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > >
> > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > >
> > >
> > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> >
> > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
>
> ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
Interesting that we might be seeing the fading away of unthinking tribal voting behaviour like that amongst otherwise unpolitical people on both left and right.
> @DavidL said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @logical_song said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't. > > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter. > > > > Interesting that we might be seeing the fading away of unthinking tribal voting behaviour like that amongst otherwise unpolitical people on both left and right. > > Wise woman.
The Conservatives’ current message to the current absolute majority who think Brexit is a mistake is “just let us finish this deranged obsession we have and then we’ll get back to sensible government.” Any wonder that barely a quarter of the country is currently thinking of putting an X in their box at the next election? The wonder is that it is that high.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > And JohnO, TSE and Sean Fear, and probably myself, unhappy as we are. > > There are no good options in what is a very silly and pointless election.
So long as the Conservatives stay above 10% in polls, I'll vote for them. Below that, it becomes a wasted vote. IMHO, they'll manage a vote in the mid teens.
> @Roger said: > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
We live in bad, dangerous times. And there does seem to be some form of invisible force pulling us into the abyss.
> @Roger said: > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
> @HYUFD said: > > @Roger said: > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
The Brexit party does not want to implement the 2016 vote. It opposes the withdrawal agreement.
> @IanB2 said: > > @SquareRoot said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @logical_song said: > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > > > > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't. > > > > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter. > > > > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again? > > Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand.
The Tories face more of a threat from the Brexit Party if they never implement Brexit than from even a No Deal Brexit
> @Jonathan said: > > @Roger said: > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > We live in bad, dangerous times. And there does seem to be some form of invisible force pulling us into the abyss.
Maoism is dominant in the sense that what people want to believe is true is all important more than the reality of what is true. Most of political debate now is a contest between different varieties of make believe.
Partly because of the time in which I grew up, I blame Blair for this. He pandered to what he thought people wanted to hear, rather than made the case for what he thought was right. So the art of persuasion was lost from politics, and instead we have opinion dressed up as self-evident fact.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Roger said: > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Roger said: > > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > > > The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls > > The Brexit party does not want to implement the 2016 vote. It opposes the withdrawal agreement.
And the Commons has still refused to pass even the Withdrawal Agreement, Leaving the EU even with No Deal as the Brexit Party wants respects the Leave vote, staying in the EU and endlessly extending Article 50 as the Commons is currently doing does not.
Personally I think the better the Brexit Party does the more chance the Withdrawal Agreement has of passing as panicked Labour MPs from Leave seats end up voting for it but either way Withdrawal Agreement or no Withdrawal Agreement we must Leave the EU to respect the Brexit vote
My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
You tory leavers need to develop a more positive mental attitude. The voters can sense the despair and it's repellent. Are you a Fabrican or a Fabrican't?
Theresa May is facing renewed anger from Brexiteers after Tory European election leaflets included a link to a website that names and shames MPs who voted against her withdrawal deal.
In a move likely to further enrage them, the leaflet fails to say that an independent trading policy would be a benefit of Brexit.
The leaflet shows the party is effectively using the campaign to criticise the 34 Tory Brexiteers who call themselves the “Spartans” and the second referendum supporters who declined to back Mrs May’s deal in March, causing it to fall in the Commons.
> Partly because of the time in which I grew up, I blame Blair for this. He pandered to what he thought people wanted to hear, rather than made the case for what he thought was right. So the art of persuasion was lost from politics, and instead we have opinion dressed up as self-evident fact.
I don't agree with this at all. Blair had very definite ideas which he was more than willing to try to persuade hostile audiences about - remember his "masochism strategy" debating 6 hostile opponents of the war on TV, for instance. And it's easy to think in retrospect that the Good Friday Agreement and the social reforms were uncontroversial - they really were not. He was the best advocate of his generation, probably in my lifetime.
Where he in my opinion went wrong was to splurge too much of that persuasive power on some not very transformative projects (to put it kindly) like PFI. I'm very fond of Corbyn, as I've said, but I'd trade him for a Blair with Corbynite ideals in an instant.
> @HYUFD said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @SquareRoot said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @logical_song said: > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > > > > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > > > > > > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't. > > > > > > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter. > > > > > > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again? > > > > Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand. > > The Tories face more of a threat from the Brexit Party if they never implement Brexit than from even a No Deal Brexit
Very true. A Tory vote is for those who accept the Brexit reality and just want to move on with a broadly centre right program now.
So I was thinking of making a better Remainiac tactical vote site that says where you're probably just as good voting Green instead of LibDem. But now they've pissed me off with their bullshit:
> @IanB2 said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > Can't find any 'naming & shaming': > > > > > > > > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com > > > > > > > > EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal. > > > > > > Yup, it comes out like this: > > > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com/back-the-deal/WITH > > > > Blatant email address harvesting. > > Useful for the recipients, of all parties, as well, if they are organised. As a councillor I used to get batches of standard emails from such sites, particularly during elections, most commonly from cycling, environmental or animal welfare campaigns. It was a useful way of identifying voters interested in these particular issues, as well as their email addresses (with the appropriate small print included at the bottom of the reply to cover off the data retention issues).
