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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Change UK have given a masterclass in how not to launch a poli

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Change UK have given a masterclass in how not to launch a political party

To be wrong once is inevitable, to be wrong twice is unfortunate, to be wrong three times is careless, but to be wrong as many times as Change UK have been is to show all the tactical and strategic awareness of a garden leaf trying to outwit a playful cat. It’s not merely that they keep losing the game; it’s not even that they don’t seem to know how the game’s played; it’s as if they don’t even know that there’s a game on at all.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,609
    Their future lies with the Lib Dem’s in some new combined thing.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,584
    edited May 11
    Second unlike CUK.

    I wonder whether one of the TIGgers (perhaps Wollaston) will re-rat towards the Lib Dems after the Euros.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,797
    Harsh, but fair. They have failed so spectacularly that nobody is going to accrete to them; it would be better to start another new party from scratch, and do it right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,413
    They should have taken Brian Cowan's advice to the Irish Greens "You're playing Senior Hurling now."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    It's not been fantastic. They did have good early momentum, but since then they've stalled badly. Name, logo, reportedly not wanting more Conservative defectors 'too soon' as if the window of opportunity would be open forever: there's been a lack of urgency, a complacency that the wind in their sails would blow kindly until they reached their destination.

    Now they're becalmed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,609
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > It's not been fantastic. They did have good early momentum, but since then they've stalled badly. Name, logo, reportedly not wanting more Conservative defectors 'too soon' as if the window of opportunity would be open forever: there's been a lack of urgency, a complacency that the wind in their sails would blow kindly until they reached their destination.
    >
    > Now they're becalmed.

    The need is still there however, and will accelerate when May hands over to an Ergonaut.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    Mr. Jonathan, the Lib Dems could fulfil that role, though.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    Well said. A good header.

    I wonder whether one of the reasons for their shambolic and incoherent start was that they felt pressurised into moving before they were really ready as a result of Luciana Berger’s decision to leave Labour before her baby was born.

    I suspect also that they expected or were hopeful that other Labour MPs would join them, which would have given them momentum, but that this was stymied by whatever Tom Watson got up to in those initial days. The full story of what happened with his manoeuvrings has yet to be told I’m sure.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,805
    From David L on the previous thread: We are having a crazy week in July when we are doing open days in Oxford, LSE and Cambridge on 3 successive days. I can only presume that it is deliberate that they overlap like this so people choose earlier or something.


    I can’t understand the “we”. If a person is old enough to go to University, to vote (moreso in Scotland I think), have children etc they’re old enough to decide without parents.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    CUK have made errors, their best hope is for Corbyn Labour to continue to fail to formally back EUref2 and the Withdrawal Agreement to pass in the next few months or we leave with No Deal in October with Macron vetoing further extension and the Tories picking Boris or Raab to succeed May
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,805
    edited May 11
    On topic, given how Chuka et al have performed, it’s easy to see how they lost Labour to the parasite wasps.
  • CUK don't offer anything change related. If you want bollocks to Brexit, far better to vote LD who are at least a real party.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,797
    > @matt said:
    > From David L on the previous thread: We are having a crazy week in July when we are doing open days in Oxford, LSE and Cambridge on 3 successive days. I can only presume that it is deliberate that they overlap like this so people choose earlier or something.
    >
    >
    > I can’t understand the “we”. If a person is old enough to go to University, to vote (moreso in Scotland I think), have children etc they’re old enough to decide without parents.

    There's a mean little point for you. He says "so people can choose early," so where is the suggestion that the parents are involved in making the decision? I am guessing you could only do that lot in the time allowed by car and the senior Ls are helping with the driving. "We" looks pretty innocuous to me.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @matt said:
    > From David L on the previous thread: We are having a crazy week in July when we are doing open days in Oxford, LSE and Cambridge on 3 successive days. I can only presume that it is deliberate that they overlap like this so people choose earlier or something.
    >
    >
    > I can’t understand the “we”. If a person is old enough to go to University, to vote (moreso in Scotland I think), have children etc they’re old enough to decide without parents.


    There’s a difference between involving your parents and letting them make your decision for you.

    It is nice to be involved and consulted provided you always remember that your child needs to make their own decisions. It is also worth remembering that sometimes they make the wrong ones or need advice and help and that you may need to be there to pick up the pieces. Keeping the lines of communication open as far and in a way as your child wants is a good thing.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 279
    Members of incompetent unappealing old parties in incompetent unappealing new party shock.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    The same vacillation that characterised Chuka's bid to lead the Labour Party, withdrawing just after throwing his hat in the ring, has characterised Change.

    I said they were all doomed at the start, and nothing I have seen suggests any of them will be MPs after the next election.

    I wonder how many of them will even bother fighting their seats.

    Chuka is not a man to fight a losing battle in the dirt and mud of the trenches, I wonder if he will even contest Streatham.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    Its yet another example of how incompetent our political class is.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,208
    edited May 11
    Chuka, Allen, Soubry etc. They were the future once.

    I guess these elections will be a good test as to how big an affect such catastrophic balls-up has on voting intention. Always important to remember that we who actually pay much attention to such things are a minority.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    To mention one more thing there 'barred gate' logo.

