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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    > @RobD said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > That's ridiculous: Scotland hasn't been a country since the Act of Union in 1707.
    >
    > Quite correct. The title should clearly be "Countries and provinces".
    >
    > *runs away*

    Marvellous that football teams from a lowly province are contesting the Champions & Europa League finals.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    > @Benpointer said:
    > You're correct. 52% of adults are homeowners. This figure peaked at 58% in 2003. A further 13% are either students, or adults living with their parents. However, the decline ended in about 2014.
    >
    > So even if you just take adults alone rather than households a majority are still property owners, thankyou
    >
    > Is it fair to describe 52% as a majority?
    >
    > Surely more accurate to conclude that the country is split down the middle between those who own property and those who do not.
    >
    > Home ownership is the 'will of the people'. No need to worry about the silly feckers who choose to rent - they lost.

    Now we just need to figure out what everyone meant by 'Home'. A studio flat or a country estate?

    Or is No Home better than a Bad Home?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: still no markets, more than two hours after qualifying ended!

    Pah! Feh! Meh!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    That's true (Rob D) but applying substance over form 52/48 is more 'half and half' than 'majority v minority'.

    For example if a Muslim country was 52% Sunni and 48% Shia would the Shia be viewed as a 'minority grouping'?

    I don't think they would. It would give a false impression. Split down the middle Sunni Shia seems better.

    Arguable point though. I think we are both right.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    > @Benpointer said:
    > What we're really seeing is another example of the hideous nature of FPTP for new parties, even when loads of voters want a change. In any proportional system, ChUK could get 5-10% and keep all their seats, but in Britain you really have to work with people who you're not necessarily that keen on...or die.
    >
    > Not been a problem for the Brexit Party though has it?
    >
    > They've not won any FPTP elections yet.

    But the BBC have their head up their ........
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    > @RobD said:

    > > @rcs1000 said:

    > > > @isam said:

    > > >

    > >

    > > That's ridiculous: Scotland hasn't been a country since the Act of Union in 1707.

    >

    > Quite correct. The title should clearly be "Countries and provinces".

    >

    > *runs away*



    Marvellous that football teams from a lowly province are contesting the Champions & Europa League finals.

    English exceptionalism.

    :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,259

    > @Benpointer said:

    > You're correct. 52% of adults are homeowners. This figure peaked at 58% in 2003. A further 13% are either students, or adults living with their parents. However, the decline ended in about 2014.

    >

    > So even if you just take adults alone rather than households a majority are still property owners, thankyou

    >

    > Is it fair to describe 52% as a majority?

    >

    > Surely more accurate to conclude that the country is split down the middle between those who own property and those who do not.

    >

    > Home ownership is the 'will of the people'. No need to worry about the silly feckers who choose to rent - they lost.



    Now we just need to figure out what everyone meant by 'Home'. A studio flat or a country estate?



    Or is No Home better than a Bad Home?

    Home mean's Home
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > Funnily enough about 20 minutes ago I walked past 3 people handing out CUK leaflets on Union Street in Aberdeen. It is the first presence I have seen of them anywhere outside of this forum and the TV.
    >
    > I've seen their logo painted on my local high street.

    Truly we are living through a political revolution.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @Benpointer said:
    > > @MaxPB said:
    >
    > > Just read that Labour want to end the youth minimum wage. Truly an idiotic move. There's a huge incentive for employers to take on inexperienced young people at the moment and we've seen youth unemployment drop to around 10%.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > If I ran a small business I would save up to £5k in a year from hiring someone aged between 18 and 24. It's a massive, massive incentive. Take that away and young people will be competing in a much tougher environment where people will already bring much more experience and be paid the same.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It's a rubbish policy that's going to hurt young people and increase youth unemployment.
    >
    >
    >
    > Reducing NI contributions on the young would be a better idea.
    >
    > Completely agree. Also equalise NI for the old. That's a huge injustice. Wealthy older workers are paying less tax but require a much larger share of healthcare resources that the young.
    >
    > What about those (and I am one of them) with investment income that attracts no NI? We should roll NI into Income tax and have a level playing field for all income.