Yes, I felt as an MP that it was useful for both sides. If I knew the email addresses of 500 constituents interested in green issues, say, I could write to them about those and avoid wasting their and my time writing to them about, say, the motor industry.
It's true that D'Hondt with small numbers of MEPs means that splitting the vote is costly.
However it doesn't follow that tactical voting is the answer. The opinion polls will mostly be too inaccurate to allow you to make accurate judgements as to what would be an effective tactical vote.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @SquareRoot said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @logical_song said: > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > > > > > > > > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't. > > > > > > > > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter. > > > > > > > > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again? > > > > > > Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand. > > > > The Tories face more of a threat from the Brexit Party if they never implement Brexit than from even a No Deal Brexit > > Very true. A Tory vote is for those who accept the Brexit reality and just want to move on with a broadly centre right program now.
A Tory vote is for Brexit with a Deal, a Brexit Party vote is for Brexit with No Deal and the longer it takes for the former to pass the Withdrawal Agreement the better the latter will do
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal. > > > > I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it. > > Look to the Leavers. It was opposed by pretty well all the non-payroll Leave MPs in the first meaningful vote and its converts since have been reluctant rather than zealots. The inability of Leavers to celebrate compromising (and now it is seen as an active ill by many Leavers) is what is scuppering Brexit.
Yet those Conservative MPs who opposed MV1 would have supported it two years earlier.
So what has happened in the intervening period ?
Its clearly something which didn't take place among PBers or even something they were aware was happening.
Maybe it used to look for allies. Seems to spend it's time now demanding purity and looking for traitors in it's own ranks while constantly undermining each other.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > However it doesn't follow that tactical voting is the answer. The opinion polls will mostly be too inaccurate to allow you to make accurate judgements as to what would be an effective tactical vote.
Well, without committing mathematics, in several of the regions LD/Green/CHUK will be lucky to get one seat so you only have to guess who's leading, which looks fairly clear right now, although you'd want to take a look at the polling later. So for those I think there's a very strong case to just go LD, if the polling holds as it is.
What I'd quibble with is London, SE, SW - in all of those Remain United are getting 2 seats for the LDs and losing the rest of the Green and CHUK votes; I think it would be better advice to say do what you prefer out of Green and LD.
Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
> > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> > >
> > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
> >
> > The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
>
> The Brexit party does not want to implement the 2016 vote. It opposes the withdrawal agreement.
And the Commons has still refused to pass even the Withdrawal Agreement, Leaving the EU even with No Deal as the Brexit Party wants respects the Leave vote, staying in the EU and endlessly extending Article 50 as the Commons is currently doing does not.
Personally I think the better the Brexit Party does the more chance the Withdrawal Agreement has of passing as panicked Labour MPs from Leave seats end up voting for it but either way Withdrawal Agreement or no Withdrawal Agreement we must Leave the EU to respect the Brexit vote
The Brexit Party has replaced No Deal as the threat of what will happen if MPs play silly buggers by trying to thwart the referendum result.
Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
Well for one thing Corbyn's backers tell us what a fantastic anti racist he is all the time so the idea he is ignorant of some pretty big nuances of anti semitism is not very credible, but also do you not remember Farage topping the Euros before? We have been in such a position for a long time. By all means panic and be upset that he leads the polls but in itself not a sign of the imminent end times.
Labour and the Tories can strike a deal, pass legislation, and make Farage winning the Euros pointless if they like
> @Roger said: > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
UKIP won the 2014 European elections too so this isn't anything new really.
Edit to add: the long-term trend is of the UK becoming a more tolerant society.
It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > Partly because of the time in which I grew up, I blame Blair for this. He pandered to what he thought people wanted to hear, rather than made the case for what he thought was right. So the art of persuasion was lost from politics, and instead we have opinion dressed up as self-evident fact. > > I don't agree with this at all. Blair had very definite ideas which he was more than willing to try to persuade hostile audiences about - remember his "masochism strategy" debating 6 hostile opponents of the war on TV, for instance. And it's easy to think in retrospect that the Good Friday Agreement and the social reforms were uncontroversial - they really were not. He was the best advocate of his generation, probably in my lifetime. > > Where he in my opinion went wrong was to splurge too much of that persuasive power on some not very transformative projects (to put it kindly) like PFI. I'm very fond of Corbyn, as I've said, but I'd trade him for a Blair with Corbynite ideals in an instant.
As far as I can tell your examples make my point. Blair never attempted to persuade people of the merits of the Iraq war. Instead we had nonsense about a 45 minute threat of WMD, so that the "debate" could be framed as opponents to the war putting the country at risk. The masochism strategy came later when Blair found that voters didn't want to forget the war.
Similarly with PFI. The merits, or otherwise, of this scheme were not debated in advance. It was used because building schools and hospitals was presented as self-evidently a good thing and Blair was not willing to try to persuade people of the merits of the necessary tax increases to fund the investment - so it was borrowed in the way that most hid the borrowing and most avoided the need to debate whether it was a good idea. He was only forced to defend it later, when criticism mounted.
With the Good Friday Agreement I do not remember any debate over whether it was the right thing to give up the UK claim to Northern Ireland. It was simply "This is peace. Peace is good." I'm on Blair's side for this example, but I can still see that he didn't really make a case for it.