    It does inadvertently but effectively reveal what the splitters are all about - 'For people like us, not people like you'.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    edited May 11
    > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > @matt said:
    > > From David L on the previous thread: We are having a crazy week in July when we are doing open days in Oxford, LSE and Cambridge on 3 successive days. I can only presume that it is deliberate that they overlap like this so people choose earlier or something.
    > >
    > >
    > > I can’t understand the “we”. If a person is old enough to go to University, to vote (moreso in Scotland I think), have children etc they’re old enough to decide without parents.
    >
    > There's a mean little point for you. He says "so people can choose early," so where is the suggestion that the parents are involved in making the decision? I am guessing you could only do that lot in the time allowed by car and the senior Ls are helping with the driving. "We" looks pretty innocuous to me.

    ------

    They can go to the Open Days on their own, they don't really need their parents hanging around. In many cases, they don't want their parents hanging around either -- much more fun to go to the Open Day with a group of like-minded schoolfriends.

    I suspect you can actually get from London, Oxford and Cambridge by train in 3 days, rather easily. It is the South East of England, so there has been absolutely massive investment in transport infrastructure.

    It is also probably cheaper than a car, with a Young Person discount.

    And many Oxbridge colleges will offer limited accommodation for open days for students travelling long distances.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,576
    > @another_richard said:
    > Its yet another example of how incompetent our political class is.

    The independent network looks interesting on the East Midlands ballot.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,413
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Well said. A good header.
    >
    > I wonder whether one of the reasons for their shambolic and incoherent start was that they felt pressurised into moving before they were really ready as a result of Luciana Berger’s decision to leave Labour before her baby was born.
    >
    > I suspect also that they expected or were hopeful that other Labour MPs would join them, which would have given them momentum, but that this was stymied by whatever Tom Watson got up to in those initial days. The full story of what happened with his manoeuvrings has yet to be told I’m sure.

    There did seem a point where loads of Labour MP's were about to jump.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    edited May 11
    Mr. F, indeed.

    As Miss Cyclefree indicated, Watson seemed to stop that. In so doing, he may have simply helped Corbyn.

    The only clear break point would seem to be a Con-Lab deal with no referendum. If Corbyn agrees no deal, it's hard to see Labour MPs jumping now.

    Edited extra bit: they should, incidentally. Labour's led by a wretch, and there will almost certainly never be another time (within half a century) when the Opposition is so wretched and the Government so incompetent. It's fertile soil for a new crop of politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > CUK don't offer anything change related. If you want bollocks to Brexit, far better to vote LD who are at least a real party.

    CUK's task this election is to at least not fall behind the Greens, then as is likely by this time next year it will be a choice of Corbyn v Boris or Raab they can position themselves for Remainers who want something more fiscally conservative than the LDs or Greens but who dislike a pro hard Brexit Tory Party and a Corbynista Labour Party
  • isamisam Posts: 26,541
    edited May 11
    My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem



    Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,864
    edited May 11
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Well said. A good header.
    >
    > I wonder whether one of the reasons for their shambolic and incoherent start was that they felt pressurised into moving before they were really ready as a result of Luciana Berger’s decision to leave Labour before her baby was born.
    >
    > I suspect also that they expected or were hopeful that other Labour MPs would join them, which would have given them momentum, but that this was stymied by whatever Tom Watson got up to in those initial days. The full story of what happened with his manoeuvrings has yet to be told I’m sure.

    TIG was reported as having over a million pounds at its launch from two ex-Labour donors, so it could not have been that rushed by Luciana's baby. A more obvious explanation is the MPs know damn all about politics and had never appreciated the logistical support given by local and national parties. I doubt Jeremy Corbyn knows who prints Labour posters let alone who books helicopter flights, just that someone takes care of it.

    And if Tom Watson stopped future Labour defections by some unknown mechanism, which somehow has not leaked to the press, who is playing the same role on the blue team? Nearly 50 MPs have resigned from the government, three dozen over Brexit.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_resignations_from_the_second_May_ministry

    Why is TIG/Chuk not recruiting these disaffected Conservative MPs? Perhaps because it is not even trying.

    In any case, we can add the failure to exploit government resignations as an eighth point to DH's OP list.

    Mike Gapes' seemingly genuine surprise at being removed as a Labour member of a select committee might be a ninth.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > CUK don't offer anything change related. If you want bollocks to Brexit, far better to vote LD who are at least a real party.
    >
    > CUK's task this election is to at least not fall behind the Greens, then as is likely by this time next year it will be a choice of Corbyn v Boris or Raab they can position themselves for Remainers who want something more fiscally conservative than the LDs or Greens but who dislike a pro hard Brexit Tory Party and a Corbynista Labour Party

    The Conservative party is already pro hard Brexit.

    Having Raab in charge would turn it into a lightweight ToryBoy party.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,880
    isam said:

    My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem



    Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change

    Asking for a friend: Is it OK for, er, my friend to fancy Heidi, even though, um, he disagrees vehemently with her decision to leave the Tories?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    The Chukkers should have targeted a handful of Remain-friendly boroughs in the locals and fielded full slates of candidates and campaigned 24/7. If they had come from nowhere to win a couple of councils that would have been a story.