    Which is why reducing NI is a better way of helping young workers than reducing income tax.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    MaxPB said:

    > @MaxPB said:

    > Just read that Labour want to end the youth minimum wage. Truly an idiotic move. There's a huge incentive for employers to take on inexperienced young people at the moment and we've seen youth unemployment drop to around 10%.

    >

    > If I ran a small business I would save up to £5k in a year from hiring someone aged between 18 and 24. It's a massive, massive incentive. Take that away and young people will be competing in a much tougher environment where people will already bring much more experience and be paid the same.

    >

    > It's a rubbish policy that's going to hurt young people and increase youth unemployment.



    Reducing NI contributions on the young would be a better idea.

    Completely agree. Also equalise NI for the old. That's a huge injustice. Wealthy older workers are paying less tax but require a much larger share of healthcare resources that the young.
    What about those (and I am one of them) with investment income that attracts no NI? We should roll NI into Income tax and have a level playing field for all income.
    Getting rid of NI has been on every Chancellor’s “too difficult” list for decades now. Hopefully we’ll soon have a Chancellor like Michael Gove or Liz Truss, with the guts to massively simply personal and employment taxation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    > @Benpointer said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    >
    > > You're correct. 52% of adults are homeowners. This figure peaked at 58% in 2003. A further 13% are either students, or adults living with their parents. However, the decline ended in about 2014.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > So even if you just take adults alone rather than households a majority are still property owners, thankyou
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Is it fair to describe 52% as a majority?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Surely more accurate to conclude that the country is split down the middle between those who own property and those who do not.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Home ownership is the 'will of the people'. No need to worry about the silly feckers who choose to rent - they lost.
    >
    >
    >
    > Now we just need to figure out what everyone meant by 'Home'. A studio flat or a country estate?
    >
    >
    >
    > Or is No Home better than a Bad Home?
    >
    > Home mean's Home

    Bollocks to Bedsits
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    > > You're correct. 52% of adults are homeowners. This figure peaked at 58% in 2003. A further 13% are either students, or adults living with their parents. However, the decline ended in about 2014.
    > >
    > > So even if you just take adults alone rather than households a majority are still property owners, thankyou
    > >
    > > Is it fair to describe 52% as a majority?
    > >
    > > Surely more accurate to conclude that the country is split down the middle between those who own property and those who do not.
    > >
    > > Home ownership is the 'will of the people'. No need to worry about the silly feckers who choose to rent - they lost.
    >
    > Now we just need to figure out what everyone meant by 'Home'. A studio flat or a country estate?
    >
    > Or is No Home better than a Bad Home?

    Will renters be demanding a 'People's Vote' to nab the mansion down the road?

    Will the home owners party be coming?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678


    Home mean's Home

    I think the British public has had enough of estate agents....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, I think Corbyn wants to get rid of NI.

    Ahem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    > @Sean_F said:
    > IMHO, house prices will stagnate for a long while to come.
    >

    If you look at the UK's population pyramid, you see more people of an age when they're looking for a smaller home, and fewer looking for a larger one.

    However, thanks to stamp duty, it often makes little sense to trade down, because of what you'll pay in transaction fees.

    In consequence, we have a decidedly inefficient use of housing in the UK.

    Still: that inverted population pyramid means long-term downward pressure on housing prices.

    Which is both good and bad. It's good in that in enables more people to buy homes. But it's bad because a large chunk of the British population's only significant savings are their homes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Labours Remainers now deserting the party going by the latest Opinium polls.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited May 2019
    Corbyn's £10 youth minimum wage is consistent with his policies generally. Buy votes with no care on the economic consequences, indeed if he even understands them

    He and McDonnell are a real threat to everyone's financial well being from finishing off youth employment to higher inflation and higher interest rates. Add in the hair brain scheme to steal the water companies and de list companies not following their manic climate change policies, thereby crashing everyone's pensions and at the same time company investment fleeing out of the country leaving a Venezeula style economy and as they continue to live and own multi million pound properties and enjoy an elite lifestyle

    The country can elect anyone as far as I am concerned other than this lunatic marxist cabal
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    FPT and for Mr. Glenn:

    Our local Thai restaurant do a very nice pineapple fried rice. The rice dish is actually in a hollowed out pineapple.