It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
Weren't the main wearers of jackboots the Nazis who perpetrated the greatest crime against the J*ws. The very same J*ws who J*r*my C*rbyn is happy to see discriminated against in his Labour Party.
You invoking jackboots, ergo, is a teeny bit glass house-ish, Rog.
> @Roger said: > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
Repost this. Why not? [Because, FF43, you are a miserable EU ideologue, that's why not]
>Leave is a minority in the UK now and almost all of that group are in denial about the realistic options available. I don't see a good outcome for the Conservatives
....
The backstop is just the prerequisite. The actual negotiations are still to happen and there's much more to them than just Ireland.
CFP (equivalent) because access to UK waters is a high priority item for Denmark, Spain and France, all of whom have a veto over the arrangement; CAP because UK farmers won't get access to their only substantial export market without it; Customs Union because of the Northern Irish land border and because car manufacturers who are in a fragile state can't function without it; also because there are WTO rules about customs unions that are somewhat binary; accepting all in scope future EU rules and EUCJ oversight because the EU won't accept close UK engagement without them and won't change the way it does things to accommodate an ex member.
> @TOPPING said: > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
The bloke that told us that Tessy's deal was deffo, deffo going to pass for deffo says not to worry? Most reassuring.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Roger said: > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm. > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
> @Roger said: > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Roger said: > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm. > > > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut. > > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
> @TOPPING said: > The bloke that told us that Tessy's deal was deffo, deffo going to pass for deffo says not to worry? Most reassuring. > > It hasn't not passed yet, has it? > > It remains the least impossible thing available and I still see it passing. As for the "deffo, deffo, deffo" I think I gave the probabilities as: > > 1. WA - 85% > 2. Deal/Remain referendum - 15% > > I'd probably shift those to 80:20 now. > > And I think the only person who would be advised to fear @DavidL's wife is @DavidL.
@DavidL's wife is shackled by Scotland's boring & douce centralism. It's the roasters on last night's (& every other recent night's) QT I'm worried about.
Mr. Jonathan, in that regard I'm far more concerned about the far left, currently squatting on the Labour front bench, than the prospect of a Farage Government.
> @Jonathan said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @Roger said: > > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm. > > > > > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut. > > > > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has. > > > > Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
Implement the result of the 2016 referendum result, perhaps?
> @Sean_F said: > > @Roger said: > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > You would be laughed at. > > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler.
If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm.
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
>
> > >
>
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
>
> > >
>
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
>
> >
>
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
>
>
> I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
>
> And JohnO, TSE and Sean Fear, and probably myself, unhappy as we are.
>
> There are no good options in what is a very silly and pointless election.
The election has a lot of point. It demonstrates the intellectual bankruptcy of Leavers, who can oppose but cannot propose.
There's nothing new in the latter point. It's easy to moan, it's harder to produce an effective alternative which convinces all parties. See also anything to do with local government and local plans.
> @kyf_100 said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > > @Roger said: > > > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > > > > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm. > > > > > > > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut. > > > > > > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has. > > > > > > > > Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power. > > Implement the result of the 2016 referendum result, perhaps?
Farage and his cronies have opposed the attempts to leave.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Roger said: > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > You would be laughed at. > > > > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler. > > If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm. >
Heavens above, if you can't accept the view of someone who was an active member of a party led by Farage & intends voting for his current mob as unbiased and authoritative, where are we?
> @TOPPING said: > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too?
> @TOPPING said: > If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm. > > What harm is he causing? He wants a particular flavour of Brexit and is campaigning for it.
He stokes prejudice for his own political ends, he actively sows hostility and division and makes political debate and nuance impossible by using his communication talent to peddle populist lazy solutions.
Would be interesting to see where EU citizens have gone to live outwith the EU, given most British expats aren't in the EU but primarily the Anglosphere.
Mr. Jonathan, in that regard I'm far more concerned about the far left, currently squatting on the Labour front bench, than the prospect of a Farage Government.
Precisely. Besides Farage is just a shit-talker, Corbynistas are ideological in their hatred. They are FAR closer to what actually happened in the 1930s than just a bunch of populists.
Just like homophobic Republicans getting their cock sucked in the bogs, those who shout loudest about the misdeeds of others tend to be the worst offenders.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Roger said: > > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > > > You would be laughed at. > > > > > > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler. > > > > If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm. > > > > Heavens above, if you can't accept the view of someone who was an active member of a party led by Farage & intends voting for his current mob as unbiased and authoritative, where are we?
> @Roger said: > > @TOPPING said: > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > > > It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her. > > Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too? > > https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg
> It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
Worth remembering that at the very bottom, through the darkness, even though it was hard to find, was Hope.
I hope that Corbyn and Farage do not do too much more harm - they’ve done plenty already - before Hope is found.
He stokes prejudice for his own political ends, he actively sows hostility and division and makes political debate and nuance impossible by using his communication talent to peddle populist lazy solutions.
As opposed to other politicians who...
I mean I despise Nigel Farage but if you take out the poster episodes which I appreciate is a big ask (although no better or worse than the devil eyes of Blair and arguably a lot better than the anti-semitic Labour Michael Howard poster) and he is behaving no differently from any other politician.
Or are you just saying he is an effective rhetorician?
> It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
Worth remembering that at the very bottom, through the darkness, even though it was hard to find, was Hope.