    Anyone who can make the LibDems look good is dire.
  • > @isam said:
    >

    We see this sort of thing a lot, usually with workers living on site illegally.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    edited May 11
    > @isam said:
    >

    Its the vision of Remainer reactionaries - sweatshops in every city, chain gangs on every farm, hand carwashes on every road.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > @isam said:
    > >
    >
    > We see this sort of thing a lot, usually with workers living on site illegally.

    Do they ever get prosecuted ?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @isam said:
    > >
    >
    > Its the vision of Remainer reactionaries - sweatshops in every city, chain gangs on every farm, hand carwashers on every road.

    Cheap nannies and au pairs. Abundant cleaners & gardeners for their homes ... and their second homes, and their third homes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    > @isam said:
    > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    >
    >
    >
    > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change

    CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > > CUK don't offer anything change related. If you want bollocks to Brexit, far better to vote LD who are at least a real party.
    > >
    > > CUK's task this election is to at least not fall behind the Greens, then as is likely by this time next year it will be a choice of Corbyn v Boris or Raab they can position themselves for Remainers who want something more fiscally conservative than the LDs or Greens but who dislike a pro hard Brexit Tory Party and a Corbynista Labour Party
    >
    > The Conservative party is already pro hard Brexit.
    >
    > Having Raab in charge would turn it into a lightweight ToryBoy party.

    May's Deal with the backstop is barely in the category of hard Brexit for most Brexiteers, May's Deal plus Customs Union in the PD if agreed with Labour certainly is not hard Brexit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    > @matt said:
    > From David L on the previous thread: We are having a crazy week in July when we are doing open days in Oxford, LSE and Cambridge on 3 successive days. I can only presume that it is deliberate that they overlap like this so people choose earlier or something.
    >
    >
    > I can’t understand the “we”. If a person is old enough to go to University, to vote (moreso in Scotland I think), have children etc they’re old enough to decide without parents.

    Depends who is paying the bills. Simples.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    >
    > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.

    Remember Macron got only 24% in the first round of the French presidential election and En Marche only got 32% in the first round of the French legislative election. If CUK do a deal with the LDs on the lines of the SDP/Liberal Alliance such voteshares are possible, the SDP/Liberal Alliance of course got 25% of the vote in 1983
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 394
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    >
    > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.

    Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,413
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > Well said. A good header.
    > >
    > > I wonder whether one of the reasons for their shambolic and incoherent start was that they felt pressurised into moving before they were really ready as a result of Luciana Berger’s decision to leave Labour before her baby was born.
    > >
    > > I suspect also that they expected or were hopeful that other Labour MPs would join them, which would have given them momentum, but that this was stymied by whatever Tom Watson got up to in those initial days. The full story of what happened with his manoeuvrings has yet to be told I’m sure.
    >
    > TIG was reported as having over a million pounds at its launch from two ex-Labour donors, so it could not have been that rushed by Luciana's baby. A more obvious explanation is the MPs know damn all about politics and had never appreciated the logistical support given by local and national parties. I doubt Jeremy Corbyn knows who prints Labour posters let alone who books helicopter flights, just that someone takes care of it.
    >
    > And if Tom Watson stopped future Labour defections by some unknown mechanism, which somehow has not leaked to the press, who is playing the same role on the blue team? Nearly 50 MPs have resigned from the government, three dozen over Brexit.
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_resignations_from_the_second_May_ministry
    >
    > Why is TIG/Chuk not recruiting these disaffected Conservative MPs? Perhaps because it is not even trying.
    >
    > In any case, we can add the failure to exploit government resignations as an eighth point to DH's OP list.
    >
    > Mike Gapes' seemingly genuine surprise at being removed as a Labour member of a select committee might be a ninth.
    >
    >

    Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics. One can't overstate the importance of having the right infrastructure in place to deliver a political party's message on the ground.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,690

    CUK don't offer anything change related. If you want bollocks to Brexit, far better to vote LD who are at least a real party.

    Allegedly
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,208
    edited May 11
    HYUFD said:

    CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.

    Which is the target base of most of our political class. Niche market with lots of competitors.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,690

    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:

    > > @isam said:

    > >



    >

    > We see this sort of thing a lot, usually with workers living on site illegally.



    Do they ever get prosecuted ?
    That's the Tories for you , sweatshops and workhouses for all plebs
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,602
    OT None of the defectors are very High profile , their numbers are small and their backgrounds disparate. All that unites them is a negative dislike of a Referendum they failed to win. They're now bleating about how awful Farage is and by implication how awful anyone must be who votes for him - that could be nearly 30 % of voters later this month. The shambles that is British politics continues and the blunt truth is that for voters it is truly a 'plague on all your houses' with no-one from the traditional parties offering anything resembling credible leadership or message.

    Fortunately it is not a great deal better anywhere else in the 'free' world and the economy appears to be doing ok. Who'd ever have thunk it? :)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,138
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Jonathan, the Lib Dems could fulfil that role, though.

    They can now, but back in February we were still wondering how long it would take them to throw off the taint of the Coalition years.

    As I said yesterday, the incompetence of TIG seems to have reminded a whole bunch of centrist voters that they would miss the Lib Dems if they went away, and convinced them that it's time to forgive them for tuition fees and all that.