    There is a Dominos not far either. I'm sure I could persuade them to merge and create a favourite dish for TSE of pineapple fried rice pizza.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127247176856416256

    As I have said before if the Tories do not take us out of the EU by the next general election they risk being overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main opposition to Labour
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Voters deserting the Cons in droves.

    And they deserve it - incompetent, cowardly and a terrible leader.

    Hardly rocket science is it ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127247641098825729

    Brexit Party far ahead and LDs overtake the Tories by 1% in the European Parliament elections poll
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    HYUFD said:


    Yes and a mathematical fact.

    As I said more people now own property still in the UK than all the post war years up until 1990

    OK noted and agreed.

    But my point is that sometimes a description can be accurate but misleading.

    For example - the Conservatives 'won' the 2017 general election.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I'm surprised that the Greens are up as well as the Lib Dems in the Opinium Poll.

    I assume the general election polling is garbage as affected by the European election polling and we should expect it to unwind somewhat after the Euro elections.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    > @AndyJS said:
    > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent

    That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited May 2019
    > @kinabalu said:
    > Yes and a mathematical fact.
    >
    > As I said more people now own property still in the UK than all the post war years up until 1990
    >
    > OK noted and agreed.
    >
    > But my point is that sometimes a description can be accurate but misleading.
    >
    > For example - the Conservatives 'won' the 2017 general election.

    They win in 2017 in GB but not the UK.

    I agree more needs to be done to get younger people on the housing ladder and help renters my point is the picture is it as bad as it is sometimes made out to be
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: pre-race tosh will be up tomorrow. Ladbrokes still only have half, if that, of their markets up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    > @Sean_F said:
    > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.

    If Corbyn does not commit to back EUref2 and May does not take us out of the EU by October certainly possible
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Benpointer said:
    > > > You're correct. 52% of adults are homeowners. This figure peaked at 58% in 2003. A further 13% are either students, or adults living with their parents. However, the decline ended in about 2014.
    > > >
    > > > So even if you just take adults alone rather than households a majority are still property owners, thankyou
    > > >
    > > > Is it fair to describe 52% as a majority?
    > > >
    > > > Surely more accurate to conclude that the country is split down the middle between those who own property and those who do not.
    > > >
    > > > Home ownership is the 'will of the people'. No need to worry about the silly feckers who choose to rent - they lost.
    > >
    > > Now we just need to figure out what everyone meant by 'Home'. A studio flat or a country estate?
    > >
    > > Or is No Home better than a Bad Home?
    >
    > Will renters be demanding a 'People's Vote' to nab the mansion down the road?
    >
    > Will the home owners party be coming?

    We've already got a home owners party. They call themselves Residents Association.
  • This feels very much like those few weeks following 18 September 2014 , watching the polls roll in and Scottish Labour slowly , then rapidly, starting to go under.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @Sean_F said:
    > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.

    I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.

    I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members

    It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults

    If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.

    However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    >
    > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.

    People are simply trying to make their preferences consistent across two questions. Plus no doutb the supplementaries focussed on Brexit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    >
    > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.

    When were the Tories last on 22% for a Westminster poll?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    Sandpit said:


    Getting rid of NI has been on every Chancellor’s “too difficult” list for decades now. Hopefully we’ll soon have a Chancellor like Michael Gove or Liz Truss, with the guts to massively simply personal and employment taxation.

    I agree the simplification point - but the guts will be demonstrated by putting overall taxes UP rather than cutting them. Both Truss and Gove would flunk it.

    Truss definitely would. She's a low tax fanatic. Tax under her would be skimpy to the point of indecency.

    For higher and better taxes we need Johnny Mac.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > >
    > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    >
    > When were the Tories last on 22% for a Westminster poll?