I hope that Corbyn and Farage do not do too much more harm - they’ve done plenty already - before Hope is found.
But that was the worst thing about it, because all the things anyone would hope for had gone. Hope was therefore a cruel delusion.
Surely the better rhetorical touch would have been to reverse that - ie "do you think they're all David's Wives or could there be a smattering of Millwall supporters..."
But anyway in the era of a BBC presenter getting fired for tweeting a picture about the royal family I think we're miles away from worrying about those mass rallies you keep referring to.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Roger said: > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > You would be laughed at. > > > > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler. > > If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm. > I was responding to the comment about jackboots. If you're going to call someone a Nazi, you make yourself look hysterical, unless that person is actually a Nazi.
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
> Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too?
> @Sean_F said: > GDP up by 0.5% on the quarter, 1.8% y o y.
The Guardian say March was -0.1%, which would imply Jan+Feb was +0.6%. I know I ought not to bother with the monthly figures, but, annualised, the growth rate in the first two months was a healthy +3.7% (!)
> @Roger said: > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
How about mobilising against the threat by coming up with some solutions or even measures that will help on housing, social care, tackling obesity, modernising our economy and education systems to be ready for the next 50 years, protecting the environment?
> @GarethoftheVale2 said: > If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it. > > DELIVER BREXIT!
If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Sean_F said: > > GDP up by 0.5% on the quarter, 1.8% y o y. > > The Guardian say March was -0.1%, which would imply Jan+Feb was +0.6%. I know I ought not to bother with the monthly figures, but, annualised, the growth rate in the first two months was a healthy +3.7% (!)
Beautiful to see the contortions that make it possible for Farage to be so hapless that the 2016 win wasn’t his victory, yet so powerful that he’s going to take over the country and lead it to fascism
> @Jonathan said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @Roger said: > > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette. > > > > > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm. > > > > > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut. > > > > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has. > > > > Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
If the few larger ukip council groups are anything to go by, splits are likely as soon as these obsessives are asked to think about anything beyond the evils of Europe
> @rkrkrk said: > > @Roger said: > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > UKIP won the 2014 European elections too so this isn't anything new really. > > Edit to add: the long-term trend is of the UK becoming a more tolerant society.
Yes the idea that a society having signs saying "no blacks no irish" was much less shocking than todays because the majority voted Labour and Tory makes no sense to me.
Also from a practical point of view if it comes to the worst and in 10 years time the 30% of brexiteers want to march and be violent against the people of the cities it wont end well for them, especially if free public transport was no longer available for the elderly.
> @williamglenn said: > > @GarethoftheVale2 said: > > If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it. > > > > DELIVER BREXIT! > > If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless. > > Appeasement doesn't work.
We learnt that by appeasing the EU.
' Now if we give up half the Rebate the EU will be nice and reform the CAP '
> @williamglenn said: > > @GarethoftheVale2 said: > > If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it. > > > > DELIVER BREXIT! > > If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless. > > Appeasement doesn't work.
And it is the no dealers in the tory party who stopped Brexit!
> If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it.
>
> DELIVER BREXIT!
If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless.
Appeasement doesn't work.
If they’d delivered a soft Brexit compromise, rather than vote against any form of leaving, Farage’s lines would have no audience
Fraser Nelson is an idiot who will write and print anything in support of a hard Brexit. He was the one that published that 30 things wrong with May's deal article, when it turned out a good number of the 'facts' in it had simply been made up.
The Brexit crisis is tearing into the support for both main UK political parties, according to a Financial Times analysis of recent polls, with most Conservative voters shifting to more Eurosceptic groups and more than a quarter of Labour backers switching to pro-Remain parties.
The analysis indicates that the Conservatives are on course in this month’s European Parliament elections for the lowest share in history for the governing party in any national vote, principally because of defections to Nigel Farage’s newly founded Brexit party.
“Voters who switch to the Brexit party this time could start a habit,” said Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, a think-tank. He argued that the Conservatives’ expected “absolute mauling” would scare the party away from holding another national vote — such as an early general election — while the UK remains a member of the EU.
> @TOPPING said: > Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too? > > https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg > > Surely the better rhetorical touch would have been to reverse that - ie "do you think they're all David's Wives or could there be a smattering of Millwall supporters..." > > But anyway in the era of a BBC presenter getting fired for tweeting a picture about the royal family I think we're miles away from worrying about those mass rallies you keep referring to.
You make two good points. I'm also getting concerned about the authoritarianism which seems to want to suffocate unorthodox ideas and satire. Whatever happened to 'We Are Charlie'? Having said that at the heart of it is a nasty authoritarianism of which Faragism and Brexit is at best a symptom
> It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
Worth remembering that at the very bottom, through the darkness, even though it was hard to find, was Hope.
I hope that Corbyn and Farage do not do too much more harm - they’ve done plenty already - before Hope is found.
But that was the worst thing about it, because all the things anyone would hope for had gone. Hope was therefore a cruel delusion.
I think one must always have hope, however bleak life may appear at the time. It is what has kept me going at times.