    I don't think the timing of the Lib Dem resurgence is a coincidence. I don't think it would have happened if TIG hadn't happened.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,149
    Some parties standing a candidate in the Peterborough by-election:

    The UK EU Party
    The SDP
    The English Democrats
    Renew*
    The Common Good Party
    The Monster Raving Loony Party
    The Christian People's Party

    Some parties not standing in the Peterborough by-election

    Change UK - The Independent Group
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > >
    > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    >
    > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.

    If you live on a rural country estate you may be elite but you are more likely to be conservative elite and a Tory voter and a Leaver ie not CUK's target market.

    Plenty of wealthy French conservative rural elites voted for Fillon and Les Republicains in the first round in France, not for Macron and En Marche (even if they voted for Macron in the runoff v Le Pen)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > >
    > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    >
    > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.

    And that's the LOL bit.

    How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,690

    > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > Mr. Jonathan, the Lib Dems could fulfil that role, though.



    They can now, but back in February we were still wondering how long it would take them to throw off the taint of the Coalition years.



    As I said yesterday, the incompetence of TIG seems to have reminded a whole bunch of centrist voters that they would miss the Lib Dems if they went away, and convinced them that it's time to forgive them for tuition fees and all that.



    I don't think the timing of the Lib Dem resurgence is a coincidence. I don't think it would have happened if TIG hadn't happened.

    Kind of jumping the gun re the lib Dems, they have got some new local councillors, they are still hated, when it comes tpo a real election that matters , only fools would vote for the lying unprincipled LD's. They will stay where they should be at the bottom of the pile, irrelevant bottom feeders.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,584
    malcolmg said:

    > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > Mr. Jonathan, the Lib Dems could fulfil that role, though.



    They can now, but back in February we were still wondering how long it would take them to throw off the taint of the Coalition years.



    As I said yesterday, the incompetence of TIG seems to have reminded a whole bunch of centrist voters that they would miss the Lib Dems if they went away, and convinced them that it's time to forgive them for tuition fees and all that.



    I don't think the timing of the Lib Dem resurgence is a coincidence. I don't think it would have happened if TIG hadn't happened.

    Kind of jumping the gun re the lib Dems, they have got some new local councillors, they are still hated, when it comes tpo a real election that matters , only fools would vote for the lying unprincipled LD's. They will stay where they should be at the bottom of the pile, irrelevant bottom feeders.
    But enough of the measured equivocation, Malc, tell us what you really think.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Mr. Jonathan, the Lib Dems could fulfil that role, though.
    >
    > They can now, but back in February we were still wondering how long it would take them to throw off the taint of the Coalition years.
    >
    > As I said yesterday, the incompetence of TIG seems to have reminded a whole bunch of centrist voters that they would miss the Lib Dems if they went away, and convinced them that it's time to forgive them for tuition fees and all that.
    >
    > I don't think the timing of the Lib Dem resurgence is a coincidence. I don't think it would have happened if TIG hadn't happened.

    Yet the LibDems aren't doing any better than they were two years ago let alone the levels they reached regularly in the 1990s and 2000s.

    And I'm not sure the ever increasing number of graduates with huge debts will ever forgive the LibDems for their betrayal as they will continually be reminded of it with every payslip they receive.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    Mr. Me, possibly but that could simply be that the original departure deadline was missed and there seems to be at least some more electoral desire for a pro-EU party, which would likely have happened (in my opinion, at least) without the CUKs existence.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,413
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > >
    > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    >
    > Remember Macron got only 24% in the first round of the French presidential election and En Marche only got 32% in the first round of the French legislative election. If CUK do a deal with the LDs on the lines of the SDP/Liberal Alliance such voteshares are possible, the SDP/Liberal Alliance of course got 25% of the vote in 1983

    France's two round system favoured en Marche, in a way that neither our system, nor a more proportionate system, would do.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,208
    edited May 11
    Quincel said:

    Some parties standing a candidate in the Peterborough by-election:
    The UK EU Party
    The SDP
    The English Democrats
    Renew*
    The Common Good Party
    The Monster Raving Loony Party
    The Christian People's Party

    Some parties not standing in the Peterborough by-election

    Change UK - The Independent Group

    And more to the point both the LDs and Greens had back-up candidates, why didn’t the CUKs?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,902
    HYUFD said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @isam said:

    > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem

    > >

    > >

    > >

    > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change

    >

    > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.



    Remember Macron got only 24% in the first round of the French presidential election and En Marche only got 32% in the first round of the French legislative election. If CUK do a deal with the LDs on the lines of the SDP/Liberal Alliance such voteshares are possible, the SDP/Liberal Alliance of course got 25% of the vote in 1983

    I think a factor is that Blair-Cameronism led to lots of people in politics who didn't have to do much work to get there. Farage, the Lib Dems and the Labour Left have all had the experience of having to fight to get something that they couldn't take for granted. The ChUks have some good qualities, but they owe their positions to patronage not pavement pounding.

    So now they have gone out on their own they don't have the survival skills.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > >
    > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > >
    > > Remember Macron got only 24% in the first round of the French presidential election and En Marche only got 32% in the first round of the French legislative election. If CUK do a deal with the LDs on the lines of the SDP/Liberal Alliance such voteshares are possible, the SDP/Liberal Alliance of course got 25% of the vote in 1983
    >
    > France's two round system favoured en Marche, in a way that neither our system, nor a more proportionate system, would do.