    When were they last on 11% in a national poll? :o
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited May 2019
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > >
    > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    >
    > When were the Tories last on 22% for a Westminster poll?

    And when were labour last on 28%

    The EU poll is now no deal brexit v remain and neither main party has an answer
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,544
    Excellent article, David.

    I think the truth is that in a FPTP system, there isn’t really room for multiple parties of the centre. The new group might have had a brief opportunity to supplant the LibDems, but that is almost certainly gone.
    What is fairly futile is either of them trying to establish a ‘niche’ as you suggest. A successful party of the centre will have to be a fairly broad coalition, not an occupier of a exclusive niche.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Opinium indicating it is nip and tuck between UKIP and ChUK for the wooden spoon.

    Would be good if the Tories ended up behind the Greens to finish 5th. Let's make it happen.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > >
    > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    >
    > People are simply trying to make their preferences consistent across two questions. Plus no doutb the supplementaries focussed on Brexit.

    I agree, the Westminster poll is just fantasy as this moment.

    A 13% win in the European Elections would be a massive win for Farage though and puts a no deal exit back in the picture.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    I assume the general election polling is garbage as affected by the European election polling and we should expect it to unwind somewhat after the Euro elections.

    While normally I would agree, that conventional wisdom is born of a time when governments looked vaguely competent. I'm not sure there's a way anymore that the Tories can extricate themselves from this mess.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > > >
    > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    > >
    > > When were the Tories last on 22% for a Westminster poll?
    >
    > And when were labour last on 28%
    >
    > The EU poll is now no deal brexit v remain and neither main party has an answer

    Labour were somewhere near there in the run up to 2017 I think. For the Tories, I can’t quite recall them getting that low even in the 90s.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @RobD said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127247641098825729
    >
    >
    >
    > Ave_it was right :o

    We really need to start taking him more seriously.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Artist said:
    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > > >
    > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    > >
    > > People are simply trying to make their preferences consistent across two questions. Plus no doutb the supplementaries focussed on Brexit.
    >
    > I agree, the Westminster poll is just fantasy as this moment.
    >
    > A 13% win in the European Elections would be a massive win for Farage though and puts a no deal exit back in the picture.

    Unless the BP poll over 50% then it’s not the will of the people !!! Lol anyway apparently over a third of those polled didn’t know the Tory stance on Brexit. I can understand the confusion on Labour but really how can people not know.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority

    A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Artist said:
    > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > > > >
    > > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    > > >
    > > > People are simply trying to make their preferences consistent across two questions. Plus no doutb the supplementaries focussed on Brexit.
    > >
    > > I agree, the Westminster poll is just fantasy as this moment.
    > >
    > > A 13% win in the European Elections would be a massive win for Farage though and puts a no deal exit back in the picture.
    >
    > Unless the BP poll over 50% then it’s not the will of the people !!! Lol anyway apparently over a third of those polled didn’t know the Tory stance on Brexit. I can understand the confusion on Labour but really how can people not know.
    >
    >

    People have every right to say that they don't know the Tory stance. If we reach the next deadline without a deal, will we No Deal Brexit or Revoke? I've no idea, so why should anyone else?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Artist said:
    > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > > > >
    > > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    > > >
    > > > People are simply trying to make their preferences consistent across two questions. Plus no doutb the supplementaries focussed on Brexit.
    > >
    > > I agree, the Westminster poll is just fantasy as this moment.
    > >
    > > A 13% win in the European Elections would be a massive win for Farage though and puts a no deal exit back in the picture.
    >
    > Unless the BP poll over 50% then it’s not the will of the people !!! Lol anyway apparently over a third of those polled didn’t know the Tory stance on Brexit. I can understand the confusion on Labour but really how can people not know.
    >
    The problem is that the Conservative Party has so many stances, all at the same time, and all of them different. If only the Conservative Party had somebody who could give them a bit of leadership, and unite them!
  • > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority
    >
    > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.