> @isam said: > > @TOPPING said: > > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism. > > > > > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing. > > > > > > It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her. > > > > Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too? > > > > https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg > > Didn’t want to link from your twitter account?! 😂 > > https://twitter.com/champagne_lefty/status/1126164992850526210
Who is the 'Ghost of Tom Paine' and what on earth is that deluded comparison? Why do I have to occupy a planet with some people who have zero grasp of history. My wife works at the Imperial War Museum and would be appalled that someone would even consider comparing Farage to the Nazis. Deranged doesn't do justice to some of these twitter posters.
Comments
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > > >
> > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> > >
> > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> >
> > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
>
> I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @logical_song said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> > > >
> > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> > >
> > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
> >
> > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
>
> I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126730661316792320
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > >
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > >
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> >
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
> I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
*cough*
Der treue Ruth surely?
> > @logical_song said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> > > > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > > > @DavidL said:
>
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
>
> > > > > > >
>
> > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
>
> > > > > > >
>
> > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
>
> > > > > >
>
> > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
>
> > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
>
> > >
>
> > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
>
> >
>
> > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
>
>
>
> I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
>
>
>
> Interesting that we might be seeing the fading away of unthinking tribal voting behaviour like that amongst otherwise unpolitical people on both left and right.
>
> Wise woman.
The Conservatives’ current message to the current absolute majority who think Brexit is a mistake is “just let us finish this deranged obsession we have and then we’ll get back to sensible government.” Any wonder that barely a quarter of the country is currently thinking of putting an X in their box at the next election? The wonder is that it is that high.
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
>
> > >
>
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
>
> > >
>
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
>
> >
>
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
>
>
> I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
>
> And JohnO, TSE and Sean Fear, and probably myself, unhappy as we are.
>
> There are no good options in what is a very silly and pointless election.
So long as the Conservatives stay above 10% in polls, I'll vote for them. Below that, it becomes a wasted vote. IMHO, they'll manage a vote in the mid teens.
> Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
We live in bad, dangerous times. And there does seem to be some form of invisible force pulling us into the abyss.
> Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
> > @Roger said:
> > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> >
> > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
The Brexit party does not want to implement the 2016 vote. It opposes the withdrawal agreement.
> > @SquareRoot said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @logical_song said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> > > > >
> > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> > > >
> > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
> > >
> > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
> >
> > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
>
> Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand.
The Tories face more of a threat from the Brexit Party if they never implement Brexit than from even a No Deal Brexit
> > @Roger said:
> > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> >
> > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> We live in bad, dangerous times. And there does seem to be some form of invisible force pulling us into the abyss.
Maoism is dominant in the sense that what people want to believe is true is all important more than the reality of what is true. Most of political debate now is a contest between different varieties of make believe.
Partly because of the time in which I grew up, I blame Blair for this. He pandered to what he thought people wanted to hear, rather than made the case for what he thought was right. So the art of persuasion was lost from politics, and instead we have opinion dressed up as self-evident fact.
> > @Roger said:
> > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> >
> > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
https://twitter.com/garyfoskett/status/1121660229224058882
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> > >
> > > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
> >
> > The fact you compare a party which simply wants to respect the Leave vote 52% voted for in 2016 and which still has not been implemented to the Fascist far right tells you all you need to know as to why the Brexit Party are leading the polls
>
> The Brexit party does not want to implement the 2016 vote. It opposes the withdrawal agreement.
And the Commons has still refused to pass even the Withdrawal Agreement, Leaving the EU even with No Deal as the Brexit Party wants respects the Leave vote, staying in the EU and endlessly extending Article 50 as the Commons is currently doing does not.
Personally I think the better the Brexit Party does the more chance the Withdrawal Agreement has of passing as panicked Labour MPs from Leave seats end up voting for it but either way Withdrawal Agreement or no Withdrawal Agreement we must Leave the EU to respect the Brexit vote
> Partly because of the time in which I grew up, I blame Blair for this. He pandered to what he thought people wanted to hear, rather than made the case for what he thought was right. So the art of persuasion was lost from politics, and instead we have opinion dressed up as self-evident fact.
I don't agree with this at all. Blair had very definite ideas which he was more than willing to try to persuade hostile audiences about - remember his "masochism strategy" debating 6 hostile opponents of the war on TV, for instance. And it's easy to think in retrospect that the Good Friday Agreement and the social reforms were uncontroversial - they really were not. He was the best advocate of his generation, probably in my lifetime.
Where he in my opinion went wrong was to splurge too much of that persuasive power on some not very transformative projects (to put it kindly) like PFI. I'm very fond of Corbyn, as I've said, but I'd trade him for a Blair with Corbynite ideals in an instant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48210313
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @SquareRoot said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @logical_song said:
> > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> > > > >
> > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
> > > >
> > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
> > >
> > > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
> >
> > Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand.
>
> The Tories face more of a threat from the Brexit Party if they never implement Brexit than from even a No Deal Brexit
Very true. A Tory vote is for those who accept the Brexit reality and just want to move on with a broadly centre right program now.
https://twitter.com/TheGreenParty/status/1126736952353411073
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > Can't find any 'naming & shaming':
> > > >
> > > > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com
> > > >
> > > > EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
> > >
> > > Yup, it comes out like this:
> > > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com/back-the-deal/WITH
> >
> > Blatant email address harvesting.