    Macron and En Marche still narrowly came top though, even in the first round at least in terms of voteshare. If the Brexit Party continue to split the right with the Tories and a CUK/LD Alliance eat into the Labour vote it is not impossible to imagine that CUK/LD Alliance coming top though without a majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > >
    > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > >
    > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    >
    > And that's the LOL bit.
    >
    > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?

    Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    > Kind of jumping the gun re the lib Dems, they have got some new local councillors, they are still hated, when it comes tpo a real election that matters , only fools would vote for the lying unprincipled LD's. They will stay where they should be at the bottom of the pile, irrelevant bottom feeders.
    >
    > But enough of the measured equivocation, Malc, tell us what you really think.

    The LibDems have learnt a rude word. We think it was probably something they picked up off the TV.

    Like a very young pre-schooler, they are now using their new rude word all the time.

    The word sounds funny and it can get a bit of a reaction. They like the new word because it gets them some attention.

    Soon, they will have to go and see the Reception teacher, who will give a short talk on respectful speaking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    > @Recidivist said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > @isam said:
    >
    > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    >
    > >
    >
    > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    >
    >
    >
    > Remember Macron got only 24% in the first round of the French presidential election and En Marche only got 32% in the first round of the French legislative election. If CUK do a deal with the LDs on the lines of the SDP/Liberal Alliance such voteshares are possible, the SDP/Liberal Alliance of course got 25% of the vote in 1983
    >
    > I think a factor is that Blair-Cameronism led to lots of people in politics who didn't have to do much work to get there. Farage, the Lib Dems and the Labour Left have all had the experience of having to fight to get something that they couldn't take for granted. The ChUks have some good qualities, but they owe their positions to patronage not pavement pounding.
    >
    > So now they have gone out on their own they don't have the survival skills.

    I agree they need a pact with the LDs to grow
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 43
    Change UK are up a creek without a paddle. They should join the Liberal party. But I expect them to disappear at the next election anyway, when they forfeit their seats.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > >
    > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > >
    > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > >
    > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > >
    > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    >
    > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so

    Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    edited May 11
    > @isam said:
    >

    The Leicester sweatshops were reported on back in 2010 by Channel 4:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/retail-giants-shamed-by-uk-sweatshops-2128022.html

    It doesn't seem like much has changed since then.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,847
    Good piece as always David. It’s been quite funny watching TIG / CUK / CUK-TIG / whatever it is this week from a distance. Probably not so funny for their supporters though, nor their MPs who are facing wipeout if there’s an election any time soon.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    Good piece David.

    And compare and contrast the launch of CUK with the Brexit Party's near perfect launch.

    The difference is pretty embarrassing actually.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,413
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > >
    > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > >
    > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > >
    > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > >
    > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > >
    > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    >
    > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.

    Home ownership levels seem to be on the rise again, now that private house building has surged.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,426
    > @noneoftheabove said:

    > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.

    *

    I've noticed this too.

    'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    > And compare and contrast the launch of CUK with the Brexit Party's near perfect launch.
    >
    > The difference is pretty embarrassing actually.

    I don't like Farage, but he is no fool. He has comprehensively done a better job than Chuka & Co.

    DavidH could have entitled his article "The Brexit Party have given a masterclass in how to launch a political party"

    This is why a second referendum may not be such a good idea for Remainers. The people running TIG will be the people running Remain !
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > > >
    > > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > > >
    > > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > > >
    > > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    > >
    > > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
    >
    > Home ownership levels seem to be on the rise again, now that private house building has surged.

    Which is a good thing but there's over a decade of 'catch up' required to get back to where we should be.

    Meanwhile we have to put up with Hyufd's panglossian view of housing and inheritance.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,902
    One of my friends was serving as a squaddie in NI in 72. He said the rest of the army were disgusted by the paras. To be scrupulously fair to Mr Mercer, there isn't much to be achieved by re-opening the sorry episode now. But we'd have been a lot better off if the behaviour of a small number of our troops that didn't live up to the standards we expect of them had been addressed at the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > >
    > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > >
    > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > >
    > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > >
    > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > >
    > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    >
    > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.

    I could tell you that most people are still home owners by 40.

    Even in 2013-14 the ONS figures show almost 60% of 35 to 44 year olds were home owners

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/ukperspectives2016housingandhomeownershipintheuk/2016-05-25
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @noneoftheabove said:
    >
    > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    >
    > *
    >
    > I've noticed this too.
    >
    > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.

    That must mean that the super-elite know what a Flat White is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    Mr. Kinabalu, definitions have been stretched and abused for a long time.

    Playing the race card over migration, or the UN wibbling about the UK's human rights record when decade-long squatters were finally forced out of Dale Farm, spring to mind.

    Mr. Divvie, that's utterly barbaric.

    I'd be wary of using single instances or small samples to label a whole group, though, unless you consider all the Irish to be represented by the IRA...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Our brave lads.
    >
    >

    Nobody gives a toss about what may or may not have happened a long time ago in a far away place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > > >
    > > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > > >
    > > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > > >
    > > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    > >
    > > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
    >
    > Home ownership levels seem to be on the rise again, now that private house building has surged.