    Remain (in both the UK and EU) vote is polling 44%.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority
    >
    > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.

    Over half the Tory vote is their Remainers , the other half are Leavers still sticking with the party .
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > I assume the general election polling is garbage as affected by the European election polling and we should expect it to unwind somewhat after the Euro elections.
    >
    > While normally I would agree, that conventional wisdom is born of a time when governments looked vaguely competent. I'm not sure there's a way anymore that the Tories can extricate themselves from this mess.

    The Brexit TV this week should kill except for Raab who couldn't have wished for a better endorsement.

    How could any Tory think May staying in place one day after the EU elections is sensible, unless they have become a death cult.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited May 2019
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > > @Artist said:
    > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
    > > > > >
    > > > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    > > > >
    > > > > People are simply trying to make their preferences consistent across two questions. Plus no doutb the supplementaries focussed on Brexit.
    > > >
    > > > I agree, the Westminster poll is just fantasy as this moment.
    > > >
    > > > A 13% win in the European Elections would be a massive win for Farage though and puts a no deal exit back in the picture.
    > >
    > > Unless the BP poll over 50% then it’s not the will of the people !!! Lol anyway apparently over a third of those polled didn’t know the Tory stance on Brexit. I can understand the confusion on Labour but really how can people not know.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > People have every right to say that they don't know the Tory stance. If we reach the next deadline without a deal, will we No Deal Brexit or Revoke? I've no idea, so why should anyone else?

    On these figures the trend to no deal is rising rapidly. The conservatives at 11% must be near the floor but labour at 21% could go down further to both Brexit Party and Lib Dems.

    This result, if confirmed, with anti EU sentiment across Europe is going to cause an earthquake in Brussels
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority
    >
    > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.

    And Leave's message will be very clear: 'tell them again', 'no means no'... the slogans just write themselves.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > Corbyn's £10 youth minimum wage is consistent with his policies generally. Buy votes with no care on the economic consequences, indeed if he even understands them
    >
    > He and McDonnell are a real threat to everyone's financial well being from finishing off youth employment to higher inflation and higher interest rates. Add in the hair brain scheme to steal the water companies and de list companies not following their manic climate change policies, thereby crashing everyone's pensions and at the same time company investment fleeing out of the country leaving a Venezeula style economy and as they continue to live and own multi million pound properties and enjoy an elite lifestyle
    >
    > The country can elect anyone as far as I am concerned other than this lunatic marxist cabal

    I remember similar arguments being made against having a minimum wage at all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
    >
    > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
    >
    > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
    >
    > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
    >
    > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
    >
    > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
    >
    >
    Thanks BigG and I will be joining you still in the elite band of Tory European elections voters
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    > @Sean_F said:

    > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.



    I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.



    I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members



    It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults



    If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.



    However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all

    You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?

    Hilarious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > > @Benpointer said:
    > > > > You're correct. 52% of adults are homeowners. This figure peaked at 58% in 2003. A further 13% are either students, or adults living with their parents. However, the decline ended in about 2014.
    > > > >
    > > > > So even if you just take adults alone rather than households a majority are still property owners, thankyou
    > > > >
    > > > > Is it fair to describe 52% as a majority?
    > > > >
    > > > > Surely more accurate to conclude that the country is split down the middle between those who own property and those who do not.
    > > > >
    > > > > Home ownership is the 'will of the people'. No need to worry about the silly feckers who choose to rent - they lost.
    > > >
    > > > Now we just need to figure out what everyone meant by 'Home'. A studio flat or a country estate?
    > > >
    > > > Or is No Home better than a Bad Home?
    > >
    > > Will renters be demanding a 'People's Vote' to nab the mansion down the road?
    > >
    > > Will the home owners party be coming?
    >
    > We've already got a home owners party. They call themselves Residents Association.