>
> Useful for the recipients, of all parties, as well, if they are organised. As a councillor I used to get batches of standard emails from such sites, particularly during elections, most commonly from cycling, environmental or animal welfare campaigns. It was a useful way of identifying voters interested in these particular issues, as well as their email addresses (with the appropriate small print included at the bottom of the reply to cover off the data retention issues).
Yes, I felt as an MP that it was useful for both sides. If I knew the email addresses of 500 constituents interested in green issues, say, I could write to them about those and avoid wasting their and my time writing to them about, say, the motor industry.
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126725675979689986
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126730661316792320
What he said is inoffensive and a completely reasonable point of view. He should be sacked for being so stupid that he didn't know that.
> So I was thinking of making a better Remainiac tactical vote site that says where you're probably just as good voting Green instead of LibDem. But now they've pissed me off with their bullshit:
>
> https://twitter.com/TheGreenParty/status/1126736952353411073
It's true that D'Hondt with small numbers of MEPs means that splitting the vote is costly.
However it doesn't follow that tactical voting is the answer. The opinion polls will mostly be too inaccurate to allow you to make accurate judgements as to what would be an effective tactical vote.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @SquareRoot said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @logical_song said:
> > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
> > > > >
> > > > > I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
> > > >
> > > > I feel the same.. Labour Govts are always worse in the end in terms of debt and unemployment. We have got back to almost parity in terms of income and spending. Why let Labour ruin it again?
> > >
> > > Hence why any significant damage from Brexit presents an existential threat to the Tory brand.
> >
> > The Tories face more of a threat from the Brexit Party if they never implement Brexit than from even a No Deal Brexit
>
> Very true. A Tory vote is for those who accept the Brexit reality and just want to move on with a broadly centre right program now.
A Tory vote is for Brexit with a Deal, a Brexit Party vote is for Brexit with No Deal and the longer it takes for the former to pass the Withdrawal Agreement the better the latter will do
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > >
> > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > >
> > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > >
> > > That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
> >
> > I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it.
>
> Look to the Leavers. It was opposed by pretty well all the non-payroll Leave MPs in the first meaningful vote and its converts since have been reluctant rather than zealots. The inability of Leavers to celebrate compromising (and now it is seen as an active ill by many Leavers) is what is scuppering Brexit.
Yet those Conservative MPs who opposed MV1 would have supported it two years earlier.
So what has happened in the intervening period ?
Its clearly something which didn't take place among PBers or even something they were aware was happening.
Ann Widdecombe's behaviour is another example.
> However it doesn't follow that tactical voting is the answer. The opinion polls will mostly be too inaccurate to allow you to make accurate judgements as to what would be an effective tactical vote.
Well, without committing mathematics, in several of the regions LD/Green/CHUK will be lucky to get one seat so you only have to guess who's leading, which looks fairly clear right now, although you'd want to take a look at the polling later. So for those I think there's a very strong case to just go LD, if the polling holds as it is.
What I'd quibble with is London, SE, SW - in all of those Remain United are getting 2 seats for the LDs and losing the rest of the Green and CHUK votes; I think it would be better advice to say do what you prefer out of Green and LD.
And definitely only ideologues who oppose that, definitely.
> https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1126749452406943744?s=20
Allies.
Is that Tobes's new word for friends?
Labour and the Tories can strike a deal, pass legislation, and make Farage winning the Euros pointless if they like
> Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
UKIP won the 2014 European elections too so this isn't anything new really.
Edit to add: the long-term trend is of the UK becoming a more tolerant society.
> https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1126749452406943744?s=20
Everything about this is depressing. Membership (possibly attendance) of the Oxford Union should be a bar from office.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
>
> > Partly because of the time in which I grew up, I blame Blair for this. He pandered to what he thought people wanted to hear, rather than made the case for what he thought was right. So the art of persuasion was lost from politics, and instead we have opinion dressed up as self-evident fact.
>
> I don't agree with this at all. Blair had very definite ideas which he was more than willing to try to persuade hostile audiences about - remember his "masochism strategy" debating 6 hostile opponents of the war on TV, for instance. And it's easy to think in retrospect that the Good Friday Agreement and the social reforms were uncontroversial - they really were not. He was the best advocate of his generation, probably in my lifetime.
>
> Where he in my opinion went wrong was to splurge too much of that persuasive power on some not very transformative projects (to put it kindly) like PFI. I'm very fond of Corbyn, as I've said, but I'd trade him for a Blair with Corbynite ideals in an instant.
As far as I can tell your examples make my point. Blair never attempted to persuade people of the merits of the Iraq war. Instead we had nonsense about a 45 minute threat of WMD, so that the "debate" could be framed as opponents to the war putting the country at risk. The masochism strategy came later when Blair found that voters didn't want to forget the war.
Similarly with PFI. The merits, or otherwise, of this scheme were not debated in advance. It was used because building schools and hospitals was presented as self-evidently a good thing and Blair was not willing to try to persuade people of the merits of the necessary tax increases to fund the investment - so it was borrowed in the way that most hid the borrowing and most avoided the need to debate whether it was a good idea. He was only forced to defend it later, when criticism mounted.
With the Good Friday Agreement I do not remember any debate over whether it was the right thing to give up the UK claim to Northern Ireland. It was simply "This is peace. Peace is good." I'm on Blair's side for this example, but I can still see that he didn't really make a case for it.