    Yes house building is on the up again

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-homes-new-numbers-high-construction-a8177061.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,472
    Leaving their parties was a brave and bold decision, and attempting to start a new party rather than join someone else or stay as a loose collaboration of independents was also something to be applauded. The scale of the task before them was always going to be huge, so failure in itself would not necessarily speak poorly of them.

    All that being said, CUK have not grabbed as much momentum as they would have hoped. In seeming to want to replace a party with the exact same policy as them if they then fail to beat them in the Euros, as now seems very likely, it does beg the question what are they there for. They engage in the same whining about the media and moaning about unfairness as others, and the 'the big parties are all bad we need a change' line is very stock and cliche.

    Basically by elimination of other options I was thinking as an encouragement to those who wish to try to break through our rigid party system they deserve a vote in the Euros, but if I follow through on that it will be half hearted. But here in the SW the LDs will already get one this time I think, and I don't think there's much chance of them getting more, so there's no harm in voting CUK.

    Honestly I should probably vote Con out of pity and in recognition of having long backed the deal, but I just don't think I can bring myself to reward a party in such a state, and which is eagerly telling its MPs it wants to take a massive shift to no deal brexit and the right.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > > >
    > > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > > >
    > > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > > >
    > > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    > >
    > > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
    >
    > I could tell you that most people are still home owners by 40.
    >
    > Even in 2013-14 the ONS figures show almost 60% of 35 to 44 year olds were home owners
    >
    > https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/ukperspectives2016housingandhomeownershipintheuk/2016-05-25

    ' The chances of a young adult on a middle income owning a home in the UK have more than halved in the past two decades.

    New research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows how an explosion in house prices above income growth has increasingly robbed the younger generation of the ability to buy their own home. For 25- to 34-year-olds earning between £22,200 and £30,600 per year, home ownership fell to just 27% in 2016 from 65% two decades ago. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/feb/16/homeownership-among-young-adults-collapsed-institute-fiscal-studies
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,847
    For all the talk of the CUKers cocking up, let’s not forget the first prize winners in the how-not-to-do-politics awards. That one goes to the seven climate change protesters, who didn’t understand how the EU elections work and decided to stand individually in London, paying £5k deposits each and with no chance of any of them getting elected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > > > >
    > > > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    > > >
    > > > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
    > >
    > > Home ownership levels seem to be on the rise again, now that private house building has surged.
    >
    > Which is a good thing but there's over a decade of 'catch up' required to get back to where we should be.
    >
    > Meanwhile we have to put up with Hyufd's panglossian view of housing and inheritance.

    It is not panglossian to point out most people have bought their first property by 40 (certainly outside London) and more people are receiving an inheritance in their 50s and 60s than ever before and in some cases a sizeable inheritance helped by Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    In 2015 the age at which most voters first voted Tory was 35, by 2017 it was 47. It was not housing which saw that 12 year rise in age of the average first time Tory voter in just 2 years but Brexit
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    edited May 11
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @noneoftheabove said:
    >
    > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    >
    > *
    >
    > I've noticed this too.
    >
    > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.

    A reasonable thing to do might be to look at which constituencies have the largest mean income (earned and unearned). There is data on the House of Commons website on this.

    They seem to be Kensington, City of London & Westminster, Westminster North, Wimbledon and Chelsea & Fulham.

    Seems a reasonable definition of a moneyed elite to me, and it seems to be ... err ... metropolitan.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 394
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > >
    > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > >
    > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    >
    > And that's the LOL bit.
    >
    > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?

    Most people in London do not see themselves as superior or elite, that label has been given to us by others in an attempt to belittle our views. There is clearly a cultural difference, and differences in values between the cities and smaller towns or rural life, but for standard of living the average Londoner does not have it significantly better than the average person in the rest of the country. (Average earnings higher but average costs even higher; for anyone working in public services they are very likely to be significantly worse off in London yet get lumped in as elite).

    Calling us elite is just another example of trying to divide the country and ignoring people with different views, it also lets the real elite off during a period they have taken an ever increasing share of the countrys wealth.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > >
    > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > >
    > > *
    > >
    > > I've noticed this too.
    > >
    > > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
    >
    > That must mean that the super-elite know what a Flat White is.

    How do tea drinkers fit into this classifications.

    Say someone who drinks flavoured, powdered tea or someone who drinks green tea ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,426
    Good header, although the perfect wisdom of hindsight applies to an extent.

    For me, Change were doomed for 2 main reasons, (i) there is no yawning gap for a new centrist and pro-EU party when we have the perfectly serviceable LDs, and (ii) the creation was tops down rather than bottoms up and the founders have little in common politically other than a desperation to stay in the EU and a loathing of Jeremy Corbyn.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @Sandpit said:
    > For all the talk of the CUKers cocking up, let’s not forget the first prize winners in the how-not-to-do-politics awards. That one goes to the seven climate change protesters, who didn’t understand how the EU elections work and decided to stand individually in London, paying £5k deposits each and with no chance of any of them getting elected.