    The NIMBY Party yes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > Corbyn's £10 youth minimum wage is consistent with his policies generally. Buy votes with no care on the economic consequences, indeed if he even understands them
    > >
    > > He and McDonnell are a real threat to everyone's financial well being from finishing off youth employment to higher inflation and higher interest rates. Add in the hair brain scheme to steal the water companies and de list companies not following their manic climate change policies, thereby crashing everyone's pensions and at the same time company investment fleeing out of the country leaving a Venezeula style economy and as they continue to live and own multi million pound properties and enjoy an elite lifestyle
    > >
    > > The country can elect anyone as far as I am concerned other than this lunatic marxist cabal
    >
    > I remember similar arguments being made against having a minimum wage at all

    There was a quite compelling argument below that having a lower one for younger people was a good incentive to get businesses to higher less experienced people. If you make it all the same, that incentive is gone.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority
    > >
    > > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.
    >
    > Over half the Tory vote is their Remainers , the other half are Leavers still sticking with the party .
    >
    >
    >

    I want to leave with TM deal and reject Farage, hence why I voted conservative. There must be a lot of mps in both main parties very worried at these figures
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20

    And yet parliament refuses to allow any other options (let's not kid ourselves, referendum is to remain)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20

    I'm actually looking forward to referendum 2 now. :smiley:
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    It's notable that when the focus is on Brexit, the electorate is moving sharply away from parties with a compromise/centrist position on that issue (Conservative and Labour). More indication that moving to the centre is a vote-loser
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @Streeter said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    >
    > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
    >
    >
    >
    > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
    >
    >
    >
    > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
    >
    >
    >
    > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
    >
    >
    >
    > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
    >
    >
    >
    > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
    >
    > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
    >
    > Hilarious.

    You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    edited May 2019
    .

    > @AndyJS said:

    >





    That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
    My theory is that good polling/Euro election win for The Brexit Party is the new No Deal, except this time Westminster can only make it go away by passing the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @RobD said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    >
    > I'm actually looking forward to referendum 2 now. :smiley:

    We need to see the question .

    For example as a Remainer I think it would be unacceptable to stay in the EU without a second vote . So revoke and remain I would not support .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    edited May 2019
    > @Streeter said:
    You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
    >
    > Hilarious.


    I always thought (the grimness of the situation aside) that much entertainment woould be had from Tories gradually accomodating themselves to the prospect of Boris.

    Prediction: Ruth Davidson next to discover that Boris isn't quite the most ghastly option.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    It might be worth a bet on the Lib Dems having over 20 MPs this summer. If ChUK do this badly in the European elections then a merger might be their only hope.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1127254119469731846

    Yeah right. That would be annoying for them but any win would be impressive enough.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    isam said:
    If TBP don't get 100% of the vote it's proof the people have changed their minds and want to remain!

    Am I doing this right?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Streeter said:
    > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
    > >
    > > Hilarious.
    >
    >
    > I always thought (the grimness of the situation aside) that much entertainment woould be had from Tories gradually accomodating themselves to the prospect of Boris.
    >
    > Prediction: Ruth Davidson next to discover that Boris isn't quite the most ghastly option.

    It will only be acceptable if Boris wins the vote through the hustings with others, maybe a dozen or more, and by the eventual votes of the membership
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    From the sound of it, the last thing the Brexit Party wants is to win power. It's just a glorified pressure group.

    https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1127193926434283520
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    > >
    > > I'm actually looking forward to referendum 2 now. :smiley:
    >
    > We need to see the question .
    >
    > For example as a Remainer I think it would be unacceptable to stay in the EU without a second vote . So revoke and remain I would not support .

    You need to get with the times, revoke is more the rage these days. And it does make more logical sense against many of the arguments. After all, if the main reason for wanting remain is people have changed their minds then sure, a referendum makes sense, but if the justification is that Brexit, any Brexit, makes the country weaker and is just plain bad, then how can it be ok to risk it in a referendum again, even if they think (rightly in my view) that remain would win?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721

    isam said:
    If TBP don't get 100% of the vote it's proof the people have changed their minds and want to remain!