You invoking jackboots, ergo, is a teeny bit glass house-ish, Rog.
> It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
>Leave is a minority in the UK now and almost all of that group are in denial about the realistic options available. I don't see a good outcome for the Conservatives
....
The backstop is just the prerequisite. The actual negotiations are still to happen and there's much more to them than just Ireland.
CFP (equivalent) because access to UK waters is a high priority item for Denmark, Spain and France, all of whom have a veto over the arrangement; CAP because UK farmers won't get access to their only substantial export market without it; Customs Union because of the Northern Irish land border and because car manufacturers who are in a fragile state can't function without it; also because there are WTO rules about customs unions that are somewhat binary; accepting all in scope future EU rules and EUCJ oversight because the EU won't accept close UK engagement without them and won't change the way it does things to accommodate an ex member.
> Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
The bloke that told us that Tessy's deal was deffo, deffo going to pass for deffo says not to worry? Most reassuring.
> > @Roger said:
> > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
>
> History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
>
> The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
It remains the least impossible thing available and I still see it passing. As for the "deffo, deffo, deffo" I think I gave the probabilities as:
1. WA - 85%
2. Deal/Remain referendum - 15%
I'd probably shift those to 80:20 now.
And I think the only person who would be advised to fear @DavidL's wife is @DavidL.
> It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
You would be laughed at.
Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/10/brexit-latest-news-guy-verhofstadt-joins-sir-vince-cable-lib/
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> >
> > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
> >
> > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
>
> Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
> The bloke that told us that Tessy's deal was deffo, deffo going to pass for deffo says not to worry? Most reassuring.
>
> It hasn't not passed yet, has it?
>
> It remains the least impossible thing available and I still see it passing. As for the "deffo, deffo, deffo" I think I gave the probabilities as:
>
> 1. WA - 85%
> 2. Deal/Remain referendum - 15%
>
> I'd probably shift those to 80:20 now.
>
> And I think the only person who would be advised to fear @DavidL's wife is @DavidL.
@DavidL's wife is shackled by Scotland's boring & douce centralism. It's the roasters on last night's (& every other recent night's) QT I'm worried about.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @Roger said:
> > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> > >
> > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
> > >
> > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
> >
> > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
>
>
>
> Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
Implement the result of the 2016 referendum result, perhaps?
> > @Roger said:
> > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
>
> You would be laughed at.
>
> Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler.
If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > > @Roger said:
> > > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> > > >
> > > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
> > > >
> > > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
> > >
> > > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
> >
> >
> >
> > Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
>
> Implement the result of the 2016 referendum result, perhaps?
Farage and his cronies have opposed the attempts to leave.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1126749322316374016?s=21
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> >
> > You would be laughed at.
> >
> > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler.
>
> If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm.
>
Heavens above, if you can't accept the view of someone who was an active member of a party led by Farage & intends voting for his current mob as unbiased and authoritative, where are we?
> Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg
> If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm.
>
> What harm is he causing? He wants a particular flavour of Brexit and is campaigning for it.
He stokes prejudice for his own political ends, he actively sows hostility and division and makes political debate and nuance impossible by using his communication talent to peddle populist lazy solutions.
https://www.politico.eu/article/expat-vote-how-many-europeans-live-abroad/
Would be interesting to see where EU citizens have gone to live outwith the EU, given most British expats aren't in the EU but primarily the Anglosphere.
Just like homophobic Republicans getting their cock sucked in the bogs, those who shout loudest about the misdeeds of others tend to be the worst offenders.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @Roger said:
> > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> > >
> > > You would be laughed at.
> > >
> > > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler.
> >
> > If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm.
> >
>
> Heavens above, if you can't accept the view of someone who was an active member of a party led by Farage & intends voting for his current mob as unbiased and authoritative, where are we?
I'll likely vote Conservative, this time around.
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> >
> > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
> >
> > It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
>
> Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too?
>
> https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg
You may have worked with some of them.
I hope that Corbyn and Farage do not do too much more harm - they’ve done plenty already - before Hope is found.
I mean I despise Nigel Farage but if you take out the poster episodes which I appreciate is a big ask (although no better or worse than the devil eyes of Blair and arguably a lot better than the anti-semitic Labour Michael Howard poster) and he is behaving no differently from any other politician.
Or are you just saying he is an effective rhetorician?
But anyway in the era of a BBC presenter getting fired for tweeting a picture about the royal family I think we're miles away from worrying about those mass rallies you keep referring to.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> >
> > You would be laughed at.
> >
> > Farage is a showman. He's not Hitler.
>
> If the best you can say if Farage is that he’s not Hitler, that’s a bit of a worry. You don’t have to be Hitler to cause a lot of harm.
>
I was responding to the comment about jackboots. If you're going to call someone a Nazi, you make yourself look hysterical, unless that person is actually a Nazi.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1126753603924815873?s=21
https://twitter.com/champagne_lefty/status/1126164992850526210?s=21
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48225334
> GDP up by 0.5% on the quarter, 1.8% y o y.
The Guardian say March was -0.1%, which would imply Jan+Feb was +0.6%. I know I ought not to bother with the monthly figures, but, annualised, the growth rate in the first two months was a healthy +3.7% (!)