    Appearing seven times on the ballot paper will lead to some confusion and probably cost the Greens some votes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,440
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Kinabalu, definitions have been stretched and abused for a long time.
    >
    > Playing the race card over migration, or the UN wibbling about the UK's human rights record when decade-long squatters were finally forced out of Dale Farm, spring to mind.
    >
    > Mr. Divvie, that's utterly barbaric.
    >
    > I'd be wary of using single instances or small samples to label a whole group, though, unless you consider all the Irish to be represented by the IRA...

    I think in the light of this, Ballymurphy & Bloody Sunday we could probably attach some sort of label to 1 PARA.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    Mr. Sandpit, blimey. They must have deep pockets.

    Mr. Divvie, the unit, perhaps. Not the entire army/armed forces.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,440
    edited May 11
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Our brave lads.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Nobody gives a toss about what may or may not have happened a long time ago in a far away place.

    I wish you'd tell that to the lads ramping up their marches outside Catholic chapels where I live. A good few of them will also have 'I'm with soldier F' t shirts I'm sure.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > >
    > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > >
    > > *
    > >
    > > I've noticed this too.
    > >
    > > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
    >
    > A reasonable thing to do might be to look at which constituencies have the largest mean income (earned and unearned). There is data on the House of Commons website on this.
    >
    > They seem to be Kensington, City of London & Westminster, Westminster North, Wimbledon and Chelsea & Fulham.
    >
    > Seems a reasonable definition of a moneyed elite to me, and it seems to be ... err ... metropolitan.
    >

    With the exception of Wimbldeon those constituencies will have low levels of home ownership and high levels of inequality.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 13,729
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    > > > >
    > > > > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
    > > >
    > > > Home ownership levels seem to be on the rise again, now that private house building has surged.
    > >
    > > Which is a good thing but there's over a decade of 'catch up' required to get back to where we should be.
    > >
    > > Meanwhile we have to put up with Hyufd's panglossian view of housing and inheritance.
    >
    > It is not panglossian to point out most people have bought their first property by 40 (certainly outside London) and more people are receiving an inheritance in their 50s and 60s than ever before and in some cases a sizeable inheritance helped by Osborne's inheritance tax cut.
    >
    > In 2015 the age at which most voters first voted Tory was 35, by 2017 it was 47. It was not housing which saw that 12 year rise in age of the average first time Tory voter in just 2 years but Brexit

    An inheritance when you are over 50 is not going to help you buy a house.

    Nor for that matter is the student debt the Conservatives have stuck on young graduates.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48213333
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > >
    > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > >
    > > > *
    > > >
    > > > I've noticed this too.
    > > >
    > > > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
    > >
    > > A reasonable thing to do might be to look at which constituencies have the largest mean income (earned and unearned). There is data on the House of Commons website on this.
    > >
    > > They seem to be Kensington, City of London & Westminster, Westminster North, Wimbledon and Chelsea & Fulham.
    > >
    > > Seems a reasonable definition of a moneyed elite to me, and it seems to be ... err ... metropolitan.
    > >
    >
    > With the exception of Wimbldeon those constituencies will have low levels of home ownership and high levels of inequality.

    There is a fair bit of social housing in those constituencies but they are also full of twentysomething bankers, corporate and commercial lawyers and tech workers who will rent in central London for a few years before buying a house in Surrey etc in their mid 30s.

    While if they are rich enough to buy in Kensington and Chelsea or Cities of London and Westminster they will have an asset worth at least £1 million+
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    edited May 11
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > Most people in London do not see themselves as superior or elite, that label has been given to us by others in an attempt to belittle our views. There is clearly a cultural difference, and differences in values between the cities and smaller towns or rural life, but for standard of living the average Londoner does not have it significantly better than the average person in the rest of the country. (Average earnings higher but average costs even higher; for anyone working in public services they are very likely to be significantly worse off in London yet get lumped in as elite).

    ----

    When we are talking about an elite, we probably should not be talking about averages.

    We should be looking at, say, the top tenth percentile of the distribution.

    The top tenth percentile of Londoners is an elite, and it is vastly more wealthy the the top tenth percentile in Wales or in Scotland or the North of England.

    Sure, there are poor people in London. On average, Londoners are only a bit richer than people in the Midlands.

    But the distribution of wealth in London is very different to the distribution of wealth elsewhere in the country, and it has a very long tail towards very wealthy people. In shorthand, there is a metropolitan elite.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > >
    > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > >
    > > > *
    > > >
    > > > I've noticed this too.
    > > >
    > > > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
    > >
    > > That must mean that the super-elite know what a Flat White is.
    >
    > How do tea drinkers fit into this classifications.
    >
    > Say someone who drinks flavoured, powdered tea or someone who drinks green tea ?

    As someone who drinks green tea with milk I'm definitely not part of the elite.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    > @another_richard said:
    >
    > With the exception of Wimbldeon those constituencies will have low levels of home ownership and high levels of inequality.

    Absolutely. If you own property in those places, you are in a very different position to someone renting.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,781
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Our brave lads.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Nobody gives a toss about what may or may not have happened a long time ago in a far away place.