    Am I doing this right?
    If a brand new party with no policies only wins the upcoming election by 5-6% its obviously them who have to worry...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    > @williamglenn said:
    > It might be worth a bet on the Lib Dems having over 20 MPs this summer. If ChUK do this badly in the European elections then a merger might be their only hope.

    I did pose the question awhile ago on whether there was a market on which of the Tiggers would defect somewhere else first. Not a commentary on then really, just that if you defect once it is easier to do so again.

    Given how some of them have slagged off the LDs then I doubt all would join them, certainly after having been chastened by them, so on your proposition even if most do do that eventually I think some might go the independent route first, so by this summer might be too soon.
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 2019
    Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1125319073712230400?s=20

    He knows who to win over to make it easy for her to quit. Perhaps poety will work on the spartans and the grievers where everything else has failed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > > @RobD said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    > > >
    > > > I'm actually looking forward to referendum 2 now. :smiley:
    > >
    > > We need to see the question .
    > >
    > > For example as a Remainer I think it would be unacceptable to stay in the EU without a second vote . So revoke and remain I would not support .
    >
    > You need to get with the times, revoke is more the rage these days. And it does make more logical sense against many of the arguments. After all, if the main reason for wanting remain is people have changed their minds then sure, a referendum makes sense, but if the justification is that Brexit, any Brexit, makes the country weaker and is just plain bad, then how can it be ok to risk it in a referendum again, even if they think (rightly in my view) that remain would win?

    I just cannot see a path to revoke without a referendum, especially in view of this weekends polling
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > > @RobD said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    > > >
    > > > I'm actually looking forward to referendum 2 now. :smiley:
    > >
    > > We need to see the question .
    > >
    > > For example as a Remainer I think it would be unacceptable to stay in the EU without a second vote . So revoke and remain I would not support .
    >
    > You need to get with the times, revoke is more the rage these days. And it does make more logical sense against many of the arguments. After all, if the main reason for wanting remain is people have changed their minds then sure, a referendum makes sense, but if the justification is that Brexit, any Brexit, makes the country weaker and is just plain bad, then how can it be ok to risk it in a referendum again, even if they think (rightly in my view) that remain would win?

    No I’d rather have Brexit than MPs just revoking . If people vote again and decide to Remain that’s acceptable but democratically it would be terrible to just say we’ve cancelled Brexit . I think you’d find many Remainers agree with my position . I hate Brexit but what started with the people has to end with them .
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    > @Streeter said:

    > > @Sean_F said:

    >

    > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.

    >

    >

    >

    > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.

    >

    >

    >

    > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members

    >

    >

    >

    > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults

    >

    >

    >

    > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.

    >

    >

    >

    > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all

    >

    > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?

    >

    > Hilarious.



    You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this

    The will of which wing of the party? The one that supports Vince or the one that supports Nigel?

    There is no controlling mind any more, it has ceased to function. What passes for life is merely the twitching of its limbs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,725
    kle4 said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    >





    He knows who to win over to make it easy for her to quit. Perhaps poety will work on the spartans and the grievers where everything else has failed.
    If Daniel Hannan had half a brain, he'd be offering May his enthusiastic support. That way, she'd be out by Tuesday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20

    That doesn't square with the polls showing Remain on about 55%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2019

    > @kle4 said:

    > > @nico67 said:

    > > > @RobD said:

    > > > > @HYUFD said:

    > > > >



    > > >

    > > > I'm actually looking forward to referendum 2 now. :smiley:

    > >

    > > We need to see the question .

    > >

    > > For example as a Remainer I think it would be unacceptable to stay in the EU without a second vote . So revoke and remain I would not support .

    >

    > You need to get with the times, revoke is more the rage these days. And it does make more logical sense against many of the arguments. After all, if the main reason for wanting remain is people have changed their minds then sure, a referendum makes sense, but if the justification is that Brexit, any Brexit, makes the country weaker and is just plain bad, then how can it be ok to risk it in a referendum again, even if they think (rightly in my view) that remain would win?