DELIVER BREXIT!
> It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
How about mobilising against the threat by coming up with some solutions or even measures that will help on housing, social care, tackling obesity, modernising our economy and education systems to be ready for the next 50 years, protecting the environment?
> If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it.
>
> DELIVER BREXIT!
If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless.
Appeasement doesn't work.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > GDP up by 0.5% on the quarter, 1.8% y o y.
>
> The Guardian say March was -0.1%, which would imply Jan+Feb was +0.6%. I know I ought not to bother with the monthly figures, but, annualised, the growth rate in the first two months was a healthy +3.7% (!)
that way, madness lies
Biden up to 36%, 18 points ahead of Sanders. Buttigieg, Harris and Warren all in high single figures. Rest nowhere.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @Roger said:
> > > > It's time the rest started mobilising against the threat from Farage and the far right and started using appropriate imagery such as jackboots. He wont disappear in a waft of Gaultier's eau de toilette.
> > >
> > > History is not hugely encouraging. Politicians like Farage are usually only stopped after they have done tremendous harm.
> > >
> > > The Pandora’s box having been opened is hard to slam shut.
> >
> > Well, Farage has done a reasonable amount of harm already. Not just with Brexit, but by letting the genie of racialism out of the box. He might not really intended to do it, but he has.
>
>
>
> Farage might only be getting started. Who knows what he and his cronies would do with some actual power.
If the few larger ukip council groups are anything to go by, splits are likely as soon as these obsessives are asked to think about anything beyond the evils of Europe
> > @Roger said:
> > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
> >
> > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> UKIP won the 2014 European elections too so this isn't anything new really.
>
> Edit to add: the long-term trend is of the UK becoming a more tolerant society.
Yes the idea that a society having signs saying "no blacks no irish" was much less shocking than todays because the majority voted Labour and Tory makes no sense to me.
Also from a practical point of view if it comes to the worst and in 10 years time the 30% of brexiteers want to march and be violent against the people of the cities it wont end well for them, especially if free public transport was no longer available for the elderly.
> > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
> > If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it.
> >
> > DELIVER BREXIT!
>
> If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless.
>
> Appeasement doesn't work.
We learnt that by appeasing the EU.
' Now if we give up half the Rebate the EU will be nice and reform the CAP '
> > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
> > If people want to get rid of Farage, there is a very easy and effective way to do it.
> >
> > DELIVER BREXIT!
>
> If you deliver it successfully Farage will say it's a stitch-up that is not Brexit, and if you deliver a mess, Farage will say it's because you're useless.
>
> Appeasement doesn't work.
And it is the no dealers in the tory party who stopped Brexit!
> GDP up by 0.5% on the quarter, 1.8% y o y.
The trade deficit looks very concerning but a better quarter for business investment.
> https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/1126743093066194945?s=20
Fraser Nelson is an idiot who will write and print anything in support of a hard Brexit. He was the one that published that 30 things wrong with May's deal article, when it turned out a good number of the 'facts' in it had simply been made up.
The analysis indicates that the Conservatives are on course in this month’s European Parliament elections for the lowest share in history for the governing party in any national vote, principally because of defections to Nigel Farage’s newly founded Brexit party.
“Voters who switch to the Brexit party this time could start a habit,” said Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, a think-tank. He argued that the Conservatives’ expected “absolute mauling” would scare the party away from holding another national vote — such as an early general election — while the UK remains a member of the EU.
https://www.ft.com/content/63295436-7277-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5
> Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too?
>
> https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg
>
> Surely the better rhetorical touch would have been to reverse that - ie "do you think they're all David's Wives or could there be a smattering of Millwall supporters..."
>
> But anyway in the era of a BBC presenter getting fired for tweeting a picture about the royal family I think we're miles away from worrying about those mass rallies you keep referring to.
You make two good points. I'm also getting concerned about the authoritarianism which seems to want to suffocate unorthodox ideas and satire. Whatever happened to 'We Are Charlie'? Having said that at the heart of it is a nasty authoritarianism of which Faragism and Brexit is at best a symptom
> > @TOPPING said:
>
> > Farage leads in the EU polls..... What kind of a country do we live in? Who'd have beleived that one day the far right would find themselves in this position? It's shocking yet all we obsess about is Corbyn's ignorance of the nuances of anti semitism.
>
> >
>
> > Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. We are entering a national nightmare and no one seems to be noticing.
>
> >
>
> > It's the Euros, Rog, no one cares. Even @DavidL's wife is voting for the Brexit Party and I don't fear a country full of people like her.
>
>
>
> Do you think they're all Millwall supporters or could there be a smattering of 'David's Wives' in there too?
>
>
>
> https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3kVh4fFSjcg/U_mCksWXwAI/AAAAAAAAI7A/ZFLS7Z44R7Y/s1600/43MosleyRallyEarlsCourt1939.jpg
>
> Didn’t want to link from your twitter account?! 😂
>
> https://twitter.com/champagne_lefty/status/1126164992850526210
Who is the 'Ghost of Tom Paine' and what on earth is that deluded comparison? Why do I have to occupy a planet with some people who have zero grasp of history. My wife works at the Imperial War Museum and would be appalled that someone would even consider comparing Farage to the Nazis. Deranged doesn't do justice to some of these twitter posters.