    What an absolutely appalling comment. Many of those involved are still alive, and one can totally understand their anger.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 394
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > >
    > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make someone elite? Living in your rural country estate sending your children to Eton, (when not with their nanny) seems to be salt of the earth today, whereas renting a two bed shared ownership flat in Croydon counts as elite. What a strange change of meaning for the word elite over the last ten years.
    > > >
    > > > *
    > > >
    > > > I've noticed this too.
    > > >
    > > > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
    > >
    > > A reasonable thing to do might be to look at which constituencies have the largest mean income (earned and unearned). There is data on the House of Commons website on this.
    > >
    > > They seem to be Kensington, City of London & Westminster, Westminster North, Wimbledon and Chelsea & Fulham.
    > >
    > > Seems a reasonable definition of a moneyed elite to me, and it seems to be ... err ... metropolitan.
    > >
    >
    > With the exception of Wimbldeon those constituencies will have low levels of home ownership and high levels of inequality.

    Yes, anyone who owns a house or even an average flat in those constituencies is probably part of the elite. Many of the people who do own there wont be Londoners, but live elsewhere, often leafy rural England, or abroad. As an educated guess you might be talking about 25k-75k of homeowners in the boroughs listed above out of 8 million Londoners.

    Those in council housing (the likes of Grenfell) are not elite merely because of where they live.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 394
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > Most people in London do not see themselves as superior or elite, that label has been given to us by others in an attempt to belittle our views. There is clearly a cultural difference, and differences in values between the cities and smaller towns or rural life, but for standard of living the average Londoner does not have it significantly better than the average person in the rest of the country. (Average earnings higher but average costs even higher; for anyone working in public services they are very likely to be significantly worse off in London yet get lumped in as elite).
    >
    > ----
    >
    > When we are talking about an elite, we probably should not be talking about averages.
    >
    > We should be looking at, say, the top tenth percentile of the distribution.
    >
    > The top tenth percentile of Londoners is an elite, and it is vastly more wealthy the the top tenth percentile in Wales or in Scotland or the North of England.
    >
    > Sure, there are poor people in London. On average, Londoners are only a bit richer than people in the Midlands.
    >
    > But the distribution of wealth in London is very different to the distribution of wealth elsewhere in the country, and it has a very long tail towards very wealthy people. In shorthand, there is a metropolitan elite.

    Of course there is a metropolitan elite. As there is a rural elite. It is the casual mixing of the words metropolitan and elite together to make the views of 8 million Londoners count for less that is dubious at best.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 54,000
    edited May 11
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > > My twitter trends sum up ChangeUKs problem
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > > Maybe they will surprise us all at the Euro Elections, but right from the off I never really got how they were meant to appeal to the masses. They seemed like a bunch of upper middle class, dinner party guests who were mildly put out at the food on offer rather than genuinely fired up, passionate activists for social change
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > CUK are not designed to appeal to the masses, much like En Marche they are designed to appeal to the liberal, metropolitan, pro EU and relaxed about immigration elite.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Why on earth does living in a city make e over the last ten years.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > And that's the LOL bit.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > How many of those who regard themselves as sophisticated, cosmopolitan globalists are no better than wage slaves renting a room in a crime ridden shithole and having inequality rubbed continually in their faces ?
    > > > >
    > > > > Most of them earn significantly more than the national average and will move to the Home Counties to buy a property in due course helped by both partners combining London wages to do so
    > > >
    > > > Perhaps you could give some data as to how home ownership levels have changed since 2000.
    > >
    > > I could tell you that most people are still home owners by 40.
    > >
    > > Even in 2013-14 the ONS figures show almost 60% of 35 to 44 year olds were home owners
    > >
    > > https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/ukperspectives2016housingandhomeownershipintheuk/2016-05-25
    >
    > ' The chances of a young adult on a middle income owning a home in the UK have more than halved in the past two decades.
    >
    > New research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows how an explosion in house prices above income growth has increasingly robbed the younger generation of the ability to buy their own home. For 25- to 34-year-olds earning between £22,200 and £30,600 per year, home ownership fell to just 27% in 2016 from 65% two decades ago. '
    >
    > https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/feb/16/homeownership-among-young-adults-collapsed-institute-fiscal-studies

    So the average age of a first time buyer has shifted from 25 to 34 to 35 to 44 but given we marry later now too if at all and more of us are graduates and join the workforce later that is also to be expected in line with that trend and house building is also finally increasing again to help more young people get on the housing ladder
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,426
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > @noneoftheabove said:

    > > 'Elite' has come to mean knowing what a cappuccino is and not being discombobulated by foreigners and tall buildings.
    >
    > That must mean that the super-elite know what a Flat White is.

    :smile:

    Yes - they are THE ONE PERCENT.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,076
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Mr. Kinabalu, definitions have been stretched and abused for a long time.
    > >
    > > Playing the race card over migration, or the UN wibbling about the UK's human rights record when decade-long squatters were finally forced out of Dale Farm, spring to mind.
    > >
    > > Mr. Divvie, that's utterly barbaric.
    > >
    > > I'd be wary of using single instances or small samples to label a whole group, though, unless you consider all the Irish to be represented by the IRA...
    >
    > I think in the light of this, Ballymurphy & Bloody Sunday we could probably attach some sort of label to 1 PARA.

    At least Mercer's honest enough to say people who are his mates shouldn't be prosecuted.
This discussion has been closed.