    I just cannot see a path to revoke without a referendum, especially in view of this weekends polling
    Oh, I don't think parliament has the guts to revoke. But when people's principal arguments are no longer about the changing of minds and more things like 'the best deal is the one we already have' and on just how darn bad any Brexit is, it makes more sense than saying, in effect 'Brexit is a tremendously damaging error which we must fight tooth and nail as I have done since the first referendum despite voting to trigger A50...but let's check with the people again and if they are extra sure this time I'll allow this historica disaster to happen'.

    Revoking is clearly what a lot of MPs would prefer to happen, and it has become more acceptable to raise as an option since the petition. It's not there yet, you still have some people rather lamely suggest 'Oh let's revoke and then we can try to Brexit again when we are sure what option we want, we promise' which is downright insulting in its disingenuousness, but it might get there if we remain in limbo long enough. I don't think it the most likely option though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @Streeter said:
    > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > > > @Sean_F said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
    >
    > >
    >
    > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Hilarious.
    >
    >
    >
    > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
    >
    > The will of which wing of the party? The one that supports Vince or the one that supports Nigel?
    >
    > There is no controlling mind any more, it has ceased to function. What passes for life is merely the twitching of its limbs.

    Watch this space
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    >
    > That doesn't square with the polls showing Remain on about 55%.

    Ironically TM deal squares the circle
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    > @Streeter said:

    You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?

    >

    > Hilarious.





    I always thought (the grimness of the situation aside) that much entertainment woould be had from Tories gradually accomodating themselves to the prospect of Boris.



    Prediction: Ruth Davidson next to discover that Boris isn't quite the most ghastly option.

    And Rudd finding that Boris is quite a skilful driver after all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Streeter said:

    > @Streeter said:

    You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?

    >

    > Hilarious.





    I always thought (the grimness of the situation aside) that much entertainment woould be had from Tories gradually accomodating themselves to the prospect of Boris.



    Prediction: Ruth Davidson next to discover that Boris isn't quite the most ghastly option.

    And Rudd finding that Boris is quite a skilful driver after all.
    IIRC it was reported a few months ago that Boris and Rudd were considering a team up for the leadership, so she already has.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    > @thecommissioner said:
    > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3.

    https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf

    Labour - 311
    Conservatives - 218
    SNP - 55
    Lib Dems - 22
    Brexit - 21
    Plaid - 4
    Green - 1
    NI - 18
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    BETTING POST

    If anyone wants some free money, Betfair/PP still have their over/under line on CHUK seats at the EU elections as 6.5. 6 or fewer is looking pretty damn safe right now...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,725
    edited May 2019
    tlg86 said:

    > @thecommissioner said:

    > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3.



    https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf



    Labour - 311

    Conservatives - 218

    SNP - 55

    Lib Dems - 22

    Brexit - 21

    Plaid - 4

    Green - 1

    NI - 18

    I wouldn't bother Baxtering those. At such huge changes there is no extant model that would realistically predict the outcome.

    Talking of no model and lack of realism, do we have any progress on Vanilla yet?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    >
    > That doesn't square with the polls showing Remain on about 55%.

    If you look at the EU election polling the 74% figure can’t be right to a simple question there must be something added on otherwise the BP would have polled much higher .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @Streeter said:
    >
    > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Hilarious.
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > I always thought (the grimness of the situation aside) that much entertainment woould be had from Tories gradually accomodating themselves to the prospect of Boris.
    >
    >
    >
    > Prediction: Ruth Davidson next to discover that Boris isn't quite the most ghastly option.
    >
    > And Rudd finding that Boris is quite a skilful driver after all.
    >
    > IIRC it was reported a few months ago that Boris and Rudd were considering a team up for the leadership, so she already has.

    Apparently first female COE under a Boris government
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    > @Gardenwalker said:



    > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.





    Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.



    Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?



    Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?



    It was Glamorgan.



    What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?



    English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.



    Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.

    100% Correct
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
    >
    > That doesn't square with the polls showing Remain on about 55%.

    What's happening with the EU polls is a steady rise in certainty to vote among Leave voters. I expect you'd see the same if there were a second referendum.
This discussion has been closed.